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At least 613 records · Page 34

O2 Herzberg State Reaction with N2: A Possible Source of Stratospheric N2O

The goal of this one-year investigation was to determine whether N2O is formed in atmospherically significant quantities by the reaction of vibrationally excited levels of the O2((A3 Sigma(sub u)(sup +)) state with nitrogen. O2(A3 Sigma(sub u)(sup +)) is made throughout the upper stratosphere in considerable amounts by solar photoabsorption, and only a very small reactive yield is necessary for this mechanism to be a major N2O source. By long-term 245-252 nm irradiation of O2/N2 mixtures on- and off-resonance with absorption lines in the O2(A3 Sigma(sub u)(sup +) - X3 Sigma(sub g)(sup -)) transition, followed by N2O analysis by frequency-modulated diode laser absorption spectroscopy, we determined an upper limit for the N2O yield of the candidate reaction. This limit, 3 x 10(exp -5), eliminates O2(A3 Sigma(sub u)(sup +)) + N2 as a significant channel for the generation of stratospheric N2O. In further measurements, we established that N2O is stable under our photolysis conditions, showing that the small amounts of ozone generated from the reaction of O2(A) and O2 do not indirectly lead to destruction of N2O.

Slanger, Tom G.↗

Radial Velocity Detection of Extra-Solar Planetary Systems

The McDonald Observatory Planetary Search (MOPS) was designed to search for Jovian-mass planets in orbit around solar-type stars by making high-precision measurements of the Radial Velocity (RV) of a star, to attempt to detect the reflex orbital motion of the star around the star-planet barycenter. In our solar system, the velocity of the Sun around the Sun-Jupiter barycenter averages 12.3 m/ s. The MOPS survey started operation in September 1987, and searches 36 bright, nearby, solar-type dwarfs to 10 m/s precision. The survey was started using telluric O2 absorption lines as the velocity reference metric. Observations use the McDonald Observatory 2.7-m Harlan Smith Telescope coude spectrograph with the six-foot camera. This spectrograph configuration isolates a single order of the echelle grating on a Texas Instruments 800 x 800 CCD. The telluric line method gave us a routine radial velocity precision of about 15 m/s for stars down to about 5-th magnitude. However, the data obtained with this technique suffered from some source of long-term systematic errors, which was probably the intrinsic velocity variability of the terrestrial atmosphere, i.e. winds. In order to eliminate this systematic error and to improve our overall measurement precision, we installed a stabilized I2 gas absorption cell as the velocity metric for the MOPS in October 1990. In use at the telescope, the cell is placed directly in front of the spectrograph entrance slit, with starlight passing through the cell. The use of this sealed stabilized I2 cell removes potential problems with possible long-term drifts in the velocity metric. The survey now includes a sample of 36 nearby F, G, and K type stars of luminosity class V or IV-V.

Cochran, William D.↗

BeppoSAX Observation of NGC 7582: Constraints on the X-Ray Absorber

This paper presents a BeppoSAX observation of NGC 7582 made during 1998 November and an optical spectrum taken in 1998 October. The new X-ray data reveal a previously unknown hard X-ray component in NGC 7582, peaking close to 20 keV. Rapid variability is observed with correlated changes in the 5-10 and 13-60 keV bands indicating that a single continuum component, produced by the active nucleus, provides the, dominant flux across both bands. Comparison between RXTE and BeppoSAX data reveals changes in the 2 - 10 keV flux on timescales of months. Changes in the nuclear X-ray flux appear unrelated to the gradual decline in optical flux noted since the high-state in 1998 July. The 0.5 - 2 keV flux of NGC 7582 is not significantly variable within the BeppoSAX observation, but has brightened by a factor of approximately 2 since the ASCA observation of 1994. While there is some concern about contamination from spatially-unresolved sources, the long-term variability in soft X-ray flux seems most likely associated with the nucleus or an event within the host galaxy of NGC 7582. The 2 - 100 keV spectrum is well fit by a powerlaw of photon index Gamma = 1.95(sup +0.09, sub -0.18) steeper by Delta.Gamma approximately equal 0.40 than the index during the 1994 ASCA observation. The X-ray continuum is attenuated by a thick absorber of N(H) approximately 1.6 x10(exp 24)/sq cm covering approximately 60(sup +10%, sub -14%) of the nucleus plus a screen with N(sub H) approximately 1.4 x 10(exp 23)/ sq cm covering the entire nucleus. Comparison of the BeppoSAX and ASCA spectra shows an increase in the full screen by Delta.N(sub H) approximately equal 7 x 10(exp 22)/sq cm since 1994, confirming the absorption variability found by Xue et al. The increase in soft X-ray flux between 1994 and 1998 is consistent with the appearance of holes in the full screen allowing approximately < 1% of the nuclear flux to escape, and producing some clear lines-of-sight to the broad-line-region. The data are also consistent with the scenario suggested by Aretxaga et al, of the radiative onset of a type IIn supernova causing the observed optical change in NGC 7582.

Turner, T. J.↗

Jet Noise Modeling for Coannular Nozzles Including the Effects of Chevrons

Development of good predictive models for jet noise has always been plagued by the difficulty in obtaining good quality data over a wide range of conditions in different facilities.We consider such issues very carefully in selecting data to be used in developing our model. Flight effects are of critical importance, and none of the means of determining them are without significant problems. Free-jet flight simulation facilities are very useful, and can provide meaningful data so long as they can be analytically transformed to the flight frame of reference. In this report we show that different methodologies used by NASA and industry to perform this transformation produce very different results, especially in the rear quadrant; this compels us to rely largely on static data to develop our model, but we show reasonable agreement with simulated flight data when these transformation issues are considered. A persistent problem in obtaining good quality data is noise generated in the experimental facility upstream of the test nozzle: valves, elbows, obstructions, and especially the combustor can contribute significant noise, and much of this noise is of a broadband nature, easily confused with jet noise. Muffling of these sources is costly in terms of size as well as expense, and it is particularly difficult in flight simulation facilities, where compactness of hardware is very important, as discussed by Viswanathan (Ref. 13). We feel that the effects of jet density on jet mixing noise may have been somewhat obscured by these problems, leading to the variable density exponent used in most jet noise prediction procedures including our own. We investigate this issue, applying Occam s razor, (e.g., Ref. 14), in a search for the simplest physically meaningful model that adequately describes the observed phenomena. In a similar vein, we see no reason to reject the Lighthill approach; it provides a very solid basis upon which to build a predictive procedure, as we believe we demonstrate in this report. Another feature of our approach is that the analyses are all conducted with lossless spectra, rather than Standard Day spectra, as is often done in industry. We feel that it is important to isolate the effects of as many physical processes as practical. Atmospheric attenuation can then be included using the relations developed for NASA by Shields and Bass (Ref. 15), which are available in both FOOTPR and ANOPP. The current approach to coannular jet noise prediction used in FOOTPR is reported in Reference 16, which updates the earlier conventional-velocity-profile (CVP, Ref. 17) and inverted-velocity-profile (IVP, Ref. 18) models.

Stone, James R.↗

Molecular indicators for palaeoenvironmental change in a Messinian evaporitic sequence (Vena del Gesso, Italy). II: High-resolution variations in abundances and 13C contents of free and sulphur-bound carbon skeletons in a single marl bed

The extractable organic matter of 10 immature samples from a marl bed of one evaporitic cycle of the Vena del Gesso sediments (Gessoso-solfifera Fm., Messinian, Italy) was analyzed quantitatively for free hydrocarbons and organic sulphur compounds. Nickel boride was used as a desulphurizing agent to recover sulphur-bound lipids from the polar and asphaltene fractions. Carbon isotopic compositions (delta vs PDB) of free hydrocarbons and of S-bound hydrocarbons were also measured. Relationships between these carbon skeletons, precursor biolipids, and the organisms producing them could then be examined. Concentrations of S-bound lipids and free hydrocarbons and their delta values were plotted vs depth in the marl bed and the profiles were interpreted in terms of variations in source organisms, 13 C contents of the carbon source, and environmentally induced changes in isotopic fractionation. The overall range of delta values measured was 24.7%, from -11.6% for a component derived from green sulphur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae) to -36.3% for a lipid derived from purple sulphur bacteria (Chromatiaceae). Deconvolution of mixtures of components deriving from multiple sources (green and purple sulphur bacteria, coccolithophorids, microalgae and higher plants) was sometimes possible because both quantitative and isotopic data were available and because either the free or S-bound pool sometimes appeared to contain material from a single source. Several free n-alkanes and S-bound lipids appeared to be specific products of upper-water-column primary producers (i.e. algae and cyanobacteria). Others derived from anaerobic photoautotrophs and from heterotrophic protozoa (ciliates), which apparently fed partly on Chlorobiaceae. Four groups of n-alkanes produced by algae or cyanobacteria were also recognized based on systematic variations of abundance and isotopic composition with depth. For hydrocarbons probably derived from microalgae, isotopic variations are well correlated with those of total organic carbon. A resistant aliphatic biomacromolecule produced by microalgae is, therefore, probably an important component of the kerogen. These variations reflect changes in the depositional environment and early diagenetic transformations. Changes in the concentrations of S-bound lipids induced by variations in conditions favourable for sulphurization were discriminated from those related to variations in primary producer assemblages. The water column of the lagoonal basin was stratified and photic zone anoxia occurred during the early and middle stages of marl deposition. During the last stage of the marl deposition the stratification collapsed due to a significant shallowing of the water column. Contributions from anaerobic photoautotrophs were apparently associated with variations in depth of the chemocline.

Non-NASA Center↗

Global Circulation and Impact of Plasmaspheric Plumes

We report results from the global circulation model of Lyon, Fedder, and Mobarry with an embedded model of the inner magnetosphere including the plasmasphere. The combination is used to initiate large numbers of representative protons on the geosynchronous orbit L shell, to assign particle weightings, to track their: subsequent trajectories in the 3D fields. This permits us to study the global circulation of plasmaspheric plumes and to compare these with Polar observations from the dayside magnetopause region . A range of events is studied from an isolated period of SBz in the solar wind,to a large storm sequence. We consider effects on circulating plasma reaching the dayside reconnection X-line, the population of the plasma sheet with ionospheric protons and the generation of ring current pressure from this source, compared with solar wind, polar wind, and auroral wind sources. We find that the transient plasmaspheric plume source is large in terms of total fluence, but of modest proportions in terms of contribution to the ring current. Implications of this and other results for improved space weather modeling and prediction will be discussed.

Moore, Thomas E.↗

Three years of Transients with Fermi GBM

The Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) is an all-sky monitoring instrument, sensitive between 8 keV and 40 MeV, with a primary objective of supporting the Large Area Telescope (LAT) in observations of Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). Both instruments are part of the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. Together, the GBM and LAT instruments have provided ground-breaking measurements of GRBs that have, after 10 years of focus on GRB afterglows, inspired renewed interest in the prompt emission phase of GRBs and the physical mechanisms that fuel them. In addition to GRB science, GBM has made significant contributions to the astrophysics of galactic transient sources including long-term variations in the Crab nebula, spin state transitions in accretion powered pulsars, state transitions in black hole X-ray binaries, and unprecedented time-resolved spectral studies of soft gamma-ray repeater bursts. Closer to home, GBM also contributes to solar flare and terrestrial gamma flash science.

Wilson-Hodge, Colleen A.↗

Radiation Budget Instrument (RBI) for JPSS-2

Radiation Budget Instrument (RBI) will be one of five instruments flying aboard the JPSS-2 spacecraft, a polar-orbiting sun-synchronous satellite in Low Earth Orbit. RBI is a passive remote sensing instrument that will follow the successful legacy of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments to make measurement of Earth's short and longwave radiation budget. The goal of RBI is to provide an independent measurement of the broadband reflected solar radiance and Earth's emitted thermal radiance by using three spectral bands (Shortwave, Longwave, and Total) that will have the same overlapped point spread function (PSF) footprint on Earth. To ensure precise NIST-traceable calibration in space the RBI sensor is designed to use a visible calibration target (VCT), a solar calibration target (SCT), and an infrared calibration target (ICT) containing phase change cells (PCC) to enable on-board temperature calibration. The VCT is a thermally controlled integrating sphere with space grade Spectralon covering the inner surface. Two sides of the sphere will have fiber-coupled laser diodes in the UV to IR wavelength region. An electrical substitution radiometer on the integrating sphere will monitor the long term stability of the sources and the possible degradation of the Spectralon in space. In addition the radiometric calibration operations will use the Spectralon diffusers of the SCT to provide accurate measurements of Solar degradation. All those stable on-orbit references will ensure that calibration stability is maintained over the RBI sensor lifetime. For the preflight calibration the RBI will view five calibration sources - two integrating spheres and three CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder ) -like blackbodies whose outputs will be validated with NIST calibration approach. Thermopile are the selected detectors for the RBI. The sensor has a requirement to perform lunar calibration in addition to solar calibration in space in a way similar to CERES instruments approach. To monitor climate change and to get stable and traceable results, it is critical to assure stable calibration over instrument lifetime.

Georgieva, Elena↗

Maximum Carbon Uptake Rate Dominates the Interannual Variability of Global Net Ecosystem Exchange

Terrestrial ecosystems contribute most of the interannual variability (IAV) in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, but processes driving the IAV of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) remain elusive. For a predictive understanding of the global C cycle, it is imperative to identify indicators associated with ecological processes that determine the IAV of NEE. Here, we decompose the annual NEE of global terrestrial ecosystems into their phenological and physiological components, namely maximum carbon uptake (MCU) and release (MCR), the carbon uptake period (CUP), and two parameters, α and β, that describe the ratio between actual versus hypothetical maximum C sink and source, respectively. Using long‐term observed NEE from 66 eddy covariance sites and global products derived from FLUXNET observations, we found that the IAV of NEE is determined predominately by MCU at the global scale, which explains 48% of the IAV of NEE on average while α, CUP, β, and MCR explain 14%, 25%, 2%, and 8%, respectively. These patterns differ in water‐limited ecosystems versus temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems; 31% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of CUP in water‐limited ecosystems, and 60% of the IAV of NEE is determined by the IAV of MCU in temperature‐ and radiation‐limited ecosystems. The Lund‐Potsdam‐Jena (LPJ) model and the Multi‐scale Synthesis and Terrestrial Model Inter‐comparison Project (MsTMIP) models underestimate the contribution of MCU to the IAV of NEE by about 18% on average, and overestimate the contribution of CUP by about 25%. This study provides a new perspective on the proximate causes of the IAV of NEE, which suggest that capturing the variability of MCU is critical for modeling the IAV of NEE across most of the global land surface.

Fu, Zheng↗

Impact of Future Low-Emissions Combustor Technology on Acoustic Scaling Laws

The overall goal of a recent research project at the Raytheon Technologies Research Center, under National Aeronautics and Space Administration sponsorship, was to develop a first-ofits-kind database of detailed unsteady measurements characterizing noise sources of far-term advanced low-emissions aero-combustors. The program addressed the need for fundamental combustion-noise experiments which, in the near term, enable improvements to reduced-order models for use in system level noise assessments at the preliminary design stage for advanced air transport vehicles. In addition, optical measurement techniques were refined and validated for usage at the higher pressures and temperatures relevant to future combustor designs. In the long term, results from this program can be utilized to validate high-fidelity prediction methods suited for detailed multi-disciplinary acoustics/emissions combustor design. This paper concentrates on one aspect of the overall project, namely an examination of the legacy scaling laws for broadband combustor noise.

aeroacoustics, turbomachinery noise, combustor noi↗

Impact of Future Low-Emissions Combustor Technology on Acoustic Scaling Laws

The work is a summary and further analysis of unlimited-rights acoustic data acquired under NRA Contract NNC16CA39C (September 2016 - November2019) with United Technologies (now Raytheon Technologies) Research Center, East Hartford, Connecticut. NASA/CR-20205011099/VOL1, https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20205011099. The overall goal of the Contract was to develop a first-of-its- kind database of detailed unsteady measurements characterizing noise sources of far-term advanced low-emissions aero-combustors. The program addressed the need for fundamental combustion-noise experiments which, in the near term, enable improvements to reduced-order models for use in system level noise assessments at the preliminary design stage for advanced air transport vehicles. In addition, optical measurement techniques were refined and validated for usage at the higher pressures and temperatures relevant to future combustor designs. In the long term, results from this program can be utilized to validate high-fidelity prediction methods suited for detailed multi-disciplinary acoustics/emissions combustor design. This presentation concentrates on one aspect of the overall project, namely an examination of the legacy scaling laws for broadband combustor noise.

aeroacoustics, turbomachinery noise, combustor noi↗

Graph Representation Learning for Dengue Forecasting

In 2017, the largest recorded dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka’s history occurred. Since then, dengue has continued to threaten national health across Sri Lanka. The development of an effective Early Warning System (EWS) for dengue outbreaks is essential for Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Health to take preventative measures. We propose the use of Graph Neural Networks as EWS. Using earth observational data from NASAs global satellites and dengue incidence data from Sri Lanka s Ministry of Health, we developed a series of traditional and graph representation EWS to forecast Dengue cases across Sri Lanka’s 25 districts between 2013 and 2022. We demonstrate empirically that Graph Neural Networks which incorporate spatiotemporal relations significantly outperform traditional EWS such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our source code is available on GitHub and will be provided in the final submission.

Graph Neural Networks↗

Nearly sonic and transsonic convective motions in the solar atmosphere related to the solar wind origin

MHD equations are considered for the solar atmosphere. 15 different simplest MHD regimes are indicated for the momentum transport equation depending on the mutual binary interplay between 6 possible and locally dominant terms: non-stationarity and inhomogeneity of the flow, gas pressure, magnetic tensions, viscous and gravity forces. These regimes are delimited by five physically independent dimensionless parameters, for example, Strouhal, sonic Mach, alfvenic Mach, Reynolds and Froude numbers or their combinations. Another partially overlapping classification of the simplest regimes may be introduced based on the energy conservation equation. There are also 15 independent binary combinations between nonstationary and inhomogeneous convective terms, dissipative energy sinks and sources (viscous, heat-conductive, Joule and radiative ones) in the energy equation. More complicated regimes are considered with multiple dominated terms. All these MHD regimes play their important role somewhere in the solar atmosphere complicated by the tensor transport coefficients in the magnetically dominated regions of the upper atmosphere. Nearly sonic and transsonic nonstationary convective motions with ascending and descending flows are observed in the solar chromosphere. the transition region and the lower pans of the solar corona together with related horizontal velocity components. This convection represents a kind of the 'cocoonery' manufacturing nonstationary vortices generated here and partially connected to the photosphere and to the solar wind. The solar wind originates from this powerful transsonic muddle in the solar atmosphere as a tiny fraction of the streamlines which are temporarily getting detached from the 'cocoons; and going to the infinity. The topologically complicated instantaneous 'runaway surface' around the Sun, i.e., the surface which separates outgoing to the infinity streams from other finite flows in the solar atmosphere was not described in the literature and needs additional investigation. We conclude that a simple one-connected smooth and quasistationary 'critical surface' which is often supposed to be placed somewhere in the solar corona (say, at 4 solar radii) in reality does not exist. Observational and theoretical arguments favor instead of this a highly structured, disordered, patched and time-dependent sonic transition surface in the solar atmosphere permanently fluctuating at positional dependent heights starting sometimes from photospheric (and maybe subphotospheric) levels and more frequently from the chromosphenc network up to several solar radii in the solar corona.

Veselovsky, I. S.↗

Compton and synchrotron processes in spherically-symmetric non-thermal sources

A framework is developed for the accurate calculation of Compton and synchrotron processes in a special class of spherically-symmetric sources. The models considered take a distribution in magnetic field values and high-energy electron density that varies smoothly from central values to values at the outer boundary of the source. Further, the assumption is made that the magnetic field has local disorder (isotropy) and the high-energy electron distribution has local isotropy. Then, in terms of parameters of the source, the synchrotron brightness distribution, total synchrotron flux, Compton-synchrotron flux, and synchrotron self-absorption turnover are all computed accurately. Results are given with a view toward application to the analysis of compact non-thermal sources.

Gould, R. J.↗

Low-frequency source parameters of twelve large earthquakes

A global survey of the low-frequency (1-21 mHz) source characteristics of large events are studied. We are particularly interested in events unusually enriched in low-frequency and in events with a short-term precursor. We model the source time function of 12 large earthquakes using teleseismic data at low frequency. For each event we retrieve the source amplitude spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 21 mHz with the Silver and Jordan method and the phase-shift spectrum in the frequency range between 1 and 11 mHz with the Riedesel and Jordan method. We then model the source time function by fitting the two spectra. Two of these events, the 1980 Irpinia, Italy, and the 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, are shallow-depth complex events that took place on multiple faults. In both cases the source time function has a length of about 100 seconds. By comparison Westaway and Jackson find 45 seconds for the Irpinia event and Houston and Kanamori about 50 seconds for the Akita-Oki earthquake. The three deep events and four of the seven intermediate-depth events are fast rupturing earthquakes. A single pulse is sufficient to model the source spectra in the frequency range of our interest. Two other intermediate-depth events have slower rupturing processes, characterized by a continuous energy release lasting for about 40 seconds. The last event is the intermediate-depth 1983 Peru-Ecuador earthquake. It was first recognized as a precursive event by Jordan. We model it with a smooth rupturing process starting about 2 minutes before the high frequency origin time superimposed to an impulsive source.

Harabaglia, Paolo↗

Cryogenic blackbody radiation calibration source

A cryogenic blackbody radiation source for providing target temperatures between room temperature and -100 C was designed, fabricated, and tested. This blackbody radiation source is intended for calibration of radiometric infrared imaging systems down to -100 C. The construction and operating principles of this apparatus are described. The long term and short term stability of the radiant source have been investigated. The emittance of the source and the source radiant uniformity have been addressed.

Burkett, Cecil G., Jr.↗

Determination of the extragalactic-planetary frame tie from joint analysis of radio interferometric and lunar laser ranging measurements

Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observations of extragalactic radio sources provide the basis for defining an accurate non-rotating reference frame in terms of angular positions of the sources. Measurements of the distance from the Earth to the Moon and to the inner planets provide the basis for defining an inertial planetary ephemeris reference frame. The relative orientation, or frame tie, between these two reference frames is of interest for combining Earth orientation measurements, for comparing Earth orientation results with theories referred to the mean equator and equinox, and for determining the positions of the planets with respect to the extragalactic reference frame. This work presents an indirect determination of the extragalactic-planetary frame tie from a combined reduction of VLBI and Lunar Laser Ranging (LLR) observations. For this determination, data acquired by LLR tracking stations since 1969 have been analyzed and combined with 14 years of VLBI data acquired by NASA's Deep Space Network since 1978. The frame tie derived from this joint analysis, with an accuracy of 0.003 sec, is the most accurate determination obtained so far. This result, combined with a determination of the mean ecliptic (defined in the rotating sense), shows that the mean equinox of epoch J2000 is offset from the x-axis of the extragalactic frame adopted by the International Earth Rotation Service for astrometric and geodetic applications by 0.078 sec +/- 0.010 sec along the y-direction and y 0.019 sec +/- 0.001 sec. along the z-direction.

Folkner, W. M.↗

Assessing Cyanobacterial Frequency and Abundance at Surface Waters Near Drinking Water Intakes Across the United States

This study presents the first large-scale assessment of cyanobacterial frequency and abundance of surface water near drinking water intakes across the United States. Public water systems serve drinking water to nearly 90% of the United States population. Cyanobacteria and their toxins may degrade the quality of finished drinking water and can lead to negative health consequences. Satellite imagery can serve as a cost-effective and consistent monitoring technique for surface cyanobacterial blooms in source waters and can provide drinking water treatment operators information for managing their systems. This study uses satellite imagery from the European Space Agency’s Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) spanning June 2016 through April 2020. At 300-m spatial resolution, OLCI imagery can be used to monitor cyanobacteria in 685 drinking water sources across 285 lakes in 44 states, referred to here as resolvable drinking water sources. First, a subset of satellite data was compared to a subset of responses (n = 84) submitted as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s fourth Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR 4). These UCMR 4 qualitative responses included visual observations of algal bloom presence and absence near drinking water intakes from March 2018 through November 2019. Overall agreement between satellite imagery and UCMR 4 qualitative responses was 94% with a Kappa coefficient of 0.70. Next, temporal frequency of cyanobacterial blooms at all resolvable drinking water sources was assessed. In 2019, bloom frequency averaged 2% and peaked at 100%, where 100% indicated a bloom was always present at the source waters when satellite imagery was available. Monthly cyanobacterial abundances were used to assess short-term trends across all resolvable drinking water sources and effect size was computed to provide insight on the number of years of data that must be obtained to increase confidence in an observed change. Generally, 2016-2020 was an insufficient time period for confidently observing changes at these source waters; on average, a decade of satellite imagery would be required for observed environmental trends to outweigh variability in the data. However, five source waters did demonstrate a sustained short-term trend, with one increasing in cyanobacterial abundance from June 2016 to April 2020 and four decreasing.

remote sensing↗