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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with bioterrorism preparedness in healthcare workers: a systematic review

Introduction Bioterrorism is an important issue in the field of biosecurity, and effectively dealing with bioterrorism has become an urgent task worldwide. Healthcare workers are considered bioterrorism first responders, who shoulder essential responsibilities and must be equipped to deal with bioterrorism. This study aims to extract and summarize the main research components of the bioterrorism knowledge, attitude, and practice dimensions among healthcare workers. Method This study utilized a systematic review research design based on the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. A literature search was conducted in the PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases for peer-reviewed literature, and the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) version 2018 was used to assess the quality of the literature. Result A total of 16 studies were included in the final selection. Through the analysis and summary of the included studies, three main aspects and 14 subaspects of the knowledge dimension, three main aspects and 10 subaspects of the attitude dimension, and two main aspects and six subaspects of the practice dimension were extracted. Conclusion This study conducted a literature review on bioterrorism knowledge, attitudes, and practices for healthcare workers based on the PRISMA 2020 guidelines. The findings can guide improvements in health literacy and provide beneficial information to professional organizations that need to respond effectively to bioterrorism.

Li, Tiantian↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Residential and Office Building Archetypes for Energy Efficiency Building Solutions in an Urban Scale: A China Case Study

Building energy consumption accounts for 36% of the overall energy end use worldwide and is growing rapidly as developing countries continue to urbanize. Understanding the energy use at urban scale will lay the foundation for identification of energy efficiency opportunities to be deployed at speed. China has almost half of global new constructions and plays an important role in building suitability. However, an open source national building energy consumption database is not available in China. To provide data support for building energy consumptions, this paper used a simulation method to develop an urban building energy consumption database for a pilot city in Wuhan, China. First, residential, small, and large office building archetype energy models were created in EnergyPlus to represent typical building energy consumption in Wuhan. The baseline reference model simulation results were further validated using survey data from the literature. Second, stochastic simulations were conducted to consider different design parameters and occupants’ energy usage intensity scenarios, such as thermal properties of the building envelope, lighting power density, equipment power density, HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) schedule, etc. A building energy consumption database was generated for typical building archetypes. Third, data-driven regression analysis was conducted to support quick building energy consumption prediction using key high- level building information inputs. Finally, a web-based urban energy platform and an interface were developed to support further third-party application development. The research is expected to provide fast energy efficiency building design solutions for urban planning, new constructions as well as building retrofits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Spinel High-Entropy Oxide (Cr0.2Mn0.2Co0.2Ni0.2Zn0.2)3O4 as Anode Material for Lithium-Ion Batteries

In this study, we synthesized spinel high-entropy oxide (HEO) (Cr0.2Mn0.2Co0.2Ni0.2Zn0.2)3O4 nanoparticles by a simple solution combustion method. These particles were investigated for their performance as anodes in lithium-ion batteries. The reversible capacity is 132 mAh·g−1 after 100 cycles at a current density of 100 mA·g−1, 107 mAh·g−1 after 1000 cycles at a current density of 1 A g−1, and 96 mAh·g−1 rate capacity at a high current density of 2 A g−1. The outstanding cycle stability under high current densities and remarkable rate performance can be attributed to the stable structure originating from the high entropy of the material.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synthesis and Lithium Storage Properties of Spinel (Al 0.2 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 Ni 0.2 Zn 0.2 ) 3 O 4 High-Entropy Oxide

High-entropy oxides (HEOs) have garnered significant interest as next-generation anode materials for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to their high theoretical specific capacity and excellent structural stability. This study successfully synthesized spinel-structured (Al 0.2 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 Ni 0.2 Zn 0.2 ) 3 O 4 HEO via a sol–gel method. The material was characterized by XRD, Raman and TEM, confirming a homogeneous single-phase spinel structure, with uniformly distributed elements-a hallmark of HEOs. Electrochemical tests demonstrated a stable cycling performance (438 mAh g −1 at 100 mA g −1 after 100 cycles and 350 mAh g −1 at 1 A g −1 after 1000 cycles) and rate capacity of 159 mAh g −1 at 2 A g −1 , The remarkable long-term cyclability and good rate capability highlight the potential of this HEO for practical applications in durable, high-power lithium-ion batteries. This work underscores the advantage of incorporating structurally stabilizing elements in HEOs for advanced energy storage.

anode materials↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanostructured C@CuS Core–Shell Framework with High Lithium-Ion Storage Performance

In this study, we have synthesized a nanostructured core–shell framework of carbon-coated copper sulfide (C@CuS) through a one-step precipitation technique. The carbon sphere template facilitated the nucleation of CuS nanostructures. The synthesized nanocomposites have demonstrated remarkable lithium-ion storage capabilities when utilized as an anode in lithium-ion batteries. Notably, they exhibit an impressive rate capability of 314 mAh g -1 at a high current density of 5000 mA g -1 , along with excellent long-term cycle stability, maintaining 463 mAh g -1 at 1000 mA g -1 after 800 cycles. This superior performance is due to the core–shell architecture of the composite, where the carbon core enhances the conductivity of CuS nanoparticles and mitigates volume expansion, thus preventing capacity loss. Our study not only elucidates the significance of carbon in the construction of nano-heterojunctions or composite electrodes but also presents a practical approach to significantly boost the electrochemical performance of CuS and other metal sulfides.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Novel Microshear Geometry for Exploring the Influence of Void Swelling on the Mechanical Properties Induced by MeV Heavy Ion Irradiation

Small disks are often the specimen of choice for exposure in nuclear reactor environments, and this geometry invariably limits the types of mechanical testing that can be performed on the specimen. Recently, shear punch testing has been utilized to evaluate changes arising from neutron irradiation in test reactor environments on these small disk specimens. As part of a broader effort to link accelerated testing using ion irradiation and conventional neutron irradiation techniques, a novel microshear specimen geometry was developed for use with heavy-ion irradiated specimens. The technique was demonstrated in pure Cu irradiated to 11 and 110 peak dpa with 10 MeV Cu ions. At 11 peak dpa, the Cu specimen had a high density of small voids in the irradiated region, while at 110 peak dpa, larger voids with an average void swelling of ~20% were observed. Micropillar and microshear specimens both exhibited hardening at 11 dpa, followed by softening at 110 dpa. The close alignment of the new microshear technique and more conventional micropillar testing, and the fact that both follow intuition, is a good first step towards applying microshear testing to a wider range of irradiated materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Texture Analysis of Inconel 718 with Different Modes During Single-Track Laser Surface Re-Melting

An in-depth understanding of the texture formation in melt pools allows for the modification of the surface layer microstructure and corresponding material properties, providing an opportunity to integrate laser surface re-melting into metal additive manufacturing. This study investigates crystallographic texture formation at different cooling rates in single melting tracks on the Inconel 718 (IN718) plate produced by laser surface re-melting. The cooling rate varies from 2.31 × 10 5 °C/s to 9.56 × 10 5 °C/s with the increase in scanning rates from 400 mm/s to 1200 mm/s, measured by recently developed real-time temperature monitoring of melt pools. Columnar grains are dominant, with distinct crystallographic textures forming in the melt pools. At a slower scanning speed, the keyhole mode shows three different textures forming at different depths (crystallographically layered structure), while, at a faster scanning speed, the conduction mode shows only random grain orientation. There are no pores/voids detected, and the columnar grain morphology and columnar grain width (8.6 μm to 12.4 μm) follow the analysis framework in terms of thermal gradient and solidification rate analysis. This implies that laser surface re-melting provides the potential to modify the surface structure from a random grain orientation to a crystallographically layered structure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recyclable Graphene Sheets as a Growth Template for Crystalline ZnO Nanowires

Recent advances in nanoscience have opened ways of recycling substrates for nanomaterial growth. Novel materials, such as atomically thin materials, are highly desirable for the recycling substrates. In this work, we report recycling of monolayer graphene as a growth template for synthesis of single crystalline ZnO nanowires. Selective nucleation of ZnO nanowires on graphene was elucidated by scanning electron microscopy and density functional theory calculation. Growth and subsequent separation of ZnO nanowires was repeated up to seven times on the same monolayer graphene film. Raman analyses were also performed to investigate the quality of graphene structure along the recycling processes. The chemical robustness of graphene enables the repetitive ZnO nanowire growth without noticeable degradation of the graphene quality. This work presents a route for graphene as a multifunctional growth template for diverse nanomaterials such as nanocrystals, aligned nanowires, other two-dimensional materials, and semiconductor thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multimodality in the Search for New Physics in Pulsar Timing Data and the Case of Kination-amplified Gravitational-wave Background from Inflation

We investigate the kination-amplified inflationary gravitational-wave background (GWB) interpretation of the signal recently reported by various pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Kination is a post-inflationary phase in the expansion history dominated by the kinetic energy of some scalar field, characterized by a stiff equation of state w = 1. Within the inflationary GWB model, we identify two modes that can fit the current data sets (NANOGrav and EPTA) with equal likelihood: the kination-amplification (KA) mode and the ordinary, no-kination-amplification (no-KA) mode. The multimodality of the likelihood motivates a Bayesian analysis with nested sampling. We analyze the free spectra of current PTA data and mock free spectra constructed with higher signal-to-noise ratios using nested sampling. The analysis of the mock spectrum designed to be consistent with the best fit to the NANOGrav 15 yr (NG15) data successfully reveals the expected bimodal posterior for the first time while excluding the reheating mode that appears in the fit to the current NG15 data, making a case for our correct and comprehensive treatment of potential multimodal posteriors arising from future PTA data sets. The resultant Bayes factor is $\mathcal{B}$ $\equiv$ Z no–KA /Z KA = 2.9 ± 1.9, indicating comparable statistical significance between the two modes. Given the theoretical model-building challenges of producing highly blue-tilted primordial tensor spectra, the KA mode has the advantage of requiring less blue primordial spectra, compared with the no-KA mode. The synergy between future cosmic microwave background polarization, pulsar timing, and laser interferometer measurements of gravitational waves will help resolve the ambiguity implied by the multimodal posterior in PTA-only searches.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Vertical Structure of Local Disk Galaxies Revealed by DESI Imaging Data

The vertical structure of galactic disks is an important probe of the disk assembly history. Here we investigate the vertical structure of a sample of 79 local disk galaxies within 50 Mpc using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Imaging Surveys. Vertical luminosity profiles as a function of radius in the g, r, and z bands are extracted and fitted using a single-component sech2 model to determine scale height and its radial variation (i.e., flaring). Our measurements indicate local galactic disks are overall thin with negligible flaring. The median scale heights at 1 R e are 0.21, 0.22, and 0.22 kpc in the g, r, and z bands, respectively, while the median radial gradients of scale height are −0.006, 0.003, and 0.001 in these bands. These values are consistent with that of the geometric thin disk of the Milky Way represented by metal-rich, low-[α/Fe] populations, confirming the weak flaring of the geometric thin disk. A clear positive correlation of scale height with stellar mass is observed down to the low-mass end of 10 7 M ⊙ . These results provide a homogeneous benchmark for the vertical structure of nearby disk galaxies and establish the cosmological representativeness of the Milky Way thin disk.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The LSST DESC DC2 Simulated Sky Survey

Here, we describe the simulated sky survey underlying the second data challenge (DC2) carried out in preparation for analysis of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (LSST DESC). Significant connections across multiple science domains will be a hallmark of LSST; the DC2 program represents a unique modeling effort that stresses this interconnectivity in a way that has not been attempted before. This effort encompasses a full end-to-end approach: starting from a large N-body simulation, through setting up LSST-like observations including realistic cadences, through image simulations, and finally processing with Rubin's LSST Science Pipelines. This last step ensures that we generate data products resembling those to be delivered by the Rubin Observatory as closely as is currently possible. The simulated DC2 sky survey covers six optical bands in a wide-fast-deep area of approximately 300 deg 2 , as well as a deep drilling field of approximately 1 deg 2 . We simulate 5 yr of the planned 10 yr survey. The DC2 sky survey has multiple purposes. First, the LSST DESC working groups can use the data set to develop a range of DESC analysis pipelines to prepare for the advent of actual data. Second, it serves as a realistic test bed for the image processing software under development for LSST by the Rubin Observatory. In particular, simulated data provide a controlled way to investigate certain image-level systematic effects. Finally, the DC2 sky survey enables the exploration of new scientific ideas in both static and time domain cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

AT2025ulz and S250818k: Zooming in with the Hubble Space Telescope

AT2025ulz is an optical/near-infrared transient discovered during follow-up of the candidate gravitational wave (GW) event S250818k. Its young age (≲1 day), rapid decline, and strong color evolution over the first 48 hr classify it as a potential kilonova candidate. In this work, we present the results of our observing campaign, carried out with the Gran Telescopio Canarias and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Although the early time evolution of AT2025ulz resembles some aspects of a kilonova, its rapid onset (∼3 hr after the GW trigger) and luminosity (a factor of ∼5 brighter than AT2017gfo in g band) are difficult to reproduce. Only a small subset of our kilonova models matches its multicolor light curve, and the inferred ejecta mass is uncomfortably large given the low chirp mass (≲0.87 M ⊙ ) of the GW candidate. HST observations place the transient within a nearby (z = 0.08489) spiral galaxy with ongoing star formation and measure a color (F336W − F160W ≈ 1.4 mag) that is too blue to match with a kilonova. Our data support the classification of AT2025ulz as a supernova, initially undergoing a shock-cooling phase and later entering its photospheric phase and spectroscopically identified via its broad absorption features.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aristolochic acid-induced genotoxicity and toxicogenomic changes in rodents

Aristolochic acid (AA) is a group of structurally related nitrophenanthrene carboxylic acids found in many plants that are widely used by many cultures as traditional herbal medicines. AA is a causative agent for Chinese herbs nephropathy, a term replaced later by AA nephropathy. Evidence indicates that AA is nephrotoxic, genotoxic, and carcinogenic in humans; and it also induces tumors in the forestomach, kidney, renal pelvis, urinary bladder, and lung of rats and mice. Therefore, plants containing AA have been classified as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1) by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In our laboratories, we have conducted a series of genotoxicity and toxicogenomic studies in the rats exposed to AA of 0.1–10 mg/kg for 12 weeks. Our results demonstrated that AA treatments induced DNA adducts and mutations in the kidney, liver, and spleen of rats, as well as significant alteration of gene expression in both its target and nontarget tissues. AA treatments altered mutagenesis- or carcinogenesis-related microRNA expression in rat kidney and resulted in significant changes in protein expression profiling. We also applied benchmark dose (BMD) modeling to the 3-month AA-induced genotoxicity data. The obtained BMDL10 (the lower 95% confidence interval of the BMD 10 that is a 10% increase over the background level) for AA-induced mutations in the kidney of rats was about 7 μg/kg body weight per day. This review constitutes an overview of our investigations on AA-induced genotoxicity and toxicogenomic changes including gene expression, microRNA expression, and proteomics; and presents updated information focused on AA-induced genotoxicity in rodents.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Telomere-to-telomere assemblies of chromosome 10 reveal complex adaptive variation of 3-ketoacyl-CoA-synthases in Populus trichocarpa likely driven by Helitrons

The model woody plant Populus trichocarpa displays an atypical alkene-diverse wax cuticle likely driven by copy number variation (CNV) of 3-ketoacyl-CoA synthases ( KCS ), which has been difficult to confirm with short-read assemblies. Long-read sequencing enables the development of telomere-to-telomere resources to detect cryptic variation, including CNVs, which are currently missed. Integrating this information can improve genomic prediction for breeding and provide insights into the evolutionary basis of important traits. Our analysis of 78 long-read haplotypes from chromosome 10 identified more than twice as many KCS genes as previously reported, and numerous intragenic non-synonymous substitutions. Random Forest predictive models highlighted the importance of Potri.010G079500 in producing very long chain alkenes; however, its absence did not predict previously reported alkene-deficient phenotypes. Instead, alkene levels are best predicted by the combinations of KCS copies. Additionally, amino acid substitutions clustered around ligand and donor binding pockets, suggesting they contribute to differing wax cuticle composition. Finally, each KCS gene and copy was linked to a Helitron transposon. A phylogenetic analysis suggests Helitrons are the evolutionary mechanism for generating KCS tandem arrays. Long-read generated telomere-to-telomere assemblies of P. trichocarpa chromosome 10 revealed large-effect loci critical to genetic studies that are unattainable from short-reads. This new resource produced novel insights into genome structure and function, and a novel mechanism for generating tandem gene duplication. Our results highlight that, given current challenges in annotation and assembly, detailed and focused long-read sequences are key to interpreting complex genomic regions that contain tandem copy number variants.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass 2021 Computational Frontier CompF03 Topical Group Report: Machine Learning

The rapidly-developing intersection of machine learning (ML) with high-energy physics (HEP) presents both opportunities and challenges to our community. Far beyond applications of standard ML tools to HEP problems, genuinely new and potentially revolutionary approaches are being developed by a generation of talent literate in both fields. There is an urgent need to support the needs of the interdisciplinary community driving these developments, including funding dedicated research at the intersection of the two fields, investing in high-performance computing at universities and tailoring allocation policies to support this work, developing of community tools and standards, and providing education and career paths for young researchers attracted by the intellectual vitality of machine learning for high energy physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on air quality in southern California: implications for future control policies

Abstract. In response to the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), California issued statewide stay-at-home orders, bringing about abrupt and dramatic reductions in air pollutant emissions. This crisis offers us an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of emission reductions in terms of air quality. Here we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) in combination with surface observations to study the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures on air quality in southern California. Based on activity level statistics and satellite observations, we estimate the sectoral emission changes during the lockdown. Due to the reduced emissions, the population-weighted concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) decrease by 15 % in southern California. The emission reductions contribute 68 % of the PM2.5 concentration decrease before and after the lockdown, while meteorology variations contribute the remaining 32 %. Among all chemical compositions, the PM2.5 concentration decrease due to emission reductions is dominated by nitrate and primary components. For O3 concentrations, the emission reductions cause a decrease in rural areas but an increase in urban areas; the increase can be offset by a 70 % emission reduction in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs). These findings suggest that a strengthened control on primary PM2.5 emissions and a well-balanced control on nitrogen oxides and VOC emissions are needed to effectively and sustainably alleviate PM2.5 and O3 pollution in southern California.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Substantially positive contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei under low supersaturation in China based on numerical model improvements

New particle formation (NPF) and subsequent particle growth are important sources of condensation nuclei (CN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). While many observations have shown positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation, negative NPF contributions were often simulated in polluted environments. Using the observations in a coastal city of Qingdao, Beijing, and Gucheng in north China, we thoroughly evaluate the simulated number concentrations of CN and CCN using an NPF-explicit parameterization embedded in the WRF-Chem model. For CN, the initial simulation shows large biases of particle number concentrations at 10–40 and 40–100 nm. By adjusting the process of gas–particle partitioning, including the mass accommodation coefficient (MAC) of sulfuric acid, the phase changes in primary organic aerosol emissions, and the condensational amount of nitric acid, the improvement of the particle growth process yields substantially reduced overestimation of CN. Regarding CCN, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formed from the oxidation of semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (S/IVOCs) is called SI-SOA, the yield of which is an important contributor. At default settings, the SI-SOA yield is too high without considering the differences in precursor oxidation rates. Lowering the SI-SOA yield under linear H 2 SO 4 nucleation scheme results in much-improved CCN simulations compared to observations. On the basis of the bias-corrected model, we find substantially positive contributions of NPF to CCN at low supersaturation (~ 0.2 %) over broad areas of China, primarily due to competing effects of increasing particle hygroscopicity, a result of reductions in SI-SOA amount, surpassing that of particle size decreases. The bias-corrected model is robustly applicable to other schemes, such as the quadratic H 2 SO 4 nucleation scheme, in terms of CN and CCN, though the dependence of CCN on SI-SOA yield is diminished likely due to changes in particle composition. This study highlights potentially much larger NPF contributions to CCN on a regional and even global basis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗