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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the shape of data: a probabilistic framework for analysing experiments in the natural sciences

A critical step in data analysis for many different types of experiments is the identification of features with theoretically defined shapes in N -dimensional datasets; examples of this process include finding peaks in multi-dimensional molecular spectra or emitters in fluorescence microscopy images. Identifying such features involves determining if the overall shape of the data is consistent with an expected shape; however, it is generally unclear how to quantitatively make this determination. In practice, many analysis methods employ subjective, heuristic approaches, which complicates the validation of any ensuing results—especially as the amount and dimensionality of the data increase. Here, we present a probabilistic solution to this problem by using Bayes’ rule to calculate the probability that the data have any one of several potential shapes. This probabilistic approach may be used to objectively compare how well different theories describe a dataset, identify changes between datasets and detect features within data using a corollary method called Bayesian Inference-based Template Search; several proof-of-principle examples are provided. Altogether, this mathematical framework serves as an automated ‘engine’ capable of computationally executing analysis decisions currently made by visual inspection across the sciences.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2016

γ-Ray spectroscopy using a binned likelihood approach

The measurement of a reaction cross section from a pulse height spectrum is a ubiquitous problem in experimental nuclear physics. In γ-ray spectroscopy, this is accomplished frequently by measuring the intensity of full-energy primary transition peaks and correcting the intensities for experimental artifacts, such as detection efficiencies and angular correlations. Implicit in this procedure is the assumption that full-energy peaks do not overlap with any secondary peaks, escape peaks, or environmental back- grounds. However, for complex γ-ray cascades, this is often not the case. Furthermore, this technique is difficult to adapt for coincidence spectroscopy, where intensities depend not only on the detection efficiency, but also the detailed decay scheme. We present a method that incorporates the intensities of the entire spectrum (e.g., primary and secondary transition peaks, escape peaks, Compton continua, etc.) into a statistical model, where the transition intensities and branching ratios can be determined using Bayesian statistical inference. This new method provides an elegant solution to the difficulties associated with analyzing coincidence spectra. Finally, we describe it in detail and examine its efficacy in the analysis of 18 O(p,γ) 19 F and 25 Mg(p,γ) 26 Al resonance data. For the 18 O(p,γ) 19 F reaction, the measured branching ratios improve upon the literature values, with a factor of 3 reduction in the uncertainties.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using statistical modeling to predict and understand fusion experiments

Over 300 cryogenic layered direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions have been successfully executed on the OMEGA Laser System in the last decade. However, extracting sufficient understanding from these experiments to develop new designs or to identify or mitigate degradation sources remains challenging. Recently, a statistical modeling approach was developed to successfully design and predict improved implosion experiments on OMEGA. Here, we show that one-dimensional simulations can be used to predict the outcomes of systematically perturbed three-dimensional simulations and that this statistical modeling approach can be used to identify or rule out physical mechanisms for some of the degradation sources observed on the OMEGA Laser System for direct-drive cryogenic inertial confinement fusion. In this instance, we investigate the fusion yield dependencies on the ion temperature asymmetries and laser beam size observed in experiments by comparing with trends in three-dimensional synthetic simulation databases. Using the statistical model on these systematically perturbed simulations, we find that the statistically inferred dependency on the measured ion temperature asymmetries is well explained by imposed ℓ =1 modes. However, we find that the dependency on the laser beam size is only dominated by the illumination non-uniformity for some extreme cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resilient information and inference networks under mixed-trust sensing

With ubiquitous digitization, sensing, and computational intelligence deployed in increasingly more and broader domains, including critical infrastructure, potentially misleading and destabilizing effects of multimodal anomalies and adversarial behavior are growing in importance. Here, we develop randomized and reinforcement learning-based strategies for strategically recruiting and utilizing deployed (and, thus, vulnerable and potentially faulty and/or compromised) nodes from information and inference networks, while defending against adversaries that attempt to misguide assessments of inferred variables. Recognizing that, besides communication and other costs, sampling from any observable node can either provide true data or dangerously expose our inference to misinformation (without being easily distinguishable what actually happens), the proposed strategies proceed by progressively recruiting nodes and cautiously scaling their information contribution based on assumed, or, in our reinforcement learning approach, intelligently weighed trustworthiness, with the learning approach also considering network-wide, threat-inclusive risk/value tradeoffs. While avoiding the hardware, communication, analytical and computational burden of explicit redundancy, the proposed defensive schemes enable on-the-fly assessments of underlying processes, and system-wide situational awareness with demonstrable resilience against adversarial activities.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive learning-driven high-throughput synthesis of oxygen reduction reaction Fe–N–C electrocatalysts

Reducing human reliance on inefficient energy systems and fossil fuels has become more urgent due to the consequences of global climate change. However, traditional trial-and-error approaches have hampered our ability to accelerate the discovery and implementation of functional materials for efficient energy conversion devices, such as polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFCs). To address this, we develop an adaptive learning framework that integrates machine learning and state-of-the-art capabilities in high-throughput synthesis to achieve expedited optimization of iron-nitrogen-carbon PEFC oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) electrocatalysts. We use statistical inference, uncertainty quantification, and global optimization to build a computational design-of-experiment tool that identifies the optimum compositions to be investigated next to reduce the demands placed on experimental materials discovery. We benchmark the ability of the proposed strategy to discover optimum catalyst synthesis conditions in a six-dimensional search space when starting with a thirty-six-sample database. By following the adaptive learning strategy, we synthesize fourteen new catalysts from approximately ten billion unique compositions and discover four catalysts that outperform all original samples. The best machine learning-optimized catalyst is 33% more active than the highest-performing one in the initial database, showing an ORR activity seven times larger than those typically reported for the same class of materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the performance of MagLIF with 3D MHD simulations

The Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) experimental platform at Sandia National Laboratories has realized a number of recent improvements in electrical current and laser preheat coupling but fusion yields are below expectations, based on modeling with clean (that is, simulations with no interfacial instabilities and no mix) two-dimensional (2D) magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) simulations, by a factor of 5 or more. However, magnetized liner implosions are known to produce helical magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor (MRT) modes and complex stagnation structures that cannot be directly modeled in 2D. This paper presents the results of 3D HYDRA MHD simulations, including helical MRT, showing that degradation from these instabilities can readily reproduce experimental yields, but it is difficult to simultaneously match the yield along with inferred fuel temperature, pressure, and burn history (assessed with x-rays), which are larger in the experiments considered here. Additional analysis methods and future experiments are proposed to help address the discrepancies. The 3D simulations also show, without substantive improvements to stability, changing the applied Bz or preheat is unlikely to increase performance of MagLIF to the same degree as clean 2D simulations. Finally, the first 3D HYDRA simulations with the Hall term show the ab initio production of helical MRT and produce a clear change in stagnation morphology compared to pre-seeded simulations without Hall. In spite of the differences, the simulations still produce comparable fusion performance but with longer, lower power, neutron yield history.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

This paper proposes an approach to select a maintenance strategy from a predefined set of choices considering the decision maker’s behavioral risk profile. It is assumed that the damage state is characterized by a continuous state parameter probabilistically inferred from observable sensor data. This work applies an engineering application of consequence-based decision-making incorporating the acceptable risk intensity of the decision-maker, i.e., the decision-maker’s (individual or an organization) valuation of the outcome of a decision, using a risk profile model. The utility of a decision-maker is subjective, and this paper considers the fact that different decision-makers mentally assign a different importance factor (the utility) to the seriousness or urgency to take necessary actions with the increasing intensity of structural damage. The approach herein incorporates a layer of human psychology on selecting appropriate maintenance strategies that not only depend on the posterior distribution of unmeasurable damage state but also consider the behavioral risk profile of the decision-maker. Further, the collective decision-making of an organization consisting of many individuals is also investigated. The approach is exemplified in a case study involving life cycle monitoring of a miter gate, part of a lock system enabling navigation of inland waterways.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving the stability and performance of MagLIF implosions by applying dielectric coatings and increasing applied B z , fuel preheat, and load current

We report two magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments that produced record thermonuclear D–D neutron yields of 2.11×10 13 and 2.33×10 13 . These yields are about a factor of two higher than previous MagLIF results. The experiments achieved ion temperatures of 3.0 and 3.3 keV and stagnation pressures of 1.6 and 1.3 Gbar. The inferred Lawson parameters were χ=0.2 and 0.1, which are the largest reported for MagLIF. The performance increase used a high-aspect-ratio beryllium liner with a dielectric coating and modest increases in preheat energy (∼2.2 kJ), peak current (18.5 MA), and axial magnetic field (15 T). Three-dimensional HYDRA simulations are consistent with the measured liner dynamics and fusion outputs. These results indicate a pathway to higher-yield MagLIF designs using coated, high-aspect-ratio liners and improved input parameters. Simulations further suggest that adding an ice fuel layer could increase yield by up to a factor of 2.5 by reducing liner convergence, instability feedthrough, and mix.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 2: Harnessing Uncertainties from Data Sets, Bayesian Design of Experiments in Chemical Kinetics**

When choosing experimental conditions, Bayesian statistical tools can predict the experimental choices which will yield the highest information gain. Experimental choices could be temperature, pressure, reaction time, number of measurements, reactor volume, etc.. Three example analyses are presented here, each using the software Chemical Kinetics Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (CheKiPEUQ). Information gain is a measure of reduction of uncertainty in a model's parameters. The three chemical system examples presented each illustrate Bayesian Design of Experiments using information gain. In the first chemical example, temperature selection impacts the information gain for the free energy of reaction in a two-component equilibrium reaction. In the second example, temperature and pressure are explored for a competitive adsorption Langmuir replacement reaction system. Finally, the third example is a catalytic membrane reactor which is a culmination of the previous examples. The catalytic membrane reactor has a complex and nonlinear response in the observables which is solved by numerical evaluation. In the three examples, the experimental conditions are treated as design variables for maximizing information gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating posterior quantity of interest expectations in a multilevel scalable framework

Scalable approaches for uncertainty quantification are necessary for characterizing prediction confidence in large-scale subsurface flow simulations with uncertain permeability. To this end we explore a multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating posterior moments of a particular quantity of interest, where we employ an element-agglomerated algebraic multigrid (AMG) technique to generate the hierarchy of coarse spaces with guaranteed approximation properties for both the generation of spatially correlated random fields and the forward simulation of Darcy's law to model subsurface flow. In both these components (sampling and forward solves), we exploit solvers that rely on state-of-the-art scalable AMG. To illustrate the applicability of this approach, numerical tests are performed on two 3D examples-a unit cube and an egg-shaped domain with an irregular boundary-where the scalability of each simulation as well as the scalability of the overall algorithm are demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sequential optimal positioning of mobile sensors using mutual information

Source localization, such as detecting a nuclear source in an urban area or ascertaining the origin of a chemical plume, is generally regarded as a well-documented inverse problem; however, optimally placing sensors to collect data for such problems is a more challenging task. In particular, optimal sensor placement—that is, measurement locations resulting in the least uncertainty in the estimated source parameters—depends on the location of the source, which is typically unknown a priori. Mobile sensors are advantageous because they have the flexibility to adapt to any given source position. While most mobile sensor strategies designate a trajectory for sensor movement, we instead employ mutual information, based on Shannon entropy, to choose the next measurement location from a discrete set of design conditions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Recommended nuclear data for medical radioisotope production: diagnostic positron emitters

An IAEA coordinated research project that began in 2012 and ended in 2016 was primarily dedicated to the compilation, evaluation and recommendation of cross-section data for the production of medical radionuclides. One significant part of this work focused on diagnostic positron emitters. These particular studies consist of 69 reactions for direct and indirect or generator production of 44 Sc( 44 Ti), 52 mMn( 52 Fe), 52 gMn, 55 Co, 61 Cu, 62 Cu( 62 Zn), 66 Ga, 68 Ga( 68 Ge), 72 As( 72 Se), 73 Se, 76 Br, 82 Rb( 82 Sr), 82 mRb, 86 Y, 89 Zr, 90 Nb, 94 mTc, 110 mIn( 110 Sn), 118 Sb( 118 Te), 120 I, 122 I( 122 Xe), 128 Cs( 128 Ba), and 140 Pr( 140 Nd) medical radionuclides. The resulting reference cross-section data were obtained from Padé fits to selected and corrected experimental data, and integral thick target yields were subsequently deduced. Uncertainties in the fitted results were estimated via a Padé least-squares method with the addition of a 4% assessed systematic uncertainty. Experimental data were also compared with theoretical predictions available from the TENDL-2015 and TENDL-2017 libraries.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States

To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. In conclusion, estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the impact of tidal generation and energy storage integration in PV-rich electric distribution systems

Deep decarbonization of power system operations requires the maximal utilization of available renewable resources. At distribution-level operations, however, grid operators can face numerous challenges in integrating renewables at scale owing to the inherent intermittence of renewable energy resources. These include phenomena such as voltage fluctuations, which are typically mitigated through control actuators such as on-load tap changers (OLTC) as well as energy storage devices, such as battery energy storage systems (BESS). On the one hand, high intermittence of the available renewable portfolio may require increasingly aggressive control of actuators, thereby accelerating the probability of equipment failure. On the other hand, integrating BESS operations and having a diverse renewable generation portfolio can typically help stagger power/energy flow to mitigate the aforementioned adverse impacts. In this paper, we employ a Bayesian framework for equipment lifetime estimation to understand the impact of including tidal energy resources and BESS in distribution system operations for feeders having substantial distribution photovoltaic generation. Our results indicate that while tidal energy alone may slightly decrease equipment reliability, the adverse impact on reliability is significantly magnified by a generation portfolio consisting of tidal generation and photovoltaic generation. Here, we also study the tidal and photovoltaic hosting capacity problem with and without energy storage systems using equipment reliability as an added constraint. We conclude that energy storage increases the reliability-constrained hosting capacity of the distribution system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Generation and application of multivariate polynomial quadrature rules

The search for multivariate quadrature rules of minimal size with a specified polynomial accuracy has been the topic of many years of research. Finding such a rule allows accurate integration of moments, which play a central role in many aspects of scientific computing with complex models. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, we provide novel mathematical analysis of the polynomial quadrature problem that provides a lower bound for the minimal possible number of nodes in a polynomial rule with specified accuracy. We give concrete but simplistic multivariate examples where a minimal quadrature rule can be designed that achieves this lower bound, along with situations that showcase when it is not possible to achieve this lower bound. Our second contribution is the formulation of an algorithm that is able to efficiently generate multivariate quadrature rules with positive weights on non-tensorial domains. Our tests show success of this procedure in up to 20 dimensions. We test our method on applications to dimension reduction and chemical kinetics problems, including comparisons against popular alternatives such as sparse grids, Monte Carlo and quasi Monte Carlo sequences, and Stroud rules. The quadrature rules computed in this paper outperform these alternatives in almost all scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗