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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2004

PARAGON: A Systematic, Integrated Approach to Aerosol Observation and Modeling

Aerosols are generated and transformed by myriad processes operating across many spatial and temporal scales. Evaluation of climate models and their sensitivity to changes, such as in greenhouse gas abundances, requires quantifying natural and anthropogenic aerosol forcings and accounting for other critical factors, such as cloud feedbacks. High accuracy is required to provide sufficient sensitivity to perturbations, separate anthropogenic from natural influences, and develop confidence in inputs used to support policy decisions. Although many relevant data sources exist, the aerosol research community does not currently have the means to combine these diverse inputs into an integrated data set for maximum scientific benefit. Bridging observational gaps, adapting to evolving measurements, and establishing rigorous protocols for evaluating models are necessary, while simultaneously maintaining consistent, well understood accuracies. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept represents a systematic, integrated approach to global aerosol Characterization, bringing together modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies to provide the machinery necessary for achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the Earth system. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models and establishing an accurate, consistent and cohesive long-term data record.

PARAGON↗
DOE OSTI2020

Meta-modeling strategy for data-driven forecasting

Accurately forecasting the weather is a key requirement for climate change mitigation. Data-driven methods offer the ability to make more accurate forecasts, but lack interpretability and can be expensive to train and deploy if models are not carefully developed. Here, we make use of two historical climate data sets and tools from machine learning, to accurately predict temperature fields. Furthermore, we are able to use low fidelity models that are cheap to train and evaluate, to selectively avoid expensive high fidelity function evaluations, as well as uncover seasonal variations in predictive power. This allows for an adaptive training strategy for computationally efficient geophysical emulation.

Skinner, Dominic J↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2020

Onslow Beach Washover Fan Morphology from 2012 to 2015

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.These grid files were created from data collected using a Riegl 3-D laser scanner. Millions of x, y, and z points from the F2 Washover Fan on Onslow Beach were processed using the MARS software package to define a bare-earth model. Grid files were imported into Golden Software Surfer version 19 for editing and exported from that application as .grd files. Files can be opened in Surfer or ArcMap, but the coordinate system information will be lost if opened in ArcMap. These data were collected to quantify the morphological changes that occur on a washover fan through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Abundance of spring‐ and winter‐active arthropods declines with warming

Abstract Because ectotherm activity and metabolism are sensitive to temperature, terrestrial arthropods may be especially responsive to ongoing climatic warming. Here, we quantified responses of arthropod abundance to two years of warming in an outdoor temperature manipulation experiment at Duke Forest, North Carolina, USA. Nine open‐top chambers were individually heated year‐round from 1.5° to 5.5°C above ambient temperature. From two years of monthly pitfall trapping, we collected and identified 4,468 arthropods representing 24 orders. We initially predicted that arthropods would experience the greatest negative effects of experimental warming during the summer months, when temperatures reach their yearly maximum and arthropods may be close to their maximum thermal tolerance limits. Instead, we found that the strongest negative effects on arthropod abundance occurred during the winter and spring, when ambient temperatures are relatively cooler, whereas the effects of experimental warming on abundance were not significant during the summer or fall. During the spring of 2012, the warmest spring on record for the southeastern USA, total arthropod abundance declined 20% per °C of experimental warming. Abundance declines were driven largely by flies (Diptera), which were the most abundant insect order, representing approximately a third of all arthropods collected. The most abundant arthropod family, Mycetophilidae (fungus gnats), declined 64% per °C of warming during the spring of 2012. Although previous research on climatic warming has focused on the impact of maximum yearly temperatures on organismal performance, our results are more consistent with the cool‐season sensitivity hypothesis, which posits that arthropods adapted for cooler conditions are likely to face the strongest negative effects of warming during the cooler seasons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

New CERES Data Examined for Evidence of Tropical Iris Feedback

New data products are available from the CERES instrument, a part of the NASA Earth Observing System. The Single Scanner Footprint (SSF) product combines radiative fluxes with extensive information on the cloud conditions in the footprint, which are retrieved using the co-orbiting imager instrument. These data have been analyzed to more accurately define the radiative properties for the various regions of the recently-proposed adaptive infrared Iris. A variety of ways of defining the cloudy moist region were examined. According to CERES, the net radiative flux for the cloudy moist region ranges between 28 and 54 W/m2 depending on the specific definition used. This is in contrast to the value of 123 W/m2 which was somewhat subjectively assigned by LCH. This simple model may miss many feedbacks in the climate system, but it should provide a rough range of the climate variations if the physics of the Iris is correct. There is some question whether the change in cloudy moist area with cloud-weighted SST actually represents a useful quantity, and whether extrapolating it from a regional variation to a global response to warmer climate is appropriate. Regardless, the current results show that the proposed Iris feedback is very much weaker when objectively-determined radiative properties are used in the model.

Chambers, Lin H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Hydroclimatic Assessment of Future Reservoir and Hydropower Operations in the U.S.

The engineering of rivers by dams is a formative feature of human-nature systems and the interconnectivity of water, energy, and the climate. Sufficient and broad-based representations of dams in large-scale hydrological models prove essential to mapping their extensive regulation of river flow and biogeochemistry and gauging climate-linked provisions, including freshwater supply and hydropower. We present an integrated modeling framework to investigate future streamflow and hydropower generation in the Contiguous U.S. (1990–2075), leveraging an ensemble of six downscaled and bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the high-end SSP585 scenario of the CMIP6. To achieve this, we develop a reservoir operations and parameterization scheme for 1,384 dams in a high-resolution river network, including simulated hydropower generation for 326 dams. For the GCM ensemble mean, we simulate a widespread increase in regulated streamflow into the late-century (11% annual and 17% in winter for the dam median) with region-specific changes in summer streamflow that feature prominent declines in the Northwest (−7%). Mediation by reservoirs is shown to dampen intra-annual streamflow changes, delivering additional summer releases that partially mitigate declining flows. Total hydropower generation is projected to increase modestly (+3%), with boosted generation in the winter (+9%) and spring (+5%) offsetting declined summer generation (−3.4%), suggesting strong adaptation potential for hydropower in the future energy portfolio. Further analysis reveals that the choice of GCM, particularly in western regions, has significant bearing on projected streamflow and hydropower changes.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the City-Scale Impacts of Impervious Surfaces on Groundwater Recharge Potential: An Urban Application of WRF–Hydro

Decades of urbanization have created sprawling, complex, and vulnerable cities, half of which are located in water-scarce areas. With the looming effects of climate change, including increasing droughts and water shortages, there is an urgent need to better understand how urbanization impacts the water cycle at city scale. Impervious surfaces disrupt the natural flow of water, affecting groundwater recharge in water-scarce cities, such as Los Angeles, looking to harness local water resources. In the face of growing water demand, informing on opportunities to maximize potential groundwater recharge can help increase cities’ resilience. WRF–Hydro, a physics-based hydrological modeling system, capable of resolving atmospheric, land surface, and hydrological processes at city scale, is adapted to represent urban impervious surfaces. The modified model is used to assess the hydrological implications of historical urbanization. Pre- and post-urban scenarios are used to quantify the impacts of impervious surfaces on the local water budget. Our results show that urbanization in LA has vastly decreased the potential for groundwater recharge, with up to half of the water inflow being redirected from infiltration in highly urbanized watersheds, while doubling surface runoff’s share of the city’s water budget, from ~15% to 30%. This study not only sheds light on the role of imperviousness on groundwater recharge in water-scarce cities, but also offers a robust and transferable tool for the management of urban land and water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2018

Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields Under Climate Change

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Basso, B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Physics Representation of Deep Learning Models in Environmental Applications

Deep learning (DL) models have been popular in earth and environmental modeling and analysis, which exhibit huge potential in capturing and reconstructing the non-linearity of relevant environmental processes. They are extensively used as analytical tools or emulators for multiple domains (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and biogeochemistry). Despite their success, their internal working mechanism remains largely unknown. Such a lack of knowledge hinders the identification of physically consistent models that are fully adaptive to non-stationary climate, as well as the development of physics-informed machine learning such as physics-informed neural network (PINN). To establish preliminary knowledge and framework of such physics representation evaluation, this project focuses on an improved understanding of DL models in the environmental applications. DL models are increasingly applied to environmental modeling and prediction. However, they have been evaluated mostly from a performance perspective, and there is a gap in understanding how they represent the known physics internally. Such knowledge is especially critical when applying DL models under climate change conditions, where new inputs are likely outside the ranges of the training datasets. In this project, we reveal how the known physical processes are represented within DL models from both statistical and mechanistic perspectives. Leveraging the traditional model evaluations that focus more on the accuracies of predictions, we establish a framework that examines both the accuracy and physics representation of DL models. This analysis framework can identify DL models that make the correct predictions based on correct physics, thus enhancing the existing explainable artificial intelligence (explainable-AI) portfolio. It lays a foundation for developing novel metrics to evaluate the emerging DL models in environmental applications. This knowledge also informs the development of physics-informed DL models by revealing the direct connections between the known physical processes and specific model components or structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Diverse organic carbon dynamics captured by radiocarbon analysis of distinct compound classes in a grassland soil

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a large, dynamic reservoir composed of a complex mixture of plant- and microbe-derived compounds with a wide distribution of cycling timescales and mechanisms. The distinct residence times of individual carbon components within this reservoir depend on a combination of factors, including compound reactivity, mineral association, and climate conditions. To better constrain SOC dynamics, bulk radiocarbon measurements are commonly used to trace biosphere inputs into soils and to estimate timescales of SOC cycling. However, understanding the mechanisms driving the persistence of organic compounds in bulk soil requires analyses of SOC pools that can be linked to plant sources and microbial transformation processes. Here, we adapt approaches, previously developed for marine sediments, to isolate organic compound classes from soils for radiocarbon ( 14 C) analysis. We apply these methods to a soil profile from an annual grassland in Hopland, California (USA), to assess changes in SOC persistence with depth (down to 1 m). We measured the radiocarbon values of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC), total lipid extracts (TLEs), total hydrolyzable amino acids (AAs), and an acid-insoluble (AI) fraction from bulk and physically separated size fractions (< 2 mm, 2 mm–63 µm, and < 63 µm). Our results show that Δ 14 C values of bulk soil, size fractions, and extracted compound classes became more depleted with depth, and individual SOC components have distinct age–depth distributions that suggest distinguishable cycling rates. We found that AAs and TLEs cycle faster than the bulk soils and the AI fraction. The AI was the most 14 C-depleted fraction, indicating that it is the most chemically inert in this soil. Our approach enables the isolation and measurement of SOC fractions that separate functionally distinct SOC pools that can cycle relatively quickly (e.g., plant and microbial residues) from more passive or inert SOC pools (associated with minerals or petrogenic) from bulk soils and soil physical fractions. With the effort to move beyond SOC bulk analysis, we find that compound class 14 C analysis can improve our understanding of SOC cycling and disentangle the physical and chemical factors driving OC cycling rates and persistence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Climate Analytics as a Service

Climate science is a big data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the big data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). CAaaS combines high-performance computing and data-proximal analytics with scalable data management, cloud computing virtualization, the notion of adaptive analytics, and a domain-harmonized API to improve the accessibility and usability of large collections of climate data. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) provides an example of CAaaS. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of key climate variables. The effectiveness of MERRA/AS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, CAaaS is providing the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing data management and data analysis needs.

big data↗
DOE OSTI2022

ComEd Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook, Phase 1: Temperature, Heat Index, and Average Wind

This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook report presents the research and findings of a joint venture between Commonwealth Edison (ComEd) and Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) to evaluate future climate risks to ComEd’s infrastructure and operations. ComEd recognizes that its position as the state of Illinois’ largest electric utility, serving roughly 70% of the state’s population, underscores the importance for communities across Illinois to consider climate risk as they plan for future conditions. Climate impacts, such as more severe heatwaves or more frequent flood events, can disrupt the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity and create public health challenges. Taking a proactive approach to adapt to climate risks will help ensure that ComEd continues to serve its growing customer-base reliably and efficiently. This Climate Risk and Adaptation Outlook serves as an important first step to inform ComEd’s grid planning efforts, but Argonne and ComEd recognize that additional research beyond this report will be necessary to characterize future climate conditions more comprehensively throughout northern Illinois, to assess their impacts to grid assets and system operations, and to index effective adaptation options at an asset-level.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2013

Sea Ice Thickness, Freeboard, and Snow Depth products from Operation IceBridge Airborne Data

The study of sea ice using airborne remote sensing platforms provides unique capabilities to measure a wide variety of sea ice properties. These measurements are useful for a variety of topics including model evaluation and improvement, assessment of satellite retrievals, and incorporation into climate data records for analysis of interannual variability and long-term trends in sea ice properties. In this paper we describe methods for the retrieval of sea ice thickness, freeboard, and snow depth using data from a multisensor suite of instruments on NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne campaign. We assess the consistency of the results through comparison with independent data sets that demonstrate that the IceBridge products are capable of providing a reliable record of snow depth and sea ice thickness. We explore the impact of inter-campaign instrument changes and associated algorithm adaptations as well as the applicability of the adapted algorithms to the ongoing IceBridge mission. The uncertainties associated with the retrieval methods are determined and placed in the context of their impact on the retrieved sea ice thickness. Lastly, we present results for the 2009 and 2010 IceBridge campaigns, which are currently available in product form via the National Snow and Ice Data Center

sea ice thickness↗
NASA NTRS2014

Providing Global Change Information for Decision-Making: Capturing and Presenting Provenance

Global change information demands access to data sources and well-documented provenance to provide evidence needed to build confidence in scientific conclusions and, in specific applications, to ensure the information's suitability for use in decision-making. A new generation of Web technology, the Semantic Web, provides tools for that purpose. The topic of global change covers changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric composition and or chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life and support human systems. Data and findings associated with global change research are of great public, government, and academic concern and are used in policy and decision-making, which makes the provenance of global change information especially important. In addition, since different types of decisions benefit from different types of information, understanding how to capture and present the provenance of global change information is becoming more of an imperative in adaptive planning.

provenance tracking↗
DOE OSTI2023

Further understanding “severe” climate risk

What makes one climate risk more “severe” or “dangerous” than others? Acknowledging that the notion of dangerousness can substantially vary from one sociocultural context to another, this Perspective paper builds on recent literature to explore three notions that are estimated to be foundational to climate risk severity: the physical, ecological and social thresholds leading to transformational and possibly abrupt changes; the irreversibility of these changes; and the cascading effects within and across the systems affected. While not necessarily the most determining dimensions of risk, they deserve more attention and integration into frameworks to assess “severe” climate risk, such frameworks remaining under-developed. The paper also takes stock of issues related to the spatial scale(s) of and the evidence base for severe climate risks. It lands on four intertwined research directions across geographies, sectors and populations, that are hypothesized to play a critical role in the coming decade, from feeding the next IPCC cycle to more broadly supporting the development of anticipatory adaptation policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global projections of heat exposure of older adults

The global population is aging at the same time as heat exposures are increasing due to climate change. Age structure, and its biological and socio-economic drivers, determine populations’ vulnerability to high temperatures. Here we combine age-stratified demographic projections with downscaled temperature projections to mid-century and find that chronic exposure to heat doubles across all warming scenarios. Moreover, >23% of the global population aged 69+ will inhabit climates whose 95th percentile of daily maximum temperature exceeds the critical threshold of 37.5 °C, compared with 14% today, exposing an additional 177–246 million older adults to dangerous acute heat. Effects are most severe in Asia and Africa, which also have the lowest adaptive capacity. Our results facilitate regional heat risk assessments and inform public health decision-making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Inventory of AI-ready Benchmark Data for US Fires, Heatwaves, and Droughts

Extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts, have significant impacts on earth, environmental, and energy systems. Mechanistic and predictive understanding, as well as probabilistic risk assessment of these extreme weather events, are crucial for detecting, planning for, and responding to these extremes. Records of extreme weather events provide an important data source for understanding present and future extremes, but the existing data needs preprocessing before it can be used for analysis. Moreover, there are many nonstandard metrics defining the levels of severity or impacts of extremes. In this study, we compile a comprehensive benchmark data inventory of extreme weather events, including fires, heatwaves, and droughts. The dataset covers the period from 2001 to 2020 with a daily temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° (~55km×55km) over the continental United States (CONUS), and a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region, together with the co-located and relevant meteorological variables. By exploring and summarizing the spatial and temporal patterns of these extremes in various forms of marginal, conditional, and joint probability distributions, we gain a better understanding of the characteristics of climate extremes. The resulting AI/ML-ready data products can be readily applied to ML-based research, fostering and encouraging AI/ML research in the field of extreme weather. This study can contribute significantly to the advancement of extreme weather research, aiding researchers, policymakers, and practitioners in developing improved preparedness and response strategies to protect communities and ecosystems from the adverse impacts of extreme weather events. Usage Notes We presented a long term (2001-2020) and comprehensive data inventory of historical extreme events with daily temporal resolution covering the separate spatial extents of CONUS (0.5°×0.5°) and PNW(1km×1km) for various applications and studies. The dataset with 0.5°×0.5° resolution for CONUS can be used to help build more accurate climate models for the entire CONUS, which can help in understanding long-term climate trends, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, predicting future extreme events as well as understanding the implications of extreme events on society and the environment. The data can also be applied for risk accessment of the extremes. For example, ML/AI models can be developed to predict wildfire risk or forecast HWs by analyzing historical weather data, and past fires or heateave , allowing for early warnings and risk mitigation strategies. Using this dataset, AI-driven risk assessment models can also be built to identify vulnerable energy and utilities infrastructure, imrpove grid resilience and suggest adaptations to withstand extreme weather events. The high-resolution 1km×1km dataset ove PNW are advantageous for real-time, localized and detailed applications. It can enhance the accuracy of early warning systems for extreme weather events, helping authorities and communities prepare for and respond to disasters more effectively. For example, ML models can be developed to provide localized HW predictions for specific neighborhoods or cities, enabling residents and local emergency services to take targeted actions; the assessment of drought severity in specific communities or watersheds within the PNW can help local authorities manage water resources more effectively.

Lin, Xinming↗