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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Specifying design conservatism: Worst case versus probabilistic analysis

Design conservatism is the difference between specified and required performance, and is introduced when uncertainty is present. The classical approach of worst-case analysis for specifying design conservatism is presented, along with the modern approach of probabilistic analysis. The appropriate degree of design conservatism is a tradeoff between the required resources and the probability and consequences of a failure. A probabilistic analysis properly models this tradeoff, while a worst-case analysis reveals nothing about the probability of failure, and can significantly overstate the consequences of failure. Two aerospace examples will be presented that illustrate problems that can arise with a worst-case analysis.

Miles, Ralph F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Prototype Conflict Alerting Logic for Free Flight

This paper discusses the development of a prototype alerting system for a conceptual Free Flight environment. The concept assumes that datalink between aircraft is available and that conflicts are primarily resolved on the flight deck. Four alert stages are generated depending on the likelihood of a conflict. If the conflict is not resolved by the flight crews, Air Traffic Control is notified to take over separation authority. The alerting logic is based on probabilistic analysis through modeling of aircraft sensor and trajectory uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulations were used over a range of encounter situations to determine conflict probability. The four alert stages were then defined based on probability of conflict and on the number of avoidance maneuvers available to the flight crew. Preliminary results from numerical evaluations and from a piloted simulator study at NASA Ames Research Center are summarized.

Yang, Lee C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Accelerated Life Structural Benchmark Testing for a Stirling Convertor Heater Head

For proposed long-duration NASA Space Science missions, the Department of Energy, Lockheed Martin, Infinia Corporation, and NASA Glenn Research Center are developing a high-efficiency, 110 W Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110). A structurally significant limit state for the SRG110 heater head component is creep deformation induced at high material temperature and low stress level. Conventional investigations of creep behavior adequately rely on experimental results from uniaxial creep specimens, and a wealth of creep data is available for the Inconel 718 material of construction. However, the specified atypical thin heater head material is fine-grained with a heat treatment that limits precipitate growth, and little creep property data for this microstructure is available in the literature. In addition, the geometry and loading conditions apply a multiaxial stress state on the component, far from the conditions of uniaxial testing. For these reasons, an extensive experimental investigation is ongoing to aid in accurately assessing the durability of the SRG110 heater head. This investigation supplements uniaxial creep testing with pneumatic testing of heater head-like pressure vessels at design temperature with stress levels ranging from approximately the design stress to several times that. This paper presents experimental results, post-test microstructural analyses, and conclusions for four higher-stress, accelerated life tests. Analysts are using these results to calibrate deterministic and probabilistic analytical creep models of the SRG110 heater head.

Krause, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Structural Benchmark Testing for Stirling Convertor Heater Heads

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has identified high efficiency Stirling technology for potential use on long duration Space Science missions such as Mars rovers, deep space missions, and lunar applications. For the long life times required, a structurally significant design limit for the Stirling convertor heater head is creep deformation induced even under relatively low stress levels at high material temperatures. Conventional investigations of creep behavior adequately rely on experimental results from uniaxial creep specimens, and much creep data is available for the proposed Inconel-718 (IN-718) and MarM-247 nickel-based superalloy materials of construction. However, very little experimental creep information is available that directly applies to the atypical thin walls, the specific microstructures, and the low stress levels. In addition, the geometry and loading conditions apply multiaxial stress states on the heater head components, far from the conditions of uniaxial testing. For these reasons, experimental benchmark testing is underway to aid in accurately assessing the durability of Stirling heater heads. The investigation supplements uniaxial creep testing with pneumatic testing of heater head test articles at elevated temperatures and with stress levels ranging from one to seven times design stresses. This paper presents experimental methods, results, post-test microstructural analyses, and conclusions for both accelerated and non-accelerated tests. The Stirling projects use the results to calibrate deterministic and probabilistic analytical creep models of the heater heads to predict their life times.

Krause, David L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integration of Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment

INTRODUCTION: A probabilistic decision support model such as the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes an immense amount of input data that necessitates a systematic, integrated approach for data collection, and management. As a result of this approach, IMM is able to forecasts medical events, resource utilization and crew health during space flight. METHODS: Inflight data is the most desirable input for the Integrated Medical Model. Non-attributable inflight data is collected from the Lifetime Surveillance for Astronaut Health study as well as the engineers, flight surgeons, and astronauts themselves. When inflight data is unavailable cohort studies, other models and Bayesian analyses are used, in addition to subject matters experts input on occasion. To determine the quality of evidence of a medical condition, the data source is categorized and assigned a level of evidence from 1-5; the highest level is one. The collected data reside and are managed in a relational SQL database with a web-based interface for data entry and review. The database is also capable of interfacing with outside applications which expands capabilities within the database itself. Via the public interface, customers can access a formatted Clinical Findings Form (CLiFF) that outlines the model input and evidence base for each medical condition. Changes to the database are tracked using a documented Configuration Management process. DISSCUSSION: This strategic approach provides a comprehensive data management plan for IMM. The IMM Database s structure and architecture has proven to support additional usages. As seen by the resources utilization across medical conditions analysis. In addition, the IMM Database s web-based interface provides a user-friendly format for customers to browse and download the clinical information for medical conditions. It is this type of functionality that will provide Exploratory Medicine Capabilities the evidence base for their medical condition list. CONCLUSION: The IMM Database in junction with the IMM is helping NASA aerospace program improve the health care and reduce risk for the astronauts crew. Both the database and model will continue to expand to meet customer needs through its multi-disciplinary evidence based approach to managing data. Future expansion could serve as a platform for a Space Medicine Wiki of medical conditions.

Saile, Lyn↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Unobtrusive System to Measure, Assess, and Predict Cognitive Workload in Real-World Environments

Across many careers, individuals face alternating periods of high and low attention and cognitive workload, which can result in impaired cognitive functioning and can be detrimental to job performance. For example, some professions (e.g., fire fighters, emergency medical personnel, doctors and nurses working in an emergency room, pilots) require long periods of low workload (boredom), followed by sudden, high-tempo operations during which they may be required to respond to an emergency and perform at peak cognitive levels. Conversely, other professions (e.g., air traffic controllers, market investors in financial industries, analysts) require long periods of high workload and multitasking during which the addition of just one more task results in cognitive overload resulting in mistakes. An unobtrusive system to measure, assess, and predict cognitive workload could warn individuals, their teammates, or their supervisors when steps should be taken to augment cognitive readiness. In this talk I will describe an approach to this problem that we have found to be successful across work domains including: (1) a suite of unobtrusive, field-ready neurophysiological, physiological, and behavioral sensors that are chosen to best suit the target environment; (2) custom algorithms and statistical techniques to process and time-align raw data originating from the sensor suite; (3) probabilistic and statistical models designed to interpret the data into the human state of interest (e.g., cognitive workload, attention, fatigue); (4) and machine-learning techniques to predict upcoming performance based on the current pattern of events, and (5) display of each piece of information depending on the needs of the target user who may or may not want to drill down into the functioning of the system to determine how conclusions about human state and performance are determined. I will then focus in on our experimental results from our custom functional near-infrared spectroscopy sensor, designed to operate in real-world environments to be worn comfortably (e.g., positioned into a baseball cap or a surgeons cap) to measure changes in brain blood oxygenation without adding burden to the individual being assessed.

workload collection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How Autonomous Intelligent Systems Can Facilitate Earth-independent Medical Care: Going Beyond Telepresence

During the last decade, teleoperated robotic systems have extended humans’ sensorimotor competence to digitally fly beyond the physical barrier of distance and scale and thus transmit sensorimotor skills of the human through direct communication. Telepresence capabilities have enabled tele-physical remote access at small scales thanks to telerobotic mediums. Although the concept was initially motivated by space applications, such technologies quickly have expanded into the medical domain and resulted in teleoperated medical robots, including telerobotic surgical systems (such as the da Vinci surgical system). Effective telepresence fundamentally depends on an agile, reliable, and secure communication medium that can transmit real-time information between the operator and a remote device. However, direct telepresence may not be achievable for long-duration exploration spaceflight missions. Thus, autonomous systems and local intelligence represent potential solutions to the aforementioned issues. One example solution employs demonstration systems which enable learning from the pre-captured inputs of a skilled human operator. These will be computationally modeled and later probabilistically replicated toward the completion of remote physical tasks when direct telepresence is not viable - such as under communication blackout conditions. In other words, trained autonomous systems (e.g., robots) can perform remote operations that mimic the physical performance of experts during remote operations/training. Beyond learning the physics of the task, autonomous agents can also be used to conduct algorithmic decision-making that mimics the higher-level cognition of the expert. Thus, using an autonomous system, pre-trained cognitive and manipulation-based skills can be leveraged (acquired during pre-mission events) to produce digital twins of an intelligent operator. Such systems can be used for the real-time conduction of intricate tasks in complex and unstructured environments. Such systems will operationalize “cognitive digital twins” and can expand the reach of human cognition and manipulation through the power of data-driven learning from demonstration algorithms. This system category will be discussed as a fully autonomous operation in this talk. In addition to the above, we will also propose and discuss the possibility of partial-automation using remote intelligence and remote sensing. In contrast to full automation, partial automation can close the loop through a local operator equipped with augmented sensory awareness through wearable systems. Such technologies will allow the local operator to conduct delicate tasks while being guided using sensory augmentation and being monitored to gauge her/his level of cognitive focus and performance. The difference with the previous category is that a remote human will conduct the task. Further, rather than making a digital twin of human cognition, we will augment the control inputs of the local human to match those of the skilled expert operator who is not accessible in real-time. Going beyond classic telepresence and thus approaching intelligent telepresence, our vision is that autonomous agents will eventually enable the safe, consistent and efficient delivery of complex, remote and smart medical care during space exploration across operators in an Earth-independent fashion. We will discuss our collective vision from NASA and MERIIT@NYU lab in this talk.

Telepresence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Crew Medical Officer Preparedness for International Space Station Missions

INTRODUCTION Astronaut crew medical officers (CMO) undergo additional, specialized training to provide medical support onboard the International Space Station (ISS). CMO training focuses on utilizing resources on-station and optimizing communication with ground-based expertise to manage both common minor conditions as well as emergency/trauma situations. As NASA moves towards future Artemis and exploration class missions, we sought CMO perspectives on past, present, and future CMO training and medical resourcing to help inform mission planners regarding medical risk mitigation considerations. We present an interview-based qualitative assessment of CMO preparedness for the International Space Station with the aim to help iterate future training flows for Low Earth Orbit, Artemis, and exploration-class missions. METHODS A semi-structured interview tool was developed to assess CMO experience and their recommendations for future mission training considerations. Participants were recruited from former or current US astronauts who were designated as CMO and subsequently flew to the International Space Station. 10 former CMOs took part in the study. Interview transcripts were deidentified and evaluated for qualitative thematic analysis by two independent coders with NVivo Software suite (Lumivero, Denver, CO), and emergent themes were compiled. RESULTS Former CMO crew expressed appropriate preparedness for current ISS medical capabilities and requirements. They identified the role of the CMO as serving as a healthcare extender to ground-based flight surgeons for ISS and other LEO missions. Individuals with prior medical experience were preferred though not felt to be necessary for LEO missions. For exploration class missions with limitations in ground communication, a physician-as-CMO and more rigorous training curricula for both the CMO and astronaut crew were desired. DISCUSSION Former NASA astronaut crew were interviewed to retrospectively assess their preparedness as ISS crew medical officers and hypothesize future medical knowledge, skill, and ability needs. Along with medical operations subject matter expert opinion and advanced probabilistic risk assessment modeling, past CMO experience can help inform future CMO training considerations and responsibilities for future Artemis and exploration class missions.

M A Labarbera↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic error estimation for non-intrusive reduced models learned from data of systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations

This work derives a residual-based a posteriori error estimator for reduced models learned with non-intrusive model reduction from data of high-dimensional systems governed by linear parabolic partial differential equations with control inputs. It is shown that quantities that are necessary for the error estimator can be either obtained exactly as the solutions of least-squares problems in a non-intrusive way from data such as initial conditions, control inputs, and high-dimensional solution trajectories or bounded in a probabilistic sense. Here, the computational procedure follows an offline/online decomposition. In the offline (training) phase, the high-dimensional system is judiciously solved in a black-box fashion to generate data and to set up the error estimator. In the online phase, the estimator is used to bound the error of the reduced-model predictions for new initial conditions and new control inputs without recourse to the high-dimensional system. Numerical results demonstrate the workflow of the proposed approach from data to reduced models to certified predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Abstract Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state‐of‐the‐art knowledge in an internally self‐consistent modeling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain‐specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low‐emissions SSP1‐1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850–1900, using an observationally based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850–1900 and 1995–2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above preindustrial in the long‐term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling↗
NASA NTRS1989

Fatigue crack growth model RANDOM2 user manual, appendix 1

The FORTRAN program RANDOM2 is documented. RANDOM2 is based on fracture mechanics using a probabilistic fatigue crack growth model. It predicts the random lifetime of an engine component to reach a given crack size. Included in this user manual are details regarding the theoretical background of RANDOM2, input data, instructions and a sample problem illustrating the use of RANDOM2. Appendix A gives information on the physical quantities, their symbols, FORTRAN names, and both SI and U.S. Customary units. Appendix B includes photocopies of the actual computer printout corresponding to the sample problem. Appendices C and D detail the IMSL, Ver. 10(1), subroutines and functions called by RANDOM2 and a SAS/GRAPH(2) program that can be used to plot both the probability density function (p.d.f.) and the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.).

Boyce, Lola↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION OF PHYSICAL SECURITY EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON DYNAMIC FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELING

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants (NPPs). It reviews the conservatisms in conventional physical security posture and regulations. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). The dynamic assessment methodology leverages EMRALD to process results of force-on-force (FOF) simulations and crediting safety mitigation actions from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models as well as diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) mitigation strategies. Timing information from these simulations are compared against the available time to perform mitigations obtained from Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5) simulations. To illustrate the methodology, a station blackout (SBO) attack scenario was modeled in commercially available FOF simulation tools. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes and as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD, and were dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. RELAP5 simulations incorporating human and hardware uncertainties were performed to estimate the distribution of time-to-core damage. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, plant mitigation strategies provide significantly high-likelihood of preventing radiological release. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1992

Structural reliability assessment capability in NESSUS

The principal capabilities of NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress), an advanced computer code developed for probabilistic structural response analysis, are reviewed, and its structural reliability assessed. The code combines flexible structural modeling tools with advanced probabilistic algorithms in order to compute probabilistic structural response and resistance, component reliability and risk, and system reliability and risk. An illustrative numerical example is presented.

Millwater, H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗