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At least 613 records · Page 34

Breaking Computational Barriers: Real-time Analysis and Optimization with Large-scale Nonlinear Models via Model Reduction

Model reduction for dynamical systems is a promising approach for reducing the computational cost of large-scale physics-based simulations to enable high-fidelity models to be used in many- query (e.g., Bayesian inference) and near-real-time (e.g., fast-turnaround simulation) contexts. While model reduction works well for specialized problems such as linear time-invariant systems, it is much more difficult to obtain accurate, stable, and efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) for systems with general nonlinearities. This report describes several advances that enable nonlinear reduced-order models (ROMs) to be deployed in a variety of time-critical settings. First, we present an error bound for the Gauss-Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) nonlinear model reduction technique. This bound allows the state-space error for the GNAT method to be quantified when applied with the backward Euler time-integration scheme. Second, we present a methodology for preserving classical Lagrangian structure in nonlinear model reduction. This technique guarantees that important properties--such as energy conservation and symplectic time-evolution maps--are preserved when performing model reduction for models described by a Lagrangian formalism (e.g., molecular dynamics, structural dynamics). Third, we present a novel technique for decreasing the temporal complexity --defined as the number of Newton-like iterations performed over the course of the simulation--by exploiting time-domain data. Fourth, we describe a novel method for refining projection-based reduced-order models a posteriori using a goal-oriented framework similar to mesh-adaptive h -refinement in finite elements. The technique allows the ROM to generate arbitrarily accurate solutions, thereby providing the ROM with a 'failsafe' mechanism in the event of insufficient training data. Finally, we present the reduced-order model error surrogate (ROMES) method for statistically quantifying reduced- order-model errors. This enables ROMs to be rigorously incorporated in uncertainty-quantification settings, as the error model can be treated as a source of epistemic uncertainty. This work was completed as part of a Truman Fellowship appointment. We note that much additional work was performed as part of the Fellowship. One salient project is the development of the Trilinos-based model-reduction software module Razor , which is currently bundled with the Albany PDE code and currently allows nonlinear reduced-order models to be constructed for any application supported in Albany. Other important projects include the following: 1. ROMES-equipped ROMs for Bayesian inference: K. Carlberg, M. Drohmann, F. Lu (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), M. Morzfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2. ROM-enabled Krylov-subspace recycling: K. Carlberg, V. Forstall (University of Maryland), P. Tsuji, R. Tuminaro. 3. A pseudo balanced POD method using only dual snapshots: K. Carlberg, M. Sarovar. 4. An analysis of discrete v. continuous optimality in nonlinear model reduction: K. Carlberg, M. Barone, H. Antil (George Mason University). Journal articles for these projects are in progress at the time of this writing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor comparison characteristics

Advantages and limitations of the AVHRR multichannel sea surface temperature (MCSST) detecting technique using NOAA satellites are discussed. The error characteristics of MCSST's from statistical tables and regional AVHRR error characteristics from global anomaly charts are also discussed. Some soruces of errors and positive findings are reviewed.

Mcclain, E. P.↗

Methods for local gravity field approximation

The most widely known modern method for estimating gravity field values from observed data is least-squares collocation. Its advantages are that it can make estimates at arbitrary locations based on irregularly spaced observations, and that it makes use of statistical information about errors in the input data while providing corresponding information about the quality of the output estimates. Disadvantages of collocation include the necessity of inverting square matrices of dimension equal to the number of data values and the need to assume covariance models for the gravity field and the data errors. Fourier methods are an important alternative to collocation; having the advantage of greater computational efficiency, but requiring data estimates to be on a regular grid and not using or providing statistical accuracy information. The GEOFAST algorithm is an implementation of collocation that achieves high computational efficiency by transforming the estimation equations into the frequency domain where an accurate approximation may be made to reduce the workload. The forward and inverse Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) are utilized. The accuracy and computational efficiency of the GEOFAST algorithm is demonstrated using two sets of synthetic gravity data: marine gravity for an ocean trench region including wavelengths longer than 200 km; and local land gravity containing wavelengths as short as 5 km. These results are discussed along with issues such as the advantages of first removing reference field models before carrying out the estimation algorithm.

Sailor, R. V.↗

WE-A-17A-09: Exploiting Electromagnetic Technologies for Real-Time Seed Drop Position Validation in Permanent Implant Brachytherapy

Purpose: To report on preliminary results validating the performance of a specially designed LDR brachytherapy needle prototype possessing both electromagnetic (EM) tracking and seed drop detection abilities. Methods: An EM hollow needle prototype has been designed and constructed in collaboration with research partner Philips Healthcare. The needle possesses conventional 3D tracking capabilities, along with a novel seed drop detection mechanism exploiting local changes of electromagnetic properties generated by the passage of seeds in the needle's embedded sensor coils. These two capabilities are exploited by proprietary engineering and signal processing techniques to generate seed drop position estimates in real-time treatment delivery. The electromagnetic tracking system (EMTS) used for the experiment is the NDI Aurora Planar Field Generator. The experiment consisted of dropping a total of 35 seeds in a prismatic agarose phantom, and comparing the 3D seed drop positions of the EMTS to those obtained by an image analysis of subsequent micro-CT scans. Drop position error computations and statistical analysis were performed after a 3D registration of the two seed distributions. Results: Of the 35 seeds dropped in the phantom, 32 were properly detected by the needle prototype. Absolute drop position errors among the detected seeds ranged from 0.5 to 4.8 mm with mean and standard deviation values of 1.6 and 0.9 mm, respectively. Error measurements also include undesirable and uncontrollable effects such as seed motion upon deposition. The true accuracy performance of the needle prototype is therefore underestimated. Conclusion: This preliminary study demonstrates the potential benefits of EM technologies in detecting the passage of seeds in a hollow needle as a means of generating drop position estimates in real-time treatment delivery. Such tools could therefore represent a potentially interesting addition to existing brachytherapy protocols for rapid dosimetry validation. Equipments and fundings for this project were provided by Philips Medical.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

RELICS: Strong Lens Models for Five Galaxy Clusters from the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey

Strong gravitational lensing by galaxy clusters magnifies background galaxies, enhancing our ability to discover statistically significant samples of galaxies at ${\boldsymbol{z}}\gt 6$, in order to constrain the high-redshift galaxy luminosity functions. In this study, we present the first five lens models out of the Reionization Lensing Cluster Survey (RELICS) Hubble Treasury Program, based on new HST WFC3/IR and ACS imaging of the clusters RXC J0142.9+4438, Abell 2537, Abell 2163, RXC J2211.7–0349, and ACT-CLJ0102–49151. The derived lensing magnification is essential for estimating the intrinsic properties of high-redshift galaxy candidates, and properly accounting for the survey volume. We report on new spectroscopic redshifts of multiply imaged lensed galaxies behind these clusters, which are used as constraints, and detail our strategy to reduce systematic uncertainties due to lack of spectroscopic information. In addition, we quantify the uncertainty on the lensing magnification due to statistical and systematic errors related to the lens modeling process, and find that in all but one cluster, the magnification is constrained to better than 20% in at least 80% of the field of view, including statistical and systematic uncertainties. The five clusters presented in this paper span the range of masses and redshifts of the clusters in the RELICS program. We find that they exhibit similar strong lensing efficiencies to the clusters targeted by the Hubble Frontier Fields within the WFC3/IR field of view. Outputs of the lens models are made available to the community through the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A 6% measurement of the Hubble parameter at z ∼0.45: direct evidence of the epoch of cosmic re-acceleration

Deriving the expansion history of the Universe is a major goal of modern cosmology. To date, the most accurate measurements have been obtained with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe) and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), providing evidence for the existence of a transition epoch at which the expansion rate changes from decelerated to accelerated. However, these results have been obtained within the framework of specific cosmological models that must be implicitly or explicitly assumed in the measurement. It is therefore crucial to obtain measurements of the accelerated expansion of the Universe independently of assumptions on cosmological models. Here we exploit the unprecedented statistics provided by the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS, [1-3]) Data Release 9 to provide new constraints on the Hubble parameter H ( z ) using the cosmic chronometers approach. We extract a sample of more than 130000 of the most massive and passively evolving galaxies, obtaining five new cosmology-independent H ( z ) measurements in the redshift range 0.3 < z < 0.5, with an accuracy of ∼11–16% incorporating both statistical and systematic errors. Once combined, these measurements yield a 6% accuracy constraint of H ( z = 0.4293) = 91.8 ± 5.3 km/s/Mpc. The new data are crucial to provide the first cosmology-independent determination of the transition redshift at high statistical significance, measuring z {sub t} = 0.4 ± 0.1, and to significantly disfavor the null hypothesis of no transition between decelerated and accelerated expansion at 99.9% confidence level. This analysis highlights the wide potential of the cosmic chronometers approach: it permits to derive constraints on the expansion history of the Universe with results competitive with standard probes, and most importantly, being the estimates independent of the cosmological model, it can constrain cosmologies beyond—and including—the ΛCDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Errors induced in the measurement and azimuth directions of morphological features imaged on oblique Lunar Orbiter photographs

Many quantitative lunar studies, e.g., the morphology and dimensions of craters, crater density and distribution, have been performed using oblique Lunar Orbiter photographs. If the inherent change in scale and azimuth direction of features imaged on these photographs are not corrected, the measurement can be in considerable error and the resulting statistical inferences may be invalid. The magnitude of this error is dependent upon: the depression angle of the camera, the flight height of the spacecraft, the focal length of the camera, and the position and orientation of the object on the ground. The errors introduced by using unrectified oblique photographs as though they were vertical photographs are examined for several Lunar Orbiter high resolution NASA LRC Enhancement photographic prints taken at various depression angles.

Siegal, B. S.↗

Round-off errors in cutting plane algorithms based on the revised simplex procedure

This report statistically analyzes computational round-off errors associated with the cutting plane approach to solving linear integer programming problems. Cutting plane methods require that the inverse of a sequence of matrices be computed. The problem basically reduces to one of minimizing round-off errors in the sequence of inverses. Two procedures for minimizing this problem are presented, and their influence on error accumulation is statistically analyzed. One procedure employs a very small tolerance factor to round computed values to zero. The other procedure is a numerical analysis technique for reinverting or improving the approximate inverse of a matrix. The results indicated that round-off accumulation can be effectively minimized by employing a tolerance factor which reflects the number of significant digits carried for each calculation and by applying the reinversion procedure once to each computed inverse. If 18 significant digits plus an exponent are carried for each variable during computations, then a tolerance value of 0.1 x 10 to the minus 12th power is reasonable.

Moore, J. E.↗

Mapping electrodynamic features of the high-latitude ionosphere from localized observations - Technique

This paper describes a novel procedure for mapping high-latitude electric fields and currents and their associated magnetic variations, using sets of localized observational data derived from different types of measurements. The technique provides a formalism for incorporating simultaneously such different classes of data as electric fields from radars and satellites, electric currents from radars, and magnetic perturbations at the ground and at satellite heights; the technique also uses available statistical information on the averages and variances of electrodynamic fields. The technique provides a more rigorous way of quantitatively estimating high-latitude electric field and current patterns than other methods and has a capability to quantify the errors in the mapped fields, based on the distribution of available data, their errors, and the statistical variances of the fields. The technique is illustrated by an application to a substorm which was analyzed by Kamide et al. (1982) by an earlier technique.

Richmond, A. D.↗

Physical-mass calculation of ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonance parameters via π π and K π scattering amplitudes from lattice QCD

We present our study of the ρ ( 770 ) and K * ( 892 ) resonances from lattice quantum chromodynamics (QCD) employing domain-wall fermions at physical quark masses. We determine the finite-volume energy spectrum in various momentum frames and obtain phase-shift parametrizations via the Lüscher formalism and as a final step the complex resonance poles of the π π and K π elastic scattering amplitudes via an analytical continuation of the models. By sampling a large number of representative sets of underlying energy-level fits, we also assign a systematic uncertainty to our final results. This is a significant extension to data-driven analysis methods that have been used in lattice QCD to date, due to the two-step nature of the formalism. Our final pole positions, M + i Γ / 2 , with all statistical and systematic errors exposed, are M K * = 893 ( 2 ) ( 8 ) ( 54 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ K * = 51 ( 2 ) ( 11 ) ( 3 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the K * ( 892 ) resonance and M ρ = 796 ( 5 ) ( 15 ) ( 48 ) ( 2 ) MeV and Γ ρ = 192 ( 10 ) ( 28 ) ( 12 ) ( 0 ) MeV for the ρ ( 770 ) resonance. The four differently grouped sources of uncertainties are, in the order of occurrence: statistical, data-driven systematic, an estimation of systematic effects beyond our computation (dominated by the fact that we employ a single lattice spacing), and the error from the scale-setting uncertainty on our ensemble. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of classical statistics on thermal conductivity predictions of BAs and diamond using machine learning molecular dynamics

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have greatly enhanced molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, achieving near-first-principles accuracy in thermal conductivity studies. In this work, we reveal that this accuracy, observed in BAs and diamond at sub-Debye temperatures, stems from an accidental error cancelation: classical statistics overestimates specific heat while underestimating phonon lifetimes, balancing out in thermal conductivity predictions. However, this balance is disrupted when isotopes are introduced, leading MLIP-based MD to significantly underpredict thermal conductivity compared to experiments and quantum statistics-based Boltzmann transport equation. This discrepancy arises not from classical statistics affecting phonon–isotope scattering rates but from its impact on the interplay between phonon–isotope and phonon–phonon scattering in the normal scattering-dominated BAs and diamond. In conclusion, this work underscores the limitations of MLIP-based MD for thermal conductivity studies at sub-Debye temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Derivation and Application of a Global Albedo yielding an Optical Brightness To Physical Size Transformation Free of Systematic Errors

Orbital object data acquired via optical telescopes can play a crucial role in accurately defining the space environment. Radar systems probe the characteristics of small debris by measuring the reflected electromagnetic energy from an object of the same order of size as the wavelength of the radiation. This signal is affected by electrical conductivity of the bulk of the debris object, as well as its shape and orientation. Optical measurements use reflected solar radiation with wavelengths much smaller than the size of the objects. Just as with radar, the shape and orientation of an object are important, but we only need to consider the surface electrical properties of the debris material (i.e., the surface albedo), not the bulk electromagnetic properties. As a result, these two methods are complementary in that they measure somewhat independent physical properties to estimate the same thing, debris size. Short arc optical observations such as are typical of NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) give enough information to estimate an Assumed Circular Orbit (ACO) and an associated range. This information, combined with the apparent magnitude, can be used to estimate an "absolute" brightness (scaled to a fixed range and phase angle). This absolute magnitude is what is used to estimate debris size. However, the shape and surface albedo effects make the size estimates subject to systematic and random errors, such that it is impossible to ascertain the size of an individual object with any certainty. However, as has been shown with radar debris measurements, that does not preclude the ability to estimate the size distribution of a number of objects statistically. After systematic errors have been eliminated (range errors, phase function assumptions, photometry) there remains a random geometric albedo distribution that relates object size to absolute magnitude. Measurements by the LMT of a subset of tracked debris objects with sizes estimated from their radar cross sections indicate that the random variations in the albedo follow a log-normal distribution quite well. In addition, this distribution appears to be independent of object size over a considerable range in size. Note that this relation appears to hold for debris only, where the shapes and other properties are not primarily the result of human manufacture, but of random processes. With this information in hand, it now becomes possible to estimate the actual size distribution we are sampling from. We have identified two characteristics of the space debris population that make this process tractable and by extension have developed a methodology for performing the transformation.

Mulrooney, Dr. Mark K.↗

Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) onboard attitude determination using a Kalman filter

The Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) requires a highly accurate knowledge of its attitude to accomplish its mission. Propagation of the attitude state using gyro measurements is not sufficient to meet the accuracy requirements, and must be supplemented by a observer/compensation process to correct for dynamics and observation anomalies. The process of amending the attitude state utilizes a well known method, the discrete Kalman Filter. This study is a sensitivity analysis of the discrete Kalman Filter as implemented in the UARS Onboard Computer (OBC). The stability of the Kalman Filter used in the normal on-orbit control mode within the OBC, is investigated for the effects of corrupted observations and nonlinear errors. Also, a statistical analysis on the residuals of the Kalman Filter is performed. These analysis is based on simulations using the UARS Dynamics Simulator (UARSDSIM) and compared against attitude requirements as defined by General Electric (GE). An independent verification of expected accuracies is performed using the Attitude Determination Error Analysis System (ADEAS).

Garrick, Joseph↗

Precision and Accuracy in PDV and VISAR

This is a technical report discussing our current level of understanding of a wide and varying distribution of uncertainties in velocity results from Photonic Doppler Velocimetry in its application to gas gun experiments. Using propagation of errors methods with statistical averaging of photon number fluctuation in the detected photocurrent and subsequent addition of electronic recording noise, we learn that the velocity uncertainty in VISAR can be written in closed form. For PDV, the non-linear frequency transform and peak fitting methods employed make propagation of errors estimates notoriously more difficult to write down in closed form expect in the limit of constant velocity and low time resolution (large analysis-window width). An alternative method of error propagation in PDV is to use Monte Carlo methods with a simulation of the time domain signal based on results from the spectral domain. A key problem for Monte Carlo estimation for an experiment is a correct estimate of that portion of the time-domain noise associated with the peak-fitting region-of-interesting in the spectral domain. Using short-time Fourier transformation spectral analysis and working with the phase dependent real and imaginary parts allows removal of amplitude-noise cross terms that invariably show up when working with correlation-based methods or FFT power spectra. Estimation of the noise associated with a given spectral region of interest is then possible. At this level of progress, we learn that Monte Carlo trials with random recording noise and initial (uncontrolled) phase yields velocity uncertainties that are not as large as those observed. In a search for additional noise sources, a speckleinterference modulation contribution with off axis rays was investigated, and was found to add a velocity variation beyond that from the recording noise (due to random interference between off axis rays), but in our experiments the speckle modulation precision was not as important as the recording noise precision. But from these investigations we do appreciate that the velocity-uncertainty itself has a wide distribution of values that varies with signal-amplitude modulation (is not a single value). To provide a rough rule of thumb for the velocity uncertainty, we computed the average of the relative standard deviation distributions from 60 recorded traces (with distributions of uncertainties roughly between 0.1 % to 1 % in each trace) and found a mean of the distribution of uncertainties for our experiments is not better than 0.4 % at an analysis window width of 5 ns (although for brief intervals it can be as good as 0.1 %). Further imagination and testing may be needed to reveal other possible hydrodynamics-related sources of velocity error in PDV.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Orbital error analysis for comet Encke, 1980

Before a particular comet is selected as a flyby target, the following criteria should be considered in determining its ephemeris uncertainty: (1) A target comet should have good observability during the apparition of the proposed intercept; and (2) A target comet should have a good observational history. Several well observed and consecutive apparitions allow an accurate determination of a comet's mean motion and nongravitational parameters. Using these criteria, along with statistical and empirical error analyses, it has been demonstrated that the 1980 apparition of comet Encke is an excellent opportunity for a cometary flyby space probe. For this particular apparition, a flyby to within 1,000 km of comet Encke seems possible without the use of sophisticated and expensive onboard navigation instrumentation.

Yeomans, D. K.↗

Systematic error analysis in the absolute hydrogen gas jet polarimeter at RHIC

The Polarized Atomic Hydrogen Gas Jet Target polarimeter (HJET) is operated at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) since 2004 to measure the absolute polarization of each colliding proton beam. Polarimeter detectors and data acquisition were upgraded in 2015 to increase the solid angle, energy range, and to improve the energy and time resolution. These upgrades along with an improved beam intensity and polarization allowed us to greatly reduce the statistical and systematic errors for the proton polarization measurements in RHIC Runs 15 (E beam = 100 GeV) and 17 (255 GeV). For a typical 8 hour RHIC store, the measured proton beam average polarization was about P beam ~ 55 ± 2.0 stat ± 0.3 syst %. The elastic pp analyzing power, AN(t)~0.04, was determined with a precision of about |δA N (t)|~0.0002 in the momentum transfer squared range 0.001<-t<0.020 GeV 2 . In this paper we present a detailed systematic error analysis of the polarization measurements at HJET. Perspectives of using the HJET based absolute polarimeters in the future Electron Ion Collider (EIC) will be also discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Comparison of rate one-half, equivalent constraint length 24, binary convolutional codes for use with sequential decoding on the deep-space channel

Virtually all previously-suggested rate 1/2 binary convolutional codes with KE = 24 are compared. Their distance properties are given; and their performance, both in computation and in error probability, with sequential decoding on the deep-space channel is determined by simulation. Recommendations are made both for the choice of a specific KE = 24 code as well as for codes to be included in future coding standards for the deep-space channel. A new result given in this report is a method for determining the statistical significance of error probability data when the error probability is so small that it is not feasible to perform enough decoding simulations to obtain more than a very small number of decoding errors.

Massey, J. L.↗