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At least 613 records · Page 34

A Broad Grid of 2D Kilonova Emission Models

Depending upon the properties of their compact remnants and the physics included in the models, simulations of neutron star mergers can produce a broad range of ejecta properties. The characteristics of this ejecta, in turn, define the kilonova emission. To explore the effect of ejecta properties, we present a grid of 2-component 2D axisymmetric kilonova simulations that vary mass, velocity, morphology, and composition. The masses and velocities of each component vary, respectively, from 0.001 to 0.1 M ⊙ and 0.05 to 0.3c, covering much of the range of results from the neutron star merger literature. The set of 900 models is constrained to have a toroidal low electron fraction (Y e ) ejecta with a robust r-process composition and either a spherical or lobed high-Y e ejecta with two possible compositions. We simulate these models with the Monte Carlo radiative transfer code SuperNu using a full suite of lanthanide and 4th row element opacities. We examine the trends of these models with parameter variation, show how it can be used with statistical tools, and compare the model light curves and spectra to those of AT2017gfo, the electromagnetic counterpart of GW170817.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Thermal radiation model for solid rocket booster plumes

The Monte Carlo method is used to model the thermal radiation field of the plumes for the dual solid rocket boosters astride the Space Shuttle launch configuration. The model accounts for axial and radial variations in radiative properties of the plumes. The plumes are considered to be composed of a dispersion of aluminum oxide (Al2O3) particles immersed in the gaseous products of combustion. The principal emitting gases are taken to be CO, CO2, H2O, and HCl. The thermal model is based on local thermodynamic equilibrium. Scattering of radiant energy by Al2O3 particles may be treated as isotropic or anisotropic. Sample radiant heating rates to the base region of the Space Shuttle are shown. Space Shuttle geometries are simulated as combinations of quadric surfaces.

Watson, G. H.↗

Direct simulation Monte Carlo with ionization and radiation

Improvements in the modeling of radiation in low density shock waves with Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) are the subject of this study. The physical processes which determine the amount of radiation in a shock wave were investigated and the way in which they were modeled with DSMC was evaluated. Three physical processes were identified for which an improvement in the modeling technique could result in improved radiation predictions. New physical modeling schemes are introduced in this report for the three processes. First a method for determining the electric field and its effect on the flow is introduced. Second, a two step reaction process for electron impact ionization reactions is evaluated. Finally, a new scheme to determine the relaxation collision numbers for excitation of electronic states is proposed. Each new scheme attempts to move the DSMC method toward more accurate physics or more reliance on experimental data. The new schemes are all compared to the current modeling techniques and the differences in the results are evaluated. In all cases the results agree with the available data as well as, or better than the results from earlier schemes.

Carlson, Ann B.↗

Development of Accelerated Kinetic Monte Carlo Code for Simulation of Helium Bubble Evolution

A mesoscale model to predict helium bubble evolution is needed for tritium applications. Such a model requires that the conventional kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations be significantly accelerated. The objective of this report is to (a) highlight the concepts and mathematical expressions of the accelerated method for defect implementation that have not been published, (b) show an example input file to run the kMC code, and (c) provide suggestions on future improvement following my retirement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mars 2020 Surface Mission Performance Modeling: Part 3. Mission Performance Modeling Approach and Results

We have developed a comprehensive model of the Mars 2020 rover surface mission used to identify and evaluate mission productivity and operability challenges and opportunities. The surface mission performance model combines many aspects of rover design, operations approach, system behaviors, and mission constraints into an integrated model of surface mission performance. The surface mission model applies monte-carlo methodologies in order to investigate the key sources of mission performance variability and their effects with respect to overall mission performance. Our modeling efforts aims to investigate and inform engineering design and development efforts, as well as the landing site selection process led by the Mars science community. We believe that an integrated mission performance model such as this is important to aligning engineering and science efforts across the project.

Ono, Masahiro↗

SLIA Reference Architecture Models

The SLIA Reference Architecture Models project, sponsored by the DOE CESER Energy CyberSense Program (Oct 2024–Sep 2025), advanced LLNL’s PySCES simulation tool to better support CyTRICS Prioritization and Initial Risk Assessment (PIRA) reference architectures. Key achievements include enhancements to the PySCES transmission substation facility model, expanded asset coverage, and enhancements to the PySCES code base. Software improvements reduced code complexity, migrated PySCES to Python version 3.11, introduced an object-oriented design, and added a schema database for easier updates and validation. New features support device criticality assessments and a more precise parametric simulation mode. Remaining gaps include model validation, workflow limitations, Monte Carlo convergence issues, full device criticality metric implementation, model fidelity, and general software improvements. Continued development is recommended to address these gaps and fully align PySCES with CyTRICS PIRA requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A radiometric model of an earth radiation budget radiometer optical system with diffuse-specular surfaces

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) is to fly on NASA's Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS) and on NOAA F and NOAA G. Large spatial scale earth energy budget data will be derived primarily from measurements made by the ERBE nonscanning instrument (ERBE-NS). A description is given of a mathematical model capable of simulating the radiometric response of any of the ERBE-NS earth viewing channels. The model uses a Monte Carlo method to accurately account for directional distributions of emission and reflection from optical surfaces which are neither strictly diffuse nor strictly specular. The model computes radiation exchange factors among optical system components, and determines the distribution in the optical system of energy from an outside source. Attention is also given to an approach for implementing the model and results obtained from the implementation.

Luther, M. R.↗

Transient thermal modeling of the nonscanning ERBE detector

A numerical model to predict the transient thermal response of the ERBE nonscanning wide field of view total radiometer channel was developed. The model, which uses Monte Carlo techniques to characterize the radiative component of heat transfer, is described and a listing of the computer program is provided. Application of the model to simulate the actual blackbody calibration procedure is discussed. The use of the model to establish a real time flight data interpretation strategy is recommended. Modification of the model to include a simulated Earth radiation source field and a filter dome is indicated.

Mahan, J. R.↗

Development of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Dataset

This study develops the surface BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) product of the Ames Global Hyperspectral Synthetic Dataset (AGHSD), based on the corresponding MODIS products, to support the NASA Surface Biology and Geology mission development. A main challenge in deriving a hyperspectral dataset from the multi-band satellite products is how to identify a succinct yet robust algorithm that allow us to infer BRDF at unobserved wavelengths based on the few observed bands. Using the theories of radiative transfer in vegetation canopies, we arrive at a simple equation that accurately approximates hyperspectral surface BRDF as the weighted sum of components from the soil and the vegetation. Each of the components is modeled by the product of the spectrally-dependent optical properties of a surface element (the spectra of the soil surface reflectance, the leaf single albedo, or the canopy scattering coefficient) and a spectrally-independent bidirectional scattering function. The optical properties of the soil and the vegetation can be obtained from existing spectral libraries or model simulations. The bidirectional scattering functions are represented by the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse BRDF model, where the linear coefficients are estimated with regression analysis from the multi-band MODIS data. We validate the algorithm with simulations by Monte Carlo Ray Tracing model experiments, and the results are highly consistent with the theoretic derivation. We apply the algorithm to generate the AGHSD BRDF product at 1km and 8-day resolutions for the year of 2019. The results are biogeochemically and physically coherent and consistent, and thus serve the goal to support the science and application development of the SBG community.

Hyperspectral↗

Monte Carlo solution of Boltzmann equation for a simple model of highly nonequilibrium diatomic gases - Translational rotational energy relaxation

Theoretical results pertaining to internally excited translational-rotational energy relaxation in a spatially uniform diatomic gas far removed from solid boundaries are obtained by solving the Boltzmann equation by means of the Monte Carlo direct simulation method. The analysis is based on calculations involving three different types of initial conditions: equilibrium, nonequilibrium-equipartition (i.e., equipartition is satisfied, but the distributions are perturbed), and nonequilibrium-nonequipartition (i.e., both equipartition and the distributions are perturbed). Results of monatomic-gas simulations are also included to facilitate comparisons with the coupled translational-rotational relaxation simulations, and some simulations for a normal shock-wave structure are briefly examined. The results show that: (1) single-step transitions are the significant mechanisms of intermodal energy transfer; (2) translational-rotational transitions are coupled most efficiently for low-lying states of rotationally excited molecules and least efficiently for highly rotationally excited molecules; and (3) relaxation occurs via a successive set of distributions that are not Maxwell-Boltzmann (nonlocal Maxwellian).

Yoshikawa, K. K.↗

Cometary atmospheres: Modeling the spatial distribution of observed neutral radicals

The dependencies on heliocentric velocity for the solar photodissociation lifetime and the solar fluorescence rate of the OH radical were incorporated into the Monte Carlo particle trajectory model for cometary radicals. For the case of CN a study was initiated on the effects of using several different adopted models on the calculation of production rates from filter photometry. Progress in these areas is discussed. A comparison of two different sets of scale length data for cometary C2 and CN is also presented.

Combi, M. R.↗

A realistic guide misalignment model for the Second Target Station instruments at the Spallation Neutron Source

The Second Target Station (STS) at the Spallation Neutron Source, including a suite of initial instrument concepts, are being designed in Oak Ridge. The moderator size at STS is significantly smaller than that of the First Target Station, making the guide misalignment a more prominent concern. Here a realistic misalignment model based on Monte Carlo neutron ray tracing simulation was developed to evaluate the impacts of both the random misalignment and floor settlement on the performance of a toy model of 150 m straight guide system, and MENUS, an STS instrument concept with a typical guide design of two opposing Montel mirrors. The study shows that longer instruments, and instruments with complex curved mirrors/guides are sensitive to significant performance penalties due to misalignments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Probabalistic Risk Analysis and Thermal Margin Process for an Inflatable Aeroshell

Uncertainties always exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. These uncertainties are mitigated in the design by ap-plying margin and factors of safety to the TPS. Entry vehicle TPS is often conservatively over-sized for the heat loads that are experienced along the entry trajectory by stacking worst-case scenarios together. Additionally, the current TPS design and margin process used by NASA offers very little insight into the risk of over-temperature during flight and the reliability of the heat shield performance [1,3]. A probabilistic margin process can be used to calculate the amount of TPS margin necessary to survive a given entry heat load at a specified level of risk [2,3,4]. The vehicle’s initial entry state (entry velocity, flight path angle, and entry mass) determines the expected atmospheric entry environmental conditions and resulting heat load that the entry vehicle will experience. If there is flexibility in the entry state, then this process can be used to select an appropriate combination of entry state parameters and TPS size to target a desired reentry reliability. This probabilistic margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, entry-trajectory design, and TPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive TPS margin from being applied. The probabilistic TPS margin process has been performed to determine TPS thickness and entry heating constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low Earth Orbit Flight Experiment of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) flight project. The process is used in a manner to size the entry heat load for a given flexible TPS (FTPS) thickness so that it meets project reliability standards while allowing the FTPS and the underlying inflatable structure (IS) to be pushed to adequately high temperatures. Since the LOFTID project is an experimental flight demonstration, it is de-sired to drive the FTPS and IS to temperatures that cover a large range of their thermal response models’ applicability. This will allow the thermal response models to be better improved and validated post-flight using LOFTID’s extensive instrumentation embedded within the aeroshell. The presentation demonstrates how uncertainty analysis is carried out using an end-to-end Monte Carlo process where three separate Monte Carlo simulations are run in sequence. The first Monte Carlo simulation operates on the entry trajectory model to generate trajectory parameter dispersions that are fed into the second Monte Carlo simulation. The second Monte Carlo simulation operates on the aerothermodynamics model to generate aeroheating parameter dispersions that are fed into the third Monte Carlo simulation. The third Monte Carlo simulation operates on the FTPS material thermal response model to generate the final FTPS/IS thermal response dispersions. The end-to-end Monte Carlo simulation propagates the uncertainties of each model into the next to quantify the resulting uncertainty of the FTPS/IS thermal response. The fractional contributions of the uncertain parameters in the trajectory, aerothermal, and thermal response models to the variance in the FTPS/IS thermal response is determined as a byproduct of the Monte Carlo analysis. The structural uncertainty of the FTPS thermal response model is evaluated by flight relevant ground testing and model error analysis using test measurements. This probabilistic TPS margin process had never been applied to an entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven A. Tobin↗

Thermal Analysis of a Solid Particle Light-Trapping Planar Cavity Receiver Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Concentrated solar power (CSP) is one of the most effective ways of harnessing solar power to create efficient, durable, and resilient energy systems. This study entails thermal modeling and analysis of a novel central tower receiver configuration. This receiver uses solid particles as the heat transfer fluid (HTF), a promising option for third-generation CSP systems. The configuration considered here is the light-trapping planar cavity receiver (LTPCR) introduced by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. While heat transfer studies of various LTPCR subsystems have been done, system-level thermal analysis of the LTPCR receiver has not been attempted. This study also presents important sensitivity analyses of the operating parameters of the CSP system, which can help guide the design of future central tower receivers. This study employs Ansys Fluent as a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool to model fluid dynamics and heat transfer in the receiver, intending to quantify its thermal performance. The model seamlessly integrates Monte Carlo ray tracing data, which generates absorbed solar flux profiles from the heliostat field design, with the heat transfer characteristics of the fluidized particle bed. This unified model is designed to accurately predict the thermal behavior of the LTPCR. Analysis of preliminary results reveals that the primary loss mechanisms are radiative and natural convective losses, in that order. Based on observations from a baseline case, several strategies are suggested and numerically tested. These solutions include selective cooling of high-temperature regions and manipulation of particle bed parameters. Selective cooling of high-temperature regions reduced the peak temperature by 151 degrees C and decreased thermal losses by 0.9%. Improving the particle-wall heat transfer coefficient (P-W HTC) of the particle bed decreased the thermal losses by 1.7% and decreased the peak temperatures by 57 degrees C. Decreasing the particle inlet temperature (PIT) also reduced thermal losses by 3.5% and decreased peak temperatures by 29 degrees C. Compounding these strategies improved the thermal losses of the receiver from 13.5% in the baseline case to 7.5%. Additionally, the study explores the variation in thermal performance across different locations of the receiver, where a variation of thermal losses from 12.9% to 17.3% is found. This allows a comprehensive evaluation of potential improvements in efficiency and temperature management.

computational fluid dynamics↗

Comparison of the measured and predicted response of the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment active cavity radiometer during solar observations

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment consists of an array of radiometric instruments placed in earth orbit by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to monitor the longwave and visible components of the earth's radiation budget. Presented is a dynamic electrothermal model of the active cavity radiometer used to measure the earth's total radiative exitance. Radiative exchange is modeled using the Monte Carlo method and transient conduction is treated using the finite element method. Also included is the feedback circuit which controls electrical substitution heating of the cavity. The model is shown to accurately predict the dynamic response of the instrument during solar calibration.

Mahan, J. R.↗

Predictions of core plasma performance for the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is designed to be a high-field, medium-size tokamak aimed at achieving net energy gain with ion cyclotron range-of-frequencies (ICRF) as its primary auxiliary heating mechanism. Empirical predictions with conservative physics indicate that SPARC baseline plasmas would reach $\textit{Q}$ ≈ 11, which is well above its mission objective of $\textit{Q}$ > 2. To build confidence that SPARC will be successful, physics-based integrated modelling has also been performed. The TRANSP code coupled with the theory-based trapped gyro-Landau fluid (TGLF) turbulence model and EPED predictions for pedestal stability find that $\textit{Q}$ ≈ 9 is attainable in standard H-mode operation and confirms $\textit{Q}$ > 2 operation is feasible even with adverse assumptions. In this analysis, ion cyclotron waves are simulated with the full wave TORIC code and alpha heating is modelled with the Monte–Carlo fast ion NUBEAM module. Detailed analysis of expected turbulence regimes with linear and nonlinear CGYRO simulations is also presented, demonstrating that profile predictions with the TGLF reduced model are in reasonable agreement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Premixing quality and flame stability: A theoretical and experimental study

Models for predicting flame ignition and blowout in a combustor primary zone are presented. A correlation for the blowoff velocity of premixed turbulent flames is developed using the basic quantities of turbulent flow, and the laminar flame speed. A statistical model employing a Monte Carlo calculation procedure is developed to account for nonuniformities in a combustor primary zone. An overall kinetic rate equation is used to describe the fuel oxidation process. The model is used to predict the lean ignition and blow out limits of premixed turbulent flames; the effects of mixture nonuniformity on the lean ignition limit are explored using an assumed distribution of fuel-air ratios. Data on the effects of variations in inlet temperature, reference velocity and mixture uniformity on the lean ignition and blowout limits of gaseous propane-air flames are presented.

Radhakrishnan, K.↗

Reparameterizing Litter Decomposition Using a Simplified Monte Carlo Method Improves Litter Decay Simulated by a Microbial Model and Alters Bioenergy Soil Carbon Estimates

Litter decomposition determines soil organic matter (SOM) formation and plant-available nutrient cycles. Therefore, accurate model representation of litter decomposition is critical to improving soil carbon (C) projections of bioenergy feedstocks. Soil C models that simulate microbial physiology (i.e., microbial models) are new to bioenergy agriculture, and their parameterization is often based on small datasets or manual calibration to reach benchmarks. Here, we reparameterized litter decomposition in a microbial soil C model (CORPSE - Carbon, Organisms, Rhizosphere, and Protection in the Soil Environment) using the continental-scale Long-term Inter-site Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) dataset which documents decomposition across a range of litter qualities over a decade. Here, we conducted a simplified Monte Carlo simulation that constrained parameter values to reduce computational costs. The LIDET-derived parameters improved modeled C and nitrogen (N) remaining, decomposition rates, and litter mean residence times as compared to Baseline parameters. We applied the LIDET litter decomposition parameters to a microbial bioenergy model (Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen – Bioenergy Carbon, Rhizosphere, Organisms, and Protection) to examine soil C estimates generated by Baseline and LIDET parameters. LIDET parameters increased estimated soil C in bioenergy feedstocks, with even greater increases under elevated plant inputs (i.e., by increasing residue, N fertilization). This was due to the integrated effects of plant litter quantity, quality, and agricultural practices (tillage, fertilization). Collectively, we developed a simple framework for using large-scale datasets to inform the parameterization of microbial models that impacts projections of soil C for bioenergy feedstocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗