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At least 613 records · Page 34

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗

The 2019-2020 Australian drought and bushfires altered the partitioning of hydrological fluxes

Though coarse in spatial resolution, the nearly all weather measurements from passive microwave sensors can help in improving the spatiotemporal coverage of optical and thermal infrared sensors for monitoring vegetation changes on the land surface. This study demonstrates the use of vegetation optical depth retrievals from the Soil Moisture Active Passive mission for capturing the vegetation alterations from the recent 2019-2020 Australian bushfires and drought. The impact of vegetation disturbance s on terrestrial water budget is examined by assimilating the vegetation optical depth retrievals into a dynamic phenology model. The results demonstrate that assimilating vegetation optical depth observations lead to improved simulation of evapotranspiration, runoff, and soil moisture states. The study also demonstrates that the vegetation changes from the 2019-2020 Australian drought and fires led to significant modifications in the partitioning of evaporative and runoff fluxes, resulting in increased bare soil evaporation, reduced transpiration, and higher runoff.

data assimilation↗

A Detailed Analysis of the Gl 486 Planetary System

Context . The Gl 486 system consists of a very nearby, relatively bright, weakly active M3.5V star at just 8 pc with a warm transiting rocky planet of about 1.3 R ⨁ and 3.0 M ⨁ . It is ideal for both transmission and emission spectroscopy and for testing interior models of telluric planets. Aims . To prepare for future studies, we aim to thoroughly characterise the planetary system with new accurate and precise data collected with state-of-the-art photometers from space and spectrometers and interferometers from the ground. Methods . We collected light curves of seven new transits observed with the CHEOPS space mission and new radial velocities obtained with MAROON-X at the 8.1m Gemini North telescope and CARMENES at the 3.5m Calar Alto telescope, together with previously published spectroscopic and photometric data from the two spectrographs and TESS. We also performed near-infrared interferometric observations with the CHARA Array and new photometric monitoring with a suite of smaller telescopes (AstroLAB, LCOGT, OSN, TJO). This extraordinary and rich data set was the input for our comprehensive analysis. Results . From interferometry, we measure a limb-darkened disc angular size of the star Gl 486 at θ LDD = 0.390 ± 0.018 mas. Together with a corrected Gaia EDR3 parallax, we obtain a stellar radius R * = 0.339 ± 0.015 R ⨀ . We also measure a stellar rotation period at P rot = 49.9 ± 5.5 days, an upper limit to its XUV (5–920 Å) flux informed by new Hubble/STIS data, and, for the first time, a variety of element abundances (Fe, Mg, Si, V, Sr, Zr, Rb) and C/O ratio. Moreover, we imposed restrictive constraints on the presence of additional components, either stellar or sub-stellar, in the system. With the input stellar parameters and the radial-velocity and transit data, we determine the radius and mass of the planet Gl 486 b at R p = 1.343 +0.063 -0.062 R ⨀ and M p = 3.00 +0.13 -0.13 M ⨁ , with relative uncertainties of the planet radius and mass of 4.7% and 4.2%, respectively. From the planet parameters and the stellar element abundances, we infer the most probable models of planet internal structure and composition, which are consistent with a relatively small metallic core with respect to the Earth, a deep silicate mantle, and a thin volatile upper layer. With all these ingredients, we outline prospects for Gl 486 b atmospheric studies, especially with forthcoming James Webb Space Telescope (Webb) observations.

Planetary systems↗

Multiwavelength Study of Quiescent States of Mrk 421 with Unprecedented Hard X-Ray Coverage Provided by NuSTAR in 2013

We present coordinated multiwavelength observations of the bright, nearby BL Lacertae object Markarian 421 (Mrk 421) taken in 2013 January-March, involving GASP-WEBT, Swift, NuSTAR, Fermi-LAT, MAGIC, VERITAS, and other collaborations and instruments, providing data from radio to very high energy„ (VHE) gamma-ray bands. NuSTAR yielded previously unattainable sensitivity in the 3-79 kiloelectronvolt range, revealing that the spectrum softens when the source is dimmer until the X-ray spectral shape saturates into a steep Gamma approximating 3 power law, with no evidence for an exponential cutoff or additional hard components up to 80 kiloelectronvolts. For the first time, we observed both the synchrotron and the inverse-Compton peaks of the spectral energy distribution (SED) simultaneously shifted to frequencies below the typical quiescent state by an order of magnitude. The fractional variability as a function of photon energy shows a double-bump structure that relates to the two bumps of the broadband SED. In each bump, the variability increases with energy, which, in the framework of the synchrotron self-Compton model, implies that the electrons with higher energies are more variable. The measured multi band variability, the significant X-ray-to-VHE correlation down to some of the lowest fluxes ever observed in both bands, the lack of correlation between optical/UV and X-ray flux, the low degree of polarization and its significant (random) variations, the short estimated electron cooling time, and the significantly longer variability timescale observed in the NuSTAR light curves point toward in situ electron acceleration and suggest that there are multiple compact regions contributing to the broadband emission of Mrk 421 during low-activity states.

BL Lacertae objects: individual (markarian 421) - ↗

Design of potent substrate-analogue inhibitors of canine renin

Through a systematic study of structure-activity relationships, we designed potent renin inhibitors for use in dog models. In assays against dog plasma renin at neutral pH, we found that, as in previous studies of rat renin inhibitors, the structure at the P2 position appears to be important for potency. The substitution of Val for His at this position increases potency by one order of magnitude. At the P3 position, potency appears to depend on a hydrophobic side chain that does not necessarily have to be aromatic. Our results also support the approach of optimizing potency in a renin inhibitor by introducing a moiety that promotes aqueous solubility (an amino group) at the C-terminus of the substrate analogue. In the design of potent dog plasma renin inhibitors, the influence of the transition-state residue 4(S)-amino-3(S)-hydroxy-5-cyclohexylpentanoic acid (ACHPA)-commonly used as a substitute for the scissile-bond dipeptide to boost potency-is not obvious, and appears to be sequence dependent. The canine renin inhibitor Ac-paF-Pro-Phe-Val-statine-Leu-Phe-paF-NH2 (compound 15; IC50 of 1.7 nM against dog plasma renin at pH 7.4; statine, 4(S)-amino-3(S)-hydroxy-6-methylheptanoic acid; paF, para-aminophenylalanine) had a potent hypotensive effect when infused intravenously into conscious, sodium-depleted, normotensive dogs. Also, compound 15 concurrently inhibited plasma renin activity and had a profound diuretic effect.

Non-NASA Center↗

On the kinetics of the pack - Aluminization process

An investigation has been made of the aluminization of unalloyed Ni in fluoride-activated packs of varying Al activity. In packs of low Al activity, in which the ratio of Al to Ni was less than 50 at. pct, the specimen surface quickly came to equilibrium with the pack and remained close to equilibrium for the duration of normal coating runs. In these packs the kinetics of aluminization was controlled by diffusion in the solid. In packs of higher Al activity the surface of the specimen did not come to equilibrium with the pack and the kinetics of the process was governed by a combination of solid and gas diffusion rates. Under most conditions however, the surface composition was time-invariant and a steady-state appeared to exist at the pack-coating interface. By combining Levine and Caves' model for gaseous diffusion in pure-Al packs with calculations of solid diffusion rates some success has been achieved in explaining the results.

Sivakumar, R.↗

Experiments on the dynamic behavior of cavitating pumps

This paper describes experiments performed to measure the dynamic transfer matrices for cavitating (and noncavitating) pumps. These transfer matrices describe the relationship between small linear oscillatory perturbations in the pressures and mass flow rates at inlet and discharge from the hydraulic machine. The matrices were deduced from direct measurements of these fluctuating quantities for different modes of excitation of the machine. Results for a cavitating inducer are presented as functions of frequency and mean operating state. Though some of the trends in the data are consistent with existing theoretical models of inducer dynamics, others are not, indicating a need for further theoretical investigation of the dynamic characteristics of such flows. The results exhibit increasingly complex dynamics with increasing cavitation; it appears that the hydraulic machine deviates from an essentially passive response without cavitation to an increasingly active response as the cavitation number is reduced.

Ng, S. L.↗

Costs and benefits of lunar oxygen: Engineering, operations, and economics

Oxygen is the most commonly discussed lunar resource. It will certainly not be the easiest to retrieve, but oxygen's fundamental place in propulsion and life support guarantees it continued attention as a prime candidate for early in situ resource utilization (ISRU). The findings are reviewed of recent investigation, sponsored by NASA-Ames, into the kinds of technologies, equipment, and scenarios (the engineering and operations costs) that will be required even to initiate lunar oxygen production. The infrastructure necessary to surround and support a viable oxygen-processing operation is explained. Selected details are used to illustrate the depth of technology challenges, extent of operations burdens, and complexity of decision linkages. Basic assumptions, and resulting timelines and mass manifests, are listed. These findings are combined with state-of-the-art knowledge of lunar and Mars propulsion options in simple economic input/output and internal-rate-of-return models, to compare production costs with performance benefits. Implications for three realistic scales of exploration architecture - expeditionary, aggressive science, and industrialization/settlement - are discussed. Conclusions are reached regarding the contextual conditions within which production of lunar oxygen (LLOX) is a reasonable activity. LLOX appears less useful for Mars missions than previously hoped. Its economical use in low Earth orbit hinges on production of lunar hydrogen as well. LLOX shows promise for lunar ascent/descent use, but that depends strongly on the plant mass required.

Sherwood, Brent↗

Gas-Phase Reaction Pathways and Rate Coefficients for the Dichlorosilane-Hydrogen and Trichlorosilane-Hydrogen Systems

As part of NASA Ames Research Center's Integrated Process Team on Device/Process Modeling and Nanotechnology our goal is to create/contribute to a gas-phase chemical database for use in modeling microelectronics devices. In particular, we use ab initio methods to determine chemical reaction pathways and to evaluate reaction rate coefficients. Our initial studies concern reactions involved in the dichlorosilane-hydrogen (SiCl2H2--H2) and trichlorosilane-hydrogen (SiCl2H-H2) systems. Reactant, saddle point (transition state), and product geometries and their vibrational harmonic frequencies are determined using the complete-active-space self-consistent-field (CASSCF) electronic structure method with the correlation consistent polarized valence double-zeta basis set (cc-pVDZ). Reaction pathways are constructed by following the imaginary frequency mode of the saddle point to both the reactant and product. Accurate energetics are determined using the singles and doubles coupled-cluster method that includes a perturbational estimate of the effects of connected triple excitations (CCSD(T)) extrapolated to the complete basis set limit. Using the data from the electronic structure calculations, reaction rate coefficients are obtained using conventional and variational transition state and RRKM theories.

Dateo, Christopher E.↗

Cascade Storage and Delivery System for a Multi Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV)

NASA is developing a Multi Mission Space Exploration Vehicle (MMSEV) for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The MMSEV is a pressurized vehicle used to extend the human exploration envelope for Lunar, Near Earth Object (NEO), and Deep Space missions. The Johnson Space Center is developing the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) for the MMSEV. The MMSEV s intended use is to support longer sortie lengths with multiple Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs) on a higher magnitude than any previous vehicle. This paper presents an analysis of a high pressure oxygen cascade storage and delivery system that will accommodate the crew during long duration Intra Vehicular Activity (IVA) and capable of multiple high pressure oxygen fills to the Portable Life Support System (PLSS) worn by the crew during EVAs. A cascade is a high pressure gas cylinder system used for the refilling of smaller compressed gas cylinders. Each of the large cylinders are filled by a compressor, but the cascade system allows small cylinders to be filled without the need of a compressor. In addition, the cascade system is useful as a "reservoir" to accommodate low pressure needs. A regression model was developed to provide the mechanism to size the cascade systems subject to constraints such as number of crew, extravehicular activity duration and frequency, and ullage gas requirements under contingency scenarios. The sizing routine employed a numerical integration scheme to determine gas compressibility changes during depressurization and compressibility effects were captured using the Soave-Redlich-Kwong (SRK) equation of state. A multi-dimensional nonlinear optimization routine was used to find the minimum cascade tank system mass that meets the mission requirements. The sizing algorithms developed in this analysis provide a powerful framework to assess cascade filling, compressor, and hybrid systems to design long duration vehicle ECLSS architecture. 1

Yagoda, Evan↗

Accounting for Herbaceous Communities in Process-Based Models Will Advance Our Understanding of “Grassy” Ecosystems

Grassland and other herbaceous communities cover significant portions of Earth's terrestrial surface and provide many critical services, such as carbon sequestration, wildlife habitat, and food production. Forecasts of global change impacts on these services will require predictive tools, such as process-based dynamic vegetation models. Yet, model representation of herbaceous communities and ecosystems lags substantially behind that of tree communities and forests. The limited representation of herbaceous communities within models arises from two important knowledge gaps: first, our empirical understanding of the principles governing herbaceous vegetation dynamics is either incomplete or does not provide mechanistic information necessary to drive herbaceous community processes with models; second, current model structure and parameterization of grass and other herbaceous plant functional types limits the ability of models to predict outcomes of competition and growth for herbaceous vegetation. In this review, we provide direction for addressing these gaps by: (1) presenting a brief history of how vegetation dynamics have been developed and incorporated into earth system models, (2) reporting on a model simulation activity to evaluate current model capability to represent herbaceous vegetation dynamics and ecosystem function, and (3) detailing several ecological properties and phenomena that should be a focus for both empiricists and modelers to improve representation of herbaceous vegetation in models. Together, empiricists and modelers can improve representation of herbaceous ecosystem processes within models. In so doing, we will greatly enhance our ability to forecast future states of the earth system, which is of high importance given the rapid rate of environmental change on our planet.

biogeochemistry↗

Systematic Comparison of Photoionized Plasma Codes with Application to Spectroscopic Studies of AGN in X-Rays

Atomic data and plasma models play a crucial role in the diagnosis and interpretation of astrophysical spectra, thus influencing our understanding of the Universe. In this investigation we present a systematic comparison of the leading photoionization codes to determine how much their intrinsic differences impact X-ray spectroscopic studies of hot plasmas in photoionization equilibrium. We carry out our computations using the Cloudy, SPEX, and XSTAR photoionization codes, and compare their derived thermal and ionization states for various ionizing spectral energy distributions. We examine the resulting absorption-line spectra from these codes for the case of ionized outflows in active galactic nuclei. By comparing the ionic abundances as a function of ionization parameter, we find that on average there is about 30 deviation between the codes in where ionic abundances peak. For H-like to B-like sequence ions alone, this deviation in is smaller at about 10 on average. The comparison of the absorption-line spectra in the X-ray band shows that there is on average about 30 deviation between the codes in the optical depth of the lines produced at log 1 to 2, reducing to about 20 deviation at log 3. We also simulate spectra of the ionized outflows with the current and upcoming high-resolution X-ray spectrometers, on board XMM-Newton, Chandra, Hitomi, and Athena. From these simulations we obtain the deviation on the best-fit model parameters, arising from the use of different photoionization codes, which is about 10 to40. We compare the modeling uncertainties with the observational uncertainties from the simulations. The results highlight the importance of continuous development and enhancement of photoionization codes for the upcoming era of X-ray astronomy with Athena.

plasmas – atomic processes – atomic data – t↗

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗

Effects of control-stick parameters on tracking performance in a vibration environment

A set of manual control experiments was conducted to determine the effects of control stick parameters on tracking performance in a vibration environment. Primary experimental variables were stick design parameters, stick location, and presence or absence of vibration. Considerable effect on control activity suggests that stick design parameters will significantly influence overall performance in systems that respond at vibration frequencies. Stick location had no significant effect on either tracking or biodynamic performance measures. The vibration correlated component of tracking error was relatively small. A model based guide for the design of control sticks in a vibration environment is described. This model is based on the state variable model for pilot/vehicle systems. Effects of vibration are represented as additional model elements and by changes in pilot related parameters of the tracking model.

Levison, W. H.↗

Review of composite propellant burn rate modeling

Steady-state combustion modeling of composite solid propellants is discussed with emphasis on the Beckstead-Derr-Price (BDP) model. The BDP model and some revisions are considered with respect to the analysis of monomodal ammonium perchlorate/inert binder propellants: topics examined include continuity relations, surface area relations, characteristic surface dimension, flame heights, and energy balance. Application of the BDP model to more complicated propellants containing multiple active ingredients is described. These propellants include multimodal, mixed oxidizer, active binder, aluminized, catalyzed, and nitramine propellants. Example cases of modeling (with comparison to experimental data) are presented, and strengths and weaknesses of current modeling approaches are evaluated.

Cohen, N. S.↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Program at NASA Ames Research Center

The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Program at NASA Ames Research Center is reviewed and discussed. The technical elements of the CFD Program are listed and briefly discussed. These elements include algorithm research, research and pilot code development, scientific visualization, advanced surface representation, volume grid generation, and numerical optimization. Next, the discipline of CFD is briefly discussed and related to other areas of research at NASA Ames including experimental fluid dynamics, computer science research, computational chemistry, and numerical aerodynamic simulation. These areas combine with CFD to form a larger area of research, which might collectively be called computational technology. The ultimate goal of computational technology research at NASA Ames is to increase the physical understanding of the world in which we live, solve problems of national importance, and increase the technical capabilities of the aerospace community. Next, the major programs at NASA Ames that either use CFD technology or perform research in CFD are listed and discussed. Briefly, this list includes turbulent/transition physics and modeling, high-speed real gas flows, interdisciplinary research, turbomachinery demonstration computations, complete aircraft aerodynamics, rotorcraft applications, powered lift flows, high alpha flows, multiple body aerodynamics, and incompressible flow applications. Some of the individual problems actively being worked in each of these areas is listed to help define the breadth or extent of CFD involvement in each of these major programs. State-of-the-art examples of various CFD applications are presented to highlight most of these areas. The main emphasis of this portion of the presentation is on examples which will not otherwise be treated at this conference by the individual presentations. Finally, a list of principal current limitations and expected future directions is given.

Holst, Terry L.↗

Computer Program For Variable-Conductance Heat Pipes

VCHPDA provides accurate mathematical models of transient as well as steady-state performance of variable-conductance heat pipes over wide range of operating conditions. Applies to heat pipes with either cold, wicked or hot, nonwicked gas reservoirs and uses ideal-gas law and "flat-front" (negligible vapor diffusion) gas theory. Calculates length of gas-blocked region and temperature of vapor in active portion of heat pipe by solving set of nonlinear equations for conservation of energy and mass. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Antoniuk, D.↗