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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The Evolution of Galaxies and Clusters at High Spatial Resolution with Advanced X-ray Imaging Satellite (AXIS)

Stellar and black hole feedback heat and disperse surrounding cold gas clouds, launching gas flows off circumnuclear and galactic disks, producing a dynamic interstellar medium. On large scales bordering the cosmic web, feedback drives enriched gas out of galaxies and groups, seeding the intergalactic medium with heavy elements. In this way, feedback shapes galaxy evolution by shutting down star formation and ultimately curtailing the growth of structure after the peak at redshift 2–3. To understand the complex interplay between gravity and feedback, we must resolve both the key physics within galaxies and map the impact of these processes over large scales, out into the cosmic web. The Advanced X-ray Imaging Satellite (AXIS) is a proposed X-ray probe mission for the 2030s with arcsecond spatial resolution, large effective area, and low background. AXIS will untangle the interactions of winds, radiation, jets, and supernovae with the surrounding interstellar medium across the wide range of mass scales and large volumes driving galaxy evolution and trace the establishment of feedback back to the main event at cosmic noon. This white paper is part of a series commissioned for the AXIS Probe mission concept; additional AXIS white papers can be found at the AXIS website.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Open Cluster IC 1369 and Its Vicinity: Multicolor Photometry and Gaia DR2 Astrometry

The open cluster IC 1369, located in Cygnus close to the galactic equator at the 89.°6 longitude, and its vicinity are investigated by applying two-dimensional photometric classification of stars down to V = 19 mag measured in the Vilnius seven-color photometric system. Employing the Gaia DR2 coordinates, parallaxes, and proper motions, 143 cluster members are found having cluster membership probabilities ≥0.75. The hottest stars of the evolved main sequence are of spectral class B9. Distances to the cluster, determined by two methods based on the Gaia parallaxes, are 3280 and 3370 pc with an uncertainty of 400–500 pc. Employing the physical HR diagram with the coordinates logL/L{sub ⊙} versus logT{sub eff} and the Padova isochrones, the cluster age is found to be between 300 and 350 Myr. Among the cluster members we identified six red giants of spectral classes G5–G8 and luminosities II–III, 17 Am stars, one Ap star, and one B5 blue straggler. The extinction shows a steep rise up to ∼2.0 mag at 300–700 pc, caused by the extensions of the dust cloud LDN 970 and the Great Cygnus Rift, and up to ∼2.5 mag at the edge of the Perseus arm at 3.0 kpc. The extinction is almost constant between 0.9 and 2.5 kpc from the Sun. The average extinction of the cluster members is 2.54 mag. A systematic error of color excesses found in the Argonaut calculator results is discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations of Stratocumulus Advecting over Cold Water. Part I: Boundary Layer Decoupling

Abstract We explore the decoupling physics of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer (STBL) moving over cooler water, a situation mimicking warm-air advection (WADV). We simulate an initially well-mixed STBL over a doubly periodic domain with the sea surface temperature decreasing linearly over time using the System for Atmospheric Modeling large-eddy model. Due to the surface cooling, the STBL becomes increasingly stably stratified, manifested as a near-surface temperature inversion topped by a well-mixed cloud-containing layer. Unlike the stably stratified STBL in cold-air advection (CADV) that is characterized by cumulus coupling, the stratocumulus deck in the WADV is unambiguously decoupled from the sea surface, manifested as weakly negative buoyancy flux throughout the subcloud layer. Without the influxes of buoyancy from the surface, the convective circulation in the well-mixed cloud-containing layer is driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. In such a regime, the downdrafts propel the circulation, in contrast to that in CADV regime for which the cumulus updrafts play a more determinant role. Such a contrast in convection regime explains the difference in many aspects of the STBLs including the entrainment rate, cloud homogeneity, vertical exchanges of heat and moisture, and lifetime of the stratocumulus deck, with the last being subject to a more thorough investigation in Part II. Finally, we investigate under what conditions a secondary stratus near the surface (or fog) can form in the WADV. We found that weaker subsidence favors the formation of fog whereas a more rapid surface cooling rate does not. Significant Statement The low-lying blanketlike clouds, called stratocumulus (Sc), reflect much incoming sunlight, substantially modulating Earth’s temperature. While much is known about how the Sc evolves when it moves over warmer water, few studies examine the opposite situation of Sc moving over colder water. We used a high-resolution numerical model to simulate such a case. When moving over cold water, the Sc becomes unambiguously decoupled from the water surface, distinctive from its warm counterpart in which the Sc interacts with the water surface via intermittent cauliflower-like clouds called cumulus clouds. Such decoupling influences many aspects of the Sc–sea surface system, which combine to alter the ability of the Sc to reflect sunlight, thereby influencing the climate. This work laid the foundation for future work that quantifies the contribution of such a decoupled Sc regime to Earth’s radiative budget and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistics of Wide Pre-main-sequence Binaries in the Orion OB1 Association

Statistics of low-mass pre-main-sequence binaries in the Orion OB1 association with separations ranging from 0."6 to 20" (220 to 7400 au at 370 pc) are studied using images from the VISTA Orion mini survey and astrometry from Gaia. The input sample based on the CVSO catalog contains 1137 stars of K and M spectral types (masses between 0.3 and 0.9 M ⊙ ), 1021 of which are considered to be association members. There are 135 physical binary companions to these stars with mass ratios above ~0.13. The average companion fraction is 0.09 ± 0.01 over 1.2 decades in separation, slightly less than, but still consistent with, the field. We found a difference between the Ori OB1a and OB1b groups, the latter being richer in binaries by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3. No overall dependence of the wide-binary frequency on the observed underlying stellar density is found, although in the Ori OB1a off-cloud population, these binaries seem to avoid dense clusters. The multiplicity rates in Ori OB1 and in sparse regions like Taurus differ significantly, hinting that binaries in the field may originate from a mixture of diverse populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

β -Nuclear-Recoil Correlation from $^6$$\mathrm{He}$ Decay in a Laser Trap

Here, we report the first precise measurement of a β-recoil correlation from a radioactive noble gas ( 6 He) confined via a magneto-optical trap. The measurement is motivated by the search for exotic tensor-type contributions to the charged weak current. Interpreted as tensor currents with right-handed neutrinos, the measurements yield |C T /C A | 2 ≤ 0.022 (90% confidence limit, C.L.). On the other hand, for left-handed neutrinos the limits are 0.007 < C T /C A < 0.111 (90% C.L.). The sensitivity of the present measurement is mainly limited by experimental uncertainties in determining the time response properties and the distance between the atom cloud and the microchannel plate used for recoil ion detection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geometric GNNs for charged particle tracking at GlueX

Nuclear physics experiments are aimed at uncovering the fundamental building blocks of matter. The experiments involve high-energy collisions that produce complex events with many particle trajectories. Tracking charged particles resulting from collisions in the presence of a strong magnetic field is critical to enable the reconstruction of particle trajectories and precise determination of interactions. It is traditionally achieved through combinatorial approaches that scale worse than linearly as the number of hits grows. Since particle hit data naturally form a point cloud and can be structured as graphs, graph neural networks (GNNs) emerge as an intuitive and effective choice for this task. In this study, we evaluate the GNN model for track finding on the data from the GlueX experiment at Jefferson Lab. We use simulation data to train the model and test on both simulation and real GlueX measurements. We demonstrate that GNN-based track finding outperforms the currently used traditional method at GlueX in terms of segment-based efficiency at a fixed purity while providing faster inferences. We show that the GNN model can achieve significant speedup by processing multiple events in batches, which exploits the parallel computation capability of graphical processing units (GPUs). Finally, we compare the GNN implementation on GPU and field-programmable gate array and describe the trade-off.

batched GNN pipeline↗
DOE OSTI2021

PowerGridworld: A Framework for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning in Power Systems [SWR-22-07]

NREL's PowerGridworld provides a modular simulation environment for training heterogenous, grid-aware, multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) policies at scale. The package enables the user to create component gym environments that can be composed into more complex agents. For example, a grid interactive building environment can be created by composing together component environments each encapsulating the building, PV, and battery physics. These multi-component environments can then be combined into multi-agent simulation where each agent's power consumption/injection becomes an input for solving the optimal power flow on a distribution feeder modeled in OpenDSS. Information from OpenDSS, such as bus voltages and line flows, can be included in the agents' observation spaces to enable grid-aware rewards. The default API for the PowerGridworld simulator conforms to RLLib's MultiAgent API and thus enables distributed training using HPC and cloud resources.

Biagioni, David↗
DOE OSTI2024

Europa modifies Jupiter’s 1 plasma sheet

Jupiter's plasma sheet has been understood to be primarily composed of Io-genic sulfur and oxygen, along with protons at lower mass density. These ions move radially away from Jupiter, filling its magnetosphere. The material in the plasma sheet interacts with Europa, which is also a source of magnetospheric pickup ions, primarily hydrogen and oxygen. Juno's thermal plasma instrument JADE, the Jovian Auroral Distributions Experiment, has provided comprehensive in situ observations of the composition of Jupiter's plasma sheet ions with its Time-of-Flight mass-spectrometry capabilities. Here, we present observations of the magnetospheric composition in the Europa-Ganymede region of Jupiter's magnetosphere. We find material from Europa is intermittently present at comparable densities to Io-genic plasma. The intermittency of Europa-genic signatures suggests Europa's neutral oxygen toroidal cloud is more localized to Europa's vicinity than its hydrogen cloud. These observations reveal a more complex and compositionally diverse magnetosphere than previously thought.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gas-phase synthesis of racemic helicenes and their potential role in the enantiomeric enrichment of sugars and amino acids in meteorites

The molecular origins of homochirality on Earth is not understood well, particularly how enantiomerically enriched molecules of astrobiological significance like sugars and amino acids might have been synthesized on icy grains in space preceding their delivery to Earth. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) identified in carbonaceous chondrites could have been processed in molecular clouds by circularly polarized light prior to the depletion of enantiomerically enriched helicenes onto carbonaceous grains resulting in chiral islands. However, the fundamental low temperature reaction mechanisms leading to racemic helicenes are still unknown. Here, by exploiting synchrotron based molecular beam photoionization mass spectrometry combined with electronic structure calculations, we provide compelling testimony on barrierless, low temperature pathways leading to racemates of [5] and [6]helicene. Astrochemical modeling advocates that gas-phase reactions in molecular clouds lead to racemates of helicenes suggesting a pathway for future astronomical observation and providing a fundamental understanding for the origin of homochirality on early Earth.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elucidating the chemical dynamics of the elementary reactions of the 1-propynyl radical (CH 3 CC; X 2 A 1 ) with 2-methylpropene ((CH 3 ) 2 CCH 2 ; X 1 A 1 )

Exploiting the crossed molecular beam technique, we studied the reaction of the 1-propynyl radical (CH 3 CC; X 2 A 1 ) with 2-methylpropene (isobutylene; (CH 3 ) 2 CCH 2 ; X 1 A 1 ) at a collision energy of 38 ± 3 kJ mol –1 . The experimental results along with ab initio and statistical calculations revealed that the reaction has no entrance barrier and proceeds via indirect scattering dynamics involving C 7 H 11 intermediates with lifetimes longer than their rotation period(s). The reaction is initiated by the addition of the 1-propynyl radical with its radical center to the π-electron density at the C1 and/or C2 position in 2-methylpropene. Further, the C 7 H 11 intermediate formed from the C1 addition either emits atomic hydrogen or undergoes isomerization via [1,2-H] shift from the CH 3 or CH 2 group prior to atomic hydrogen loss preferentially leading to 1,2,4-trimethylvinylacetylene (2-methylhex-2-en-4-yne) as the dominant product. The molecular structures of the collisional complexes promote hydrogen atom loss channels. RRKM results show that hydrogen elimination channels dominate in this reaction, with a branching ratio exceeding 70%. Since the reaction of the 1-propynyl radical with 2-methylpropene has no entrance barrier, is exoergic, and all transition states involved are located below the energy of the separated reactants, bimolecular collisions are feasible to form trimethylsubstituted 1,3-enyne (p1) via a single collision event even at temperatures as low as 10 K prevailing in cold molecular clouds such as G+0.693. As a result, the formation of trimethylsubstituted vinylacetylene could serve as the starting point of fundamental molecular mass growth processes leading to di- and trimethylsubstituted naphthalenes via the HAVA mechanism.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic structure simulations in the cloud computing environment

The transformative impact of modern computational paradigms and technologies, such as high-performance computing, quantum computing, and cloud computing, has opened up profound new opportunities for scientific simulations. Scalable computational chemistry is one beneficiary of this technological progress. The main focus of this paper is on the performance of various quantum chemical formulations, ranging from low-order methods to high-accuracy approaches, implemented in different computational chemistry packages, such as NWChem, NWChemEx, SPEC, ExaChem, and FLOSIC codes on the Azure Quantum Element (AQE) Microsoft cloud services. We pay particular attention to the intricate workflows for performing composite chemistry simulations, associated data curation, and mechanisms for accuracy assessment, as defined by the enabling cloud Computational Chemistry as a Service (CCaaS). Our focus also extends to Arrows' automated workflow for high throughput simulations. Finally, we provide a perspective on the role of cloud computing in supporting the mission of leadership computational facilities (LCFs).

computational chemistry, electronic structure, Clo↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Impact of the Organic Aerosol Phase State on Multiphase OH Reactive Uptake Kinetics and the Resultant Heterogeneous Oxidation Timescale of Organic Aerosol in the Amazon Rainforest

Accurate predictions of chemical lifetime, i.e., oxidation timescale and change in the mass of organic aerosols (OAs) in atmospheric models, are critical to quantify the impacts of OA on aerosol–cloud interactions, radiative forcing, and air quality. The heterogeneous oxidation of OA by hydroxyl (OH) radicals is a key process governing OA mass changes during their oxidation. Recently, laboratory observations of the OH uptake coefficient (γ OH ) and heterogeneous reaction rate (k het,OH ) for different OA systems with varying phase states have been combined to develop a new parameterization of γ OH and k het,OH as a function of the OA phase state, i.e., viscosity (η OA ). Here, in this work, we use a recently published viscosity prediction framework to analyze the new γ OH and k het,OH parameterization with a box model. Subsequently, we implement this box model to predict γ OH and k het,OH over the Amazon rainforest in the dry-to-wet transition season with both significant biomass burning and biogenic influences. Relevant parameters within our box model are specified based on detailed regional model simulations over the Amazon using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). η OA is predicted as a function of species volatility, OA composition (including water uptake) along with ambient relative humidity (RH), and temperature. Based on ambient conditions simulated by WRF-Chem over the entire atmospheric column, we use the box model to predict the upper bounds of the heterogeneous oxidation timescale of OA. Based on previous laboratory measurements, we assume that this heterogeneous OH oxidation causes fragmentation (carbon loss) of OA, followed by the evaporation of the fragmented molecules that results in the exponential decay of OA. We predict that the oxidation timescale of OA is ~1 month near the Earth’s surface in the pristine Amazonian background because of low OH concentrations. But OA is oxidized more rapidly within urban and wildfire plumes near the Earth’s surface with an order of magnitude higher OH concentrations compared to the pristine background, causing the simulated oxidation timescale of OA to be much shorter, ~3–4 days. At 3–5 km altitudes where biomass burning OA is predicted to be semisolid, the heterogeneous oxidation timescale is estimated as ~6 days to 3 weeks and decreases with increasing OH concentrations within plumes. We show that the simulated mass loss of OA is strongly size-dependent, where smaller particles oxidize more rapidly compared to larger particles due to their greater per-particle surface area-to-volume ratio. Increasing urbanization and deforestation in the Amazon in the future might increase OH concentrations in the background Amazon, causing faster oxidation of OA. At higher altitudes above liquid clouds, especially in the upper troposphere where temperatures approach ~250 K, future measurements are needed to reduce the uncertainties related to the mass loss of OA at colder temperatures and low relative humidity conditions due to its heterogeneous OH oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Triple-Moment Representation of Ice in the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) Microphysics Scheme

In the original Predicted Particle Properties (P3) bulk microphysics scheme, all ice-phase hydrometeors are represented by one or more “free” ice categories, where the physical properties evolve smoothly through changes to the four prognostic variables (per category), and with a two-moment representation of the particle size distribution. As such, the spectral dispersion cannot evolve independently, which thus results in limitations in representation of ice—in particular, hail—due to necessary constraints in the scheme to prevent excessive gravitational size sorting. To overcome this, P3 has been modified to include a three-moment representation of the size distribution of each ice category through the addition of a fifth prognostic variable, the sixth moment of the size distribution. The details of the three-moment ice parameterization in P3 are provided. The behavior of the modified scheme, with the single-ice-category configuration, is illustrated through simulations in a simple 1D kinematic model framework as well as with near large-eddy-resolving (250-m grid spacing) 3D simulations of a hail-producing supercell. It is shown that the three-moment ice configuration controls size sorting in a physically based way and leads to an improved capacity to simulate large, heavily rimed ice (hail), including mean and maximum sizes and reflectivity, and thus an overall improvement in the representation of ice-phase particles in the P3 scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of the radiation budget during MOSAiC based on ground-based and satellite remote sensing observations

An accurate representation of the radiation budget is essential for investigating the impact of clouds on the climate system, especially in the Arctic, an environment highly sensitive to complex and rapid environmental changes. In this study, we analyse a unique dataset of observations from the central Arctic made during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in conjunction with state-of-the-art satellite products from CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) to investigate the radiative effect of clouds and radiative closure at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA). We perform a series of radiative transfer simulations using derived cloud macro- and microphysical properties as inputs to the simulations for the entire MOSAiC period, comparing our results to collocated satellite products and ice-floe observations. The radiative closure biases were generally within the instrumental uncertainty, indicating that the simulations are sufficiently accurate to reproduce the radiation budget during MOSAiC. Comparisons of the simulated radiation budget relative to CERES show similar values in the terrestrial flux but relatively large differences in the solar flux, which are attributed to a lower surface albedo and a possible underestimation of atmospheric opacity by CERES. While the simulation results were consistent with the observations, more detailed analyses reveal an overestimation of simulated cloud opacity for cases involving geometrically thick ice clouds. In the annual mean, we found that, during the MOSAiC expedition, the presence of clouds leads to a loss of 5.2 W m −2 of the atmosphere–surface system to space, while the surface gains 25.0 W m −2 and the atmosphere is cooled by 30.2 W m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Ice Water Content for Winter Storms from Millimeter-Wavelength Radar Measurements Using a Synthesis of Polarimetric and Dual-Frequency Radar Observations

The potential of millimeter-wavelength radar-based ice water content (IWC) estimation is demonstrated using a Ka-band Scanning Polarimetric Radar (KASPR) for the U.S. northeast coast winter storms. Two IWC relations for Ka-band polarimetric radar measurements are proposed: one that uses a combination of the radar reflectivity Z and the estimated total number concentration of snow particles N t and the other based on the joint use of Z, specific differential phase K DP , and the degree of riming f rim . A key element of the algorithms is to obtain the “Rayleigh-equivalent” value of Z measured at the Ka band, i.e., the corresponding Z at a longer radar wavelength for which Rayleigh scattering takes place. This is achieved via polarimetric retrieval of the mean volume diameter D m and incorporating the relationship between the dual-wavelength ratio DWR S/Ka and D m . Those techniques allow for retrievals from single millimeter-wavelength radar measurements and do not necessarily require the dual-wavelength ratio (DWR) measurements, if the DWR–D m relation and Rayleigh assumption for Ka-band K DP are valid. Comparison between the quasivertical profile product obtained from KASPR and the columnar vertical profile product generated from the nearby WSR-88D S-band radar measurements demonstrates that the DWR S/Ka can be estimated from the two close radars without the need for collocated radar beams and synchronized antenna scanning and can be used for determining the Rayleigh-equivalent value of Z. As a result, the performance of the suggested techniques is evaluated for seven winter storms using surface disdrometer and snow accumulation measurements.

Cloud retrieval↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-learning-based investigation of the variables affecting summertime lightning occurrence over the Southern Great Plains

Lightning is affected by many factors, many of which are not routinely measured, well understood, or accounted for in physical models. Several commonly used machine learning (ML) models have been applied to analyze the relationship between Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data and lightning data from the Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) in order to identify important variables affecting lightning occurrence in the vicinity of the Southern Great Plains (SGP) ARM site during the summer months (June, July, August and September) of 2012 to 2020. Testing various ML models, we found that the random forest model is the best predictor among common classifiers. When convective clouds were detected, it predicts lightning occurrence with an accuracy of 76.9 % and an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.850. Using this model, we further ranked the variables in terms of their effectiveness in nowcasting lightning and identified geometric cloud thickness, rain rate and convective available potential energy (CAPE) as the most effective predictors. The contrast in meteorological variables between no-lightning and frequent-lightning periods was examined for hours with CAPE values conducive to thunderstorm formation. Besides the variables considered for the ML models, surface variables and mid-altitude variables (e.g., equivalent potential temperature and minimum equivalent potential temperature, respectively) have statistically significant contrasts between no-lightning and frequent-lightning hours. For example, the minimum equivalent potential temperature from 700 to 500 hPa is significantly lower during frequent-lightning hours compared with no-lightning hours. Finally, a notable positive relationship between the intracloud (IC) flash fraction and the square root of CAPE ($\sqrt{CAPE}$) was found, suggesting that stronger updrafts increase the height of the electrification zone, resulting in fewer flashes reaching the surface and consequently a greater IC flash fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗