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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Defect And Damage Characterization Of Additively Manufactured Titanium Alloy Ti-5553 Using Traditional Computed Tomography Volume Segmentation And Machine Learning Algorithms

The mechanical response of a component is affected by defects, such as porosity, arising from the laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) fabrication process. Thus, it is important to develop accurate and efficient inspection methods for identifying porosity. In this work, porosity identified in an X-ray computed tomography (XCT) volume of a Ti-5553 coupon was compared to pores identified in a serial sectioned volume that represented the ground truth. The porosity of the XCT scan was identified using contrast-based, ISO-based, and machine learning (ML) methods for segmentation. Large inherent porosity was easy to identify, but the ISO thresholding still struggled due to the intensity gradient resulting from both the beam hardening in XCT and the uneven lighting of the serial sectioning panels. Further, the results show that ML-based methods were better suited for identifying small pores and reducing the amount of false positives. Additionally, high strain-rate impact testing was done on some of the XCT samples as well as post-mortem XCT inspection, and the same suite of segmentation and quantification tools were used to identify the large spallation cavities. The comparison of porosity pre- and post-mortem provides insight on the influence of the LPBF porosity on the formation of spall cavities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying transport and electrocatalytic reaction processes in a gastight rotating cylinder electrode reactor via integration of Computational Fluid Dynamics modeling and experiments

Understanding the complexity of the multiple processes of mass, momentum, charge, and heat transport, and how these affect reaction kinetics at the electrode/electrolyte interface is one of the major challenges in the field of energy and catalysis. The rapid and rational scale-up of electrocatalytic systems to industrial scales require a detailed understanding of nonlinear transport-reaction processes, accessible only through the building of multi-physics models that capture with high fidelity the complexity of real-world devices. The gastight rotating cylinder electrode (RCE) reactor is a promising lab-scale tool that can decouple transport from intrinsic kinetics to generate data for first-principle models useful in the design of industrial, electrochemical reactors. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) studies have previously been used to investigate the bulk flow in RCE reactors for simple corrosion and electroplating processes. However, the quantification of changes in local concentration within the viscous layer where catalysis takes place requires capturing the correct flow conditions inside the hydrodynamic boundary layer near the surface of the electrode. Further, this requires simulations with spatial resolution in the nm and μm scale and temporal resolutions between ms and s scales that are similar to the timescales for reactions on the electrode surface. In this study, experimental electrocatalysis is combined with CFD modeling to elucidate and parameterize the hydrodynamics in a gastight RCE reactor. CFD simulations of the electrochemical ferricyanide reduction reaction under mass transport limited conditions are used to evaluate the validity of the CFD model parameters by comparing calculated dimensionless mass transport descriptors to dimensionless correlations obtained experimentally. Justifications for assumptions and details of the simulation methods used in this study are presented to provide a detailed understanding of the effect that each model parameter has on the ability to accurately simulate electrocatalysis in RCE systems. The simulation methodology reported here is a first step towards the development of multi-scale models for the study of transport dependent electrocatalytic processes, such as the electrochemical transformation of CO 2 to fuels and chemicals.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIGS: deep inference of galaxy spectra with neural posterior estimation

Abstract With the advent of billion-galaxy surveys with complex data, the need of the hour is to efficiently model galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with robust uncertainty quantification. The combination of simulation-based inference (SBI) and amortized neural posterior estimation (NPE) has been successfully used to analyse simulated and real galaxy photometry both precisely and efficiently. In this work, we utilise this combination and build on existing literature to analyse simulated noisy galaxy spectra. Here, we demonstrate a proof-of-concept study of spectra that is (a) an efficient analysis of galaxy SEDs and inference of galaxy parameters with physically interpretable uncertainties; and (b) amortized calculations of posterior distributions of said galaxy parameters at the modest cost of a few galaxy fits with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We utilise the SED generator and inference framework Prospector to generate simulated spectra, and train a dataset of 2 × 10 6 spectra (corresponding to a five-parameter SED model) with NPE. We show that SBI—with its combination of fast and amortized posterior estimations—is capable of inferring accurate galaxy stellar masses and metallicities. Our uncertainty constraints are comparable to or moderately weaker than traditional inverse-modelling with Bayesian MCMC methods (e.g. 0.17 and 0.26 dex in stellar mass and metallicity for a given galaxy, respectively). We also find that our inference framework conducts rapid SED inference (0.9–1.2 × 10 5 galaxy spectra via SBI/NPE at the cost of 1 MCMC-based fit). With this work, we set the stage for further work that focuses of SED fitting of galaxy spectra with SBI, in the era of JWST galaxy survey programs and the wide-field Roman Space Telescope spectroscopic surveys.

spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2023

A microCT-based platform to quantify drug targeting

Abstract Background Heterotopic ossification (HO) is a frequent and debilitating complication of traumatic musculoskeletal injuries and orthopedic procedures. Prophylactic dosing of botulinum toxin type A (BTxA) holds potential as a novel treatment option if accurately distributed throughout soft-tissue volumes where protection is clinically desired. We developed a high-resolution, microcomputed tomography (microCT)-based imaging strategy to assess drug distribution and validated this platform by quantifying distribution achieved via a prototype delivery system versus a single-bolus injection. Methods We injected an iodine-containing contrast agent (iodixanol 320 mg I/mL) into dissected rabbit musculature followed by microCT imaging and analysis. To contrast the performance of distributed versus bolus injections, a three-dimensional (3D) 64-cm 3 -printed soft-tissue holder was developed. A centered 2-cm 3 volume of interest (VOI) was targeted with a single-bolus injection or an equal volume distributed injection delivered via a 3D-printed prototype. VOI drug coverage was quantified as a percentage of the VOI volume that was < 1.0 mm from the injected fluid. Results The microCT-based approach enabled high-resolution quantification of injection distribution within soft tissue. The distributed dosing prototype provided significantly greater tissue coverage of the targeted VOI (72 ± 3%, mean ± standard deviation) when compared to an equal volume bolus dose (43 ± 5%, p = 0.031) while also enhancing the precision of injection targeting. Conclusions A microCT-based imaging technique precisely quantifies drug distribution within a soft-tissue VOI, providing a path to overcome a barrier for clinical translation of prophylactic inhibition of HO by BTxA. Relevance statement This platform will facilitate rapid optimization of injection parameters for clinical devices used to effectively and safely inhibit the formation of heterotopic ossification. Key points • MicroCT provides high-resolution quantification of soft-tissue drug distribution. • Distributed dosing is required to maximize soft-tissue drug coverage. • Imaging platform will enable rapid screening of 3D-printed drug distribution prototypes. Graphical Abstract

Ausk, Brandon J. (ORCID:0000000335338303)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of the Crack Evolution Process by Extracting Relevant Signal Components from Wave Propagation and Diffusive Transport Front Measurements

Wave propagation and diffusive transport phenomena in a geological rock sample undergoing crack evolution process are expected to interact with the mechanical discontinuities in the medium. The measurements of the signals associated with these phenomena can be used to assess and monitor the crack-driven micromechanical alterations in the rock. Different wave/diffusion phenomena, such as sonic propagation, pressure diffusion, and acoustic emission (AE), are sensitive to different elements of the mechanical discontinuities generated during the evolution of the crack clusters from initiation to coalescence. Sonic propagation, AE, and pressure diffusion monitoring have the potential to map the crack evolution because the transmitter-receiver arrays can be designed, arranged and tuned to (1) achieve maximum recovery of the scattered waveforms and travel times, (2) capture the later arrivals and multiple reflections, and (3) illuminate large rock volume. However, the structural/topological complexities of the mechanical discontinuities, complex distribution of the stress fields, complex mechanical alterations in media, and fluid redistribution in the crack system pose serious challenges for the detection and modeling of the crack evolution process (from here on, we will use the term ‘crack evolution process’ to mean that the crack evolution occurred under shallow crustal conditions). For purposes of accurately accounting such complexities and heterogeneities in the absence of reliable physical laws, simulation methods, and signal processing techniques, my early-career research proposal will develop and apply novel data-driven machine learning methods to: (1) extract signal components relevant to the various phases of crack evolution and (2) generate a 2D visual map of the crack evolution process.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discriminative versus generative approaches to simulation-based inference

Most of the fundamental, emergent, and phenomenological parameters of particle and nuclear physics are determined through parametric template fits. Simulations are used to populate histograms which are then matched to data. This approach is inherently lossy, since histograms are binned and low-dimensional. Deep learning has enabled unbinned and high-dimensional parameter estimation through neural likelihood(-ratio) estimation. We compare two approaches for neural simulation-based inference (NSBI): one based on discriminative learning (classification) and one based on generative modeling. These two approaches are directly evaluated on the same datasets, with a similar level of hyperparameter optimization in both cases. In addition to a Gaussian dataset, we study NSBI using a Higgs boson dataset from the FAIR Universe Challenge. We find that both the direct likelihood and likelihood ratio estimation are able to effectively extract parameters with reasonable uncertainties. For the numerical examples and within the set of hyperparameters studied, we found that the likelihood ratio method is more accurate and/or precise. Both methods have a significant spread from the network training and would require ensembling or other mitigation strategies in practice.

high energy physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Large Scale Study of Ligand–Protein Relative Binding Free Energy Calculations: Actionable Predictions from Statistically Robust Protocols

The accurate and reliable prediction of protein–ligand binding affinities can play a central role in the drug discovery process as well as in personalized medicine. Of considerable importance during lead optimization are the alchemical free energy methods that furnish an estimation of relative binding free energies (RBFE) of similar molecules. Recent advances in these methods have increased their speed, accuracy, and precision. This is evident from the increasing number of retrospective as well as prospective studies employing them. However, such methods still have limited applicability in real-world scenarios due to a number of important yet unresolved issues. Here, we report the findings from a large data set comprising over 500 ligand transformations spanning over 300 ligands binding to a diverse set of 14 different protein targets which furnish statistically robust results on the accuracy, precision, and reproducibility of RBFE calculations. We use ensemble-based methods which are the only way to provide reliable uncertainty quantification given that the underlying molecular dynamics is chaotic. These are implemented using TIES (Thermodynamic Integration with Enhanced Sampling). Results achieve chemical accuracy in all cases. Ensemble simulations also furnish information on the statistical distributions of the free energy calculations which exhibit non-normal behavior. We find that the “enhanced sampling” method known as replica exchange with solute tempering degrades RBFE predictions. We also report definitively on numerous associated alchemical factors including the choice of ligand charge method, flexibility in ligand structure, and the size of the alchemical region including the number of atoms involved in transforming one ligand into another. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable application of RBFE methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1999

Aerosols and Particulates Workshop Sampling Procedures and Venues Working Group Summary

The Sampling Procedures and Venues Workgroup discussed the potential venues available and issues associated with obtaining measurements. Some of the issues included Incoming Air Quality, Sampling Locations, Probes and Sample Systems. The following is a summary of the discussion of the issues and venues. The influence of inlet air to the measurement of exhaust species, especially trace chemical species, must be considered. Analysis procedures for current engine exhaust emissions regulatory measurements require adjustments for air inlet humidity. As a matter of course in scientific investigations, it is recommended that "background" measurements for any species, particulate or chemical, be performed during inlet air flow before initiation of combustion, if possible, and during the engine test period as feasible and practical. For current regulatory measurements, this would be equivalent to setting the "zero" level for conventional gas analyzers. As a minimum, it is recommended that measurements of the humidity and particulates in the incoming air be taken at the start and end of each test run. Additional measurement points taken during the run are desirable if they can be practically obtained. It was felt that the presence of trace gases in the incoming air is not a significant problem. However, investigators should consider the ambient levels and influences of local air pollution for species of interest. Desired measurement locations depend upon the investigation requirements. A complete investigation of phenomenology of particulate formation and growth requires measurements at a number of locations both within the engine and in the exhaust field downstream of the nozzle exit plane. Desirable locations for both extractive and in situ measurements include: (1) Combustion Zone (Multiple axial locations); (2) Combustor Exit (Multiple radial locations for annular combustors); (3) Turbine Stage (Inlet and exit of the stage); (4) Exit Nozzle (Multiple axial locations downstream of the nozzle). Actual locations with potential for extractive or non-intrusive measurements depend upon the test article and test configuration. Committee members expressed the importance of making investigators aware of various ports that could allow access to various stages of the existing engines. Port locations are engine si)ecific and might allow extractive sampling or innovative hybrid optical-probe access. The turbine stage region was one the most desirable locations for obtaining samples and might be accessed through boroscope ports available in some engine designs. Discussions of probes and sampling systems quickly identified issues dependent on particular measurement quantities. With general consensus, the group recommends SAE procedures for measurements and data analyses of currently regulated exhaust species (CO2, CO, THC, NO(x),) using conventional gas sampling techniques. Special procedures following sound scientific practices must be developed as required for species and/or measurement conditions not covered by SAE standards. Several issues arose concerning short lived radicals and highly reactive species. For conventional sampling, there are concerns of perturbing the sample during extraction, line losses, line-wall reactions, and chemical reactions during the sample transport to the analyzers. Sample lines coated with quartz.or other materials should be investigated for minimization of such effects. The group advocates the development of innovative probe techniques and non-intrusive optical techniques for measurement of short lived radicals and highly reactive species that cannot be sampled accurately otherwise. Two innovative probe concepts were discussed. One concept uses specially designed probes to transfer optical beams to and from a region of flow inaccessible by traditional ports or windows. The probe can perturb the flow field but must have a negligible impact on the region to be optically sampled. Such probes are referred to as hybrid probes and are under development at AEDC for measurement in the high pressure, high temperature of a combustor under development for power generation. The other concept consists of coupling an instrument directly to the probe. The probe would isolate a representative sample stream, freeze chemical reactions and direct the sample into the analyzer portion of the probe. Thus, the measurement would be performed in situ without sample line losses due either to reactions or binding at the wall surfaces. This concept was used to develop a fast, in situ, time-of-flight mass spectrometer measurement system for temporal quantification of NO in the IMPULSE facility at AEDC. Additional work is required in this area to determine the best probe and sampling technique for each species measurement requirement identified by the Trace Chemistry Working Group. A partial list of Venues was used as a baseline for discussion. Additional venues were added to the list and the list was broken out into the following categories: (1)Engines (a) Sea Level Test Stands (b) Altitude Chambers; (2) Annular Combustor Test Stands, (3) Sector Flametube Test Stands, (4) Fundamentals Rigs/Experiments.

Pachlhofer, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pu(IV) quantification via visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy: tackling interferences using D-optimal design and partial least squares

Here, this study presents a novel analytical approach for quantifying Pu(IV) in glove box environments using fiber-optic-based visible–near-infrared absorption spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares regression (PLSR) and design of experiments. The method addresses significant challenges posed by overlapping spectral features arising from Nd(III), which is a common fission product impurity, and the speciation variability of Pu(IV) nitrato complexes in HNO 3 concentrations ranging from 2.5 to 11 M. A curated training set consisting of data from 20 samples was developed via D-optimal design to enable robust PLSR model calibration for Pu(IV) using the near-infrared band near 1050 nm. The training set was acquired from samples in cuvettes with a 1-cm path length and was used to build the PLSR model. The robustness of the model was validated with data collected using a dip probe with a 1-cm path length and varying Pu(IV) concentrations. The strong performance of the model indicates good model transfer from cuvette to dip probe and highlights the potential for in situ measurements and online monitoring of reactions in a crystallization reactor vessel. The results demonstrate that this combined spectroscopic and chemometric approach can accurately and simultaneously quantify Pu(IV) and HNO 3 , thereby offering a promising tool for real-time monitoring in process environments.

Actinide↗
DOE OSTI2020

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DeepUQ: Assessing the Aleatoric Uncertainties from two Deep Learning Methods

Assessing the quality of aleatoric uncertainty estimates from uncertainty quantification (UQ) deep learning methods is important in scientific contexts, where uncertainty is physically meaningful and important to characterize and interpret exactly. We systematically compare aleatoric uncertainty measured by two UQ techniques, Deep Ensembles (DE) and Deep Evidential Regression (DER). Our method focuses on both zero-dimensional (0D) and two-dimensional (2D) data, to explore how the UQ methods function for different data dimensionalities. We investigate uncertainty injected on the input and output variables and include a method to propagate uncertainty in the case of input uncertainty so that we can compare the predicted aleatoric uncertainty to the known values. We experiment with three levels of noise. The aleatoric uncertainty predicted across all models and experiments scales with the injected noise level. However, the predicted uncertainty is miscalibrated to $\rm{std}(\sigma_{\rm al})$ with the true uncertainty for half of the DE experiments and almost all of the DER experiments. The predicted uncertainty is the least accurate for both UQ methods for the 2D input uncertainty experiment and the high-noise level. While these results do not apply to more complex data, they highlight that further research on post-facto calibration for these methods would be beneficial, particularly for high-noise and high-dimensional settings.

Nevin, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic machine learning for battery health diagnostics and prognostics—review and perspectives

Abstract Diagnosing lithium-ion battery health and predicting future degradation is essential for driving design improvements in the laboratory and ensuring safe and reliable operation over a product’s expected lifetime. However, accurate battery health diagnostics and prognostics is challenging due to the unavoidable influence of cell-to-cell manufacturing variability and time-varying operating circumstances experienced in the field. Machine learning approaches informed by simulation, experiment, and field data show enormous promise to predict the evolution of battery health with use; however, until recently, the research community has focused on deterministic modeling methods, largely ignoring the cell-to-cell performance and aging variability inherent to all batteries. To truly make informed decisions regarding battery design in the lab or control strategies for the field, it is critical to characterize the uncertainty in a model’s predictions. After providing an overview of lithium-ion battery degradation, this paper reviews the current state-of-the-art probabilistic machine learning models for health diagnostics and prognostics. Details of the various methods, their advantages, and limitations are discussed in detail with a primary focus on probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification. Last, future trends and opportunities for research and development are discussed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient Catalytic Reaction Analysis Through Signal Defragmentation

The Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) pulse response technique provides valuable insights into catalytic function and reaction kinetics. However, complex fragmentation patterns in the TAP mass spectrometry signals can complicate precise quantification, particularly when analyzing transient gas flux data typical of TAP experiments. This work demonstrates a standard defragmentation method that deconvolves transient TAP signals while maintaining the temporal resolution of the experiment. First, the integrals of calibration gas fluxes are used to determine the fingerprint fragmentation pattern and construct a fragmentation matrix. This matrix is then used to defragment experimental flux data at each recorded time point via a non-negative least squares regression. The effectiveness of this method is demonstrated using virtual data and control experiments with a TAP reactor system. The defragmentation is then applied to the more complex propane dehydrogenation reaction on a chromia/alumina catalyst, which can contain up to ten significant gas species in the reactor outlet. Initial propane pulsing reveals an induction period during which propane is fully oxidized to CO2, followed by partial reduction to CO. Afterwards, there is a transition in chemistries towards coking and propylene production. Our example illustrates a practical method for the accurate determination of the time-dependent reactant/product concentrations and rates for a thorough analysis of the propane dehydrogenation kinetics. This approach can be broadly applied to any transient mass spectrometry experiment for a better understanding of catalyst-reaction dynamics.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of Bedrock Landsliding on Cosmogenically Determined Erosion Rates

The successful quantification of long-term erosion rates underpins our understanding of landscape. formation, the topographic evolution of mountain ranges, and the mass balance within active orogens. The measurement of in situ-produced cosmogenic radionuclides (CRNs) in fluvial and alluvial sediments is perhaps the method with the greatest ability to provide such long-term erosion rates. In active orogens, however, deep-seated bedrock landsliding is an important erosional process, the effect of which on CRN-derived erosion rates is largely unquantified. We present a numerical simulation of cosmogenic nuclide production and distribution in landslide-dominated catchments to address the effect of bedrock landsliding on cosmogenic erosion rates in actively eroding landscapes. Results of the simulation indicate that the temporal stability of erosion rates determined from CRN concentrations in sediment decreases with increased ratios of landsliding to sediment detachment rates within a given catchment area, and that larger catchment areas must be sampled with increased frequency of landsliding in order to accurately evaluate long-term erosion rates. In addition, results of this simulation suggest that sediment sampling for CRNs is the appropriate method for determining long-term erosion rates in regions dominated by mass-wasting processes, while bedrock surface sampling for CRNs is generally an ineffective means of determining long-term erosion rates. Response times of CRN concentrations to changes in erosion rate indicate that climatically driven cycles of erosion may be detected relatively quickly after such changes occur, but that complete equilibration of CRN concentrations to new erosional conditions may take tens of thousands of years. Simulation results of CRN erosion rates are compared with a new, rich dataset of CRN concentrations from the Nepalese Himalaya, supporting conclusions drawn from the simulation.

Niemi, Nathan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Importance of different parameterization changes for the updated dust cycle modeling in the Community Atmosphere Model (version 6.1)

Abstract. The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6.1), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM; version 2.1), simulates the life cycle (emission, transport, and deposition) of mineral dust and its interactions with physio-chemical components to quantify the impacts of dust on climate and the Earth system. The accuracy of such quantifications relies on how well dust-related processes are represented in the model. Here we update the parameterizations for the dust module, including those on the dust emission scheme, the aerosol dry deposition scheme, the size distribution of transported dust, and the treatment of dust particle shape. Multiple simulations were undertaken to evaluate the model performance against diverse observations, and to understand how each update alters the modeled dust cycle and the simulated dust direct radiative effect. The model–observation comparisons suggest that substantially improved model representations of the dust cycle are achieved primarily through the new more physically-based dust emission scheme. In comparison, the other modifications induced small changes to the modeled dust cycle and model–observation comparisons, except the size distribution of dust in the coarse mode, which can be even more influential than that of replacing the dust emission scheme. We highlight which changes introduced here are important for which regions, shedding light on further dust model developments required for more accurately estimating interactions between dust and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Detection and Retrieval of Multi-Layered Cloud Properties Using Satellite Data

Four techniques for detecting multilayered clouds and retrieving the cloud properties using satellite data are explored to help address the need for better quantification of cloud vertical structure. A new technique was developed using multispectral imager data with secondary imager products (infrared brightness temperature differences, BTD). The other methods examined here use atmospheric sounding data (CO2-slicing, CO2), BTD, or microwave data. The CO2 and BTD methods are limited to optically thin cirrus over low clouds, while the MWR methods are limited to ocean areas only. This paper explores the use of the BTD and CO2 methods as applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer EOS (AMSR-E) data taken from the Aqua satellite over ocean surfaces. Cloud properties derived from MODIS data for the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Project are used to classify cloud phase and optical properties. The preliminary results focus on a MODIS image taken off the Uruguayan coast. The combined MW visible infrared (MVI) method is assumed to be the reference for detecting multilayered ice-over-water clouds. The BTD and CO2 techniques accurately match the MVI classifications in only 51 and 41% of the cases, respectively. Much additional study is need to determine the uncertainties in the MVI method and to analyze many more overlapped cloud scenes.

Minnis, Patrick↗