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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (Final Report)

This document presents final technical findings for the project Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (FE0031782). The project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy Oil and Gas Program to develop and advance technologies that can significantly improve the recovery efficiencies of unconventional oil and gas resources. The overall objective of this project is to improve the ultimate recovery from unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resources in the United States by developing a method for using unrefined natural gas liquids (NGLs) as treatment fluids to improve hydrocarbon production. Horizontal extended-lateral drilling coupled with high volume hydraulic fracturing has significantly increased production from UOG resources in the U.S. However, the recovery efficiency is low compared to the estimated oil and gas in place. Recent data indicate that less than 10% of the oil in the liquid-rich UOG reservoirs is produced. Alternative completion methods using NGLs could increase production (Battelle, 2016; Wan et al., 2013; Wan, 2013; Downey et al, 2021); however, field validation tests are needed to develop an approach that is economical, efficient, and compatible in the UOG setting to advance towards commercial deployment. This project aims to develop and field test a method to improve recovery of oil resources in UOG shale plays by using Y-Grade NGLs, or a similar combination of NGLs, as treatment fluids. Refined NGLs have been used as a hydraulic treatment fluid in UOG plays for decades and are shown to be particularly effective because their miscibility with oil allows oil to flow more freely; however, the use of Y-Grade (unrefined) NGLs has not been studied. The use of Y-Grade NGLs would be advantageous over refined NGLs because Y-Grade NGLs do not require infrastructure or investment in refining and are already being produced from many UOG reservoirs. The concept was tested and monitored in the field at a commercial well site owned by project partner Hopco, Ltd. The project team, which consists of multiple oil and gas operators, Linde Gas North America LLC (Linde) and the Ohio Division of Geological Survey (ODGS), has extensive experience with oil and gas production in the Appalachian basin and the ability to work together quickly to solve technical issues and research needs. A key part of the proposed work was the use of existing wells for field testing and monitoring. A total of four wells (three vertical and one horizontal) were available for this project. One of the vertical wells was utilized as the test well for the NGL treatment test. A nearby vertical well was used for microseismic monitoring. The remaining vertical well and the horizontal well provided a baseline for typical UOG production in the oil window of the Utica/Point Pleasant (UPP). Major technical tasks of the project include characterization of the geotechnical properties of the UPP with an emphasis on the field site; design and planning for the NGLs testing; field testing and monitoring; analysis and integration of field data; and economic and resource/reserve assessment. The Shoman monitoring well and Doughty NGL treatment well were successfully plugged back during September-October 2020 in preparation for treatment and monitoring. A nitrogen diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) was completed on the Doughty well on July 22, 2021, consisting of 133,000 scf (91 Bbl.) of nitrogen. A nitrogen foam frac was completed in the Utica-Point Pleasant interval on August 17, 2021 with funding from outside sources. A microseismic monitoring array was installed in the Shoman well and monitored microseismic activity during the Doughty well frac job. Y-Grade NGL injection commenced on August 26, 2021. A total of 215 Bbl. was injected but the job was shut down due to a small leak on the suction hose on the pump truck. The Y-Grade treatment resumed on August 27, 2021 and an additional 726 Bbl. of Y-Grade NGL was injected at a well head pressure of 3850 psi. Total volume of injected Y-Grade over the two days of injection was 941 Bbl. The well was shut-in for 17 days following injection to allow the Y-Grade NGLs to soak on the formation. Y-Grade treatment flow back commenced on 9/13/2021 on a weekly basis. Production data, including surface pressures, oil, nitrogen, natural gas, and flow times was measured and recorded. Periodic gas samples were collected and analyzed to determine composition of flowback gas. As of July 2022, the treatment well had produced 726 Bbl of oil and 2,888 mcf gas. In August 2022, tubing and packer in the well were removed and a pump was installed to enhance oil recovery. Currently, the operator is producing the well about 2 days a week for a few hours. The performance of the NGL treatment test was evaluated based on reservoir simulations of the treatment process, processing of well testing data, analysis of micro seismic monitoring data, and production data analysis. This analysis suggested that oil production in the small test would continue through 2025. Upscaling the treatment to a horizontal Utica Point-Pleasant well would allow more oil recovery, but the process would involve more investment, services, and operational support. An economic analysis was conducted for scenarios aimed at upscaling the NGL treatment process for more typical horizontal UPP wells in the Appalachian Basin.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Variable Refrigerant Flow with Heat Recovery and Dedicated Outdoor Air System

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on a single heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) end-use savings shape measure - a variable refrigerant flow with heat recovery (VRF HR) heating and cooling system coupled with a dedicated outdoor air system (DOAS) for ventilation. This measure replaces existing multi-zone variable air volume (VAV) systems or single-zone rooftop units (RTU) with a VRF HR system coupled with a DOAS that includes an energy/heat recovery ventilator (E/HRV). The measure covers 53% of exisiting building stock's floor area and is not applicable to HVAC system types using district heating or cooling or buildings/spaces that include high-ventilation spaces such as kitchens where the amount of exhaust air is large. A DOAS with E/HRV is used to provide required outdoor ventilation air to spaces since ventilation air is generally not supplied by a VRF HR system. An exhaust air energy recovery ventilator (ERV ) with sensible and latent heat exchange is added to humid climate zones while a heat recovery ventilator (HRV ) with sensible only exchange is added to drier climate zones. The ERV is modeled as a fixed membrane plate counterflow heat exchanger, while the HRV is modeled as a sensible-only fixed aluminum plate counterflow heat exchanger. Both systems include a bypass (for temperature control and economizer lockout) and minimum exhaust temperature control for frost prevention.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance Testing of a Moving-Bed Gasifier Using Coal, Biomass, and Waste Plastic Blends with Washed and Unwashed Legacy Coals and Other Waste Fuels to Generate White Hydrogen

The objective of this effort, primarily funded by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), and led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Hamilton Maurer International (HMI) and Sotacarbo S.p.A. (Sotacarbo), has been to qualify coal, biomass, and plastic waste blends based on performance testing of selected fuel pellet compositions in a pilot-scale updraft moving-bed (UDMB) gasifier. The testing provided relevant data to advance the commercial-scale design of the moving-bed gasifier to be able to successfully use these feedstocks to produce hydrogen. In particular, the effects of waste plastics on feedstock development (i.e., blending and pelletizing) and the resulting products (i.e., syngas compositions, organic condensate production, and ash characteristics) are the focus. The gasifier used for testing is HMI’s moving-bed gasifier, which has been proven capable of gasifying nearly all coal ranks. It has also shown the ability in prior testing work to gasify wood chips (biomass). However, mixtures of these fuels with plastic wastes have not been prepared and gasified together. The three feedstocks were densified and pelletized by California Pellet Mill (CPM) to meet the feedstock size required by Sotacarbo’s 30mm ID UDMB gasifier, under contract to HMI. The technical tasks and results from this two-year research project included: (1) Feed Procurement and Preparation: Nine different tri-fuel pellets were prepared from varying compositions of fresh mined PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and car fluff waste plastics. Tri-fuel pellets were produced by CPM and shipped to Sotacarbo’s test facility in Carbonia, Sardinia, Italy. (2) Test Plan Development: A test plan was created to define the test runs to be performed. The test plan detailed the different UDMB gasification tests to be performed in Sotacarbo’s 12-inch ID pilot scale gasifier, the process monitoring instrumentation used, and the extractive samples recovered for analysis of the total gasification process mass and energy balance. (3) Gasifier Testing: Nine different gasification runs were performed in the pilot-scale gasifier at Sotacarbo using nine different fuel feedstock compositions generated from varying mixtures of PRB coal, biomass, and plastic wastes. The testing generated performance data on gasification reaction efficiency and performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design. This task also included work to refurbish and reassemble the pilot gasifier at Sotacarbo and perform a baseline 100% PRB coal run. (4) Data Analysis and Reporting: Review of the data, determination of figures of merit, and interpretation of the results are reported in the project’s final report, published in March 2024. The results show that all tri-fuel pellets gasified well and maintained structural integrity throughout the gasification process. The syngas generated can be shifted to hydrogen by using commercial syngas shifting technologies. (5) High Fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) Simulation: The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) team performed CFD simulations of the UDMB gasifier for two of the tri-fuel pellets gasified in Sotacarbo’s pilot scale gasifier. The kinetic mechanisms for the pyrolysis of each constituent, PRB coal, corn stover biomass, and waste plastics are based on thermogravimetric analysis performed by Sotacarbo. The gasification model was validated by comparing the predicted syngas composition at the exit of the gasifier with the measured syngas composition. In addition, the reactor’s measured internal temperature profile agreed well with the predicted internal reactor temperature profile. These results validate that the model can be used to predict the performance of the updraft moving bed gasifier for different feedstocks and operating conditions. This paper summarizes the results of the completed work in which the pelletizing procedure was validated to ensure the viability of the tri-fuel pellets for the gasification runs performed at Sotacarbo’s 30 mm UDMB gasifier. The gasification performance data from this series of nine runs will enable modeling of a full-scale HMI industrial scale gasifier supporting both combined heat and power, and Hydrogen production from coal (both fresh mined and legacy) combined with various biomass and waste plastics. Additionally, plans and progress on a follow-up project, being executed by the same project team, will be presented. In this project, a total of twenty (20) different feedstocks are being prepared from varying compositions of biomass (both woody biomass and corn stover) with a mixture of legacy coal waste, plastic waste, and refuse-derived fuel (RDF). The testing will provide information on gasification reaction efficiency/performance, yielding relevant data for models used to scale up the gasifier design to 50 megawatt electric (MWe) (equivalent hydrogen production). Tests will also be performed on a bench-scale fluidized-bed gasifier for comparison purposes. The results of this testing will be used to specify the range of feedstock blends that can be successfully gasified as well as quantify gasifier outputs based on specific blends.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment and Non-Destructive Evaluation of the Influence of Residual Solvent on a Two-Part Epoxy-Based Adhesive Using Ultrasonics

Polymers are increasingly being used in higher demanding applications due to their ability to tailor the properties of structures while allowing for a weight and cost reduction. Solvents play an important role in the manufacture of polymeric structures since they allow for a reduction in the polymer’s viscosity or assist with the dispersion of fillers into the polymer matrix. However, the incorrect removal of the solvent affects both the physical and chemical properties of polymeric materials. The presence of residual solvent can also negatively affect the curing kinetics and the final quality of polymers. Destructive testing is mainly performed to characterize the properties of these materials. However, this type of testing involves using lab-type equipment that cannot be taken in-field to perform in situ testing and requires a specific sample preparation. Here, a method is presented to non-destructively evaluate the curing process and final viscoelastic properties of polymeric materials using ultrasonics. In this study, changes in longitudinal sound speed were detected during the curing of an aerospace epoxy adhesive as a result of variations in polymer chemistry. To simulate the presence of residual solvent, samples containing different weight percentages of isopropyl alcohol were manufactured and tested using ultrasonics. Thermogravimetric analysis was used to show changes in the decomposition of the adhesive due to the presence of IPA within the polymer structure. Adding 2, 4, and 6 wt.% of IPA decreased the adhesive’s lap shear strength by 40, 58, and 71%, respectively. Ultrasonics were used to show how the solvent influenced the curing process and the final sound speed of the adhesive. Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio were determined using both the longitudinal and shear sound speeds of the adhesive. Using ultrasonics has the potential to non-invasively characterize the quality of polymers in both an in-field and manufacturing settings, ensuring their reliability during use in demanding applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reviews and syntheses: Opportunities for robust use of peak intensities from high-resolution mass spectrometry in organic matter studies

Abstract. Earth's biogeochemical cycles are intimately tied to the biotic and abiotic processing of organic matter (OM). Spatial and temporal variations in OM chemistry are often studied using direct infusion, high-resolution Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS). An increasingly common approach is to use ecological metrics (e.g., within-sample diversity) to summarize high-dimensional FTMS data, notably Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). However, problems can arise when FTMS peak-intensity data are used in a way that is analogous to abundances in ecological analyses (e.g., species abundance distributions). Using peak-intensity data in this way requires the assumption that intensities act as direct proxies for concentrations. Here, we show that comparisons of the same peak across samples (within-peak) may carry information regarding variations in relative concentration, but comparing different peaks (between-peak) within or between samples does not. We further developed a simulation model to study the quantitative implications of using peak intensities to compute ecological metrics (e.g., intensity-weighted mean properties and diversity) that rely on information about both within-peak and between-peak shifts in relative abundance. We found that, despite analytical limitations in linking concentration to intensity, ecological metrics often perform well in terms of providing robust qualitative inferences and sometimes quantitatively accurate estimates of diversity and mean molecular characteristics. We conclude with recommendations for the robust use of peak intensities for natural organic matter studies. A primary recommendation is the use and extension of the simulation model to provide objective guidance on the degree to which conceptual and quantitative inferences can be made for a given analysis of a given dataset. Broad use of this approach can help ensure rigorous scientific outcomes from the use of FTMS peak intensities in environmental applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Abstract. Land-use change has been the dominant source of anthropogenic carbon emissions for most of the historical period and is currently one of the largest and most uncertain components of the global carbon cycle. Advancing the scientific understanding on this topic requires that the best data be used as input to state-of-the-art models in well-organized scientific assessments. The Land-Use Harmonization 2 dataset (LUH2), previously developed and used as input for simulations of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), has been updated annually to provide required input to land models in the annual Global Carbon Budget (GCB) assessments. Here we discuss the methodology for producing these annual LUH2-GCB updates and extensions which incorporate annual wood harvest data updates from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for dataset years after 2015 and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) gridded cropland and grazing area data updates (based on annual FAO cropland and grazing area data updates) for dataset years after 2012, along with extrapolations to the current year due to a lag of 1 or more years in the FAO data releases. The resulting updated LUH2-GCB datasets have provided global, annual gridded land-use and land-use-change data relating to agricultural expansion, deforestation, wood harvesting, shifting cultivation, regrowth and afforestation, crop rotations, and pasture management and are used by both bookkeeping models and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) for the GCB. For GCB 2019, a more significant update to LUH2 was produced, LUH2-GCB2019 (https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1851, Chini et al., 2020b), to take advantage of new data inputs that corrected cropland and grazing areas in the globally important region of Brazil as far back as 1950. From 1951 to 2012 the LUH2-GCB2019 dataset begins to diverge from the version of LUH2 used for the World Climate Research Programme's CMIP6, with peak differences in Brazil in the year 2000 for grazing land (difference of 100 000 km2) and in the year 2009 for cropland (difference of 77 000 km2), along with significant sub-national reorganization of agricultural land-use patterns within Brazil. The LUH2-GCB2019 dataset provides the base for future LUH2-GCB updates, including the recent LUH2-GCB2020 dataset, and presents a starting point for operationalizing the creation of these datasets to reduce time lags due to the multiple input dataset and model latencies.

Chini, Louise (ORCID:0000000290703505)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Impurities in Neptunium Metal Using Double-Focusing SF-ICP-MS

In the transmutation process, minor actinides such as neptunium, americium and curium obtained from spent nuclear fuel are incorporated into new fuel that can be placed into a fast reactor, where these elements fission into products with shorter half-lives which reduces the health and safety hazards. In order to better understand the all the involved processes, fundamental physical properties of actinides should be investigated, and for that reason, high-purity materials need to be produced. One of the main challenges in characterizing these materials is the lack of pure metal available for study, and lack of analytical methods to determine the purity. Trans-uranic elements are challenging to study because of the need to be handled in specialized facilities, safeguards concerns and they are not easily purchased and/or produced. High-purity Np metal is being produced at the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC) of Idaho National Laboratory (INL), in a process of direct oxide reduction developed by Squires and Lessing, with a target purity of 99.999%. The goal of this research is to develop methods to determine the impurities in the Np metal, with detection limits low enough to achieve this purity level. In this work, we have used several ICP-MS and ICP OES techniques, but the focus was the method development using a recently acquired Double-Focusing Sector Field Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (SF-ICP-MS). To produce the Np metal, approximately 20 g of the neptunium oxide powder was calcined at 800 oC for 6 h in a magnesium oxide crucible, which is placed inside a stainless steel crucible, that goes into the Hot Uniaxial Press (HUP) furnace insert. After the calcining step, the Np oxide was mixed with approximately 9 g of calcium metal and 100 g of ultra-dry calcium chloride. The HUP furnace was heated in a ramp rate of 50 oC min -1 up to 1000 oC. When the reaction mixture reached 850 oC, a tantalum stirrer was activated at 100 rpm. After the tantalum stirrer was removed and the mixture cooled overnight, the MgO crucible was opened with a hammer and chisel to retrieve the Np metal button at the bottom of the reaction mixture. Prior to the dissolution process, the surface contaminants of the sample were removed. The Np button was washed in 10 mL of ultra-pure water for 1 min, with a faint reaction observed on the surface, indicating the presence of Ca metal. The water-washed sample was placed in a tube with 2 M HCl for only 3 s, as a vigorous reaction in the button surface was observed. The leachates were saved for further analysis. The sample was then rinsed with ultra-pure water and air-dried prior to dissolution. The cleaned sample was placed in a PTFE beaker and 25 mL of 6 M HCl and 150 µL of 24 M HF were added. After 10 minutes of reaction, the beaker was placed on a hot plate for 1 h and 30 min, followed by the addition of 1 mL of 16 M HNO3 and allowed to react for a further 1 h and 20 min. The sample was removed from heat and 10 mL of HNO3 16 M was added to react with the HCl. The beaker was covered and left for overnight reaction, producing a solution with approximately 20 mL of final volume. A Quadrupole Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometer (Q-ICP-MS, Perkin Elmer ELAN DRC II Q-ICP-MS) was used to obtain qualitative mass spectra for the dissolution blank, each of the leachates and the dissolved sample. In the water leachate spectrum mainly Ca and Mg were observed, while the acid wash had a similar peak pattern to the one observed for the Np metal sample, indicating that the process not only removed surface contamination, but also reacted with the sample itself. In the Np material spectrum, Ta and actinides were identified as candidates for major contaminants, as the most intense peaks corresponded to the mass-to-charge ratios of these elements. Minor contaminants included Al, Au, Ca, Cr, Fe, I, Na, Nb, Pb, Sn, Ti, Tl, V, Y. The presence of impurities in the material could have originated from several sources, such as the materials used for the casting process, the use of impure NpO2 or contamination of reagents and materials used for the analysis. Some of the isotopes listed as potential contaminants are susceptible to spectral interferences, so Double-Focusing SF-ICP-MS (Nu Instruments Attom ES HR-ICP-MS) was used for the quantitative analysis. For each isotope determined, several items were evaluated: raw signal of a blank solution, sensitivity and determination coefficient of calibration curves, possibility of interferences and comparison of results obtained for at least two resolving powers (RP): 300 and 4000. The evaluation of the signal in a blank solution can indicate if a spectral interference from the plasma gas and/or the solvent was successfully resolved (commonly observed for 52Cr+/40Ar12C+, for example). It is important to highlight that a signal reduction is expected when a higher RP is used, as the ion beam transmission is decreased by the use of narrower slits

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Cosmic Ray Muons to Assess Geological Characteristics in the Subsurface

Cosmic rays are energetic nuclei and elementary particles that originate from stars and intergalactic events. The interaction of these particles with the upper atmosphere produces a wide range of secondary particles that reach the surface of the earth, of which muons are the most prominent. With enough energy, muons can travel up to a few kilometers beneath the surface of the earth before being stopped completely. The terrestrial muon flux profile and associated zenith angle can be utilized to determine geological characteristics of a location (e.g., rock overburden and density) without having to use conventional methods such as boreholes. This work uses a low-power plastic scintillator-based muon detection system as a prototype for this non-destructive geological assay methodology. Four custom designed 102 cm x 51 cm x 5 cm plastic scintillation panels are used to realize two orthogonal detection planes. Optical photons from each scintillation panel are read using OnSemi J-Series 4x4 silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) arrays in conjunction with preamplifiers. Simultaneous triggers between detectors from two planes indicate a coincidence event which is recorded using the QuarkNet data acquisition system (DAQ) from Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. A custom detector holder was designed to securely mount the detection system and rotate the panels along the zenith to collect data at variable angles. In order to quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with the detector, such as energy depositions and angular resolution of the detector design, a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation using Geant4 is being developed. Cosmic ray flux prediction will be included in the project by adding the CORSIKA MC code to the simulation toolchain. Simulated and experimental data will drive the development and validation of a reconstruction algorithm that, upon completion, is expected to predict average overburden and rock density. Extended detector exposure to muons can be used as a means to understand changes in the surrounding environment like rock porosity. On the experimental front, muons will initially be measured at the surface, establishing the baseline flux. This is followed by recording the muon flux at variable depths and zenith angles, where the data will be used by the reconstruction algorithm to predict the overburden. The result will be benchmarked against geological surveys. The measured flux data will also be used to benchmark independent and established models. Successful proof-of-concept demonstration of this technology can open doors for long term non-invasive geological monitoring. The detector design, experimental methodology, and the benchmarking efforts are detailed in this work.

Gadey, Harish Reddy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlating and Simulating Socio-Demographically Driven Residential End-Use Activity Schedules

Incorporating socio-demographic and behavioral considerations into decision-support tools is crucial for identifying gaps and addressing consumer needs to ensure reliable and affordable energy solutions. In energy simulation models, the correlation between socio-demographics and time-use behavior is not well-captured. Thus, we developed a large-scale simulation workflow to generate schedules for 10 residential activities across 24 population segments defined by age, income, and employment status. Using pre-pandemic 2015-2019 American Time Use Survey (ATUS) data, we used ANOVA to confirm the correlation between demographic factors and time use. We explored three k-modes clustering methods-backward, forward, and a new hybrid approach-to delineate the occupancy patterns based on demographics. Using the probability of cluster membership for each population segment and a time inhomogeneous Markov chain to generate activity transition probabilities for each cluster, we simulated 50,000 schedules per segment and validated them against the ATUS data. The hybrid method produced the most socio-demographically differentiated clusters while demonstrating comparable performance to other approaches, with an overall root mean square error of 0.12 for both weekday and weekend schedules. Thus, the hybrid method, where each cluster is dominated by certain demographic segments and occupancy patterns, offers more modeling versatility in terms of scenario analysis. The new workflow improves the socio demographic differentiation of energy consumption by considering differences in time use. This approach enables future research on demographically segmented time of use (TOU) energy consumption, including impacts of TOU utility bills and rate analysis, long-run marginal emissions, and energy retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Task 12 PV Sustainability - Mineral Resource Use Footprints of Residential PV Systems

Resource use intensity is often mentioned as one of the main characteristics of PV systems and PV electricity. Recently, the International Energy Agency published a report on the role of critical minerals in clean energy transitions. The Product Environmental Footprint pilot study on PV electricity quantified (among other environmental impacts) its abiotic depletion potential. So far, a comprehensive assessment of resource use impacts highlighting the different facets of its impacts is however lacking. For the first time, the resource use impacts of PV electricity are quantified simultaneously with four impact category indicators recommended or suggested by the Life Cycle Initiative hosted at UN Environment. The indicators cover distinctly different aspects of resource use, namely resource depletion with the Abiotic Depletion Potential, ultimate reserves (ADP UR ), economic resource scarcity with the Abiotic Depletion Potential, economic reserves (ADP ER ), resource quality with the Surplus Ore Potential, Ultimate Recoverable Resources (SOP URR ) and re-source criticality with the ESSENZ method. The resource use impacts caused from the generation of 1 kWh electricity with a residential scale photovoltaic (PV) system installed in Central Europe using mono- and multi-crystalline silicon panels and CdTe panels, respectively are quantified. The product system includes manufacture, use and end of life treatment (take back and recycling) of the PV panels, cabling, inverter and supporting structure, the supply chains of the raw materials and energy used in PV panel and inverter manufacture as well as transport logistics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Genetic Architecture of Nitrogen Use Efficiency in Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.)

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has immense potential as a bioenergy crop with the aim of producing biofuel as an end goal. Nitrogen (N)-related sustainability traits, such as nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen remobilization efficiency (NRE), are important factors affecting switchgrass quality and productivity. Hence, it is imperative to develop nitrogen use-efficient switchgrass accessions by exploring the genetic basis of NUE in switchgrass. For that, we used 331 diverse field-grown switchgrass accessions planted under low and moderate N fertility treatments. We performed a genome wide association study (GWAS) in a holistic manner where we not only considered NUE as a single trait but also used its related phenotypic traits, such as total dry biomass at low N and moderate N, and nitrogen use index, such as NRE. We have evaluated the phenotypic characterization of the NUE and the related traits, highlighted their relationship using correlation analysis, and identified the top ten nitrogen use-efficient switchgrass accessions. Our GWAS analysis identified 19 unique single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 32 candidate genes. Two promising GWAS candidate genes, caffeoyl-CoA O-methyltransferase (CCoAOMT) and <alfin-like 6(AL6), were further supported by linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis. Finally, we discussed the potential role of nitrogen in modulating the expression of these two genes. Our findings have opened avenues for the development of improved nitrogen use-efficient switchgrass lines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Structural Break and Causal Analyses of U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Other Corn Market Variables

The causal basis for many of the relationships in models used to estimate the indirect effects of U.S. biofuels on global agricultural markets has not been adequately established. This paper addresses this gap by examining causal interactions among corn market variables through which the indirect effects of U.S. corn use for ethanol would be transmitted. Specifically, structural break and causal analyses of U.S. corn supply, uses, trade, and price are performed using quarterly data for marketing years 1986 to 2017. The structural break analysis identifies three breaks in corn use for ethanol that reflect the policy-driven evolution of U.S. corn ethanol production and other market factors. The causality analysis finds that U.S. corn use for ethanol is not a driver of the corn price and net corn exports. Changes in corn supply and domestic corn use are found to be the key factors in accommodating the large increase in corn use for ethanol between 2003 and 2010. These results mean that common assumptions linking U.S. corn ethanol production to large reductions in corn availability and exports, and higher global corn prices merit reconsideration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Image Classification Deep Convolutional Neural Network Architectures for Remaining Useful Life Estimation of Turbofan Engines

Accurate estimation of the remaining useful life (RUL) is a key component of condition-based maintenance (CBM) and prognosis and health management (PHM). Data-based models for the estimation of RUL are of particular interest because expert knowledge of systems is not always available, and physical modeling is often not feasible. Additionally, using data-based models, which make decisions based on raw sensor data, allow features to be learned instead of manually determined. In this work, deep convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures are investigated for their ability to estimate the RUL of turbofan engines. To improve the accuracy of the models, CNN architectures, which have proven successful in image classification, are implemented and tested. Specifically, the blocks used in the Visual Geometry Group (VGG) architecture, inception modules used in the GoogLeNet architecture, and residual blocks used in the ResNet architecture are incorporated. To account for varying flight lengths, the input to the models is a window of time series data collected from the engine under test. Window locations at the climb, cruise, and descent stages are considered. To further improve the RUL estimations, multiple overlapping windows at each location are used. This increases the amount of training data available and is found to increase the accuracy of the resulting RUL estimations by averaging the estimates from all overlapping segments. The model is trained and tested using the new Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (N-CMAPSS) data set, and high prognosis accuracy was achieved. Furthermore, this work expands on the model developed and used in the 2021 PHM Society Data Challenge, which received second place.

convolutional neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2024

Land cover and space use influence coyote carnivory: evidence from stable-isotope analysis

For many species, the relationship between space use and diet composition is complex, with individuals adopting varying space use strategies such as territoriality to facilitate resource acquisition. Coyotes ( Canis latrans ) exhibit two disparate types of space use; defending mutually exclusive territories (residents) or moving nomadically across landscapes (transients). Resident coyotes have increased access to familiar food resources, thus improved foraging opportunities to compensate for the energetic costs of defending territories. Conversely, transients do not defend territories and are able to redirect energetic costs of territorial defense towards extensive movements in search of mates and breeding opportunities. These differences in space use attributed to different behavioral strategies likely influence foraging and ultimately diet composition, but these relationships have not been well studied. We investigated diet composition of resident and transient coyotes in the southeastern United States by pairing individual space use patterns with analysis of stable carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotope values to assess diet. During 2016–2017, we monitored 41 coyotes (26 residents, 15 transients) with GPS radio-collars along the Savannah River area in the southeastern United States. We observed a canopy effect on δ 13 C values and little anthropogenic food in coyote diets, suggesting 13 C enrichment is likely more influenced by reduced canopy cover than consumption of human foods. We also observed other land cover effects, such as agricultural cover and road density, on δ 15 N values as well as reduced space used by coyotes, suggesting that cover types and localized, resident-like space use can influence the degree of carnivory in coyotes. Finally, diets and niche space did not differ between resident and transient coyotes despite differences observed in the proportional contribution of potential food sources to their diets. Although our stable isotope mixing models detected differences between the diets of resident and transient coyotes, both relied mostly on mammalian prey (52.8%, SD = 15.9 for residents, 42.0%, SD = 15.6 for transients). Resident coyotes consumed more game birds (21.3%, SD = 11.6 vs 13.7%, SD = 8.8) and less fruit (10.5%, SD = 6.9 vs 21.3%, SD = 10.7) and insects (7.2%, SD = 4.7 vs 14.3%, SD = 8.5) than did transients. Our findings indicate that coyote populations fall on a feeding continuum of omnivory to carnivory in which variability in feeding strategies is influenced by land cover characteristics and space use behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting effects of land-use and local disturbance on plant and pollinator communities in wetlands

While pollinators and wetlands both provide important ecosystem services (e.g., the pollination of flowering plants and improving water quality), the relationship between the two is not well understood. Both biotic and abiotic effects can mediate the local wetland flower and pollinator community. In this study, we investigated how land use, including a land use gradient at five different radii, from 250 m to 2 km, along with anthropogenic disturbance affected pollinators in wetland ecosystems. We surveyed the abundance and diversity of plant-pollinator communities in fifteen different wetlands across two years. We also tested the relationship between water quality and temperature, and the abundance and diversity of flowering plants and pollinating insects. Our results suggest that increasing temperature, which was strongly associated with developed land use, had a negative effect on the floral display of wetland plants, as well as the abundance of all flower visitors and hover flies. Hover fly abundance was also positively associated with agricultural land use and total nitrogen in the water. Meanwhile, the abundance of female bees was affected by an interaction between temperature and disturbance: female bees were most abundant when temperatures were lower in areas of low disturbance. In contrast, pollinator species richness increased with temperature when developed land use was low, and floral diversity was strongly affected by several interactions between disturbance, land use, and water quality. Finally, the community composition of both plants and insects varied significantly among low, medium, and high disturbance categories, with weedier, non-native species being significantly associated with areas of higher disturbance and in sites with greater anthropogenic land use. We demonstrate that ecological communities shift significantly in response to anthropogenic change. Our work also illustrates the importance of quantifying interactions between land use and local disturbance with abiotic factors such as temperature and water quality on ecological systems.

Disturbance↗
DOE OSTI2025

An economic and technical feasibility analysis of a dual-source heat pump using both the air and the ground

The study investigates the economic and technical performance of a novel dual-source heat pump (DSHP) compared with that of air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) and ground-source heat pumps (GSHPs). The DSHP can use both ambient air and the ground as a heat source or heat sink. It uses ambient air when its temperature is favorable for efficient heat pump operation. When the ambient temperature is too hot or cold, the ground source is used to retain high-efficiency heat pump operation. Since the DSHP can alternately use either the ground heat exchanger (GHE) or ambient air to meet the thermal load, the required size of GHE can be smaller than those of GSHPs. This study models the DSHP using a whole building energy simulation tool (EnergyPlus) coupled with a Python plug-in and Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM) to simulate its heating and cooling performance for a typical single-family home in 15 US climate zones. The required GHE size of the DSHP system is determined through simulations and compared with that of GSHPs. DSHP deployment can reduce electricity use compared to ASHPs, especially in cold climates where it shows a reduction of around 50%. When compared to GSHPs, DSHPs use 20%–40% more electricity in warm climates but consume around the same amount in moderate and colder climates. Since the DSHP can use air source when the ambient temperature is mild, the GHE size needed for the DSHP is about 40% less than that needed for GSHPs in hot climates and about 25% less in cold climates. In conclusion, the life cycle cost analysis shows that the DSHP is economically more feasible than ASHPs in colder regions and economically more feasible than GSHPs in hot and cold regions.

Dual-source heat pumps↗