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At least 613 records · Page 34

A model for jet-noise analysis using pressure-gradient correlations on an imaginary cone

The technique for determining the near and far acoustic field of a jet through measurements of pressure-gradient correlations on an imaginary conical surface surrounding the jet is discussed. The necessary analytical developments are presented, and their feasibility is checked by using a point source as the sound generator. The distribution of the apparent sources on the cone, equivalent to the point source, is determined in terms of the pressure-gradient correlations.

Norum, T. D.↗

Tierra del Fuego Case Study Capacity Expansion Analysis

This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Jackson, L., Johnson, M.B., Latrach, A., Grimes, D., Martinez, C., and Mclaughlin, J.F., 2024, Multidisciplinary geotechnical data collection, curation, and analysis for conformity with the regulatory framework for geologic carbon storage in Wyoming, USA: Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs. Vol. 56, No. 5, 2024, doi: 10.1130/abs/2024AM-405024

Title: Multidisciplinary Geotechnical Data Collection, Curation, and Analysis for Conformity with the Regulatory Framework for Geologic Carbon Storage in Wyoming, USA. Text: Construction and operation of wells for geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide necessitate that they are permitted under the Environmental Protection Agency’s Underground Injection Control Class VI requirements. Class VI wells conform to stringent requirements to ensure long-term safety and integrity of the storage site and the protection of Underground Sources of Drinking Water. Entities pursuing Class VI permitting must provide comprehensive geologic site characterization, including regional geologic structure and stratigraphy, aquifer information, reservoir and confining unit geomechanical properties, geochemical analyses, assessment of trapping capacity and mechanisms, and a variety of other of multidisciplinary geotechnical data. The Wyoming Class VI Site Characterization Database Project is focused on developing a geologic site characterization database of geotechnical information, which has been compiled and verified from established, public databases/entities and scientific literature to expedite Class VI permitting in Sweetwater County within the Greater Green River Basin of southern Wyoming. The preliminary suite of compiled data from 14,000 wells includes 8,000 wells with logs and 7,250 wells with formation tops, ~70 wells with core data (e.g., X-Ray diffraction, petrographic, and petrophysical data), ~2,500 water analyses, ~740 seismic events data, and ~520 bottom-hole temperature measurements. Future work on—and stemming from—this project will include new core analyses, calculation and interpolation of subsurface temperature gradients, mechanical earth models, geochemical simulations, storage capacity estimation, stratigraphic column generation and correlation, and construction of subsurface maps. Finally, this work will help to inspire and facilitate subsurface data compilation and curation beyond Sweetwater County, Wyoming.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Propagation of transients in a random medium

The propagation of transient scalar waves in a three-dimensional random medium is considered. The analysis is based on the smoothing method. An integro-differential equation for the coherent (or average) wave is derived and solved for the case of a statistically homogeneous and isotropic medium and a delta-function source. This yields the coherent Green's function of the medium. It is found that the waveform of the coherent wave depends generally on the distance from the source measured in terms of a certain dimensionless parameter. Based on the magnitude of this parameter, three propagation zones, called the near zone, the far zone, and the intermediate zone, are defined.

Wenzel, A. R.↗

Consistent coupling algorithms for coupled core-edge simulations of plasma turbulence

Two schemes for coupling gyrokinetic simulations of microturbulence in tokamaks are proposed. The first scheme is based on an additive Schwarz domain decomposition. In this work, we show that, because the goal of turbulence is long-time averages of the dynamics rather than temporal accuracy, the iteration to self-consistency across domains, which is typically required by Schwarz schemes, can be avoided, thereby accelerating the computation. Second, we propose a coupling scheme that relies entirely on the addition of source terms, leaving the boundary conditions arbitrary. The practical motivations for such a scheme are discussed, and forms of the source terms that ensure consistency and stability are derived. The schemes are tested on a nonlinear, one-dimensional model problem, and the first scheme is further tested on the Hasegawa–Wakatani model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Co-Pyrolysis of Chicken and Cow Manure

Conventional pyrolysis is a relatively simple way for biochar production; however, a single biomass feedstock approach is not promising for the development of multiple properties of biochar used in various applications. Here, this study provides a detailed comparison in terms of pyrolysis kinetics between the cow manure and chicken manure, in addition to the co-pyrolysis by mixing the two livestock at different ratios. Eight different heating rates were tested, 5–40 °C/min with 5 °C/min step, on both livestock using the nitrogen as a gas agent with a flowrate of 50 ml/min. The initial results show that for the slow heating rates, 5 °C/min, the thermal degradation of the cow manure is different compared to that obtained from chicken manure. For the cow manure, the first peak, associated with hemicellulose decomposition, is higher than the second peak, associated with cellulose decomposition, which is the other way around for chicken manure. At 5 °C /min, the hemicellulose decomposition took place at 250 °C and 300 °C for the chicken manure and cow manure, respectively. The cellulose decomposition was started at 300 °C for chicken manure and 470 °C for cow manure. The lowest heat rate was selected for the co-pyrolysis case study to allow a quasi-equilibrium state to avoid measurement errors and heat transfer limitation in terms of thermal lag. Co-pyrolysis is studied with different blend ratios between the chicken and cow manure, where the 40% cow manure shows a positive result in terms of keeping an exothermic reaction over the co-pyrolysis process.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Plasma-based global pathway analysis to understand the chemical kinetics of plasma-assisted combustion and fuel reforming

The Global Pathway Analysis (GPA) algorithm helps analyze the chemical kinetics of complex combustion systems by identifying important global reaction pathways connecting a source species to a sink species through various important intermediate species (i.e., hub species). Here, the present work aims to extend GPA algorithm to plasma-assisted combustion and fuel reforming systems to identify the dominant global pathways in such systems at various conditions. In addition, the present study extends the ability of GPA algorithm to identify reaction cycles involving the excitation of high-concentration species (e.g., O 2 , N 2 , and fuel) to their vibrational and electronic states and the subsequent de excitation to their ground state, based on their significance on the reactivity of plasma-assisted systems in terms of gas heating and radical production. Provisions are made in the GPA algorithm to evaluate the reactivity of identified re action pathways and cycles based on the element-flux transfer (i.e., dominance), heat release, and radical production rate. The newly developed Plasma-based Global Pathway Analysis (PGPA) algorithm is then used to analyze the plasma assisted combustion of ammonia and reforming of methane. The PGPA analyses elucidated the significance of vibrational-translational cycles on the reactivity of NH 3 /air mixtures. Further, analyses on the production of NO ascribed the early reforming of NH 3 to N 2 and H 2 in impeding the production of NO during plasma-assisted NH 3 ignition. Lastly, the enhanced reforming of CH 4 /N 2 mixtures using plasma has been attributed to electron impact dissociation of CH 4 when compared to thermal reforming. In contrast, conventional path-Flux analysis (PFA) was found to require significant manual effort and pre-analysis intuitions from expert knowledge, making it arduous to provide valuable in sights into plasma chemistry. The user-friendly and automated nature of PGPA thus provides a valuable tool for assessing the kinetics of plasma-assisted systems helpful in analyzing and, further, a foundation in reducing plasma-assisted chemistry, without the needs of expert knowledge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Search for continuous gravitational wave signals from luminous dark photon superradiance clouds with LVK O3 observations

Superradiance clouds of kinetically mixed dark photons around spinning black holes can produce observable multimessenger electromagnetic and gravitational wave signals. The cloud generates electric fields of up to a teravolt-per-meter, which leads to a cascade production of charged particles, yielding a turbulent quasiequilibrium plasma around the black hole, and resulting in electromagnetic fluxes ranging from supernova to pulsar-like luminosities. For stellar mass black holes, such systems resemble millisecond pulsars and are expected to emit pulsating radio waves and continuous gravitational waves (CWs) within the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) sensitivity band. We select 44 sources with approximately coincident frequencies or positive frequency drifts from existing pulsar catalogs as potential candidates of long-lasting superradiance clouds around old Galactic black holes. For a subset of 34 sources that are well measured and have not been previously targeted, we perform the first search for CW emission in LVK data from the third observing run. We find no evidence of a CW signal and place 95% confidence level upper limits on the emitted strain amplitude. We interpret these results, together with limits from previous searches, in terms of the underlying dark photon theory by performing an analysis of the expected signals from superradiance clouds from Galactic black holes. Finally, we find that, even for moderately spinning black holes, the absence of an observed CW signal disfavors a discrete set of dark photon masses between about 10 −13 and 10 −12 eV/c 2 and kinetic mixing couplings in the range of 10 −9 –10 −7 , subject to assumptions about the properties of the black hole population and the cloud’s electromagnetic emission.

astronomical black holes↗

Best Practices for Shielding Analyses of Activated Metals and Spent Resins from Reactor Operation

This report investigated best practices for performing shielding evaluations of Type B waste packages, as defined in 10 CFR Part 71 regulations on packaging and transportation of radioactive material, or packages for which the contents are not defined before loading and may include a broad range of nuclides, geometries, and non-fuel materials. The following non-fuel waste streams were analyzed: Activated metals from decommissioned commercial power reactors, including Type 304 stainless steel, reactor vessel steel, and Inconel, Control blades from boiling water reactors, Neutron-activated corrosion products on surfaces of activated metals, and Spent resins from power plant operations. Measured elemental compositions, including major constituents and impurities, for steel and Inconel samples from commercial power reactors were used in activation calculations to determine radionuclide inventories in activated metals. For a simplified cask model, 60 Co contribution to the total external package dose rate at 30 days after shutdown varied from approximately 60% to 95%, depending on the activated metal, initial cobalt impurity concentration in the metal, and the thickness of the overpack gamma shield. Its maximum contribution to the total external package dose rate of approximately 100% was reached within the time interval of 2 to 5 years after shutdown and was maintained for up to 45 to 60 years after shutdown, depending on material, initial cobalt impurity concentration, and shield thickness. Thereafter, the 60 Co contribution to external package dose rate decreased with increasing decay time. Cobalt-60 is primarily produced by neutron reactions with the cobalt impurity in steel and Inconel. Other important radionuclides in activated metals contributing to package external dose rate are radionuclides with relatively short decay times, including 51 Cr, 59 Fe, 58 Co, and 54 Mn. These radionuclides may be represented as an equivalent 60 Co activity/source because 60 Co gamma ray emissions are bounding in terms of source strength and energy to other important radionuclides identified in the analyzed activated metals. Approaches for modeling the neutron-activated corrosion products that may be attached to activated reactor components were analyzed in this report. It was demonstrated that a surface source is more conservative than a uniform volumetric source for the treatment of neutron-activated corrosion products with respect to external package dose rates. An analysis of the maximum radionuclide loadings reported on spent resins identified the radionuclides 137 Cs, 60 Co, 134 Cs, 65 Zn, and 58 Co as the primary contributors to external package dose rate. For a resin cooled for 3.08 years, the external package dose rate was entirely produced by the reported 137 Cs and 60 Co inventory. The neutron sources from actinides found on spent resins or activated metals produced negligible dose rates and may be ignored in dose rate analyses. Effects of idealized waste material, source geometry, and spatial material/source distributions on external package dose rates were determined based on dose rate results for a simplified cask model under normal conditions of transport. Type 304 stainless steel, zirconium, and aluminum with adjusted mass densities based on a maximum content weight were analyzed for material modeling effects on external package dose rate. These materials produced identical external package dose rates within the statistical uncertainties of the dose rate estimates. Among four different source geometry configurations with homogeneous material of different mass densities, uniform volumetric source distribution, and the same source strength, the geometry configuration with lowest mass density (i.e., minimum self-shielding effect among the four cases) was most conservative. Spatial source distributions that better represent localized peak 60 Co activity values were more conservative than a uniform volumetric source distribution, assuming the same weight and total source strength per package. The increase in external dose rate caused by localized source peaks can be as much as the ratio between source peak activity density to average activity density, depending on the location of the activated metal with peak activity density. Therefore, the shielding analysis may be simplified if localized peak activities and the average activity per package can be measured/determined and documented at the time of cask loading. For simplicity, external package dose rates may be determined based on average source activity and a uniform volumetric source distribution. The dose rate results from that calculation model multiplied by the ratio of peak activity density to average activity density will produce maximum dose rate values for conservative estimates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Impedance Analysis and PHIL Demonstration of Reactive Power Oscillations in a Wind Power Plant Using a 4-MW Wind Turbine

This paper presents impedance-based analysis, mitigation, and power-hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) demonstration of reactive power oscillations in a wind power plant using a 4-MW Type III wind turbine drivetrain. Because such low-frequency oscillations result from interactions among slower control loops of wind turbines regulating phasor quantities—active and reactive power output of the wind turbine and the magnitude of voltages at the point of interconnection (POI)—a new type of admittance is defined in terms of phasor quantities for their analysis. The so-called power-domain admittance of a wind turbine is defined as the transfer function from the frequency and magnitude of voltages at the POI to the active and reactive power output of the turbine. The power-domain admittance responses of the 4-MW wind turbine are measured using a 7-MVA grid simulator to identify the source of the reactive power oscillations. Power-domain impedance analysis and PHIL experiments are performed to explain how a resonant mode manifests as turbine-to-turbine and plant-to-grid reactive power oscillations. It is discovered that weaker grids exhibiting high inductive impedance mitigate oscillations in the reactive power output of wind power plants; however, a higher grid impedance does not help in damping turbine-to-turbine reactive power oscillations. This paper presents a simple droop-based solution to eliminate both turbine-to-turbine and plant-to-grid reactive power oscillations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Harmonising the land-use flux estimates of global models and national inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr —1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of —1.9 GtCO 2 yr —1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO 2 yr —1 ). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (—6.4 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr —1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Heat Pump Retrofits for Central Plant Hydronic Heating Systems: A Software Toolkit for Screening and Design

Retrofitting existing central plants with high-efficiency heat pump technologies can play a crucial role in achieving long-term planning goals. Modern heat pump technologies are able to use waste heat recovery to meet a building's heating demand, but there is a lack of accessible tools designed for non-HVAC experts, such as building owners, to quickly and easily conduct what-if analysis, e.g., estimating retrofit costs and payback period for their partial or full equipment replacement. This paper introduces an open-source software toolkit designed to facilitate the initial screening and decision-making of heat pump retrofits in existing central plants using a building's yearly load profile from metered or utility bill data. The toolkit evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional central plant equipment with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. The toolkit offers (1) a web-based tool designed for user-friendly access by a broad audience and (2) Python-based source code for researchers and engineers conducting parametric studies and design parameter optimization. The toolkit compares a typical central plant configuration to a configuration that uses a heat pump to supply hydronic heating and cooling. The output metrics include energy consumption and output of each equipment, life-cycle cost analyses and metrics, and environmental impact of the system.

Excell, L↗

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Harmonising the Land-Use Flux Estimates of Global Models and National Inventories for 2000–2020

As the focus of climate policy shifts from pledges to implementation, there is a growing need to track progress on climate change mitigation at the country level, particularly for the land-use sector. Despite new tools and models providing unprecedented monitoring opportunities, striking differences remain in estimations of anthropogenic land-use CO 2 fluxes between, on the one hand, the national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) used to assess compliance with national climate targets under the Paris Agreement and, on the other hand, the Global Carbon Budget and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, both based on global bookkeeping models (BMs). Recent studies have shown that these differences are mainly due to inconsistent definitions of anthropogenic CO 2 fluxes in managed forests. Countries assume larger areas of forest to be managed than BMs do, due to a broader definition of managed land in NGHGIs. Additionally, the fraction of the land sink caused by indirect effects of human-induced environmental change (e.g. fertilisation effect on vegetation growth due to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration) on managed lands is treated as non-anthropogenic by BMs but as anthropogenic in most NGHGIs. We implement an approach that adds the CO 2 sink caused by environmental change in countries' managed forests (estimated by 16 dynamic global vegetation models, DGVMs) to the land-use fluxes from three BMs. This sum is conceptually more comparable to NGHGIs and is thus expected to be quantitatively more similar. Our analysis uses updated and more comprehensive data from NGHGIs than previous studies and provides model results at a greater level of disaggregation in terms of regions, countries and land categories (i.e. forest land, deforestation, organic soils, other land uses). Our results confirm a large difference (6.7 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) in global land-use CO 2 fluxes between the ensemble mean of the BMs, which estimate a source of 4.8 GtCO 2 yr −1 for the period 2000–2020, and NGHGIs, which estimate a sink of −1.9 GtCO 2 yr −1 in the same period. Most of the gap is found on forest land (3.5 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), with differences also for deforestation (2.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ), for fluxes from other land uses (1.0 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and to a lesser extent for fluxes from organic soils (0.2 GtCO2 yr−1). By adding the DGVM ensemble mean sink arising from environmental change in managed forests (−6.4 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) to BM estimates, the gap between BMs and NGHGIs becomes substantially smaller both globally (residual gap: 0.3 GtCO 2 yr −1 ) and in most regions and countries. However, some discrepancies remain and deserve further investigation. For example, the BMs generally provide higher emissions from deforestation than NGHGIs and, when adjusted with the sink in managed forests estimated by DGVMs, yield a sink that is often greater than NGHGIs. In summary, this study provides a blueprint for harmonising the estimations of anthropogenic land-use fluxes, allowing for detailed comparisons between global models and national inventories at global, regional and country levels. This is crucial to increase confidence in land-use emissions estimates, support investments in land-based mitigation strategies and assess the countries' collective progress under the Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement.

Giacomo Grassi↗

Method for the Collection, Gravimetric and Chemical Analysis of Nonvolatile Residue (NVR) on Surfaces

Nonvolatile residue (NVR), sometimes referred to as molecular contamination is the term used for the total composition of the inorganic and high boiling point organic components in particulates and molecular films deposited on critical surfaces surrounding space structures, with the particulate and NVR contamination originating primarily from pre-launch operations. The "nonvolatile" suggestion from the terminology NVR implies that the collected residue will not experience much loss under ambient conditions. NVR has been shown to have a dramatic impact on the ability to perform optical measurements from platforms based in space. Such contaminants can be detected early by the controlled application of various detection techniques and contamination analyses. Contamination analyses are the techniques used to determine if materials, components, and subsystems can be expected to meet the performance requirements of a system. Of particular concern is the quantity of NVR contaminants that might be deposited on critical payload surfaces from these sources. Subsequent chemical analysis of the contaminant samples by infrared spectroscopy and gas chromatography mass spectrometry identifies the components, gives semi-quantitative estimates of contaminant thickness, indicates possible sources of the NVR, and provides guidance for effective cleanup procedures. In this report, a method for the collection and determination of the mass of NVR was generated by the authors at NASA Langley Research Center. This report describes the method developed and implemented for collecting NVR contaminants, and procedures for gravimetric and chemical analysis of the residue obtained. The result of this NVR analysis collaboration will help pave the way for Langley's ability to certify flight hardware outgassing requirements in support of flight projects such as Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III), Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), Materials International Space Station Experiment - X (MISSE-X), and Doppler Aerosol Wind Lidar (DAWN).

Gordon, Keith↗

Code-verification techniques for hypersonic reacting flows in thermochemical nonequilibrium

The study of hypersonic flows and their underlying aerothermochemical reactions is particularly important in the design and analysis of vehicles exiting and reentering Earth's atmosphere. Computational physics codes can be employed to simulate these phenomena; however, code verification of these codes is necessary to certify their credibility. To date, few approaches have been presented for verifying codes that simulate hypersonic flows, especially flows reacting in thermochemical nonequilibrium. In this work, we present our code-verification techniques for verifying the spatial accuracy and thermochemical source term in hypersonic reacting flows in thermochemical nonequilibrium. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques on the Sandia Parallel Aerodynamics and Reentry Code (SPARC).

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Analytic error analysis of cross section interpolation methods in nodal diffusion codes - II: Numerical results

This paper is the second part of a two-part paper that documents the numerical results for the partial derivatives model presented in part I. In this paper, we derive the error bounds for the analytical point-wise error expression and verify our bounds with numerical experiments. The point-wise error expressions make available, and bound, the sources that contribute to the total error of the interpolated cross section in terms of the Lagrange interpolation errors and the model form error. MPACT is used to generate two-group homogenized cross sections for Westinghouse's AP1000 Region 4 lattice to evaluate the accuracy of the bounds. Error bounds calculated over a grid are compared to numerical data for uni-variate and multi-variate interpolation. The point-wise error bounds of a typical case matrix - two branches in each state variable - are displayed for bi-variate interpolation in the state variables: moderator density, fuel temperature, and boron concentration. The error bounds are shown to be highly accurate compared to numerical results, and in accordance with the underlying physics. We then discuss and show how the sources of error contribute to the total error, and consider the improvement of each error source. Finally, we mention future work such as propagating our cross section error bounds through a reactivity calculation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗