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DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Subsurface Performance of a Geothermal Reservoir Using Machine Learning

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells—increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells—and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. In this study, we describe a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable such a strategy. Our computational approach allows us, first, to translate sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy, and second, to find optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an “open-source” reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 h, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 s. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Calibration of Groundwater Table Depth in ELM: Impact on Land Surface Hydrology and Land‐Atmosphere Fluxes

Accurate representation of groundwater table depth (GWTD) is crucial for simulating hydrological cycling in Earth system models (ESM). Nevertheless, there is a notable gap in the literature regarding the validation of GWTD simulations in ESMs and their subsequent impact on downstream hydrological components. This study explores the calibration of parameterization of global GWTD using machine learning within the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Despite achieving significant gains in simulating GWTD through calibration, offline ELM simulations unexpectedly show that these improvements do not translate to substantial enhancements in model performance for other key hydrological variables, including soil moisture (SM), runoff, groundwater contribution to runoff or base flow index (BFI), and evapotranspiration and its partitioning. The performance in SM and runoff was even degraded in some regions, while BFI was mostly overestimated. Although there is significant improvement in GWTD within the critical range of 1–5 m, where groundwater traditionally influences land surface energy fluxes, these improvements occurred mostly in humid areas where the impact of GWTD on surface processes is minimal. Although the impacts of model calibration are generally small in offline ELM simulations, coupled land-atmosphere simulations exhibit much stronger responses to GWTD calibration, highlighting the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks in Earth system modeling. These findings underscore the need for integrated calibration strategies that simultaneously optimize multiple hydrological variables. However, if a single-variable approach is necessary, it is crucial to establish clear priorities for calibration, identifying the most critical variables that have the greatest impact on overall model performance.

Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

DOE OSTI2021

Improving protein tertiary structure prediction by deep learning and distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract Substantial progresses in protein structure prediction have been made by utilizing deep‐learning and residue‐residue distance prediction since CASP13. Inspired by the advances, we improve our CASP14 MULTICOM protein structure prediction system by incorporating three new components: (a) a new deep learning‐based protein inter‐residue distance predictor to improve template‐free (ab initio) tertiary structure prediction, (b) an enhanced template‐based tertiary structure prediction method, and (c) distance‐based model quality assessment methods empowered by deep learning. In the 2020 CASP14 experiment, MULTICOM predictor was ranked seventh out of 146 predictors in tertiary structure prediction and ranked third out of 136 predictors in inter‐domain structure prediction. The results demonstrate that the template‐free modeling based on deep learning and residue‐residue distance prediction can predict the correct topology for almost all template‐based modeling targets and a majority of hard targets (template‐free targets or targets whose templates cannot be recognized), which is a significant improvement over the CASP13 MULTICOM predictor. Moreover, the template‐free modeling performs better than the template‐based modeling on not only hard targets but also the targets that have homologous templates. The performance of the template‐free modeling largely depends on the accuracy of distance prediction closely related to the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The structural model quality assessment works well on targets for which enough good models can be predicted, but it may perform poorly when only a few good models are predicted for a hard target and the distribution of model quality scores is highly skewed. MULTICOM is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/MULTICOM_Human_CASP14/tree/CASP14_DeepRank3 and https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

X-57 “Maxwell” High-Lift Propeller Testing and Model Development

NASA’s X-57 “Maxwell” distributed electric propulsion flight demonstrator has a high-lift system that includes 12 fixed-pitch high-lift propellers located upstream of the wing leading edge for lift augmentation at low speeds. These high-lift propellers are not required at higher speeds and are folded conformally along the nacelles to reduce drag when not in operation. Aircraft performance models and flight simulations incorporate propeller performance to predict thrust, moments, and power consumption and propeller model accuracy is important in identifying safe operating regimes for this aircraft. Current high-lift propeller performance models have been verified and calibrated against numerous computational fluid dynamics analyses under a variety of flight conditions. We performed a series of full-scale wind tunnel tests at the NASA Langley Research Center Low Speed Aeroacoustic Wind Tunnel to further validate these models, to identify any adverse operating conditions for these propellers, and to assess the accuracy of the facility’s new Propeller Test Stand. The results indicate that the models accurately predicted performance and that the right-handed propeller showed lower torque and thrust for a given propeller speed compared to the left-handed version. Acoustic data support these measurements, showing higher tonal noise for the left versus right propeller. We suspect this is due to slight differences in the material properties between the early production (right) and more recent (left) blade sets leading to greater detwisting in the right-handed blades under load. Both propellers demonstrated very stable operation throughout the test including during deployment, stowing, and windmilling. Furthermore, high-speed imagery of the spinning propeller indicated no blade oscillations or instabilities for any test case. We also leveraged these images to analyze the effects of propeller loading on blade detwisting and tip position. Unfortunately, the thrust measurements varied significantly during the test due to cross-loading of the Propeller Test Stand load cell, though trends in the thrust data were still observable. The torque measurement, however, remained very precise for all test points and was used for performance comparisons. As a result of this test, we validated and improved the X-57 high-lift propeller performance models, obtained detailed propeller acoustic data and high-speed imagery, observed the propeller operating safely during a variety of dynamic events, and identified two potentially adverse, low-propeller-speed conditions which will be avoided during normal aircraft operation.

X-57↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling the performance of the human (pilot) interaction in a synthetic flight domain: Information theoretic approach

Current advances in computing technology are devoid of formal methods that describe the theories of how information is shared between humans and machines. Specifically, in the domain of human-machine interaction, a common mathematical foundation is lacking. The aim of this paper is to propose a formal method of human-machine (H-M) interaction paradigm from the information view point. The methods presented are interpretation- and context-free and can be used both in experimental analysis as well as in modeling problems.

Ntuen, Celestine A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Subsystem Imaging Performance and Modeling of the Infrared Multi-Object Spectrograph

The Infrared Multi-Object Spectrograph (IRMOS) is a facility instrument for the Kitt Peak National Observatory Mayall Telescope (3.8 meter). IRMOS is a near-IR (0.8 - 2.5 micron) spectrograph with low to mid resolution (R=lambda/delta, lambda = 300 - 3800). The IRMOS spectrograph produces simultaneous spectra of - 100 objects in its 2.8 x 2.0 arc-min field of view using a commercial MEMS multi-mirror array device (MMA). The IRMOS optical design consists of two imaging systems, or "stages." The focal reducer, stage one, images the focal plane of the telescope onto the MMA. The spectrograph, stage two, images the MMA onto the detector. We describe the breadboard alignment method and imaging and scattered light performance for both the focal reducer and spectrograph. This testing provides verification of the optomechanical alignment method, and a measurement of the contribution of scattered light in the system due to mirror small scale surface error. After the stage I and 2 optics are integrated with the instrument, our test results will make it possible to distinguish between scattered light from the mirrors and the MMA. Image testing will be done at four wavelengths in the visible and near-IR. A mercury-argon pencil lamp will provide spectral lines at 546.1 and 1012 nm, and a blackbody radiation source lines at 1600 and 2200 nm. A CCD camera will be used as a detector for the visible wavelengths, and an IR photodiode will be used for the IR wavelengths. We compare our data with a theoretical analysis using a commercial software package. Mirror surface error is modeled by treating each surface as a superposition of various gratings (e.g., diamond turning tool marks, features due to the impurities of Al 6061, and periodic mid-frequency errors due to drift during machining).

Connelly, Joseph A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Current Density Durability of Pt/C and PtCo/C Catalysts at Similar Particle Sizes in PEMFCs

The durability of carbon supported PtCo-alloy based nanoparticle catalysts play a key role in the longevity of proton-exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC) in electric vehicle applications. To improve its durability, it is important to understand and mitigate the various factors that cause PtCo-based cathode catalyst layers (CCL) to lose performance over time. These factors include i) electrochemical surface area (ECSA) loss, ii) specific activity loss, iii) H + /O 2 -transport changes and iv) Co 2+ contamination effects. We use a catalyst-specific accelerated stress test (AST) voltage cycling protocol to compare the durability of Pt and PtCo catalysts at similar average nanoparticle size and distribution. Our studies indicate that while Pt and PtCo nanoparticle catalysts suffer from similar magnitudes of electrochemical surface area (ECSA) losses, PtCo catalyst shows a significantly larger cell voltage loss at high current densities upon durability testing. The distinctive factor causing the large cell voltage loss of PtCo catalyst appears to be the secondary effects of the leached Co 2+ cations that contaminate the electrode ionomer. A 1D performance model has been used to quantify the cell voltage losses arising from various factors causing degradation of the membrane electrode assembly (MEA).

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major source of error during these tests was found to be the predicted winds aloft used by CTAS. Position and velocity estimates of the airplane provided to CTAS by the ATC Host radar tracker were found to be a relatively insignificant error source for the trajectory conditions evaluated. Airplane performance modeling errors within CTAS were found to not significantly affect arrival time errors when the constrained descent procedures were used. The most significant effect related to the flight guidance was observed to be the cross-track and turn-overshoot errors associated with conventional VOR guidance. Lateral navigation (LNAV) guidance significantly reduced both the cross-track and turn-overshoot error. Pilot procedures and VNAV guidance were found to significantly reduce the vertical profile errors associated with atmospheric and aircraft performance model errors.

Green, S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of Model Predictions and Performance Test Data for a Prototype Thermal Energy Storage Module

Although model predictions of thermal energy storage (TES) performance have been explored in previous investigations, relevant test data that enable experimental validation of performance models have been limited. This is particularly true for high-performance TES designs that facilitate fast input and extraction of energy. In this paper, we present a summary of experimental tests of a high-performance TES unit using lithium nitrate trihydrate phase change material as a storage medium. Performance data are presented for complete dual-mode cycles consisting of extraction (melting) followed by charging (freezing). These tests simulate the cyclic operation of a TES unit for asynchronous cooling in a variety of applications. Finally, the model analysis is found to agree reasonably well, within 10%, with the experimental data except for conditions very near the initiation of freezing, a consequence of subcooling that is required to initiate solidification.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Isomeric effects on the reactivity of branched alkenes: An experimental and kinetic modeling study of methylbutenes

Here, a detailed experimental study of the low-to-intermediate temperature combustion of methylbutene isomers, i.e., branched C 5 alkenes, has been undertaken with multiple experimental facilities. Ignition delay times were measured at equivalence ratios 0.5–2.0, 685–1020 K and up to 45 bar condition from two rapid compression machines and showed slight deviation from an Arrhenius behavior for all three isomers, while their reactivity order differs as temperature changes. Sampled intermediates formed during the oxidation process of mixtures at 900–1150 K and 0.82 bar from a flow reactor and at 730 K and 20 bar from a rapid compression machine were analyzed using gas chromatography techniques. Trends in the formation and consumption of sampled intermediates were modeled using a kinetic model developed in this work for all three isomers. Rate of production and sensitivity analyses emphasize the role of double bond-specific reactions governing the global reactivity of these fuels. Additional studies of the addition reactions of HO 2 radicals to the double bond and to allylic radicals may improve the model performance.

2-Methyl-1-butene↗

NASA NTRS2022

Modeling and Performance Analysis of the LUVOIR Coronagraph Instrument

Future space missions such as the Large UV/Optical/Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) and the Habitable Exoplanet Observatory, when equipped with coronagraphs with active wavefront control to suppress starlight, will allow the discovery and characterization of habitable exoplanets. The Extreme Coronagraph for Living Planetary Systems (ECLIPS) is the coronagraph instrument on the LUVOIR Surveyor mission concept, an 8- to 15-m segmented telescope. ECLIPS is split into three channels, namely, UV (200 to 400 nm), optical (400 to 850 nm), and near IR (850 nm to 2 μm), with each channel equipped with two deformable mirrors for wavefront control, a suite of coronagraph masks, a low-order/out-of-band wavefront sensor, and separate science imagers and spectrographs. The apodized pupil Lyot coronagraph and the vector vortex coronagraph are the baselined mask technologies for ECLIPS to enable the required 10−10 contrast for observations in the habitable zones of nearby stars for LUVOIR-A (15-m telescope) and LUVOIR-B (8-m telescope), respectively. Their performance depends on active wavefront sensing and control, as well as metrology subsystems to compensate for aberrations induced by segment errors (e.g., piston and tip/tilt), secondary mirror misalignment, and global low-order wavefront errors. Here, we present the latest results of the simulation of these effects for the LUVOIR coronagraph instrument and discuss the achieved contrast for exoplanet detection and characterization after closed-loop wavefront estimation and control algorithms have been applied. Finally, we show simulated observations using high-fidelity spatial and spectral input models of complete planetary systems generated with the Haystacks code framework.

Roser Juanola-Parramon↗

DOE OSTI2020

Semisupervised Learning for Seismic Monitoring Applications

The impressive performance that deep neural networks demonstrate on a range of seismic monitoring tasks depends largely on the availability of event catalogs that have been manually curated over many years or decades. However, the quality, duration, and availability of seismic event catalogs vary significantly across the range of monitoring operations, regions, and objectives. Semisupervised learning (SSL) enables learning from both labeled and unlabeled data and provides a framework to leverage the abundance of unreviewed seismic data for training deep neural networks on a variety of target tasks. We apply two SSL algorithms (mean-teacher and virtual adversarial training) as well as a novel hybrid technique (exponential average adversarial training) to seismic event classification to examine how unlabeled data with SSL can enhance model performance. In general, we find that SSL can perform as well as supervised learning with fewer labels. We also observe in some scenarios that almost half of the benefits of SSL are the result of the meaningful regularization enforced through SSL techniques and may not be attributable to unlabeled data directly. Lastly, the benefits from unlabeled data scale with the difficulty of the predictive task when we evaluate the use of unlabeled data to characterize sources in new geographic regions. Finally, in geographic areas where supervised model performance is low, SSL significantly increases the accuracy of source-type classification using unlabeled data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of GPU Data Access Patterns on Complex Geometries for the D3Q19 Lattice Boltzmann Algorithm

GPU performance of the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) depends heavily on memory access patterns. When implemented with GPUs on complex domains, typically, geometric data is accessed indirectly and lattice data is accessed lexicographically. Although there are a variety of other options, no study has examined the relative efficacy between them. Here, we examine a suite of memory access schemes via empirical testing and performance modeling. We find strong evidence that semi-direct is often better suited than the more common indirect addressing, providing increased computational speed and reducing memory consumption. For the layout, we find that the Collected Structure of Arrays (CSoA) and bundling layouts outperform the common Structure of Array layout; on V100 and P100 devices, CSoA consistently outperforms bundling, however the relationship is more complicated on K40 devices. When compared to state-of-the-art practices, our recommendations lead to speedups of 10–40 percent and reduce memory consumption up to 17 percent. Using performance modeling and computational experimentation, we determine the mechanisms behind the accelerations. We demonstrate that our results hold across multiple GPUs on two leadership class systems, and present the first near-optimal strong results for LBM with arterial geometries run on GPUs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

User-defined EMT inverter model reference performance, utility-scale [Slides]

This report investigates the response of the inverter under different terminal voltage and operating conditions. The goal is to understand the control objective of the inverter (e.g., injection of reactive current for voltage dips) based on the inverter’s response. No attempt is made to determine the exact control algorithms implemented in the inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparative post-irradiation examination of high burnup U-19Pu-10Zr: Assessing steady-state irradiation behavior against historical and modeled fuel performance

Here, the development of next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors necessitates comprehensive research on metallic fuels to maximize economic performance while ensuring safe operation. In this study, we investigated the steady-state irradiation behavior of two high burnup U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pins, DP-36 and DP-40, in preparation for planned safety testing. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) was performed to quantify fuel column elongation, regions of low-density at the top of the fuel column, pin deformation, fission product distribution, fractional fission gas release, microstructural evolution, and fuel constituent redistribution. Benchmarking against existing PIE data from U-19Pu-10Zr fuel pins irradiated in EBR-II revealed consistent patterns in fuel column elongation and cladding diametral strain. However, both pins exhibited longer low-density structures, and destructive examination of DP-36 revealed more complex constituent redistribution patterns compared to previously reported data for ternary fuel pins. The steady-state irradiation of both pins was also modeled using BISON. Comparisons of PIE results with modeled predictions showed overall agreement in fractional fission gas release but consistent overestimation of axial and radial swelling due to gaseous and solid swelling models. These findings underscore the critical importance of pre-test characterization on test and sibling pins to accurately capture steady-state fuel behavior ahead of transient testing, thus establishing a baseline for post-test comparison. Additionally, these analyses identified key data gaps that warrant further investigation to improve the understanding and prediction of fuel swelling, thereby enhancing the synergy between modeling and experimental efforts in supporting accident testing.

BISON↗

DOE OSTI2025

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗

DOE OSTI2021

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation As Run Predictions Using PARFUME

The PARticle FUel ModEl (PARFUME), a fuel performance modeling code used for high-temperature gas-cooled reactors, was used to model the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-5/6/7 irradiation test using as-run physics and thermal data. The AGR-5/6/7 irradiation test consists of the combined fifth, sixth, and seventh planned irradiations of the AGR Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The AGR-5/6/7 test train is a multi-capsule, instrumented experiment that is designed for irradiation in the 133.4-mm diameter northeast flux trap position of the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory. Each capsule contains compacts filled with uranium oxycarbide unaltered fuel particles. This report documents the calculations performed to predict the failure probability of tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated fuel particles during the AGR-5/6/7 experiment. In addition, this report documents the calculated fission product release fraction from the fuel. The calculations include modeling of the AGR 5/6/7 irradiation that occurred from February 2018 to July 2020 over nine ATR cycles, including six normal cycles and three power axial locator mechanism cycles, for a total of approximately 376 effective full power days (EFPD). The irradiation conditions and material properties of the AGR-5/6/7 test predicted zero fuel particle failures in Capsules 1, 3, and 4. Fuel particle failures were predicted in two of the compacts in Capsule 2 and one particle failure is predicted in each one of the compacts in Capsule 5. All compacts that exhibited fuel particle failures predicted by PARFUME were caused by localized stress concentrations in the silicon carbide (SiC) layer caused by cracking in the inner pyrolytic (IPyC) layer. In addition, shrinkage of the buffer and IPyC layer during irradiation resulted in formation of a buffer-IPyC gap. Compacts with a lower irradiation temperature and fluence experienced the smallest buffer-IPyC gap formation. Conversely, higher irradiated temperature compacts with a high fluence experienced the largest buffer-IPyC gap formation. Compact 3-6-3 experienced the largest buffer IPyC gap formation of just under 21.7 µm. The release fraction of fission products silver (Ag), cesium (Cs), and strontium (Sr) vary depending on capsule location and irradiation temperature. The maximum release fraction of Ag occurs in Capsule 3, reaching up to 59.5% for the TRISO fuel particles (compact 3-6-3). The release fraction of the other two fission products, Cs and Sr, are much smaller. A maximum Cs release fraction of 1.1% occurred in compact 3-4-3 and 4.4% for Sr in compact 3-6-3.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗