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At least 613 records · Page 34

Deep Generative Modeling of Periodic Variable Stars Using Physical Parameters

The ability to generate physically plausible ensembles of variable sources is critical to the optimization of time domain survey cadences and the training of classification models on data sets with few to no labels. Traditional data augmentation techniques expand training sets by reenvisioning observed exemplars, seeking to simulate observations of specific training sources under different (exogenous) conditions. Unlike fully theory-driven models, these approaches do not typically allow principled interpolation nor extrapolation. Moreover, the principal drawback of theory-driven models lies in the prohibitive computational cost of simulating source observables from ab initio parameters. In this work, we propose a computationally tractable machine learning approach to generate realistic light curves of periodic variables capable of integrating physical parameters and variability classes as inputs. Our deep generative model, inspired by the transparent latent space generative adversarial networks, uses a variational autoencoder (VAE) architecture with temporal convolutional network layers, trained using the OGLE-III optical light curves and physical characteristics (e.g., effective temperature and absolute magnitude) from Gaia DR2. A test using the temperature–shape relationship of RR Lyrae demonstrates the efficacy of our generative “physics-enhanced latent space VAE” (PELS-VAE) model. Such deep generative models, serving as nonlinear nonparametric emulators, present a novel tool for astronomers to create synthetic time series over arbitrary cadences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Surveying System

Sunrise Geodetic Surveys are setting up their equipment for a town survey. Their equipment differs from conventional surveying systems that employ transit rod and chain to measure angles and distances. They are using ISTAC Inc.'s Model 2002 positioning system, which offers fast accurate surveying with exceptional signals from orbiting satellites. The special utility of the ISTAC Model 2002 is that it can provide positioning of the highest accuracy from Navstar PPS signals because it requires no knowledge of secret codes. It operates by comparing the frequency and time phase of a Navstar signal arriving at one ISTAC receiver with the reception of the same set of signals by another receiver. Data is computer processed and translated into three dimensional position data - latitude, longitude and elevation.

Source record↗

Exploring the Relationship Between Social Factors and Government Survey Nonresponse

In a previous study, we explored the relationship between economic and political factors and survey refusal, and noted the importance to collect or otherwise obtain measures that will help us understand more about the social aspect of the social-political-economic construct of survey nonresponse. Recently, we had the opportunity to collect such measures as part of the Census Tracking Survey. The Tracking Survey was launched in September 2019 and concluded in June 2020. It was a national survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that tracked public awareness of the 2020 Census. Participants were asked about a variety of questions, including questions about social engagement and empathy, both possible measures of one’s social environment and hence one’s attitude towards participating in a government survey. To our knowledge, empathy has not been considered as factor of survey nonresponse. We propose that social factors such as these play an important role in the decision to participate in a survey. Using the Tracking Survey data, we built a logistic regression model, with plan to participate/participated in the 2020 Census as the dependent variable, and known and suspected factors of survey participation as independent variables. We found that social engagement and empathy were both important factors of participating in the Census.

Luke J. Larsen↗

Towards the Reconstruction of Integrated Genome-Scale Models of Metabolism and Gene Expression

The reconstruction of integrated genome-scale models of metabolism and gene expression has been a challenge for a while now. In fact, various methods that allow integrating reconstructions of Transcriptional Regulatory Networks, gene expression data or both into Genome-Scale Metabolic Models have been proposed. Several of these methods are surveyed in this article, which allowed identifying their strengths and weaknesses concerning the reconstruction of integrated models for multiple prokaryotic organisms. Additionally, the main resources of regulatory information were also surveyed, as the existence of novel sources of regulatory information and gene expression data may contribute for the improvement of methodologies referred herein.

Databases of regulatory information↗

Gamma rays and large scale galactic structure

Many theoretical models were developed in an attempt to explain the spatial structure in the observed emission which results from interactions of energetic cosmic rays with the interstellar gas. The peaks in the observed distribution are remarkably well correlated with longitudes corresponding to tangential directions to known spiral arm features. Based on theoretical and experimental arguments, it is assumed that on the scale of galactic arms the cosmic rays are more intense where the mass of the gas to which they are coupled is greatest. Refining this model with the results of recent surveys of the interstellar gas, a good fit to the observations is obtained whether the cosmic rays are confined to the spiral arms in the disk or are more evenly confined as in a flat halo model.

Kniffen, D. A.↗

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗

Linear systematics mitigation in galaxy clustering in the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Data

ABSTRACT We implement a linear model for mitigating the effect of observing conditions and other sources of contamination in galaxy clustering analyses. Our treatment improves upon the fiducial systematics treatment of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 (Y1) cosmology analysis in four crucial ways. Specifically, our treatment (1) does not require decisions as to which observable systematics are significant and which are not, allowing for the possibility of multiple maps adding coherently to give rise to significant bias even if no single map leads to a significant bias by itself, (2) characterizes both the statistical and systematic uncertainty in our mitigation procedure, allowing us to propagate said uncertainties into the reported cosmological constraints, (3) explicitly exploits the full spatial structure of the galaxy density field to differentiate between cosmology-sourced and systematics-sourced fluctuations within the galaxy density field, and (4) is fully automated, and can therefore be trivially applied to any data set. The updated correlation function for the DES Y1 redMaGiC catalogue minimally impacts the cosmological posteriors from that analysis. Encouragingly, our analysis does improve the goodness-of-fit statistic of the DES Y1 3 × 2pt data set (Δχ2 = −6.5 with no additional parameters). This improvement is due in nearly equal parts to both the change in the correlation function and the added statistical and systematic uncertainties associated with our method. We expect the difference in mitigation techniques to become more important in future work as the size of cosmological data sets grows.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Solar Probe Plus: Unique Navigation Modeling Challenges

The Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission is preparing to launch in 2018, and will directly investigate the outer atmosphere of our star. At 9.86 solar radii, SPP must operate in an unexplored regime. The environment and aspects of the mission design present some unique challenges for navigation, particularly in terms of modeling the dynamics. Non-gravitational force models, unique to this mission, are given with analytical expressions. For each of these models (and error sources), a maximum bound on the force perturbation magnitude is quantified numerically. Additionally, the effect of charged particles on radiometric observables is discussed, along with methods being employed to pre-process the measurements. This survey is an overview of unique modeling employed by SPP navigation, but also a reference for future missions traveling near the Sun.

Jones, Drew Ryan↗

Numerical modelling of cryogenic propellant behavior in low-G

A partial survey is presented of recent research, sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center, into the computational modelling of cryogenic propellant behavior in a low gravity environment. This presentation is intended to provide insight into some of the specific problems being studied and into how these studies are part of an integrated plan to develop predictive capabilities. A brief description of the computational models developed to analyze jet induced mixing in cryogenic propellant tankage is presented along with representative results. Similar information is presented for a recent examination of on-orbit self-pressurization. A study of propellant reorientation has recently been initiated and preliminary results are included. The presentation concludes with a list of ongoing efforts and projected goals.

Hochstein, John I.↗

Numerical Modeling of Anisotropic Elastic-Wave Sensitivity Propagation for Optimal Design of Time-Lapse Seismic Surveys

Reliable subsurface time-lapse seismic monitoring is crucial for many geophysical applications, such as enhanced geothermal system characterization, geologic carbon utilization and storage, and conventional and unconventional oil/gas reservoir characterization, etc. In this work, we develop an elastic-wave sensitivity propagation method for optimal design of cost-effective time-lapse seismic surveys considering the fact that most of subsurface geologic layers and fractured reservoirs are anisotropic instead of isotropic. For anisotropic media, we define monitoring criteria using qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies after decomposing qP- and qS-wave components from the total elastic-wave sensitivity wavefield using a hybrid time- and frequency-domain approach. Geophones should therefore be placed at locations with significant qP- and qS-wave sensitivity energies for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring in an anisotropic geology setting. Our numerical modeling results for a modified anisotropic Hess model demonstrate that, compared with the isotropic case, subsurface anisotropy changes the spatial distributions of elastic-wave sensitivity energies. Consequently, it is necessary to consider subsurface anisotropies when designing the spatial distribution of geophones for cost-effective time-lapse seismic monitoring. This finding suggests that it is essential to use our new anisotropic elastic-wave sensitivity modeling method for optimal design of time-lapse seismic surveys to reliably monitor the changes in subsurface reservoirs, fracture zones or target monitoring regions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Survey of Relevant Data from the MSRP to Guide Development of MSR Chemistry Modeling Benchmarks

The Multiphysics Applications technical area of the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is tasked with assessing, demonstrating, and applying NEAMS tools in solving multiphysics problems of nuclear reactors, such as liquid-fueled molten salt reactors (MSRs), which are the focus of this report. MSRs are actively being pursued as a potential candidate for power and heat generation by the nuclear industry. However, the inherent multiphysics nature of liquid-fueled MSRs, stemming from the strong interrelationship of neutronics, thermal fluids, and chemistry phenomena, provides unique challenges in modeling and simulation (mod/sim). Therefore, it will be important to develop mod/sim tools with varying types of multiphysics coupling that depend on the problem. The current work is focused on the initiation and development of MSR chemistry modeling benchmarks useful for validating current and potential future NEAMS tools. Development of such benchmarks include the following actions: 1) Summarize available chemistry data from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) MSR Program (MSRP) including operation of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) and design studies for the Molten Salt Breeder Reactor (MSBR) concept; 2) Recommend simulation problems in MSR chemistry mod/sim based on (1); 3) Assess the current state of NEAMS tools that may support (2); 4) Demonstrate and validate the capabilities of the NEAMS tools in (3) while providing iterative feedback on future code development activities. The objective of this report is to initiate this effort by completing actions (1) and (2), which are discussed in Section 2. An overview of the relevant available MSRE experimental data is provided with examples of how this data may be useful in chemistry mod/sim problems, with the caveat that most of this data is over 50 years old, therefore some problem details as well as uncertainty estimates are often not provided. In Section 3, the current state of NEAMS tools is assessed for potential use in these mod/sim problems, with considerations for future code development activities, supporting action (3). Future work supporting this project under NEAMS may include a deeper dive into the specific phenomena discussed here including tasks such as the compilation of additional available data, updates in code development activities, and ultimately the demonstration and validation of these tools, supporting action (4).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A survey of particle measurements in the Arctic from the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe model 300

A new instrument, the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP) 300, was used on the NASA ER-2 during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) to count and size particles in the size range 0.4-24 microns in diameter. A brief description of the instrument is presented, and observations for each ER-2 flight are summarized. Measurements were made in both type I and type II polar stratospheric clouds as well as in the background sulfuric-acid particles. Total particle concentrations up to 16/cu cm with total particle volumes up to 10 cubic micron/cu cm were observed in some of the polar-stratospheric-cloud events.

Dye, J. E.↗

Shift Happens: Building Robust AI Models with Domain Adaptation

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research—from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data—exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This summer school session will introduce students to common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation—a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery. The concepts discussed are broadly applicable across physics and other scientific disciplines, making this a valuable topic for anyone interested in building robust, transferable AI models for science.

Ciprijanovic, A. [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000031281719↗

AI in Astrophysics: Tackling Domain Shift, Model Robustness and Uncertainty

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing physics research from probing the large-scale structure of the Universe to modeling subatomic interactions and fundamental forces. Yet, a major challenge persists: AI models trained on simulations or old experiment / astronomical survey often perform poorly when applied to new data exposing issues of dataset (domain) shift, model robustness, and uncertainty in predictions. This talk will introduce common challenges in applying AI across domains and present solutions based on domain adaptation a set of techniques designed to improve model generalization under domain shift. We will cover foundational ideas, practical strategies, and current research frontiers in this area. Through examples in astrophysics, we'll explore how domain adaptation can help bridge the gap between synthetic and real-world data, improve trust in model outputs, and advance scientific discovery.

Ciprijanvoic, Aleksandra [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000↗

OSSOS. XXI. Collision Probabilities in the Edgeworth–Kuiper Belt

Here, we present results on the intrinsic collision probabilities, P {sub I}, and range of collision speeds, V {sub I}, as a function of the heliocentric distance, r, in the trans-Neptunian region. The collision speed is one of the parameters that serves as a proxy for a collisional outcome (e.g., disruption and scattering of fragments, or formation of a crater, as both processes are related to the impact energy). We utilize an improved and debiased model of the trans-Neptunian object (TNO) region from the “Outer Solar System Origins Survey” (OSSOS). It provides a well-defined model of TNO orbital distribution, based on multiple opposition observations of more than 1000 bodies. We compute collisional probabilities for the OSSOS models of the main classical, resonant, detached+outer, and scattering TNO populations. The intrinsic collision probabilities and collision speeds are computed using Öpik’s approach, as revised and modified by Wetherill for noncircular and inclined orbits. The calculations are carried out for each of the dynamical TNO groups, allowing for inter-population collisions as well as collisions within each TNO population, resulting in 28 combinations in total. Our results indicate that collisions in the trans-Neptunian region are possible over a wide range in (r, V {sub I}) phase space. Although collisions are calculated to happen within r ∼ 20–200 au and V {sub I} ∼ 0.1 km s{sup −1} to as high as V {sub I} ∼ 9 km s{sup −1}, most of the collisions are likely to happen at low relative velocities V {sub I} < 1 km s{sup −1} and are dominated by the main classical belt.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Geomagnetic modeling by optimal recursive filtering

The results of a preliminary study to determine the feasibility of using Kalman filter techniques for geomagnetic field modeling are given. Specifically, five separate field models were computed using observatory annual means, satellite, survey and airborne data for the years 1950 to 1976. Each of the individual field models used approximately five years of data. These five models were combined using a recursive information filter (a Kalman filter written in terms of information matrices rather than covariance matrices.) The resulting estimate of the geomagnetic field and its secular variation was propogated four years past the data to the time of the MAGSAT data. The accuracy with which this field model matched the MAGSAT data was evaluated by comparisons with predictions from other pre-MAGSAT field models. The field estimate obtained by recursive estimation was found to be superior to all other models.

Gibbs, B. P.↗

Utah FORGE - Development of a Reservoir Seismic Velocity Model and Seismic Resolution Study

This is data from and a final report on the development of a 3D velocity model for the larger FORGE area and on the seismic resolution in the stimulated fracture volume at the bottom of well 16A-32. The velocity model was developed using RMS velocities of the seismic reflection survey and seismic velocity logs from borehole measurements as an input model. To improve the accuracy of the model in the shallow subsurface, travel times phase arrivals of the direct propagating P-waves were determined from the seismic reflection data, using PhaseNet, a deep-neural-network-based seismic arrival time picking method. The travel times were subsequently inverted using the input velocity model. The seismic resolution study used borehole and surface seismic sensors as well as the seismicity observed during the April 2022 stimulation experiment to estimate the seismic resolution in the activated fracture reservoir. The data contain a 3D P- and S-wave velocity model for the larger FORGE area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗