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At least 613 records · Page 34

Measurement of the anomalous spin precession frequency $\omega_a$ in the Muon g - 2 experiment at Fermilab

The muon magnetic anomaly aµ = (gµ - 2)/2 is a low-energy observable,which can be both measured and computed to high precision, making ita sensitive test of the Standard Model (SM). In April 2021, the E989 Collaborationat Fermilab National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) published the first resultbased on the first year of data taking (Run-1), and in August 2023 a new resultwas published based on two more years of data taking (Run-2 and Run-3). Thenew result was in agreement with the first one and with the previous experimentat Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), and the combination of these resultsbrought the uncertainty on the experimental measurement of aµ to the unprecedentedvalue of 0.19 parts per million (ppm). This paper will present details aboutthe improvements and upgrades since the 2021 result, and it will describe the finalstatistical and systematic sources of uncertainty on .a in the 2023 result.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Energy-peak based method to measure top quark mass via B -hadron decay lengths

We develop a method for the determination of the top quark mass using the distribution of the decay length of the B -hadrons originating from its decay. This technique is based on our earlier observation regarding the location of the peak of the b quark energy distribution. Such “energy-peak” methods enjoy a greater degree of model-independence with respect to the kinematics of top quark production compared to earlier proposals. The CMS experiment has implemented the energy-peak method using associated b -jet energy as an approximation for b quark energy. The new method uses B -hadron decay lengths, which are related to b quark energies by convolution. The advantage of the new decay length method is that it can be applied in a way that evades jet-energy scale (JES) uncertainties. Indeed, CMS has measured the top quark mass using B -hadron decay lengths, but they did not incorporate the energy-peak method. Therefore, mismodeling of top quark transverse momentum remains a large uncertainty in their result. We demonstrate that, using energy-peak methods, this systematic uncertainty can become negligible. We show that with the current LHC data set, a sub-GeV statistical uncertainty on the top quark mass can be attained with this method. To achieve a comparable systematic uncertainty as is true for many methods based on exclusive or semi-inclusive observables using hadrons, we find that the quark-hadron transition needs to be described significantly better than is the case with current fragmentation functions and hadronization models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Precision measurement of lifetime and branching ratios of the 4⁢𝑓 13⁡ 5⁢𝑑⁢6⁢𝑠 1 ⁢[5/2] 5/2 state in Yb + ions

We report spectroscopic and time-resolved experimental observations to characterize the [Xe]⁢4⁢𝑓 13 ⁡( 2 𝐹$^𝑜_{5/2}$)⁢5⁢𝑑⁢6⁢𝑠⁡( 1 𝐷)⁢ 1 ⁢[5/2]$^𝑜_{5/2}$ state in 172 Yb + ions. We access this state from the metastable 4⁢𝑓 14 ⁡5⁢𝑑⁡( 2 𝐷 3/2,5/2 ) manifold and observe an unexpectedly long lifetime of 𝜏 = 37.9⁢(9) ⁢µ⁢s that allows visible Rabi oscillations and resolved-sideband spectroscopy. Using a combination of coherent population dynamics, high-fidelity detection and heralded state preparation, and optical pumping methods, we measure the branching ratios to the 2 𝐷 3/2 , 2 𝐷 5/2 , and 2 𝑆 1/2 states to be 0.359⁢(2), 0.639(2), and 0.0023⁢(16), respectively. The branching ratio to the 4⁢𝑓 13⁡ 6⁢𝑠 2 ⁡( 2 𝐹 7/2 ) is compatible with zero within our experimental resolution. We also report measurements of Landé 𝑔-factor of the 1 ⁢[5/2]$^𝑜_{5/2}$ state. Further, the branching ratio of the 2 𝐷 5/2 to 2 𝑆 1/2 decay in 172 Yb + was measured to be 0.188(3), improving its relative uncertainty by an order of magnitude. Our measurements provide experimental benchmarks for better understanding the atomic structure of Yb + ions, which still lacks accurate numerical descriptions, and the use of high-lying excited states for partial detection and qubit manipulation in the omg architecture.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

FY24 Progress Report on Viscosity and Thermal Conductivity Measurements of Nuclear Industry Relevant Chloride Salts: An Experimental and Computational Study

As presented in this report, experimental and computational techniques were performed to assess the viscosity and thermal conductivity of key alkali and actinide chloride mixtures for molten salt reactor developers. These mixtures were pure LiCl, NaCl-KCl, LiCl-NaCl, LiCl-KCl, LiCl-NaCl-KCl, and NaCl-UCl 3 . Experimental measurements of viscosity were performed with a rolling ball viscometer, whereas experimental measurements of thermal conductivity were performed with a variable gap apparatus. Additional benchmarking work was performed using both property measurement systems to prepare for x-ray radiography in stainless-steel crucibles for viscosity and to ensure that calibration methods were accurate for thermal conductivity before assessing the NaCl-UCl 3 system. Validation data for the NaCl-UCl 3 in literature are minimal. Details on the calibration methods, salt measurement processes, and sources of error and uncertainty are discussed in detail for both property measurements. The computational methods described herein involved ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) calculations using CP2K. The calculations were performed for the LiCl-KCl-NaCl and NaCl-UCl 3 systems. These calculations not only provided thermophysical property estimations for comparison to experimental data, but they also allowed for the determination of diffusion coefficients, coordination numbers, and radial distribution functions to provide insight into ion mobility and local coordination environments, which is linked to macroscopic property trends.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Constraints on the structure growth from cluster number counts

Recent advancements in methods used in wide-area surveys have demonstrated the reliability of the number density of galaxy clusters as a viable tool for precision cosmology. Beyond testing the current cosmological paradigm, cluster number counts can also be used to investigate the discrepancies currently affecting cosmological measurements. In particular, cosmological studies based on cosmic shear and other large-scale structure probes routinely find a value for the amplitude of the fluctuations in the universe S​ 8 = σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 smaller than the one inferred from the primary cosmic microwave background. In this work, we investigate this tension by measuring structure evolution across cosmic time as probed by the number counts of massive halos with the first SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey cluster catalog in the western Galactic hemisphere, complemented with the overlapping Dark Energy Survey Year-3, Kilo-Degree Survey, and Hyper Suprime-Cam data for weak lensing mass calibration, by implementing two different parameterizations and a model-agnostic method. In the first model, we measured the cosmic linear growth index as γ = 1.19 ± 0.21, which is in tension with the standard value of γ = 0.55 but in good statistical agreement with other large-scale structure probes. The second model is a phenomenological scenario in which we rescale the linear matter power spectrum at low redshift to investigate a potential reduction of structure formation, and it provided similar results. Finally, in a third strategy, we considered a standard ΛCDM cosmology, but we separated the cluster catalog into five redshift bins, measuring the cosmological parameters in each and inferring the evolution of the structure formation, finding hints of a reduction. Interestingly, the S ​8 value inferred from the number counts of the cluster eRASS1 when we add a degree of freedom to the matter power spectrum recovers the value inferred by cosmic shear studies. The observed reduction in the growth rate or systematic uncertainties associated with various measurements may account for the discrepancy in the S 8 ​ values suggested between cosmic shear probes and eROSITA cluster number counts and Planck CMB measurements.

cosmological parameters↗

Search for direct CP violation in charged charmless B→PV decays

Measurements of C P asymmetry in charmless B → P V decays are presented, where P and V denote a pseudoscalar and a vector meson, respectively. Five different B → P V decays from four final states, B ± → π ± π + π - , B ± → K ± π + π - , B ± → K ± K + K - and B ± → π ± K + K - are analyzed. The measurements are based on a method that does not require full amplitude analyses, and are performed using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by LHCb between 2015 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.9 fb - 1 . In the π + π - P -wave, in the region dominated by the B ± → ρ ( 770 ) 0 K ± decay, a C P asymmetry of A C P = + 0.150 ± 0.019 ± 0.011 is measured, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. This is the first observation of C P violation in this process. For the other four decay channels, in regions dominated by the B ± → ρ ( 770 ) 0 π ± , B ± → K ( ¯ ) * ( 892 ) 0 π ± , B ± → K ( ¯ ) * ( 892 ) 0 K ± and B ± → Φ ( 1020 ) K ± decays, C P asymmetries in the P -wave compatible with zero are measured.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Research in Neutrino Physics (Final Technical Report)

The goal of the experimental neutrino efforts at Louisiana State University is to measure the properties of neutrinos and to improve our understanding of neutrino interactions. In pursuit of this goal, the group will continue its Intensity Frontier work on the DUNE experiment at Fermilab and the T2K experiment at J-PARC, Japan. The current work is focused on understanding how neutrinos change flavor and on the possibility for asymmetry between neutrinos and anti-neutrinos. The effort on T2K includes physics measurements using the collected T2K data and preparation for the second phase T2K-II data with an increased beam power and the newly upgraded ND280 detector, featuring a novel 3D fine grained scintillation tracker with 4π acceptance and 3D readout. T2K is in a position to improve our understanding of neutrino nucleus interactions which continue to be one of the largest systematic uncertainties for neutrino oscillation measurements. On DUNE, the effort is on analyzing the data collected by the ProtoDUNE-SP prototype at CERN and on the design, installation, and commissioning of ProtoDUNE-II and later the DUNE Far Detector cold electronics. The final DUNE Module-1 components will be fully characterized by ProtoDUNE-II and the collected data will be used to improve and tune simulation and reconstruction algorithms, and to measure hadron scattering cross section, used to improve the modeling of neutrino final state interactions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Electron and photon efficiencies in LHC Run 2 with the ATLAS experiment

Precision measurements of electron reconstruction, identification, and isolation efficiencies and photon identification efficiencies are presented. They use the full Run 2 data sample collected by the ATLAS experiment in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV during the years 2015–2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 . The measured electron identification efficiencies have uncertainties that are around 30%–50% smaller than the previous Run 2 results due to an improved methodology and the inclusion of more data. A better pile-up subtraction method leads to electron isolation efficiencies that are more independent of the amount of pile-up activity. Updated photon identification efficiencies are also presented, using the full Run 2 data. When compared to the previous measurement, a 30%–40% smaller uncertainty is observed on the photon identification efficiencies, thanks to the increased amount of available data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Quantifying Streambed Grain Size, Uncertainty, and Hydrobiogeochemical Parameters Using Machine Learning Model YOLO

Abstract Streambed grain sizes control river hydro‐biogeochemical (HBGC) processes and functions. However, measuring their quantities, distributions, and uncertainties is challenging due to the diversity and heterogeneity of natural streams. This work presents a photo‐driven, artificial intelligence (AI)‐enabled, and theory‐based workflow for extracting the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed grain sizes from photos. Specifically, we first trained You Only Look Once, an object detection AI, using 11,977 grain labels from 36 photos collected from nine different stream environments. We demonstrated its accuracy with a coefficient of determination of 0.98, a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.98, and a mean absolute relative error of 6.65% in predicting the median grain size of 20 ground‐truth photos representing nine typical stream environments. The AI is then used to extract the grain size distributions and determine their characteristic grain sizes, including the 10th, 50th, 60th, and 84th percentiles, for 1,999 photos taken at 66 sites within a watershed in the Northwest US. The results indicate that the 10th, median, 60th, and 84th percentiles of the grain sizes follow log‐normal distributions, with most likely values of 2.49, 6.62, 7.68, and 10.78 cm, respectively. The average uncertainties associated with these values are 9.70%, 7.33%, 9.27%, and 11.11%, respectively. These data allow for the computation of the quantities, distributions, and uncertainties of streambed HBGC parameters, including Manning's coefficient, Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor, top layer interstitial velocity magnitude, and nitrate uptake velocity. Additionally, major sources of uncertainty in grain sizes and their impact on HBGC parameters are examined.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Capability at ORNL: High Precision Uranium Titration

Destructive analytical measurements establish a nuclear facility’s nuclear material inventory and inventory differences for Nuclear Material Accountancy and Control. A nuclear laboratory’s ability to perform accurate high-precision analytical measurements is key for tracking large inventories within a facility’s material balance areas and during production to track material movement through dynamic processes. For uranium, these measurements are made by using several established high-precision measurement protocols. These include isotope dilution mass spectrometry, gravimetry, and potentiometric titrations. Whatever measurement technique a nuclear lab chooses to use, reference materials (RMs) with certified attributes and accompanying uncertainties are used to calibrate measurement systems, and are the cornerstone for accurate results. In addition to calibration, RMs provide for metrological traceability, are used for method development and validation, and thus provide critical evaluations of the appropriateness and performance of analytical processes used. Evaluations may include validation that a method is fit-for-purpose, quantification of systematic and random biases, and the evaluation of long-term and short-term performance metrics. High-precision measurement techniques require that measured attributes be certified to a high degree of precision in the RMs used—ultimately, to a higher degree than that of the measurement technique itself. The US authority on the production of special nuclear material Certified Reference Materials is the NBL Program Office (NBLPO), formally known as New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL). The NBLPO is responsible for the sales and distribution of existing NBL certified reference materials (CRMs) and for the production of the next generation of nuclear RMs. To accomplish its mission, NBLPO is establishing key base capabilities within the DOE laboratory complex that formerly existed at the NBL laboratory. The Nuclear Analytical Chemistry (NAC) section within the Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently working with NBLPO to set up laboratory and measurement capabilities to provide measurements and capabilities for production and/or recertification of existing and future CRMs for uranium assay. The NBL-developed high-precision titration (HPT) method is a critically-evaluated, extremely precise and accurate primary method utilized for the determination of uranium content in a variety of uranium materials. The HPT method, combined with detailed balance weighing protocols, provides for an analytical methodology that is unsurpassed in precision and one in which all sources of error have been evaluated, a requirement of CRM certification. HPT capability within the United States was lost with the closure of the labs at NBL. The NAC has been collaborating with NBLPO to stand up and demonstrate the capability to perform uranium assay via HPT at ORNL. HPT can produce results with an expanded uncertainty of approximately 0.01% for pure uranium compounds, with typical precisions of <0.006%. The major tasks required to stand up the method at ORNL were the refurbishment of a dedicated lab and equipment setup, procedure development, analyst training, establishing method-specific quality assurance, and qualification of an analyst to perform the method. This report summarizes these tasks, outlines the documents drafted, and gives the outcome of the qualification titrations.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Measurement of Telescope Transmission Using a Collimated Beam Projector

With the increasingly large number of Type Ia supernova being detected by current-generation survey telescopes, and even more expected with the upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, the precision of cosmological measurements will become limited by systematic uncertainties in flux calibration rather than statistical noise. One major source of systematic error in determining SNe Ia color evolution (needed for distance estimation) is uncertainty in telescope transmission, both within and between surveys. We introduce here the Collimated Beam Projector (CBP), which is meant to measure a telescope transmission with collimated light. The collimated beam more closely mimics a stellar wave front as compared to flat-field-based instruments, allowing for more precise handling of systematic errors such as those from ghosting and filter angle-of-incidence dependence. As a proof of concept, we present CBP measurements of the StarDICE prototype telescope, achieving a standard (1σ) uncertainty of 3% on average over the full wavelength range measured with a single beam illumination.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

19 Ne level structure for explosive nucleosynthesis

Ne 19 is an important isotope in nuclear astrophysics due to its role in both the F 18 ( p , α ) O 15 and O 15 ( α , γ ) Ne 19 reactions in novae and Type I x-ray bursts, respectively. The energy levels of Ne 19 near the α and proton thresholds ( S α = 3529 keV, S p = 6410 keV) correspond to resonances in both of these reactions. Previous measurements to study the structure of Ne 19 have focused on both regions in an effort to constrain these reaction rates. Discrepancies in the energies, spins, and parities for levels in Ne 19 from previous measurements contribute to the reaction-rate uncertainties. Gamma rays from the depopulation of excited states in Ne 19 were measured to reduce the level-energy uncertainties and inconsistencies in previous spin-parity assignments.The F 19 ( He 3 , t ) Ne 19 reaction was used to elucidate the structure of Ne 19 levels up to E x = 6.9 MeV. The reaction products were measured using Gammasphere ORRUBA: Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies—a coupling of the Oak Ridge Rutgers University Barrel Array and Gammasphere at Argonne National Laboratory. Tritons produced in the reaction were measured in coincidence with γ rays from the deexcitation of Ne 19 energy levels. Previously unobserved transitions allowed for discrepancies in the resonance properties relevant to these two reactions to be resolved. In total, 41 transitions from 21 energy levels were measured in Ne 19 , with 21 of those transitions being previously unobserved. Of particular importance, transitions from two 3 / 2 + states with energies of 6423(3) and 6441(3) keV, crucial for accurate estimations of the F 18 ( p , α ) O 15 reaction rate, were found. Energies and spin-parities of important energy levels near the proton and α thresholds were measured and some of the discrepancies in previous measurements were resolved. Overall, measurement of the two near-threshold 3 / 2 + states reduced the calculated upper limit of the F 18 ( p , α ) O 15 reaction rate by factors of 1.5–17 in the nova temperature range.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Inferring Structural Parameters of Low-Surface-Brightness-Galaxies with Uncertainty Quantification using Bayesian Neural Networks

Measuring the structural parameters (size, total brightness, light concentration, etc.) of galaxies is a significant first step towards a quantitative description of different galaxy populations. In this work, we demonstrate that a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) can be used for the inference, with uncertainty quantification, of such morphological parameters from simulated low-surface-brightness galaxy images. Compared to traditional profile-fitting methods, we show that the uncertainties obtained using BNNs are comparable in magnitude, well-calibrated, and the point estimates of the parameters are closer to the true values. Our method is also significantly faster, which is very important with the advent of the era of large galaxy surveys and big data in astrophysics.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Spatial and temporal variation in forest transpiration across a forested boreal peatland complex

Transpiration is a globally important component of evapotranspiration. Careful upscaling of transpiration from point measurements is thus crucial for quantifying water and energy fluxes. In spatially heterogeneous landscapes common across the boreal biome, upscaled transpiration estimates are difficult to determine due to variation in local environmental conditions (e.g., basal area, soil moisture, permafrost). Here, we sought to determine stand-level attributes that influence transpiration scalars for a forested boreal peatland complex consisting of sparsely treed wetlands and densely treed permafrost plateaus as land cover types. The objectives were to quantify spatial and temporal variability in stand-level transpiration, and to identify sources of uncertainty when scaling point measurements to the stand-level. Using heat ratio method sap flow sensors, we determined sap velocity for black spruce and tamarack for 2-week periods during peak growing season in 2013, 2017 and 2018. We found greater basal area, drier soils, and the presence of permafrost increased daily sap velocity in individual trees, suggesting that local environmental conditions are important in dictating sap velocity. When sap velocity was scaled to stand-level transpiration using gridded 20 × 20 m resolution data across the ~10 ha Scotty Creek ForestGEO plot, we observed significant differences in daily plot transpiration among years (0.17–0.30 mm), and across land cover types. Daily transpiration was lowest in grid-cells with sparsely treed wetlands compared to grid-cells with well-drained and densely treed permafrost plateaus, where daily transpiration reached 0.80 mm, or 30% of the daily evapotranspiration. When transpiration scalars (i.e., sap velocity) were not specific to the different land cover types (i.e., permafrost plateaus and wetlands), scaled stand-level transpiration was overestimated by 42%. To quantify the relative contribution of tree transpiration to ecosystem evapotranspiration, we recommend that sampling designs stratify across local environmental conditions to accurately represent variation associated with land cover types, especially with different hydrological functioning as encountered in rapidly thawing boreal peatland complexes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Anisotropic Circumgalactic Medium of Massive Early-type Galaxies

Using measurements of the [O iii], Hα, and [N ii] emission line fluxes originating in the cool (T ~10 4 K) gas that populates the halos of massive early-type galaxies with stellar masses greater than 10 10.4 M ⊙ , we explore the recent conjecture that active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity preferentially removes the circumgalactic medium (CGM) along the polar (minor-axis) direction. We find deficits in the mean emission line flux of [O III] and Hα (65% and 43%, respectively) along the polar versus planar directions, although due to the large uncertainties in these difficult measurements the results are of marginal statistical significance (1.5σ). More robustly (97%–99.9% confidence depending on the statistical test), diagnostic line ratios show stronger AGN ionization signatures along the polar direction at small radii than at other angles or radii. Our results are consistent with the conjecture of an anisotropic CGM in massive early-type galaxies, suggested on independent grounds, that is tied to AGN activity and begin to show the potential of CGM mapping using emission lines.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian automated weighting of aggregated DFT, MD, and experimental data for candidate thermodynamic models of aluminum with uncertainty quantification

Atomic-scale modeling methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) can predict the thermodynamic properties of materials at a lower cost than experimental measurements. However, their regular usage in thermodynamic model construction is hampered by the lack of quantitative agreement with experimental measurements and the lack of uncertainty estimates on the data. To make regular usage of this atomistic simulation data, it is important to assess whether the atomistic simulation datasets, by themselves or in combination with experimental measurements, result in the same physics-informed models best supported by experimental measurements alone. Here, models of aluminum thermodynamic properties are discussed using three data sources: atomistic calculations (DFT and MD), experiments, and a combination of atomistic calculations and experiments. The study shows that, after ensuring self-consistency in predicting key invariant points, both experimental measurements and atomistic calculations can significantly contribute to an optimal model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗