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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Model predictive control of parametric excited pitch-surge modes in wave energy converters

A parametric excitation dynamic model is used for a three degrees-of-freedom (3-DOF) wave energy converter. Since the heave motion is uncoupled from the pitch and surge modes, the pitch-surge equations of motion can be treated as a linear time varying system, or a linear system with parametric excitation. In such case the parametric exciting frequency can be tuned to twice the natural frequency of the system for higher energy harvesting. A parametric excited 3-DOF wave energy converter can harvest more power, for both regular and irregular waves, compared to the linear 3-DOF. For example, in a Bretschneider wave, the harvested energy in the three modes is about 3.8 times the energy harvested in the heave mode alone; while the same device produces about 3.1 times the heave mode energy when using a linear 3-DOF model.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1987

The Martian Hadley circulation - Comparison of 'viscous' model predictions to observations

A comparison is conducted between the results of an analytical, steady, thermally-forced viscous model for the Martian atmosphere's zonally-averaged global circulation and observations of aeolian feature directions and atmospheric temperatures. While the observed northeasterly surface winds at high northern latitudes could be produced by possible CO2 fluxes from the northern polar cap, and southern latitudes' thermal structure during this storm is well reproduced, a major discrepancy is noted between predictions and observations of the middle northern latitudes' temperature structure.

Magalhaes, Julio A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Composite Analysis Special Analysis: P2R Model Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulations - Sensitivity Case

This environmental calculation file (ECF) documents the methodologies, assumptions, and results of predictive fate and transport simulations using the Plateau-to-River (P2R) model. This ECF supports the reevaluation of the representativeness of solid-waste radionuclide inventory and release rate from three solid waste sites included in the recently completed Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) (DOE-RL-2019-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau (FY 2020)). Specifically, this ECF supports the reevaluation of the representativeness of the base case inventory and radionuclide waste release rates from three solid waste sites (i.e., 218-E-12B, 218-W-3A and 218-W-3AE) and two radionuclides (carbon-14 [C-14] and technetium [Tc-99]). These three waste sites and two radionuclides were identified as being the most significant contributors to groundwater contamination and dose in the CA at time periods after the compliance period. The release rates and footprints of the releases from the vadose zone are implemented in the fate and transport modeling utilizing the HSS package.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of model predictions with LDEF satellite radiation measurements

Some early results are summarized from a program under way to utilize Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) satellite data for evaluating and improving current models of the space radiation environment in low Earth orbit. Reported here are predictions and comparisons with some of the LDEF dose and induced radioactivity data, which are used to check the accuracy of current models describing the magnitude and directionality of the trapped proton environment. Preliminary findings are that the environment models underestimate both dose and activation from trapped protons by a factor of about two, and the observed anisotropy is higher than predicted.

Armstrong, T. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Informed Local Climate Action by Improving Access to DOE Predictive Modeling and Science-Based Tools

The threat of climate change is becoming increasingly urgent, and local governments across the United States are working to develop and implement climate action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science, Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) has been developing a range of tools and technologies to help predict the potential multi-faceted impacts from climate change given varying environmental and socioeconomic scenarios. However, local governments have been slow to engage with these scientific assets due to a lack of understanding and awareness. The DOE researchers interviewed highlighted three primary types of resources that could benefit local governments and climate practitioners: climate models, modeled datasets, and scientific journal articles. Although many of these resources are open source and available to the public, there were several challenges identified in translating these resources and their research insights directly to decision-makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Multi-Satellite Measurements and Model Predictions of Mesospheric and Upper Stratospheric Influences from the Very Large July 14-16, 2000, Solar Proton Event

A large solar flare with an associated coronal mass ejection occurred in mid-July and caused a very large solar proton event at the earth in the time period July 14-16, 2000. So far this is the largest solar storm of solar cycle 23. The solar proton fluxes were measured by instruments aboard the GOES-10 satellite and used in our proton energy deposition model to help quantify the energy input to the middle atmosphere during this large solar event. Using this computed energy deposition in the GSFC 2D atmospheric model resulted in a prediction of $>$ 20\% increases in HO$-(x)$ (H, OH, HO$-(2)$) and $>$ 100\% increases in NO$-(x)$ (N, NO, NO$-(2)$) constituents in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere at polar latitudes ($>$ 60 degrees geomagnetic). Both the HO$-(x)$ and NO$_fx)$ increases impacted ozone. Large atmospheric impacts have been measured with the NOAA 14 SBUV/2 instrument (0$_(3)$), the UARS HALOE instrument (NO, NO$-(2)$, 0$-(3)$), and the POAM III instrument (0$_{3}$, NO$-(2)$). Preliminary analysis indicates that measured (SBUV/2) and modelled 0$_{3}$ decreases from this solar event are generally in agreement in the Northern Hemisphere. Short-term ozone changes (during the event) indicate $\sim$ 15% reduction at 2 hPa ($\sim$ 45 km) up to $\sim$ 40% reduction at 0.5 hPa ($\sim$ 55 km). A longer-term ozone depletion of $\sim$ 5% is indicated between 4 and 2 hPa ($\sim$ 40-45 km). The middle atmospheric changes caused by this solar event were very large and occurred fairly quickly ($\sim$ 1-2 days). Such a significant natural perturbation provides a good test of our understanding of the middle atmosphere. The measured and modelled impacts of this solar event will be compared and discussed in this paper.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Application of thermal life prediction model to high-temperature aerospace alloys B1900+Hf and Haynes 188

The results of the application of a newly proposed thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction method to a series of laboratory TMF results on two high-temperature aerospace engine alloys are presented. The method, referred to as TMF/TS-SRP, is based on three relatively recent developments: the total strain version of the method of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), the bithermal testing technique for characterizing TMF behavior, and advanced viscoplastic constitutive models. The high-temperature data reported in a companion publication are used to evaluate the constants in the model and to provide the TMF verification data to check its accuracy. Predicted lives are in agreement with the experimental lives to within a factor of approximately 2.

Halford, Gary R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Application of a thermal fatigue life prediction model to high-temperature aerospace alloys B1900 + Hf and Haynes 188

The results of the application of a newly proposed thermomechanical fatigue (TMF) life prediction method to a series of laboratory TMF results on two high-temperature aerospace engine alloys are presented. The method, referred to as TMF/TS-SRP, is based on three relatively recent developments: the total strain version of the method of Strain Range Partitioning (TS-SRP), the bithermal testing technique for characterizing TMF behavior, and advanced viscoplastic constitutive models. The high-temperature data reported in a companion publication are used to evaluate the constants in the model and to provide the TMF verification data to check its accuracy. Predicted lives are in agreement with the experimental lives to within a factor of approximately 2.

Halford, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Development of thermomechanical life prediction models for thermal barrier coatings

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) for turbine airfoils in high-performance engines represent an advanced materials technology with both performance and durability benefits. The foremost TBC benefit is the reduction of heat transferred into air-cooled components. To achieve these benefits, however, the TBC system must be reliable. Mechanistic thermomechanical and thermochemical life models and statistically significant design data are therefore required for the reliable exploitation of TBC benefits on gas turbine airfoils. Garrett's NASA-HOST Program (NAS3-23945) is designed to fulfill these requirements. This program focuses on predicting the lives of two types of strain-tolerant and oxidation-resistant TBC systems that are produced by commercial coating suppliers to the gas turbine industry. The plasma-sprayed TBC system, composed of a low-pressure plasma-spray (LPPS) applied oxidation resistant NiCrAlY bond coating, and an air-plasma-sprayed yttria partially stabilized zirconia insulated layer is applied by both Chromalloy and Klock. The second type of TBC is applied by the electron beam-physical vapor deposition process by Temescal. Thermomechanical life models are being tailored to predict TBC strain tolerance in terms of materials, engine, and mission parameters. Continuum and fracture mechanics approaches and statistical methods are being evaluated to develop tensile and compressive strain functions required to drive a mission analysis capable thermomechanical life model for TBCs. Results of initial testing to calibrate these life models will be presented.

Strangman, T. E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces in the Λ CDM cosmological model but favor more lensing than the model predicts

Here, we study the performance of three pairs of tilted, and a pair of untilited, ΛCDM cosmological models, with three of these four pairs allowing for non-flat spatial hypersurfaces, against cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization power spectrum data (P18), measurements of the Planck 2018 lensing potential power spectrum (lensing), and a large compilation of non-CMB data (non-CMB). For the eight models, we measure cosmological parameters and study whether or not pairs of the data sets (as well as subsets of them) are mutually consistent in these models. Half of these models allow the lensing consistency parameter A L , which re-scales the gravitational potential power spectrum, to be an additional free parameter to be determined from data, while the other three have A L = 1 which is the theoretically expected value. The pair of untilted non-flat ΛCDM models are incompatible with P18 data. The tilted spatially-flat models assume the usual primordial spatial inhomogeneity power spectrum that is a power law in wave number. The tilted non-flat models assume either the primordial power spectrum used in the Planck group anal yses [Planck P(q)], that has recently been numerically shown to be a good approximation to what is quantum-mechanically generated from a particular choice of closed inflation model initial conditions, or a recently computed power spectrum [new P(q)] that quantum-mechanically follows from a different set of non-flat inflation model initial conditions. In the tilted non-flat models with A L = 1 we find differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological parameter constraints, which are large enough to rule out the Planck P(q) model at 3σ but not the new P(q) model. No significant differences are found when cosmological parameter constraints obtained with two different data sets are compared within the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. While both P18 data and non-CMB data separately favor a closed geometry, with spatial curvature density parameter Ω k < 0, when P18+non-CMB data are jointly analyzed the evidence in favor of non-flat hypersurfaces subsides. Differences between P18 data and non-CMB data cosmological constraints subside when A L is allowed to vary. From the most restrictive P18+lensing+non-CMB data combination we get almost model-independent constraints on the cosmological parameters and find that the A L > 1 option is preferred over the Ω k < 0 one, with the A L parameter, for all models, being larger than unity by ~ 2.5σ. According to the deviance information criterion, in the P18+lensing+non-CMB analysis, the varying A L option is on the verge of being strongly favored over the A L = 1 one, which could indicate a problem for the standard tilted flat ΛCDM model. These data are consistent with flat spatial hypersurfaces but more and better data could improve the constraints on Ω k and might alter this conclusion. Error bars on some cosmological parameters are significantly reduced when non-CMB data are used jointly with P18+lensing data. For example, in the tilted flat ΛCDM model for P18+lensing+non-CMB data the Hubble constant H 0 = 68.09 ± 0.38 km s -1 Mpc -1 , which is consistent with that from a median statistics analysis of a large compilation of H 0 measurements as well as with a number of local measurements of the cosmological expansion rate. This H 0 error bar is 31% smaller than that from P18+lensing data alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1995

Sensitivity of two-dimensional model predictions of ozone response to stratospheric aircraft: An update

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) two-dimensional model of stratospheric photochemistry and dynamics has been used to calculate the O3 response to stratospheric aircraft (high-speed civil transport (HSCT)) emissions. The sensitivity of the model O3 response was examined for systematic variations of five parameters and two reaction rates over a wide range, expanding on calculations by various modeling groups for the NASA High Speed Research Program and the World Meteorological Organization. In all, 448 model runs were required to test the effects of variations in the latitude, altitude, and magnetitude of the aircraft emissions perturbation, the background chlorine levels, the background sulfate aerosol surface area densities, and the rates of two key reactions. No deviation from previous conclusions concerning the response of O3 to HSCTs was found in this more exhaustive exploration of parameter space. Maximum O3 depletions occur for high-altitude, low altitude HSCT perturbations. Small increases in global total O3 can occur for low-altitude, high-altitude injections. Decreasing aerosol surface area densities and background chlorine levels increases the sensitivity of model O3 to the HSCT perturbations. The location of the aircraft emissions is the most important determinant of the model response. Response to the location of the HSCT emissions is not changed qualitatively by changes in background chlorine and aerosol loading. The response is also not very sensitive to changes in the rates of the reactions NO + HO2 yields NO2 + OH and HO2 + O3 yields OH + 2O2 over the limits of their respective uncertainties. Finally, levels of lower stratospheric HO(sub x) generally decrease when the HSCT perturbation is included, even though there are large increases in H2O due to the perturbation.

Considine, David B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-modelling predictions show high uncertainty of required carbon input changes to reach a 4‰ target

Soils store vast amounts of carbon (C) on land, and increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in already managed soils such as croplands may be one way to remove C from the atmosphere, thereby limiting subsequent warming. The main objective of this study was to estimate the amount of additional C input needed to annually increase SOC stocks by 4‰ at 16 long-term agricultural experiments in Europe, including exogenous organic matter (EOM) additions. We used an ensemble of six SOC models and ran them under two configurations: (1) with default parametrization and (2) with parameters calibrated site-by-site to fit the evolution of SOC stocks in the control treatments (without EOM). We compared model simulations and analysed the factors generating variability across models. The calibrated ensemble was able to reproduce the SOC stock evolution in the unfertilised control treatments. We found that, on average, the experimental sites needed an additional 1.5 ± 1.2 Mg C ha -1 year -1 to increase SOC stocks by 4‰ per year over 30 years, compared to the C input in the control treatments (multi-model median ± median standard deviation across sites). That is, a 119% increase compared to the control. While mean annual temperature, initial SOC stocks and initial C input had a significant effect on the variability of the predicted C input in the default configuration (i.e., the relative standard deviation of the predicted C input from the mean), only water-related variables (i.e., mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) explained the divergence between models when calibrated. Here, our work highlights the challenge of increasing SOC stocks in agriculture and accentuates the need to increasingly lean on multi-model ensembles when predicting SOC stock trends and related processes. To increase the reliability of SOC models under future climate change, we suggest model developers to better constrain the effect of water-related variables on SOC decomposition.

4 per 1000 initiative↗
NASA NTRS1976

Model predictions of latitude-dependent ozone depletion due to aerospace vehicle operations

Results are presented from a two-dimensional model of the stratosphere that simulates the seasonal movement of ozone by both wind and eddy transport, and contains all the chemistry known to be important. The calculated reductions in ozone due to NO2 injection from a fleet of supersonic transports are compared with the zonally averaged results of a three-dimensional model for a similar episode of injection. The agreement is good in the northern hemisphere, but is not as good in the southern hemisphere. Both sets of calculations show a strong corridor effect in that the predicted ozone depletions are largest to the north of the flight corridor for aircraft operating in the northern hemisphere.

Borucki, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Model predictions of latitude-dependent ozone depletion due to supersonic transport operations

Results are presented from a two-dimensional model of the stratosphere that simulates the seasonal movement of ozone by both wind and eddy transport, and contains all the chemistry known to be important. The calculated reductions in ozone due to NO2 injection from a fleet of supersonic transports are compared with the zonally averaged results of a three-dimensional model for a similar episode of injection. The agreement is good in the northern hemisphere, but is not as good in the southern hemisphere. Both sets of calculations show a strong corridor effect in that the predicted ozone depletions are largest to the north of the flight corridor for aircraft operating in the northern hemisphere.

Borucki, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Bioenergy sorghum crop model predicts VPD-limited transpiration traits enhance biomass yield in water-limited environments

Bioenergy sorghum is targeted for production in water-limited annual cropland therefore traits that improve plant water capture, water use efficiency, and resilience to water deficit are necessary to maximize productivity. A crop modeling framework, APSIM, was adapted to predict the growth and biomass yield of energy sorghum and to identify potentially useful traits for crop improvement. APSIM simulations of energy sorghum development and biomass accumulation replicated results from field experiments across multiple years, patterns of rainfall, and irrigation schemes. Modeling showed that energy sorghum’s long duration of vegetative growth increased water capture and biomass yield by ~30% compared to short season crops in a water-limited production region. Additionally, APSIM was extended to enable modeling of VPD-limited transpiration traits that reduce crop water use under high vapor pressure deficits (VPDs). The response of transpiration rate to increasing VPD was modeled as a linear response until a VPD threshold was reached, at which the slope of the response decreases, representing a range of responses to VPD observed in sorghum germplasm. Simulation results indicated that the VPD-limited transpiration trait is most beneficial in hot and dry regions of production where crops are exposed to extended periods without rainfall during the season or to a terminal drought. In these environments, slower but more efficient transpiration increases biomass yield and prevents or delays the exhaustion of soil water and onset of leaf senescence. The VPD-limited transpiration responses observed in sorghum germplasm increased biomass accumulation by 20% in years with lower summer rainfall, and the ability to drastically reduce transpiration under high VPD conditions could increase biomass by 6% on average across all years. This work indicates that the productivity and resilience of bioenergy sorghum grown in water-limited environments could be further enhanced by development of genotypes with optimized VPD-limited transpiration traits and deployment of these crops in water limited growing environments. As a result, the energy sorghum model and VPD-limited transpiration trait implementation aremade available to simulate performance in other target environments.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗