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At least 613 records · Page 34

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Thermo-Mechanical Shock, X-Ray Transport and Radiation Response Analysis Experiments on NIF

The study of x-ray induced rapid heating and the resulting material responses - (thermomechanical shock (TMS) and thermo-structural response (TSR)) - is important to our understanding of material behavior in extreme environments. A series of high conversion efficiency (XRCE) x-ray sources have been developed for the NIF laser facility ranging in fluence and spectral content. In conjunction with source development, we have developed a new XTRRA (X-ray Transport and Radiation Response Analysis) test cassette to hold a set of samples, each at equal distance from target chamber center (TCC) where the x-ray source is placed. Design and performance details of the x-ray sources is discussed elsewhere. Here, we describe the development and use of this TMS XTRRA test cassette. The XTRRA test cassette is a snout mounted on a NIF Diagnostic Instrument Manipulator (DIM) designed to position six samples equidistant from the x-ray source to assure uniform irradiation of all samples. Photon Displacement interferometry (PDI) is used to measure the displacement of the rear surface of each sample resulting from x-ray exposure on the front of the sample. This will help determine the x-ray generated impulse on the sample. The samples are retrieved from the snout after the shot for inspection and post-shot analysis including the measurement of sample ablated mass and engineering tests examining changes in the material structure. The data from experiments are compared to predictions from LLNL’s ASC codes and used to inform models implemented in these codes. Thus, XRCE x-ray sources with the XTRRA snout at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) laser at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory provide the ability to expose a broad range of material samples directly to high x-ray fluence, measure shock transits, and recover the sample for further analysis post-shot.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The future of the NPT: REVCON and beyond

The Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), with its quinquennial review conferences (RevCons), has become the foundation of the international nonproliferation regime over the course of its 50-year history. With more states parties than any other arms control agreement (currently 191), the Treaty provides a legally binding framework for all states parties, constraining proliferation of nuclear weapons and committing the five recognized states who possess nuclear weapons to work toward disarmament. The NPT has enjoyed wide success in constraining the spread of nuclear weapons. Only one state party has left the agreement and gone on to acquire these weapons, and the overall track record of compliance with IAEA safeguards has been robust. However, for all its effectiveness in the area of nonproliferation, its achievements on the disarmament front have been relatively unimpressive. While the NWS – most notably the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia – have decreased the overall size of their nuclear arsenals significantly since 1970, these arsenals have remained an important feature of NWS security policies. The limited progress towards disarmament has created friction between the NNWS and NWS and has been the source of mounting tension within the NPT regime. The 2020 RevCon, the 50th anniversary of the NPT and 25th anniversary of its indefinite extension, faces a range of contentious challenges, old and new, which call into question the Treaty’s future viability.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Housedon-Hill - A ChemCam/RMI mega mosaic to investigate distant features

The ChemCam Remote Microscopic Imager (RMI) onboard Curiosity was originally designed to document the tiny areas analyzed by ChemCam’s laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique on rocks at few meters distance around the rover. The RMI produces 1024 x 1024 pixel black and white images directly from ChemCam’s telescope focal plane. Early in the mission, it was recognized that, thanks to its powerful optics, RMI could also play a role as a long-distance reconnaissance tool, complementing other cameras on the remote sensing mast, and taking advantage of its very long 700 mm focal length. Imaging areas several kilometers from the rover provides pictures that are very complementary to orbital observations and gives a more human-like, ground-based perspective. Between sols 2878 and 2921, Curiosity stayed parked at the same place to perform various rock sampling analyses. This opportunity was used to target very distant areas of interest, daily building an RMI mosaic of 216 overlapping images covering an area ranging from the bottom layers of Mount Sharp to the edge of Vera Rubin Ridge. This product is so far the largest RMI mosaic acquired during the entire mission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s Tracking the Sun report summarizes installed prices and other trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States. This report is now being published on a biannual cycle. In 2020, Berkeley Lab has released a more limited Distributed Solar 2020 Data Update, which consists of the same data otherwise published in Tracking the Sun report. The update includes data on more than 1.9 million systems installed through 2019, covering 82% of all distributed PV systems installed nationally through that timeframe.As in prior years, the data update focuses to a large degree on installed prices reported for distributed PV projects, describing both historical trends and variability in pricing across projects.With respect to the historical price trajectory, national median installed prices fell, from 2018 to 2019, by roughly 1% for residential systems, remained essentially flat for small non-residential systems, and fell by 4% for large non-residential systems. Across all three customer segments, these are the slowest annual percentage declines since 2006-2008.Pricing continues to vary widely across individual projects, reflecting, among other things, differences in system sizing and design, installer-level pricing strategies, and local market conditions. For example, among residential systems installed in 2019, the lowest 20% were priced below $3.1/W, while the highest 20% were above $4.5/W. The distributions for non-residential systems exhibit similarly wide spreads.In addition to data on installed prices, the data update also covers a broad range of trends related to distributed PV system design, including: system sizing, module efficiency, module-level power electronics, inverter-loading ratios, solar+storage installations, mounting configuration, panel orientation, third-party ownership, and customer segmentation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

First ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1) Aerosol Observing System (AOS01) Instrument Handbook

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Mobile Aerosol Observing System – Aerosols (MAOS-A), designated AOS01, entered service in March of 2012 at the Los Alamos National Laboratory for the Pajarito Aerosol Coupling to Ecosystems (PACE) field campaign. The Aerosol Observing System is meant to be a standalone, completely autonomous, aerosol sampling system. It requires only power, 208VAC 1φ or 440 VAC 1φ, and an internet connection to be operational. The physical structure is a standard-sized shipping container, 20 feet long by 8 feet wide. Inside, the walls, ceiling, and floor are insulated using >3.5” of spray polyurethane foam with an R-value of 6.2/inch of insulation. The interior walls, floor and ceiling are lined with ¾” plywood for durability and have integrated unistrut for mounting equipment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2) Aerosol Observing System (AOS) Instrument Handbook

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s second mobile facility (AMF2) Aerosol Observing System, designated AOS02, entered service in October of 2010 at Steamboat Springs, Colorado for the Storm Peak Laboratory Cloud Property Validation Experiment (StormVEx). The Aerosol Observing S ystem is meant to be a standalone, autonomous, aerosol sampling system. It requires only power, 208 or 440 VAC 1φ, and an internet connection to be operational. The physical structure is a standard-sized shipping container, 20 feet long by 8 feet wide. Inside, the walls, ceiling, and floors are insulated using >3.5” of spray polyurethane foam with an R-value of 6.2/inch of insulation. The interior walls, floor, and ceiling are lined with ¾” plywood for durability and have integrated unistrut for mounting equipment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Third ARM Mobile Facility (AMF3) Aerosol Observing System (AOS) Instrument Handbook

The U.S. Department of Energy ARM user facility’s AMF3 AOS, designated AOS03, entered service in August of 2016 at the ARM Mobile Facility at Oliktok Point, Alaska. The Aerosol Observing System is meant to be a standalone, completely autonomous, aerosol sampling system. It requires only power, 208VAC, and an internet connection to be operational. The physical structure is a standard-sized shipping container, 20 feet long by 8 feet wide. Inside, the walls, ceiling, and floors are insulated using >3.5” of spray polyurethane foam with an R-value of 6.2/inch of insulation. The interior walls, floor, and ceiling are lined with ¾” plywood for durability and have integrated unistrut for mounting equipment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) Aerosol Observing System (AOS) Instrument Handbook

The U.S. Department of Energy ARM user facility’s ENA AOS, designated AOS06, entered service in October of 2013 at the ARM Facility on Graciosa Island, Azores. The Aerosol Observing System is meant to be a standalone, completely autonomous, aerosol sampling system. It requires only power, 208VAC 1φ or 440 VAC 1φ, and an internet connection to be operational. The physical structure is a standard-sized shipping container, 20 feet long by 8 feet wide. Inside, the walls, ceiling, and floors are insulated using >3.5” of spray polyurethane foam with an R-value of 6.2/inch of insulation. The interior walls, floor, and ceiling are lined with ¾” plywood for durability and have integrated unistrut for mounting equipment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Small to Full Height Scale Comparisons of Cesium Ion Exchange Performance with Crystalline Silicotitanate

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Hanford Site houses 56 million gallons of high-level radioactive waste generated from plutonium production from 1944 to 1988. The supernatant waste, currently stored in underground tanks, is intended to be vitrified following filtration and 137 Cs removal at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Vitrification Facility. The WTP Pretreatment Facility will not be operational for several years. The Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system is a technology demonstration that will remove cesium from tank waste supernate to support directly feeding LAW to the vitrification facility. The 137 Cs removal is important to meet the WTP LAW contract specification and ultimately for creating a contact-handled waste form. The waste acceptance criteria (WAC) limit for the WTP LAW Facility is <3.18E-5 Ci 137 Cs per mole Na. The TSCR system is skid mounted and employs two key technologies: dead end filtration for solids removal and ion exchange (IX) for cesium removal. Filtration is necessary to protect the functionality of the IX columns. The IX process utilizes sodium form crystalline silicotitanate (CST) IX media produced by UOP Honeywell, LLC (Des Plaines, IL) under the product name IONSIV R9140-B, 18 x 50 mesh, in a lead-lag-polish column configuration. Each column contains a CST bed height of 92 inches and a volume of approximately 157 gallons of CST IX media. The full-scale TSCR operation will run at a residence time of 1.9 bed volumes (BV)/h, which results in a superficial velocity of 7.3 cm/min and a flowrate of ~5 gal/min. Column testing at small (2.5% of the full bed height), medium (12% of the full bed height), and full-height scales has been previously conducted to evaluate process variables and scale up performance of Cs exchange onto the CST. Cesium load performances from various sieve cuts at the small scale indicated that a 30-mesh sieve cut be tested to determine if it better reflects the 12% and full-height column performances at the small scale. Two process flowrates were tested in the small-column configuration with <30-mesh CST and simulant solutions. These tests were compared to full-height column tests at the same residence times to assess CST particle size effect on column scaling. Table S.1 summarizes the observed column performance determined for the two flowrates juxtaposed to the previous work with 5.6 M Na simulant at higher scales (used as benchmarks). The WAC breakthroughs between the small and full-height tests at 1.3 BV/h differed by ~59 BVs. The WAC breakthroughs for small, medium, and full-height tests at 1.8 BV/h were consistent at 240 BVs. The 50% Cs breakthroughs were nominally equivalent for all column tests. The common transition zones and onsets of Cs breakthrough at the 1.8 BV/h tests indicated that the Cs mass transfers were equivalent and thus the <30-mesh CST Cs load performance at the small scale successfully modeled that of the full-height system. It is recommended that the <30-mesh CST be used in subsequent 10-mL CST bed tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Heterogeneous System for Eagle Detection, Deterrent, and Wildlife Collision Detection for Wind Turbines (Final Technical Report)

This report summarizes the design, implementation, and test of an integrated system for automated detection and deterrence of eagles, with included wind turbine blade strike detection and imaging functionality. A machine learning approach was used in conjunction with a 360° camera system for automated detection and classification of golden eagles. This was developed using footage obtained from trained golden eagles and other raptors, in collaboration with wildlife biologists and professional bird handlers. Oregon State University developed a visual deterrent system, which uses inflatable anthropomorphic sculptures with random, kinetic motion to deter eagles, and conducted limited field testing on live eagles; the deterrent can be triggered by the visual detection of eagles using the vision system. Finally, a multi-sensor module was developed that is mounted at the turbine blade root. This module measures vibration and other motions to detect blade strikes, and an integrated on-blade camera captures an image of any impacting objects. Long-term, this blade strike detection system is intended to support an automatic monitoring and certification system for the eagle detection and deterent system. Independent field testing of each system component is described. Testing of the integrated system on an operational wind turbine was conducted across three separate field tests. This includes multi-day fields tests on a General Electric 1.5MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) in Boulder, CO in October 2018 and July 2019; installation procedures, test procedures, and a summary of collected data are presented. A third multi-day on-turbine field test is also presented, which was performed using a General Electric 1.5MW wind turbine at the North American Wind Research and Training Center (NAWRTC) at Mesalands Community College, Tucumcari, NM in April 2019. Across these field tests, the vision system was demonstrated using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), and the eagle classification algorithm was not tested; the visual deterrent system was demonstrated, including automatic, remote deployment following surrogate visual detections; and, multi-sensor on-blade data was recorded across multiple wind turbine operational conditions and through more than 100 surrogate blade strikes using soft projectiles, including the successful demonstration of automatic image capture of striking objects. This data set was also used for offline development and validation of enhanced collision detection algorithms. As summarized in this report, the development and field validation of an integrated detection, deterrent, and blade collision detection system represents a critical proof of concept for future technology development of related detection and deterrent technologies, where both deterrent as well as collision detection recording devices are needed for future siting, monitoring, and operation of wind turbine installations, both onshore and offshore.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Accelerometer Modeling in the State-Space

Generically, accelerometers are sensors that measure the accelerating force applied to an object. Their operation is based on a simple mechanical system and D’Alembert’s force principle along with Newton’s laws of motion. This device is typically mounted to the body of the test object under investigation that is subjected to an accelerating force. The displacement of the seismic or “proof” mass due to the acceleration is sensed by an embedded component from which the acceleration is determined. Interestingly enough, the resulting the resulting mathematical relations governing the dynamical motion is based on the underlying physics, sensor materials, geometry and fabrication. Mathematically, the various designs satisfy the underlying Newtonian equations of motion, but their type and performance differ significantly.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Low Cost SIPM Evaluation and Control Prototyping System including accurate bias voltage generation, leakage current measurement, and temperature control using Peltier cooling

We describe an electronics system to operate SIPMs in the laboratory. The system is comprised of a single channel amplifier board (SIPM Amp) and a 4-channel control board to which up to 4 SIPM Amp boards can be connected. The control board supplies a common low voltage power for the amplifiers. All channels feature individually regulated bias and Peltier power voltages, along withPt10K RTD readout. A graphical user interface allows control of the bias voltages, amplifier voltage, Peltier voltages, and also provides for readback of leakage currents and other voltages. The GUI app has a feedback loop to measure the SIPM temperature (with the PT10K) and generate correction voltages to the Peltier to regulate the temperature. The temperatures, which can be achieved by Peltier cooling depend on the thermal design of the setup, the practical limit being about 50C below ambient. The SIPM Amp. board is a small (3x5cm) PCB that has a single SIPM readout channel. The SIPM scan be surface mounted on the pcb or connected to a 2-pin 0.100" socket. The area around the SIPM footprint is thermally isolated by perforations in the PCB. The RTD is located inside the thermal break. Onboard is BV and LV filtering. The 10X amplifier is based on MiniCircuits' GALI-S66+ integrated circuit, tweaked for a 6V power. The amplifier was selected for a combination of high bandwidth, low noise, and low power. An accoupled amplifier output is connected to an SMA connector. For best operation of this inverting amplifier the output signal should be in the range of 0 to -1V.The Amplifier board is connected to the Control board with a 10-conductor 0.025" pitch ribbon cable, carrying all the services. Peltier power for currents more than 1A should use a separate 2-contact connector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

High Toughness Cermets for Molten Salt Pumps

Concentrated Solar Power plants using nitrate salts used cantilevered pump designs to avoid use of bearings in the 565°C salt; however, this necessitated the use of a sump that added additional cost, complexity, and thermal losses. Sump systems had their own complications, including risk of flooding the sump due to control issues either with level indicators or failures in the control valve responsible for filling the sump. Long-shafted pumps were developed and tested, and they outline the need to develop journal sleeves and bearings for new salt systems. Based on reports, pumps will need to be a vertical single- or multi-stage type, mounted to the roof of the molten salt tanks. Design and service for molten salt pumps above 550°C is relatively limited, and at temperatures up to 750°C there is no available design or service experience. Long-shaft pumps that extend to the bottom of the thermal energy storage tank will require bearing materials that are suitable to the given salt chemistry. Lubricity of proposed salts is unclear and need to be determined, especially for cold-tank pumps that require multi-stages for lifting the salt to the top of the tower. Materials, design, and maintenance are all major unknowns.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Flexure Upgrade System Engineering Project

At the National Ignition Facility (NIF), a system of lasers is used to implode and blow-up targets and create temperatures and pressures unlike any other place on earth. There are many target types that are used on experiments, but they can be broadly put in two categories – room temperature targets and cold targets. All targets can be mounted on any of the three target positioners on NIF, and two of these three target positioners can cryogenically cool the targets in the low Kelvin range for the cold targets. To minimize the ice buildup and infrared light exposure to these cold targets, a shroud surrounds the targets and seals the target from the outer environment. By shrouding the target, air, water, and other molecules have a difficult time reaching the target and some particles get cryo trapped into the shrouds themselves.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High Temperature Steam Oxidation of Irradiated FeCrAl in the Severe Accident Test Station

FeCrAl-UO2 test capsules were fabricated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and irradiated at the Advanced Test Reactor. Following irradiation, samples were sectioned from the irradiated rod and oxidation kinetics were evaluated to access the candidate cladding high-temperature oxidation performance following irradiation. The irradiation was performed at approximately 400°C to a burnup of 10 GWd/MT. The high-temperature oxidation tests were conducted in the ORNL Severe Accident Test Station at 1200 and 1300°C. Weight measurements were taken before and after oxidation testing. Cross-sections of the cladding were metallographically mounted and optical microscopy was performed. Measurements of the oxidation layer before and after high-temperature testing were collected. The results indicate the irradiated FeCrAl C35M alloy provided good thermal stability up to 1200°C.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Performance Evaluation of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring and Piezoelectric Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of Rotorcraft Components

The costs associated with the increasing maintenance and surveillance needs of aging structures are rising at an unexpected rate. Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today’s extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. Aircraft maintenance and repairs represent about a quarter of a commercial fleet’s operating costs. The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems using distributed sensor networks can reduce these costs by facilitating rapid and global assessments of structural integrity. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring can overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. The ease of monitoring an entire on-board network of distributed sensors means that structural health assessments can occur more often, allowing operators to be even more vigilant with respect to flaw onset. SHM systems also allow for condition-based maintenance practices to be substituted for the current time-based or cycle-based maintenance approach thus optimizing maintenance labor. The Federal Aviation Administration has conducted a series of SHM validation and certification programs intended to comprehensively support the evolution and adoption of SHM practices into routine aircraft maintenance practices. This report presents one of those programs involving a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Sikorsky, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp., Acellent Technologies Inc., and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a trial validation and certification program to evaluate Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) and Piezoelectric Transducers (PZT) as a structural health monitoring solution to specific rotorcraft applications. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM and PZT systems into rotorcraft maintenance programs and the document revisions necessary to allow for their routine use as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspections. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of a CVM system applied to Sikorsky S-92 fuselage frame application and a PZT system applied to an S-92 main gearbox mount beam application. The applications included both local and global damage detection assessments. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for SHM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. The validation work completed in this program demonstrated the ability of both CVM and PZT SHM systems to detect cracks in rotorcraft components. It proved the ability to use final system response parameters to provide a Green Light/Red Light (“GO” – “NO GO”) decision on the presence of damage. In additional to quantifying the performance of each SHM system for the trial applications on the S-92 platform, this study also identified specific methods that can be used to optimize damage detection, guidance on deployment scenarios that can affect performance and considerations that must be made to properly apply CVM and PZT sensors. These results support the main goal of safely integrating SHM sensors into rotorcraft maintenance programs. Additional benefits from deploying rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) may be realized when structural assessment data, collected by an SHM system, is also used to detect structural damage to compliment the operational environment monitoring. The use of in-situ sensors for health monitoring of rotorcraft structures can be a viable option for both flaw detection and maintenance planning activities. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM and PZT technology. It will also streamline future regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Europe's Evolving Deterrence Discourse

Over the last decade, a deteriorating security environment has brought into sharp focus the atrophy of strategic thought that occurred after the Cold War. At a time of intensifying major power rivalry, renewed urgency about the effectiveness of deterrence and the reliability of strategic stability, and mounting threats by nuclear armed and -arming “rogue states,” the need for new intellectual capital has become more pressing. But the U.S. analytical community shed a great deal of capability and capacity in the 1990s and after the 9/11 attacks was long focused on other problems. In recent years, the United States has slowly begun to rebuild institutional capacity and to reinvest in the development of the necessary human capital and analytical tools. One symptom of past atrophy was the near-complete collapse of transatlantic dialogue on these matters. One indicator of the nascent renewal is the reemergence of transatlantic collaboration, especially among early career professionals. In recent years it has also become clear that European institutions too are beginning to rebuild capacity and reinvest in human capital. This small volume is the result of a collective effort by four institutions to take stock of the state of strategic thought in Europe as it relates to deterrence and to advance transatlantic dialogue on deterrence. As a co-organizer of this process, CGSR is pleased to produce this edited collection of papers on behalf of the group. I am especially grateful to Amelia Morgan and Anna Péczeli for their role as coeditors. Please note that the views expressed here are the personal views of the authors and should not be attributed to the Laboratory, its sponsors, or any of the institutions with which the authors are or have been affiliated. Please also note that the Laboratory assumes no responsibility for the validity of the information used by the authors, who have drawn on information in common usage in Europe to inform their thinking.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗