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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1997

Atmospheric Angular Momentum Fluctuations During 1979-1988 Simulated by Global Circulation Models

Changes in major global dynamical phenomena in the Earth's atmosphere are manifested in the time series of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), as determined directly from meteorological observations and indirectly from geodetic observations of small fluctuations in the rotation of the solid Earth which are proportional to length of day. AAM fluctuations are intimately linked with energetic processes throughout the whole atmosphere and also with the stresses at the Earth's surface produced largely by turbulent momentum transport in the oceanic and continental boundary layers and by the action of normal pressure forces on orographic features. A stringent test of any numerical global circulation model (GCM) is therefore provided by a quantitative assessment of its ability to represent AAM fluctuations on all relevant timescales, ranging from months to several years. From monthly data provided by the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) of the World Climate Research Programme, we have investigated seasonal and interannual fluctuations and the decadal mean in the axial component of AAM in 23 AMIP GCMs over the period 1979-1 988. The decadal means are generally well simulated, with the model median value (1.58 x 10(exp 26) kg sq m/s) being only 3.5% larger than the observed mean and with 10 of the models being within 5% of the observed. The seasonal cycle is well reproduced, with the median amplitude of the models' seasonal standard deviations being only 2.4% larger than observed. Half the seasonal amplitudes lie within 15% of the observed, and the median correlation found between the observed and model seasonal cycles is 0.95. The dominant seasonal error is an under- estimation of AAM during northern hemisphere winter associated with errors in the position of subtropical jets. Less robust are the modeled interannual variations, although the median correlation of 0.61 between model simulations and observed AAM is statistically significant. The two El Nino-Southern Oscillation events that occurred during the AMIP decade 1979-1988 have the expected positive AAM anomalies, although the AAM signature of the 1982-1983 event tends to be underestimated and that of the 1986-1987 event overestimated.

Hide, R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Updated System-Availability and Resource-Allocation Program

A second version of the Availability, Cost and Resource Allocation (ACARA) computer program has become available. The first version was reported in an earlier tech brief. To recapitulate: ACARA analyzes the availability, mean-time-between-failures of components, life-cycle costs, and scheduling of resources of a complex system of equipment. ACARA uses a statistical Monte Carlo method to simulate the failure and repair of components while complying with user-specified constraints on spare parts and resources. ACARA evaluates the performance of the system on the basis of a mathematical model developed from a block-diagram representation. The previous version utilized the MS-DOS operating system and could not be run by use of the most recent versions of the Windows operating system. The current version incorporates the algorithms of the previous version but is compatible with Windows and utilizes menus and a file-management approach typical of Windows-based software.

Viterna, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2011

On the Causes and Dynamics of the Early Twentieth Century North American Pluvial

The early twentieth century North American pluvial (1905-1917) was one of the most extreme wet periods of the last five hundred years and directly led to overly generous water allotments in the water-limited American West. Here we examine the causes and dynamics of the pluvial event using a combination of observation-based data sets and general circulation model (GCM) experiments. The character of the moisture surpluses during the pluvial differed by region, alternately driven by increased precipitation (the Southwest), low evaporation from cool temperatures (the Central Plains), or a combination of the two (the Pacific Northwest). Cool temperature anomalies covered much of the west and persisted through most months, part of a globally extensive period of cooler land and sea surface temperatures (SST). Circulation during boreal winter favored increased moisture import and precipitation in the southwest, while other regions and seasons were characterized by near normal or reduced precipitation. Anomalies in the mean circulation, precipitation, and SST fields are partially consistent with the relatively weak El Nino forcing during the pluvial, and also reflect the impact of positive departures in the Arctic Oscillation that occurred in ten of the thirteen pluvial winters. Differences between the reanalysis dataset, an independent statistical drought model, and GCM simulations highlight some of the remaining uncertainties in understanding the full extent of SST forcing of North American hydroclimatic variability.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Predicting Operator Execution Times Using CogTool

Researchers and developers of NextGen systems can use predictive human performance modeling tools as an initial approach to obtain skilled user performance times analytically, before system testing with users. This paper describes the CogTool models for a two pilot crew executing two different types of a datalink clearance acceptance tasks, and on two different simulation platforms. The CogTool time estimates for accepting and executing Required Time of Arrival and Interval Management clearances were compared to empirical data observed in video tapes and registered in simulation files. Results indicate no statistically significant difference between empirical data and the CogTool predictions. A population comparison test found no significant differences between the CogTool estimates and the empirical execution times for any of the four test conditions. We discuss modeling caveats and considerations for applying CogTool to crew performance modeling in advanced cockpit environments.

Santiago-Espada, Yamira↗
NASA NTRS2012

Monte Carlo Analysis of the Commissioning Phase Maneuvers of the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission will perform soil moisture content and freeze/thaw state observations from a low-Earth orbit. The observatory is scheduled to launch in October 2014 and will perform observations from a near-polar, frozen, and sun-synchronous Science Orbit for a 3-year data collection mission. At launch, the observatory is delivered to an Injection Orbit that is biased below the Science Orbit; the spacecraft will maneuver to the Science Orbit during the mission Commissioning Phase. The delta V needed to maneuver from the Injection Orbit to the Science Orbit is computed statistically via a Monte Carlo simulation; the 99th percentile delta V (delta V99) is carried as a line item in the mission delta V budget. This paper details the simulation and analysis performed to compute this figure and the delta V99 computed per current mission parameters.

Monte Carlo simulations↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A perceptual evaluation of the efficacy of Sound Exposure Level in the rating of annoyance to helicopter noise

A psychoacoustic test was performed that aimed to test how well Sound Exposure Level (SEL) is at indicating changes in annoyance to helicopter noise for simple changes in design as well as for realistic changes found from flight tests. In particular, SEL was evaluated for auralizations of optimized designs of rotor geometries when compared to a baseline design and for recordings that compare different helicopters and maneuvers. Paired comparisons consisted of the 10dB-down portion of flyovers, which is the same portion used to calculate SEL. When played at the same SEL, annoyance responses showed in which cases SEL is a good indicator as well as when other aspects not included in the calculation of SEL may be important. Annoyance responses for relative differences in SEL allowed the calculation of an Equal Annoyance Point, giving further insight to the performance of SEL. Confidence intervals calculated with Monte Carlo simulations showed when responses are statistically different from the equal SEL comparison and also gave an indication of the necessary reduction for designers to be confident that a low noise design is impactful or that a difference in rotorcraft or maneuver is perceptually favorable.

psychoacoustics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Perceptual Evaluation of the Efficacy of Sound Exposure Level in the Rating of Annoyance to Helicopter Noise

A psychoacoustic test was performed that aimed to test how well Sound Exposure Level (LAE) is at indicating changes in annoyance to helicopter noise for simple changes in design as well as for realistic changes found from flight tests. In particular, LAE was evaluated for auralizations of optimized designs of rotor geometries when compared to a baseline design and for recordings that compare different helicopters and maneuvers. Paired comparisons consisted of the 10dBA-down portion of flyovers, which is the same portion used to calculate LAE. When played at the same LAE, annoyance responses showed in which cases LAE is a good indicator as well as when other aspects not included in the calculation of LAE may be important. Annoyance responses for relative differences in LAE allowed the calculation of an Equal Annoyance Point, giving further insight to the performance of LAE. Confidence intervals calculated with Monte Carlo simulations showed when responses are statistically different from the equal LAE comparison and also gave an indication of the necessary reduction for designers to be confident that a low noise design is impactful or that a difference in rotorcraft or maneuver is perceptually favorable.

Matthew Alban Boucher↗
DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2022

Numerical error analysis of SOLPS-ITER simulations of EAST

Abstract Plasma edge simulations with codes like SOLPS-ITER are widely employed to interpret fusion experiments. However, numerical errors appearing in such simulations are rarely investigated, despite their potential large impact on simulation results. These errors consist of the statistical error and the bias, both resulting from the finite number of employed EIRENE Monte Carlo particles and incomplete convergence, and the discretization error due to the finite resolution of the computational grids. In this contribution, the resulting numerical errors on simulations of pure deuterium and neon seeded H-mode EAST discharges are examined. The statistical error can be kept small compared to other numerical error contributions by averaging the plasma profiles. This allows investigating the bias and discretization errors using Richardson extrapolation. It is shown that grid refinement and the number of employed Monte Carlo particles have the largest influence on the result, in agreement with similar studies of an ITER deuterium case. For the first time, numerical error bars on the entire simulated target profiles are determined showing that the largest numerical error is 17.9%, mainly due to the plasma grid discretization. On top, also numerical errors on simulated neutral pressures are investigated in detail, for which the statistical error is dominant. The analysis demonstrates which setup is needed to keep numerical errors limited: the SOLPS-ITER averaging procedure should be employed including enough EIRENE particles, and the involved grids should be sufficiently refined to reduce discretization errors.

Boeyaert, Dieter (ORCID:0000000309208660)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation of Particle-Material Interactions

This paper gives an overview of the particle transport theory essentials, the basics of particle-material interaction simulation, physical quantities needed to simulate particle transport and interactions in materials, Monte Carlo simulation flow, response of additive detectors, statistical weights and other techniques to minimize statistical errors. Effects in materials under irradiation, materials response related to component lifetime and performance are considered with a focus on high-energy and high-power accelerator applications. Implementation of simulation of particle-material interactions in the modern Monte Carlo codes along with the code s main features and results of recent benchmarking are described.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Retrieval of Precipitation Profiles from Multiresolution, Multifrequency, Active and Passive Microwave Observations

In this study, a technique for estimating vertical profiles of precipitation from multifrequency, multiresolution active and passive microwave observations is investigated. The technique is applicable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations and it is based on models that simulate high-resolution brightness temperatures as functions of observed reflectivity profiles and a parameter related to the rain drop-size-distribution. The modeled high-resolution brightness temperatures are used to determine normalized brightness temperature polarizations at the microwave radiometer resolution. An optimal estimation procedure is employed to minimize the differences between the simulated and observed normalized polarizations by adjusting the drop-size-distribution parameter. The impact of other unknowns that are not independent variables in the optimal estimation but affect the retrievals is minimized through statistical parameterizations derived from cloud model simulations. The retrieval technique is investigated using TRMM observations collected during the Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). These observations cover an area extending from 5 deg to deg N latitude and 166 deg to 172 deg E longitude from July to September 1999, and are coincident with various ground-based observations, facilitating a detailed analysis of the retrieved precipitation. Using the method developed in this study, precipitation estimates consistent with both the passive and active TRMM observations are obtained. Various parameters characterizing these estimates, i.e. the rain rate, the precipitation water content, the drop-size-distribution intercept, and the mass weighted mean drop diameter, are in good qualitative agreement with independent experimental and theoretical estimates. Combined rain estimates are in general higher than the official TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) only estimates for the area and the period considered in the study. Ground-based precipitation estimates, derived from an analysis of rain gauge and ground radar data, are in better agreement with the combined estimates than with the TRMM PR-only estimates, which suggests that information useful for improving the radar-only estimates is contained in the brightness temperature data.

Grecu, Mircea↗
NASA NTRS1993

Cold dark matter and degree-scale cosmic microwave background anisotropy statistics after COBE

We conduct a Monte Carlo simulation of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy in the UCSB South Pole 1991 degree-scale experiment. We examine cold dark matter cosmology with large-scale structure seeded by the Harrison-Zel'dovich hierarchy of Gaussian-distributed primordial inhomogeneities normalized to the COBE-DMR measurement of large-angle CMB anisotropy. We find it statistically implausible (in the sense of low cumulative probability F lower than 5 percent, of not measuring a cosmological delta-T/T signal) that the degree-scale cosmological CMB anisotropy predicted in such models could have escaped a detection at the level of sensitivity achieved in the South Pole 1991 experiment.

Gorski, Krzysztof M.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Propagation modeling for land mobile satellite systems

A simplified empirical model for predicting primary fade statistics for a vegetatively shadowed mobile satellite signal is presented, and predictions based on the model are presented using propagation parameter values from experimental data. Results from the empirical model are used to drive a propagation simulator to produce the secondary fade statistics of average fade duration.

Barts, R. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2011

FDR doesn't Tell the Whole Story: Joint Influence of Effect Size and Covariance Structure on the Distribution of the False Discovery Proportions

As part of a 2009 Annals of Statistics paper, Gavrilov, Benjamini, and Sarkar report results of simulations that estimated the false discovery rate (FDR) for equally correlated test statistics using a well-known multiple-test procedure. In our study we estimate the distribution of the false discovery proportion (FDP) for the same procedure under a variety of correlation structures among multiple dependent variables in a MANOVA context. Specifically, we study the mean (the FDR), skewness, kurtosis, and percentiles of the FDP distribution in the case of multiple comparisons that give rise to correlated non-central t-statistics when results at several time periods are being compared to baseline. Even if the FDR achieves its nominal value, other aspects of the distribution of the FDP depend on the interaction between signed effect sizes and correlations among variables, proportion of true nulls, and number of dependent variables. We show examples where the mean FDP (the FDR) is 10% as designed, yet there is a surprising probability of having 30% or more false discoveries. Thus, in a real experiment, the proportion of false discoveries could be quite different from the stipulated FDR.

Feiveson, Alan H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Precise Modeling of a Complex Solenoidal Magnetic Field Using a Combination of Analytic Functions and a PINN

We demonstrate an iterative approach to modeling a sparsely measured magnetic field in a large-bore solenoid. This approach uses a hybrid of traditional and machine learning techniques. The traditional technique is a linear least-squares fit using a series solution to Laplace's equation, while the machine learning technique involves the training of a physics-informed neural network (PINN) on the least-squares fit residuals. We use a newly defined activation function "DELTAsnake," a modification to the snake activation function proposed by Ziyin et al. that allows for stronger curvature and non-monotonicity. The combined model approximately obeys Maxwell's equations to a level sufficient for producing high quality physics simulations and analysis. Our approach is applied to a highly realistic calculation of the expected magnetic field in the Mu2e experiment's Detector Solenoid which includes a simple model for the expected statistical measurement uncertainties. Using ten toy measurement simulations, we demonstrate the capabilities of our model in comparison to the least-squares method alone; the least-squares method alone results in a reduced chi-squared statistic of ${2.15 \pm 0.01}$, while our approach improves the reduced chi-square to ${1.034 \pm 0.005}$. Furthermore, for an average toy simulation, we show that the range of the RMS of the three field component residuals reduces from ${0.07-0.37}$ Gauss to ${0.05-0.07}$ Gauss. We find that this novel method is robust against a realistic systematic uncertainty deriving from Hall probe calibration bias and can be used to significantly reduce the number of measurements required to achieve an accurate model.

Kampa, Cole [Caltech] (ORCID:0000000192972920)↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical analysis of flight times for space shuttle ferry flights

Markov chain and Monte Carlo analysis techniques are applied to the simulated Space Shuttle Orbiter Ferry flights to obtain statistical distributions of flight time duration between Edwards Air Force Base and Kennedy Space Center. The two methods are compared, and are found to be in excellent agreement. The flights are subjected to certain operational and meteorological requirements, or constraints, which cause eastbound and westbound trips to yield different results. Persistence of events theory is applied to the occurrence of inclement conditions to find their effect upon the statistical flight time distribution. In a sensitivity test, some of the constraints are varied to observe the corresponding changes in the results.

Graves, M. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of A Simulation Environment for Future Space Traffic Management

This study presents initial results of a newly developed simulation environment intendedto explore and assess future Space Traffic Management (STM) scenarios. The number ofnew Resident Space Objects (RSOs) in near-Earth orbit is expected to increase significantlywith the expected future deployment of a number of large constellations. These futurescenarios involve the addition of many tens of thousands of new RSOs, making the analysisinto their impact on collision risk extend beyond what traditional data-mining of present-dayconjunction data can reliably predict. To address this, a robust simulation environment wasdeveloped that implements a full force-model for orbit propagation, and computes continuousall-on-all conjunction statistics for arbitrarily large catalog sizes and simulation timeframes.Collision avoidance and station-keeping maneuvers can be optionally implemented based onconfigurable user inputs including physical characteristics and spacecraft meta-data (e.g.,commercial/government, owner country, etc.). Constellation build-out and de-orbit scenarioswere also implemented and modeled based on real-data analysis. Validation of the simulationresults was a critical component of the simulation development, and was done using the currentcatalog with comparisons against both public and internal NASA data-sets. The comparisonsdemonstrate that, with the appropriate settings, representative levels of conjunction ratesand probabilities can be obtained, providing confidence that the simulation tool can generatemeaningful outcomes for test scenarios. As an initial demonstration of the tool’s capabilities,year-long simulations with station-keeping were conducted to examine conjunction historiesusing both the current object catalog (5800 active satellites) and a hypothetical 60,000 objectscenario involving five potential large constellations. Output metrics include the number ofconjunction events, estimates of collision consequence (fragmentation), delta-V maneuver costs,and the probability of at least one collision occurring. The results highlight the potential thatthe simulation tool has for incorporating and running performance comparisons between, e.g.,various sets of maneuver guidelines, industry norms, and definitions of risk, with the overallobjective of providing actionable data to STM policy makers. The presentation will providean overview of the simulation development and validation efforts, as well as a discussion ofobservations gathered from the initial simulations performed.

conjunction assessment↗