Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Yield Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34

Geothermal Heat Pump System Showcase: Short-Term Validation of Borehole Heat Exchanger Performance from Field Data to Numerical Modeling: Preprint

Since 2011, a geothermal heat pump (GHP) system has been operating to provide space heating and cooling for the Solar Radiation and Research Laboratory building at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) in Golden, Colorado. The system consists of 23 vertical boreholes, each extending to a depth of 300 ft (91 m), connected to 11 water-to-air heat pump units and four circulation pumps. Between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, additional power meters and temperature sensors were retrofitted to support detailed system performance assessment and model development. This study presents preliminary monitoring results and the development of an initial numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger field. The model incorporated site-specific geometry, ground thermal properties derived from thermal response tests, and ambient temperatures, and simulated system behavior over a representative operating day in September. Model predictions of outlet temperatures were compared against corresponding field measurements. Results showed that modeling initialized with a simplified linear subsurface temperature gradient presents systematic discrepancies in outlet temperature, whereas incorporating depth-resolved borehole temperature measurements for initialization yields substantially improved agreement with observations. The findings highlight the sensitivity of short-term predictive modeling to the representation of initial subsurface thermal conditions and underscore the value of high-resolution field measurements for model calibration and validation. These preliminary results inform ongoing efforts to extend the modeling framework to longer time horizons and to refine monitoring and modeling strategies that support the design guidance and operational optimization of GHP systems in research and commercial buildings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Exact solution of burst pressure for thick-walled pipes using the flow theory of plasticity

This paper develops an exact solution of burst pressure for defect-free, thick-walled pipes using the flow theory of plasticity in terms of the average shear stress yield criterion (or Zhu-Leis yield criterion). The pipe steel is assumed to obey the power-law strain hardening rule, and large plastic deformation is described by the finite strain theory. On this basis, internal pressure is obtained as a power series function of the effective strains on the inside and outside surfaces of the thick-walled pipe with use of the second Bernoulli numbers. At burst failure, the Zhu-Leis flow solution of burst pressure is determined as a power series solution, and the burst effective strains, the burst effective stresses, and the burst pressure are functions of the diameter ratio (D o / D i ), strain hardening exponent (n), and ultimate tensile strength (UTS). Similarly, the Tresca and von Mises flow solutions of burst pressure are also determined as a power series solution in terms of the Tresca and von Mises yield criteria. A general closed-from exact solution of burst pressure is then proposed for the three yield criteria, and the results showed that the proposed exact solution matches well with the power series solution for each yield criterion. Moreover, the von Mises flow solution is an upper bound prediction, the Tresca flow solution is a lower bound prediction, and the Zhu-Leis flow solution is an intermediate prediction that agrees well with the finite element analysis results of burst pressure for thick-walled pipes. Furthermore, two datasets of full-scale burst tests are then utilized to evaluate and validate the proposed flow solutions of burst pressure for both thin and thick-walled pipes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Benchmarking Cylindrical Blast Wave Theory Against the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule Reentry

Weak shock theory based on cylindrical blast waves has been used to interpret meteor infrasound, but it has not been systematically benchmarked against a non-ablating hypersonic source with independently known parameters. The objective of this study is not to propose a new theoretical framework, but to evaluate the operational validity of the existing suite of blast radius formulations against a high-fidelity ground truth dataset. The OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule reentry on 24 September 2023 provides such a benchmark because the capsule geometry, trajectory, and infrasound emission points are constrained from mission data and ray tracing, reducing source-side uncertainty associated with ablation. Using observations from 39 infrasound stations, this benchmarking study evaluates six published blast radius (${R}_{0}$ ) formulations and three weak-shock transition coefficients ( C ) within a stratified atmospheric propagation model to predict signal period and peak overpressure. The benchmarking identifies the Sakurai formulation as the best-performing formulation for non-ablating bodies, with the Jones/Plooster formulation performing comparably when a physically appropriate C is adopted. Sakurai and Jones/Plooster yield linear-period median absolute percentage residuals of 9% and 11%, respectively. The period predictions show only weak sensitivity to C at these propagation distances. The Mach-diameter approximation commonly used in meteor studies overestimates ${R}_{0}$ by more than a factor of 3 in the absence of ablation. Finally, these results establish a performance baseline for applying cylindrical blast wave theory to effectively non-ablating hypersonic bodies and demonstrate that the signal period is a robust observable for constraining ${R}_{0}$.

atmospheric entry↗

High-throughput exploration of the WMoVTaNbAl refractory multi-principal-element alloys under multiple-property constraints

Development of next-generation gas turbines requires the design and fabrication of novel high-temperature structural materials capable of operating beyond 1300°C. Here, we propose a high-throughput alloy design framework under multiple-property constraints to discover new refractory multi-principal element alloys (MPEAs) for high-temperature applications. The framework treats the development of MPEAs as a composition-agnostic constraint satisfaction problem, i.e., no prescriptions are made concerning the design space before performing investigatory calculations. We target alloys in the WMoVTaNbAl chemistry space that are predicted to meet constraints on the following properties simultaneously: single-phase stability, density, solidus temperature, yield strength at 1300°C, and ductile-to-brittle-transition temperature. These properties are relevant to both applications in gas turbines and manufacturability. A set of 214 MoNbV-rich alloys meet these relevant constraints. These feasible alloys are investigated with density functional theory (DFT) to provide a fundamental electronic basis for their superior properties. Three compositionally representative alloys from the feasible design space (Mo 45 Nb 35 Ta 5 V 15 , Mo 25 Nb 50 V 20 W 5 , and Mo 30 Nb 35 Ta 5 V 25 W 5 ) are selected with a k-medoids-based design scheme for detailed DFT analysis and experimental characterization. The DFT analysis predicted a single-phase BCC at high temperatures with a high yield strength for all three MPEAs, in agreement with CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) and experiments, respectively. These three alloys are benchmarked against a public database of 1546 MPEAs. Concerning the aforementioned constraints, the Mo 30 Nb 35 Ta 5 V 25 W 5 alloy outperforms these 1546 MPEAs. The present work demonstrates the ability of the proposed design methodology to identify candidate alloys for a given application under multiple property constraints in a combinatorically vast design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Genomic prediction of switchgrass winter survivorship across diverse lowland populations

Abstract In the North-Central United States, lowland ecotype switchgrass can increase yield by up to 50% compared with locally adapted but early flowering cultivars. However, lowland ecotypes are not winter tolerant. The mechanism for winter damage is unknown but previously has been associated with late flowering time. This study investigated heading date (measured for two years) and winter survivorship (measured for three years) in a multi-generation population generated from two winter-hardy lowland individuals and diverse southern lowland populations. Sequencing data (311,776 markers) from 1,306 individuals were used to evaluate genome-wide trait prediction through cross-validation and progeny prediction (n = 52). Genetic variance for heading date and winter survivorship was additive with high narrow-sense heritability (0.64 and 0.71, respectively) and reliability (0.68 and 0.76, respectively). The initial negative correlation between winter survivorship and heading date degraded across generations (F1 r = −0.43, pseudo-F2 r = −0.28, pseudo-F2 progeny r = −0.15). Within-family predictive ability was moderately high for heading date and winter survivorship (0.53 and 0.52, respectively). A multi-trait model did not improve predictive ability for either trait. Progeny predictive ability was 0.71 for winter survivorship and 0.53 for heading date. These results suggest that lowland ecotype populations can obtain sufficient survival rates in the northern United States with two or three cycles of effective selection. Despite accurate genomic prediction, naturally occurring winter mortality successfully isolated winter tolerant genotypes and appears to be an efficient method to develop high-yielding, cold-tolerant switchgrass cultivars.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Graph neural networks for efficient learning of mechanical properties of polycrystals

Herein we present graph neural networks (GNNs) as an efficient and accurate machine learning approach to predict mechanical properties of polycrystalline materials. Here, a GNN was developed based on graph representation of polycrystals incorporating only fundamental features of grains including their crystallographic orientation, size, and grain neighbor connectivity information. We tested our method on modeling stiffness and yield strength of α -Ti microstructures, varying in their crystallographic texture. We find the GNN predicts both properties with high accuracy with mean relative errors of ~1% for unseen microstructures from a given set of textures and < 2% for microstructures of unseen texture, even when presented with limited training data. This accuracy is comparable to methods that require high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) microstructure data, such as 3D convolutional neural networks (3D-CNNs) and models that depend on the computation of spatial statistics. The present results show that graph-based deep learning is a promising framework for property prediction, especially considering the high cost associated with obtaining high-resolution 3D microstructure data and the general scarcity of experimental materials datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scalar-induced neutrinoless double beta decay in SU(5)

We discuss the role of heavy scalar fields in mediating neutrinoless double beta decay (0νββ) within the SU(5) Grand Unified Theory framework, extended suitably to include neutrino mass. In such a minimal realistic SU(5) setup for fermion masses, the scalar contributions to 0νββ are extremely suppressed as a consequence of the proton decay bound. We circumvent this problem by imposing a discrete Z 3 symmetry. However, the scalar contributions to 0νββ remain suppressed in this SU(5) x Z 3 model due to the neutrino mass constraint. We find that the 0νββ contribution can be enhanced by extending the scalar sector with an additional 15-dimensional scalar representation with suitable Z 3 charge. Such an extension not only yields realistic fermion mass spectra but also leads to experimentally testable predictions in upcoming ton-scale 0νββ searches, which can be used as a sensitive probe of the new scalars across a broad range, from LHC-accessible scales up to ∼ 10 10 GeV.

Baryon/Lepton Number Violation↗

Interpenetration and kinetic effects in converging, high-energy plasma jets

In this work, we report on numerical simulations of laser-driven convergent plasma fusion targets. These “inverted corona” fusion targets are useful for the study of counter-streaming and converging rarefied plasma flows, and previous experiments have demonstrated their potential as neutron sources. The scheme consists of a fuel layer lined along the interior surface of a hollow plastic shell that is laser-ablated and expands inward towards the target center. The plasma streams generated in these targets are initially nearly collisionless as they converge, leading to wide interaction length scales and long interaction time scales as the jets interpenetrate. Such kinetic effects impact mixing of constituent ions - a phenomenon not properly captured by single-fluid hydrodynamic simulations. Here we conduct numerical simulations using two different methods: (1) single-fluid simulations in HYDRA, and (2) kinetic-ion, fluid-electron hybrid particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations in the code Chicago. It is shown that the initially nearly collisionless plasma fronts interpenetrate deeply and lead to broader interaction regions in space and time resulting in significant beam-beam fusion. The two approaches make different, testable predictions for the effect of fuel-layer thickness on neutron yield.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Measurement of 3 Λ H production in Pb–Pb collisions at √ s NN = 5.02 TeV

The first measurement of 3 Λ H and $^{3}_{\overline{Λ}}$$\overline{H}$ differential production with respect to transverse momentum and centrality in Pb–Pb collisions at √ s NN = 5.02 TeV is presented. The 3 Λ H has been reconstructed via its two-charged-body decay channel, i.e., 3 Λ H → 3 He → π - . A Blast-Wave model fit of the p T -differential spectra of all nuclear species measured by the ALICE collaboration suggests that the kinetic freeze-out surface is consistent with that of other nuclei. The ratio between the integrated yields of 3 Λ H and 3 He is compared to predictions from the statistical hadronisation model and the coalescence model, with the latter being favoured by the presented measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Synthesis and Structural Study of Substituted Ternary Nitrides for Ammonia Production

Over the past few decades, inorganic nitride materials have grown in importance in part due to their potential as catalysts for the synthesis of NH 3 , a key ingredient in fertilizer and precursor to industrial chemicals. Of particular interest are the ternary (ABN) or higher-order nitrides with high metal-to-nitrogen ratios that show promise in enhancing NH 3 synthesis reaction rates and yields via heterogeneous catalysis or chemical looping. Although metal nitrides are predicted to be numerous, the stability of nitrogen triple bonds found in N 2 , especially in comparison to the metal–nitrogen bonds, has considerably hindered synthetic efforts to produce complex nitride compounds. In this study, we present an exhaustive down-selection process to identify ternary nitrides for a promising chemical looping NH 3 production mechanism. We also report on a facile and efficient two-step synthesis method that can produce well-characterized η-carbide Co 3 Mo 3 N/Fe 3 Mo 3 N or filled β-manganese Ni 2 Mo 3 N ternaries, as well as their associated quaternary, (Co,Fe) 3 Mo 3 N, (Fe,Ni) 2 Mo 3 N, and (Co,Ni) 2 Mo 3 N, solid solutions. To further explore the quaternary space, syntheses of (Co,Ni) 3 Mo 3 N (Ni ≤ 10 mol %) and Co 3 (Mo,W) 3 N (W ≤ 10 mol %) were also investigated. The structures of the nitrides were characterized via X-ray powder diffraction. The morphology and compositions were characterized with scanning electron microscopy. In conclusion, the multitude of chemically unique, but structurally related, nitrides suggests that properties such as nitrogen activity may be tunable, making the materials of great interest for NH 3 synthesis schemes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ab initio molecular dynamics free energy study of enhanced copper (II) dimerization on mineral surfaces

Understanding the adsorption of isolated metal cations from water on to mineral surfaces is critical for toxic waste retention and cleanup in the environment. Heterogeneous nucleation of metal oxyhydroxides and other minerals on material surfaces is key to crystal growth and dissolution. The link connecting these two areas, namely cation dimerization and polymerization, is far less understood. In this work we apply ab initio molecular dynamics calculations to examine the coordination structure of hydroxide-bridged Cu(II) dimers, and the free energy changes associated with Cu(II) dimerization on silica surfaces. The dimer dissociation pathway involves sequential breaking of two Cu 2+ -OH – bonds, yielding three local minima in the free energy profiles associated with 0-2 OH – bridges between the metal cations, and requires the design of a (to our knowledge) novel reaction coordinate for the simulations. Cu(II) adsorbed on silica surfaces are found to exhibit stronger tendency towards dimerization than when residing in water. Cluster-plus-implicit-solvent methods yield incorrect trends if OH – hydration is not correctly depicted. The predicted free energy landscapes are consistent with fast equilibrium times (seconds) among adsorbed structures, and favor Cu 2+ dimer formation on silica surfaces over monomer adsorption.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Seismoacoustic analysis of underground explosions using the Rayleigh integral

SUMMARY A coupled seismoacoustic model is developed for the analysis of acoustic signals produced by underground explosive events with an aim to develop a means of improving estimated depth and yield for explosion monitoring. A ground spall model is used to predict surface motion characteristics produced by an underground explosion and the Rayleigh integral is applied to relate the surface motion to the acoustic signal some distance from surface ground zero. The low-frequency component of the ground motion associated with the prolonged free fall of lofted material during spall is found to dominate the acoustic signal propagating away from surface ground zero at shallow angles. The model is applied to observed ground motion and acoustic signals recorded during the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) with promising results. In addition to accurately predicting characteristics of the observed acoustic signals from several of the SPE events, the model provides a means of explaining the lack of signals observed during several events in the SPE due to the directionality of the higher frequency acoustic signals associated with the uplift and closure components as well as the lack of a spatially localized, longer duration dwell.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mixing by internal gravity waves in stars: assessing numerical simulations against theory

ABSTRACT Here we present a study of radial chemical mixing in non-rotating massive main-sequence stars driven by internal gravity waves (IGWs), based on multidimensional hydrodynamical simulations with the fully compressible code MUSIC. We examine two proposed mechanisms of material mixing in stars by IGWs that are commonly quoted, relating to thermal diffusion and sub-wavelength shearing. Thermal diffusion provides a non-restorative effect to the waves, leaving material displaced from its previous equilibrium, while shearing arising within the waves drives weak localized flows, mixing the fluid there. Using IGW spectra from the simulations, we evaluate theoretical predictions of mixing rates due to these mechanisms. We show, for $20\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ main-sequence stars, that neither of these mechanisms are likely to create mixing sufficient to correct inaccuracies in current stellar evolution models. Furthermore, we compare these predictions to results obtained from Lagrangian tracer particles, following a method recently used for global simulations of stellar interiors to measure mixing by IGWs in their radiative zones. We demonstrate that tracer particle methods face significant numerical challenges in measuring the small diffusion coefficients predicted by the aforementioned theories, for which they are prone to yielding artificially enhanced coefficients. Diffusion coefficients based on such methods are currently used with stellar evolution codes for asteroseismic studies, but should be viewed with caution. Finally, in a case where tracer particles do not suffer from numerical artefacts, we suggest that a diffusion model is not suitable for time-scales typically considered by 2D numerical simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Influence of nonstatistical properties in nuclear structure on emission of prompt fission neutrons

We report the Hauser-Feshbach fission-fragment decay (HF 3 D) model is extended to calculate the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) for the thermal-neutron-induced fission on 235 U, where the evaporated neutrons from all possible fission-fragment pairs are aggregated. By studying model parameter sensitivities on the calculated PFNS as well as nonstatistical behavior of low-lying discrete level spin distribution, we conclude that discrepancies between the aggregation calculation and the experimental PFNS seen at higher neutron emission energies can be attributed to both the primary fission-fragment yield distribution and the possible high spin states that are not predicted by the statistical theory of nuclear structure.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Energy filtering–induced ultrahigh thermoelectric power factors in Ni 3 Ge

Traditional thermoelectric materials rely on low thermal conductivity to enhance their efficiency but suffer from inherently limited power factors. Innovative pathways to optimize electronic transport are thus crucial. Here, we achieve ultrahigh power factors in Ni 3 Ge-based systems through an unconventional thermoelectric materials design principle. When overlapping flat and dispersive bands are engineered to the Fermi level, charge carriers can undergo intense interband scattering, yielding an energy filtering effect similar to what has long been predicted in certain nanostructured materials. Via a multistep DFT-based screening method developed here, we find a family of L1 2 -ordered binary compounds with ultrahigh power factors up to 11 mW m −1 K −2 near room temperature, which are driven by an intrinsic phonon-mediated energy filtering mechanism. Our comprehensive experimental and theoretical study of these intriguing materials paves the way for understanding and designing high-performance scattering-tuned metallic thermoelectrics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

(U) A General-Purpose Code for Correlated Sampling Using Batch Statistics with MCNP6 for Fixed-Source Problems

Correlated sampling can be used to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies by taking advantage of the negative covariance term in the sandwich formula. Booth first showed how correlated sampling can be applied with batch statistics using MCNP’s tally fluctuation chart (TFC) to reduce the uncertainty of a difference of tallies in fixed-source problems. Booth presented a problem in which a 1273% uncertainty in a difference was reduced to 8% by accounting for correlations. Researchers He and Su recently studied correlated sampling using the TFC in MCNP version 5. They determined that the code did not print enough digits in the TFC tally means for accurate batch statistics in some cases. After modifying the source code, they concluded that “correlated sampling can yield a standard deviation of about one magnitude smaller than that predicted by the direct, un-correlated simulation when the changes in system response are small (say about 1%), which is equivalent to saving in CPU time by a factor of 100. Such saving [sic] becomes less significant as the change in system response becomes larger.” He and Su provided the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a difference of tallies. In this report, we follow up on their work by providing the formulas needed to apply batch statistics to compute the correlated uncertainty of a ratio of tallies and of a difference of two tallies divided by a third tally. We extend these formulas to differences and ratios of ratios. These formulas are applied to reduce the uncertainty associated with calculating a relative sensitivity. He and Su did not investigate the accuracy of their correlated sampling uncertainty estimates. We use their test problems and evaluate the accuracy of the uncertainty estimates by comparing with results obtained from random sampling, and, in simple cases, with theoretical values of the “exact” uncertainties. We find that the uncertainties obtained from batch statistics are accurate as long as at least 100 batches are used. We present a new computer code, COSUBS (COrrelated Sampling Using Batch Statistics), that reads MCNP6 TFCs and applies correlated sampling using batch statistics for the tally combinations that the user specifies. COSUBS is a very general tool that compares all TFCs for a base case and one or two perturbed cases. It computes uncertainties for ratios if given only a base case. This report is organized as follows. The equations to apply batch statistics to the difference of random tallies are reviewed in Sec. II. Section III presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a ratio of random tallies; this is useful for computing relative sensitivities using a one-sided finite difference and the relative sensitivity using the differential operator method. Section IV presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two random tallies divided by a third; this is useful for computing a relative sensitivities using a central difference. Section V presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a difference of two ratios with four random tallies. Section VI presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a one-sided finite difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses four random tallies). Section VII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a central difference estimate of the relative sensitivity of a ratio (this uses six random tallies). Section VIII presents the equations for applying batch statistics to a sum of random tallies. Section IX discusses how to apply batch statistics using MCNP6. Section X presents COSUBS, describing its command-line options and logic. Sections XI through XVI present numerical results for various test problems. Section XVII is a summary and conclusions. Appendix A derives the theoretical Monte Carlo tally variance given certain assumptions; these variances are used to verify the batch statistics for some of the problems. Appendix B lists the MCNP6 input for the unperturbed example problem. Appendix C presents modifications made to MCNP6.3 to support this work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Steady state radiolysis–polyhalide accumulation products [Poster]

The study of steady-state radiolysis of polyhalides is crucial as it simulates the prolonged radiation exposure that materials (e.g., alloys, molten salts) experience in reactor environments. This research provides valuable insights into the long-term effects on material properties, chemical stability, and structural integrity. It is closely linked with fundamental radiation chemistry, which aids in predicting the chemical behavior of accumulation products. Understanding the initial speciation, yield, and chemical evolution of radiolysis products is essential for managing material degradation, controlling corrosion, and ensuring reactor safety.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pyrolysis_Molecular_Beam_Mass_Spectra_for_Standard_Biomass_Samples_and_Natural_Variants_of_Switchgrass_Grown_Under_Different_Conditions

This data consists of total ion chromatogram (TIC) normalized Pyrolysis-Molecular Beam Mass Spectrometry (py-MBMS) spectra collected to predict lignin content and lignin monomeric ratios for “Variation in Biomass Yield and Cell Wall Composition in Switchgrass Natural Variants Under Two Nitrogen Regimes” (https://doi.org/10.1007/s12155-025-10838-8).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗