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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bioelectrochemical reactor to manage anthropogenic sulfate pollution for freshwater ecosystems: Mathematical modeling and experimental validation

Anthropogenic sulfate loading into otherwise low-sulfate freshwater systems can cause significant ecological consequences as a biogeochemical stressor. To address this challenge, in situ bioremediation technologies have been developed to leverage naturally occurring microorganisms that transform sulfate into sulfide rather than implementing resource-intensive physio-chemical processes. However, bioremediation technologies often require the supply of electron donors to facilitate biological sulfate reduction. Bioelectrochemical systems (BES) can be an alternative approach for supplying molecular hydrogen as an electron donor for sulfate-reducing bacteria through water electrolysis. Although the fundamental mechanisms behind BESs have been studied, limited research has evaluated the design and operational parameters of treatment systems when developing BESs on a scale relevant to environmental systems. Further, this study aimed to develop an application-based mathematical model to evaluate the performance of BESs across a range of reactor configurations and operational modes. The model was based on sulfate transformation by hydrogenotrophic sulfate-reducing bacteria coupled with the recovery of solid iron sulfide species formed by the oxidative dissolution of dissolved ferrous iron from a stainless steel anode. Sulfate removal closely corresponded to the rate of electrolytic hydrogen production and hydraulic residence time but was less sensitive to specific microbial rate constants. The mathematical model results were compared to experimental data from a pilot-scale BES tested with nonacidic mine drainage as a case study. The close agreement between the mathematical model and the pilot-scale BES experiment highlights the efficacy of using a mathematical model as a tool to develop a conceptual design of a scaled-up treatment system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Wormholes without averaging

After averaging over fermion couplings, SYK has a collective field description that sometimes has “wormhole” solutions. We study the fate of these wormholes when the couplings are fixed. Working mainly in a simple model, we find that the wormhole saddles persist, but that new saddles also appear elsewhere in the integration space — “half-wormholes.” The wormhole contributions depend only weakly on the specific choice of couplings, while the half-wormhole contributions are strongly sensitive. The half-wormholes are crucial for factorization of decoupled systems with fixed couplings, but they vanish after averaging, leaving the non-factorizing wormhole behind.

1/N Expansion↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cell-Free Systems Biology: Characterizing Central Metabolism of Clostridium thermocellum with a Three-Enzyme Cascade Reaction

Genetic approaches have been traditionally used to understand microbial metabolism, but this process can be slow in nonmodel organisms due to limited genetic tools. An alternative approach is to study metabolism directly in the cell lysate. This avoids the need for genetic tools and is routinely used to study individual enzymatic reactions but is not generally used to study systems-level properties of metabolism. Here we demonstrate a new approach that we call “cell-free systems biology”, where we use well-characterized enzymes and multienzyme cascades to serve as sources or sinks of intermediate metabolites. This allows us to isolate subnetworks within metabolism and study their systems-level properties. To demonstrate this, we worked with a threeenzyme cascade reaction that converts pyruvate to 2,3-butanediol. Although it has been previously used in cell-free systems, its pH dependence was not well characterized, limiting its utility as a sink for pyruvate. We showed that improved proton accounting allowed better prediction of pH changes and that active pH control allowed 2,3-butanediol titers of up to 2.1 M (189 g/L) from acetoin and 1.6 M (144 g/L) from pyruvate. The improved proton accounting provided a crucial insight that preventing the escape of CO 2 from the system largely eliminated the need for active pH control, dramatically simplifying our experimental setup. We then used this cascade reaction to understand limits to product formation in Clostridium thermocellum, an organism with potential applications for cellulosic biofuel production. We showed that the fate of pyruvate is largely controlled by electron availability and that reactions upstream of pyruvate limit overall product formation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

V-HAMSTeR v1.0.0

V-HAMSTeR is a bioinformatics software tool designed to predict the hosts of viruses directly from genomic sequences. It can be used by researchers to predict animal, prokaryotic, plant, protist or fungal viral hosts including viruses that may be fragmented or discovered in environmental metagenomic datasets. Features & Uses: The software employs a novel dual-stream deep learning architecture that dynamically fuses implicit sequence embeddings from a genomic foundation model with 13 explicit, handcrafted biological features (e.g., coding density and strand switch rates). To ensure maximum reliability, V=HAMSTeR deploys a 5-fold deep ensemble calibrated via Joint Temperature Scaling, providing users with statistically rigorous confidence probabilities. It also features an automated sequence chunking and mean-pooling module to seamlessly process variable-length contigs. Advantages Over Similar Technologies: Existing tools (e.g., IPEV, RNAVirHost) typically rely on either basic k-mers or isolated neural networks. V-HAMSTeR's hybrid architecture captures both broad genomic context and specific biological motifs that standalone foundation models often miss. Furthermore, unlike competitor tools that struggle with incomplete data or exhibit extreme overconfidence, V-HAMSTeR is explicitly benchmarked and mathematically calibrated for fragmented assemblies (1kb–10kb). This makes it uniquely robust, accurate, and trustworthy for the messy reality of real-world environmental viromics.

Grigson, Susie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2021

Staged progression epidemic models for the transmission of invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) with treatment

We develop and analyze a stage-progression compartmental model to study the emerging invasive nontyphoidal Salmonella (iNTS) epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. iNTS bloodstream infections are often fatal, and the diverse and non-specific clinical features of iNTS make it difficult to diagnose. We focus our study on identifying approaches that can reduce the incidence of new infections. In sub-Saharan Africa, transmission and mortality are correlated with the ongoing HIV epidemic and severe malnutrition. We use our model to quantify the impact that increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infected adults and reducing malnutrition in children would have on mortality from iNTS in the population. We consider immunocompromised subpopulations in the region with major risk factors for mortality, such as malaria and malnutrition among children and HIV infection and ART coverage in both children and adults. We parameterize the progression rates between infection stages using the branching probabilities and estimated time spent at each stage. We interpret the basic reproduction number R 0 as the total contribution from an infinite infection loop produced by the asymptomatic carriers in the infection chain. The results indicate that the asymptomatic HIV+ adults without ART serve as the driving force of infection for the iNTS epidemic. We conclude that the worst disease outcome is among the pediatric population, which has the highest infection rates and death counts. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the most effective strategies to reduce iNTS mortality in the studied population are to improve the ART coverage among high-risk HIV+ adults and reduce malnutrition among children.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

A study of radiation environment in space and its biological effects

Biological effects on man in space resulting from galactic and solar cosmic radiation are discussed. Importance of secondary ions which contribute to galactic cosmic radiation hazards is analyzed. Mathematical model to show rate of production of secondary ions of given atomic number at various points in absorber is presented.

Curtis, S. B.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Study of high-g effects in animals

General aspects of animal centrifugation are examined. It is shown that once a covariance is established and the nature of the kinetics is determined it is possible to calculate a regression of the biological change (with suitable numerical transforms of the data) upon field strength. This should yield a rather simple equation containing two arbitrary constants: a, the zero intercept (a mathematical prediction of the magnitude of the parameter y, when G = 0); and b, the proportionality coefficient, the change in the parameter y per unit change in G: Y = a + bG.

Smith, A. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A state-of-the-art review of experimental and computational studies of granular materials: Properties, advances, challenges, and future directions

Modeling of heterogeneous materials and media is a problem of fundamental importance to a wide class of phenomena and systems, ranging from condensed matter physics, soft materials, and composite media to porous media, biological systems, geosystems, ceramic engineering, pharmaceutical science and even in space discoveries. Among the most important materials are granular systems, which have received intense interest from the engineering, physics, and mathematics communities. In this review paper, the recent developments and new advances in experimental, and computational methods on a variety of scales and physics that extend understanding to a wide range of materials and phenomena are reviewed. Experimental advances include computed neutron and nanometer-scale tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, refractive index matching, digital image correlation, acoustic emission analysis, and the most recent 4D techniques. Furthermore, a tremendous shift has occurred from the continuum scale to micro-scale and developing multiscale approaches. As such, various computational methods, including, constitutive modeling, discrete modeling, and multiscale approaches, have been developed. In conclusion, aside from all these evolutions, more complicated modeling called coupled, or multiphysics, systems representing a simultaneous presence of heat, fluid, chemical variation, and mechanical effect are also explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Budget-Constrained Sizing of Renewable and Energy Storage Systems for Farm-Scale Ammonia Production Within the Food-Energy-Water Nexus

In the transition toward sustainable agriculture, farms have emerged as eco-friendly pioneers, harnessing clean hybrid wind and solar systems to improve farm performance. A concern in this paradigm is the effective sizing of renewable energy systems to ensure optimal energy use within budget considerations. This research focuses on optimizing renewable energy sizing in small-scale ammonia production to meet specific farm demands and enhance local resilience, emphasizing the interplay between environmental and economic factors. These findings promise increased energy efficiency and sustainability in this innovative agricultural sector. Additionally, our approach considers small-scale ammonia plant needs and the dynamic relationships between ammonia, water, and farm demands. Simulations demonstrate substantial cost savings in farm electricity consumption. Specifically, scenarios with renewable energy integration in the farm can reduce at least 13% electricity cost compared to a grid-dependent system in the 15-year simulation.

ammonia↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards a dynamic photosynthesis model to guide yield improvement in C4 crops

Summary The most productive C4 food and biofuel crops, such as Saccharum officinarum (sugarcane), Sorghum bicolor (sorghum) and Zea mays (maize), all use NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis. Despite high productivities, these crops fall well short of the theoretical maximum solar conversion efficiency of 6%. Understanding the basis of these inefficiencies is key for bioengineering and breeding strategies to increase the sustainable productivity of these major C4 crops. Photosynthesis is studied predominantly at steady state in saturating light. In field stands of these crops light is continually changing, and often with rapid fluctuations. Although light may change in a second, the adjustment of photosynthesis may take many minutes, leading to inefficiencies. We measured the rates of CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance of maize, sorghum and sugarcane under fluctuating light regimes. The gas exchange results were combined with a new dynamic photosynthesis model to infer the limiting factors under non‐steady‐state conditions. The dynamic photosynthesis model was developed from an existing C4 metabolic model for maize and extended to include: (i) post‐translational regulation of key photosynthetic enzymes and their temperature responses; (ii) dynamic stomatal conductance; and (iii) leaf energy balance. Testing the model outputs against measured rates of leaf CO 2 uptake and stomatal conductance in the three C4 crops indicated that Rubisco activase, the pyruvate phosphate dikinase regulatory protein and stomatal conductance are the major limitations to the efficiency of NADP‐ME‐type C4 photosynthesis during dark‐to‐high light transitions. We propose that the level of influence of these limiting factors make them targets for bioengineering the improved photosynthetic efficiency of these key crops.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

NASA/ASEE Summer Faculty Fellowship Program, 1990, Volume 1

The 1990 Johnson Space Center (JSC) NASA/American Society for Engineering Education (ASEE) Summer Faculty Fellowship Program was conducted by the University of Houston-University Park and JSC. A compilation of the final reports on the research projects are presented. The topics covered include: the Space Station; the Space Shuttle; exobiology; cell biology; culture techniques; control systems design; laser induced fluorescence; spacecraft reliability analysis; reduced gravity; biotechnology; microgravity applications; regenerative life support systems; imaging techniques; cardiovascular system; physiological effects; extravehicular mobility units; mathematical models; bioreactors; computerized simulation; microgravity simulation; and dynamic structural analysis.

Bannerot, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Neurodynamics With Spatial Self-Organization

Report presents theoretical study of dynamics of neural network organizing own response in both phase space and in position space. Postulates several mathematical models of dynamics including spatial derivatives representing local interconnections among neurons. Shows how neural responses propagate via these interconnections and how spatial pattern of neural responses formed in homogeneous biological neural network.

Zak, Michail A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Space biology initiative program definition review. Trade study 3: Hardware miniaturization versus cost

The optimum hardware miniaturization level with the lowest cost impact for space biology hardware was determined. Space biology hardware and/or components/subassemblies/assemblies which are the most likely candidates for application of miniaturization are to be defined and relative cost impacts of such miniaturization are to be analyzed. A mathematical or statistical analysis method with the capability to support development of parametric cost analysis impacts for levels of production design miniaturization are provided.

Jackson, L. Neal↗
NASA NTRS1997

Electrical signal transmission and gap junction regulation in a bone cell network: a cable model for an osteon

A cable model is formulated to estimate the spatial distribution of intracellular electric potential and current, from the cement line to the lumen of an osteon, as the frequency of the loading and the conductance of the gap junction are altered. The model predicts that the characteristic diffusion time for the spread of current along the membrane of the osteocytic processes, 0.03 sec, is nearly the same as the predicted pore pressure relaxation time in Zeng et al. (Annals of Biomedical Engineering. 1994) for the draining of the bone fluid into the osteonal canal. This approximate equality of characteristic times causes the cable to behave as a high-pass, low-pass filter cascade with a maximum in the spectral response for the intracellular potential at approximately 30 Hz. This behavior could be related to the experiments of Rubin and McLeod (Osteoporosis, Academic Press, 1996) which show that live bone appears to be selectively responsive to mechanical loading in a specific frequency range (15-30 Hz) for several species.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗
NASA NTRS2017

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗