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At least 613 records · Page 34

A Framework for Software Health Management Using Bayesian Statistics

Software Health Management (SWHM) must make sure that the software always remains in safe and healthy regions of the state space. Boundaries between healthy and unhealthy regions are important for the detection of violations and health management.In this position paper, we present a framework, which employs techniques from Bayesian statistical modeling and active learning to efficiently characterize health boundaries in high-dimensional spaces. We will discuss, how this framework supports SWHM during design time and during operation of learning/adapting software systems

software health management↗

SU-F-T-687: Comparison of SPECT/CT-Based Methodologies for Estimating Lung Dose from Y-90 Radioembolization

Purpose: To compare mean lung dose (MLD) estimates from 99mTc macroaggregated albumin (MAA) SPECT/CT using two published methodologies for patients treated with {sup 90}Y radioembolization for liver cancer. Methods: MLD was estimated retrospectively using two methodologies for 40 patients from SPECT/CT images of 99mTc-MAA administered prior to radioembolization. In these two methods, lung shunt fractions (LSFs) were calculated as the ratio of scanned lung activity to the activity in the entire scan volume or to the sum of activity in the lung and liver respectively. Misregistration of liver activity into the lungs during SPECT acquisition was overcome by excluding lung counts within either 2 or 1.5 cm of the diaphragm apex respectively. Patient lung density was assumed to be 0.3 g/cm{sup 3} or derived from CT densitovolumetry respectively. Results from both approaches were compared to MLD determined by planar scintigraphy (PS). The effect of patient size on the difference between MLD from PS and SPECT/CT was also investigated. Results: Lung density from CT densitovolumetry is not different from the reference density (p = 0.68). The second method resulted in lung dose of an average 1.5 times larger lung dose compared to the first method; however the difference between the means of the two estimates was not significant (p = 0.07). Lung dose from both methods were statistically different from those estimated from 2D PS (p < 0.001). There was no correlation between patient size and the difference between MLD from PS and both SPECT/CT methods (r < 0.22, p > 0.17). Conclusion: There is no statistically significant difference between MLD estimated from the two techniques. Both methods are statistically different from conventional PS, with PS overestimating dose by a factor of three or larger. The difference between lung doses estimated from 2D planar or 3D SPECT/CT is not dependent on patient size.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Exploring quantum statistics for massive Dirac and Majorana neutrinos using spinor-helicity techniques

Recently, there has been interest in the applicability of quantum statistics to distinguish Dirac from Majorana neutrinos in multineutrino final states. In particular, debate has arisen over the validity of the Dirac-Majorana confusion theorem in these processes, i.e., that any distinction between the Dirac and Majorana processes goes to zero as the neutrino mass goes to zero. Here we approach this problem equipped with spinor-helicity methods generalized for massive Dirac and Majorana fermions. We explicitly calculate all helicity amplitudes, and their squares, for the decay of a light scalar particle to two neutrinos and two oppositely charged leptons. This allows us to pinpoint the crucial steps which could lead to claims of a violation of the confusion theorem. We show that, if the correct antisymmetrization of Dirac to Majorana amplitudes is used, identification of which is clear in this framework, and all relevant contributions are appropriately summed, a scalar decay into two charged leptons and two neutrinos satisfies the Dirac-Majorana confusion theorem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Correlation techniques and measurements of wave-height statistics

Statistical measurements of wave height fluctuations have been made in a wind wave tank. The power spectral density function of temporal wave height fluctuations evidenced second-harmonic components and an f to the minus 5th power law decay beyond the second harmonic. The observations of second harmonic effects agreed very well with a theoretical prediction. From the wave statistics, surface drift currents were inferred and compared to experimental measurements with satisfactory agreement. Measurements were made of the two dimensional correlation coefficient at 15 deg increments in angle with respect to the wind vector. An estimate of the two-dimensional spatial power spectral density function was also made.

Guthart, H.↗

An extended radar relative calibration adjustment (eRCA) technique for higher-frequency radars and range–height indicator (RHI) scans

Abstract. This study extends the relative calibration adjustment technique for calibration of weather radars to higher-frequency radars as well as range–height indicator (RHI) scans. The calibration of weather radars represents one of the most dominant sources of error for their use in a variety of fields including quantitative precipitation estimation and model comparisons. While most weather radars are routinely calibrated, the frequency of calibration is often less than required, resulting in miscalibrated time periods. While full absolute calibration techniques often require the radar to be taken offline for a period of time, there have been online calibration techniques discussed in the literature. The relative calibration adjustment (RCA) technique uses the statistics of the ground clutter surrounding the radar as a monitoring source for the stability of calibration but has only been demonstrated to work at S- and C-band for plan-position indicator (PPI) scans at a constant elevation. In this work the RCA technique is modified to work with higher-frequency radars, including Ka-band cloud radars. At higher frequencies the properties of clutter can be much more variable. This work introduces an extended clutter selection procedure that incorporates the temporal stability of clutter and helps to improve the operational stability of RCA for relatively higher-frequency radars. The technique is also extended to utilize range–height scans from radars where the elevation is varied rather than the azimuth. These types of scans are often utilized with research radars to examine the vertical structure of clouds. The newly extended technique (eRCA) is applied to four Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (DOE ARM) weather radars ranging in frequency from C- to Ka-band. Cross comparisons of three co-located radars with frequencies C, X, and Ka at the ARM Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) site show that the technique can determine changes in calibration. Using an X-band radar at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site, we show how the technique can be modified to be more resilient to clutter fields that show increased variability, in this case due to sea clutter. The results show that this technique is promising for a posteriori data calibration and monitoring.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Structural Health Monitoring of Composite Plates Under Ambient and Cryogenic Conditions

Methods for structural health monitoring are now being assessed, especially in high-performance, extreme environment, safety-critical applications. One such application is for composite cryogenic fuel tanks. The work presented here attempts to characterize and investigate the feasibility of using imbedded piezoelectric sensors to detect cracks and delaminations under cryogenic and ambient conditions. Different types of excitation and response signals and different sensors are employed in composite plate samples to aid in determining an optimal algorithm, sensor placement strategy, and type of imbedded sensor to use. Variations of frequency and high frequency chirps of the sensors are employed and compared. Statistical and analytic techniques are then used to determine which method is most desirable for a specific type of damage and operating environment. These results are furthermore compared with previous work using externally mounted sensors. More work is needed to accurately account for changes in temperature seen in these environments and be statistically significant. Sensor development and placement strategy are other areas of further work to make structural health monitoring more robust. Results from this and other work might then be incorporated into a larger composite structure to validate and assess its structural health. This could prove to be important in the development and qualification of any 2nd generation reusable launch vehicle using composites as a structural element.

Engberg, Robert C.↗

Comparative evaluation of workload estimation techniques in piloting tasks

Techniques to measure operator workload in a wide range of situations and tasks were examined. The sensitivity and intrusion of a wide variety of workload assessment techniques in simulated piloting tasks were investigated. Four different piloting tasks, psychomotor, perceptual, mediational, and communication aspects of piloting behavior were selected. Techniques to determine relative sensitivity and intrusion were applied. Sensitivity is the relative ability of a workload estimation technique to discriminate statistically significant differences in operator loading. High sensitivity requires discriminable changes in score means as a function of load level and low variation of the scores about the means. Intrusion is an undesirable change in the task for which workload is measured, resulting from the introduction of the workload estimation technique or apparatus.

Wierwille, W. W.↗

Coupling Visualization, Simulation, and Deep Learning for Ensemble Steering of Complex Energy Models

We describe a new framework that allows users to explore and steer ensembles of energy systems simulations by coupling multiple energy models and interactive visualization through a dataflow API. Through the visual interface, users can interactively explore complex parameter spaces populated by hundreds, or thousands, of simulation runs and interactively spawn new simulations to 'fill in' regions of interest in the parameter space. The computational and visualization capabilities reside within a general-purpose dataflow architecture for connecting producers of multidimensional timeseries data, such as energy simulations, with consumers of that data, whether they be visualizations, statistical analyses, or datastores. Fast computation and agile dataflow can enhance the engagement with energy simulations, allowing users to populate the parameter space in real time. However, many energy simulations are far too slow to provide an interactive response. To support interactive feedback, we are creating reduced-form simulations developed through machine learning techniques, which provide statistically sound estimates of the results of the full simulations at a fraction of the computational cost. These reduced-form simulations have response times on the order of seconds, suitable for real-time human-in-the-loop design and analysis. The approximation methods apply to a wide range of computational models, including supply-chain models, electric power grid simulations, and building models. Such reduced-form representations do not replace or re-implement existing simulations, but instead supplement them by enabling rapid scenario design and exploration for large ensembles of simulations. The improved understanding, facilitated by the reduced-form models, dataflow API, and visualization tools, allows researchers to better allocate computational resources to capture informative relationships within the system as well as provide a low-cost method for validating and quality-checking large-scale modeling efforts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pattern recognition of satellite cloud imagery for improved weather prediction

The major accomplishment was the successful development of a method for extracting time derivative information from geostationary meteorological satellite imagery. This research is a proof-of-concept study which demonstrates the feasibility of using pattern recognition techniques and a statistical cloud classification method to estimate time rate of change of large-scale meteorological fields from remote sensing data. The cloud classification methodology is based on typical shape function analysis of parameter sets characterizing the cloud fields. The three specific technical objectives, all of which were successfully achieved, are as follows: develop and test a cloud classification technique based on pattern recognition methods, suitable for the analysis of visible and infrared geostationary satellite VISSR imagery; develop and test a methodology for intercomparing successive images using the cloud classification technique, so as to obtain estimates of the time rate of change of meteorological fields; and implement this technique in a testbed system incorporating an interactive graphics terminal to determine the feasibility of extracting time derivative information suitable for comparison with numerical weather prediction products.

Gautier, Catherine↗

A Review of Recent Developments in X-Ray Diagnostics for Turbulent and Optically Dense Rocket Sprays

Highly efficient mixing and atomization of fuel and oxidizers is an important factor in many propulsion and power generating applications. To better quantify breakup and mixing in atomizing sprays, several diagnostic techniques have been developed to collect droplet information and spray statistics. Several optical based techniques, such as Ballistic Imaging and SLIPI have previously demonstrated qualitative measurements in optically dense sprays, however these techniques have produced limited quantitative information in the near injector region. To complement to these advances, a recent wave of developments utilizing synchrotron based x-rays have been successful been implemented facilitating the collection of quantitative measurements in optically dense sprays.

Radke, Christopher↗

Parameter Estimation in Astronomy with Poisson-Distributed Data: The (CHI)2(gamma) Statistic - 1

Applying the standard weighted mean formula, [Sigma (sub i)n(sub i)ssigma(sub i, sup -2)], to determine the weighted mean of data, n(sub i), drawn from a Poisson distribution, will, on average, underestimate the true mean by approx. 1 for all true mean values larger than approx.3 when the common assumption is made that the error of the i th observation is sigma(sub i) = max square root of n(sub i), 1).This small, but statistically significant offset, explains the long-known observation that chi-square minimization techniques which use the modified Neyman'chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub N) equivalent Sigma(sub i)((n(sub i) - y(sub i)(exp 2)) / max(n(sub i), 1), to compare Poisson - distributed data with model values, y(sub i), will typically predict a total number of counts that underestimates the true total by about 1 count per bin. Based on my finding that weighted mean of data drawn from a Poisson distribution can be determined using the formula [Sigma(sub i)[n(sub i) + min(n(sub i), 1)](n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1)] / [Sigma(sub i)(n(sub i) + 1)(exp -1))], I propose that a new chi(sub 2) statistic, chi(sup 2, sub gamma) equivalent, should always be used to analyze Poisson- distributed data in preference to the modified Neyman's chi(exp 2) statistic. I demonstrated the power and usefulness of,chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization by using two statistical fitting techniques and five chi(exp 2) statistics to analyze simulated X-ray power - low 15 - channel spectra with large and small counts per bin. I show that chi(sub gamma, sup 2) minimization with the Levenberg - Marquardt or Powell's method can produce excellent results (mean slope errors approx. less than 3%) with spectra having as few as 25 total counts.

Mighell, Kenneth J.↗

Characteristic eddy decomposition of turbulence in a channel

The proper orthogonal decomposition technique (Lumley's decomposition) is applied to the turbulent flow in a channel to extract coherent structures by decomposing the velocity field into characteristic eddies with random coefficients. In the homogeneous spatial directions, a generaliztion of the shot-noise expansion is used to determine the characteristic eddies. In this expansion, the Fourier coefficients of the characteristic eddy cannot be obtained from the second-order statistics. Three different techniques are used to determine the phases of these coefficients. They are based on: (1) the bispectrum, (2) a spatial compactness requirement, and (3) a functional continuity argument. Results from these three techniques are found to be similar in most respects. The implications of these techniques and the shot-noise expansion are discussed. The dominant eddy is found to contribute as much as 76 percent to the turbulent kinetic energy. In both 2D and 3D, the characteristic eddies consist of an ejection region straddled by streamwise vortices that leave the wall in the very short streamwise distance of about 100 wall units.

Moin, Parviz↗

Mass Detection for Heavy-Duty Vehicles using Gaussian Belief Propagation

Predicting vehicle mass is critical to accurately estimate energy use and emissions of commercial trucks. However, data from vehicle telematics is often not at sufficient temporal resolution or accuracy for use in model-based detection methods. In this work, a new statistical mass prediction technique is described for heavy-duty vehicles that incorporates the use Gaussian Belief Propagation (GBP) for probabilistic inference. Similar to Bayesian inference models, the GBP model typically requires less labeled training data than other contemporary machine learning techniques. First, a factor graph is constructed, and a set of Gaussian belief nodes with associated means and variances are fitted to the training data. To better handle noisy input data, the GBP mass prediction model utilizes a k-nearest factors (kNF) algorithm for probabilistic inference on unseen testing data. The proposed method is compared with a classical weighted k-nearest neighbors (kNN) regressor. This statistical kNF-GBP model works even with low-quantity, low-quality initial training data, while being capable of realtime mass estimation. Unlike the kNN regressor, the GBP model produces a measure of uncertainty with its predictions. The proposed method is validated using curve-sampled driving data collected from multiple cloud-connected Class 8 regional haul diesel trucks. Both the kNN regressor and the kNF-GBP mass prediction model were able to predict payload mass with coefficients of determination above 0.97 with minimal data preprocessing.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Fractal mechanisms and heart rate dynamics. Long-range correlations and their breakdown with disease

Under healthy conditions, the normal cardiac (sinus) interbeat interval fluctuates in a complex manner. Quantitative analysis using techniques adapted from statistical physics reveals the presence of long-range power-law correlations extending over thousands of heartbeats. This scale-invariant (fractal) behavior suggests that the regulatory system generating these fluctuations is operating far from equilibrium. In contrast, it is found that for subjects at high risk of sudden death (e.g., congestive heart failure patients), these long-range correlations break down. Application of fractal scaling analysis and related techniques provides new approaches to assessing cardiac risk and forecasting sudden cardiac death, as well as motivating development of novel physiologic models of systems that appear to be heterodynamic rather than homeostatic.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

acdc – Automated Contamination Detection and Confidence estimation for single-cell genome data

Abstract Background A major obstacle in single-cell sequencing is sample contamination with foreign DNA. To guarantee clean genome assemblies and to prevent the introduction of contamination into public databases, considerable quality control efforts are put into post-sequencing analysis. Contamination screening generally relies on reference-based methods such as database alignment or marker gene search, which limits the set of detectable contaminants to organisms with closely related reference species. As genomic coverage in the tree of life is highly fragmented, there is an urgent need for a reference-free methodology for contaminant identification in sequence data. Results We present acdc, a tool specifically developed to aid the quality control process of genomic sequence data. By combining supervised and unsupervised methods, it reliably detects both known and de novo contaminants. First, 16S rRNA gene prediction and the inclusion of ultrafast exact alignment techniques allow sequence classification using existing knowledge from databases. Second, reference-free inspection is enabled by the use of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include fast, non-linear dimensionality reduction of oligonucleotide signatures and subsequent clustering algorithms that automatically estimate the number of clusters. The latter also enables the removal of any contaminant, yielding a clean sample. Furthermore, given the data complexity and the ill-posedness of clustering, acdc employs bootstrapping techniques to provide statistically profound confidence values. Tested on a large number of samples from diverse sequencing projects, our software is able to quickly and accurately identify contamination. Results are displayed in an interactive user interface. Acdc can be run from the web as well as a dedicated command line application, which allows easy integration into large sequencing project analysis workflows. Conclusions Acdc can reliably detect contamination in single-cell genome data. In addition to database-driven detection, it complements existing tools by its unsupervised techniques, which allow for the detection of de novo contaminants. Our contribution has the potential to drastically reduce the amount of resources put into these processes, particularly in the context of limited availability of reference species. As single-cell genome data continues to grow rapidly, acdc adds to the toolkit of crucial quality assurance tools.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Operational Assimilation of GOES Data into a Mesoscale Model

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) within the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) since 1 November 1998. We performed the assimilation on a model grid centered over the Southeastern US. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique. Bulk verification statistics (BIAS and RMSE) of surface air temperature and relative humidity of more than 250 case days has been performed to date. Results show that assimilation of the satellite data results reduces both the bias and RMSE for simulations of surface air temperature and relative humidity. We are working with forecasters at the National Weather Service Forecast Office located in Birmingham, AL to evaluate the impact of the assimilation on precipitation forecasts. In addition, work is currently underway to determine the ability of both the assimilation technique and Early Eta to sense the significant changes that occur in both leaf expansion and soil moisture conditions during the Spring-Summer of 1999. This will be accomplished via examination of the simulated surface energy budgets from both modeling systems.

Lapenta, William↗

Oxygen Reduction Reaction Measurements on Platinum Electrocatalysts Utilizing Rotating Disk Electrode Technique: II. Influence of Ink Formulation, Catalyst Layer Uniformity and Thickness

Platinum electrocatalysts supported on high surface area and Vulcan carbon blacks (Pt/HSC, Pt/V) were characterized in rotating disk electrode (RDE) setups for electrochemical area (ECA) and oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) area specific activity (SA) and mass specific activity (MA) at 0.9 V. Films fabricated using several ink formulations and film-drying techniques were characterized for a statistically significant number of independent samples. The highest quality Pt/HSC films exhibited MA 870 ± 91 mA/mgPt and SA 864 ± 56 μA/cm 2 Pt while Pt/V had MA 706 ± 42 mA/mgPt and SA 1120 ± 70 μA/cm 2 Pt when measured in 0.1 M HClO 4 , 20 mV/s, 100 kPa O 2 and 23±2°C. An enhancement factor of 2.8 in themeasured SA was observable on eliminating Nafion ionomer and employing extremely thin, uniform films (~4.5 μg/cm 2 Pt) of Pt/HSC. The ECA for Pt/HSC (99 ± 7 m2/gPt) and Pt/V (65 ± 5 m 2 /gPt) were statistically invariant and insensitive to film uniformity/thickness/fabrication technique; accordingly, enhancements in MA are wholly attributable to increases in SA. Impedance measurements coupled with scanning electron microscopy were used to de-convolute the losses within the catalyst layer and ascribed to the catalyst layer resistance, oxygen diffusion, and sulfonate anion adsorption/blocking. The ramifications of these results for proton exchange membrane fuel cells have also been examined.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗