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DOE OSTI2014

GEOCHEMICAL INVESTIGATIONS OF CO₂-BRINE-ROCK INTERACTIONS OF THE KNOX GROUP IN THE ILLINOIS BASIN

Increased output of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO₂), into the atmosphere from anthropogenic sources is of great concern. A potential technology to reduce CO₂ emissions is geologic carbon sequestration. This technology is currently being evaluated in the United States and throughout the world. The geology of the Illinois Basin exhibits outstanding potential as a carbon sequestration target, as demonstrated by the ongoing Illinois Basin – Decatur Project that is using the Mt. Simon Sandstone reservoir and Eau Claire Shale seal system to store and contain 1 million tonnes of CO₂. The Knox Group-Maquoketa Shale reservoir and seal system, located stratigraphically above the Mt. Simon Sandstone-Eau Claire Shale reservoir and seal system, has little economic value as a resource for fossil fuels or as a potable water source, making it ideal as a potential carbon sequestration target. In order for a reservoir-seal system to be effective, it must be able to contain the injected CO₂ without the potential for the release of harmful contaminants liberated by the reaction between CO₂-formation fluids and reservoir and seal rocks. This study examines portions of the Knox Group (Potosi Dolomite, Gunter Sandstone, New Richmond Sandstone) and St. Peter Sandstone, and Maquoketa Shale from various locations around the Illinois Basin. A total of 14 rock and fluid samples were exposed to simulated sequestration conditions (9101–9860 kPa [1320–1430 psi] and 32°–42°C [90°– 108°F]) for varying amounts of time (6 hours to 4 months). Knox Group reservoir rocks exhibited dissolution of dolomite in the presence of CO₂ as indicated by petrographic examination, X-ray diffraction analysis, and fluid chemistry analysis. These reactions equilibrated rapidly, and geochemical modeling confirmed that these reactions reached equilibrium within the time frames of the experiments. Pre-reaction sample mineralogy and postreaction fluid geochemistry from this study suggests only limited potential for the release of United States Environmental Protection Agency regulated inorganic contaminants into potable water sources. Short-term core flood experiments further verify that the carbonate reactions occurring in Knox Group reservoir samples reach equilibrium rapidly. The core flood experiments also lend insight to pressure changes that may occur during CO₂ injection. The Maquoketa Shale experiments reveal that this rock is initially chemically reactive when in contact with CO₂ and brine. However, due to the conservative nature of silicate and clay reaction kinetics and the rapid equilibration of carbonate reactions that occur in the shale, these reactions would not present a significant risk to the competency of the shale as an effective seal rock.

Yoksoulian, Lois↗

DOE OSTI2016

The ARM Climate Research Facility in the Amazon Basin. Final Report

The Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Experiment was carried out in the environs of Manaus, Brazil, in the central region of the Amazon basin during two years from 1 January 2014 through 31 December 2015. The experiment focused on the complex interactions among vegetation, atmospheric chemistry, and aerosol production on the one hand and their connections to aerosols, clouds, and precipitation on the other. The objective was to understand and quantify these linked processes, first under natural conditions to obtain a baseline and second when altered by the effects of human activities. To this end, the pollution plume from the Manaus metropolis, superimposed on the background conditions of the central Amazon basin, served as a natural laboratory. The present paper, as Introduction to the GoAmazon2014/5 Special Issue, presents the context and motivation of the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment. The nine research sites, including the characteristics and instrumentation of each site, are presented. The sites range from time point zero (T0) upwind of the pollution, to T1 in the midst of the pollution, to T2 just downwind of the pollution, to T3 furthest downwind of the pollution (70 km). In addition to the ground sites, a low-altitude G-159 Gulfstream I (G1) observed the atmospheric boundary layer and low clouds, and a high-altitude Gulfstream G550 (HALO) operated in the free troposphere. During the two-year experiment, two Intensive Operating Periods (IOP1 and IOP2) also took place that included additional specialized research instrumentation at the ground sites as well as flights of the two aircraft. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP1 was carried out from 1 February to 31 March 2014 in the wet season. GoAmazon2014/5 IOP2 was conducted from 15 August to 15 October 2014 in the dry season. The G1 aircraft flew during both IOP1 and IOP2, and the HALO aircraft flew during IOP2. In the context of the Amazon basin, the two IOPs also correspond to the clean and biomass burning seasons, respectively. The Manaus plume is present year round, and it is transported by prevailing northeasterly and easterly winds in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. This Introduction also organizes information relevant to many papers in the Special Issue. Information is provided on the vehicle fleet, power plants, and industrial activities of Manaus. The mesoscale and synoptic meteorology relevant to the two IOPs is presented. Regional and long-range transport of emissions for the two IOPs is discussed based on satellite observations across South America and Africa. Fire locations throughout the airshed are detailed. In conjunction with the context and motivation of GoAmazon2014/5, as presented herein in this Introduction, research articles published in this Special Issue are anticipated in the near future to describe the detailed results and findings of GoAmazon2014/5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Basin and Petroleum System Modeling of Gas Hydrate Deposits in the Walker Ridge Area, Northern Gulf of Mexico - Poster

Poster presented by NETL at ICGH, 06/17 - Abstract: We are currently constructing an Earth model of the Terrebonne Basin for comprehensive 3D modeling. Well data and a high-quality 3D seismic survey underpin the geologic conditions for the model. Additional model constraints include basal heat flow, seafloor temperature, and paleowater depth through time. Our initial investigation comprises the development of a “pseudo” 2D model centered on the deep WR313 #001 well. We are using this test case to establish the workflow for integrating BPSM with gas hydrate analyses; this will eventually be applied to the entire mini-basin. A key aspect of investigating the gas hydrate system with BPSM is integrating it with the other active petroleum system(s) in the region, because the methane in hydrate deposits can derive from both biogenic and thermogenic sources. Some of the questions we may consider are: What is the history of these deposits with respect to the gas hydrate stability zone, recognizing that this area is not one characterized by simple continuous sedimentation and subsidence, but instead by periodic uplift, tilting, plate rotation, sea-level change, salt tectonics, and evolution of temperature gradients. In conclusion, BPSM has been called the ‘great integrator’ in petroleum exploration. Development of a BPSM model of gas hydrates in the Terrebonne Basin of the northern GoM will provide a vehicle within which to integrate other early exploration and assessment research being conducted on gas hydrates, such as in frontier areas like Japan, as a potential resource likely to provide many decades of energy if proven to be commercially producible

Dafov, Laura↗

DOE OSTI2019

CarbonSAFE East Sub-Basin Site Feasibility Plan Subtask 4.5 – Topical Report: DOE-FE0029445-12

Regional industrial facilities were considered for potential commercial-scale [50 million metric tons (55 tons) or more] geological storage in a CO 2 source and storage network study for the CarbonSAFE Illinois East Sub-Basin region (DOE-FE0029445-9). The study area has a number of potential geologic sequestration targets, including three significant deep saline reservoirs with corresponding seals, and potential enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 -EOR) opportunities (Figure 1). Recent geological research has focused on a high porosity, arkosic zone within the Lower Mt. Simon Sandstone as a prospective storage resource play in the region. This report summarizes the regional geology of the East Sub-Basin and discusses considerations leading from pre-feasibility work into the Wabash CarbonSAFE feasibility project (DE-FE0031626), recently underway in conjunction with the Wabash Valley Resources (WVR) ammonia plant retrofit taking place at the former US DOE Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) plant located near Terre Haute, Indiana. As part of the feasibility study, geological and site characterization work will address data gaps and risks outlined in Table 1 and will aid continued steps toward commercial-scale CCS at the WVR site. The feasibility plan discussed here draws upon regional assessment work in the East Sub-Basin as it pertains to risk and data needs to characterize the WVR site, highlights plans for data acquisition to support characterization efforts, and offers insight into the legal and permitting landscape surrounding CCS in the state of Indiana.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2017

Phase 2: Updated Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico

Play fairway analysis (PFA) methodologies, both deterministic and stochastic, are being applied for medium to low enthalpy geothermal resources in the Tularosa Basin, in south-central New Mexico. These PFA methods use datasets representative of heat, groundwater and fault-fracture related permeability to locate areas with the lowest risk of geothermal energy development. Our Phase 1 PFAs predicted several plays throughout the study area, with a range of certainty and risk, based upon legacy data. In Phase 2, new data were collected for high priority plays and integrated into the PFAs to enhance certainty and further reduce risk. Field geology, gravity surveys and alluvial fan geomorphology supplemented the understanding of geologic structure and potential permeability, while additional well sampling, geothermometry and temperature logging provided valuable information about heat in the subsurface. In order to statistically compare and contrast the layers of evidence in the Tularosa Basin with the broader Great Basin, a probabilistic Weights of Evidence analysis was conducted in parallel with the inclusive and deterministic petroleum industry logic PFA. Both methods yielded 3 similar plays, while Weights of Evidence identified 2 additional plays. A sixth play was inferred around the NASA-Aerospace Data Facility Southwest site, north-east of Las Cruces, based on a promising shallow temperature survey, geothermometers, and structural interpretations of geophysical data. Here, the White Sands Missile Range main cantonment (headquarters) play is now given high priority, along with McGregor Range, Fort Bliss, due to the discovery of relatively high geothermometer values.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Critical Minerals from Waste Streams in the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana, USA

Background/Objectives. Critical minerals (CM) are essential for numerous industrial and defense applications, including green technologies that will help to meet carbon emission reduction goals. Many CM are currently mined and processed in countries that lack stringent environmental and labor regulations. Unconventional sources such as existing industrial waste streams could play a part in building an ethical CM supply chain. Additionally, waste streams created in the extraction and processing of CM could be used for other industrial or commercial purposes, thereby reducing waste and advancing a circular economy. Approach/Activities. The Department of Energy funded Powder River Basin (PRB) CORE-CM project is exploring all aspects of the carbon ore, rare earth element (REE), and CM value chain, including the potential for extraction of CM from industrial waste streams in the basin. Waste streams that have potential as CM feedstocks are being inventoried to assess the concentration of CM in each waste stream and to estimate volume and accessibility. Although basin-specific technologies for extraction of CM are still in development, waste streams that may be produced during these processes are being cataloged and mapped to potential secondary uses. Results/Lessons Learned. Initial studies of the CM potential of PRB coal ash show that this waste stream contains concentrations of greater than 300 ppm total REE (Bagdonas et al., 2022, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews). Moreover, calcium-rich PRB coal ash is amenable to REE extraction (Taggart et al., 2016, Environmental Science and Technology). Wyoming coal is shipped to 28 states, meaning that coal ash produced at power stations across the US represents a potential widespread resource for the extraction of REE. In addition to coal mining and coal fired electricity generation, the PRB is home to other energy industries including oil and gas production, in-situ uranium mining, and bentonite mining. Historically, precious and base metal mining has taken place on the perimeter of the PRB. Waste streams from these industries are currently being evaluated for their CM potential. Assessing the CM resource potential of waste streams could contribute to the development of an ethical CM supply chain. Results from these studies can be replicated for other waste streams, increasing the likelihood of successful creation of circular economies.

Phillips, Erin↗

DOE OSTI2024

SUBTASK 1.6 – BASIN ELECTRIC CARBON STORAGE RESEARCH PROJECT: NOVEL MONITORING TECHNIQUES

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted baseline activities associated with an applied research project at Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s (Basin’s) carbon capture and storage (CCS) site in Beulah, North Dakota, to establish novel carbon storage-monitoring techniques as commercial methods under Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233, Subtask 1.6. The following report summarizes the baseline activities performed and briefly describes the subsequent (operational monitoring) activities that have been proposed to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the overall project to develop and demonstrate novel monitoring techniques at North America’s largest permitted CCS operation. Dakota Gasification Company (DGC), a wholly owned subsidiary of Basin, owns and operates the Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) approximately 5 miles northwest of the town of Beulah, North Dakota (Figure 1). In 2023, DGC received approval from the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) to develop a storage facility on-site for injecting a stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) captured from GPSP. DGC will transport the captured CO2 stream with approximately 6.8 miles of transmission lines that extend north of GPSP and inject >1 million tonnes (MMt) of CO2 annually (>1 MMt/yr) over a 12-year period with up to six underground injection control (UIC) Class VI-compliant injection wells completed in the Broom Creek Formation, a predominantly sandstone reservoir and saline aquifer underlying GPSP. The Broom Creek Formation lies approximately 5900 feet (ft) below ground surface (bgs) at GPSP. The commercial scale (i.e., >1 MMt/yr) of DGC’s permitted carbon storage project is ideal for developing and testing the novel monitoring techniques included within Subtask 1.6. The goals of this project are to demonstrate 1) the cost-effectiveness of novel monitoring technologies included as part of this research, 2) technology capability for tracking the CO2 plume and/or associated pressure response in the subsurface and monitoring out-of-zone migration, and 3) compliance with UIC Class VI program requirements. The research activities proposed for the overall project include 1) design of an automated, integrated, modular (AIM) monitoring station; 2) time-lapse electromagnetic (EM) field surveys; 3) drone-based surveillance studies; 4) time-lapse monitoring with seismic methods; 5) advanced wellbore-monitoring methods; 6) deployment of an AIM monitoring network; 7) EM monitoring of CO2 with real-time data processing; 8) continued seasonal drone-based surveillance studies; 9) seismic monitoring with passive and active surveys; and 10) wellbore monitoring with nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) for near-surface characterization. Completion of Activities 1.0–5.0 (baseline activities) are described in this report. Upon authorization of funding by DOE, the EERC will initiate Activities 6.0– 10.0 (operational monitoring activities). Current state-of-the-art (SOA) carbon storage-monitoring techniques require countless labor hours dedicated to the acquisition of data. Once data are gathered, these SOA techniques often rely on commercial facilities to process raw data from the field. However, it is anticipated that next-generation monitoring techniques, such as those being demonstrated, will lower acquisition footprints, be less operationally intensive, and improve data acquisition efficiencies. These new techniques are more conducive to the application of machine learning, artificial intelligence, and automation, thus providing a pathway for integration into active control systems, informing site operability, and improving the integration of data for future CCS projects across the United States. Additionally, reclaimed and active mining lands are present within the project site, creating a unique opportunity to demonstrate the effectiveness of remote sensing and surface-based geophysics monitoring techniques at similar project sites that may include disturbed, unconsolidated, or actively excavated near-surface environments. The efforts included in the overall project will produce necessary designs, learnings, and data acquired during the baseline and operational monitoring periods that are necessary for time-lapse demonstration and validation of the described monitoring techniques. In addition, it is anticipated that the monitoring technologies included in this study will be compliant with UIC Class VI requirements to enable the potential for implementation at other CCS sites across the United States.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Compiled Groundwater Chemistry Data and Identified Mineralogy for the Portland Basin CRBG Aquifer System as part of DDU Feasibility Study

Groundwater Chemistry data for the Portland Basin was compiled from published literature, as well as state and federal groundwater quality reports. Mineralogies were identified based on previous literature, as well as XRD and SEM analysis conducted at Portland State University. Uploaded data sets include the compiled data on Portland and Tualatin Basin hydrogeology, and corresponding hydrogeochemical analyses.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Data and Scripts Associated with the Manuscript “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids”

This data package is associated with the publication “Water Column Respiration in the Yakima River Basin is Explained by Temperature, Nutrients and Suspended Solids” published in EGU Biogeochemistry (Laan et al. 2025). In this research, water column respiration (ERwc) data, surface water chemistry data, organic matter (OM) chemistry data, and publicly available geospatial data were used in analysis to evaluate the variability in ERwc at 47 sites across the Yakima River basin in Washington, USA. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package includes the data inputs, and outputs, and R scripts to reproduce all the analyses performed in the manuscript and create manuscript figures. The data package is comprised of three main folders (Code, Data, and Figures). The Code folder is comprised of four scripts and three analysis-specific subfolders that contain the R scripts to perform the analyses described in the publication and create publication figures. The Data folder is comprised of two “.csv” files and four subfolders that contain data input and output files. The Published_Data folder contains a readme that directs the user to download the appropriate files and add to this folder when using scripts. The Figures folder includes figures from the manuscript in “.pdf” and “.png” formats and a folder with intermediate figure files. This data package is associated with a GitHub repository which can be found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-RC2-SPS-ERwc. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected some of these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prospective Seal Name Catalog for U.S. Sedimentary Basins V1.0

The Prospective Seal Name Catalog for U.S. Sedimentary Basins V1.0 is an aggregation of prospective seal units for prospective storage resources within the USA for geologic carbon storage in both onshore and offshore basins. The catalog is intended to guide users to available literature and data resources. Prospective seal names are displayed with respect to the associated prospective storage resource target, for which the specified prospective seal may act as a confining layer for CO2 storage. A prospective seal unit’s lithology, position with respect to the reservoir (Primary, Secondary, Intraformational, etc.), and age (Geologic Period) are included when stated in the original literature or data resource. The information source for each record in the catalog includes the published citation, year of publication, resource type (Journal Article, Event Proceedings, etc.) and additional record notes.

Basin↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Influence of Land Use and Land Cover Change on Landslide Susceptibility in the Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia experiences frequent rainfall-triggered landslides especially during the monsoon season. In this study, the influence of land use and land cover change and other causative factors on landslide susceptibility is evaluated in the Lower Mekong Basin. Frequency ratio analysis is performed to quantify the relationship between LULC change and susceptibility. Detailed landslide inventory maps are used for analysis with yearly LULC maps. The LULC change is used as a contributing variable in a logistic regression-based susceptibility model with other variables including distance to roads, slope, aspect, forest loss, and soil properties. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Area Under the Curve are estimated for the model trained by each landslide inventory. The models show good performance, with AUC values ranging from 0.697 to 0.958 and an average AUC equal to 0.820. Both the Frequency Ratio analysis and the Logistic Regression models indicate LULC change from agricultural land to forest has a positive correlation with landslide occurrence. The most significant factors in the models are found to be distance to roads, slope, and aspect. A better understanding of the effects of LULC on landslide susceptibility can be useful for local land and disaster management and for the implementation of LULC as a factor in future susceptibility models. Using datasets that are unique to the Lower Mekong region, this study provides additional insights into the relationship between causative factors and landslide activity to better inform regional and global landslide susceptibility modeling.

River Basin↗

DOE OSTI2015

Regional and Local Geothermal Potential Evaluation: Examples from the Great Basin, USA, Iceland and East Africa

In both tectonically and magmatically mediated geothermal systems, geologic structures play a crucial role in focusing geothermal fluid circulation in the upper crust. In a variety of geothermal provinces worldwide, normal and strike-slip faults, caldera related faults, as well as fractures and fissures related to dikes and other magmatic intrusions generate the fracture permeability utilized for geothermal circulation. Localities where the above structures intersect and interact are characterized by the most robust generation and maintenance of fracture permeability, and therefore are the most favorable conduits for geothermal circulation. We present an evaluation of the structural geometries that tend to generate high density faulting and fracturing and an evaluation of the orientations of those structures with respect to the ambient stress conditions in three regions of high geothermal potential; The Great Basin, USA, Iceland, and east Africa. These analyses provide first-order constraints on areas that have favorable conditions for permeability and where future exploration for geothermal resources could be focused. In the Great Basin, USA, fault step-overs, fault terminations and accommodation zones are among the most common structural settings of known geothermal activity. Analysis of the geometry of these structures with respect to the ambient stress conditions reveals locations where faults associated with these structures are favorably oriented for enhanced fracture permeability. In magmatically active extensional provinces, like Iceland and east Africa, heat associated with shallow magmatic intrusions beneath volcanic centers drives geothermal circulation in near-surface fracture permeability conduits. Accentuated fault and fracture density and fracture permeability is generated by both axially oriented faults and fractures associated with axial rift zones and radially oriented structures near volcanic centers. Although heat from magmatic intrusion is most robust at volcanic centers, a high density of young intrusions may actually result in decreased permeability through closing of fracture networks. The locations of these three types of features; axial faults and fractures, radial structures, and young magmatic intrusions, all play a critical role in determining the most favorable locations for fracture permeability and fluid flow in magmatic geothermal systems. Within and around the margins of volcanic centers, where radial structures associated with volcanic centers interact and intersect with axially oriented structures associated with axial extension are the most favorable locations for fracture permeability and geothermal fluid circulation in magmatic extensional geothermal systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Linking basin-scale and pore-scale gas hydrate distribution patterns in diffusion-dominated marine hydrate systems: DIFFUSION-DRIVEN HYDRATE GROWTH IN SANDS

The goal of this study is to computationally determine the potential distribution patterns of diffusion-driven methane hydrate accumulations in coarse-grained marine sediments. Diffusion of dissolved methane in marine gas hydrate systems has been proposed as a potential transport mechanism through which large concentrations of hydrate can preferentially accumulate in coarse-grained sediments over geologic time. Using one-dimensional compositional reservoir simulations, we examine hydrate distribution patterns at the scale of individual sand layers (1 to 20 m thick) that are deposited between microbially active fine-grained material buried through the gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ). We then extrapolate to two- dimensional and basin-scale three-dimensional simulations, where we model dipping sands and multilayered systems. We find that properties of a sand layer including pore size distribution, layer thickness, dip, and proximity to other layers in multilayered systems all exert control on diffusive methane fluxes toward and within a sand, which in turn impact the distribution of hydrate throughout a sand unit. In all of these simulations, we incorporate data on physical properties and sand layer geometries from the Terrebonne Basin gas hydrate system in the Gulf of Mexico. We demonstrate that diffusion can generate high hydrate saturations (upward of 90%) at the edges of thin sands at shallow depths within the GHSZ, but that it is ineffective at producing high hydrate saturations throughout thick (greater than 10 m) sands buried deep within the GHSZ. As a result, we find that hydrate in fine-grained material can preserve high hydrate saturations in nearby thin sands with burial.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning and deep learning for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation in geological carbon Storage: A case study in the Illinois Basin

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising approach to simultaneously maintaining energy security and reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions under the current energy portfolio that is dominated by fossil fuel energy. Pre-injection formation characterization and post-injection CO 2 monitoring are two critical tasks to guarantee storage efficiency in CCS. The CCS projects in the Illinois Basin, the first large-scale CO 2 injection into saline aquifers in the United States, employed conventional and the latest pulsed neutron logging (PNL) tools for mineralogy interpretation and CO 2 saturation estimation, which provide valuable references for future CCS projects. Because of the inherent fuzziness of petrophysical measurements and complex subsurface heterogeneity, interpreting well-logging data is time-consuming, and its accuracy can be user-biased. In recent years, data-driven methods have been widely used to capture the non-linear patterns between input features and interpretation results. This work applied and evaluated four commonly used machine learning (ML) models, including ridge regression (RR), random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression (GBR), support vector regression (SVR), and one deep learning (DL) model, the artificial neural network (ANN). We optimized the hyperparameters of the four ML models and the DL model using the simulated annealing algorithm and the grid search strategy, respectively. The input features of the mineralogy interpretation models were eleven conventional well-logging parameters, and the label data (i.e., ground truth) were the porosity and volumetric fractions of six minerals, including quartz, feldspar, dolomite, calcite, clay, and iron minerals. The results demonstrated that the GBR and RF models were superior in predicting volumetric fractions of minerals and porosity; label data with low coefficient of variation (CV) values tended to yield better performance. For CO 2 saturation estimation, the RF was the best-performing model, followed by SVR, ANN, GBR, and RR. Furthermore, we conducted feature importance ranking using the permutation importance algorithm and found that the formation sigma and well pressure were the most important features in this study. In conclusion, the study of CCS projects in the Illinois Basin bridges the gap between the limited knowledge and understanding of geological carbon storage and the increasing demand for reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable energy solutions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of options for the development of a stacked storage complex in the Northern Michigan Basin, USA

The Northern Michigan Basin (NMB) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Integrated Pre-Feasibility Project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) CarbonSAFE initiative. Our objective of the NMB CarbonSAFE pre-feasibility project was to assess the feasibility of an integrated, commercial-scale carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage complex in the NMB, which includes one or more deep saline geologic formations with sufficient capacity to permanently store at least 50 million metric tons of CO 2 over a 20- to 30-year period. Subsurface injection of CO 2 into depleted oil reservoirs for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) was also evaluated in the pre-feasibility study as an additional geologic storage mechanism because there are hundreds of depleted pinnacle reef reservoirs in the NMB, along with an established CO 2 -EOR operation, a feature that distinguishes this area from most other locations in the United States. Additionally, these reefs are co-located with the most favorable saline formations in the basin – the St. Peter sandstone and the Bass Islands dolomite – making stacked storage a real possibility. The study demonstrates that there are multiple locations in the northern Michigan study area that could support a commercial-scale storage complex with either saline storage or associated storage via CO 2 -EOR in the depleted pinnacle reefs alone (i.e., each storage mechanism has sufficient capacity alone) or via a combination of the two storage mechanisms. The term stacked storage refers to the concept of using both mechanisms together, in the same area, to achieve the required storage capacity. Key sites were identified in the northern part of the southern Michigan Peninsula that had sufficient geologic storage, nearby CO 2 sources, a favorable social and economic setting, and a strong developed team.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diatom influence on the production characteristics of hydrate-bearing sediments: Examples from Ulleung Basin, offshore South Korea

The Ulleung Basin Gas Hydrate field expeditions in 2007 (UBGH1) and 2010 (UBGH2) sought to assess the Basin's gas hydrate resource potential. Coring operations in both expeditions recovered evidence of gas hydrate, primarily as fracture-filling (or vein type) morphologies in mainly silt-sized, fine-grained sediment, but also as pore-occupying hydrate in the coarser-grained layers of interbedded sand and fine-grained systems. A commonality across many of these occurrences is the presence of diatoms in the fine-grained sediment. Here we tested fine-grained sediment (median grain size <12.5 μm) associated with hydrate occurrences at four UBGH2 sites (UBGH2-2-2, UBGH2-3, UBGH2-6 and UBGH2-11) to investigate potential impacts of diatoms on efforts to extract methane from hydrate, or to tap hydrocarbon reservoirs beneath hydrate-bearing sediment. Two key considerations are: the extent to which diatoms control sediment mechanical properties, and the extent to which pore-water freshening, which occurs as gas hydrate breaks down during resource extraction, alters the diatom control on sediment mechanical properties. We conducted experiments to measure sediment index properties, sedimentation behavior and compressibility to address these considerations. We relied on scanning electron microscope (SEM) imagery and X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) to characterize the sediment mineralogy. Our high-level findings are that at the ~20–45% (by volume) diatom concentrations observed at these UBGH2 sites, sediment compressibility increases with diatom content, but diatoms only appear to increase porosity and permeability at the highest diatom concentration (~45%). Our measurements suggest in situ compression indices of 0.35–0.55 and permeabilities on the order of 0.01milliDarcies (1 × 10 -17 m 2 ) can be anticipated at these sites. Importantly, these properties are not expected to vary significantly upon pore water freshening that accompanies gas hydrate dissociation during production.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How do Hydrological Variability and Human Activities Control the Spatiotemporal Changes of Riverine Nitrogen Export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001−2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N export changes in the region between 2001−2005 and 2016−2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001−2005 to 2016−2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N loading throughout the basin. Furthermore, this framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Can we rely on drought–ending “miracles” in the Colorado River Basin?

Unexpected and large spring precipitation events in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) that significantly alleviated an otherwise severe water shortage have been observed for over a century, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015. Although these events are often termed as “drought-busting” or “miracle events” by water managers and the media, they have not been extensively researched or characterized. In this collaborative study with water managers across the CRB, we propose a definition for these hard-to-predict, ultra-high precipitation events occurring during the late-snow or snowmelt season. This characterization provides a framework for quantifying the frequency and intensity of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. Despite limitations of climate model simulations due to uncertainties and the inhomogeneous qualities, our findings suggest that such transitions may become less frequent and less intense in a warming climate. Finally, in view of the potentially wetter but less-snowy climate in the basin, the need for future research to more quantitatively assess these “miracle events” is emphasized.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗