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At least 613 records · Page 34

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Century-long timelines of herbarium genomes predict plant stomatal response to climate change

Abstract Dissecting plant responses to the environment is key to understanding whether and how plants adapt to anthropogenic climate change. Stomata, plants’ pores for gas exchange, are expected to decrease in density following increased CO 2 concentrations, a trend already observed in multiple plant species. However, it is unclear whether such responses are based on genetic changes and evolutionary adaptation. Here we make use of extensive knowledge of 43 genes in the stomatal development pathway and newly generated genome information of 191 Arabidopsis thaliana historical herbarium specimens collected over 193 years to directly link genetic variation with climate change. While we find that the essential transcription factors SPCH, MUTE and FAMA, central to stomatal development, are under strong evolutionary constraints, several regulators of stomatal development show signs of local adaptation in contemporary samples from different geographic regions. We then develop a functional score based on known effects of gene knock-out on stomatal development that recovers a classic pattern of stomatal density decrease over the past centuries, suggesting a genetic component contributing to this change. This approach combining historical genomics with functional experimental knowledge could allow further investigations of how different, even in historical samples unmeasurable, cellular plant phenotypes may have already responded to climate change through adaptive evolution.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

A simple soil mass correction for a more accurate determination of soil carbon stock changes

Abstract Agricultural soils can act as a sink for large quantities of soil organic carbon (SOC) but can also be sources of carbon to the atmosphere. The international standard for assessing SOC stock and measuring stock change stipulates fixed depth sampling to at least 30 cm. The tendency of bulk density (BD) to decrease with decreasing disturbance and increasing SOC concentration and the assumption of constant SOC and BD within this depth profile promotes error in the estimates of SOC stock. A hypothetical but realistic change in BD from 1.5 to 1.1 g cm −3 from successive fixed depth sampling to 30 cm underestimates SOC stock change by 17%. Significant effort has been made to evaluate and reduce this fixed depth error by using the equivalent soil mass (ESM) approach, but with limited adoption. We evaluate the error in SOC stock assessment and change generated from fixed depth measurements over time relative to the ESM approach and propose a correction that can be readily adopted under current sampling and analytical methods. Our approach provides a more accurate estimate of SOC stock accumulation or loss that will help incentivize management practice changes that reduce the environmental impacts of agriculture and further legitimize the accounting practices used by the emerging carbon market and organizations that have pledged to reduce their supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Human-induced changes in the global meridional overturning circulation are emerging from the Southern Ocean

In a warming climate, the Global Meridional Overturning Circulation (GMOC) is expected to change significantly with a risk of disrupting the global redistribution of ocean properties that sustains marine ecosystems, carbon cycle, and others. Here we make a novel attempt to utilize a diagnostic ocean & sea-ice model to estimate the GMOC and its interdecadal changes since the mid-1950s that are consistent with historical hydrographic observations. We find that significant changes in the GMOC have already occurred, most notably in the upper and lower overturning cells in the Southern Ocean. The former has expanded poleward and into denser water and strengthened by 3–4 Sv since the mid-1970s, while the latter has contracted and weakened by a similar rate during the same period. These changes are driven by the increasing Southern Hemisphere (SH) Ferrel cell and associated increases in the westerlies and the surface buoyancy loss over its sinking branch, and the increasing Antarctic meltwater discharge, in response to ozone depletion in the SH stratosphere and increasing atmospheric CO 2 . A large-scale readjustment of the GMOC seems to be underway in the South Atlantic and Indo-Pacific Oceans since the mid-2000s in response to the Southern Ocean changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Local structure effects of carbon-doping on the phase change material Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5

Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 is used in phase change memory, a nonvolatile memory technology, due to its phase change properties. The primary advantage of phase change memory over the state-of-the-art (flash memory) is its simple and small device geometry, which allows for denser nodes and lower power consumption. In phase change memory, resistive heating induces fast switching between the high resistance amorphous and low resistance crystalline phases, corresponding to storage of low and high digital states, respectively. However, the instability of the amorphous phase of Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 presents issues with processing and long-term data storage; such issues can be resolved by C doping, which stabilizes the amorphous phase and raises the crystallization temperature. To better understand the local structural effects of C doping on Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 , in situ Ge K-edge X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements were taken during heating of films with various C doping concentrations. Here, the range of structural transformation temperatures derived from X-ray absorption near-edge structure analysis across the C doping series proved narrower than crystallization temperatures reported in similar in situ X-ray diffraction experiments, which may reflect changes in local structure that precede long-range ordering during crystallization. In addition, rigorous extended X-ray absorption fine structure fitting across and between temperature series revealed effects of C doping on the rigidity of Ge–Te bonds at low (2 at% and 4 at%) C concentrations.

Langhout, John D.↗

The outburst of the changing-look AGN IRAS 23226-3843 in 2019

IRAS 23226-3843 has previously been classified as a changing-look active galactic nucleus (AGN) based on observations taken in the 1990s in comparison to X-ray data (Swift, XMM-Newton, and NuSTAR) and optical spectra taken after a very strong X-ray decline in 2017. In 2019, Swift observations revealed a strong rebrightening in X-ray and UV fluxes. We aimed to study this outburst in greater detail. We took follow-up Swift, XMM-Newton, and NuSTAR observations of IRAS 23226-3843 together with optical spectra (SALT and SAAO 1.9 m telescope) from 2019 until 2021. IRAS 23226-3843 showed a strong X-ray and optical outburst in 2019. It varied in the X-ray continuum by a factor of 5 and in the optical continuum by a factor of 1.6 within two months. This corresponds to a factor of 3 after correction for the host galaxy contribution. The Balmer and Fe II emission-line intensities showed comparable variability amplitudes during the outburst in 2019. The Hα emission-line profiles of IRAS 23226-3843 changed from a blue-peaked profile in the years 1997 and 1999 to a broad double-peaked profile in 2017 and 2019. However, there were no major profile variations in the extremely broad double-peaked profiles despite the strong intensity variations in 2019. One year after the outburst, IRAS 23226-3843 changed its optical spectral type and became a Seyfert type 2 object in 2020. Blue outflow components are present in the optical Balmer lines and in the Fe band in the X-rays. A deep broadband XMM-Newton/NuSTAR spectrum was taken during IRAS 23226-3843’s maximum state in 2019. This spectrum is qualitatively very similar to a spectrum taken in 2017, but by a factor of 10 higher. The soft X-ray band appears featureless. The soft excess is well modeled with a Comptonization model. A broadband fit with a power-law continuum, Comptonized soft excess, and Galactic absorption gives a good fit to the combined EPIC-pn and NuSTAR spectrum. In addition, we see a complex and broadened Fe K emission-line profile in the X-rays. The changing-look character in IRAS 23226-3843 is most probably caused by changes in the accretion rate – based on the short-term variations on timescales of weeks to months.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Metal-insulator transition and doping-induced phase change in Ge 2 Sb 2 Se 5x Te 5-5x

Ge 2 Sb 2 Te 5 (GST-225), a phase change material (PCM) with vast differences in the electrical and optical characteristics between its amorphous and crystalline phases, is revisited to explore its properties with Se doping. GST crystallizes in a layered hexagonal ground state, while the precursor to the amorphous state is a distorted rock salt like structure with vacancies at the Ge/Sb sites. Upon doping, liquid nitrogen quenched Ge 2 Sb 2 Se 5x Te 5-5x (GSST-225) exhibits a direct hexagonal-to-amorphous phase change above x > 0.8, whereas the rock salt like structure appears as a second phase with a volume fraction that does not change as a function of the doping. The phase change is accompanied by a metal-to-insulator transition (MIT), with a several orders of magnitude increase in the resistivity on approaching the amorphous state. Additionally, a similar MIT is observed even without the phase change in hexagonal crystals with doping levels above x >0.8. On warming amorphous GSST (x = 0.9) above room temperature, a reversal to the hexagonal phase occurs with a re-crystallization onset temperature (T c ) above 300 °C, much higher than the T c (~170 °C) of amorphous GST and an activation energy of 1.47 eV, which is comparable to good glass formers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gut microbiome changes with micronutrient supplementation in children with attention–deficit/hyperactivity disorder: the MADDY study

Micronutrients have demonstrated promise in managing inattention and emotional dysregulation in children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The biological mechanism by which micronutrients improve these symptoms remains unclear. One plausible pathway is through the gut-brain axis, the bi-directional communication network that links the gastrointestinal tract with the brain. This study examines changes in gut microbiome composition and diversity after micronutrients supplementation in children with ADHD (N=44) and sheds light on potential mechanisms responsible for the response to micronutrients as measured by clinician-rated global impression. Participants from this investigation represent a sub-group of the Micronutrients for ADHD in Youth (MADDY) study, a double blind randomized controlled study in which participants received either micronutrients or a placebo for 8 weeks, followed by an 8-week open label extension with micronutrients for all participants. Stool samples collected at baseline, week 8, and week 16 were analyzed using 16S rRNA amplicon sequencing targeting the V4 hypervariable region. Pairwise compositional analyses served as the primary means for investigating changes in gut microbiome composition between micronutrients versus placebo groups and responders versus non-responders. A significant change in microbial evenness, as measured by alpha diversity, was observed following micronutrients, and the phylum Actinobacteriota decreased in the micronutrients group compared to placebo. Additionally, two bacterial families: Rikenellaceae and Oscillospiraceae, exhibited a significant increase in change of gut microbiome composition following micronutrients between responders and non-responders. These findings suggest that micronutrients modulated the composition of the gut microbiome and point towards specific bacterial changes associated with response to micronutrients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

EVAP: A two-photon imaging tool to study conformational changes in endogenous Kv2 channels in live tissues

A primary goal of molecular physiology is to understand how conformational changes of proteins affect the function of cells, tissues, and organisms. Here, we describe an imaging method for measuring the conformational changes of the voltage sensors of endogenous ion channel proteins within live tissue, without genetic modification. We synthesized GxTX-594, a variant of the peptidyl tarantula toxin guangxitoxin-1E, conjugated to a fluorophore optimal for two-photon excitation imaging through light-scattering tissue. We term this tool EVAP (Endogenous Voltage-sensor Activity Probe). GxTX-594 targets the voltage sensors of Kv2 proteins, which form potassium channels and plasma membrane–endoplasmic reticulum junctions. GxTX-594 dynamically labels Kv2 proteins on cell surfaces in response to voltage stimulation. To interpret dynamic changes in fluorescence intensity, we developed a statistical thermodynamic model that relates the conformational changes of Kv2 voltage sensors to degree of labeling. We used two-photon excitation imaging of rat brain slices to image Kv2 proteins in neurons. We found puncta of GxTX-594 on hippocampal CA1 neurons that responded to voltage stimulation and retain a voltage response roughly similar to heterologously expressed Kv2.1 protein. Our findings show that EVAP imaging methods enable the identification of conformational changes of endogenous Kv2 voltage sensors in tissue.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Collisionality driven turbulent particle transport changes in DIII-D H-mode plasmas

The results of the experimental dimensionless scan in this paper confirm that there is an increase in density peaking towards lower collisionality and that this can be partly linked to a shift in the turbulence regime from ITG towards TEM. However at the lowest collisionality, the changes in turbulence and transport are much more pronounced than expected from direct collisionality effect on the turbulence. In this paper, the collisionality, ν * is varied by a factor 5, while keeping ρ * , q , β , M , fixed. Additionally, a 3 Hz gas puff modulation is applied to modulate the electron density profile and extract the perturbed transport coefficients using two diagnostics. The transport analysis shows that the increase in density peaking at low ν * is linked to an increase in the inward particle pinch and not an increase in core fueling. These observations are not only in agreement with prior modeling scans of how turbulence changes as a function of collisionality and its impact upon the particle fluxes, but also with the multi-machine database (Fable E. et al 2010 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 52 015007) (Angioni C. et al 2003 Phys. Rev. Lett. 90 205003). The changes in turbulence across the collisionality scan were captured at large scale by the BES and at smaller scale by the DBS. A comparison with gradient-driven GENE simulations showed similar trends at both scales. Moreover, the changes observed in overall transport are in agreement with gradient-driven TGLF particle flux simulations. This indicates that TGLF/GENE when given the gradients as input, are able to reproduce the experimentally observed turbulence changes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a model comparison

Increasing renewable energy use is an essential strategy for mitigating climate change. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of renewable energy to climatic conditions means that the energy system’s vulnerability to climate change can also become larger. In this research, we used two integrated assessment models and data from four climate models to analyse climate change impacts on primary energy use at a global and regional scale under a low-level (RCP2.6) and a medium-level (RCP6.0) climate change scenario. The impacts are analysed on the energy system focusing on four renewable sources (wind, solar, hydropower, and biomass). Globally, small climate impacts on renewable primary energy use are found in both models (5% for RCP2.6 and 6% for RCP6.0). These impacts lead to a decrease in the use of fossil sources for most regions, especially for North America and Europe under the RCP60 scenario. Overall, IMAGE and GCAM provide a similar signal impact response for most regions. E.g. in Asia (excluding China and India), climate change induces an increase in wind and hydropower use under the RCP6.0 scenarios; however, for India, a decrease in solar energy use can be expected under both scenarios and models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle: a review

Abstract Aided by progress in the theoretical understanding, new knowledge on tropical rainfall annual cycle changes under a global warming background has been advanced in the past decade. In this review, we focus on recent advances in understanding the changes of tropical rainfall annual cycle, including its four distinct features: amplitude, spatial pattern shift, phase and wet/dry season length changes. Here, amplitude refers to the local summer-winter rainfall contrast and phase refers to the timing of rainfall annual cycle. In a warming climate, the amplitude is enhanced, more evidently over ocean, while the phase is delayed, mainly over land. The former is explained by the wet-get-wetter mechanism and the latter is explained by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and increased convective barrier. The phase delay over land has already emerged in the past four decades. The spatial pattern shift under warming is marked by two features: equatorward shift of the ITCZ throughout the year and the land-to-ocean precipitation shift in the rainy season. The former is explained by the upped-ante mechanism and/or related to the enhanced equatorial warming in a warmer world. The latter may be caused by the opposite land and ocean surface temperature annual cycle changes in the tropics. Over tropical rainforest regions such as Amazon and Congo Basin, the dry season has lengthened in the recent decades, but the fundamental reason is still unclear. Despite the notable progress in the research of tropical rainfall annual cycle change, many gaps remain in understanding its mechanisms, quantifying and attributing its historical emergence, narrowing the inter-model uncertainty of its future projections, and evaluating its global impact, motivating future work guided by some directions proposed in this review.

Song, Fengfei (ORCID:0000000230041749)↗

Large change of interlayer vibrational coupling with stacking in Mo 1-x W x Te 2

Stacking variations in quasi-two-dimensional materials can have an important influence on material properties, such as changing the topology of the band structure. Unfortunately, the weakness of van der Waals (vdW) interactions makes it difficult to compute the stacking dependence of properties, and even in a material as simple as graphite the stacking energetics remain unclear. Mo 1 - x W x Te 2 is a material in which three differently stacked phases are conveniently accessible by temperature changes: 1 T ' , T d * , and the reported Weyl semimetal phase T d . Additionally, the transitions proceed via layer sliding, and the corresponding interlayer shear mode (ISM) is relevant not just for the stacking energetics but also for understanding the relationship between Weyl physics and structural changes. However, the interlayer interactions of Mo 1 - x W x Te 2 are not well understood, with wide variation in computed properties. We report inelastic neutron scattering of the ISM in a Mo 0.91 W 0.09 Te 2 crystal. The ISM energies are generally consistent with the linear chain model, as expected given the weak interlayer interaction, though there are some discrepancies from predicted intensities. However, the interlayer force constants K x in the T d * and 1 T ' phases are substantially weaker than that of T d at 75(3) and 83(3)%, respectively. Considering that the relative positioning of atoms in neighboring layers is approximately the same regardless of overall stacking, our results suggest that longer-range influences, such as stacking-induced electronic band-structure changes, may be responsible for the substantial change in the interlayer vibrational coupling and thus the C 55 elastic constant. These findings should elucidate the stacking energetics of Mo 1 - x W x Te 2 and other vdW layered materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Ecological acclimation: A framework to integrate fast and slow responses to climate change

Ecological responses to climate change occur across vastly different time-scales, from minutes for physiological plasticity to decades or centuries for community turnover and evolutionary adaptation. Accurately predicting the range of ecosystem trajectories will require models that incorporate both fast processes that may keep pace with climate change and slower ones likely to lag behind and generate disequilibrium dynamics. However, the knowledge necessary for this integration is currently fragmented across disciplines. We develop ‘ecological acclimation’ as a unifying framework to emphasize the similarity of dynamics driven by processes operating on dramatically different time-scales and levels of biological organization. The framework focuses on ecoclimate sensitivities, measured as the change in an ecological response variable per unit of climate change. Acclimation processes acting at different time-scales cause these sensitivities to shift in magnitude and even direction over time. We highlight shifting ecoclimate sensitivities in case studies from diverse ecosystems, including terrestrial plant communities, coral reefs and soil microbiomes. Models predicting future ecosystem states inevitably make assumptions about acclimation processes; these assumptions must be explicit for users to evaluate whether a model is appropriate for a given forecast horizon. Similarly, decision frameworks that clearly account for multiple acclimation processes and their distinct time-scales will help natural resource managers plan for ecological impacts of climate change from years to many decades into the future. We outline a synthetic research programme focused on the time-scales of ecological acclimation to reduce uncertainty in ecological forecasts.

climate adaptation↗

The transition from resistance to acceptance: Managing a marine invasive species in a changing world

Abstract Marine invasive species can transform coastal ecosystems, yet mitigating their effects can be difficult, and even impractical. Often, marine invasive species are managed at poorly matched spatial scales, and at the same time, rates of spread and establishment are increasing under climate change and can outpace resources available for population suppression. These circumstances challenge traditional conservation goals of maintaining a historic environmental state, especially for a species like the European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a formidable invader with few examples of successful long‐term removal programs. A management paradigm where decision alternatives include resisting or accepting a new ecological trajectory may be needed. We apply mathematical concepts from decision theory to develop a quantitative framework for navigating management decisions in this new resist‐accept paradigm. We develop a model of European green crab growth, removal and colonization, and we find optimal levels of removal effort that minimize both ecological change and removal cost. We establish a benchmark of colonization pressure at which green crab density becomes decoupled from a decision maker's actions, such that population control can no longer shape the invasion trajectory. For informing the decision boundary between resistance and acceptance, our results highlight that a decision maker's understanding of how removal cost scales with removal effort is more important than understanding the density‐impact relationship. We show that assuming stationary system dynamics can result in sub‐optimal levels of species removal effort, highlighting the importance of developing anticipatory management strategies by accounting for non‐stationary dynamics. Policy implications . For marine invasive species that can disperse across long distances and recolonize rapidly after removal, the focus of conservation policy should shift away from understanding how to resist change to understanding when to stop resisting change. Navigating this decision problem involves trade‐offs among competing objectives, highlighting the need for structured approaches to elicit objective weights that reflect the values of the decision maker. For natural resource managers facing possible ecosystem transformation, this decision framework can enable proactive and strategic decisions made under uncertainty in a changing world.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

Community‐Level Metabolic Shifts Following Land Use Change in the Amazon Rainforest Identified by a Supervised Machine Leaning Approach

ABSTRACT The Amazon rainforest has been subjected to high rates of deforestation, mostly for pasturelands, over the last few decades. This change in plant cover is known to alter the soil microbiome and the functions it mediates, but the genomic changes underlying this response are still unresolved. In this study, we used a combination of deep shotgun metagenomics complemented by a supervised machine learning approach to compare the metabolic strategies of tropical soil microbial communities in pristine forests and long‐term established pastures in the Amazon. Machine learning‐derived metagenome analysis indicated that microbial community structures (bacteria, archaea and viruses) and the composition of protein‐coding genes were distinct in each plant cover type environment. Forest and pasture soils had different genomic diversities for the above three taxonomic groups, characterised by their protein‐coding genes. These differences in metagenome profiles in soils under forests and pastures suggest that metabolic strategies related to carbohydrate and energy metabolisms were altered at community level. Changes were also consistent with known modifications to the C and N cycles caused by long‐term shifts in aboveground vegetation and were also associated with several soil physicochemical properties known to change with land use, such as the C/N ratio, soil temperature and exchangeable acidity. In addition, our analysis reveals that these alterations in land use can also result in changes to the composition and diversity of the soil DNA virome. Collectively, our study indicates that soil microbial communities shift their overall metabolic strategies, driven by genomic alterations observed in pristine forests and long‐term established pastures with implications for the C and N cycles.

carbon and nitrogen cycles↗