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NASA NTRS2004

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Thermocapillary migration of a drop: an exact solution with Newtonian interfacial rheology and stretching/shrinkage of interfacial area elements for small Marangoni numbers

In this paper we analyze the effects of the following phenomena associated with the thermocapillary migration of a drop. The first is the influence of Newtonian surface rheology of the interface and the second is that of the energy changes associated with stretching and shrinkage of the interfacial area elements, when the drop is in motion. The former occurs because of dissipative processes in the interfacial region, such as when surfactant molecules are adsorbed at the interface in sufficient concentration. The interface is typically modeled in this instance by ascribing to it a surface viscosity. This is a different effect from that of interfacial tension gradients arising from surfactant concentration gradients. The stretching and shrinkage of interfacial area elements leads to changes in the internal energy of these elements that affects the transport of energy in the fluids adjoining the interface. When an element on the interface is stretched, its internal energy increases because of the increase in its area. This energy is supplied by the neighboring fluids that are cooled as a consequence. Conversely, when an element on the interface shrinks, the adjoining fluids are warmed. In the case of a moving drop, elements of interfacial area are stretched in the forward half of the drop, and are shrunk in the rear half. Consequently, the temperature variation on the surface of the drop and its migration speed are modified. The analysis of the motion of a drop including these effects was first performed by LeVan in 1981, in the limit when convective transport of momentum and energy are negligible. We extend the analysis of LeVan to include the convective transport of momentum by demonstrating that an exact solution of the momentum equation is obtained for an arbitrary value of the Reynolds number. This solution is then used to calculate the slightly deformed shape of the drop from a sphere.

Rheology/methods↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatially Complete Global Surface Albedos Derived from Terra/MODIS Data

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Latent Heating from TRMM Satellite Measurements

Rainfall production is the fundamental variable within the Earth's hydrological cycle because it is both the principal forcing term in surface water budgets and its energetics corollary, latent heating, is the principal source of atmospheric diabatic heating. Latent heat release itself is a consequence of phase changes between the vapor, liquid, and frozen states of water. The properties of the vertical distribution of latent heat release modulate large-scale meridional and zonal circulations within the tropics - as well as modifying the energetic efficiencies of midlatitude weather systems. This paper focuses on the retrieval of latent heat release from satellite measurements generated by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observatory, which was launched in November 1997 as a joint American-Japanese space endeavor. Since then, TRMM measurements have been providing an accurate four-dimensional account of rainfall over the global tropics and sub-tropics, information which can be used to estimate the space-time structure of latent heating across the Earth's low latitudes. The paper examines how the observed TRMM distribution of rainfall has advanced an understanding of the global water and energy cycle and its consequent relationship to the atmospheric general circulation and climate via latent heat release. A set of algorithm methodologies that are being used to estimate latent heating based on rain rate retrievals from the TRMM observations are described. The characteristics of these algorithms and the latent heating products that can be generated from them are also described, along with validation analyses of the heating products themselves. Finally, the investigation provides an overview of how TRMM-derived latent heating information is currently being used in conjunction with global weather and climate models, concluding with remarks intended to stimulate further research on latent heating retrieval from satellites.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2005

Automated Wildfire Detection Through Artificial Neural Networks

Wildfires have a profound impact upon the biosphere and our society in general. They cause loss of life, destruction of personal property and natural resources and alter the chemistry of the atmosphere. In response to the concern over the consequences of wildland fire and to support the fire management community, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS) located in Camp Springs, Maryland gradually developed an operational system to routinely monitor wildland fire by satellite observations. The Hazard Mapping System, as it is known today, allows a team of trained fire analysts to examine and integrate, on a daily basis, remote sensing data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite sensors and generate a 24 hour fire product for the conterminous United States. Although assisted by automated fire detection algorithms, N O M has not been able to eliminate the human element from their fire detection procedures. As a consequence, the manually intensive effort has prevented NOAA from transitioning to a global fire product as urged particularly by climate modelers. NASA at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland is helping N O M more fully automate the Hazard Mapping System by training neural networks to mimic the decision-making process of the frre analyst team as well as the automated algorithms.

Miller, Jerry↗

NASA NTRS2004

High Power Density Motors

With the growing concerns of global warming, the need for pollution-free vehicles is ever increasing. Pollution-free flight is one of NASA's goals for the 21" Century. , One method of approaching that goal is hydrogen-fueled aircraft that use fuel cells or turbo- generators to develop electric power that can drive electric motors that turn the aircraft's propulsive fans or propellers. Hydrogen fuel would likely be carried as a liquid, stored in tanks at its boiling point of 20.5 K (-422.5 F). Conventional electric motors, however, are far too heavy (for a given horsepower) to use on aircraft. Fortunately the liquid hydrogen fuel can provide essentially free refrigeration that can be used to cool the windings of motors before the hydrogen is used for fuel. Either High Temperature Superconductors (HTS) or high purity metals such as copper or aluminum may be used in the motor windings. Superconductors have essentially zero electrical resistance to steady current. The electrical resistance of high purity aluminum or copper near liquid hydrogen temperature can be l/lOO* or less of the room temperature resistance. These conductors could provide higher motor efficiency than normal room-temperature motors achieve. But much more importantly, these conductors can carry ten to a hundred times more current than copper conductors do in normal motors operating at room temperature. This is a consequence of the low electrical resistance and of good heat transfer coefficients in boiling LH2. Thus the conductors can produce higher magnetic field strengths and consequently higher motor torque and power. Designs, analysis and actual cryogenic motor tests show that such cryogenic motors could produce three or more times as much power per unit weight as turbine engines can, whereas conventional motors produce only 1/5 as much power per weight as turbine engines. This summer work has been done with Litz wire to maximize the current density. The current is limited by the amount of heat it generates. By increasing the heat transfer out of the wire, the wires can carry a larger current and therefore produce more force. This was done by increasing the surface area of the wire to allow more coolant to flow over it. Litz wire was used because it can carry high frequency current. It also can be deformed into configurations that would increase the surface area. The best configuration was determined by heat transfer and force plots that were generated using Maxwell 2D. Future work will be done by testing and measuring the thrust force produced by the wires in a magnetic field.

Kascak, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting the Impact of an 1859-calibre Superstorm on Satellite Resources

We have assembled a database of operational satellites in orbit as of 2004, and have developed a series of simple models to assess the economic impacts to this resource caused by various scenarios of superstorm events possible during the next sunspot cycle between 2010 and 2014. Despite the apparent robustness of our satellite assets against the kinds of storms we have encountered during the satellite era, our models suggest a potential economic loss exceeding $10(exp 11) for satellite replacement and lost profitability caused by a once a century single storm similar to the 1859 superstorm. From a combination of power system and attitude control system (the most vulnerable) failures, we estimate that 80 satellites (LEO, MEO, GEO) may be disabled as a consequence of a superstorm event. Additional consequences may include the failure of many of the GPS, GLONASS and Galileo satellite systems in MEO. Approximately 98 LEO satellites that normally would not have re-entered for many decades, may prematurely de-orbit in ca 2021 as a result of the temporarily increased atmospheric drag caused by the superstorm event occurring in 2012. The $10(exp 11) International Space Station may lose at least 15 kilometers of altitude, placing it in critical need for re-boosting by an amount that is potentially outside the range of typical Space Shuttle operations during the previous solar maximum in ca 2000, and at a time when NASA plans to decommission the Space Shuttle. Several LEO satellites will unexpectedly be placed on orbits that enter the ISS zone of avoidance, requiring some action by ground personnel and ISS astronauts to avoid close encounters. Radiation effects on astronauts have also been considered and could include a range of possibilities from acute radiation sickness for astronauts inside spacecraft, to near-lethal doses during EVAs. The specifics depends very sensitively on the spectral hardness of the accompanying SPE event. Currently, the ability to forecast extreme particle events and coronal mass ejections, or predict their fluences and geo-severity in the 24-hrs prior to the event, appears to be no better than 50/50. If the events of the 1859 superstorm serve as a guide, the scope of a contemporary superstorm will most certainly be an awesome event, but one that the vast majority of our other satellite resources may reasonably be expected to survive.

Odenwald, Sten↗

NASA NTRS2004

Kinematic Characteristics of the Posture Corrective Responses After 6 Hours Exposure to Support Withdrawal Environment

Posture disorders are an inevitable consequence of exposure to microgravity . However, the role of different sensorimotor and sensory factors on postural function at different stages of the exposure to microgravity still remains unknown. The results obtained in a 6 hr dry immersion (DI) study where chest pushes served as a pre- and post-immersion perturbation, and DI was used as an analog of microgravity suggest that in addition to vestibular contributions, postural control may be related to a reduction of support loading and consequent decline of the tone of anti-gravitational muscles. Analysis of postural video data in response to chest pushes obtained before and after DI indicate that the structure of corrective responses was modified so that postural perturbations from threshold to moderate pushes showed a significant rise in the amplitude of ankle and knee angular displacement. With push intensity near the submaximal level, equilibrium was maintained by the elimination of excessive degrees of freedom; as manifested by the restriction of the hip joints mobility when coupled with a reduction of the knee and ankle displacement. These results suggest that DI increases the sensitivity of the posture control system by making posture control more rigid reflecting a change of the weight bearing receptors.

Sayenko D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Spatially Complete Global Surface Albedos Derived from Terra/MODIS Data

Spectral land surface albedo is an important parameter for describing the radiative properties of the Earth. Accordingly it reflects the consequences of natural and human interactions, such as anthropogenic, meteorological, and phenological effects, on global and local climatological trends. Consequently, albedos are integral parts in a variety of research areas, such as general circulation models (GCMs), energy balance studies, modeling of land use and land use change, and biophysical, oceanographic, and meteorological studies. , Over five years of land surface anisotropy, diffuse bihemispherical (white-sky) albedo and direct beam directional hemispherical (black-sky) albedo from observations acquired by the MODIS instruments aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellite platforms have provided researchers with unprecedented spatial, spectral, and temporal information on the land surface s radiative characteristics. However, roughly 30% of the global land surface, on an annual equal-angle basis, is obscured due to persistent and transient cloud cover, while another 207% is obscured due to ephemeral and seasonal snow effects. This precludes the MOD43B3 albedo products from being directly used in some remote sensing and ground-based applications, climate models, and global change research projects. To provide researchers with the requisite spatially complete global snow-free land surface albedo dataset, an ecosystem-dependent temporal interpolation technique was developed to fill missing or lower quality data and snow covered values from the official MOD43B3 dataset with geophysically realistic values. The method imposes pixel-level and local regional ecosystem-dependent phenological behavior onto retrieved pixel temporal data in such a way as to maintain pixel-level spatial and spectral detail and integrity. The phenological curves are derived from statistics based on the MODIS MOD12Q1 IGBP land cover classification product geolocated with the MOD43B3 data.

King, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Properties of a Ni(sub 19.5)Pd(sub 30)Ti(sub 50.5) high-temperature shape memory alloy in tension and compression

Potential applications involving high-temperature shape memory alloys have been growing in recent years. Even in those cases where promising new alloys have been identified, the knowledge base for such materials contains gaps crucial to their maturation and implementation in actuator and other applications. We begin to address this issue by characterizing the mechanical behavior of a Ni19.5Pd30Ti50.5 high-temperature shape memory alloy in both uniaxial tension and compression at various temperatures. Differences in the isothermal uniaxial deformation behavior were most notable at test temperatures below the martensite finish temperature. The elastic modulus of the material was very dependent on strain level; therefore, dynamic Young#s Modulus was determined as a function of temperature by an impulse excitation technique. More importantly, the performance of a thermally activated actuator material is dependent on the work output of the alloy. Consequently, the strain-temperature response of the Ni19.5Pd30Ti50.5 alloy under various loads was determined in both tension and compression and the specific work output calculated and compared in both loading conditions. It was found that the transformation strain and thus, the specific work output were similar regardless of the loading condition. Also, in both tension and compression, the strain-temperature loops determined under constant load conditions did not close due to the fact that the transformation strain during cooling was always larger than the transformation strain during heating. This was apparently the result of permanent plastic deformation of the martensite phase with each cycle. Consequently, before this alloy can be used under cyclic actuation conditions, modification of the microstructure or composition would be required to increase the resistance of the alloy to plastic deformation by slip.

Noebe, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS2006

Autonomic Management of Space Missions

With NASA s renewed commitment to outer space exploration, greater emphasis is being placed on both human and robotic exploration. Even when humans are involved in the exploration, human tending of assets becomes cost-prohibitive or in many cases is simply not feasible. In addition, certain exploration missions will require spacecraft that will be capable of venturing where humans cannot be sent. Early space missions were operated manually from ground control centers with little or no automated operations. In the mid-l980s, the high costs of satellite operations prompted NASA, and others, to begin automating as many functions as possible. In our context, a system is autonomous if it can achieve its goals without human intervention. A number of more-or-less automated ground systems exist today, but work continues with the goal being to reduce operations costs to even lower levels. Cost reductions can be achieved in a number of areas. Ground control and spacecraft operations are two such areas where greater autonomy can reduce costs. As a consequence, autonomy is increasingly seen as a critical approach for robotic missions and for some aspects of manned missions. Although autonomy will be critical for the success of future missions (and indeed will enable certain kinds of science data gathering approaches), missions imbued with autonomy must also exhibit autonomic properties. Exploitation of autonomy alone, without emphasis on autonomic properties, will leave spacecraft vulnerable to the dangerous environments in which they must operate. Without autonomic properties, a spacecraft may be unable to recognize negative environmental effects on its components and subsystems, or may be unable to take any action to ameliorate the effects. The spacecraft, though operating autonomously, may then sustain a degradation of performance of components or subsystems, and consequently may have a reduced potential for achieving mission objectives. In extreme cases, lack of autonomic properties could leave the spacecraft unable to recover from faults. Ensuring that exploration spacecraft have autonomic properties will increase the survivability and therefore the likelihood of success of these missions. In fact, over time, as mission requirements increased demands on spacecraft capabilities and longevity, designers have gradually built more autonomicity into spacecraft. For example, a spacecraft in low-earth orbit may experience an out-of-bounds perturbation of its attitude (orientation) due to increased drag caused by increased atmospheric density at its altitude as a result of a sufficiently large solar flare. If the spacecraft was designed to recognize the excessive attitude perturbation, it could decide to protect itself by going into a safe-hold mode where its internal configuration and operation are altered to conserve power and its coarse attitude is adjusted to point its solar panels toward the Sun to maximize power generation. This is an example of a simple type of autonomic behavior that has actually occurred. Future mission concepts will be increasingly dependent on space system survivability enabled by more advanced types of autonomic behaviors

Hinchey, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Restricted Acoustic Modal Analysis Applied to Internal Combustor Spectra and Cross-Spectra Measurements

A treatment of the modal decomposition of the pressure field in a combustor as determined by two Kulite pressure measurements is developed herein. It is applied to a Pratt & Whitney PW4098 engine combustor over a range of operating conditions. For modes other than the plane wave the new part of the treatment is the assumption that there are distinct frequency bands in which the individual modes, including the plane wave mode, overlap such that if circumferential mode m and circumferential mode m-1 are present than circumferential mode m 2 is not. Consequently, in the analysis used herein at frequencies above the first cut-off mode frequency, only pairs of circumferential modes are individually present at each frequency. Consequently, this is a restricted modal analysis. A new result is that the successful use of the same modal span frequencies over a range of operating conditions for this particular engine suggests that the temperature, T, and the velocity, v, of the flow at each operating condition are related by c(sup 2)-v(sup 2) = a constant where c is the speed of sound.

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton↗

NASA NTRS1993

InGaAs Detectors for Miniature Infrared Instruments

In the past year, there has been substantial impetus for NASA to consider missions that are of relatively low cost as a trade off for a higher new mission launch rate. To maintain low mission cost, these missions will be of short duration and will use smaller launch vehicles (e.g. Pegasus). Consequently, very low volume, very low mass instrument (a.k.a. miniature instrument) payloads will be required. Furthermore, it is anticipated that the number of instruments flown on a particular mission will also be highly constrained; consequently increased instrument capability will also be desired. In the case of infrared instruments, focal planes typically require cooling to ensure high performance of the detectors, especially in the case of spectrometers where high D* is necessary. In this paper, we discuss the InGaAs detector technology and its potential.

Krabach, T. N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Land surface water cycles observed with satellite sensors

Acceleration of the global water cycle may lead to increased global precipitation, faster evaporation and a consequent exacerbation of hydrologic extreme. In the U.S. national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change, two GCMs (CGCM1 and HadCM2) show a large increase in precipitation in the future over the southwestern U.S. particularly during winter (Felzer and Heard, 1999). Increased precipitation potentially has important impacts on agricultural and water use in the southeast U.S. (Hatch et al., 1999) and in the central Great Plains (Nielsen, 1997). A hurricane model predicts a 40% precipitation increase for severe hurricanes affecting southeastern Florida, which provokes substantially greater flooding that could negate most of the benefits of present water-management practices in this basin (Gutowski et al., 1994). Thus, it is important to observe the hydroclimate on a continuous longterm basis to address the question of increased precipitation in the enhanced water cycle.

droughts↗

NASA NTRS2006

Constellation Stretch Goals: Review of Industry Inputs

Many good ideas received based on industry experience: a) Shuttle operations; b) Commercial aircraft production; c) NASA's historical way of doing business; d) Military and commercial programs. Aerospace performed preliminary analysis: a) Potential savings; b) Cost of implementation; c) Performance or other impact/penalties; d) Roadblocks; e) Unintended consequences; f) Bottom line. Significant work ahead for a "Stretch Goal"to become a good, documented requirement: 1) As a group, the relative "value" of goals are uneven; 2) Focused analysis on each goal is required: a) Need to ensure that a new requirement produces the desired consequence; b) It is not certain that some goals will not create problems elsewhere. 3) Individual implementation path needs to be studied: a) Best place to insert requirement (what level, which document); b) Appropriate wording for the requirement. Many goals reflect "best practices" based on lessons learned and may have value beyond near-term CxP requirements process.

Lang, John↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Approach to Evaluate Precision and Inter-Laboratory Variability of Flammability Test Methods for Aerospace Materials

Materials selection for spacecraft is based on conventional flammability or ignition sensitivity acceptance tests. Current procedures for determining the inter-laboratory repeatability and reproducibility of aerospace materials flammability tests are not considering the dependence of data variability on test conditions and consequently attempts to characterize the precision of these methods were not successful. The inter-laboratory data variability is determined with tests conducted under arbitrary conditions, which consequently may not provide sufficient information to enable adequate determination of a method's precision. For evaluating the precision of NASA's flammability test methods, the protocol recommended includes selecting critical parameters and determining the 50% failure point by considering the specific failure criteria of each method using the critical parameter as a variable. Upon performing inter-laboratory round robin testing using this approach, the laboratories' performance could be evaluated by comparing the repeatability of the 50% failure point and/or the repeatability of critical conditions where the probabilities of passing and failing are unity, i.e., the transition zone repeatability. When a sufficient amount of data has been acquired with this method, an adequate estimation of precision of aerospace materials flammability test methods will be possible.

Hirsch, David↗

NASA NTRS2007

Human Error: A Concept Analysis

Human error is the subject of research in almost every industry and profession of our times. This term is part of our daily language and intuitively understood by most people however, it would be premature to assume that everyone's understanding of human error s the same. For example, human error is used to describe the outcome or consequence of human action, the causal factor of an accident, deliberate violations,a nd the actual action taken by a human being. As a result, researchers rarely agree on the either a specific definition or how to prevent human error. The purpose of this article is to explore the specific concept of human error using Concept Analysis as described by Walker and Avant (1995). The concept of human error is examined as currently used in the literature of a variety of industries and professions. Defining attributes and examples of model, borderline, and contrary cases are described. The antecedents and consequences of human error are also discussed and a definition of human error is offered.

Hansen, Frederick D.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Reply to "Comment on 'A Self-Consistent Model of the Interacting Ring Current Ions and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves, Initial Results: Waves and Precipitation Fluxes' and 'Self-Consistent Model of the Magnetospheric Ring Current and Propagating Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: Waves in Multi-Ion Magnetosphere' by Khazanov et al. et al."

It is well-known that the effects of electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves on ring current (RC) ion and radiation belt (RB) electron dynamics strongly depend on such particle/wave characteristics as the phase-space distribution function, frequency, wavenormal angle, wave energy, and the form of wave spectral energy density. The consequence is that accurate modeling of EMIC waves and RC particles requires robust inclusion of the interdependent dynamics of wave growth/damping, wave propagation, and[ particles. Such a self-consistent model is being progressively developed by Khazanov et al. [2002, 2006, 2007]. This model is based on a system of coupled kinetic equations for the RC and EMIC wave power spectral density along with the ray tracing equations. Thome and Home [2007] (hereafter referred to as TH2007) call the Khazanov et al. [2002, 2006] results into question in their Comment. The points in contention can be summarized as follows. TH2007 claim that: (1) "the important damping of waves by thermal heavy ions is completely ignored", and Landau damping during resonant interaction with thermal electrons is not included in our model; (2) EMIC wave damping due to RC O + is not included in our simulation; (3) non-linear processes limiting EMIC wave amplitude are not included in our model; (4) growth of the background fluctuations to a physically significantamplitude"must occur during a single transit of the unstable region" with subsequent damping below bi-ion latitudes,and consequently"the bounce averaged wave kinetic equation employed in the code contains a physically erroneous 'assumption". Our reply will address each of these points as well as other criticisms mentioned in the Comment. TH2007 are focused on two of our papers that are separated by four years. Significant progress in the self-consistent treatment of the RC-EMIC wave system has been achieved during those years. The paper by Khazanov et al. [2006] presents the latest version of our model, and in this Reply we refer mostly to this paper.

Khazanov, G. V.↗