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At least 613 records · Page 34

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

Chini, Louise (ORCID:0000000290703505)↗

Assessment of Impurities in Neptunium Metal Using Double-Focusing SF-ICP-MS

In the transmutation process, minor actinides such as neptunium, americium and curium obtained from spent nuclear fuel are incorporated into new fuel that can be placed into a fast reactor, where these elements fission into products with shorter half-lives which reduces the health and safety hazards. In order to better understand the all the involved processes, fundamental physical properties of actinides should be investigated, and for that reason, high-purity materials need to be produced. One of the main challenges in characterizing these materials is the lack of pure metal available for study, and lack of analytical methods to determine the purity. Trans-uranic elements are challenging to study because of the need to be handled in specialized facilities, safeguards concerns and they are not easily purchased and/or produced. High-purity Np metal is being produced at the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) of Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in a process of direct oxide reduction developed by Squires and Lessing, with a target purity of 99.999%. The goal of this research is to develop methods to determine the impurities in the Np metal, with detection limits low enough to achieve this purity level. In this work, we have used several ICP-MS and ICP OES techniques, but the focus was the method development using a recently acquired Double-Focusing Sector Field Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (SF-ICP-MS). To produce the Np metal, approximately 20 g of the neptunium oxide powder was calcined at 800 oC for 6 h in a magnesium oxide crucible, which is placed inside a stainless steel crucible, that goes into the Hot Uniaxial Press (HUP) furnace insert. After the calcining step, the Np oxide was mixed with approximately 9 g of calcium metal and 100 g of ultra-dry calcium chloride. The HUP furnace was heated in a ramp rate of 50 oC min -1 up to 1000 oC. When the reaction mixture reached 850 oC, a tantalum stirrer was activated at 100 rpm. After the tantalum stirrer was removed and the mixture cooled overnight, the MgO crucible was opened with a hammer and chisel to retrieve the Np metal button at the bottom of the reaction mixture. Prior to the dissolution process, the surface contaminants of the sample were removed. The Np button was washed in 10 mL of ultra-pure water for 1 min, with a faint reaction observed on the surface, indicating the presence of Ca metal. The water-washed sample was placed in a tube with 2 M HCl for only 3 s, as a vigorous reaction in the button surface was observed. The leachates were saved for further analysis. The sample was then rinsed with ultra-pure water and air-dried prior to dissolution. The cleaned sample was placed in a PTFE beaker and 25 mL of 6 M HCl and 150 µL of 24 M HF were added. After 10 minutes of reaction, the beaker was placed on a hot plate for 1 h and 30 min, followed by the addition of 1 mL of 16 M HNO3 and allowed to react for a further 1 h and 20 min. The sample was removed from heat and 10 mL of HNO3 16 M was added to react with the HCl. The beaker was covered and left for overnight reaction, producing a solution with approximately 20 mL of final volume. A Quadrupole Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (Q-ICP-MS, Perkin Elmer ELAN DRC II Q-ICP-MS) was used to obtain qualitative mass spectra for the dissolution blank, each of the leachates and the dissolved sample. In the water leachate spectrum mainly Ca and Mg were observed, while the acid wash had a similar peak pattern to the one observed for the Np metal sample, indicating that the process not only removed surface contamination, but also reacted with the sample itself. In the Np material spectrum, Ta and actinides were identified as candidates for major contaminants, as the most intense peaks corresponded to the mass-to-charge ratios of these elements. Minor contaminants included Al, Au, Ca, Cr, Fe, I, Na, Nb, Pb, Sn, Ti, Tl, V, Y. The presence of impurities in the material could have originated from several sources, such as the materials used for the casting process, the use of impure NpO2 or contamination of reagents and materials used for the analysis. Some of the isotopes listed as potential contaminants are susceptible to spectral interferences, so Double-Focusing SF-ICP-MS (Nu Instruments Attom ES HR-ICP-MS) was used for the quantitative analysis. For each isotope determined, several items were evaluated: raw signal of a blank solution, sensitivity and determination coefficient of calibration curves, possibility of interferences and comparison of results obtained for at least two resolving powers (RP): 300 and 4000. The evaluation of the signal in a blank solution can indicate if a spectral interference from the plasma gas and/or the solvent was successfully resolved (commonly observed for 52Cr+/40Ar12C+, for example). It is important to highlight that a signal reduction is expected when a higher RP is used, as the ion beam transmission is decreased by the use of narrower slits

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Using Cosmic Ray Muons to Assess Geological Characteristics in the Subsurface

Cosmic rays are energetic nuclei and elementary particles that originate from stars and intergalactic events. The interaction of these particles with the upper atmosphere produces a wide range of secondary particles that reach the surface of the earth, of which muons are the most prominent. With enough energy, muons can travel up to a few kilometers beneath the surface of the earth before being stopped completely. The terrestrial muon flux profile and associated zenith angle can be utilized to determine geological characteristics of a location (e.g., rock overburden and density) without having to use conventional methods such as boreholes. This work uses a low-power plastic scintillator-based muon detection system as a prototype for this non-destructive geological assay methodology. Four custom designed 102 cm x 51 cm x 5 cm plastic scintillation panels are used to realize two orthogonal detection planes. Optical photons from each scintillation panel are read using OnSemi J-Series 4x4 silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) arrays in conjunction with preamplifiers. Simultaneous triggers between detectors from two planes indicate a coincidence event which is recorded using the QuarkNet data acquisition system (DAQ) from Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A custom detector holder was designed to securely mount the detection system and rotate the panels along the zenith to collect data at variable angles. In order to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with the detector, such as energy depositions and angular resolution of the detector design, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using Geant4 is being developed. Cosmic ray flux prediction will be included in the project by adding the CORSIKA MC code to the simulation toolchain. Simulated and experimental data will drive the development and validation of a reconstruction algorithm that, upon completion, is expected to predict average overburden and rock density. Extended detector exposure to muons can be used as a means to understand changes in the surrounding environment like rock porosity. On the experimental front, muons will initially be measured at the surface, establishing the baseline flux. This is followed by recording the muon flux at variable depths and zenith angles, where the data will be used by the reconstruction algorithm to predict the overburden. The result will be benchmarked against geological surveys. The measured flux data will also be used to benchmark independent and established models. Successful proof-of-concept demonstration of this technology can open doors for long term non-invasive geological monitoring. The detector design, experimental methodology, and the benchmarking efforts are detailed in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Correlating and Simulating Socio-Demographically Driven Residential End-Use Activity Schedules

Incorporating socio-demographic and behavioral considerations into decision-support tools is crucial for identifying gaps and addressing consumer needs to ensure reliable and affordable energy solutions. In energy simulation models, the correlation between socio-demographics and time-use behavior is not well-captured. Thus, we developed a large-scale simulation workflow to generate schedules for 10 residential activities across 24 population segments defined by age, income, and employment status. Using pre-pandemic 2015-2019 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data, we used ANOVA to confirm the correlation between demographic factors and time use. We explored three k-modes clustering methods-backward, forward, and a new hybrid approach-to delineate the occupancy patterns based on demographics. Using the probability of cluster membership for each population segment and a time inhomogeneous Markov chain to generate activity transition probabilities for each cluster, we simulated 50,000 schedules per segment and validated them against the ATUS data. The hybrid method produced the most socio-demographically differentiated clusters while demonstrating comparable performance to other approaches, with an overall root mean square error of 0.12 for both weekday and weekend schedules. Thus, the hybrid method, where each cluster is dominated by certain demographic segments and occupancy patterns, offers more modeling versatility in terms of scenario analysis. The new workflow improves the socio demographic differentiation of energy consumption by considering differences in time use. This approach enables future research on demographically segmented time of use (TOU) energy consumption, including impacts of TOU utility bills and rate analysis, long-run marginal emissions, and energy retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Task 12 PV Sustainability - Mineral Resource Use Footprints of Residential PV Systems

Resource use intensity is often mentioned as one of the main characteristics of PV systems and PV electricity. Recently, the International Energy Agency published a report on the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions. The Product Environmental Footprint pilot study on PV electricity quantified (among other environmental impacts) its abiotic depletion potential. So far, a comprehensive assessment of resource use impacts highlighting the different facets of its impacts is however lacking. For the first time, the resource use impacts of PV electricity are quantified simultaneously with four impact category indicators recommended or suggested by the Life Cycle Initiative hosted at UN Environment. The indicators cover distinctly different aspects of resource use, namely resource depletion with the Abiotic Depletion Potential, ultimate reserves (ADP UR ), economic resource scarcity with the Abiotic Depletion Potential, economic reserves (ADP ER ), resource quality with the Surplus Ore Potential, Ultimate Recoverable Resources (SOP URR ) and re-source criticality with the ESSENZ method. The resource use impacts caused from the generation of 1 kWh electricity with a residential scale photovoltaic (PV) system installed in Central Europe using mono- and multi-crystalline silicon panels and CdTe panels, respectively are quantified. The product system includes manufacture, use and end of life treatment (take back and recycling) of the PV panels, cabling, inverter and supporting structure, the supply chains of the raw materials and energy used in PV panel and inverter manufacture as well as transport logistics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Genetic Architecture of Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.)

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has immense potential as a bioenergy crop with the aim of producing biofuel as an end goal. Nitrogen (N)-related sustainability traits, such as nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen remobilization efficiency (NRE), are important factors affecting switchgrass quality and productivity. Hence, it is imperative to develop nitrogen use-efficient switchgrass accessions by exploring the genetic basis of NUE in switchgrass. For that, we used 331 diverse field-grown switchgrass accessions planted under low and moderate N fertility treatments. We performed a genome wide association study (GWAS) in a holistic manner where we not only considered NUE as a single trait but also used its related phenotypic traits, such as total dry biomass at low N and moderate N, and nitrogen use index, such as NRE. We have evaluated the phenotypic characterization of the NUE and the related traits, highlighted their relationship using correlation analysis, and identified the top ten nitrogen use-efficient switchgrass accessions. Our GWAS analysis identified 19 unique single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 32 candidate genes. Two promising GWAS candidate genes, caffeoyl-CoA O-methyltransferase (CCoAOMT) and <alfin-like 6(AL6), were further supported by linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis. Finally, we discussed the potential role of nitrogen in modulating the expression of these two genes. Our findings have opened avenues for the development of improved nitrogen use-efficient switchgrass lines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables

The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transmitted. Specifically, structural break and causal analyses of U.S. corn supply, uses, trade, and price are performed using quarterly data for marketing years 1986 to 2017. The structural break analysis identifies three breaks in corn use for ethanol that reflect the policy-driven evolution of U.S. corn ethanol production and other market factors. The causality analysis finds that U.S. corn use for ethanol is not a driver of the corn price and net corn exports. Changes in corn supply and domestic corn use are found to be the key factors in accommodating the large increase in corn use for ethanol between 2003 and 2010. These results mean that common assumptions linking U.S. corn ethanol production to large reductions in corn availability and exports, and higher global corn prices merit reconsideration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Evaluating Image Classification Deep Convolutional Neural Network Architectures for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Turbofan Engines

Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) is a key component of condition-based maintenance (CBM) and prognosis and health management (PHM). Data-based models for the estimation of RUL are of particular interest because expert knowledge of systems is not always available, and physical modeling is often not feasible. Additionally, using data-based models, which make decisions based on raw sensor data, allow features to be learned instead of manually determined. In this work, deep convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures are investigated for their ability to estimate the RUL of turbofan engines. To improve the accuracy of the models, CNN architectures, which have proven successful in image classification, are implemented and tested. Specifically, the blocks used in the Visual Geometry Group (VGG) architecture, inception modules used in the GoogLeNet architecture, and residual blocks used in the ResNet architecture are incorporated. To account for varying flight lengths, the input to the models is a window of time series data collected from the engine under test. Window locations at the climb, cruise, and descent stages are considered. To further improve the RUL estimations, multiple overlapping windows at each location are used. This increases the amount of training data available and is found to increase the accuracy of the resulting RUL estimations by averaging the estimates from all overlapping segments. The model is trained and tested using the new Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (N-CMAPSS) data set, and high prognosis accuracy was achieved. Furthermore, this work expands on the model developed and used in the 2021 PHM Society Data Challenge, which received second place.

convolutional neural networks↗

Land cover and space use influence coyote carnivory: evidence from stable-isotope analysis

For many species, the relationship between space use and diet composition is complex, with individuals adopting varying space use strategies such as territoriality to facilitate resource acquisition. Coyotes ( Canis latrans ) exhibit two disparate types of space use; defending mutually exclusive territories (residents) or moving nomadically across landscapes (transients). Resident coyotes have increased access to familiar food resources, thus improved foraging opportunities to compensate for the energetic costs of defending territories. Conversely, transients do not defend territories and are able to redirect energetic costs of territorial defense towards extensive movements in search of mates and breeding opportunities. These differences in space use attributed to different behavioral strategies likely influence foraging and ultimately diet composition, but these relationships have not been well studied. We investigated diet composition of resident and transient coyotes in the southeastern United States by pairing individual space use patterns with analysis of stable carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotope values to assess diet. During 2016–2017, we monitored 41 coyotes (26 residents, 15 transients) with GPS radio-collars along the Savannah River area in the southeastern United States. We observed a canopy effect on δ 13 C values and little anthropogenic food in coyote diets, suggesting 13 C enrichment is likely more influenced by reduced canopy cover than consumption of human foods. We also observed other land cover effects, such as agricultural cover and road density, on δ 15 N values as well as reduced space used by coyotes, suggesting that cover types and localized, resident-like space use can influence the degree of carnivory in coyotes. Finally, diets and niche space did not differ between resident and transient coyotes despite differences observed in the proportional contribution of potential food sources to their diets. Although our stable isotope mixing models detected differences between the diets of resident and transient coyotes, both relied mostly on mammalian prey (52.8%, SD = 15.9 for residents, 42.0%, SD = 15.6 for transients). Resident coyotes consumed more game birds (21.3%, SD = 11.6 vs 13.7%, SD = 8.8) and less fruit (10.5%, SD = 6.9 vs 21.3%, SD = 10.7) and insects (7.2%, SD = 4.7 vs 14.3%, SD = 8.5) than did transients. Our findings indicate that coyote populations fall on a feeding continuum of omnivory to carnivory in which variability in feeding strategies is influenced by land cover characteristics and space use behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Contrasting effects of land-use and local disturbance on plant and pollinator communities in wetlands

While pollinators and wetlands both provide important ecosystem services (e.g., the pollination of flowering plants and improving water quality), the relationship between the two is not well understood. Both biotic and abiotic effects can mediate the local wetland flower and pollinator community. In this study, we investigated how land use, including a land use gradient at five different radii, from 250 m to 2 km, along with anthropogenic disturbance affected pollinators in wetland ecosystems. We surveyed the abundance and diversity of plant-pollinator communities in fifteen different wetlands across two years. We also tested the relationship between water quality and temperature, and the abundance and diversity of flowering plants and pollinating insects. Our results suggest that increasing temperature, which was strongly associated with developed land use, had a negative effect on the floral display of wetland plants, as well as the abundance of all flower visitors and hover flies. Hover fly abundance was also positively associated with agricultural land use and total nitrogen in the water. Meanwhile, the abundance of female bees was affected by an interaction between temperature and disturbance: female bees were most abundant when temperatures were lower in areas of low disturbance. In contrast, pollinator species richness increased with temperature when developed land use was low, and floral diversity was strongly affected by several interactions between disturbance, land use, and water quality. Finally, the community composition of both plants and insects varied significantly among low, medium, and high disturbance categories, with weedier, non-native species being significantly associated with areas of higher disturbance and in sites with greater anthropogenic land use. We demonstrate that ecological communities shift significantly in response to anthropogenic change. Our work also illustrates the importance of quantifying interactions between land use and local disturbance with abiotic factors such as temperature and water quality on ecological systems.

Disturbance↗

An economic and technical feasibility analysis of a dual-source heat pump using both the air and the ground

The study investigates the economic and technical performance of a novel dual-source heat pump (DSHP) compared with that of air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs). The DSHP can use both ambient air and the ground as a heat source or heat sink. It uses ambient air when its temperature is favorable for efficient heat pump operation. When the ambient temperature is too hot or cold, the ground source is used to retain high-efficiency heat pump operation. Since the DSHP can alternately use either the ground heat exchanger (GHE) or ambient air to meet the thermal load, the required size of GHE can be smaller than those of GSHPs. This study models the DSHP using a whole building energy simulation tool (EnergyPlus) coupled with a Python plug-in and Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM) to simulate its heating and cooling performance for a typical single-family home in 15 US climate zones. The required GHE size of the DSHP system is determined through simulations and compared with that of GSHPs. DSHP deployment can reduce electricity use compared to ASHPs, especially in cold climates where it shows a reduction of around 50%. When compared to GSHPs, DSHPs use 20%–40% more electricity in warm climates but consume around the same amount in moderate and colder climates. Since the DSHP can use air source when the ambient temperature is mild, the GHE size needed for the DSHP is about 40% less than that needed for GSHPs in hot climates and about 25% less in cold climates. In conclusion, the life cycle cost analysis shows that the DSHP is economically more feasible than ASHPs in colder regions and economically more feasible than GSHPs in hot and cold regions.

Dual-source heat pumps↗

Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US

The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Occupant-driven end use load models for demand response and flexibility service participation of residential grid-interactive buildings

As demand response becomes increasingly used as a tool to support improved grid flexibility, it is important to consider that there are many potential types of energy end uses that may be used to support such flexibility. Residential appliances, often accounting for 30 % or more of residential energy use, are a currently untapped source of demand flexibility, particularly when aggregated together across homes. To date there has been very limited analysis of residential appliances for use as grid-interactive loads. As such, this research uses disaggregated energy end use data for 564 households, to model the electricity demand flexibility potential of the use of residential dishwashers, clothes washers, clothes dryers, ovens, and ranges (oven + stovetop) on both weekdays and weekends. This includes both at the building level, as well as aggregated to the grid level, specifically the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. This study was divided into two parts. Part 1 focuses on determining appliance-level loads, and Part 2, which involves aggregation to the grid. Findings suggest that among the studied appliances, clothes dryers provide the greatest demand reduction potential for most times of the day, followed by dishwashers and clothes washers. The maximum potential reduction for clothes dryers is found to be approximately at 11:00 a.m. and this potential sustains throughout most of the daytime period. When considering the willingness of households to participate, based on a survey of households in the Midwest region, clothes dryers still have the most potential for demand reduction. The availability of appliances for load modulation on weekdays and weekends indicates similar load reduction potential for all appliances. Overall, the results of this study suggest that there is an opportunity for shifting appliance usage to optimize grid efficiency and enhance demand response strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Modernizing the active neutron collar poison rod correction using simulations to enhance PWR fresh fuel verification

The declared inventory of 235 U in fresh, low enriched uranium, nuclear fuel assemblies is routinely verified by nuclear safeguards inspectorates using the UNCL (Uranium Neutron Collar – Light Water Reactor Fuel) nondestructive assay instrument. The trend in modern fuels is towards higher initial enrichment, which in turn requires a larger number of burnable poison pins with higher Gadolinia concentration to hold down the initial reactivity. UNCL assay error for modern fuel assemblies typically exceeds 10%. The traditional algorithm used to correct the response for burnable poison content needs revision to achieve accuracy comparable to the $\sigma_\text{R}$ of 4.5% expected for poison-free assemblies. Here we review the problem and use a large set of 287 Monte Carlo simulations based on an experimentally benchmarked model corresponding to the 16×16 PWR array used in Brazilian Angra type II and III fuel. Simulated relative responses are used to evaluate the functional form of the poison correction and determine parameters optimal for 16×16 PWR assemblies. This update is conducted using between 4–24 Gadolinia pins ranging 2–11 wt% Gd 2 O 3 with assemblies having mean enrichments ranging 2.5%–5%. Experimental validation of the updated coefficients using seven measurements shows bias is reduced by an order of magnitude and $\sigma_\text{R}$R reduced from 10% to less than 2%. Two updated sets of coefficients are provided, the most accurate of which is directly useable in the existing analysis code (INCC) in use by inspectorate at fuel fabrication facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Net Present Value Optimization of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Plant with CO 2 Capture using a Water-Lean Solvent Considering Transient Electricity Price for Multiple Regions

Global CO 2 emissions are increasing at about a 1.5% rate per year. Fossil fuel-based plants are one of the main contributors to this rise. In the power generation industry, fossil fuel plants are dominant, and many plants are under development. In this study, a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant with postcombustion capture using a leading water-lean solvent is considered. For optimal design and operating schedule, large-scale dynamic optimization is undertaken for net present value (NPV) optimization. The first principle dynamic model of NGCC is developed, including a model of the highly efficient H-class gas turbines. For computational tractability of the dynamic optimization problem, a reduced-order model is developed by using the Hankel singular value decomposition. A waterlean solvent, N-(2-ethoxyethyl)-3-morpholinopropan-1-amine, is used for carbon capture. A model of the capture system is developed in Aspen Plus, which is used to develop a reduced-order model by using ALAMO, a machine learning software. In addition, a reduced model of the CO 2 compression system with a dehydration unit is also considered. The integrated system is used for NPV optimization by using the Python-based PYOMO platform. The PCC process is analyzed for three configurations-conventional packed bed, rotating packed bed (RPB), and a combination of RPB and direct contact cooler. The NPV optimization is performed for 14 regional markets by considering year-long clustered and continuous locational marginal price data with a 1 h interval. Optimization results show that the PCC can achieve 90% CO 2 capture with a positive NPV for six regions. Sensitivity studies conducted by using the PCC configurations indicate that the process is economically feasible for 9 regions out of 14 regional electricity markets with NPV values in the range of 33−540 $MM.

cabon capture↗

Persistence and Plasticity in Conifer Water–Use Strategies

The selective use of seasonal precipitation by vegetation is critical to understanding the residence time and flow path of water in watersheds, yet there are limited datasets to test how climate alters these dynamics. Here, we use measurements of the seasonal cycle of tree ring δ 18 O for two widespread conifer species in the Rocky Mountains of North America to provide a multi-decadal depiction of the seasonal origins of forest water use. The results show that while the conifer tree stands had a dominant preference for use of snowmelt, there were multi-annual periods over the last four decades when use of summer precipitation was preferential. Utilization of summer rain emerged during years with increased snowfall and tree growth, suggesting that summer rain enhanced the transpiration stream only during the periods of highest water use. We hypothesize this could be explained through shallowing of the root profile during wetter periods and/or through the influence of changing water table depths on the residence time of summer precipitation in the root zone. We suggest the tree ring proxy approach used here could be applied in other watersheds to provide critical insight into the temporal dynamics of plant water use that could not be inferred from short measurement campaigns. Furthermore, these data on the seasonal origins of forest water are critical for understanding forest vulnerability to drought, the processes that affect precipitation pathways and residence time in watersheds and the interpretation of tree ring proxy data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the structure and composition of recalcitrant oligosaccharides in hydrolysate using high-throughput biotin-based glycome profiling and mass spectrometry

Novel Immunological and Mass Spectrometry Methods for Comprehensive Analysis of Recalcitrant Oligosaccharides in AFEX Pretreated Corn Stover. Lignocellulosic biomass is a sustainable alternative to fossil fuel and is extensively used for developing bio-based technologies to produce products such as food, feed, fuel, and chemicals. The key to these technologies is to develop cost competitive processes to convert complex carbohydrates present in plant cell wall to simple sugars such as glucose, xylose, and arabinose. Since lignocellulosic biomass is highly recalcitrant, it must undergo a combination of thermochemical treatment such as Ammonia Fiber Expansion (AFEX), dilute acid (DA), Ionic Liquid (IL) and biological treatment such as enzyme hydrolysis and microbial fermentation to produce desired products. However, when using commercial fungal enzymes during hydrolysis, only 75–85% of the soluble sugars generated are monomeric sugars, while the remaining 15–25% are soluble recalcitrant oligosaccharides that cannot be easily utilized by microorganisms. Previously, we successfully separated and purified the soluble recalcitrant oligosaccharides using a combination of charcoal and celite-based separation followed by size exclusion chromatography and studies their inhibitory properties on enzymes. We discovered that the oligosaccharides with higher degree of polymerization (DP) containing methylated uronic acid substitutions were more recalcitrant towards commercial enzyme mixtures than lower DP and neutral oligosaccharides. Here, we report the use of several complementary techniques that include glycome profiling using plant biomass glycan specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) to characterize sugar linkages in plant cell walls and enzymatic hydrolysate, matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS) using structurally-informative diagnostic peaks offered by negative ion post-secondary decay spectra, gas chromatography followed by mass spectrometry (GC–MS) to characterize oligosaccharide sugar linkages with and without derivatization. Since oligosaccharides (DP 4–20) are small, it is challenging to mobilize these molecules for mAbs binding and characterization. To overcome this problem, we have applied a new biotin-coupling based oligosaccharide immobilization method that successfully tagged most of the low DP soluble oligosaccharides on to a micro-plate surface followed by specific linkage analysis using mAbs in a high-throughput system. This new approach will help develop more advanced versions of future high throughput glycome profiling methods that can be used to separate and characterize oligosaccharides present in biomarkers for diagnostic applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗