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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Observed Helicity of Active Regions in Solar Cycle 21

We report the results of a study of helicity in solar active regions during the peak of activity in solar cycle 21 from observations with the Marshall Space Flight Center's solar vector magnetograph. Using the force-free parameter alpha as the proxy for helicity, we calculated an average value of alpha for each of 60 active regions from a total of 449 vector magnetograms that were obtained during the period 1980 March to November. The signs of these average values of alpha were correlated with the latitude of the active regions to test the hemispheric rule of helicity that has been proposed for solar magnetic fields: negative helicity predominant in northern latitudes, positive in the southern ones. We have found that of the 60 regions that were observed, 30 obey the hemispheric rule and 30 do not.

Hagyard, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar-geophysical data number 499, March 1986. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for February 1986, January 1986 and late data

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 499, March 1986, Part 1 (Prompt Reports); Data for February 1986, January 1986 and Late Data, contains the following: Detailed index for 1985 to 1986; Data for February 1986--(IUWDS alert periods (Advance and worldwide), Solar activity indices, Solar flares, Solar radio emission, Vostok inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for January 1986--(Solar active regions, Sudden ionospheric disturbances, Solar radio spectral observations, Cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, Geomagnetic indices, Radio propagation indices); Late data-(Solar active regions, Solar radio spectral observations Culgoora, Cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, Calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Solar wind control of auroral zone geomagnetic activity

Solar wind magnetosphere energy coupling functions are analyzed using linear prediction filtering with 2.5 minute data. The relationship of auroral zone geomagnetic activity to solar wind power input functions are examined, and a least squares prediction filter, or impulse response function is designed from the data. Computed impulse response functions are observed to have characteristics of a low pass filter with time delay. The AL index is found well related to solar wind energy functions, although the AU index shows a poor relationship. High frequency variations of auroral indices and substorm expansions are not predictable with solar wind information alone, suggesting influence by internal magnetospheric processes. Finally, the epsilon parameter shows a poorer relationship with auroral geomagnetic activity than a power parameter, having a VBs solar wind dependency.

Clauer, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Observed Helicity of Active Regions in Solar Cycle 21

We report the results of a study of magnetic helicity in solar active regions during solar cycles 21 and 22 from observations with the Marshall Space Flight Center's solar vector magnetograph. Using the force-free parameter a as the proxy for helicity, we calculated an average value of a for each of 91 active regions from a total of 683 vector magnetograms that were obtained during the period March 1980 to July 1993. The signs of these average values of a were correlated with the latitude of the active regions to test the hemispherical rule of helicity that has been proposed for solar magnetic fields: negative helicity predominant in northern latitudes, positive in the southern ones. We have found that of the 65 regions that were observed in cycle 21,49% obey the hemispherical rule and 51% do not. On the other hand, for the 26 regions in cycle 22,65% do exhibit this correlation. In addition, our results seem to support the findings of Hagino and Sakurai (2002) which indicate evidence for a time variability in the hemispheric rule.

Hagyard, M. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models

Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1984

Solar-geophysical data number 479, July 1984. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for June 1984, May 1984 and later data

Solar and geophysical data for May and June 1984 are reported. Topics include: detailed index for 1983/1984; data for June 1984 (solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, mean solar magnetic field, boulder geomagnetic substorm log); data for May 1984 (solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data (geomagnetic indices March and April 1984 sudden commencements/solar flare effects, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, and solar active regions).

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Activity associated with the solar origin of coronal mass ejections

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in 1980 with the HAO Coronagraph/Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite are compared with other forms of solar activity that might be physically related to the ejections. The solar phenomena checked and the method of association used were intentionally patterned after those of Munro et al.'s (1979) analysis of mass ejections observed with the Skylab coronagraph to facilitate comparison of the two epochs. Comparison of the results reveals that the types and degree of CME associations are similar near solar activity minimum and at maximum. For both epochs, most CMEs with associations had associated eruptive prominences, and the proportions of association of all types of activity were similar. A high percentage of association between SMM CMEs and X-ray long duration events is also found, in agreement with Skylab results. It is concluded that most CMEs are the result of the destabilization and eruption of a prominence and its overlying coronal structure, or of a magnetic structure capable of supporting a prominence.

Webb, D. F.↗
NASA NTRS2008

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Pesnell. William Dean↗
NASA NTRS2000

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Survey and Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g. regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a complete description of future activity, while others, e.g. geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This Combined Precursor Method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+/-21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the next complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146+/-20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

How active was solar cycle 22?

Solar EUV observations from the Langmuir probe on Pioneer Venus Orbiter suggest that at EUV wavelengths solar cycle 22 was more active than solar cycle 21. The Langmuir probe, acting as a photodiode, measured the integrated solar EUV flux over a 13 1/2 year period from January 1979 to June 1992, the longest continuous solar EUV measurement. The Ipe EUV flux correlated very well with the SME measurement of L-alpha during the lifetime of SME and with the UARS SOLSTICE L-alpha from October 1991 to June 1992 when the Ipe measurement ceased. Starting with the peak of solar cycle 21, there was good general agreement of Ipe EUV with the 10.7 cm, Ca K, and He 10830 solar indices, until the onset of solar cycle 22. From 1989 to the start of 1992, the 10.7 cm flux exhibited a broad maximum consisting of two peaks of nearly equal magnitude, whereas Ipe EUV exhibited a strong increase during this time period making the second peak significantly higher than the first. The only solar index that exhibits the same increase in solar activity as Ipe EUV and L-alpha during the cycle 22 peak is the total magnetic flux. The case for high activity during this peak is also supported by the presence of very high solar flare intensity.

Hoegy, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar-geophysical data number 490, June 1985. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for May 1985, April 1985 and late data

Contents include: detailed index for 1984 to 1985; data for May 1985--(IUWDS alert periods (Advance and Worldwide) solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for April 1985--(solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data--(geomagnetic indices, cosmic rays, calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar-geophysical data number 493, September 1985. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for August 1985, July 1985 and late data

Topics covered include: detailed index for 1985; data for August 1985--(IUWDS alert periods (Advanced and Worldwide), solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); (solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data--calcium plage data.

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Solar-geophysical data number 494, October 1985. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for September 1985, August 1985 and late data

Data for August and September 1985 on IUWDS alert periods (advance and worldwide), solar activity indices, solar flares, solar radio emission, Stanford mean solar magnetic fields, solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements, geomagnetic indices, radio porpagation indices, inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, preliminary solar proton event list, and calcium plage are presented.

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 496, February 1986. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Data for January 1986,December 1985 and late data

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 498, February 1986, Part 1 (Prompt Reports), Data for January 1986, December 1985 and Late Data contains the following:detailed index for 1985-86; data for January 1986--(IUWDS alert periods (advanced and worldwide), Solar activity indices, Solar flares, Solar radio emission, Vostok inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for December 1985--(Solar active regions, Sudden ionospheric disturbances, Solar radio spectral observations, Cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, Geomagnetic indices, Radio propagation indices); late data--(Solar radio emission Nancay interferometric chart December 1985, Solar radio spectral observations Culgoora May 1985, Geomagnetic indices sudden commencements November 1985, Calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 497, January 1986. Part 1: (Prompt reports). Date for December 1985, November 1985 and late data

Solar-Geophysical Data Number 497, January 1986, Part 1 (prompt reports); Data for December 1985, November 1985 and Late Data contains the Data for December 1985-(IUWDS alert periods (advance and worldwide), solar activity indices, Solar flares, Vostok inferred interplanetary magnetic field polarity, Stanford mean solar magnetic field); data for November 1985-(solar active regions, sudden ionospheric disturbances, solar radio spectral observations, cosmic ray measurements by neutron monitor, geomagnetic indices, radio propagation indices); and late data-(geomagnetic indices, calcium plage data).

Coffey, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗