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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Active learning of reactive Bayesian force fields applied to heterogeneous catalysis dynamics of H/Pt

Abstract Atomistic modeling of chemically reactive systems has so far relied on either expensive ab initio methods or bond-order force fields requiring arduous parametrization. Here, we describe a Bayesian active learning framework for autonomous “on-the-fly” training of fast and accurate reactive many-body force fields during molecular dynamics simulations. At each time-step, predictive uncertainties of a sparse Gaussian process are evaluated to automatically determine whether additional ab initio training data are needed. We introduce a general method for mapping trained kernel models onto equivalent polynomial models whose prediction cost is much lower and independent of the training set size. As a demonstration, we perform direct two-phase simulations of heterogeneous H 2 turnover on the Pt(111) catalyst surface at chemical accuracy. The model trains itself in three days and performs at twice the speed of a ReaxFF model, while maintaining much higher fidelity to DFT and excellent agreement with experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Dynamic resource allocation drives growth under nitrogen starvation in eukaryotes

Cells can sense changes in their extracellular environment and subsequently adapt their biomass composition. Nutrient abundance defines the capability of the cell to produce biomass components. Under nutrient-limited conditions, resource allocation dramatically shifts to carbon-rich molecules. Here, we used dynamic biomass composition data to predict changes in growth and reaction flux distributions using the available genome-scale metabolic models of five eukaryotic organisms (three heterotrophs and two phototrophs). We identified temporal profiles of metabolic fluxes that indicate long-term trends in pathway and organelle function in response to nitrogen depletion. Surprisingly, our calculations of model sensitivity and biosynthetic cost showed that free energy of biomass metabolites is the main driver of biosynthetic cost and not molecular weight, thus explaining the high costs of arginine and histidine. We demonstrated how metabolic models can accurately predict the complexity of interwoven mechanisms in response to stress over the course of growth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of a 1/20th Scaled-down Gas Reactor Using MOOSE-based Application Pronghorn

University of Idaho (UI) designed and built a 1/20th scaled-down HTGR system to examine the mixing and venting of helium and reactor cavity air after a loss-of-coolant, also known as LOCA, due to a break in the reactor pressure vessel. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models of the system were developed, but their computational cost is high for modeling long transient accident scenarios. The objective of the project is to develop a simulation of the scaled-down system using the MOOSE-based application Pronghorn. A numerical approach is needed to have a better understanding of the physics phenomena that takes place following a LOCA event, and it can guide plant designers to design parameters for the development of mitigation techniques. This scenario is applicable to all HTR designs including the pebble bed reactor concept.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Herbaceous Feedstock 2022 State of Technology Report

The U.S. Department of Energy promotes production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement in this mission, Idaho National Laboratory completes an annual SOT report for nth-plant and 1st-plant herbaceous biomass feedstock logistics. The purpose of the SOT is to provide the status of feedstock supply system technology development for herbaceous biomass to biofuels relative to technical targets and cost goals from specific design cases, based on data and experimental results. Although conventional feedstock supply systems form the backbone of the emerging biofuels industry, they have limitations that restrict widespread implementation on a national scale. To meet the demands of the future industry, the feedstock supply system must shift from the conventional system to what has been termed “advanced” supply systems. In advanced designs, a distributed network of aggregation and processing centers, termed “depots,” are employed near the points of biomass production (i.e., the field or forest) to reduce feedstock variability and produce feedstocks of a uniform format, moving toward biomass commoditization. The 2022 Herbaceous SOT is part of a vision of achieving an implemented advanced feedstock supply system, which produces a stable, tradable commodity at the decentralized distributed depot. It utilizes feedstock fractionation by incorporating technologies that can separate the biomass into its anatomical fractions (leaves, husks, stems and cobs) to reduce impurities and produce fractions that satisfy downstream quality considerations. By using a series of air classification steps, this strategy can reduce the extrinsic ash in corn stover and produce enriched tissue fractions that can be blended to a conversion specification or converted individually in optimized biochemical conversion campaigns. Additionally, a majority of the leaves (which do not meet the quality specification) are separated out early and can be supplied to alternate markets. The 2022 Herbaceous SOT incorporates an advanced biomass fractionation and processing system to produce pellets enriched tissues from three-pass corn stover. The resulting enriched pellets are delivered to the biorefinery individually where they can be blended to a specification or converted in campaigns where the conditions are optimized for each tissue. Unused fractions can be sent to a a midstream market or to a different conversion process that is better suited to their properties to offset the cost of the delivered feedstock. The main benefits from the proposed system can be summarized as: (1) $6.86/dry ton (2016$) lower cost for the air classification due to elimination of the requirement to discard the high ash lights fraction; (2) $1.56/dry ton lower delivered cost by selling the unsuitable leaf fraction into the feed market as a midstream co-product (assuming a selling price that is 11% higher than their cost of production); (3) 0.98% increase in carbohydrate content (from 60.16% to 61.14%); and (4) 0.97% decrease in ash content (from 6.00% to 5.03%) compared to the 2021 Herbaceous SOT. Overall, the 2022 nth-plant Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $78.64/dry ton (2016$) if it is assumed that the enriched leaf fraction is sold at its production cost; this is a slight increase of $0.43/dry ton increase from the 2021 Herbaceous SOT nth-Supply case cost. The increased cost derived from a $0.38/dry ton increase in transportation and handling cost to procure more biomass (to replace the enriched leaf fraction that was not delivered to the biorefinery. The total preprocessing cost was $0.27/dry ton higher than the 2021 result because of updates to energy consumption, purchasing price and dry matter loss data for the rotary shear ($3.00/dry ton increase) and the pelleting mill ($4.52/dry ton increase). The data utilized were generated in pilot-scale tests in the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility (BFNUF) at INL and at Forest Concepts, including tests for rotary shear and pelleting of the air classified fractions. A greenhouse gas emissions analysis was performed by Argonne National Laboratory using the most up to date version of the Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation model (GREET®). The analysis showed an increase of 17.34 kg CO2e/dry ton from the 2021 SOT (67.71 kg CO2e/ton in the 2021 Herbaceous SOT to 85.05 kg CO2e/ton in the 2022 Herbaceous SOT). The net increase is primarily attributed to increased energy consumption in pelleting mill.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cost Update: Commercial and Advanced Heliostat Collectors

The research team performed a detailed bottom-up manufacturing cost estimate for 2 heliostat designs: i) a commercially available design, the Stellio; and ii) an advanced heliostat design, the Drop-C. The Drop-C is designed and developed by Solar Dynamics (SD) of the United States, whilst the Stellio has been developed primarily by Schlaich Bergermann Und Partner, Sonne Gmbh (sbp) of Germany. The Stellio heliostat has been deployed at commercial scale and is being used at the Hami CSP 50-megawatt electric (MW e ) power tower plant in China. For each design, this includes all components for manufacturing and assembly in a manufacturing facility (e.g., struts and frame) using Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DFMA), and the purchased parts (e.g., mirrors, control systems, and drives). The field-assembly and construction activities are also considered to determine the installed cost of the modelled solar fields.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of Hydrogen Isotopes Utilizing Raman Spectroscopy Paired with Chemometric Analysis for Application across Multiple Systems

On-line and real-time analysis of a chemical process is a major analytical challenge that can drastically change the way the chemical industry or chemical research operates. With in situ analyses, new and powerful understanding of chemistry can be gained; however, building robust tools for long-term monitoring faces many challenges that include compensating for instrument drift, instrument replacement, and sensor or probe replacement. Accounting for these changes by recollecting calibration data and rebuilding quantification models can be costly and time consuming. Here, in this study, methods to overcome these challenges are demonstrated with an application of Raman spectroscopy to monitoring hydrogen isotopes with varied speciation within dynamic gas streams. Specifically, chemical data science tools such as chemometric modeling are leveraged along with several examples of calibration transfer approaches. Furthermore, the optimization of instrument and sensors cell parameters for targeted gas phase analyses is discussed. While the particular focus on hydrogen is highly beneficial within the nuclear energy sector, mechanisms built and demonstrated here are widely applicable to optical spectroscopy monitoring in numerous other chemical systems that can be leveraged in other hazardous processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Zigzag flow reactor for weekly thermochemical energy storage

This paper describes theoretical models and experimental performance of a novel Zigzag Flow Reactor (ZFR) for weekly thermochemical energy storage. The ZFR reduces redox-active metal oxide (MO x ) particles at high temperature (up to ~1100 °C) under inert gas sweep. A physical model demonstrates the approach to process equilibrium by minimizing the associated exergy destruction in a finite number of reaction steps, establishing the thermodynamic requirements for a practical reactor. The model results show several cost-relevant parameter tradeoffs, and the tradeoff analysis implies a cost-optimized set of boundary conditions. Numerical models and prototypes show that the ZFR enables significant gas phase homogenization while simultaneously enabling a customizable MO x residence time in the reactor, both key requirements for approaching an equilibrium process. A scaling model demonstrates the simplicity and affordability of sizing the ZFR to grid-scale levels, with fabrication costs at least five times lower than previously proposed scalable reactor concepts. As a result, a laboratory ZFR prototype achieved an energy storage density of ~90 Wh/kg with CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 3-δ as the MO x , at temperatures of ~850 °C in >10 h of total runtime.

Thermochemical energy storage↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamically Collected Local Density using Low-Cost Lidar and its Application to Traffic Models

This article demonstrates the use of traffic density observations collected dynamically in the vicinity of probe vehicles. Fixed position sensors cannot capture the longitudinal evolution of local traffic density in the corridor. In this research, dynamic traffic density observations were collected in a naturalistic driving setting that was free of any controlled experiment biases. Speed from global positioning system and space headway from a light detection and ranging module was collected on one arterial and one freeway segment, 2 and 4mi long, respectively. The combined data frequency was approximately 3Hz. Space headway was used to estimate the local density and consequently to identify the density of a specific location in a corridor. Besides, driver behavior was characterized using the relationship between instantaneous speed and local density under different regimes of the Wiedemann car-following model. Macroscopic traffic stream models were used to investigate the relationship between dynamically collected instantaneous speed and local density. Using the longitudinal evolution of density, precise local density across the corridor can be obtained along with the leader and follower trajectories. A method to identify driver behavior across density ranges was developed for different facility types using a microscopic relationship between instantaneous speed and local density. Overall driving behavior on the freeway segment can be represented by translating the instantaneous speed and local density relationship to macroscopic stream models.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2026

Financial-technical co-design for capital-intensive, resource-responsive energy systems

Because of their capital-intensive operation, wind energy systems that are competitive in terms of the cost of the energy that they produce lead to risk-reward trade-offs that make their business cases less favorable than those of conventional energy generation technologies. However, wind energy systems tend to be designed to maximize energy production or minimize cost of energy rather than to maximize their business cases. In this work, we attempt to exploit designs specifically tailored to business cases. We develop a novel framework for analyzing energy systems that ties their design variables to monthly operating incomes using simple models and historical hourly market and resource data. Using this approach, we demonstrate that for a wind site with abundant wind resource in the California Independent System Operator market, we can control the trade-off between mean and 5th percentile monthly returns by choosing the specific power of the turbine at a fixed modeled initial capital cost. Our framework gives a measure of the risk-reward spectrum of energy generation assets that could be built at a given site with respect to the sub-annual resource/market variation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the sequential dissociative double ionization of O 2 by ultrashort intense infrared laser pulses

A density matrix approach for sequential double ionization (DM-SDI) of molecules has been developed recently and was applied to the N 2 molecule. In this article, we extended the DM-SDI model to O 2 , which is a more complicated system to model than N 2 , due to its electronic structures and spin-orbit and laser couplings in the manifold of doubly charged states. We obtained a good agreement on the kinetic energy release spectrum of O + + O + from previous experiments. Thanks to the low computational cost of the model, we explored the mechanism behind the ionization and dissociation dynamics as well as the effects of lasers on the spectrum. Furthermore, this work will pave the way to model sequential dissociative double ionization of larger molecules and to probe molecular dynamics by measuring kinetic energy release spectra from this process.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic Analysis of Novel PV Plant Designs for Extreme Cost Reductions

A techno-economic analysis is underway examining the cost and performance of future large-scale photovoltaic (PV) plant components, including bifacial modules, tandem modules, increased plant voltage architectures, and module-level power electronics. Integration of these components into PV plant designs is compared with current PV technologies based on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Baseline models are developed and validated against recorded PV plant performance data. Expected cost and performance data of future PV technologies are incorporated into the baseline models. An evolutionary algorithm is utilized to optimize PV plant configuration, technology combination, and LCOE. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the bifacial module analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Curating Carbon Storage Data for Reuse: Enabling Research and Modeling from Earth’s Surface to Subsurface

The volume of public geologic carbon storage (GCS) data resources has continued to increase in recent years as the result of an increase in funding from government, industry, and academia towards national, basin, regional and field scale studies to ensure carbon capture and storage becomes a commercially viable operation. Despite the increasing volume of data, GCS data applied towards analyses such as geologic, cost, and risk modeling continues to be multi-sourced and often disparate in nature, published across government agencies, websites, data repositories and buried in derivative reports and documents. Much of the time preparing for an analysis and derivative product development is spent collecting, aggregating, transforming and preparing input data. There have been significant efforts within the DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory’s Carbon Storage Program to optimize multi-source, multi-scale subsurface geologic data curation and aggregation to support data discovery, interoperability, and reuse. Methods include the use of artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data science techniques. This talk will discuss the workflows, best practices, and processes developed to support the aggregation and curation of data through the whole system – surface to subsurface data - that support multi-scale, multi-purpose analysis for carbon storage research.

Morkner, Paige↗
DOE OSTI2022

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modified Calcium Manganites for Thermochemical Energy Storage Applications

CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 3-δ (CAM28) and CaTi 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 3-δ (CTM28) are perovskite metal oxides developed for high-temperature thermochemical energy storage (TCES) applications, e.g., in support of air Brayton power generation. Previous reports for these compounds focus on the equilibrium non-stoichiometry (δ) as a function of temperature and oxygen partial pressure (pO 2 ) and the endotherm (or exotherm) accompanying changes in δ resulting from thermal reduction (or re-oxidation). Herein, we report results for elemental substitution and doping (Al, Co, Fe, La, Sr, Ti, Y, Zn, and Zr) of calcium manganites (CM) that establish the preference for CAM28 and CTM28. Techniques employed include conventional (screening and equilibrium) and ballistically heated multi-cycle thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), conventional and high temperature ( in-situ ) X-ray diffraction (XRD), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). Forward-looking results for A-site Y-doped materials, e.g., Ca 0.9 Y 0.1 MnO 3-δ (CYM910), establish a route to increasing the reduction enthalpy relative to CAM28 and CTM28, albeit at the expense of increased reduction temperatures and raw materials costs. A thermodynamic model presented for CAM28, but extendable to related materials, provides values for the reaction enthalpy and extent of reduction as a function of temperature and oxygen partial pressure for use in design efforts. Taken as a whole, the results support the choice of Al-doped CaMnO 3-δ as a low-cost material for TCES in a high temperature air Brayton application, but point the way to achieving higher stored energy densities that could lead to overall cost savings.

Miller, James E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Valuing the Future Electric Grid: A Bid-Based Approach

Energy storage resources (ESRs) and other zero marginal cost (ZMC) resources have unique characteristics that are not fully captured in today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. Because the modeling assumptions used in these tools are simplified approximations of how operations and investment decisions occur in the real-world, accurately representing cost and operational characteristics are key for determining how these resources impact price formation. Questions such as—Where should we build new transmission? Will a small modular reactor earn enough revenue to participate in the future electric grid? Is retrofitting a coal plant with carbon capture technology economically feasible?—all require accurate electricity prices, which aren’t available from today’s electricity planning and operations modeling tools. As an example, production cost models (PCMs) are heavily utilized tools that determine the cost and reliability of the electric system. However, as PCMs were developed to help thermal generators manage their fuel inventories, production cost modeling is largely based on fuel prices. Because ESRs do not incur fuel costs, they are often modeled as ZMC resources. In reality, ESRs incur opportunity costs as well as technology-specific (degradation) costs that are non-trivial to calculate but are important for price formation. In this research, we identify options to incorporate more realistic opportunity and degradation costs in ESR bidding algorithms. Expanding available bidding assumptions allows energy system modelers to develop more accurate economic valuations for ESRs, leading to more accurate price formation from leading energy system modeling tools.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transfer learning of neural surrogates on multifidelity groundwater simulations

Multifidelity data used in the paper published in Advances in Water Resources 206 (2025) 105140, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2025.105140 The code used to process the data is openly available on GitHub at https://github.com/Model-Reduction-and-UQ-Group/Transfer_Learning_K_reconstruction Computationally inexpensive surrogates of process-based models, such as deep neural networks, enable ensemble-based computations used in risk assessment, data assimilation, etc. However, generation of large datasets required to train a neural network can be as expensive as the ensemble simulations themselves. We ameliorate this challenge by using data from multifidelity (MF) groundwater simulations and transfer learning (TL) to reduce data generation costs while maintaining model accuracy. As a computational example, we train a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) to reconstruct permeability fields from saturation maps derived from a multiphase flow model. Starting with very low- and low-fidelity data generated on increasingly coarse meshes, we pretrain the CNN, followed by output-layer training and fine-tuning using only a limited number of high-fidelity samples. We demonstrate the surrogate’s robustness when interpreting low-quality inputs—such as interpolated maps or data affected by noise—which has strong implications for the applicability in practical hydrogeological scenarios. This multilevel MF-TL strategy achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, significantly outperforming high-fidelity-only approaches under the same computational budget.

Chiofalo, Alessia [University of Bologna] (ORCID:0↗