Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Variability analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 613 records · Page 34

General Analysis of Data Collected from DOE Lidar Buoy Deployments Off Virginia and New Jersey

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinel lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies. The purpose of these buoys is to collect hub-height winds and supporting meteorological and oceanographic information to facilitate the development of offshore wind energy in the U.S. In general, each buoy is deployed for a year or more at a given location in order to capture at least a full annual cycle of weather conditions. The initial deployment for one buoy was off the coast of Virginia beginning in 2015, and the other buoy was first deployed off the coast of New Jersey beginning in 2016. Over the last two years, PNNL has had an opportunity to analyze the data collected during these first two deployments. This report describes a substantial analysis of data collected by the two lidar buoys operated off the coasts of Virginia and New Jersey. The centerpiece instrument for each buoy as deployed off Virginia and New Jersey is a lidar system, which is designed to measure the horizontal wind vector from approximately 40 m to 200 m above the sea surface with vertical resolution of 40 m. Since the initial deployments, the original lidars have been replaced with more powerful Leosphere 866 v2 systems. The analyses in this report will apply to the original Vindicator systems. In addition to the wind profiles from the lidars, the buoys collect near-surface measurements of wind speed and direction, air temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and solar irradiance. Oceanographic variables measured include the two-dimensional wave spectrum, water temperature and conductivity, and ocean current vectors to a depth of 90 m. An assessment of overall data recovery and a basic analysis of the data collected was provided in a previous report This report substantially extends that analysis. The various sections describe the development and application of an inertial measurement unit (IMU) data recovery scheme for the New Jersey deployment; a climatological analysis of winds at hub height and at the surface together with thermodynamic variables measured at the surface for the full deployment periods; an analysis of oceanographic observations describe sea state; the development of a refinement for NOAA’s WaveWatch III model to allow its application to near-shore areas; a basic climatology of ocean currents observed from the buoys; an analysis of observed winds in the framework of Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory; and the development and evaluation of techniques to extract turbulence intensity and turbulence kinetic energy from the lidars. The analyses contained in this report provide a great deal of new information about offshore conditions on the U.S. East Coast. In addition, the experience gained will inform both configurations and analysis of data from future deployments of these lidar buoy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Feature-Based PMU Event Classification under Variable PMU Participation and Overlapping Events

This paper is the basis for a presentation help at the 2026 Georgia Tech Fault & Disturbance Analysis Conference, which can be found at OSTI # 3168287 Paper Abstract—Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs) stream time synchronized, high-resolution measurements from the grid, enabling data-driven techniques for event detection and classification. Accurate event classification improves grid reliability and stability. Events can be detected by varying numbers of PMUs and exhibit different durations depending on the event type. This variability challenges standard classifiers that require uniform input sizes. Moreover, multiple events may coincide, which increases classification complexity. Standard classifiers assign each instance to the class with the highest predicted probability, whereas overlapping events may exhibit comparable probabilities across multiple classes. In this study, to handle data size variability, we extract a wide range of time–frequency domain features from all available PMUs for each event into a fixed-length vector, facilitating the application of standard machine learning classifiers, including Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, Support Vector Machine, and Multilayer Perceptron. To account for overlapping events, a probabilistic post-processing step is applied. For a given data instance, if multiple predicted class probabilities exceed 30% and the differences between them are less than 10%, the event is assigned to multiple classes. Experiments using real-world PMU data demonstrate that the Random Forest and XGBoost models achieve the highest accuracy, while the proposed post-processing method yields perfect classification performance on external unseen test sets.

Nematirad, Reza [Danovo Energy Solutions]↗

Adaptive immersed isogeometric level-set topology optimization

Here, this paper presents for the first time an adaptive immersed approach for level-set topology optimization using higher-order truncated hierarchical B-spline discretizations for design and state variable fields. Boundaries and interfaces are represented implicitly by the iso-contour of one or multiple level-set functions. An immersed finite element method, the eXtended IsoGeometric Analysis, is used to predict the physical response. The proposed optimization framework affords different adaptively refined higher-order B-spline discretizations for individual design and state variable fields. The increased continuity of higher-order B-spline discretizations together with local refinement enables direct control over the accuracy of the representation of each field while simultaneously reducing computational cost compared to uniformly refined discretizations. A flexible mesh adaptation strategy enables local refinement based on geometric measures or physics-based error indicators. These adaptive discretization and analysis approaches are integrated into gradient-based optimization schemes, evaluating the design sensitivities using the adjoint method. Numerical studies illustrate the features of the proposed framework with static, linear elastic, multi-material, two- and three-dimensional problems. The examples provide insight into the effect of refining the design variable field on the optimization result and the convergence rate of the optimization process. Using coarse higher-order B-spline discretizations for level-set fields promotes the development of smooth designs and suppresses the emergence of small features. Moreover, adaptive mesh refinement for state variable fields results in a reduction of overall computational cost. Higher-order B-spline discretizations are especially interesting when evaluating gradients of state variable fields due to their higher inter-element continuity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

REopt Lite User Manual

REopt Lite evaluates the economic viability of grid-connected solar photovoltaics, wind, combined heat and power, and electric and thermal storage at commercial and small industrial sites. It allows building owners to identify the system sizes and dispatch strategies that minimize the site’s life cycle cost of energy. REopt Lite also estimates the amount of time on-site generation and storage can sustain the site's critical load during a grid outage and allows the user the choice of optimizing for energy resilience. It is primarily used to inform project development decisions and to support research on the factors that drive project feasibility for market development and policy analysis. It is available through a web interface, application programing interface, and open-source code. This user manual provides an overview of the model, including its capabilities and typical applications; inputs and outputs; economic calculations; technology descriptions; and model parameters, variables, and equations. The model is highly flexible and is continually evolving to meet the needs of each analysis. Therefore, this report is not an exhaustive description of all capabilities, but rather a summary of the core components of the model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mechanical evaluation of WC-Co materials with varying microstructures

Tungsten carbide–cobalt materials are useful in a variety of extreme applications due to a desirable blend of properties, yet the technology has not significantly changed since their initial development in the 1920s. The mechanical properties of this class of materials is highly dependent on two variables, the size of the tungsten carbide grains, and the amount of binder phase present in the final body. In this study, the amount of binder phase is isolated across three commercial materials from the same manufacturer with three different grain sizes to investigate the effect on mechanical properties. The mechanical properties investigated are indentation hardness, flexure and tensile strength, as well as fracture toughness. In general, an increase in hardness and tensile strength with decreasing grain size was observed, while the fracture toughness showed the opposite trend with toughness increasing with increasing grain size. The flexure strength results did not show a correlation to grain size. Fractographic analysis identified the dominant strength-limiting flaw for each sample, which largely were in the form of porosity. Other flaws types, such as inclusions from the milling process, clusters of large grains, and machining cracks from the surface finishing process, were also identified. Finally, Weibull analysis was performed and deemed appropriate for analysis of these materials, but strength-size scaling was not conducted due to the variability in the strength-limiting feature between the different specimen geometries.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Impact of Demographic Lifecycle States on Time to Vehicle Purchase: Insights from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics

This study examines the impact of demographic lifecycle stages on the timing of vehicle purchases, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1999 to 2021. Survival analysis was employed to model the duration until households purchase vehicles, incorporating key lifecycle variables such as age, employment status, marital status, childbirth, home ownership, and the presence of school-going children. The life table results indicate that early adulthood (ages 20–35) is the prime period for vehicle acquisition, with significant peaks around ages 25 to 30. Additionally, the instantaneous hazard of purchasing a vehicle is highest in the late 40s and early 50s. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, employment, marital status, and home ownership significantly increase the likelihood of purchasing a vehicle, while living in multi-unit dwellings decreases it. Interaction effects reveal that married individuals with employed spouses are substantially more likely to purchase vehicles. In conclusion, this study serves as a steppingstone toward integrating demographic lifecycle analysis into car ownership modeling that better reflects real-world scenarios and increases the accuracy of policy and strategic planning.

Car ownership↗

Siting Analysis of a Solar-Nuclear-Desalination Integrated Energy System

Nuclear power is typically deployed as a baseload generator. Increased penetration of variable renewables motivates combining nuclear and renewable technologies into Integrated Energy Systems (IES) to improve dispatchability, component synergies and, through cogeneration, address multiple markets. However, combining multiple energy resources heavily depends on the proper selection of each system’s location and design limitations. In this paper, co-siting options for IES that couple nuclear and concentrating solar power (CSP) with thermal desalination are investigated. A comprehensive siting analysis is performed that utilizes global information survey data to determine possible co-siting options for nuclear and solar thermal generation in the United States. Viable co-siting options are distributed across the Southwestern U.S., with the greatest concentration of siting options in the southern Great Plains, although siting with higher solar direct normal irradiance is possible in other states such as Arizona and New Mexico. Brackish water desalination is also attractive across the southwest U.S. due to high water stress, but for brackish water desalination reverse osmosis (an electricity driven process) is most cost- and energy-efficient, which does not require co-siting with the thermal generator. The most attractive state for nuclear and thermal desalination (which is more attractive when using seawater) is Texas, although other areas may become attractive as water stress increases over the coming decades. Co-siting of all CSP and thermal desalination is challenging as attractive CSP sites are not coastal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Towards a Robust Sampling Approach: A Computational Review and Design

As pointed out in several other works, the estimation of the reliability of the electrical grid can not be conducted without the estimation of the stochastic phenomena of electicity demand and electricity production by variable renewable sources. Therefore, sampling procedures have become integral in the design of engineering structures and analysis. Commonly referred to as Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis or integration, the general objective of these procedures is to establish specifics about the uncertainty of an output characteristic of such an engineering system, given uncertainty about its input characteristics. These sampling procedures are applied in a context in which establishing such specifics cannot be performed through other means. Variance-reduction techniques are designed to lessen the variability among estimators to estimate statistics of those output uncertainties. Importance-sampling techniques, on the other hand, are designed to reduce the number of samples needed to estimate a particular statistic—e.g., a tail probability. The combination of these approaches can reduce the computational burden considerably for a particular estimator and statistic. Importance sampling—geared and designed as it is toward improving a particular estimator—suffers, unfortunately, from the unintended consequence of reducing the performance of other estimators in terms of their variance. The objective of this paper is to offer an alternative sampling procedure where this variance does not grow unacceptably large for a suite of estimators. Moreover, it is anticipated that, with additional knowledge of how an engineering output characteristic responds to its input characteristics, tuning parameters of the input’s sampling procedure can be set to improve the output characteristic’s estimation. This work proves the effectiveness of the suggested alternative approach. Such positive outcome will lead to a decrease of the computational burden of performing stochastic optimization of integrated energy systems (e.g., components dispatch, and portfolio composition). In particular, capturing the contribution to the overall system cost of rare and unlikely events and patterns of the electricity demand and production will become less computationally expensive. This is due to the fact that the approach demonstrated here will allow the sampling of those rare occurrences more frequently without misrepresenting their probabilistic impacts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data and scripts associated with “Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration”

This data package is associated with “Point-scale organic-matter decomposition in streambeds is weakly associated with reach-scale respiration” published in EGU Biogeosciences (Stegen et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3981-2026). It contains cotton strip decomposition rates (Kcd and Kdd) collected across the Yakima River Basin (YRB), Washington, USA. These data were collected to support a broader study examining the drivers of spatial variability in sediment respiration rates in the Yakima River Basin. Associated data used in analysis, metadata, and field protocols can be accessed at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1969566, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1987520. This data package is associated with the repository found at https://github.com/river-corridors-sfa/rcsfa-ST-2B-SSS-cotton-strip. A preliminary version of this data package was published in December 2025 at the time of manuscript submission. It was updated in June 2026, at the time of manuscript acceptance, to include additional metadata (this readme, data dictionary, and file level metadata). The data did not change. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of (1) readme; (2) data dictionary (dd); (3) file level metadata (flmd); and (4) four folders: (1) R-scripts; (2) figures; (3) outputs from the scripts; and (4) published data. The published data folder contains a readme directing the user to download data in order to run the R-scripts. All files are .csv, .pdf, .R, .Rmd, and .txt. We acknowledge the Yakama Nation as owners and caretakers of the lands where we collected these data. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Study on Closely Related Citrus CMMs based on Chemometrics and Prediction of Components-Targets-Diseases Network by Ingenuity Pathway Analysis

As the representatives of closely related Chinese medicinal materials (CMMs) originated from Rutaceae family, Aurantii fructus immaturus (AFI), Aurantii fructus (AF), Citri reticulatae pericarpium viride (CRPV), and Citri reticulatae pericarpium (CRP) have better functions in regulating qi and promoting gastrointestinal motility. However, differences in the quality of closely related Citrus CMMs have not yet been revealed until now. Herein, this study focused on the systematic differentiation and in-depth understanding of closely related Citrus CMMs by a strategy integrating chemometrics and network pharmacology. Determined by ultra performance liquid chromatography, the content of nine flavonoids showed obvious fluctuations in the decoction pieces from different species (Citrus aurantium Linnaeus and Citrus reticulate Blanco) with decreasing levels in the samples of ripe fruits. Decoction pieces from the different species and ripening stages were well distinguished by orthogonal projection to latent structure-discriminate analysis (OPLS-DA) and cluster analysis. As a result, four active components including narirutin, naringenin, hesperidin, and 3,5,6,7,8,3′,4′-heptemthoxyflavone were filtered out by variable importance for the projection (VIP) value (VIP > 1.0), which were regarded as chemotaxonomic markers. Furthermore, a components-targets-diseases network was constructed via ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA), and the correlations were predicted between four chemotaxonomic markers, 223 targets, and three diseases including colitis, breast cancer, and colorectal cancer. The obtained results will be of great significance for identifying closely related Citrus CMMs and conduce to improving the resource utilization of CMMs.

Mu, Qixuan↗

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Unraveling the Wrinkle in Time-Variable Sources with Lunes and Synthetic Seismic Data

In this report, we describe how to estimate the time-variable components of the seismic moment tensor and compare these estimates to the more conventional analysis that incorporates an assumption of the source time function (STF) across all components of the seismic moment tensor. The advantage of our method is that we are able to independently estimate the time-evolution of each component of the seismic moment tensor, which may help to resolve the complex source phenomena associated with buried explosions. By performing an eigen decomposition of the time-evolving seismic moment tensor components, we are able to plot the seismic mechanism as a trajectory on a lune diagram. This technique enables interpretation of the seismic mechanism as a function of time, as opposed to the more conventional analysis which assumes that the seismic mechanism is time invariant. Finally, we describe the differences between the seismic moment and the seismic moment rate STFs, how to implement each one in inversion schemes, and the relative strengths/weaknesses of each. Our key take-away is that we are able to distinguish nearly-overlapping sources with highly different mechanisms, such as an explosion immediately following an earthquake, by estimating moment rate from seismic data through a STF-invariant inversion for the full time-variable moment tensor.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis of implant loss risk factors after simultaneous guided bone regeneration: A retrospective study of 5404 dental implants

Abstract Purpose The purpose was to analyze the risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous guided bone regeneration (GBR). Materials and Methods Patients who underwent implant placement with simultaneous GBR between January 2011 and December 2018 were screened for this study. The cumulative survival rate (CSR) was calculated using the life table method. Log‐rank test and Kaplan–Meier survival estimates were used to identify potential risk factors for implant loss. The association between the investigated variables and implant loss was determined using hazard ratios (HRs) obtained from a multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results A total of 3973 patients with 5404 implants were included in this study. The CSRs of the implants at 1, 5, and 10 years were 99.6%, 98.9%, and 98.7%, respectively. Male patient (HR = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.41–6.14), periodontitis (HR = 4.26, 95% CI: 2.05–9.86), tissue‐level implants (HR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.30–6.98), narrow implants (HR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.12–6.57), and implant length ≤10 mm (HR = 2.91, 95% CI: 1.41–6.02) significantly increased the risk of implant loss ( p < 0.05). The risk of implant loss was significantly higher in the maxillary posterior region (HR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.04–4.90) than in the maxillary anterior region ( p < 0.05). Compared to Straumann, Nobel (HR = 4.07, 95% CI: 1.75–9.44) and other implant systems (HR = 14.23, 95% CI: 4.32–46.85) showed a significantly higher risk of implant loss ( p < 0.05). Conclusion Male patient, periodontitis, maxillary posterior region, Nobel implant system, other implant systems, tissue‐level implants, narrow implants, and implant length ≤10 mm were considered risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous GBR.

Shen, Xiaoting↗

TDCOSMO - XVI. Measurement of the Hubble constant from the lensed quasar WGD 2038–4008

Time-delay cosmography is a powerful technique to constrain cosmological parameters, particularly the Hubble constant (H0). The TDCOSMO Collaboration is performing an ongoing analysis of lensed quasars to constrain cosmology using this method. In this work, we obtain constraints from the lensed quasar WGD 2038−4008 using new time-delay measurements and previous mass models by TDCOSMO. This is the first TDCOSMO lens to incorporate multiple lens modeling codes and the full time-delay covariance matrix into the cosmological inference. The models are fixed before the time delay is measured, and the analysis is performed blinded with respect to the cosmological parameters to prevent unconscious experimenter bias. We obtain DΔ t = 1.68−0.38+0.40 Gpc using two families of mass models, a power-law describing the total mass distribution, and a composite model of baryons and dark matter, although the composite model is disfavored due to kinematics constraints. In a flat ΛCDM cosmology, we constrain the Hubble constant to be H0 = 65−14+23 km s−1 Mpc−1. The dominant source of uncertainty comes from the time delays, due to the low variability of the quasar. Future long-term monitoring, especially in the era of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time, could catch stronger quasar variability and further reduce the uncertainties. This system will be incorporated into an upcoming hierarchical analysis of the entire TDCOSMO sample, and improved time delays and spatially-resolved stellar kinematics could strengthen the constraints from this system in the future.Key words: gravitational lensing: strong / cosmological parameters / distance scale⋆ Corresponding author; kcwong19@gmail.com.⋆⋆ NHFP Einstein fellow.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗