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At least 613 records · Page 34

Mesoscale and synoptic scale features of North Pacific weather systems observed with the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer on Nimbus 7

Employing data on integrated atmospheric water vapor, total cloud liquid water and rain rate obtainable from the Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), the frontal structure of several mid-latitude cyclones over the North Pacific Ocean as they approach the West Coast of North America in the winter of 1979. The fronts, analyzed with all available independent data, are consistently located at the leading edge of the strongest gradient in integrated water vapor. The cloud liquid water content, which unfortunately has received very little in situ verification, has patterns which are consistent with the structure seen in visible and infrared imagery. The rain distribution is also a good indicator of frontal location and rain amounts are generally within a factor of two of what is observed with rain gauges on the coast. Furthermore, the onset of rain on the coast can often be accurately forecast by simple advection of the SMMR observed rain areas.

Katsaros, K. B.↗

Development and Testing of the VAHIRR Radar Product

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) and Flight Rules (FR) are used for launches and landings at government and commercial spaceports. They are designed to avoid natural and triggered lightning strikes to space vehicles, which can endanger the vehicle, payload, and general public. The previous LLCC and FR were shown to be overly restrictive, potentially leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. A radar algorithm called Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR), along with new LLCC and FR for anvil clouds, were developed using data collected by the Airborne Field Mill II research program. VAHIRR is calculated at every horizontal position in the coverage area of the radar and can be displayed similar to a two-dimensional derived reflectivity product, such as composite reflectivity or echo tops. It is the arithmetic product of two quantities not currently generated by the Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler (WSR-88D): a volume average of the reflectivity measured in dBZ and the average cloud thickness based on the average echo top height and base height. This presentation will describe the VAHIRR algorithm, and then explain how the VAHIRR radar product was implemented and tested on a clone of the National Weather Service's (NWS) Open Radar Product Generator (ORPG-clone). The VAHIRR radar product was then incorporated into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS), to make it more convenient for weather forecasters to utilize. Finally, the reliability of the VAHIRR radar product was tested with real-time level II radar data from the WSR-88D NWS Melbourne radar.

Barrett, Joe III↗

Observing System Simulations for the AOS Mission

The Earth System Observatory (ESO) is NASA’s response to the recommendations of the 2017 Earth Sciences Decadal Survey conducted by the US National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. The ESO is being conceived as a set of fully integrated missions addressing 4 main Earth science focus areas including aerosols, clouds, convection and precipitation (jointly re-ferred to as AOS, the Atmosphere Observing System). ESO ground breaking observations will provide critical measurements to address societally relevant problems in climate change, natural hazard mitiga-tion, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. A critical element of the AOS observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sen-sors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires compre-hensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, at-mospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of the observing system simulation capabilities being developed for AOS, including global storm resolving nature runs, detailed instrument and retrieval simulators, as well as fast retrieval emulators for instrumenting climate models. This simulation environment, being developed under NASA’s open-source science initiative, will permit us to explore how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data, well before launch.

Arlindo da Silva↗

Global-scale, intraseasonal fluctuations of diabatic forcing of the atmosphere

Fields of diabatic heating rate estimates (H) for 5-day periods were calculated from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses since 1985 as the residual of the dry thermodynamic equation. Included in these fields are the horizontal and vertical divergences of heat for both mean and eddy statistics. Previous work dealt with 4-day periods, however, with the emphasis in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) for 5-day period totals the change was made to accommodate the GPCP product. H has long been associated with cold tropical cloud-top temperatures as measured by polar orbiting outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) sensors. Correlations between H and OLR fields on three time scales indicate a moderate amount of agreement. For periods less than 90 days, significant negative correlations are found between H and OLR for (1) tropical and NH midlatitude oceanic areas, and (2) for zonal and hemispheric mean values. Positive correlations are seen in NH mean and continental areas of N. Africa, N. America, N. Asia and Antarctica. These latter results reflect seasonal heating and cooling. Comparisons have been made between H as H as calculated from the ECMWF analyses and output from the CCM1 T42 simulations. The CCM1 tends to have a more cellular structure with more heating (precipitation) over land versus that observed (ECMWF) over oceans.

Christy, John R.↗

Diagnosing convective instability using VAS data

The utility of combining visible and various infrared images from the VAS to produce a forecasting tool, that can be available on a near real time basis, to predict severe weather development is shown. Areas where dry air in the midtroposphere overlays substantial moisture at low levels are used to diagnose mesoscale regions that have the potential for being convectively unstable before the onset of severe convection. Specifically, 6.7 micron water vapor imagery, used for isolating regions of substantial midlevel dryness, are combined with images of low level clouds or with split-window low level moisture images to delineate regions that have the potential for convective instability. In areas where scattered low level clouds are present, computer generated, color image combinations are used to isolate those warm, low level clouds that are in potential convectively unstable environments from clouds that exist under a deeply moist atmosphere. In clear regions, the split window technique is used for delineating areas of substantial boundary layer moisture. These images are again computer overlayed by the midlevel dryness to produce a color coded image of potential convective instability.

Petersen, R. A.↗

AVHRR-Based Polar Pathfinder Products: Evaluation, Enhancement, and Transition to MODIS

The AVHRR-Based Polar Pathfinder (APP) products include calibrated AVHRR channel data, surface temperatures, albedo, satellite scan and solar geometries, and a cloud mask composited into twice- per-day images, and daily averaged fields of sea ice motion, for regions poleward of 50 deg. latitude. Our goals under this grant, in general, are four-fold: 1. To quantify the APP accuracy and sources of error by comparing Pathfinder products with field measurements. 2. To determine the consistency of mean fields and trends in comparison with longer time series of available station data and forecast model output. 3. To investigate the consistency of the products between the different AVHRR instruments over the 1982-present period of the NOAA program. 4. To compare an annual cycle of the AVHRR Pathfinder products with MODIS to establish a baseline for extending Pathfinder-type products into the new ESE period. Year One tasks include intercomparisons of the Pathfinder products with field measurements, testing of algorithm assumptions, collection of field data, and further validation and possible improvement of the multi-sensor ice motion fields. Achievements for these tasks are summarized below.

Fowler, Charles↗

GEOS S2S Version 3: The New NASA/GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

The NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) released Version 2 of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecast system in the fall of 2017, and it has been producing near-real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts and a weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation record since then. A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system (Version 3) was released by the GMAO at the end of 2019. The new version runs at higher oceanic resolution than the previous (approximately 1/2 degree for the atmosphere, 1/4 degree for the ocean), and includes interactive earth system model components not typically present in seasonal prediction systems (two moment cloud microphysics for aerosol indirect effect and an interactive aerosol model). The weakly coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation system now includes assimilation of sea surface salinity, that has been shown to result in improved ocean mixed layer simulation and ENSO prediction skill.

Molod, Andrea↗

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗

Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Estimation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite: Methodology - Part 1

Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) investigates the critical role that clouds and aerosols play in modulating the radiative energy flow within the Earth-atmosphere system. CERES builds upon the foundation laid by previous missions, such as the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment, to provide highly accurate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes together with coincident cloud and aerosol properties inferred from high-resolution imager measurements. This paper describes the method used to construct empirical angular distribution models (ADMs) for estimating shortwave, longwave, and window TOA radiative fluxes from CERES radiance measurements on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. To construct the ADMs, multiangle CERES measurements are combined with coincident high-resolution Visible Infrared Scanner measurements and meteorological parameters from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data assimilation product. The ADMs are stratified by scene types defined by parameters that have a strong influence on the angular dependence of Earth's radiation field at the TOA. Examples of how the new CERES ADMs depend upon the imager-based parameters are provided together with comparisons with existing models.

Loeb, N. G.↗

Long Term Stability Monitoring of Aqua MODIS Thermal Emissive Bands through Radiative Transfer Modeling

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Aqua has been in operation providing continuous global observations for science research and applications since 2002. The long-term stability of thermal emissive bands (TEBs) of Aqua MODIS was monitored through inter-comparisons with measurements by hyperspectral infrared sensors, such as AIRS on Aqua and IASI on MetOp satellite, or through long term vicarious monitoring over cold targets, such as Dome- C and deep convective clouds (DCC). In this paper, a radiative transfer modeling-based simulation model using Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is developed to perform the long-term monitoring of the stability of TEBs of Aqua MODIS. CRTM is a fast-radiative transfer model for calculations of radiances for satellite infrared radiometers and is able to output infrared radiance and brightness temperature at spectral bands of MODIS. Long term European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis data, such as temperature and humidity profiles, are used as inputs to the CRTM simulation. By confining the area of interest to be over low to middle latitude ocean, the long-term stabilities of selected Aqua MODIS TEBs are monitored through Observation–Background (O-B) brightness temperature (BT) bias between MODIS measurements and BT retrieval from CRTM simulation. The consistency and relative stability between Aqua MODIS and ECMWF reanalysis data for surface channels of MODIS are evaluated. In addition, the radiative transfer modeling with CRTM enables us to evaluate the impacts of long term variation of global CO2 distribution on the O-B BT biases for CO2 channels of Aqua MODIS through comparison of simulations with constant or long term variable CO2 as inputs. The O-B analysis with RTM show that Aqua MODIS surface channels are all radiometrically stable with yearly BT bias drift less than 0.004K/year for B20, B22, B23 and ~0.01K/year for B31 and B32. The CO2 absorption channels of Aqua MODIS, e.g. B33-B36, are stable with BT bias drift < 0.005K/year.

MODIS↗

Photochemical trajectory modelling studies of the 1987 Antarctic spring vortex

Simulations of Antarctic ozone photochemistry performed using a photochemical model integrated along air parcel trajectories are described. This type of model has a major advantage at high latitudes of being able to simulate correctly the complex interaction between photolysis and temperature fields, which, because of the polar night cannot be represented accurately in a zonally averaged framework. Isentropic air parcel trajectories were computed using Meteorological Office global model analyses and forecast fields from positions along the ER-2 flight paths during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment in Austral Spring 1987. A photochemical model is integrated along these trajectories using the aircraft observations to initialize constituent concentrations. The model includes additional reactions of the ClO dimer and also bromine reactions, which are thought to play a significant role in Antarctica. The model also includes heterogeneous reactions which are invoked when the air parcel passes through a polar stratospheric cloud (PSC). The existence of a PSC is determined throughout the course of the model integration from the parcel temperature and the saturated vapour pressure of water over an assumed H2O/HNO3 mixture. The air parcel temperature is used to determine the saturated vapor pressure of HNO3 over the same mixture. Mixing ratios which exceed saturation result in condensation of the excess in the model and hence lead to a reduction of the amount of gas phase NO2 available for chemical reaction.

Austin, J.↗

Snow Reflectance from LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper

In California 75% of the agricultural water supply comes from the melting Sierra Nevada snowpack. Basin-wide albedo measurements from the LANDSAT-4 Thematic Mapper could be used to better forecast the timing of the spring runoff, because these data can be combined with solar radiation calculations to estimate the net radiation budget. The TM is better-suited for this purpose than the MSS because of its large dynamic range. Saturation still occurs in bands 1-4, but is severe only in band 1. Differentiation of snow optical grain size is possible with TM band 4 through a moderately clear atmosphere. The TM band 5 can discriminate clouds from snow, and the combination of bands 2 and 5 appears best for snow mapping.

Dozier, J.↗

Meteorological aspects of cloud-to-ground lightning in the Kennedy Space Center region

This paper examines the meteorological environment in which cloud-to-ground lightning occurs at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) region during summer. Using the lightning patterns of central Florida, flashes from individual thunderstorms were analyzed for five low-level wind regimes during three summers. The results showed large differences between the number, timing, and location of flashes for varying flow regimes, with southwest flow being the most prolific producer of flashes in the KSC area. In the second part of the study, short-term forecasts of lightning were investigated using the divergence measured by the KSC surface wind network. An interval of about 1 hour was found from the beginning of a convergence event to first lightning. Monitoring 5-min surface convergence, in combination with understanding the climatology of lightning related to the daily flow regime, made it possible to isolate the lightning. Results were used successfully in operations at KSC.

Holle, Ronald L.↗

Experiments with the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) using the synthetic relative humidity

This study is intended to examine the impact of the synthetic relative humidity on the model simulation of mesoscale convective storm environment. The synthetic relative humidity is derived from the National Weather Services surface observations, and non-conventional sources including aircraft, radar, and satellite observations. The latter sources provide the mesoscale data of very high spatial and temporal resolution. The synthetic humidity data is used to complement the National Weather Services rawinsonde observations. It is believed that a realistic representation of initial moisture field in a mesoscale model is critical for the model simulation of thunderstorm development, and the formation of non-convective clouds as well as their effects on the surface energy budget. The impact will be investigated based on a real-data case study using the mesoscale atmospheric simulation system developed by Mesoscale Environmental Simulations Operations, Inc. The mesoscale atmospheric simulation system consists of objective analysis and initialization codes, and the coarse-mesh and fine-mesh dynamic prediction models. Both models are a three dimensional, primitive equation model containing the essential moist physics for simulating and forecasting mesoscale convective processes in the atmosphere. The modeling system is currently implemented at the Applied Meteorology Unit, Kennedy Space Center. Two procedures involving the synthetic relative humidity to define the model initial moisture fields are considered. It is proposed to perform several short-range (approximately 6 hours) comparative coarse-mesh simulation experiments with and without the synthetic data. They are aimed at revealing the model sensitivities should allow us both to refine the specification of the observational requirements, and to develop more accurate and efficient objective analysis schemes. The goal is to advance the MASS (Mesoscal Atmospheric Simulation System) modeling expertise so that the model output can provide reliable guidance for thunderstorm forecasting.

Chang, Chia-Bo↗

Electrification in Hurricanes over the Tropical Americas: Implication for Stratospheric Water Vapor

This study explores the relation between lightning activity and water vapor in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) over hurricane systems in the Tropical Americas. The hypothesis herein is that hurricanes that exhibit enhanced lightning activity are associated with stronger updrafts that can transport more moisture directly into the TTL (and subsequently into the tropical stratosphere) or even directly into the tropical stratosphere over this region. The TTL over the Tropical Americas, which includes the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, is of particular interest, because summertime cold point tropopause is the lowest in height and thus the warmest in temperature over the tropics. The latter condition implies higher saturation values and thus potential for more water vapor to enter the stratosphere. Climate forecast is very sensitive to stratospheric water vapor abundance, because of the key role that water vapor plays in regulating the chemical and radiative properties of the stratosphere. Given the potential for increases in hurricane intensity and frequency under predicted warmer conditions, it becomes essential to understand the effect of hurricanes on stratospheric water vapor. In this study, we use a combination of ground and space-borne observations as well as trajectory calculations. The observations include: cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), geostationary infrared observations from the National Climatic Data Center Hurricane Satellite (HURSAT) data set, cloud properties from Aqua-MODIS, and water vapor from Aura-MLS. We analyze hurricanes from the 2005 season when Aura-MLS data are available, namely: Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Our analysis consists of examining CG lightning, cloud-top properties, and TTL water vapor (i.e., 100 and 147 mb) over the hurricane while it remains over water in the Tropical Americas region. We investigate daily as well as diurnal statistical properties. The hurricanes analyzed in this study showed that lightning activity is negatively correlated with minimum infrared brightness temperature and positively correlated with 100-mb water vapor. An examination of the maxima in water vapor observed over the hurricane not only shows larger magnitudes, but also larger differences between water vapor averages and water vapor maxima over the hurricane as lightning activity increases. Trajectory calculations are performed using the Flextra model in order to investigate the fate of the moister air masses found in the TTL.

Pittman, Jasna V.↗

POLARRIS: A POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator

This paper introduces a synthetic polarimetric radar simulator and retrieval package, POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator (POLARRIS), for evaluating cloud‐resolving models (CRMs). POLARRIS is composed of forward (POLARRIS‐f) and inverse (retrieval and diagnostic) components (iPOLARRIS) to generate not only polarimetric radar observables (Zh, Zdr, Kdp, ρhv) but also radar‐consistent geophysical parameters such as hydrometeor identification, vertical velocity, and rainfall rates retrieved from CRM data. To demonstrate its application and uncertainties, POLARRIS is applied to simulations of a mesoscale convective system over the Southern Great Plains on 23 May 2011, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with both spectral bin microphysics (SBM) and the Goddard single‐moment bulk 4ICE microphysics. Statistical composites reveal a significant dependence of simulated polarimetric observables (Zdr, Kdp) on the assumptions of the particle axis ratio (oblateness) and orientation angle distributions. The simulated polarimetric variables differ considerably between the SBM and 4ICE microphysics in part due to the differences in their ice particle size distributions as revealed by comparisons with aircraft measurements. Regardless of these uncertainties, simulated hydrometeor identification distributions overestimate graupel and hail fractions, especially from the simulation with SBM. To minimize uncertainties in forward model, the particle shape and orientation angle distributions of frozen particles should be predicted in a microphysics scheme in addition to the size distributions and particle densities.

Toshi Matsui↗

Global crop production forecasting: An analysis of the data system problems and their solutions

Data related problems in the acquisition and use of satellite data necessary for operational forecasting of global crop production are considered for the purpose of establishing a measurable baseline. For data acquisition the world was divided into 37 crop regions in 22 countries. These regions represent approximately 95 percent of the total world production of the selected crops of interest, i.e., wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. Targets were assigned to each region. Limited time periods during which data could be taken (windows) were assigned to each target. Each target was assigned to a cloud region. The DSDS was used to measure the success of obtaining data for each target during the specified windows for the regional cloud conditions and the specific alternatives being analyzed. The results of this study suggest several approaches for an operational system that will perform satisfactorily with two LANDSAT type satellites.

Neiers, J.↗

NPP ATMS Snowfall Rate Product

Passive microwave measurements at certain high frequencies are sensitive to the scattering effect of snow particles and can be utilized to retrieve snowfall properties. Some of the microwave sensors with snowfall sensitive channels are Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has been developed recently. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. The model employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derive the probability of snowfall (Kongoli et al., 2015). In addition, a set of NWP model based filters is also employed to improve the accuracy of snowfall detection. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model (Yan et al., 2008). A method developed by Heymsfield and Westbrook (2010) is adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. NCEP CMORPH analysis has shown that integration of ATMS SFR has improved the performance of CMORPH‐Snow. The ATMS SFR product is also being assessed at several NWS Weather Forecast Offices for its usefulness in weather forecast.

Forecasting↗