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At least 613 records · Page 34

Cyber-Physical Attacks With Control Objectives

This study studies attackers with control objectives against cyber-physical systems (CPSs). The goal of the attacker is to counteract the CPS's controller and move the system to a target state while evading detection. We formulate a cost function that reflects the attacker's goals, and, using dynamic programming, we show that the optimal attack strategy reduces to a linear feedback of the attacker's state estimate. By changing the parameters of the cost function, we show how an attacker can design optimal attacks to balance the control objective and the detection avoidance objective. In conclusion, we provide a numerical illustration based on a remotely controlled helicopter under attack.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Approximate Scheduling of DERs with Discrete Complex Injections

Rapid penetration of renewable energy based Distributed Energy Resources (DER) has the potential to exacerbate the challenges inherent in grid frequency and voltage regulation. However, their real time controllability can be leveraged to not only mitigate such challenges, but improve the economics and quality of grid operations. A plethora of DER scheduling algorithms have been developed for fast and efficient scheduling of these resources. These algorithms schedule the complex - real and reactive power injected into (or drawn from) the grid by the DERs under various cost objective functions and grid constraints. However, a vast majority of such algorithms assume the feasible range of power injections to be continuous. In reality, the control options available for several DERs form a discrete space. This implies that the feasible range of power injections also forms a discrete space. This makes DER scheduling an NP-hard problem. Integer/Mixed Integer program based algorithms, which guarantee optimality in the objective value, have been developed. But these are prohibitively expensive in terms of computational time requirements. On the other hand, fast heuristic based solutions have also been developed. But as they do not provide any guarantee on the optimality of the objective, or on satisfying the constraints, they are unreliable for grid operations. Recent works have developed approximation algorithms which offer the best of both the approaches above: (near) optimality and low computational complexity, both of which are governed by a user defined accuracy parameter ϵ. In this work, we significantly improve upon such existing works by developing an approximation algorithm which schedules DERs with complex injections (as opposed to only real injection) and whose runtime is polynomial (as opposed to exponential) in 1/ϵ. We provide theoretical analysis and support them with experimental results to validate the guarantees provided by our approximation algorithm.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Seismic Retrofit for Electric Power Systems

Our paper develops a two-stage stochastic program and solution procedure to optimize the selection of seismic retrofit strategies to increase the resilience of electric power systems against earthquake hazards. The model explicitly considers the range of earthquake events that are possible and, for each, an approximation of the distribution of damage experienced. Furthermore, this is important because electric power systems are spatially distributed and so their performance is driven by the distribution of component damage. We also test this solution procedure against the nonlinear integer solver in LINGO 13 and apply the formulation and solution strategy to the Eastern Interconnection, where seismic hazard stems from the New Madrid seismic zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Workflow of Full System SIERRA Models Supporting High Consequence Applications

Credibility of end-to-end CompSim (Computational Simulation) models and their agile execution requires an expressive framework to describe, communicate and execute complex computational tool chains representing the model. All stakeholders from system engineering and customers through model developers and V&V partners need views and functionalities of the workflow representing the model in a manner that is natural to their discipline. In the milestone and in this report we define workflow as a network of computation simulation activities executed autonomously on a distributed set of computational platforms. The FY19 ASC L2 Milestone (6802) for the Integrated Workflow (IWF) project was designed to integrate and improve existing capabilities or develop new functionalities to provide a wide range of stakeholders a coherent and intuitive platform capable of defining and executing CompSim modeling from analysis workflow definition to complex ensemble calculations. The main goal of the milestone was to advance the integrated workflow capabilities to support the weapon system analysts with a production deployment in FY20. Ensemble calculations supporting program decisions include sensitivity analysis, optimization and uncertainty quantification. The goal of the L2 milestone aligned with the ultimate goal of the IWF project is to foster cultural and technical shift toward and integrated CompSim capability based on automated workflows. Specific deliverables were defined in five broad categories: 1) Infrastructure, including development of distributed-computing workflow capability, 2) integration of Dakota (Sandia's sensitivity, optimization and UQ engine) with SAW (Sandia Analysis Workbench), 3) ARG (Automatic Report Generator introspecting analysis artifacts and generating human-readable extensible and archivable reports), 4) Libraries and Repositories aiding capability reuse, and 5) Exemplars to support training, capturing best practices and stress testing of the platform. A set of exemplars was defined to represent typical weapon system qualification CompSim projects. Analyzing the required capabilities and using the findings to plan implementation of required capabilities ensured optimal allocation of development resources focused on production deployment after the L2 is completed. It was recognized early that the end-to-end modeling applications pose a considerable number of diverse risks, and a formal risk tracking process was implemented. The project leveraged products, capabilities and development tasks of IWF partners. SAW, Dakota, Cubit, Sierra, Slycat, and NGA (NexGen Analytics, a small business) contributed to the integrated platform developed during this milestone effort. New products delivered include: a) NGW (Next Generation Workflow) for robust workflow definition and execution, b) Dakota wizards, editor and results visualization, and c) the automatic report generator ARG. User engagement was initiated early in the development process eliciting concrete requirements and actionable feedback to assure that the integrated CompSim capability will have high user acceptance and impact. The current integrated capabilities have been demonstrated and are continually being tested by a set of exemplars ranging from training scenarios to computationally demanding uncertainty analyses. The integrated workflow platform has been deployed on both SRN (Sandia Restricted Network) and SCN (Sandia Classified Network). Computational platforms where the system has been demonstrated span from Windows (Creo the CAD platform chosen by Sandia) to Trinity HPC (Sierra and CTH solvers). Follow up work will focus on deployment at SNL and other sites in the nuclear enterprise (LLNL, KCNSC), training and consulting support to democratize the analysis agility, process health and knowledge management benefits the NGW platform provides.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Workflow of Full System SIERRA Models Supporting High Consequence Applications (Executive Summary)

The overall goal of this work was to advance the integrated workflow capabilities to provide the weapon system analysts the tools to construct, communicate and robustly execute end-to-end computational simulation models and analysis. Specifically, this includes developing and running automated, CompSim workflows that map model inputs to responses from large-scale studies executed on a distributed, heterogenous computing environment (e.g., CAD applications on Windows laptop to Sierra FEM codes on Trinity within a single workflow). The workflows developed enable ensemble calculations in support of ND program decisions, including sensitivity analysis, optimization and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of HPC based phase field simulations tool for modification of alloy morphology to enhance material properties during additive manufacturing (AM) process

Currently, additive manufacturing (AM) technology is extensively used to manufacture aerospace components because of the unique advantages of the technique in producing custom designs, complex geometries in a near-net fashion that significantly reduces the manufacturing cost, and improved energy efficiency. However, the thermodynamic properties of existing aerospace alloys and the thermal conditions that prevail in most of the powder-bed based additive manufacturing processes lead to undesirable columnar / columnar-dendritic microstructures that promote solidification cracking during the process, and the development of anisotropy in the mechanical properties of the as-built components. Time consuming, energy-intensive post AM treatments are required to recover the mechanical properties of the wrought components for which the existing alloy compositions were designed for. However, novel alloy compositions, that exploit the AM thermal conditions to produce fine, equiaxed grain structures in the as-built condition, with mechanical properties equal to or exceeding those of the wrought work-horse alloy, Ti-6Al-4V has recently been demonstrated in Ti-Cu alloys. Significant energy savings up to 66% can be obtained for a typical aerospace component through digitally designing the AM process, process parameters, and alloy composition. The current project focused on developing a fundamental understanding of the evolution of the columnar to equiaxed transition (CET) occurring during solidification under AM thermal conditions in Ti-Cu and Ti-Cu-X alloys using high-fidelity phase field (PF) simulations using the leadership class computing facilities that exist in the national laboratories. The simulations were able to capture the effect of alloy and process conditions on CET, and clearly showed the beneficial effect of a ternary solute addition to Ti-Cu binary alloys on CET. The simulations indicated that bulk nucleation in the liquid ahead of the solidifying epitaxial front was promoted by a large, transient, thermal undercooling promoted by the mismatch between the growth rate of the dendrite tips in the epitaxial front and the imposed solidification rate. AM experiments performed at Raytheon Technologies Research Center using the same thermal conditions used in the PF simulations indicated the formation of equiaxed grains, although the grain size was bigger than the ones reported in the literature. On the other hand, the equiaxed grain size predicted by PF simulations were smaller than the grain size of Ti-Cu alloys reported in the literature. The industry will follow up the existing work in a future program that would involve further optimization of the process for the Ti-Cu-X alloys to demonstrate the application of the process and the alloy to a specific aerospace component.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Solar, Wind, and Load Forecasting Dataset for MISO, NYISO, and SPP Balancing Areas

The Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program is an initiative intended to foster "a fundamental shift in grid management rooted in an understanding of asset risk and system risk" (ARPA-E 2020). Launched by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the program supports efforts to incorporate uncertainty in electric power decision making. In support of PERFORM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced a set of time-coincident forecasts of solar, wind, and load profiles. As part of Phase I of the PERFORM effort, NREL created a dataset that consists of one year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts based on data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Bryce et al. 2023). In Phase II, NREL developed similar datasets for three other U.S. Independent System Operators (ISO): the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Enabling Capabilities and Resources: 2024 Principal Investigator Meeting Proceedings

As a major supporter of basic genome-enabled research, BER’s Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) fosters scientific discovery by funding - fundamental biological research across disciplines in conjunction with enabling investigational tools and computational capabilities that include world-class user facilities. The overarching goal of BSSD is to provide the necessary fundamental science to understand, predict, manipulate, and design biological systems that underpin innovations for bioenergy and bioproduct production and enhance understanding of natural, DOE-relevant environmental processes (Biological Systems Science Division Strategic Plan, 2021). To accelerate the U.S. bioeconomy, BSSD pursues innovative science underpinning advances in sustainable biofuels and bioproducts and the development of next-generation technologies and computational resources for systems biology research. The 2024 BSSD Enabling Capabilities and Resources (ECR) Principal Investigator (PI) meeting brought together PIs across the BSSD ECR portfolio to confer on shared interests and opportunities. The meeting was held concurrently with the Genomic Science program (GSP) PI meeting to optimize collaboration on research to advance bioenergy and the bioeconomy. Rick Stevens of Argonne National Laboratory gave a keynote on How Generative Artificial Intelligence Can Impact Biological Research (see Keynote: How Generative Artificial Intelligence Can Impact Biological Research, this page). Plenary presentations included several joint sessions that illuminated the integration and understanding of the larger BSSD mission. GSP’s objective is to provide systems-level understanding of plants, microbes, and their communities through its Bioenergy Research, Biosystems Design, and Environmental Microbiome Research portfolios. The objective of the ECR portfolio is to support development of computational and instrumental platforms to advance fundamental GSP research—and BER more broadly— toward the overall goal of understanding the functional principles of living systems and their response to environmental challenges.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Software Defined Architectures for Portability and Performance

The Software Defined Architectures for Portability and Performance (SODAPOP) project developed a co-design framework to partition and map converged applications on specialized heterogeneous architectures. We started from key domain applications that combine scientific simulation with data analytics and machine learning as drivers to integrate our framework. The framework includes high-level compilers that interfaces with high-level programming frameworks, domain-specific optimization passes, and hardware-oriented optimizations. The framework leverages hardware generators to enable specialization and facilitate exploration of custom system designs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Distributionally Robust Building Load Control to Compensate Fluctuations in Solar Power Generation

This paper investigates the use of a collection of dispatchable heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems to absorb low-frequency fluctuations in renewable energy sources, especially in solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. Given the uncertain and time-varying nature of solar PV generation, its probability distribution is difficult to be estimated perfectly, which poses a challenging problem of how to optimally schedule a fleet of HVAC loads to consume as much as local PV generation. We formulate a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) model to ensure that PV generation is consumed with a desired probability for a family of probability distributions, termed as an ambiguity set, built upon mean and covariance information. We benchmark the DRCC model with a deterministic optimization model and a stochastic programming model in a one-day simulation. We show that the DRCC model achieves constantly good performance to consume most PV generation even in the case with the presence of probability distribution ambiguity.

Zhang, Yiling↗

A Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Approach for the Design of Renewable Ammonia Supply Chain Networks

This work considers the incorporation of renewable ammonia manufacturing sites into existing ammonia supply chain networks while accounting for ammonia price uncertainty from existing producers. We propose a two-stage stochastic programming approach to determine the optimal investment decisions such that the ammonia demand is satisfied and the net present cost is minimized. We apply the proposed approach to a case study considering deploying in-state renewable ammonia manufacturing in Minnesota’s supply chain network. We find that accounting for price uncertainty leads to supply chains with more ammonia demand met via renewable production and thus lower costs from importing ammonia from existing producers. These results show that the in-state renewable production of ammonia can act as a hedge against the volatility of the conventional ammonia market.

Mitrai, Ilias (ORCID:0000000289896864)↗

Identification of NPP transients using artificial intelligence - 335

If the accidents happen in nuclear power plants (NPPs), the NPP operators identify the transients through observing the behaviors of the major parameters. However, the integrity of the instrumentation signals is not ensured under the accident circumstances and the major parameters essential in identifying the transients can rapidly change although the instruments generate accurate signals. Thus, to successfully control the accidents by taking necessary measures relatively faster, it is very important to provide the operators with the information that can identify the transients and accidents accurately. In this study, the transients of severe accidents in NPPs are identified and classified using artificial intelligence methodologies. Several transients are identified using support vector classification (SVC) and probabilistic neural network (PNN) as artificial intelligence methodologies. The used data for the transients are the simulation data using the modular accident analysis program (MAAP) code for the optimized power reactors (OPR1000s). The time-integrated values of chosen simulated sensor signals are used as the input variables for identifying the transients. As a result of this study, the proposed models identified the transients quite precisely. Therefore, the quite accurate identification of the transients indicates the excellence of these artificial intelligence methods and they will produce useful supporting information for the operators even under extreme transient circumstances in NPPs. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Modeling design and control problems involving neural network surrogates

Here, we consider nonlinear optimization problems that involve surrogate models represented by neural networks. We demonstrate first how to directly embed neural network evaluation into optimization models, highlight a difficulty with this approach that can prevent convergence, and then characterize stationarity of such models. We then present two alternative formulations of these problems in the specific case of feedforward neural networks with ReLU activation: as a mixed-integer optimization problem and as a mathematical program with complementarity constraints. For the latter formulation we prove that stationarity at a point for this problem corresponds to stationarity of the embedded formulation. Each of these formulations may be solved with state-of-the-art optimization methods, and we show how to obtain good initial feasible solutions for these methods. We compare our formulations on three practical applications arising in the design and control of combustion engines, in the generation of adversarial attacks on classifier networks, and in the determination of optimal flows in an oil well network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Poster — Thur Eve — 35: The impact of intensity- and energy-modulated photon radiotherapy (XMRT) optimization on a variety of organ geometries

We previously reported on a novel, modulated in both energy and intensity; photon radiotherapy (XMRT) optimization technique. The purpose of this investigation was to test this XMRT optimization against conventional intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) optimization on four different organ test geometries. All geometries mimicked clinically relevant scenarios. Both IMRT and XMRT were based on a linear programming approach where the objective function was the mean dose to healthy organs and organ-specific linear dose-point constraints were used. For IMRT, the beam energy was fixed to 6 MV while XMRT optimized in terms of both 6 and 18 MV beams. All plans consisted of a seven beam coplanar arrangement. All organ geometries were contoured on a 25cm diameter cylindrical water phantom in open source radiotherapy research software known as CERR. Solutions for both IMRT and XMRT were obtained for each geometry using a numerical solver Gurobi. Analyzing the quality of the solutions was done by comparing dose distributions and dose volume histograms calculated using CERR. For all four geometries, IMRT and XMRT solutions were comparable in terms of target coverage. For two of the geometries, IMRT provided an advantage in terms of reduced dose to the healthy structures. XMRT showed improved dose reduction to healthy organs for one geometry and a comparable dose distribution to IMRT for the remaining geometry. The inability to exploit the benefits of using multiple energies may be attributed to limited water phantom diameter and having the majority of the organs in close proximity to the transverse axis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Thermal Energy Storage Model Development within the Integrated Energy Systems Hybrid Repository

This publication details newly created energy storage models developed within the HYBRID Modelica repository as part of the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, led by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Model development to-date includes creation of dynamic systems-level models of concrete, latent heat, and packed-bed thermocline energy storage technologies for deployment in the IES-based HYBRID repository. Models are developed using the latest publicly available data and incorporate the possibility of control strategy inclusion for use with the existing IES modeling, analysis, and optimization toolset. Simulations showcase the abilities of each technology to cyclically charge and discharge when exposed to time-varying boundary conditions. In addition, low-level surrogate models for some of the thermal energy storage technologies were created using Python. These lower order Python files are much cheaper to run (i.e., computationally faster) and thus operate well when incorporated within the stochastic optimization problems run for the IES program. Moreover, economic data was collected for use within the INL-developed Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). This information is incorporated within the FORCE platform. This work has resulted in creation of systems-level models for concrete, latent heat, and thermocline thermal energy storage systems with associated control systems. Now that these models are available, they can be utilized within different integrated energy park concepts to understand optimal system operation, control, and dispatching. Moreover, given the generic nature of the models, industrial partner technologies (e.g., Storworks Power, EnergyNest) can be quickly added to the repository using the existing models as a basis. Additional dynamic models for thermal energy storage concepts can be developed and added to the HYBRID repository as needed.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Fast model-based scenario optimization in NSTX-U enabled by analytic gradient computation

Model-based optimization offers a systematic approach to advanced scenario planning. In this case, the feedforward-control inputs (actuator trajectories) that are needed to attain and sustain a desired scenario are obtained by solving a nonlinear constrained optimization problem. This class of problems generally minimize a cost function that measures the difference between desired and actual plasma states. Several numerical optimization algorithms, such as sequential quadratic programming, require repeated calculation of the cost function gradients with respect to the input trajectories. Calculating these gradients numerically can be computationally intensive, increasing the time needed to solve the feedforward-control optimization problem. Here, this work introduces a method to analytically calculate these cost function gradients from the current profile evolution model. This can significantly reduce the computational time and allow for fast feedforward-control optimization, which would eventually enable optimal scenario planning between discharges. The performance of the feedforward optimizer with analytical gradients is compared to a traditional optimization algorithm based on numerical gradients for different NSTX-U scenarios. The plasma dynamics in the optimization algorithm are simulated using the Control Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM). Results of the work show that analytical gradients consistently reduce the computation time while achieving trajectories that are comparable to those obtained by traditional optimization algorithms based on numerical gradients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

TU-AB-303-01: A Feasibility Study for Dynamic Adaptive Therapy of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To compare plans for NSCLC optimized using Dynamic Adaptive Therapy (DAT) with conventional IMRT optimization. DAT adapts plans based on changes in the target volume by using dynamic programing techniques to consider expected changes into the optimization process. Information gathered during treatment, e.g. from CBCT, is incorporated into the optimization. Methods and materials: DAT is formulated using stochastic control formalism, which minimizes the total expected number of tumor cells at the end of a treatment course subject to uncertainty inherent in the tumor response and organs-at-risk (OAR) dose constraints. This formulation allows for non-stationary dose distribution as well as non-stationary fractional dose as needed to achieve a series of optimal plans that are conformal to tumor over time. Sixteen phantom cases with various sizes and locations of tumors, and OAR geometries were generated. Each case was planned with DAT and conventional IMRT (60Gy/30fx). Tumor volume change over time was obtained by using, daily MVCT-based, two-level cell population model. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed for each treatment course to account for uncertainty in tumor response. Same OAR dose constraints were applied for both methods. The frequency of plan modification was varied to 1, 2, 5 (weekly), and 29 (daily). The final average tumor dose and OAR doses have been compared to quantify the potential benefit of DAT. Results: The average tumor max, min, mean, and D95 resulted from DAT were 124.0–125.2%, 102.1–114.7%, 113.7–123.4%, and 102.0–115.9% (range dependent on the frequency of plan modification) of those from conventional IMRT. Cord max, esophagus max, lung mean, heart mean, and unspecified tissue D05 resulted from AT were 84–102.4%, 99.8–106.9%, 66.9–85.6%, 58.2–78.8%, and 85.2–94.0% of those from conventional IMRT. Conclusions: Significant tumor dose increase and OAR dose reduction, especially with parallel OAR with mean or dose-volume constraints, can be achieved using DAT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗