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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Size-resolved particle and black carbon deposition over the cryosphere (Final Report)

Our project focused on providing observational constraints and investigation of aerosol deposition by performing the first unambiguous direct eddy flux covariance measurements of aerosol dry deposition over the cryosphere. The project aimed to make eddy covariance flux measurements of dry deposition and off-line wet deposition measurements of black carbon containing aerosol plus eddy covariance measurements of size-resolved accumulation mode scattering aerosol over the DOE ARM AMF3 Oliktok Point site in Fall 2020. We aimed to compare our measurements to model parameterizations to constrain uncertainties and systematic bias, and improve deposition parameterizations in models. Due to disruptions in field work from COVID-19, our work was delayed and moved to an alternate site on the North Slope of Alaska. This report summarizes the key findings from the project, including data analysis from previous field projects and from the North Slope of Alaska.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proceedings for the Workshop on Applied Nuclear Data Activities 2024

The Workshop for Applied Nuclear Data Activities (WANDA) is designed to increase communication among nuclear data (ND) users in multidisciplinary federal programs, ND producers, ND funders, and other ND experts. It also presents an opportunity to cross-pollinate ideas as well as introduce ND gaps identified by federal programs to ND experts and ND capabilities to the various federal ND users. WANDA 2024 included five technical sessions, three of which focused on Fusion Energy Sciences (FES)—FES Fusion Neutronics, FES Tritium Production, and FES Material Damage—and two stand-alone sessions—Isotopes and Targetry for Nuclear Data and Uncertainty Quantification. The FES sessions successfully brought new voices to the WANDA discussions, expanding the application space in which nuclear data are critical. FES programs need accurate nuclear data with realistic uncertainty quantification to properly estimate, for example, shielding, activation, tritium production, helium production, structural material integrity, and superconducting magnet operation. This includes a variety of projectile (neutrons, photons, charged particles) and target atoms. One of the action items common to all the FES sessions was a need to perform sensitivity studies to identify the prioritization of nuclear data needs. The Isotopes and Targetry session highlighted the many capabilities available to produce high-quality targets for nuclear data measurements, including 3D printing with spherical powders, combustion synthesis coupled with spin coating & electrospraying, inkjet printing, and isotopic doping. These new methods open doors for more accurate measurement, but it was also stressed that sample characterization following any method of fabrication is of the highest importance to accurately interpret nuclear data measurement results that used that sample. The Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) session was broken into two categories: nuclear data uncertainty quantification and the use of that uncertainty quantification. Thematic to the UQ session was the loss of information when going from nuclear data measurement, to evaluation, to evaluated file, and finally to neutron transport calculations. Current evaluated ND libraries typically only contain covariances, which assume that the probability distributions are Gaussian. Beyond being a simplified assumption for many evaluations, this can lead to negative values on many observables when attempting to sample the covariance. The covariance format, however, is very efficient in that a simple set of linear equations can transform uncertainty from parameters or cross sections to the application of interest. Focused collaboration is needed between nuclear data evaluators and nuclear data users to ensure that needs are being met.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

(U) A Code System for Cross-Section Uncertainty Propagation for PARTISN

A rudimentary code system has been developed for propagating neutron cross-section uncertainties to response uncertainties using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates neutron transport code. The code system uses the first-order sandwich rule with sensitivities computed using SENSMG and covariances computed using NJOY. Databases of reaction cross sections and covariances using ENDF/B-VIII.0 data in the LANL standard 30-group structure have been precalculated. The final uncertainty in a k eff example problem compares well with the result from TOFFEE, a similar code that propagates neutron cross-section uncertainties to response uncertainties using the MCNP6 Monte Carlo neutron transport code. Presently, neither code system propagates uncertainties in $\overline{v}$, $\overline{μ}$, or χ, and neither code system propagates nuclide-nuclide covariances

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Age over sex: evaluating gut microbiota differences in healthy Chinese populations

Age and gender have been recognized as two pivotal covariates affecting the composition of the gut microbiota. However, their mediated variations in microbiota seem to be inconsistent across different countries and races. In this study, 613 individuals, whom we referred to as the “healthy” population, were selected from 1,018 volunteers through rigorous selection using 16S rRNA sequencing. Three enterotypes were identified, namely, Escherichia–Shigella , mixture ( Bacteroides and Faecalibacterium ), and Prevotella . Moreover, 11 covariates that explain the differences in microbiota were determined, with age being the predominant factor. Furthermore, age-related differences in alpha diversity, beta diversity, and core genera were observed in our cohort. Remarkably, after adjusting for 10 covariates other than age, abundant genera that differed between age groups were demonstrated. In contrast, minimal differences in alpha diversity, beta diversity, and differentially abundant genera were observed between male and female individuals. Furthermore, we also demonstrated the age trajectories of several well-known beneficial genera, lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-producing genera, and short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs)-producing genera. Overall, our study further elucidated the effects mediated by age and gender on microbiota differences, which are of significant importance for a comprehensive understanding of the gut microbiome spectrum in healthy individuals.

Wu, Jiacheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging design of experiments to build chemometric models for the quantification of uranium (VI) and HNO3 by Raman spectroscopy

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) and support vector regression (SVR) models were optimized for the quantification of U(VI) (10–320 g L −1 ) and HNO 3 (0.6–6 M) by Raman spectroscopy with optimized calibration sets chosen by optimal design of experiments. The designed approach effectively minimized the number of samples in the calibration set for PLSR and SVR by selecting sample concentrations with a quadratic process model, despite complex confounding and covarying spectral features in the spectra. The top PLS2 model resulted in percent root mean square errors of prediction for U(VI), HNO 3 , and NO 3 − of 3.7%, 3.6%, and 2.9%, respectively. PLS1 models performed similarly despite modeling an analyte with a majority linear response (i.e., uranyl symmetric stretch) and another with more covarying vibrational modes (i.e., HNO 3 ). Partial least squares (PLS) model loadings and regression coefficients were evaluated to better understand the relationship between weaker Raman bands and covarying spectral features. Support vector machine models outperformed PLS1 models, resulting in percent root mean square error of prediction values for U(VI) and HNO 3 of 1.5% and 3.1%, respectively. The optimal nonlinear SVR model was trained using a similar number of samples (11) compared with the PLSR model, even though PLS is a linear modeling approach. The generic D-optimal design presented in this work provides a robust statistical framework for selecting training set samples in disparate two-factor systems. This approach reinforces Raman spectroscopy for the quantification of species relevant to the nuclear fuel cycle and provides a robust chemometric modeling approach to bolster online monitoring in challenging process environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Binning is Sinning (Supernova Version): The Impact of Self-calibration in Cosmological Analyses with Type Ia Supernovae

Recent cosmological analyses (e.g., JLA, Pantheon) of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) have propagated systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix and either binned or smoothed the systematic uncertainty vectors in redshift space. We demonstrate that systematic error budgets of these analyses can be improved by a factor of ~ 1.5 × with the use of unbinned and unsmoothed covariance matrices. To understand this, we employ a separate approach that simultaneously fits for cosmological parameters and additional self-calibrating scale parameters that constrain the size of each systematic. We show that the covariance-matrix approach and scale-parameter approach indeed yield equivalent results, implying that in both cases the data can self-calibrate certain systematic uncertainties, but that this ability is hindered when information is binned or smoothed in redshift space. We review the top systematic uncertainties in current analyses and find that the reduction of systematic uncertainties in the unbinned case depends on whether a systematic is solely degenerate with the cosmological model in redshift space or whether it can be described by additional correlations between supernova properties and luminosity. Furthermore, we show that the power of self-calibration increases with the size of the data set, which presents a tremendous opportunity for upcoming analyses of photometrically classified samples, like those of Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (NGRST). However, to take advantage of self-calibration in large, photometrically classified samples, we must first address the issue that binning is required in currently used photometric analysis methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Distinct regional meteorological influences on low-cloud albedo susceptibility over global marine stratocumulus regions

Abstract. Marine stratocumuli cool the Earth effectively due to their high reflectance of incoming solar radiation and persistent occurrence. The susceptibility of cloud albedo to droplet number concentration perturbations depends strongly on large-scale meteorological conditions. Studies focused on the meteorological dependence of cloud adjustments often overlook the covariability among meteorological factors and their geographical and temporal variability. We use 8 years of satellite observations sorted by day and geographical location to show the global distribution of marine low-cloud albedo susceptibility. We find an overall cloud brightening potential for most marine warm clouds, which is more pronounced over subtropical coastal regions. A weak cloud darkening potential in the annual mean is evident over the remote SE Pacific and SE Atlantic. We show that large-scale meteorological fields from the ERA5 reanalysis data, including lower-tropospheric stability, free-tropospheric relative humidity, sea surface temperature, and boundary layer depth, have distinct covariabilities over each of the eastern subtropical ocean basins where marine stratocumuli prevail. This leads to a markedly different annual cycle in albedo susceptibility over each basin. Moreover, we find that basin-specific regional relationships between key meteorological factors and albedo susceptibilities are absent in a global analysis. Our results stress the importance of considering the geographical distinctiveness of temporal meteorological covariability when scaling up the local-to-global response of cloud albedo to aerosol perturbations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining aerosol–cloud adjustments by uniting surface observations with a perturbed parameter ensemble

Abstract. Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are the largest source of uncertainty in inferring the magnitude of future warming consistent with the observational record. The effective radiative forcing due to ACI (ERFaci) is dominated by liquid clouds and is composed of two terms: the change in cloud albedo due to redistributing liquid over a larger number of cloud droplets (Nd) and the change in cloud macrophysical properties due to changes in cloud microphysics. These terms are, respectively, referred to as the radiative forcing due to ACI (RFaci) and aerosol–cloud adjustments. While the magnitude of RFaci is uncertain, its sign is confidently negative and results in a cooling in the historical record. In contrast, the adjustment of cloud liquid water path (LWP) to enhanced Nd and associated radiative forcing is uncertain in sign. Increased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with precipitation suppression, while decreased LWP in response to increased Nd is consistent with enhanced evaporation from cloud top. Observational constraints of these processes are poor in part because of causal ambiguity in the relationship between Nd and LWP. To better understand this relationship, precipitation (P), Nd, and LWP surface observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) atmospheric observatory are combined with the output from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6). This allows for causal interpretation of observed covariability. Observations of precipitation and cloud from ENA constrain the range of possible LWP aerosol–cloud adjustments relative to the prior from the PPE by 15 %, resulting in a global value that is confidently positive (a historical cooling) ranging from 2.1 to 6.9 g m−2. It is found that observed covariability between Nd and LWP is dominated by coalescence scavenging and that this observed covariability is not strongly related to aerosol–cloud adjustments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

Mapping in situ eddy covariance measurements of terrestrial land–atmosphere fluxes to the globe is a key method for diagnosing the Earth system from a data-driven perspective. We describe the first global products (called X-BASE) from a newly implemented upscaling framework, FLUXCOM-X, representing an advancement from the previous generation of FLUXCOM products in terms of flexibility and technical capabilities. The X-BASE products are comprised of estimates of CO 2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET), and for the first time a novel, fully data-driven global transpiration product (ETT), at high spatial (0.05°) and temporal (hourly) resolution. X-BASE estimates the global NEE at −5.75 ± 0.33 Pg C yr −1 for the period 2001–2020, showing a much higher consistency with independent atmospheric carbon cycle constraints compared to the previous versions of FLUXCOM. The improvement of global NEE was likely only possible thanks to the international effort to increase the precision and consistency of eddy covariance collection and processing pipelines, as well as to the extension of the measurements to more site years resulting in a wider coverage of bioclimatic conditions. However, X-BASE global net ecosystem exchange shows a very low interannual variability, which is common to state-of-the-art data-driven flux products and remains a scientific challenge. With 125 ± 2.1 Pg C yr −1 for the same period, X-BASE GPP is slightly higher than previous FLUXCOM estimates, mostly in temperate and boreal areas. X-BASE evapotranspiration amounts to 74.7×10 3 ± 0.9×10 3 km 3 globally for the years 2001–2020 but exceeds precipitation in many dry areas, likely indicating overestimation in these regions. On average 57 % of evapotranspiration is estimated to be transpiration, in good agreement with isotope-based approaches, but higher than estimates from many land surface models. Despite considerable improvements to the previous upscaling products, many further opportunities for development exist. Pathways of exploration include methodological choices in the selection and processing of eddy covariance and satellite observations, their ingestion into the framework, and the configuration of machine learning methods. For this, the new FLUXCOM-X framework was specifically designed to have the necessary flexibility to experiment, diagnose, and converge to more accurate global flux estimates.

Nelson, Jacob A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The mass-zero spin-two field and gravitational theory.

Demonstration that the conventional theory of the mass-zero spin-two field with sources introduces extraneous nonspin-two field components in source regions and fails to be covariant under the full or restricted conformal group. A modified theory is given, expressed in terms of the physical components of mass-zero spin-two field rather than in terms of 'potentials,' which has no extraneous components inside or outside sources, and which is covariant under the full conformal group. For a proper choice of source term, this modified theory has the correct Newtonian limit and automatically implies that a symmetric second-rank source tensor has zero divergence. It is shown that possibly a generally covariant form of the spin-two theory derived here can be constructed to agree with general relativity in all currently accessible experimental situations.

Coulter, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Bounding filter - A simple solution to lack of exact a priori statistics.

Wiener and Kalman-Bucy estimation problems assume that models describing the signal and noise stochastic processes are exactly known. When this modeling information, i.e., the signal and noise spectral densities for Wiener filter and the signal and noise dynamic system and disturbing noise representations for Kalman-Bucy filtering, is inexactly known, then the filter's performance is suboptimal and may even exhibit apparent divergence. In this paper a system is designed whereby the actual estimation error covariance is bounded by the covariance calculated by the estimator. Therefore, the estimator obtains a bound on the actual error covariance which is not available, and also prevents its apparent divergence.

Nahi, N. E.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Long and short arc altitude determination for GEOS-C

The accuracy with which the GEOS-C altitude may be estimated over long (7 day) and short (40 minute) orbital arcs is investigated. Over the long are excellent agreement was attained between a simulation of the orbit determination process and a covariance analysis. Both approaches yielded RMS altitude errors of about 1.5 meters over the Caribbean calibration area and approximately 7.5 meters overall. The geopotential was identified as the largest error source. For the short arc, the covariance analysis revealed that the propagated altitude error is linearly dependent upon station survey component errors which are also the largest source of altitude errors. An Appendix contains the mathematics of covariance analysis as applied to orbit determination.

Koch, D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The treatment of bias in the square-root information filter/smoother

The Dyer-McReynolds square-root information filter (SRIF) is rederived, using recursive least-square arguments. The result is applied to a system composed partly of biases. The filter sensitivity matrix, computed covariance, and consider covariance for this augmented system are reviewed. A new computationally attractive representation for the smoothed estimates, in terms of a smoothed sensitivity matrix and a smoothed computed covariance is presented.

Bierman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The transformation of aerodynamic stability derivatives by symbolic mathematical computation

The formulation of mathematical models of aeronautical systems for simulation or other purposes, involves the transformation of aerodynamic stability derivatives. It is shown that these derivatives transform like the components of a second order tensor having one index of covariance and one index of contravariance. Moreover, due to the equivalence of covariant and contravariant transformations in orthogonal Cartesian systems of coordinates, the transformations can be treated as doubly covariant or doubly contravariant, if this simplifies the formulation. It is shown that the tensor properties of these derivatives can be used to facilitate their transformation by symbolic mathematical computation, and the use of digital computers equipped with formula manipulation compilers. When the tensor transformations are mechanised in the manner described, man-hours are saved and the errors to which human operators are prone can be avoided.

Howard, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Retrodictive determinism

With respect to irreversible, non-homeomorphic maps, contravariant and covariant tensor fields have distinctly natural covariance and transformational behavior. For thermodynamic processes which are non-adiabatic, the fact that the process cannot be represented by a homeomorphic map emphasizes the logical arrow of time, an idea which encompasses a principle of retrodictive determinism for covariant tensor fields.

Kiehn, R. M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Some estimation formulae for continuous time-invariant linear systems

In this brief paper we examine a Riccati equation decomposition due to Reid and Lainiotis and apply the result to the continuous time-invariant linear filtering problem. Exploitation of the time-invariant structure leads to integration-free covariance recursions which are of use in covariance analyses and in filter implementations. A super-linearly convergent iterative solution to the algebraic Riccati equation (ARE) is developed. The resulting algorithm, arranged in a square-root form, is thought to be numerically stable and competitive with other ARE solution methods. Certain covariance relations that are relevant to the fixed-point and fixed-lag smoothing problems are also discussed.

Bierman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

New trends in cosmology

A review of big-bang cosmology is presented, emphasizing the big-bang model, hypotheses on the origin of galaxies, observational tests of the big-bang model that may be possible with the Large Space Telescope, and the scale-covariant theory of gravitation. Detailed attention is given to the equations of general relativity, the redshift-distance relation for extragalactic objects, expansion of the universe, the initial singularity, the discovery of the 3-K blackbody radiation, and measurements of the amount of deuterium in the universe. The curvature of the expanding universe is examined along with the magnitude-redshift relation for quasars and galaxies. Several models for the origin of galaxies are evaluated, and it is suggested that a model of galaxy formation via the formation of black holes is consistent with the model of an expanding universe. Scale covariance is discussed, a scale-covariant theory is developed which contains invariance under scale transformation, and it is shown that Dirac's (1937) large-numbers hypothesis finds a natural role in this theory by relating the atomic and Einstein units.

Canuto, V. M.↗