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At least 613 records · Page 34

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Computational Experiment Design for Operations Model Simulation

Computer simulations that demonstrate the value of novel approaches are crucial to developing more flexible and robust power systems operations with high penetrations of renewable energy at multiple geographic and temporal scales. However, optimization-based simulations that depend on forecast data often face challenges in evaluating performance, reproducing results, and testing under realistic simulation scenarios. In this paper, we develop scientific computing best-practices for the validation and reproduction of power systems operational models. We then employ two case studies to demonstrate the proposed validation and reproduction framework.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗

A Modeling Tool to Analyze the Performance of Industrial Cooling Towers

Energy efficiency and energy savings have become an important factor as industries look for ways to save energy and minimize their energy consumption while reducing their carbon footprint. Cooling towers are utilized significantly in industries for either serving chillers or process cooling. Depending on the size of the cooling tower, it can use a surprising amount of energy and water, which is why it is crucial to make sure that the facility has optimized their cooling tower.A modeling tool has been developed to perform a thorough analysis of a cooling tower and its various operations to ensure that the facility has optimized its cooling tower. This model analyzes an annual base case in comparison with the revised case of a cooling tower operation. This modeling tool simulates 8,760 hourly calculations for fan power for various fan controls, water consumption, and pumping energy consumption and demand based on the user’s location and its corresponding Typical Meteorological Year 3 (TMY3) weather data. This model is capable to simulate up to five cooling tower cells as one large tower utilizing one pump or parallel pumping. The successful validated cooling tower model should assist industry to save energy at their facility through their cooling tower, whether they use it for process cooling or heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) applications. The entering/leaving water temperatures based on a monthly operating schedule or a wet-bulb temperature schedule will be used as inputs, and the model can calculate savings in energy for various conditions including variable-frequency drive (VFD) on the fan/pump, drift eliminators, number of cycles of concentration, reduced water flow rate, etc.

Hooper, Josh↗

Deterioration of concrete due to ASR: Experiments and multiscale modeling

The process of ASR (Alkali-Silica Reaction) induced expansion and damage in pavement concrete specimens is investigated using laboratory experiments and computational modeling. In the experimental program, the concrete specimens are subject to CS-CPT (climate simulation concrete prism test) to obtain ASR induced expansion with and without external supply of alkali. The dissolution rates of the granodiorite used in the concrete mix and the gel formation rates are determined under concrete-like conditions (pH 13.8, with/without Ca(OH){sub 2} and NaCl) at different temperatures. A micromechanics based computational model with aggregate-scale diffusion and reaction kinetics coupled to an Eigenstrain based micromechanics damage model is developed for the simulation of ASR induced expansion and damage. Data from the experimental program are used to calibrate and validate the computational model. Model predictions show that for the given concrete mixture, ASR induced expansion in the specimen exposed to water is predominantly governed by microcracking in the aggregate, while the expansion in the specimen subjected to external alkali supply is governed by microcracking in both the aggregates and the cement paste.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

First principles reaction discovery: from the Schrodinger equation to experimental prediction for methane pyrolysis

Our recent success in exploiting graphical processing units (GPUs) to accelerate quantum chemistry computations led to the development of the ab initio nanoreactor, a computational framework for automatic reaction discovery and kinetic model construction. In this work, we apply the ab initio nanoreactor to methane pyrolysis, from automatic reaction discovery to path refinement and kinetic modeling. Elementary reactions occurring during methane pyrolysis are revealed using GPU-accelerated ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. Subsequently, these reaction paths are refined at a higher level of theory with optimized reactant, product, and transition state geometries. Reaction rate coefficients are calculated by transition state theory based on the optimized reaction paths. The discovered reactions lead to a kinetic model with 53 species and 134 reactions, which is validated against experimental data and simulations using literature kinetic models. We highlight the advantage of leveraging local brute force and Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis approaches for efficient identification of important reactions. Both sensitivity approaches can further improve the accuracy of the methane pyrolysis kinetic model. The results in this work demonstrate the power of the ab initio nanoreactor framework for computationally affordable systematic reaction discovery and accurate kinetic modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Model Development and Analysis of a High-Fidelity Neutron Transport Sensor: The Quadrupole Detector Concept for Measurement of the Neutron Flux Gradient

Accurate reconstruction of the neutron flux distribution within a reactor core is essential for safe and efficient reactor operation. Traditional power shape synthesis in Light Water Reactors relies on hundreds of in-core detectors. However, this approach becomes impractical for Advanced Reactors and Microreactors due to limited space and harsh environments. To address this challenge, we propose a data-driven methodology that combines high-fidelity modeling with real-time ex-core sensor measurements, enabling the reconstruction of core power distribution while minimizing the reliance on intrusive in-core instrumentation. This project began in FY24 and achieved two initial milestones: (1) the definition of a three-year development plan for a Digital Twin framework and (2) the development of high-fidelity neutronics models of the Purdue University Reactor One (PUR-1) using both MCNP6 and OpenMC. The PUR-1 reactor, a zero-power facility, was selected due to its suitability for neutronics-focused modeling and the availability of experimental data for validation. Both models were benchmarked using neutron flux measurements obtained from irradiated gold foils, which were strategically placed within the core during a dedicated campaign in July 2024. This report marks the continuation and completion of those foundational tasks. The OpenMC model has been refined (improved geometric accuracy, expanded cross-section libraries, and refined sampling) and validated using additional experimental data. An updated sensor design—based on quadrupole configuration—was designed to measure both ex-core flux and its spatial gradient. These measurements will serve as inputs to a neural network-based reconstruction algorithm. Finally, the methodology was demonstrated on a two-dimensional test case representative of the heterogeneous material composition of the PUR-1 reactor core. A neural network implementation of the Kirchhoff-Helmholtz integral equation was employed to solve the boundary value problem using peripheral sensor measurements. The preliminary results confirm the strong potential of the proposed approach for accurate and minimally invasive neutron flux reconstruction.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Application Potential of a Dew-Point Cooling Tower in Selected Energy Intensive Applications in Temperate Climate

In the article, the application potential of the dew-point cooling tower (DPCT) in selected energy-intensive applications in temperate climates was analyzed and discussed. The applications selected for analysis are power generation with natural gas turbines and chilled water air conditioning systems. The study is based on a mathematical model derived from a modified ε-NTU model. The model was validated against experimental results and showed satisfactory agreement with the experimental data. DPCT was compared with a typical cooling tower limited by the wet-bulb temperature (wet-bulb cooling tower, WBCT). The simulation results showed that DPCT is able to provide significant energy savings in energy-intensive applications; therefore, its application potential in temperate climates can be considered justified. In the case of gas turbines, DPCT was able to generate 2 to 10 percentage points more capacity than operating on outdoor air and 1.8 to 5 percentage points more than operating with WBCT. In the case of air conditioning systems, the system equipped with DPCT achieved EERs (energy efficiency ratios) higher by 1 to 7.2 compared to dry cooling and by 0.3 to 5.1 compared to systems equipped with WBCT. The annual energy savings obtained by the system with DPCT were 14.7 MWh compared to WBCT and 30 MWh compared to dry cooling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Mathematical model of the SH-3G helicopter

A mathematical model of the Sikorsky SH-3G helicopter based on classical nonlinear, quasi-steady rotor theory was developed. The model was validated statically and dynamically by comparison with Navy flight-test data. The model incorporates ad hoc revisions which address the ideal assumptions of classical rotor theory and improve the static trim characteristics to provide a more realistic simulation, while retaining the simplicity of the classical model.

Phillips, J. D.↗

Improved inhalation technology for setting safe exposure levels for workplace chemicals

Threshold Limit Values recommended as allowable air concentrations of a chemical in the workplace are often based upon a no-observable-effect-level (NOEL) determined by experimental inhalation studies using rodents. A 'safe level' for human exposure must then be estimated by the use of generalized safety factors in attempts to extrapolate from experimental rodents to man. The recent development of chemical-specific physiologically-based toxicokinetics makes use of measured physiological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters to construct a validated model that is able to 'scale-up' rodent response data to predict the behavior of the chemical in man. This procedure is made possible by recent advances in personal computer software and the emergence of appropriate biological data, and provides an analytical tool for much more reliable risk evaluation and airborne chemical exposure level setting for humans.

Stuart, Bruce O.↗

Comparison of Organ Dose and Dose Equivalent Using Ray Tracing of Male and Female Voxel Phantoms to Space Flight Phantom Torso Data

Phantom torso experiments have been flown on the space shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) providing validation data for radiation transport models of organ dose and dose equivalents. We describe results for space radiation organ doses using a new human geometry model based on detailed Voxel phantoms models denoted for males and females as MAX (Male Adult voXel) and Fax (Female Adult voXel), respectively. These models represent the human body with much higher fidelity than the CAMERA model currently used at NASA. The MAX and FAX models were implemented for the evaluation of directional body shielding mass for over 1500 target points of major organs. Radiation exposure to solar particle events (SPE), trapped protons, and galactic cosmic rays (GCR) were assessed at each specific site in the human body by coupling space radiation transport models with the detailed body shielding mass of MAX/FAX phantom. The development of multiple-point body-shielding distributions at each organ site made it possible to estimate the mean and variance of space dose equivalents at the specific organ. For the estimate of doses to the blood forming organs (BFOs), active marrow distributions in adult were accounted at bone marrow sites over the human body. We compared the current model results to space shuttle and ISS phantom torso experiments and to calculations using the CAMERA model.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Exploring the Limits of High Altitude GPS for Future Lunar Missions

An increasing number of spacecraft are relying on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation at altitudes near or above the GPS constellation itself - the region known as the Space Service Volume (SSV). While the formal definition of the SSV ends at geostationary altitude, the practical limit of high-altitude space usage is not known, and recent missions have demonstrated that signal availability is sufficient for operational navigation at altitudes halfway to the moon. This paper presents simulation results based on a high-fidelity model of the GPS constellation, calibrated and validated through comparisons of simulated GPS signal availability and strength with flight data from recent high-altitude missions including the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16) and the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. This improved model is applied to the transfer to a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) of the class being considered for the international Deep Space Gateway concept. The number of GPS signals visible and their received signal strengths are presented as a function of receiver altitude in order to explore the practical upper limit of high-altitude space usage of GPS.

Deep Spac↗

Exploring the Limits of High Altitude GPS for Future Lunar Missions

An increasing number of spacecraft are relying on the Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation at altitudes near or above the GPS constellation itself - the region known as the Space Service Volume (SSV). While the formal definition of the SSV ends at geostationary altitude, the practical limit of high-altitude space usage is not known, and recent missions have demonstrated that signal availability is sufficient for operational navigation at altitudes halfway to the moon. This paper presents simulation results based on a high-fidelity model of the GPS constellation, calibrated and validated through comparisons of simulated GPS signal availability and strength with flight data from recent high-altitude missions including the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 16 (GOES-16) and the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission. This improved model is applied to the transfer to a lunar near-rectilinear halo orbit (NRHO) of the class being con- sidered for the international Deep Space Gateway concept. The number of GPS signals visible and their received signal strengths are presented as a function of receiver altitude in order to explore the practical upper limit of high-altitude space usage of GPS.

Deep Spac↗

Physics-Based Retrieval of Surface Roughness Parameters for Bare Soils from Combined Active-Passive Microwave Signatures

In the past the effect of soil roughness was often considered secondary within the determination of soil moisture from remote sensing data. Several studies showed that accurate determination of soil roughness leads to an improved estimation of soil moisture. Two default parameters to describe the surface roughness are the standard deviation of the surface height variation 𝑠 and the surface correlation length 𝑙 with its corresponding autocorrelation function. Both parameters (𝑠,𝑙) affect the emissivity measured by radiometers as well as the backscattering observed by radars. In this study, we develop a physics-based approach to retrieve 𝑠 and 𝑙 by combining both microwave signals based on active-passive microwave covariation. To test the approach, containing a forward model and a retrieval algorithm, we used active/passive microwave data measured with the ComRAD truck-based SMAP simulator at L-band. Results and validations with corresponding field measurements on ground show that 𝑠 and 𝑙 can be estimated simultaneously when using this approach. The physics-based retrieval algorithm works robustly for two investigated test fields having an RMS-Error of 0.68 cm and 0.69 cm between the microwave-based and field-measured 𝑠-values, and of 3.13 cm and 3.04 cm for 𝑙-values. The first validation of the results reveals that the influence of the autocorrelation function, needed within the retrieval, is distinct.

correlation length↗

Quantifying Boreal Forest Structure and Composition Using UAV Structure from Motion

The vast extent and inaccessibility of boreal forest ecosystems are barriers to routine monitoring of forest structure and composition. In this research, we bridge the scale gap between intensive but sparse plot measurements and extensive remote sensing studies by collecting forest inventory variables at the plot scale using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a structure from motion (SfM) approach. At 20 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) subplots in interior Alaska, we acquired overlapping imagery and generated dense, 3D, RGB (red, green, blue) point clouds. We used these data to model forest type at the individual crown scale as well as subplot-scale tree density (TD), basal area (BA), and aboveground biomass (AGB). We achieved 85% cross-validation accuracy for five species at the crown level. Classification accuracy was maximized using three variables representing crown height, form, and color. Consistent with previous UAV-based studies, SfM point cloud data generated robust models of TD (r(sup 2) = 0.91), BA (r(sup 2) = 0.79), and AGB (r(sup 2) = 0.92), using a mix of plot- and crown-scale information. Precise estimation of TD required either segment counts or species information to differentiate black spruce from mixed white spruce plots. The accuracy of species-specific estimates of TD, BA, and AGB at the plot scale was somewhat variable, ranging from accurate estimates of black spruce TD (+/−1%) and aspen BA (−2%) to misallocation of aspen AGB (+118%) and white spruce AGB (−50%). These results convey the potential utility of SfM data for forest type discrimination in FIA plots and the remaining challenges to develop classification approaches for species-specific estimates at the plot scale that are more robust to segmentation error.

aboveground biomass↗

Bringing Back the Social Affordances of the Paper Memo to Aerospace Systems Engineering Work

Model-based systems engineering (MBSE) is a relatively new field that brings together the interdisciplinary study of technological components of a project (systems engineering) with a model-based ontology to express the hierarchical and behavioral relationships between the components (computational modeling). Despite the compelling promises of the benefits of MBSE, such as improved communication and productivity due to an underlying language and data model, we observed hesitation to its adoption at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. To investigate, we conducted a six-month ethnographic field investigation and needs validation with 19 systems engineers. This paper contributes our observations of a generational shift in one of JPL's core technologies. We report on a cultural misunderstanding between communities of practice that bolsters the existing technology drag. Given the high cost of failure, we springboard our observations into a design hypothesis - an intervention that blends the social affordances of the narrative-based work flow with the rich technological advantages of explicit data references and relationships of the model-based approach. We provide a design rationale, and the results of our evaluation.

design↗

Effective Uncertainty Quantification for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Aerosol Remote Sensing Over Ocean

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements can enable detailed characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties and improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere–ocean system. Theoretical pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties based on error propagation have been used to quantify retrieval performance and determine the quality of data products. However, standard error propagation techniques in high-dimensional retrievals may not always represent true retrieval errors well due to issues such as local minima and the nonlinear dependence of the forward model on the retrieved parameters near the solution. In this work, we analyze these theoretical uncertainty estimates and validate them using a flexible Monte Carlo approach. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on efficient neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification on both synthetic HARP2 (Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2) and AirHARP (airborne version of HARP2) datasets. In addition, for practical application of the uncertainty evaluation technique in operational data processing, we use the automatic differentiation method to calculate derivatives analytically based on the neural network models. Both the speed and accuracy associated with uncertainty quantification for MAP retrievals are addressed in this study. Pixel-wise retrieval uncertainties are further evaluated for the real AirHARP field campaign data. The uncertainty quantification methods and results can be used to evaluate the quality of data products, as well as guide MAP algorithm development for current and future satellite systems such as NASA’s Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission.

PACE↗

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗

Scalable deep learning for watershed model calibration

Watershed models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) consist of high-dimensional physical and empirical parameters. These parameters often need to be estimated/calibrated through inverse modeling to produce reliable predictions on hydrological fluxes and states. Existing parameter estimation methods can be time consuming, inefficient, and computationally expensive for high-dimensional problems. In this paper, we present an accurate and robust method to calibrate the SWAT model (i.e., 20 parameters) using scalable deep learning (DL). We developed inverse models based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assimilate observed streamflow data and estimate the SWAT model parameters. Scalable hyperparameter tuning is performed using high-performance computing resources to identify the top 50 optimal neural network architectures. We used ensemble SWAT simulations to train, validate, and test the CNN models. We estimated the parameters of the SWAT model using observed streamflow data and assessed the impact of measurement errors on SWAT model calibration. We tested and validated the proposed scalable DL methodology on the American River Watershed, located in the Pacific Northwest-based Yakima River basin. Our results show that the CNN-based calibration is better than two popular parameter estimation methods (i.e., the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation [GLUE] and the dynamically dimensioned search [DDS], which is a global optimization algorithm). For the set of parameters that are sensitive to the observations, our proposed method yields narrower ranges than the GLUE method but broader ranges than values produced using the DDS method within the sampling range even under high relative observational errors. The SWAT model calibration performance using the CNNs, GLUE, and DDS methods are compared using R 2 and a set of efficiency metrics, including Nash-Sutcliffe, logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe, Kling-Gupta, modified Kling-Gupta, and non-parametric Kling-Gupta scores, computed on the observed and simulated watershed responses. The best CNN-based calibrated set has scores of 0.71, 0.75, 0.85, 0.85, 0.86, and 0.91. The best DDS-based calibrated set has scores of 0.62, 0.69, 0.8, 0.77, 0.79, and 0.82. The best GLUE-based calibrated set has scores of 0.56, 0.58, 0.71, 0.7, 0.71, and 0.8. The scores above show that the CNN-based calibration leads to more accurate low and high streamflow predictions than the GLUE and DDS sets. Our research demonstrates that the proposed method has high potential to improve our current practice in calibrating large-scale integrated hydrologic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗