Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

A Theory of Immersion Freezing

Immersion freezing is likely involved in the initiation of precipitation and determines to large extent the phase partitioning in convective clouds. Theoretical models commonly used to describe immersion freezing in atmospheric models are based on the classical nucleation theory which however neglects important interactions near the immersed particle that may affect nucleation rates. This work introduces a new theory of immersion freezing based on two premises. First, immersion ice nucleation is mediated by the modification of the properties of water near the particle-liquid interface, rather than by the geometry of the ice germ. Second, the same mechanism that leads to the decrease in the work of germ formation also decreases the mobility of water molecules near the immersed particle. These two premises allow establishing general thermodynamic constraints to the ice nucleation rate. Analysis of the new theory shows that active sites likely trigger ice nucleation, but they do not control the overall nucleation rate nor the probability of freezing. It also suggests that materials with different ice nucleation efficiency may exhibit similar freezing temperatures under similar conditions but differ in their sensitivity to particle surface area and cooling rate. Predicted nucleation rates show good agreement with observations for a diverse set of materials including dust, black carbon and bacterial ice nucleating particles. The application of the new theory within the NASA Global Earth System Model (GEOS-5) is also discussed.

Ice Nucleating particle↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simulation of Vacuum Chamber Pressure Distribution with Surrogate Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification

A major challenge in understanding differences in electric propulsion performance in ground tests and in space operations concerns the pressure distribution within the test vacuum chamber. The chamber backpressure is much higher than experienced in space, modifying thruster performance and plume dynamics. Numerical simulation is a key element to determining the background conditions in non-ideal vacuum chamber environments. An important parameter for the accurate simulation of chamber backpressure is the probability that an atom will stick to a cryogenic panel used to pump away the plume gases. This quantity can be used to model vacuum pumps in particle-based kinetic numerical methods. In this work, a three-dimensional direct simulation Monte Carlo code is used to model neutral xenon atoms flowing from the anode of the H9 Hall Effect Thruster within the University of Michigan’s Large Vacuum Test Facility. Simulated pressures are compared with ion gauge pressure measurements to infer the effective sticking coefficient of the chamber’s vacuum pumps. A pressure predicting surrogate model is developed for inference of pump sticking coefficients and for uncertainty quantification. This information enables accurate and useful kinetic simulations of electric propulsion thruster plasma plumes in vacuum chambers.

DSMC↗
NASA NTRS1997

Detection of chaotic determinism in time series from randomly forced maps

Time series from biological system often display fluctuations in the measured variables. Much effort has been directed at determining whether this variability reflects deterministic chaos, or whether it is merely "noise". Despite this effort, it has been difficult to establish the presence of chaos in time series from biological sytems. The output from a biological system is probably the result of both its internal dynamics, and the input to the system from the surroundings. This implies that the system should be viewed as a mixed system with both stochastic and deterministic components. We present a method that appears to be useful in deciding whether determinism is present in a time series, and if this determinism has chaotic attributes, i.e., a positive characteristic exponent that leads to sensitivity to initial conditions. The method relies on fitting a nonlinear autoregressive model to the time series followed by an estimation of the characteristic exponents of the model over the observed probability distribution of states for the system. The method is tested by computer simulations, and applied to heart rate variability data.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2015

Abort Trigger False Positive and False Negative Analysis Methodology for Threshold-Based Abort Detection

This paper describes a quantitative methodology for bounding the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) probabilities associated with a human-rated launch vehicle abort trigger (AT) that includes sensor data qualification (SDQ). In this context, an AT is a hardware and software mechanism designed to detect the existence of a specific abort condition. Also, SDQ is an algorithmic approach used to identify sensor data suspected of being corrupt so that suspect data does not adversely affect an AT's detection capability. The FP and FN methodologies presented here were developed to support estimation of the probabilities of loss of crew and loss of mission for the Space Launch System (SLS) which is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The paper provides a brief overview of system health management as being an extension of control theory; and describes how ATs and the calculation of FP and FN probabilities relate to this theory. The discussion leads to a detailed presentation of the FP and FN methodology and an example showing how the FP and FN calculations are performed. This detailed presentation includes a methodology for calculating the change in FP and FN probabilities that result from including SDQ in the AT architecture. To avoid proprietary and sensitive data issues, the example incorporates a mixture of open literature and fictitious reliability data. Results presented in the paper demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in providing quantitative estimates that bound the probability of a FP or FN abort determination.

risk assessment↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Effects of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall and Management in Fire-Maintained Ecosystems

The combined effects of repeated fires, climate, and landscape features (e.g., edges) need greater focus in fire ecology studies, which usually emphasize characteristics of the most recent fire and not fire history. Florida scrub-jays are an imperiled, territorial species that prefer medium (1.2-1.7 m) shrub heights. We measured short, medium, and tall habitat quality states annually within 10 ha grid cells that represented potential territories because frequent fires and vegetative recovery cause annual variation in habitat quality. We used multistate models and model selection to test competing hypotheses about how transition probabilities between states varied annually as functions of environmental covariates. Covariates included vegetative type, edges, precipitation, openings (gaps between shrubs), mechanical cutting, and fire characteristics. Fire characteristics not only included an annual presenceabsence of fire covariate, but also fire history covariates: time since the previous fire, the maximum fire-free interval, and the number of repeated fires. Statistical models with support included many covariates for each transition probability, often including fire history, interactions and nonlinear relationships. Tall territories resulted from 28 years of fire suppression and habitat fragmentation that reduced the spread of fires across landscapes. Despite 35 years of habitat restoration and prescribed fires, half the territories remained tall suggesting a regime shift to a less desirable habitat condition. Measuring territory quality states and environmental covariates each year combined with multistate modeling provided a useful empirical approach to quantify the effects of repeated fire in combinations with environmental variables on transition probabilities that drive management strategies and ecosystem change.

Breininger, David R.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Simulation of Malaria Transmission among Households in a Thai Village using Remotely Sensed Parameters

We have used discrete-event simulation to model the malaria transmission in a Thailand village with approximately 700 residents. Specifically, we model the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. Some of the meteorological and environmental parameters used in the simulation are derived from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission and the Ikonos satellite data. Parameters used in the simulations reflect the realistic condition of the village, including the locations and sizes of the households, ages and estimated immunity of the residents, presence of farm animals, and locations of larval habitats. Larval habitats include the actual locations where larvae were collected and the probable locations based on satellite data. The output of the simulation includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Simulated transmission under homogeneous environmental condition was compared with that predicted by a SEIR model. Sensitivity of the output with respect to some extrinsic and intrinsic factors was investigated. Results were compared with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired over 4.5 years (June 1999 - January 2004) in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand. The simulation method is useful for testing transmission hypotheses, estimating the efficacy of insecticide applications, assessing the impacts of nonimmune immigrants, and predicting the effects of socioeconomic, environmental and climatic changes.

Kiang, Richard K.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Diagnostics of the technical condition of antifriction bearings

Shock pulse measurements that express the characteristic curves of rotational bearing resistance are used to diagnose possible deficiencies. Spectral analysis of frequency vibration tracings establishes probable causes for various anomalies in the geometric shape, surface frequency, contamination, etc.

Vitkute, A. E. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft

NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.

Matney, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

From Parasite Encounter to Infection: Multiple-Scale Drivers of Parasite Richness in a Wild Social Primate Population

Host parasite diversity plays a fundamental role in ecological and evolutionary processes, yet the factors that drive it are still poorly understood. A variety of processes, operating across a range of spatial scales, are likely to influence both the probability of parasite encounter and subsequent infection. Here, we explored eight possible determinants of parasite richness, comprising rainfall and temperature at the population level, ranging behavior and home range productivity at the group level, and age, sex, body condition, and social rank at the individual level. We used a unique dataset describing gastrointestinal parasites in a terrestrial subtropical vertebrate (chacma baboons, Papio ursinus), comprising 662 faecal samples from 86 individuals representing all age-sex classes across two groups over two dry seasons in a desert population. Three mixed models were used to identify the most important factor at each of the three spatial scales (population, group, individual); these were then standardised and combined in a single, global, mixed model. Individual age had the strongest influence on parasite richness, in a convex relationship. Parasite richness was also higher in females and animals in poor condition, albeit at a lower order of magnitude than age. Finally, with a further halving of effect size, parasite richness was positively correlated to day range and temperature. These findings indicate that a range of factors influence host parasite richness through both encounter and infection probabilities, but that individual-level processes may be more important than those at the group or population level.

Benavides J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

On the control, stability, and waiting time in a slotted ALOHA random-access system

This paper explores some of the boundaries in performance of slotted ALOHA systems by analyzing a simple and almost optimal centrally supervised control. The control results in a very simple Markov chain model and allows an examination of stability, conditional waiting time distribution of transmitting terminals, and many other system measures. The key to the simplicity is to have a probability of successful packet transmission that is independent of the number of transmitting terminals. In considering waiting time, we calculate the mean and other moments of the waiting time of a terminal when it enters the system to find (n - 1) other terminals already there competing for the channel. Under this control, the average time is proportional to n. The control requires exact knowledge of the number of terminals contending for the channel, and hence is not implementable, except as an approximation.

Ferguson, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The role of regolith adsorption in the transition from early to late Mars climate

Researchers reexamined radiative transfer models of early Mars that were advanced to show the existance of a greenhouse effect. These models were reexamined with regard to the effect that regolith adsorption may have had. It is argued that while the precipitation of carbonates has probably been an important process during Mars history, the rates at which this process could have taken place under early Mars conditions would have dropped sharply once liquid water was fairly scarce. Furthermore, conditions under which liquid water was available may have involved efficient recycling of carbonate so that steady state conditions rather than irreversible CO2 removal prevailed. In contrast, the growth of regolith surface area demands corresponding and predictable CO2 removal from the atmosphere-cap system and is fully capable of terminating any enhanced temperature regime on early Mars in the absence of any other effects.

Fanale, F. P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Effects of structural error on the estimates of parameters of dynamical systems

In this paper, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced for identifying a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of parameters are given. The effects of structural error on the parameter estimates for both the deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Implications of a recent lightning strike to a NASA jet trainer

On February 24, 1987, a NASA T-38A airplane experienced a lightning strike while approaching the Los Alamitos Army Aviation Facility in California. The airplane was landed safely at Los Alamitos with no injury to the crew members. However, the airplane suffered extensive fire damage in the center fuselage section. The NASA investigation board concluded that the airplane was struck by lightning, which resulted in an inflight explosion with subsequent fire. This paper describes the most probable cause of the incident, and the implications of this mishap to aircraft lightning protection and to the avoidance of those conditions conducive to lightning strikes to aircraft.

Fisher, Bruce D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Bivariate extreme value distributions

In certain engineering applications, such as those occurring in the analyses of ascent structural loads for the Space Transportation System (STS), some of the load variables have a lower bound of zero. Thus, the need for practical models of bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions with lower limits was identified. We discuss the Gumbel models and present practical forms of bivariate extreme probability distributions of Weibull and Frechet types with two parameters. Bivariate extreme value probability distribution functions can be expressed in terms of the marginal extremel distributions and a 'dependence' function subject to certain analytical conditions. Properties of such bivariate extreme distributions, sums and differences of paired extremals, as well as the corresponding forms of conditional distributions, are discussed. Practical estimation techniques are also given.

Elshamy, M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The optically thick C III spectrum. I - Term populations and multiplet intensities at lower optical depths

The C III spectrum is studied quantitatively under both optically thin and optically thick conditions, yielding term populations and line/multiplet intensities for column lengths from zero to 10 exp 18/sq cm. The roles of escape probabilities and line profiles in the calculation are discussed in some detail. It is shown that use of the fully integrated escape factor, rather than the more appropriate monodirectional escape probability, can lead to appreciable errors in calculated intensities. The results for populations and intensities make it possible to identify two unassigned features in the solar EUV spectrum of Vernazza and Reeves (1978) as C III multiplets, and to establish that an unidentified infrared solar feature at 8500.32 A, seen in both absorption (Fraunhofer) and emission (chromospheric) spectra, is the C III transition 2s3s(1S)-2s3p(1P). Voigt parameters for the C III lines and multiplets, obtained by a modified semiclassical method are tabulated. A new, unambiguous notation for the numerous line ratios present in a typical spectrum, which is argued to be an improvement over present arbitrary notations, is proposed and used.

Bhatia, A. K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mass movements on Venus - Preliminary results from Magellan cycle 1 observations

A preliminary assessment of mass movements and their geomorphic characteristics as determined from visual inspection of Magellan cycle 1 synthetic aperture radar images is described. The primary data set was a catalog of over 200 ten-inch square photographic prints of full-resolution mosaic image data records. Venus exhibits unambiguous evidence of mass movements at a variety of scales. Mass movements appear mostly in the form of block and rock movements; there is little evidence of regolith and sediment movements. Unique Venusian conditions may play a role in the creation of some mass movement features. Dark (smooth) surfaces surrounding many rockslide avalanches are probably fine materials emplaced as part of the mass movement process, as airfall, surface-hugging density flows, or coarse-depleted debris flows. The size and efficiency of emplacement of landslide deposits on Venus are comparable to those seen on Mars, which in turn generally resemble terrestrial occurrences.

Malin, Michael C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Development of global/chemistry model for jet-fuel thermal stability based on observations from static and flowing experiments

Two global-chemistry models for oxidative deposition of jet fuels are evaluated by integrating them into a Computational Fluid Dynamics with Chemistry (CFDC) code. A previously developed two-step global-chemistry model was found to be insufficient to describe the thermal-oxidation and -deposition rates associated with a Jet-A fuel. A new global-chemistry model has been developed systematically based on observations from flowing and static experiments. The global-autoxidation reaction is modified such that the reaction rate becomes zeroth-order with respect to the dissolved oxygen concentration. The generation of deposit-forming precursor is coupled with the autoxidation reaction by introducing a radical species ROO. A formulation for the sticking probability has also been developed. Deposition profiles are well represented by this new model under a variety of temperature and flow conditions. The model correctly predicts the changes in magnitude and spatial location of the deposition peak due to changes in flow. The CFDC model, which is designed for flowing systems, has been extended to static experiments. The model incorporates a non-depleting species F(sub s) representing all non-oxygen compounds responsible for deposition. Static experiments were found to provide a useful and inexpensive method for estimating the concentration of F(sub s) in the fuel.

V. R. Katta↗
NASA NTRS1961

Lateral Stability and Control Characteristics of a Four-Propeller Deflected-Slipstream VTOL Model Including the Effects of Ground Proximity

The investigation of the lateral-directional stability and control characteristics of a four-propeller deflected-slipstream VTOL model in the transition speed range was conducted in the 17-foot test section of the Langley 300-MPH 7- by 10-foot tunnel. A large fairing on top of the rear fuselage was needed to eliminate directional instability in the power-off flaps-retracted condition. Even with this fairing some instability at small sideslip angles remained for power-on conditions with low flap deflections. The configuration exhibited a high level of dihedral effect which, coupled with the directional instability, will probably produce an undesirable Dutch roll oscillation.

Kuhn, Richard E.↗