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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities

Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.

Gul, Sadia↗
DOE OSTI2023

National‐Scale Assessment of Total Gaseous Mercury Isotopes Across the United States

Abstract With the 2011 promulgation of the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the successful negotiation by the United Nations Environment Program of the Minamata Convention, emissions of mercury (Hg) have declined in the United States. While the declines in atmospheric Hg concentrations in North America are encouraging, linking the declines to changing domestic and global source portfolios remains challenging. To address these research gaps, the U.S. Geological Survey initiated the first national‐scale effort to establish a baseline of total gaseous mercury stable isotope values at 31 sites distributed across the United States. Results indicated that unique Hg sources, such as Hg evasion from an elemental Hg contaminated site or free tropospheric intrusions in high altitude sites, were distinguishable from background atmospheric values. Minor gradients were observed across the nation, with regions of heavy industrial activity demonstrating lower δ 202 Hg, but no consistent changes in other isotopes such as Δ 199 Hg and Δ 200 Hg were observed. Furthermore, δ 202 Hg was impacted by foliar uptake and senescence but trends varied between forested regions in the northeastern and midwestern United States. These data demonstrate regional emission sources and other environmental variables can impact total gaseous Hg (TGM) isotope values, highlighting the need to characterize atmospheric Hg isotopes over larger geographical areas to evaluate changes related to national and international Hg regulations.

Tate, Michael T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

NRC Multiphysics Analysis Capability Deployment (FY2020--Part 3)

This report details progress and activities of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) on the NRC project ”Development and Modeling Support for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors.” The tasks completed for this report are as follows: First, Task 2c: Explicit modeling of pebble transient temperature response. In this simulation, the PBMR-400 reactor experiences a 20 second power ramp from 100% to 150% power. This is followed by a similar reduction in the power back to 100%. Several multiscale pebble coupling approaches are tested with one pebble per mesh element in the active core region. The results show good conservation behavior and the stability of the coupling. Next, Extended scope part 1: An assessment of the computational efficiency of the DFEM heat transfer solver shows good scalability. The DFEM solver is a factor of 4 more expensive in solution time than the FEM solver for heat transfer problems due to the increased number of degrees of freedom. Nonetheless, the DFEM approach provides the user with the flexibility to model gap heat transfer problems. Then Extended scope part 2: the GapHeatTransferInterfaceMaterial was improved to give the user increased flexibility with the modeling of heat transfer through gaps with the DFEM solver. A number of gap parameters can now be coupled both through functions and variables. Finally, Extended scope part 3: demonstration of how the gap width between hexagonal fuel cells can be calculated during a heat up transient and used in the GapHeat- TransferInterface model. A full domain DFEM model with gap expansion is coupled to a SubApp that models the thermal expansion of the base plate. The results show the expected physical behavior, although have not been fully bench- marked at this point in time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark Exercise for the Control Rod Swelling Evaluation

The VTR core has six reactivity control assemblies and three safety assemblies. The control assemblies or primary control rods are adjusted during the normal operation to balance the core reactivity and to control the reactor power. A typical control assembly radial layout is presented in Figure 1. The figure shows the swelled absorber (B 4 C) rod. Initially, helium gas fills the gap between the pin and the cladding before irradiation swelling takes place. For VTR, HT9 steel was selected as the cladding and duct material. The main neutron absorbing material used in the VTR is B 4 C. When residing in the core, the neutronics, thermophysical, and mechanical properties of the materials used in a control assembly will degrade due to accumulated neutron damage. Material degradation limits how long a control assembly can reside in the core. Many phenomena affect the control assembly lifetime, such as the loss of reactivity worth due to B 4 C depletion, the mechanical interaction of the absorber rod and the cladding due to B 4 C swelling, the helium gas buildup in the pin due to B-10 capture, etc. B 4 C swelling, which causes closure of the gap between the absorber rod and the cladding, is usually considered as the main limiting factor from past experience. An initial study was conducted at PNNL to evaluate the irradiation behavior of a VTR control assembly. The evaluation was performed using the CNRD2 code that was initially developed for the FFTF. The study also included an assessment of the VTR control assembly and focused on a 61-pin control assembly design, which is different from that used (37-pin design) in the core design study. The study conducted by PNNL was reviewed independently by ANL. A Python script referred to as the Control Assembly Evaluation Script (CAES) was developed for the independent review and additional assessment of 37-pin control assembly design. The script has focused on the assessment of the absorber rod swelling for its importance in determining the control assembly lifetime. CAES uses geometry, neutronics, materials data as input to predict the swelling of the absorber rod during its residence in the reactor core. The results from CAES showed some non-negligible differences against the PNNL results. Some of the differences can be attributed to the different interpretation of the control rod assembly dimensions. To resolve this issue, a benchmark exercise was proposed. The benchmark specification was developed by PNNL. The benchmark exercise was performed independently at PNNL and ANL using different codes/scripts (CRND2 and CAES). This memo documents the results calculated using the different codes. However, this report is limited to presenting the results obtained. Further investigation of the cause of the observed difference will be performed as part of future activities, pending continuation of the VTR program.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Liquid Alkaline Water Electrolyzers: Comparing Performance across Design, Operation, and End-of-Life Scenarios

Liquid alkaline water electrolysis (LAWE) is a demonstrated technology for hydrogen production, yet a comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of their deployment is lacking. Research leading to improvements to the core component, the electrochemical stack, along with auxiliary system materials and dynamic operation of stacks from variable electricity supply offers new data that allows for detailed modeling and evaluation. Here, we present an LCA of two facility designs based on the current state-of-the-art stack and an advanced stack with zero-gap between electrodes, and capture dynamic electricity use from solar, wind, and hybrid sources and stack recycling strategies. We present life cycle impact factors characterizing the production of 1 kg of hydrogen across 12 environmental, human health, and resource impact categories (TRACI and ReCiPe) in the contiguous United States. As expected, the source of electricity will drive impacts (e.g., 83-94% of carbon intensity); however, we find that operating using wind electricity can lower hydrogen leakage and the overall carbon intensity (1.03 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 ) relative to solar electricity (2.57 kgCO 2 e/kgH 2 ) at matched 1:1 capacity between LAWE and the electricity source. The deployment of the advanced design and stack recycling lowers impacts across all life cycle stages. We highlight opportunities to further reduce potential impacts, including the balance of plant materials and operation cycles associated with the use of variable wind and solar electricity that result in hydrogen leakage.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?

Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. Additionally, this is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. Furthermore, on a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment

Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.

economics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empirical Validation of UBEM: An Assessment of Bias in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago

Residential and commercial buildings currently account for 30% of total global final energy consumption. Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) can enable scalable investments and unlock building improvements by quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions of specific measures or packages for building-specific technologies in large geographic regions. While the sophistication of UBEM data sources and technologies have increased dramatically in the past decade, there remains a knowledge gap for empirical validation and sources of bias between building-specific energy models and measured data at varying geographic scales.As UBEM continues to develop, systemic analysis of accuracy, bias, and limitations of the resulting models is necessary to inform best practices and move toward standardization. These are characterized for the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite with an initial case study involving metered electricity consumption data from 247,188 buildings in Chicago, Illinois, USA - averaged across years 2019-2021 - compared to the following datasets: (1) the AutoBEM-generated nation-scale Model America version 2 (MAv2) data for 596,064 buildings, (2) tax assessor data for 579,829 buildings, (3) tax assessor data filled with MAv2, and (4) 102 representative dynamic archetypes. The accuracy is reported for every building type and vintage combination, along with multiple sources of bias for unique building descriptors. The AutoBEM simulation workflow produced energy consumption estimates that closely match aggregated metered electricity consumption data for different types of buildings constructed during various time periods at the city scale - with initial normalized mean bias error of 10.9%, and 1.1% after removing outliers. Contribution of statistically significant factors including building type, land use, age, and size to variance in UBEM bias is quantified.

Garg, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2026

SoK: What does it Mean to Benchmark Database Forensics?

Relational Database Management Systems are the backbone of modern enterprises and public-sector services, and are thus frequent targets of security incidents, insider threats, and thorough regulatory audits. Consequently, databases have become key sources of digital evidence, requiring investigators to reconstruct past activity from audit logs, transaction logs, and backups. Although benchmarking frameworks such as those developed by the Transaction Processing Performance Council (TPC) are widely used to evaluate database performance, they do not capture forensic requirements such as evidentiary completeness, tamper-evidence, chain of custody, or regulatory compliance under GDPR and CCPA. This survey examines the emerging domain of forensic database benchmarking. We gathered prior research on database forensics, secure logging, and tamper-evident data structures; we analyze modern forensic-ready features in commercial and open-source systems (SQL Server Ledger, Oracle Blockchain Tables, PostgreSQL pgAudit, Db2 Audit, Aurora Database Activity Streams, Oracle Real Application Security and IBM Guardium) and assess why existing benchmarks are insufficient. We propose forensic workloads, metrics, and methodologies that incorporate adversarial stressors, deleted-record recovery, and backup analysis. We also identify open research problems and call for a community-driven forensic benchmark suite. The result is an idea for evaluating not only database performance but also forensic soundness, bridging the gap between system engineering, compliance, and digital investigations.

Lenard, Ben↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of nitrogen and oxygen interstitials on niobium SRF cavity performance

Superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities are the leading technology for highly efficient particle acceleration, and their performance can be significantly enhanced through the controlled introduction of interstitial impurities into bulk niobium. Nitrogen doping has demonstrated a substantial reduction in surface resistance, which improves the quality factor of the cavities. More recently, oxygen doping has emerged as a promising alternative, demonstrating comparable reductions in surface resistance. In this study, we combine cavity measurements on 1.3 GHz niobium SRF cavities subjected to a range of nitrogen- and oxygen-based treatments with material characterizations performed on cavity cutouts processed under identical conditions. This approach allows us to quantitatively assess the contribution of each impurity to the reduction of surface resistance. We find that nitrogen is ten times more effective than oxygen in reducing surface resistance at 16 MV/m. We also observe an additive effect of O and N impurities in reducing RT. We discuss these results in the context of field-dependent nonequilibrium superconductivity, gap enhancement, and hydrogen trapping mechanisms.

Hu, H. [Chicago U.; Fermilab] (ORCID:0009000330621↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pre-Test Feasibility Study Of Reactivity Transient Testing On TRISO Fuel In The TREAT Reactor

Uranium oxycarbide (UCO)-bearing tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuels are expected to be used in numerous US commercial reactor applications within the next decade. In this work, we reviewed historical particle fuel transient experiments to identify gaps in the TRISO fuel performance transient testing. A BISON--Griffin modeling framework was then developed to conduct preliminary TRISO transient analyses and begin to address these gaps. The framework was demonstrated using limiting-case transient conditions from a prototypic high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. It was then applied to develop a matrix of experiments that could be performed in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to (1) evaluate UCO-fueled particle performance at moderate and high heat rates, (2) assess whether historical testing involving UO$_2$-fueled particles is applicable to modern UCO-fueled particles, (3) deconvolute the impacts of temperature and heat rate on particle transient response, and (4) collect the data needed for fuel performance model validation and/or further development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of MiniFuel Subcapsule Design Recommendations on Previous Experiments

MiniFuel describes the class of separate effects nuclear fuels irradiation experiments that have been conducted in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) since 2018. These experiments comprise a stack of six fuel-bearing subcapsules contained in a stainless steel target housing that is in contact with HFIR coolant on its exterior. All MiniFuel targets have a near-standardized architecture, and the primary design variables that change between experiments are the radial gap size between the subcapsule and housing and the target fill gas composition. Finite element heat transfer models are used to determine the optimum gas composition and gap sizes, and recent studies were performed to identify model parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to fuel specimen temperature predictions. That work, which is referenced herein, also recommended a set of design modifications to the subcapsule internal architecture and assembly process. These modifications are intended to reduce fuel temperature uncertainty in future experiments. In this report, the subcapsule design modifications were retroactively applied to a previously conducted MiniFuel experiment to determine how these changes affect the established safety and performance envelope of the experimental capability. These effects were determined in two steps. First, the modifications were applied to the subcapsule design without any other changes to determine their isolated effect on the predicted fuel specimen temperatures. This portion of the analysis showed that fuel temperatures were modestly reduced because the implemented changes improved heat transfer efficacy. Next, traditional MiniFuel design activities (i.e., sizing the gas gaps and determining the fill gas composition) were reperformed, and they confirmed that the original desired fuel temperatures could be achieved while remaining within established safety limits. Therefore, this report demonstrates improved performance resulting from the subcapsule modifications, which mitigate uncertainty while meeting the objectives of past experiments. An additional benefit of the design changes is reduced sensitivity of the fuel temperature to the evolving flux spectrum in HFIR, leading to more stable temperatures and enhanced utility of MiniFuel as a separate effects irradiation platform.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the carbon footprint of the integrated DBD‐plasma bi‐reforming unit via laboratory scale experiments and scaled‐up process modeling

Catalytic dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma reactor experiments were performed in a tubular glass reactor with a 2 mm gap at 550°C to facilitate the reaction kinetics of steam added dry reforming or bireforming. The best specific energy input obtained was 11.2 eV/molecule feed at CO 2 :CH 4 :H 2 O of 4.5:1:4.5 ratio and gas hour space velocity (GHSV) = 432 h −1 . This value was used to design a conceptual process and assess the environmental impact of methane steam reforming-based H 2 production 18.4 kmol/h CO 2 emission processing into H 2 :CO = 2 syngas, with an emphasis on the carbon footprint.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and demonstration of a BISON–Griffin modeling framework for the design of targeted TRISO transient experiments in the Transient Reactor Test Facility

Uranium oxycarbide (UCO)-bearing tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuels are expected to be used in numerous U.S. commercial reactor applications within the next decade. Here, in this work, we reviewed historical particle fuel transient experiments to identify gaps in TRISO fuel performance transient testing. A BISON–Griffin modeling framework was then developed to conduct preliminary TRISO transient analyses and begin to address these gaps. The framework was demonstrated using limiting-case transient conditions from a prototypic high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). It was then applied to develop a matrix of experiments that could be performed in the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to (1) evaluate UCO-fueled particle performance at moderate and high heat rates, (2) assess whether historical testing involving UO 2 -fueled particles is applicable to modern UCO-fueled particles, (3) deconvolute the impacts of temperature and heat rate on particle transient response, and (4) collect the data needed for fuel performance model validation and/or further development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The possibility of hydrogen-water demixing in Uranus, Neptune, K2-18 b and TOI-270 d

Context. The internal structures of Uranus and Neptune remain unknown. In addition, sub-Neptunes are now thought to be the most common type of exoplanets. Improving our understanding of the physical processes that govern the interiors of such planets is therefore essential. Phase separation between planetary constituents may occur, in particular, hydrogen-water immiscibility in cold, water-rich intermediate-mass planets. Aims. We assess whether hydrogen-water demixing could occur in Uranus, Neptune, K2-18 b and TOI-270 d, and investigate its effect on the planetary evolution and inferred internal structure. Methods. We couple planetary evolution models with recent ab initio calculations of the hydrogen-water phase diagram, allowing for temperature shifts to account for uncertainties in miscibility gaps. Results. We find that demixing may occur and could lead to a complete depletion of water in the outermost regions of Uranus and Neptune. Temperature offsets of up to 1100 K lead to a depleted region comprising as much as 16% of the planet’s mass, and an increase in planetary radius by nearly 20%. For K2-18 b, our models suggest that hydrogen-water demixing is ongoing and may explain the absence of water features in its JWST spectrum. A temperature offset of 500 K is required to get a complete depletion of water in the atmosphere of K2-18b. TOI-270d may also have experienced hydrogen-water demixing. When applying a similar temperature offset on the phase diagram as for K2-18 b, we find a partial depletion of water in the atmosphere of TOI-270 d, consistent with JWST’s detection of water. Conclusions. Hydrogen-water immiscibility may play a key role in shaping the structure and evolution of both Solar System giant planets like Uranus and Neptune, and cold/temperate exoplanets such as K2-18 b and TOI-270 d. Accounting for such internal processes is crucial to accurately interpret atmospheric observations from current (e.g., JWST) and upcoming (e.g., ARIEL) missions.

planets and satellites: composition↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗