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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling of streamflow in a 30 km long reach spanning 5 years using OpenFOAM 5.x

Abstract. Developing accurate and efficient modeling techniques for streamflow at the tens-of-kilometers spatial scale and multi-year temporal scale is critical for evaluating and predicting the impact of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics. However, achieving such a goal is challenging because of limited surveys of streambed hydraulic roughness, uncertain boundary condition specifications, and high computational costs. We demonstrate that accurate and efficient three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic modeling of natural rivers at 30 km and 5-year scales is feasible using the following three techniques within OpenFOAM, an open-source computational fluid dynamics platform: (1) generating a distributed hydraulic roughness field for the streambed by integrating water-stage observation data, a rough wall theory, and a local roughness optimization and adjustment strategy; (2) prescribing the boundary condition for the inflow and outflow by integrating precomputed results of a one-dimensional (1-D) hydraulic model with the 3-D model; and (3) reducing computational time using multiple parallel runs constrained by 1-D inflow and outflow boundary conditions. Streamflow modeling for a 30 km long reach in the Columbia River (CR) over 58 months can be achieved in less than 6 d using 1.1 million CPU hours. The mean error between the modeled and the observed water stages for our simulated CR reach ranges from −16 to 9 cm (equivalent to approximately ±7 % relative to the average water depth) at seven locations during most of the years between 2011 and 2019. We can reproduce the velocity distribution measured by the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The correlation coefficients of the depth-averaged velocity between the model and ADCP measurements are in the range between 0.71 and 0.83 at 75 % of the survey cross sections. With the validated model, we further show that the relative importance of dynamic pressure versus hydrostatic pressure varies with discharge variations and topography heterogeneity. Given the model's high accuracy and computational efficiency, the model framework provides a generic approach to evaluate and predict the impacts of climate- and human-induced discharge variations on river hydrodynamics at tens-of-kilometers and decadal scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Experimental Design for Inverse Problems in the Presence of Observation Correlations

Optimal experimental design (OED) is the general formalism of sensor placement and decisions on the data collection strategy for engineered or natural experiments. This problem is prevalent in many critical fields such as battery design, numerical weather prediction, geosciences, environmental and urban studies. State-of-the-art computational methods for experimental design do not accommodate correlation structure in observational errors produced by many expensive-to-operate devices such as X-ray machines, radars, and satellites. Discarding evident data correlations leads to biased results, higher expenses, and waste of valuable resources. We present a general formulation of the OED formalism for model-constrained large-scale Bayesian linear inverse problems, where measurement errors are generally correlated. The proposed approach utilizes the Hadamard product of matrices to formulate the weighted-likelihood, and is valid for both finite as well as infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out for empirical verification of the proposed approach using an advection-diffusion model, where the objective is to optimally place a small set of sensors, under a limited budget, to predict the concentration of a contaminant in a closed and bounded domain.

Correlated observations↗
DOE OSTI2022

Real-time dispatch optimization for concentrating solar power with thermal energy storage

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants present a promising path towards utility-scale renewable energy. The power tower, or central receiver, configuration can achieve higher operating temperatures than other forms of CSP, and, like all forms of CSP, naturally pairs with comparatively inexpensive thermal energy storage, which allows CSP plants to dispatch electricity according to market price incentives and outside the hours of solar resource availability. Currently, CSP plants commonly include a steam Rankine power cycle and several heat exchange components to generate high-pressure steam using stored thermal energy. The efficiency of the steam Rankine cycle depends on the temperature of the plant's operating fluid, and so is a main concern of plant operators. However, the variable nature of the solar resource and the conservatism with which the receiver is operated prevent perfect control over the receiver outlet temperature. Therefore, during periods of solar variability, collection occurs at lower-than-design temperature. To support operator decisions in a real-time setting, we develop a revenue-maximizing non-convex mixed-integer, quadradically-constrained program which determines a dispatch schedule with sub-hourly time fidelity and considers temperature-dependent power cycle efficiency. The exact nonlinear formulation proves intractable for real-time decision support. Here we present exact and inexact techniques to improve problem tractability that include a hybrid nonlinear and linear formulation. Our approach admits solutions within approximately 3% of optimality, on average, within a five-minute time limit, demonstrating its usability for decision support in a real-time setting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven approach to parameterize SCAN + U for an accurate description of 3 d transition metal oxide thermochemistry

Semilocal density-functional theory (DFT) methods exhibit significant errors for the phase diagrams of transition-metal oxides that are caused by an incorrect description of molecular oxygen and the large self-interaction error in materials with strongly localized electronic orbitals. Empirical and semiempirical corrections based on the DFT + U method can reduce these errors, but the parameterization and validation of the correction terms remains an on-going challenge. Here we develop a systematic methodology to determine the parameters and to statistically assess the results by considering interlinked thermochemical data across a set of transition metal compounds. We consider three interconnected levels of correction terms: (1) a constant oxygen binding correction, (2) Hubbard-U correction, and (3) DFT/DFT + U compatibility correction. The parameterization is expressed as a unified optimization problem. We demonstrate this approach for 3d transition metal oxides, considering a target set of binary and ternary oxides. With a total of 37 measured formation enthalpies taken from the literature, the dataset is augmented by the reaction energies of 1710 unique reactions that were derived from the formation energies by systematic enumeration. To ensure a balanced dataset across the available data, the reactions were grouped by their similarity using clustering and suitably weighted. The parameterization is validated using leave-one-out cross validation (CV), a standard technique for the validation of statistical models. We apply the methodology to the strongly constrained and appropriately normed (SCAN) density functional. Based on the CV score, the error of binary (ternary) oxide formation energies is reduced by 40% (75%) to 0.10 (0.03) eV/atom. A simplified correction scheme that does not involve SCAN/SCAN + U compatibility terms still achieves an error reduction of 30% (25%). The method and tools demonstrated here can be applied to other classes of materials or to parameterize the corrections to optimize DFT + U performance for other target physical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Occupant Preference-Aware Load Scheduling for Resilient Communities

The load scheduling of resilient communities in the islanded mode is subject to many uncertainties such as weather forecast errors and occupant behavior stochasticity. To date, it remains unclear how occupant preferences affect the effectiveness of the load scheduling of resilient communities. This paper proposes an occupant thermal preference-aware load scheduler for resilient communities operating in the islanded mode. First, key resilience indicators are selected to quantify its impacts on the load scheduling of a resilient community. A deterministic model predictive control-based load scheduling framework is adopted as the baseline. Then, a chance-constrained controller is proposed to address the occupant-induced uncertainty in room temperature setpoints. Finally, the chance-constrained controller is compared with the deterministic controller on a virtual community testbed based on a real-world net-zero energy community in Florida, U.S. Results have shown that the proposed chance-constrained controller performs better in terms of serving occupants’ thermal preference and the required battery sizes compared to the deterministic controller with the presence of the assumed stochastic occupant behavior. This work indicates that it is necessary to consider the stochasticity of the occupant behavior when designing optimal load schedulers for resilient communities.

Wang, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust scalable initialization for Bayesian variational inference with multi-modal Laplace approximations

Predictive modeling typically relies on Bayesian model calibration to provide uncertainty quantification. Variational inference utilizing fully independent (“mean-field”) Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions. This simplification is attractive since the number of variational parameters grows only linearly with the number of unknown model parameters. However, the resulting diagonal covariance structure and unimodal behavior can be too restrictive to provide useful approximations of intractable Bayesian posteriors that exhibit highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors for these problems can be obtained by considering the family of Gaussian mixtures. Gaussian mixtures are capable of capturing multiple modes and approximating any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy, while maintaining some analytical tractability. Unfortunately, variational inference using Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. The existence of multiple local minima due to strong nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference present additional complications, These challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and computational scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with a global optimization stage in model parameter space. In this step, local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace approximation. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. The robustness and scalability of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through application to an ensemble of synthetic tests using high-dimensional, multimodal probability density functions. Here, the practical aspects of the approach are demonstrated with inversion problems in structural dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear and robustness to modeling uncertainty

Here, this work and its companion paper, Amon et al. [Phys. Rev. D 105, 023514 (2022)], present cosmic shear measurements and cosmological constraints from over 100 million source galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data. We constrain the lensing amplitude parameter 𝑆 8 ≡𝜎 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ at the 3% level in Λ⁢ CDM: 𝑆 8 =0.75⁢9$^{+0.025}_{−0.023}$ (68% CL). Our constraint is at the 2% level when using angular scale cuts that are optimized for the Λ⁢ CDM analysis: 𝑆 8 =0.77⁢2$^{+0.018}_{−0.017}$ (68% CL). With cosmic shear alone, we find no statistically significant constraint on the dark energy equation-of-state parameter at our present statistical power. We carry out our analysis blind, and compare our measurement with constraints from two other contemporary weak lensing experiments: the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) and Hyper-Suprime Camera Subaru Strategic Program (HSC). We additionally quantify the agreement between our data and external constraints from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our DES Y3 result under the assumption of Λ⁢ CDM is found to be in statistical agreement with Planck 2018, although favors a lower 𝑆 8 than the CMB-inferred value by 2.3⁢𝜎 (a 𝑝-value of 0.02). This paper explores the robustness of these cosmic shear results to modeling of intrinsic alignments, the matter power spectrum and baryonic physics. We additionally explore the statistical preference of our data for intrinsic alignment models of different complexity. The fiducial cosmic shear model is tested using synthetic data, and we report no biases greater than 0.3⁢𝜎 in the plane of 𝑆 8 ×Ω m caused by uncertainties in the theoretical models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Realistic Extragalactic Model (DREaM) Galaxy Catalogs: Predictions for a Roman Ultra-deep Field

In the next decade, deep galaxy surveys from telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope and Roman Space Telescope will provide transformational data sets that will greatly enhance the understanding of galaxy formation during the epoch of reionization (EoR). In this work, we present the Deep Realistic Extragalactic Model (DREaM) for creating synthetic galaxy catalogs. Our model combines dark matter simulations, subhalo abundance matching and empirical models, and includes galaxy positions, morphologies, and spectral energy distributions. The resulting synthetic catalog extends to redshifts z ~ 12, and galaxy masses log 10 (M/M ⊙ ) = 5 covering an area of 1 deg 2 on the sky. We use DREaM to explore the science returns of a 1 deg 2 Roman ultra-deep field (UDF), and to provide a resource for optimizing ultra-deep survey designs. We find that a Roman UDF to ~30 m AB will potentially detect more than 10 6 M UV < -17 galaxies, with more than 10 4 at redshifts z > 7, offering an unparalleled data set for constraining galaxy properties during the EoR. Our synthetic catalogs and simulated images are made publicly available to provide the community with a tool to prepare for upcoming data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future marine biofuels in the port of Seattle region

Marine transportation, a vital global sector, emits 3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions, which are predicted to increase in the future. Marine biofuels derived from biomass or waste sources like wood residue, waste oil and municipal solid waste can be used for decarbonization. However, limited studies have explored if sufficient marine biofuels could be produced and supplied to major regional ports given feedstock, supply chain and technological constraints. We fill this gap by evaluating the feasibility of supplying marine biofuels to the Port of Seattle. The Regional Bio-Economy Model (RBEM) and the Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT) are used to build scenarios for simulating marine biofuel production in the Port region. We harmonized technoeconomic assumptions for RBEM and FTOT, input FTOT feedstock utilization and routing outputs into RBEM, and modelled conversion, feedstock, and policy scenario variations in RBEM. In RBEM, overall biofuel production was constrained primarily by the biofuel cost, and then by feedstock availability. Providing policy incentives and reducing permitting time frames alleviated these constraints and spurred the buildout of a robust industry through industrial learning dynamics in the initial years. With these measures in place, the RBEM results show that 100% of fuel demand at the Port can be supplied by biofuels with policy incentives and suitable technoeconomic conditions, but the addition of transportation cost considerations using FTOT led to 27.8% of demand being able to be met by biofuels at reasonable fuel delivery cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurements of three-flavor neutrino oscillations from a PISCES two-detector fit to the NOvA Experiment data

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment with two functionally identical detectors: a Near Detector (ND) at Fermilab, placed 1 km from the neutrino source, and a Far Detector (FD) located 810 km away from the ND in Minnesota. NOvA s primary physics goals are to measure the neutrino oscillation parameters $\theta_{23}$ and $\Delta m^2_{32}$ with high precision, determine the neutrino mass hierarchy, and constrain the value of $\delta_{CP}$, primarily via the study of muon neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation. Extracting values for oscillation parameters from fits to data usually relies on treating systematic uncertainties as nuisance parameters, a strategy that suffers from poor scalability as the number of uncertainties becomes larger. This work introduces PISCES (Parameter Inference with Systematic Covariance and Exact Statistics), a novel method that circumvents this scalability problem by encoding systematic uncertainties into a covariance matrix. PISCES utilizes a nested minimization in which optimal systematic pulls are first computed using the covariance matrix in an inner minimization step, then the oscillation parameters are profiled over in the outer minimization. PISCES also uses a Poisson Likelihood term, making it ideal for the inclusion of low-statistic samples in the fits. PISCES is a flexible framework that also supports complex fits, such as a joint Near and Far detector fit. In the standard NOvA analysis, oscillation parameters are extracted using an extrapolation technique in which the ND data indirectly constrain the FD prediction via a ratio method. PISCES, on the other hand, enables a simultaneous ND+FD fit, allowing the high-statistics ND data to directly constrain systematic uncertainties across all samples. This thesis presents the full PISCES joint ND+FD fit for the NOvA three-flavor analysis, details its implementation, and evaluates its performance through extensive robustness tests and fake data studies. It also provides a comparison between the PISCES joint ND+FD results and the standard NOvA extrapolation method using the full NOvA 10-year data set. The results demonstrate that PISCES can successfully fit NOvA data while incorporating the constraints from the ND detectors consistently, using physically motivated systematic uncertainties to account for data/MC discrepancies.

Rajaoalisoa, Miriama [Cincinnati U.]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Translation and rotation equivariant normalizing flow (TRENF) for optimal cosmological analysis

ABSTRACT Our Universe is homogeneous and isotropic, and its perturbations obey translation and rotation symmetry. In this work, we develop translation and rotation equivariant normalizing flow (TRENF), a generative normalizing flow (NF) model which explicitly incorporates these symmetries, defining the data likelihood via a sequence of Fourier space-based convolutions and pixel-wise non-linear transforms. TRENF gives direct access to the high dimensional data likelihood p(x|y) as a function of the labels y, such as cosmological parameters. In contrast to traditional analyses based on summary statistics, the NF approach has no loss of information since it preserves the full dimensionality of the data. On Gaussian random fields, the TRENF likelihood agrees well with the analytical expression and saturates the Fisher information content in the labels y. On non-linear cosmological overdensity fields from N-body simulations, TRENF leads to significant improvements in constraining power over the standard power spectrum summary statistic. TRENF is also a generative model of the data, and we show that TRENF samples agree well with the N-body simulations it trained on, and that the inverse mapping of the data agrees well with a Gaussian white noise both visually and on various summary statistics: when this is perfectly achieved the resulting p(x|y) likelihood analysis becomes optimal. Finally, we develop a generalization of this model that can handle effects that break the symmetry of the data, such as the survey mask, which enables likelihood analysis on data without periodic boundaries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Budget-Constrained Sizing of Renewable and Energy Storage Systems for Farm-Scale Ammonia Production Within the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

In the transition toward sustainable agriculture, farms have emerged as eco-friendly pioneers, harnessing clean hybrid wind and solar systems to improve farm performance. A concern in this paradigm is the effective sizing of renewable energy systems to ensure optimal energy use within budget considerations. This research focuses on optimizing renewable energy sizing in small-scale ammonia production to meet specific farm demands and enhance local resilience, emphasizing the interplay between environmental and economic factors. These findings promise increased energy efficiency and sustainability in this innovative agricultural sector. Additionally, our approach considers small-scale ammonia plant needs and the dynamic relationships between ammonia, water, and farm demands. Simulations demonstrate substantial cost savings in farm electricity consumption. Specifically, scenarios with renewable energy integration in the farm can reduce at least 13% electricity cost compared to a grid-dependent system in the 15-year simulation.

ammonia↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the role of Battery Energy Storage Systems in the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment problem under renewable penetration

The integration of variable Renewable Energy Sources (vRES) to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions has introduced significant challenges for power systems operations. These challenges include high levels of uncertainty due to the intermittence associated with vRES and therefore impose the need to devise a reliable and cost-effective day-ahead unit commitment and power and reserves scheduling for real-time operations. Also, this increasing penetration of vRES requires higher ramping capabilities from units originally designed for other purposes (e.g., base-load generation), which might be exacerbated during contingency states. Hence, in this work, we propose a methodology to address the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment (CCUC) problem that leverages the participation of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) to address load-following and post-contingency management, therefore alleviating the ramping burden on conventional thermal generators. To do so, we formulate a three-level optimization problem that represents the decision-making process of obtaining the least-cost commitment, generation and reserves scheduling, while restricting the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of the system imbalance at real-time operations to user-defined tolerance levels. In addition, we devise a computationally efficient solution approach for the proposed problem based on the Column-and Constraint Generation (CCG) algorithmic framework. Two numerical experiments are conducted to empirically illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology. Key results indicate a reduction in real-time ramping needs and a better usage of the system resources, with a reduction in the overall system commitment levels and reserve scheduling costs when compared to a benchmark case in which storage is not available.

Moreira, Alexandre↗
DOE OSTI2022

Achieving Diesel Powertrain Ownership Parity in Battery Electric Heavy Duty Commercial Vehicles Using a Rapid Recurrent Recharging Architecture

Battery electric vehicles (BEV) in heavy duty (HD) commercial freight transport face challenging technoeconomic barriers to adoption. Specifically, beyond safety and compliance, fleet and operational logistics require both high up-time and parity with diesel system productivity/Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) to enable strong adoption of electrified powertrains. At present, relatively high energy storage prices coupled with the increased weight of BEV systems limit the practicality of HD commercial freight transport to shorter range applications, where smaller batteries will suffice for the mission energy requirements (single operational shift). This paper presents an approach to extend the feasibility of BEV HD trucking for a broad range of applications. The concept is based on the leveraging rapid and recurrent recharging of a BEV HD truck that may either already make frequent stops due to shipment drop-offs/reloading or be required to make frequent stops along with longer missions for recharging. While the challenges of the latter are well appreciated, the concept proposed explores making minimal impact to overall mission time by targeting high C-rate charging while optimizing the frequency (miles) through which these events must occur. The concept optimizes battery size and chemistry, such that the expected life (years and total energy throughput) is balanced with the depth of discharge between recharging events, thus making complete use of the energy available through the life of the battery system. The solution is constrained to minimize the impact on payload capacity. The paper analyzes critical levers in achieving diesel price parity (based on a simplified vehicle TCO), achieved through different purchase options (including lease versus buy) and operational models (half-life swap out). Finally, the paper identifies the application design domain where these solutions are viable with limited impact on fleet operations.

Sujan, Vivek↗
DOE OSTI2026

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗
DOE OSTI2020

Learning to Solve Large-Scale Security-Constrained Unit Commitment Problems

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a fundamental problem in power systems and electricity markets. In practical settings, SCUC is repeatedly solved via mixed-integer linear programming (MIP), sometimes multiple times per day, with only minor changes in input data. In this work, we propose a number of machine learning techniques to effectively extract information from previously solved instances in order to significantly improve the computational performance of MIP solvers when solving similar instances in the future. Based on statistical data, we predict redundant constraints in the formulation, good initial feasible solutions, and affine subspaces where the optimal solution is likely to lie, leading to a significant reduction in problem size. Computational results on a diverse set of realistic and large-scale instances show that using the proposed techniques, SCUC can be solved on average 4.3 times faster with optimality guarantees and 10.2 times faster without optimality guarantees, with no observed reduction in solution quality. Out-of-distribution experiments provide evidence that the method is somewhat robust against data-set shift. Summary of Contribution. The paper describes a novel computational method, based on a combination of mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) and machine learning (ML), to solve a challenging and fundamental optimization problem in the energy sector. The method advances the state-of-the-art, not only for this particular problem, but also, more generally, in solving discrete optimization problems via ML. We expect that the techniques presented can be readily used by practitioners in the energy sector and adapted, by researchers in other fields, to other challenging operations research problems that are solved routinely.

Machine Learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extending Parsimonious Bayesian Inference

Parsimonious Bayesian inference is a theoretical framework for efficient data assimilation that seeks to balance increased consistency between predictions and training data against corresponding increases in model complexity. Within this framework, over-training is understood as optimization that encodes excessive information within model parameters while only achieving small improvements between predictions and training data. This project aims to develop practical methods of limiting excess model information during optimization. One key observation is that practical heuristics for parsimonious learning in high-dimensions must balance expressivity, i.e. the ability of the model to capture diverse predictions with only a few non-zero parameters, against discoverability, i.e. the ability to train the model with gradient-based optimization and drive parameters to low information states. As such, we developed logical activation functions that are able to adaptively approximate arbitrary truth tables that define Boolean logic operations within a probabilistic framework. These functions have demonstrated the ability to learn exclusive disjunction (XOR) and conditioned disjunction (if [condition] then [result_if_true] else [result_if_false]) within a single layer of a neural network. To efficiently exploit these activation functions to drive parsimonious learning required several other advances within the domain of variational inference. The most efficient form of complexity suppression is structured sparsification, driving most model parameters to zero while achieving the structural coherence among nonzeros needed for bandwidth reduction. Such models are not only far more efficient at suppressing information-theoretic complexity, they also reduce the other forms of complexity (computations, communication, storage, and the number of dependencies needed to evaluate predictions). Aiming to support enhanced sparsification, this project examined new approaches to high-dimensional variational inference that allow us to calibrate and control parameter uncertainty during optimization. By identifying which parameters can sustain sparsifying perturbations with little impact on prediction quality, we can develop better pruning strategies by framing them as approximate Bayesian inference. These advances also open paths to mitigate concerns with deploying advanced learning methods in resource-constrained environments, such as running models on power-limited or communication-limited devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational Algorithms for Unit Commitment with AC Power Flows (Final Report)

Security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) is a key component in power system operations. When AC power flow constraints are considered in the SCUC model (AC-SCUC), the problem becomes extremely difficult due to its discrete and non-convex nature, as described in “Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem Formulation (GOCC)”. There are four main challenges: (i) Discrete decisions regarding unit online/offline status and start-up/shut-down procedures for every single unit. The number of discrete decision variables increases considerably when a system integrates multiple generators; (ii) Configuration-based combined-cycle formulations, and multi-commodity models that include ramping products, spin/non-spin products, and regulation up/down products. The combined-cycle units introduce additional discrete decision variables and auxiliary service products further complicate the model by connecting multi-commodity products’ continuous and discrete variables; (iii) SCUC models with AC power flow constraints are far more complex due to massive bilinear terms in the large-scale nonlinear power balance equations. The nonlinear power balance equations are further complicated by the discrete step control variables of shunts; (iv) N − 1 contingency analysis. The size of the model increases linearly with the number of contingencies considered, greatly increasing the size of the optimization model. Accordingly, there is an emergent need to develop a robust algorithm capable of deriving a high-quality solution in a short time and passing through contingency tests simultaneously. In this project, we explore innovative techniques to address this challenging problem by integrating advanced polyhedral theory, approximation methods, relaxation strategies, decomposition techniques, and parallel computing. Each technique approaches the problem from a different perspective, leveraging its specific strengths to tackle distinct challenges. Each individual method has demonstrated its effectiveness in the PI’s previous research. Their integration is expected to significantly reduce the computational time required to solve the proposed complex problem. Successful completion of this project has the potential to transform the industry by enhancing optimization solvers capable of handling large-scale day-ahead energy market clearing models within strict time constraints, while incorporating AC power flow constraints. This advancement will lead to reduced overall generation costs and, consequently, increased social welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗