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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data assimilation for burnup distribution of PWR with three-dimensional variational algorithm and artificial neutral network

In this paper, a data-assimilation method has been proposed and applied for the burnup distribution of PWR. The burnup distribution is significant to the safety and economy of the reactor, as it is essential for the fuel-reloading design and optimization. Due to the burnup distribution cannot be measured directly during the reactor operation, the numerical simulation is widely applied to determine the burnup distribution. However, there is a deviation between the numerical simulation and the actual core due to some unavoidable factors, such as component manufacturing deviation, uneven flow distribution and so on. These differences would induce the errors to the simulation values of power distributions and hence to the burnup distribution. To address this problem, a data-assimilation method for the burnup distribution has been proposed with the application of power-distribution measurements. In our research, the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) algorithm was applied for burnup-distribution calibration and the artificial neutral network (ANN) was applied to establish the relation between power distribution and corresponding burnup distribution. As engineering verification, the proposed data-assimilation method has been applied to the CNP1000 PWR operated in China. The numerical results indicated that the burnup-distribution errors can be reduced notably, as the maximum value of relative errors for power distribution can be reduced from 5.35% to 3.96%. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic Evaluation of a Coupled Nuclear Power Plant and Hydrogen Production Facility: A Case Study

This study optimized the design sizes and operation of a power-to-hydrogen-to-power integrated energy system to allow a baseload power plant to operate flexibly in the energy market. In collaboration with a utility industry partner, the system, consisting of an electrolyzer, compressors, storage tank, and fuel cell, was optimized under conditions specific to the proposed project at the site of a nuclear power plant. The Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES) maximized net present value by optimizing sizing of components and dispatch decisions. Revenues included sale of electricity, capacity payments typical of the New York Independent System Operator, and the section 45V hydrogen production tax credit of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (the tax credit was assumed to be available to legacy plants in the absence of clear guidance at present). Under default assumptions which excluded many capital expenditures, the base case optimized solution had a net present value of $\$$1.4 million over a 30 year lifetime, with a 0.365 MW fuel cell operating nearly continuously and 85% of revenues supplied by the hydrogen production tax credit (which was counted as a revenue regardless of profit, thus assuming credit monetization or offset of taxes within the larger firm was possible in all years). Beyond the base case, a sensitivity study elucidated drivers of the economics as capacity payment rate and hydrogen production tax credit rate vary. Additional sensitivity studies also extended results to variation of other, previously fixed parameters, including the fuel cell capital cost, and to imposition of further constraints. Optimization was also repeated for the default assumptions but recognizing tax credits upon use of hydrogen rather than upon its production, producing no change in the optimal solution. Most notably, capacity payments above $\$$15/kW-month drove optimal fuel cells multiple times larger than those with the default estimated capacity payment of $\$$2.5/kW-month (approaching 11 vs. 0.365 MW), and these larger fuel cells operated rarely (capacity factors of ~0.03). Furthermore, when the hydrogen production tax credit was provided for only 10 years, under the specific assumptions of this study (e.g., neither site preparation costs nor electrolyzer capital cost counted), the optimal solution avoided economic loss by ceasing system operation after the 10th year. Viewed broadly, this study demonstrated the capabilities of DISPATCHES, which can be user-adapted to serve other industrial case studies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Energy: Production and Utilization for a Green Economy [Slides]

The scope of the presentation includes: 1. Introduce high-level aspects of hydrogen fuel systems; and, 2. Showcase research addressing relevant challenges: Proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) (Subzero temperature applications and AFM characterization of catalyst layers); and, Non-precious-metal hydrogen evolution catalysts).

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Benefits Associated With Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program

The California Energy Commission's Clean Transportation Program (CTP) supports a wide range of alternative, low-carbon fuel and vehicle projects. This report improves upon the 2014 Alternative and Renewable Fuel and Vehicle Technology Program (ARFVTP) Benefits Report(the former name of the Clean Transportation Program), which focused on two components of benefit calculation: expected benefits and market transformation benefits. The "expected benefits" are defined as benefits that accrue because of the direct displacement of petroleum-based fuels or vehicle technologies. The "market transformation benefits" accrue because of CTP funding shifting the underlying market dynamics and accelerating the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles. This report documents the updated methods used in the benefits analysis in 2014 and applies them for this 2021 Clean Transportation Program Benefits Report. The project team used data collected from CTP projects funded from 2009 to the third quarter of 2021 to estimate the benefits between 2021 and 2030. CTP projects valued at $\$898.3 million$ were assessed (out of $\$1.04 billion$ funded) to estimate expected benefits of 249 million gallons per year petroleum reduction and 2.79 million metric tons per year of carbon dioxide equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction in 2030. Market transformation benefits are additive to the expected benefits and were estimated with high and low ranges for the 315 relevant projects evaluated. The market transformation benefits' GHG reductions are estimated as 2.2 million to 6.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year and the petroleum reductions as 145.3 million to 671.5 million gasoline gallon equivalents per year in 2030. Combining both benefit types, the CTP projects can make significant progress toward meeting California's long-term GHG and petroleum fuel use reduction goals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonization of heat pump dual fuel systems using a practical model predictive control: Field demonstration in a small commercial building

In the transition from fossil fuel to electrified heating, a concerning trend is emerging in certain regions of the US. Owners of buildings with gas-based systems leave them in place after adding heat pumps (HPs). Existing control solutions for these hybrid (dual fuel) systems are rudimentary and fall short of realizing the full carbon reduction potential of these systems. Model predictive control (MPC) is often regarded as the benchmark for achieving optimal control in integrated systems. However, in the case of small-medium commercial buildings (SMCBs), the control and communication infrastructure required to facilitate the implementation of such advanced controls is often lacking. This paper presents a field implementation of easy-to-deploy MPC for a dual fuel heating system consisting of HPs and a gas-fired furnace (GF) for SMCBs. The control system is deployed on an open-source middleware platform and utilizes low-cost sensor devices to be used for real SMCBs without major retrofits. Here, we demonstrated this MPC in a real office building with 5 HPs and 1 GF for 2 months. The test results showed that MPC reduced 27% of cost while completely eliminating GF usage by shifting 23% of the thermal load from occupied-peak time to non-occupied-non-peak times.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phase 1 Engagement Summary: Rural Alabama

An Alabama community coalition received technical assistance through the U.S. Department of Energy's Communities Local Energy Action Program (LEAP) to expand awareness of alternative transportation fuels through stakeholder engagement efforts. Phase 1 of the project centered on outreach, relationship-building, and the identification of community priorities. Through two workshops held in October and December 2024, the coalition engaged over 120 stakeholders - including county commissioners, school district representatives, and public and private fleet operators. These sessions included presentations from technical experts and industry partners, as well as a vehicle showcase and structured discussions to assess stakeholder needs and concerns. This report summarizes these efforts and identifies three key priority areas for Phase 2 of the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chalkboard 2 - How to Make Clean Hydrogen

Clean hydrogen is a carbon-free energy carrier that can be produced from water and sustainable energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear. Therefore, clean hydrogen is one of the best ways to not only decarbonize the energy supply system, but also address the zero-emission challenges specific to large-carbon emitting industries that are difficult to separate from fossil fuels. To help achieve the Biden Administration's goal of a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions by 2050, several tens of millions of metric tons of clean, low-cost hydrogen will be needed annually. The HydroGEN Advanced Water Splitting Materials (AWSM) Consortium was established in 2016 as part of the Energy Materials Network (EMN) under the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office to enhance the performance, improve the durability, and reduce the cost of clean hydrogen production technologies, and it is helping to advance the H2@Scale vision.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learnings From the 2022 NREL Partner Forum: Research Needs for Energy Infrastructure

During the 2022 Partner Forum at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), stakeholders and experts from across aviation came to the whiteboard to outline common goals, align interests, understand technologies, and discuss steps for safely and seamlessly decarbonizing aviation. Attendees identified challenges, strategies, and needed research on aviation fuels, infrastructure, and aircraft. Initial insights, strategies, and high-level suggestions from a focused infrastructure workshop are summarized below, including potential barriers and synergies for achieving bold decarbonization goals.

advanced air mobility↗
DOE OSTI2023

Numerical Investigation of the characteristics of pressurized biomass-oxy-combustion

As a second generation of oxy-fuel combustion technologies, pressurized oxy-combustion has a potential to improve the process efficiency and economy. With the modern decarbonization needs, biomass combustion is considered to be nearly CO2 neutral, and thus co-firing biomass with coal in an oxy-combustion process can achieve a negative CO2 balance. The size of the biomass fuel particles is a key parameter in an entrained flow combustor because large biomass particles, exceeding some threshold size, may only partially be burnt due to the restrictions on the heat transport, thereby diminishing the combustion efficiency. While such a threshold particle size has been scrutinized at an atmospheric pressure, the present study extends the analysis to elevated pressures. Specifically, two scenarios were set up, for experimental-scale and full-scale pressurized oxy-combustors, with the threshold sizes of biomass particles appearing 0.5 mm and 5 mm, respectively, without temperature gradient in biomass particles. With temperature gradient, the parametric study included the particles in the range from 0.15 mm to 5 mm. It is shown that the thermal-thin model is applicable to spherical biomass particles not exceeding 0.15 mm. The impact of the heating rate on biomass particle devolatilization was also investigated and the biomass devolatilization could happen in less than 1 second; the same amount of heat energy could induce different volatile release rates.

Li, Lei↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prototype Integrated Hydrogen Fuel Cell Powered Data Center (Cooperative Research and Development Final Report)

Data centers are the backbone of the modern economy-from the server rooms that power small- to medium-sized organizations, to the enterprise-class data centers that support American corporations, and the server farms that run cloud computing services. Rather than a traditional grid-centric data center approach, work under the CRADA will be directed towards implementing a proof-of-concept "hydrogen-based" data center utilizing hydrogen fuel cells, electrolyzers, and solar photovoltaics as key building blocks. This integrated proof-of-concept builds on preliminary work done by HPE and its partners Mercedes-Benz Research & Development North America, Inc. (MBRDNA) and Power Innovations, to dramatically simplify the electrical infrastructure in the data center, leverage the latest automotive-scale hydrogen fuel cell technologies, and tightly couple renewably generated DC power directly to the Information Technology (IT). While some limited aspects of this concept have been demonstrated previously the entire integrated proof of concept proposed here has not yet been realized.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Second Target Station Project: STS Cross-Directorate Workshop on Hydrogen Fuel

Hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen produced through electrolysis using renewable energy, is poised to play a critical role in decarbonizing the global economy. Its ability to address the intermittency of renewable energy sources and decarbonize hard-to-electrify sectors positions it as a vital component of a sustainable energy future. Interest in hydrogen as a clean energy carrier is in a decade of unprecedented growth, with dozens of countries having released national hydrogen strategies contributing to a global hydrogen economy. In 2021, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Hydrogen Shot, the first of the Energy Earthshot Initiatives, which aims to lower the cost of clean hydrogen to $\$$1/kg by 2031. This initiative was followed by a considerable increase in funding for hydrogen technologies through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), with $\$$18 billion recently announced for regional demonstration projects (Hydrogen Hubs) and another $\$$11.5 billion aimed at research and development of electrolyzers, fuel cells, manufacturing, and recycling. The 2023 U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap identifies the cost of clean hydrogen as a critical challenge for achieving economic scale. This includes the cost of hydrogen production by electrolysis, delivery and dispensing, onboard storage, and end-use technologies like fuel cells. Fundamental research and development into catalysts, component architectures, and material durability are critical to lower the costs of these vital technologies aimed at achieving a net-zero carbon emission economy by 2050.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Filling the cellulosic bio-economy gap by utilizing a wedge approach combined with stakeholder collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. Here, the role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A US perspective on closing the carbon cycle to defossilize difficult-to-electrify segments of our economy

Electrification to reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions is essential to mitigate climate change. However, a substantial portion of our manufacturing and transportation infrastructure will be difficult to electrify and/or will continue to use carbon as a key component, including areas in aviation, heavy-duty and marine transportation, and the chemical industry. In this Roadmap, we explore how multidisciplinary approaches will enable us to close the carbon cycle and create a circular economy by defossilizing these difficult-to-electrify areas and those that will continue to need carbon. Here, we discuss two approaches for this: developing carbon alternatives and improving our ability to reuse carbon, enabled by separations. Furthermore, we posit that co-design and use-driven fundamental science are essential to reach aggressive greenhouse gas reduction targets.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Permitting Commercial Geologic CO 2 Storage Projects: Lessons Learned

Conference paper presented at 48th International Technical Conference on Clean Energy (Clearwater Clean Energy Conference), Clearwater, Florida, June 16–19, 2024. Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) deployment can be a catalyst to drive investment that will extend the operational life of certain facilities and maximize oil recovery, thereby providing and retaining high-paying energy jobs that, in turn, sustain state and local economies.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2016

Liquid Oxygen/Liquid Methane Integrated Power and Propulsion

The proposed paper will cover ongoing work at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC) on integrated power and propulsion for advanced human exploration. Specifically, it will present findings of the integrated design, testing, and operational challenges of a liquid oxygen / liquid methane (LOx/LCH4) propulsion brassboard and Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) system. Human-Mars architectures point to an oxygen-methane economy utilizing common commodities, scavenged from the planetary atmosphere and soil via In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), and common commodities across sub-systems. Due to the enormous mass gear-ratio required for human exploration beyond low-earth orbit, (for every 1 kg of payload landed on Mars, 226 kg will be required on Earth) increasing commonality between spacecraft subsystems such as power and propulsion can result in tremendous launch mass and volume savings. Historically, propulsion and fuel cell power subsystems have had little interaction outside of the generation (fuel cell) and consumption (propulsion) of electrical power. This was largely due to a mismatch in preferred commodities (hypergolics for propulsion; oxygen & hydrogen for fuel cells). Although this stove-piped approach benefits from simplicity in the design process, it means each subsystem has its own tanks, pressurization system, fluid feed system, etc. increasing overall spacecraft mass and volume. A liquid oxygen / liquid methane commodities architecture across propulsion and power subsystems would enable the use of common tankage and associated pressurization and commodity delivery hardware for both. Furthermore, a spacecraft utilizing integrated power and propulsion could use propellant residuals - propellant which could not be expelled from the tank near depletion due to hydrodynamic considerations caused by large flow demands of a rocket engine - to generate power after all propulsive maneuvers are complete thus utilizing previously wasted mass. Such is the case for human and robotic planetary landers. Although many potential benefits through integrated power & propulsion exist, integrated operations have yet to be successfully demonstrated and many challenges have already been identified the most obvious of which is the large temperature gradient. SOFC chemistry is exothermic with operating temperatures in excess of 1,000 K; however, any shared commodities will be undoubtedly stored at cryogenic temperatures (90-112 K) for mass efficiency reasons. Spacecraft packaging will drive these two subsystems in close proximity thus heat leak into the commodity tankage must be minimized and/or mitigated. Furthermore, commodities must be gasified prior to consumption by the SOFC. Excess heat generated by the SOFC could be used to perform this phase change; however, this has yet to be demonstrated. A further identified challenge is the ability of the SOFC to handle the sudden power spikes created by the propulsion system. A power accumulator (battery) will likely be necessary to handle these sudden demands while the SOFC thermally adjusts. JSC's current SOFC test system consists of a 1 kW fuel cell designed by Delphi. The fuel cell is currently undergoing characterization testing at the NASA JSC Energy Systems Test Area (ESTA) after which a Steam Methane Reformer (SMR) will be integrated and the combined system tested in closed-loop. The propulsion brassboard is approximately the size of what could be flown on a sounding rocket. It consists of one 100 lbf thrust "main" engine developed for NASA by Aerojet and two 10 lbf thrusters to simulate a reaction control system developed at NASA JSC. This system is also under development and initial testing at ESTA. After initial testing, combined testing will occur which will provide data on the fuel cell's ability to sufficiently handle the power spikes created by the propulsion system. These two systems will also be modeled using General-Use Nodal Network Solver (GUNNS) software. Once anchored with test data, this model will be used to extrapolate onto other firing profiles and used to size the power accumulator.

Banker, Brian↗
DOE OSTI2022

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adoption of biofuels for marine shipping decarbonization: A long‐term price and scalability assessment

Abstract This study assessed the long‐term annual biofuel production capacity potential and price in the United States and shed light on the prospect of biofuel adoption for marine propulsion. A linear programming model was developed to assist the projections and provide insightful analyses. The projected long‐term (2040) maximum annual capacity of biofuels in the United States is 245 million metric tons (Mt) or 65 billion gallons of heavy fuel oil gallon equivalent (HFOGE) when based on the median feedstock availability. Between 2022 (near‐term) and 2040, the potential biofuel capacity increases by over 40%, attributed to increased feedstock availability. At a price range up to $500/t, biodiesel is the main product, and the annual capacity (12 Mt) is limited to feedstock availability constraints. Biodiesel and corn ethanol are the main biofuels at a price range up to $750/t. At a higher price point (above $750/t), the biofuel types and annual capacities increase substantially (218 Mt per year). Biofuels above this price include gasoline‐, jet‐, and diesel‐range blendstocks, as well as bio‐methanol, bio‐propane, and biogas. This study concludes that the US domestic feedstock availability coupled with advanced conversion technologies can produce substantial amounts of biofuels to achieve a critical mass and be impactful as alternative marine fuels. There is also a need to improve the biofuel price for marine shipping adoption. Policies and economic incentives that provide temporary financial support would help facilitate maritime biofuel adoption. © 2022 Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining published by Society of Industrial Chemistry and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗