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At least 613 records · Page 34

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Malin, Jane T.↗

Modeling Fire Severity in Black Spruce Stands in the Alaskan Boreal Forest Using Spectral and Non-Spectral Geospatial Data

Biomass burning in the Alaskan interior is already a major disturbance and source of carbon emissions, and is likely to increase in response to the warming and drying predicted for the future climate. In addition to quantifying changes to the spatial and temporal patterns of burned areas, observing variations in severity is the key to studying the impact of changes to the fire regime on carbon cycling, energy budgets, and post-fire succession. Remote sensing indices of fire severity have not consistently been well-correlated with in situ observations of important severity characteristics in Alaskan black spruce stands, including depth of burning of the surface organic layer. The incorporation of ancillary data such as in situ observations and GIS layers with spectral data from Landsat TM/ETM+ greatly improved efforts to map the reduction of the organic layer in burned black spruce stands. Using a regression tree approach, the R2 of the organic layer depth reduction models was 0.60 and 0.55 (pb0.01) for relative and absolute depth reduction, respectively. All of the independent variables used by the regression tree to estimate burn depth can be obtained independently of field observations. Implementation of a gradient boosting algorithm improved the R2 to 0.80 and 0.79 (pb0.01) for absolute and relative organic layer depth reduction, respectively. Independent variables used in the regression tree model of burn depth included topographic position, remote sensing indices related to soil and vegetation characteristics, timing of the fire event, and meteorological data. Post-fire organic layer depth characteristics are determined for a large (N200,000 ha) fire to identify areas that are potentially vulnerable to a shift in post-fire succession. This application showed that 12% of this fire event experienced fire severe enough to support a change in post-fire succession. We conclude that non-parametric models and ancillary data are useful in the modeling of the surface organic layer fire depth. Because quantitative differences in post-fire surface characteristics do not directly influence spectral properties, these modeling techniques provide better information than the use of remote sensing data alone.

Barrett, K.↗

Wide-Field Optic for Autonomous Acquisition of Laser Link

An innovation reported in Two-Camera Acquisition and Tracking of a Flying Target, NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 8 (August 2008), p. 20, used a commercial fish-eye lens and an electronic imaging camera for initially locating objects with subsequent handover to an actuated narrow-field camera. But this operated against a dark-sky background. An improved solution involves an optical design based on custom optical components for the wide-field optical system that directly addresses the key limitations in acquiring a laser signal from a moving source such as an aircraft or a spacecraft. The first challenge was to increase the light collection entrance aperture diameter, which was approximately 1 mm in the first prototype. The new design presented here increases this entrance aperture diameter to 4.2 mm, which is equivalent to a more than 16 times larger collection area. One of the trades made in realizing this improvement was to restrict the field-of-view to +80 deg. elevation and 360 azimuth. This trade stems from practical considerations where laser beam propagation over the excessively high air mass, which is in the line of sight (LOS) at low elevation angles, results in vulnerability to severe atmospheric turbulence and attenuation. An additional benefit of the new design is that the large entrance aperture is maintained even at large off-axis angles when the optic is pointed at zenith. The second critical limitation for implementing spectral filtering in the design was tackled by collimating the light prior to focusing it onto the focal plane. This allows the placement of the narrow spectral filter in the collimated portion of the beam. For the narrow band spectral filter to function properly, it is necessary to adequately control the range of incident angles at which received light intercepts the filter. When this angle is restricted via collimation, narrower spectral filtering can be implemented. The collimated beam (and the filter) must be relatively large to reduce the incident angle down to only a few degrees. In the presented embodiment, the filter diameter is more than ten times larger than the entrance aperture. Specifically, the filter has a clear aperture of about 51 mm. The optical design is refractive, and is comprised of nine custom refractive elements and an interference filter. The restricted maximum angle through the narrow-band filter ensures the efficient use of a 2-nm noise equivalent bandwidth spectral width optical filter at low elevation angles (where the range is longest), at the expense of less efficiency for high elevations, which can be tolerated because the range at high elevation angles is shorter. The image circle is 12 mm in diameter, mapped to 80 x 360 of sky, centered on the zenith.

Page, Norman A.↗

A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of monthly IST of the Greenland ice sheet, from 1982 to the present using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data at 5-km resolution. "Clear-sky" surface temperature increases have been measured from the early 1980s to the early 2000s in the Arctic using AVHRR data, showing increases ranging from 0.57-0.02 (Wang and Key, 2005) to 0.72 0.10 deg C per decade (Comiso, 2006). Arctic warming has implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the ice sheet is near 0 deg C in the melt season and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting (Hanna et al., 2008). The algorithm used for this work has a long history of measuring IST in the Arctic with AVHRR (Key and Haefliger, 1992). The data are currently available from 1981 to 2004 in the AVHRR Polar Pathfinder (APP) dataset (Fowler et al., 2000). J. Key1NOAA modified the AVHRR algorithm for use with MODIS (Hall et al., 2004). The MODIS algorithm is now being processed over Greenland. Issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover, and cross-calibration between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, time series of satellite ISTs do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with in-situ (see Koenig and Hall, in press) and automatic-weather station data (e.g., Shuman et al., 2001).

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Remembrance of Things Future: Prospective Memory in Laboratory, Workplace, and Everyday Settings

In this review, oriented to the human factors community, I will summarize and provide a perspective on recent research and theory on prospective memory. This will not be an exhaustive review of literature, which is already available in two excellent recent books that provide a wealth of detail on the current state of experimental research (Kliegel, McCaniel, & Einstein, 2008; McDaniel & Einstein, 2007; also see Brandimonte, Einstein, & McDaniel, 1996, for a still relevant overview of the field as it was emerging). Rather, I will explore the limits of existing experimental paradigms and theory, Vvilich, in my opinion, fail to capture some critical aspects of performance outside the laboratory. I will also review the relatively few studies in workplace and everyday settings and will discuss several studies that attempt to bridge between the bulk of experimental studies and these few naturalistic studies. Finally, I will describe countermeasures that can reduce vulnerability to forgetting to perform intended tasks, and I will propose a research agenda that would extend existing experimental and theoretical approaches and would support human factors practitioners by generating information on a wide range of issues relevant to prospective memory performance in natural settings.

Dismukes, R. Key↗

Recent Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet as Seen from Space

Many changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet have been reported in the recent scientific literature and have been attributed to various responses of the ice sheet due to regional (and global) warming. Because melting of the ice sheet would contribute approximately 7 m to sea-level rise, the lives and habitat of hundreds of millions of people worldwide would be directly and indirectly affected if continued ice-sheet melting occurs. As mean-annual global temperatures have increased, there has been an increasing focus on studying the Greenland Ice Sheet using available satellite data, and numerous expeditions have been undertaken. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 C to 0.72+/-0.10 C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to more extensive melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue of increasing concern to billions of people worldwide. The surface temperature of the ice sheet has been studied in even greater detail using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data in the six individual drainage basins as well as for the ice sheet as a whole. Surface temperature trends in the decade of the 2000s have not been strong, according to the MODIS measurements. In addition to surface-temperature increases over the last few decades as measured by AVHRR, other changes have been observed such as accelerated movement of many of Greenland's outlet glaciers and sudden draining of supraglacial lakes. Decreasing mass of the ice sheet since (at least) 2002 has been measured using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, along with an build-up of ice at the higher elevations and a decrease of ice at the lower elevations as measured using airborne Lidar and Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data. The seminar will address the above issues using a variety of NASA satellite data and ground observations.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered somewhat in 2008, 2009 and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, the trends in the extent and area remain strongly negative at -12.2% and -13.5 %/decade, respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data in the winters of 1979 to 2011 was studied and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of -15.1% and -17.2 % per decade, respectively, with record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Such high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007 suggesting a strong role of second year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature which is increasing at about three times global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the AO which controls the dynamics of the region. An 8 to 9-year cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record which could explain in part the slight recovery in the last three years.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Development of a Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Regional "clear sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57+/-0.02 deg C to 72+/-0.10 deg C per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near 0 deg C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. To quantify the ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and to provide an IST dataset of Greenland for modelers that provides uncertainties, we are developing a climate-data record (CDR) of daily "clear-sky" IST of the Greenland Ice Sheet, from 1982 to the present using AVHRR (1982 - present) and Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data (2000 - present) at a resolution of approximately 5 km. Known issues being addressed in the production of the CDR are: time-series bias caused by cloud cover (surface temperatures can be different under clouds vs. clear areas) and cross-calibration in the overlap period between AVHRR instruments, and between AVHRR and MODIS instruments. Because of uncertainties, mainly due to clouds, time-series of satellite IST do not necessarily correspond with actual surface temperatures. The CDR will be validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products and biases will be calculated.

Hall, Dorthy K.↗

A Climate-Data Record (CDR) of the "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

We have developed a climate-data record (CDR) of "clear-sky" ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The CDR provides daily and monthly-mean IST from March 2000 through December 2010 on a polar stereographic projection at a resolution of 6.25 km. The CDR is amenable to extension into the future using Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data. Regional "clear-sky" surface temperature increases since the early 1980s in the Arctic, measured using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) infrared data, range from 0.57 +/- 0.02 to 0.72 +/- 0.1 c per decade. Arctic warming has important implications for ice-sheet mass balance because much of the periphery of the Greenland Ice Sheet is already near O C during the melt season, and is thus vulnerable to rapid melting if temperatures continue to increase. An increase in melting of the ice sheet would accelerate sea-level rise, an issue affecting potentially billions of people worldwide. The IST CDR will provide a convenient data set for modelers and for climatologists to track changes of the surface temperature of the ice sheet as a whole and of the individual drainage basins on the ice sheet. The daily and monthly maps will provide information on surface melt as well as "clear-sky" temperature. The CDR will be further validated by comparing results with automatic-weather station data and with satellite-derived surface-temperature products.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

The Impact of Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) on VLBI2010

A significant motivation for the development of a next generation system for geodetic VLBI was to address growing problems related to RFI. In this regard, the broadband 2-14 GHz frequency range proposed for VLBI2010 has advantages and disadvantages. It has the advantage of flexible allocation of band frequencies and hence the ability to avoid areas of the spectrum where RFI is worst. However, the receiver is at the same time vulnerable to saturation from RFI anywhere in the full 2-14 GHz range. The impacts of RFI on the VLBI2010 analog signal path, the sampler, and the digital signal processing are discussed. In addition, a number of specific RFI examples in the 2-14 GHz range are presented.

Petrachenko, William↗

NASA's Earth Venture-1 (EV-1) Airborne Science Investigations

In 2010, NASA announced the first Earth Venture (EV-1) selections in response to a recommendation made by the National Research Council for low-cost investigations fostering innovation in Earth science. The five EV-1 investigations span the Earth science focus areas of atmosphere, weather, climate, water and energy and, carbon and represent earth science researchers from NASA as well as other government agencies, academia and industry from around the world. The EV-1 missions are: 1) Airborne Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Subsurface (AirMOSS), 2) Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX), 3) Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE), 4) Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality (DISCOVER-AQ), and 5) Hurricane And Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3). The Earth Venture missions are managed out of the Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) Program Office (Allen, et. al. 2010b)

Guillory, A.↗

Man-Machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) v5: Augmentations, Motivations, and Directions for Aeronautics Applications

As automation and advanced technologies are introduced into transport systems ranging from the Next Generation Air Transportation System termed NextGen, to the advanced surface transportation systems as exemplified by the Intelligent Transportations Systems, to future systems designed for space exploration, there is an increased need to validly predict how the future systems will be vulnerable to error given the demands imposed by the assistive technologies. One formalized approach to study the impact of assistive technologies on the human operator in a safe and non-obtrusive manner is through the use of human performance models (HPMs). HPMs play an integral role when complex human-system designs are proposed, developed, and tested. One HPM tool termed the Man-machine Integration Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) is a NASA Ames Research Center HPM software tool that has been applied to predict human-system performance in various domains since 1986. MIDAS is a dynamic, integrated HPM and simulation environment that facilitates the design, visualization, and computational evaluation of complex man-machine system concepts in simulated operational environments. The paper will discuss a range of aviation specific applications including an approach used to model human error for NASA s Aviation Safety Program, and what-if analyses to evaluate flight deck technologies for NextGen operations. This chapter will culminate by raising two challenges for the field of predictive HPMs for complex human-system designs that evaluate assistive technologies: that of (1) model transparency and (2) model validation.

Gore, Brian F.↗

Vertical Crustal Motion Derived from Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges, and Comparisons with DORIS Measurements

A somewhat unorthodox method for determining vertical crustal motion at a tide-gauge location is to difference the sea level time series with an equivalent time series determined from satellite altimetry, To the extent that both instruments measure an identical ocean signal, the difference will be dominated by vertical land motion at the gauge. We revisit this technique by analyzing sea level signals at 28 tide gauges that are colocated with DORIS geodetic stations. Comparisons of altimeter-gauge vertical rates with DORIS rates yield a median difference of 1.8 mm/yr and a weighted root-mean-square difference of2.7 mm/yr. The latter suggests that our uncertainty estimates, which are primarily based on an assumed AR(l) noise process in all time series, underestimates the true errors. Several sources of additional error are discussed, including possible scale errors in the terrestrial reference frame to which altimeter-gauge rates are mostly insensitive, One of our stations, Male, Maldives, which has been the subject of some uninformed arguments about sea-level rise, is found to have almost no vertical motion, and thus is vulnerable to rising sea levels. Published by Elsevier Ltd. on behalf of COSPAR.

Ray, R. D.↗

Electrically Conductive Anodized Aluminum Surfaces

Anodized aluminum components can be treated to make them sufficiently electrically conductive to suppress discharges of static electricity. The treatment was conceived as a means of preventing static electric discharges on exterior satin-anodized aluminum (SAA) surfaces of spacecraft without adversely affecting the thermal-control/optical properties of the SAA and without need to apply electrically conductive paints, which eventually peel off in the harsh environment of outer space. The treatment can also be used to impart electrical conductivity to anodized housings of computers, medical electronic instruments, telephoneexchange equipment, and other terrestrial electronic equipment vulnerable to electrostatic discharge. The electrical resistivity of a typical anodized aluminum surface layer lies between 10(exp 11) and 10(exp 13) Omega-cm. To suppress electrostatic discharge, it is necessary to reduce the electrical resistivity significantly - preferably to < or = 10(exp 9) Omega-cm. The present treatment does this. The treatment is a direct electrodeposition process in which the outer anodized surface becomes covered and the pores in the surface filled with a transparent, electrically conductive metal oxide nanocomposite. Filling the pores with the nanocomposite reduces the transverse electrical resistivity and, in the original intended outer-space application, the exterior covering portion of the nanocomposite would afford the requisite electrical contact with the outer-space plasma. The electrical resistivity of the nanocomposite can be tailored to a value between 10(exp 7) and 10(exp 12) Omega-cm. Unlike electrically conductive paint, the nanocomposite becomes an integral part of the anodized aluminum substrate, without need for adhesive bonding material and without risk of subsequent peeling. The electrodeposition process is compatible with commercial anodizing production lines. At present, the electronics industry uses expensive, exotic, electrostaticdischarge- suppressing finishes: examples include silver impregnated anodized, black electroless nickel, black chrome, and black copper. In comparison with these competing finishes, the present nanocomposite finishes are expected to cost 50 to 20 percent less and to last longer.

Nguyen, Trung Hung↗

Burst Pressure Failure of Titanium Tanks Damaged by Secondary Plumes from Hypervelocity Impacts on Aluminum Shields

Metallic pressure tanks used in space missions are inherently vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts from micrometeoroids and orbital debris; thereby knowledge of impact damage and its effect on the tank integrity is crucial to a spacecraft risk assessment. This paper describes tests that have been performed to assess the effects of hypervelocity impact (HVI) damage on Titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) pressure vessels burst pressure and characteristics. The tests consisted of a pair of HVI impact tests on water-filled Ti-6Al-4V tanks (water being used as a surrogate to the actual propellant) and subsequent burst tests as well as a burst test on an undamaged control tank. The tanks were placed behind Aluminum (Al) shields and then each was impacted with a 7 km/s projectile. The resulting impact debris plumes partially penetrated the Ti-6Al-4V tank surfaces resulting in a distribution of craters. During the burst tests, the tank that failed at a lower burst pressure did appear to have the failure initiating at a crater site with observed spall cracks. A fracture mechanics analysis showed that the tanks failure at the impact location may have been due to a spall crack that formed upon impact of a fragmentation on the Titanium surface. This result was corroborated with a finite element analysis from calculated Von-Mises and hoop stresses.

Nahra, Henry↗

Comparison Modeling of System Reliability for Future NASA Projects

A National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) supported Reliability, Maintainability, and Availability (RMA) analysis team developed a unique RMA analysis methodology using cut set and importance measure analysis in order to comparison model proposed avionics computing architectures. In this paper we will present this efficient application of the RMA analysis methodology for importance measures that includes Reliability Block Diagram (RED) Analysis, Comparison modeling, Cut Set Analysis, and Importance Measure Analysis. We will also demonstrate that integrating RMA early in the system design process as a key to success by providing a fundamental decision metric supporting design selection. The RMA analysis methodology presented in this paper and applied to the avionics architectures enhances the usual way of predicting the need for redundancy based on failure rates or subject matter expert opinion. Using the REDs and the minimal cut sets, along with the Fussell-Vesely (FV) factors, importance measures are calculated for each functional element in the architectures. This paper presents an application of the FV importance measures and presents an improved methodology for using importance measures in success space (instead of failure space) to compare architectures. These importance measures are used to determine which functional element would be most likely to cause a system failure, thus, quickly identifying the path to increase the overall system reliability by either procuring more reliable functional elements or adding redundancy. This application of the RMA analysis methodology, using RBD analysis, cut set analysis, and the importance measure analysis, allows the avionics design team to better understand and compare the vulnerabilities in each of the architectures, enabling them to address the deficiencies in the design architectures more efficiently, while balancing the need to design for optimum weight and space allocations.

Gillespie, Amanda M.↗