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NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

NASA NTRS1995

Dominant takeover regimes for genetic algorithms

The genetic algorithm (GA) is a machine-based optimization routine which connects evolutionary learning to natural genetic laws. The present work addresses the problem of obtaining the dominant takeover regimes in the GA dynamics. Estimated GA run times are computed for slow and fast convergence in the limits of high and low fitness ratios. Using Euler's device for obtaining partial sums in closed forms, the result relaxes the previously held requirements for long time limits. Analytical solution reveal that appropriately accelerated regimes can mark the ascendancy of the most fit solution. In virtually all cases, the weak (logarithmic) dependence of convergence time on problem size demonstrates the potential for the GA to solve large N-P complete problems.

Noever, David↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Deep Learning Approach to Fast Radiative Transfer

Due to the sheer volume of data, leveraging satellite instrument observations effectively in a data assimilation context for numerical weather prediction or for remote sensing requires a radiative transfer model as an observation operator that is both fast and accurate at the same time. Physics-based line-by-line radiative transfer (RT) models fulfil the requirement for accuracy, but are too slow and too costly in computational terms for operational applications. Therefore, fast methods were developed to be able to perform fast RT calculations using techniques such as spectral sampling or pre-computed look-up tables. The operational fast models currently calculate the absorption and scattering coefficients from the pre-computed regression coefficients and atmospheric state and cloud profiles. As a novel solution to this problem, this work investigates a deep learning approach to replace the regression coefficients in the fast RT models. A selection of hidden-layer neural network configurations is trained against atmospheric transmittance profile data computed by an accurate line-by-line model and their performance is evaluated and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

Machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2023

Measurement Report :Emission Factors of NH3 and NHx for Wildfires and Agricultural Fires in the United States

During the 2019 Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) study, the NASA DC-8 carried out in situ chemical measurements in smoke plumes emitted from wildfires and agricultural fires in the contiguous United States. The DC-8 payload included a modified proton-transfer-reaction time-of-flight mass spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) for the fast measurement of gaseous ammonia (NH 3 ) and a high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) for the fast measurement of submicron particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ). We herein report data collected in smoke plumes emitted from 6 wildfires in the Western United States, 2 prescribed grassland fires in the Central United States, 1 prescribed forest fire in the Southern United States, and 66 small agricultural fires in the Southeastern United States. Smoke plumes contained double to triple digit ppb levels of NH 3 . In the wildfire plumes, a significant fraction of NH 3 had already been converted to NH 4 + at the time of sampling (≥2 h after emission). Substantial amounts of NH 4 + were also detected in freshly emitted smoke from corn and rice field fires. We herein present a comprehensive set of emission factors of NH 3 and NH x , with NH x = NH 3 + NH 4 + . Average NH 3 and NH x emission factors for wildfires in the Western United States were 1.86±0.75 g kg −1 and 2.47±0.80 g kg −1 of fuel burned, respectively. Average NH 3 and NH x emission factors for agricultural fires in the Southeastern United States were 0.89±0.58 and 1.74±0.92 g kg −1 , respectively. Our data show no clear inverse correlation between modified combustion efficiency (MCE) and NH 3 emissions. The observed NH 3 emissions were significantly higher than measured in previous laboratory experiments in the FIREX FireLab 2016 study.

Laura Tomsche↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimal Control Modification Adaptive Law for Time-Scale Separated Systems

Recently a new optimal control modification has been introduced that can achieve robust adaptation with a large adaptive gain without incurring high-frequency oscillations as with the standard model-reference adaptive control. This modification is based on an optimal control formulation to minimize the L2 norm of the tracking error. The optimal control modification adaptive law results in a stable adaptation in the presence of a large adaptive gain. This study examines the optimal control modification adaptive law in the context of a system with a time scale separation resulting from a fast plant with a slow actuator. A singular perturbation analysis is performed to derive a modification to the adaptive law by transforming the original system into a reduced-order system in slow time. A model matching conditions in the transformed time coordinate results in an increase in the actuator command that effectively compensate for the slow actuator dynamics. Simulations demonstrate effectiveness of the method.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Optimal Control Modification for Robust Adaptation of Singularly Perturbed Systems with Slow Actuators

Recently a new optimal control modification has been introduced that can achieve robust adaptation with a large adaptive gain without incurring high-frequency oscillations as with the standard model-reference adaptive control. This modification is based on an optimal control formulation to minimize the L2 norm of the tracking error. The optimal control modification adaptive law results in a stable adaptation in the presence of a large adaptive gain. This study examines the optimal control modification adaptive law in the context of a system with a time scale separation resulting from a fast plant with a slow actuator. A singular perturbation analysis is performed to derive a modification to the adaptive law by transforming the original system into a reduced-order system in slow time. The model matching conditions in the transformed time coordinate results in increase in the feedback gain and modification of the adaptive law.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Control Modification for Time-Scale Separated Systems

Adaptive Control↗

NASA NTRS2000

Determination of left ventricular volume, ejection fraction, and myocardial mass by real-time three-dimensional echocardiography

Reconstructed three-dimensional (3-D) echocardiography is an accurate and reproducible method of assessing left ventricular (LV) functions. However, it has limitations for clinical study due to the requirement of complex computer and echocardiographic analysis systems, electrocardiographic/respiratory gating, and prolonged imaging times. Real-time 3-D echocardiography has a major advantage of conveniently visualizing the entire cardiac anatomy in three dimensions and of potentially accurately quantifying LV volumes, ejection fractions, and myocardial mass in patients even in the presence of an LV aneurysm. Although the image quality of the current real-time 3-D echocardiographic methods is not optimal, its widespread clinical application is possible because of the convenient and fast image acquisition. We review real-time 3-D echocardiographic image acquisition and quantitative analysis for the evaluation of LV function and LV mass.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NASA NTRS1999

"Ultra"-Fast Fracture Strength of Advanced Structural Ceramic Materials Studied at Elevated Temperatures

The accurate determination of inert strength is important in reliable life prediction of structural ceramic components. At ambient temperature, the inert strength of a brittle material is typically regarded as free of the effects of slow crack growth due to stress corrosion. Therefore, the inert strength can be determined either by eliminating active species, especially moisture, with an appropriate inert medium, or by using a very high test rate. However, at elevated temperatures, the concept or definition of the inert strength of brittle ceramic materials is not clear, since temperature itself is a degrading environment, resulting in strength degradation through slow crack growth and/or creep. Since the mechanism to control strength is rate-dependent viscous flow, the only conceivable way to determine the inert strength at elevated temperatures is to utilize a very fast test rate that either minimizes the time for or eliminates slow crack growth. Few experimental studies have measured the elevated-temperature, inert (or "ultra"-fast fracture) strength of advanced ceramics. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, an experimental study was initiated to better understand the "ultra"-fast fracture strength behavior of advanced ceramics at elevated temperatures. Fourteen advanced ceramics - one alumina, eleven silicon nitrides, and two silicon carbides - have been tested using constant stress-rate (dynamic fatigue) testing in flexure with a series of stress rates including the "ultra"-fast stress rate of 33 000 MPa/sec with digitally controlled test frames. The results for these 14 advanced ceramics indicate that, notwithstanding possible changes in flaw populations as well as flaw configurations because of elevated temperatures, the strength at 33 000 MPa/sec approached the room-temperature strength or reached a higher value than that determined at the conventional test rate of 30 MPa/sec. On the basis of the experimental data, it can be stated that the elevated-temperature, inert strength of an advanced ceramic material can be defined as the strength where no slow crack growth takes place at the temperature.

Choi, Sung R.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Pseudo Aircraft Systems - A multi-aircraft simulation system for air traffic control research

Pseudo Aircraft Systems (PAS) is a computerized flight dynamics and piloting system designed to provide a high fidelity multi-aircraft real-time simulation environment to support Air Traffic Control research. PAS is composed of three major software components that run on a network of computer workstations. Functionality is distributed among these components to allow the system to execute fast enough to support real-time operation. PAS workstations are linked by an Ethernet Local Area Network, and standard UNIX socket protocol is used for data transfer. Each component of PAS is controlled and operated using a custom designed Graphical User Interface. Each of these is composed of multiple windows, and many of the windows and sub-windows are used in several of the components. Aircraft models and piloting logic are sophisticated and realistic and provide complex maneuvering and navigational capabilities. PAS will continually be enhanced with new features and improved capabilities to support ongoing and future Air Traffic Control system development.

Weske, Reid A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

External and Internal Reconnection in Two Filament-Carrying Magnetic Cavity Solar Eruptions

We observe two near-limb solar filament eruptions. one of 2000 February 26 and the other of 2002 January 4. For both we use 195 A Fe XII images from the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI). both of which are on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. (SOHO). For the earlier event we also use soft X-ray telescope (SXT). hard X-ray telescope (HXT). and Bragg Crystal Spectrometer (BCS) data from the Yohkoh satellite. and hard X-ray data from the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. (CGRO). Both events occur in quadrupolar magnetic regions. and both have coronal features that we infer belong to the same magnetic cavity structures as the filaments. In both cases. the cavity and filament first rise slowly at approx. 10 km/s prior to eruption and then accelerate to approx. 100 km/s during the eruption. although the slow-rise movement for the higher altitude cavity elements is clearer in the later event. We estimate that both filaments and both cavities contain masses of approx. 10(exp14) - 1 0(exp 15) and approx. l0(exp 15) - l0(exp 16) g. respectively. We consider whether two specific magnetic reconnection-based models for eruption onset. the "tether cutting" and the "breakout" models. are consistent with our observations. In the earlier event, soft X-rays from SXT show an intensity increase during the 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins. which is consistent with tether- cutting-model predictions. Substantial hard X-ray. however. do not occur until after fast eruption is underway. and so this is a constraint the tether-cutting model must satisfy. During the same 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins, there are brightenings and topological changes in the corona indicative of high-altitude reconnection early in the eruption. and this is consistent with breakout predictions. In both eruptions. the state of the overlying loops at the time of onset of the fast-rise phase of the corresponding filament can be compared with expectations from the breakout model. thereby setting constraints that the breakout model must meet. Our findings are consistent with both runaway tether-cutting-type reconnection and fast breakout-type reconnection. occurring early in the fast phase of the February eruption and with both types of reconnection being important in unleashing the explosion, but we are not able to say which. if either, type of reconnection actually triggered the fast phase. In any case. we have found specific constraints that either model. or any other model. must satisfy if correct.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

External and Internal Reconnection in Two Filament-Carrying Magnetic-Cavity Solar Eruptions

We observe two near-limb solar filament eruptions, one of 2000 February 26 and the other of 2002 January 4. For both we use 195 Angstroms, Fe XII images from the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), both of which are on the Solar arid Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). For the earlier event we also use soft X-ray telescope (SXT), hard X-ray telescope (HXT), and Bragg Crystal Spectrometer (BCS) data from the Yohkoh satellite, and hard X-ray data from the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observation, (CGRO). Both events occur in quadrupolar magnetic regions, and both have coronal features that we infer belong to the same magnetic cavity structures as the filaments. In both cases, the cavity and filament first rise slowly at approximately 10 kilometers per second prior to eruption and then accelerate to approximately 100 kilometers per second during the eruption, although the slow-rise movement for the higher altitude cavity elements is clearer in the later event. We estimate that both filaments and both cavities contain masses of approximately 10(exp 14)-10(exp 15) and approximately 10(exp 15)-10(exp 16)g, respectively. We consider whether two specific magnetic reconnection-based models for eruption onset, the tether cutting and the breakout models, are consistent with our observations. In the earlier event, soft X-rays from SXT show an intensity increase during the 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins, which is consistent with tether-cutting-model predictions. Substantial hard X-rays, however, do not occur until after fast eruption is underway, and so this is a constraint the tether-cutting model must satisfy. During the same 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins, there are brightenings and topological changes in the corona indicative of high-altitude reconnection early in the eruption, and this is consistent with breakout predictions. In both eruptions, the state of the overlying loops at the time of onset of the fast-rise phase of the corresponding filament can be compared with expectations from the breakout model, thereby setting constraints that the breakout model must meet. Our findings are consistent with both runaway tether-cutting-type reconnection and fast breakout-type reconnection, occurring early in the fast phase of the February eruption and with both types of reconnection being important in unleashing the explosion, but we are not able to say which, if either, type of reconnection actually triggered the fast phase. In any case, we have found specific constraints that either model, or any other model, must satisfy if correct.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

External and Internal Reconnection in Two Filament-Carrying Magnetic-Cavity Solar Eruptions

We observe two near-limb solar filament eruptions, one of 2000 February 26 and the other of 2002 January 4. For both we use 195 A Fe XII images from the Extreme-Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) and magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), both of which are on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). For the earlier event we also use soft X-ray telescope (SXT), hard X-ray telescope (HXT), and Bragg Crystal Spectrometer (BCS) data from the Yohkoh satellite, and hard X-ray data from the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ra.v Observatory (CGRO). Both events occur in quadrupolar magnetic regions, and both have coronal features that we infer belong to the same magnetic cavity structures as the filaments. In both cases, the cavity and filament first rise slowly at approx.10 km/s prior to eruption and then accelerate to approx.100 km/s during the eruption, although the slow-rise movement for the higher altitude cavity elements is clearer in the later event. We estimate that both filaments and both cavities contain masses of approx.10(exp 14)-10(exp 15) and approx.10(exp 15)-10(exp 16) g, respectively. We consider whether two specific magnetic reconnection-based models for eruption onset, the "tether cutting" and the "breakout" models, are consistent with our observations. In the earlier event, soft X-rays from SXT show an intensity increase during the 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins, which is consistent with tether- cutting-model predictions. Substantial hard X-rays, however, do not occur until after fast eruption is underway, and so this is a constraint the tether-cutting model must satisfy. During the same 12 minute interval over which fast eruption begins, there are brightenings and topological changes in the corona indicative of high-altitude reconnection early in the eruption, and this is consistent with breakout predictions. In both eruptions, the state of the overlying loops at the time of onset of the fast-rise phase of the corresponding filament can be compared with expectations from the breakout model, thereby setting constraints that the breakout model must meet. Our findings are consistent with both runaway tether-cutting-type reconnection and fast breakout-type reconnection, occurring early in the fast phase of the February eruption and with both types of reconnection being important in unleashing the explosion, but we are not able to say which, if either, type of reconnection actually triggered the fast phase. In any case, we have found specific constraints that either model, or any other model, must satisfy if correct.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

Nguyen, Nhan T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Investigation of Allan variance for determining noise spectral forms with application to microwave radiometry

An investigation of the Allan variance method as a possible means for characterizing fluctuations in radiometric noise diodes has been performed. The goal is to separate fluctuation components into white noise, flicker noise, and random-walk noise. The primary means is by discrete-time processing, and the study focused primarily on the digital processes involved. Noise satisfying the requirements was generated by direct convolution, fast Fourier transformation (FFT) processing in the time domain, and FFT processing in the frequency domain. Some of the numerous results obtained are presented along with the programs used in the study.

Stanley, William D.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Efficient Probabilistic Diagnostics for Electrical Power Systems

We consider in this work the probabilistic approach to model-based diagnosis when applied to electrical power systems (EPSs). Our probabilistic approach is formally well-founded, as it based on Bayesian networks and arithmetic circuits. We investigate the diagnostic task known as fault isolation, and pay special attention to meeting two of the main challenges . model development and real-time reasoning . often associated with real-world application of model-based diagnosis technologies. To address the challenge of model development, we develop a systematic approach to representing electrical power systems as Bayesian networks, supported by an easy-to-use speci.cation language. To address the real-time reasoning challenge, we compile Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits. Arithmetic circuit evaluation supports real-time diagnosis by being predictable and fast. In essence, we introduce a high-level EPS speci.cation language from which Bayesian networks that can diagnose multiple simultaneous failures are auto-generated, and we illustrate the feasibility of using arithmetic circuits, compiled from Bayesian networks, for real-time diagnosis on real-world EPSs of interest to NASA. The experimental system is a real-world EPS, namely the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) located at the NASA Ames Research Center. In experiments with the ADAPT Bayesian network, which currently contains 503 discrete nodes and 579 edges, we .nd high diagnostic accuracy in scenarios where one to three faults, both in components and sensors, were inserted. The time taken to compute the most probable explanation using arithmetic circuits has a small mean of 0.2625 milliseconds and standard deviation of 0.2028 milliseconds. In experiments with data from ADAPT we also show that arithmetic circuit evaluation substantially outperforms joint tree propagation and variable elimination, two alternative algorithms for diagnosis using Bayesian network inference.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Nonlogarithmic magnetization relaxation at the initial time intervals and magnetic field dependence of the flux creep rate in Bi2Sr2Ca(sub I)Cu2Ox single crystals

At the initial time intervals, preceding the thermally activated flux creep regime, fast nonlogarithmic relaxation is found. The fully magnetic moment Pm(t) relaxation curve is shown. The magnetic measurements were made using SQUID-magnetometer. Two different relaxation regimes exist. The nonlogarithmic relaxation for the initial time intervals may be related to the viscous Abrikosov vortices flow with j is greater than j(sub c) for high enough temperature T and magnetic field induction B. This assumption correlates with Pm(t) measurements. The characteristic time t(sub O) separating two different relaxation regimes decreases as temperature and magnetic field are lowered. The logarithmic magnetization relaxation curves Pm(t) for fixed temperature and different external magnetic field inductions B are given. The relaxation rate dependence on magnetic field, R(B) = dPm(B, T sub O)/d(1nt) has a sharp maximum which is similar to that found for R(T) temperature dependences. The maximum shifts to lower fields as temperature goes up. The observed sharp maximum is related to a topological transition in shielding critical current distribution and, consequently, in Abrikosov vortices density. The nonlogarithmic magnetization relaxation for the initial time intervals is found. This fast relaxation has almost an exponentional character. The sharp relaxation rate R(B) maximum is observed. This maximum corresponds to a topological transition in Abrikosov vortices distribution.

Moshchalcov, V. V.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Novel method to assess gastric emptying in humans: the Pellet Gastric Emptying Test

To further validate the Pellet Gastric Emptying Test (PGET) as a marker of gastric emptying, a randomized, four-way crossover study was conducted with 12 healthy subjects. The study consisted of oral co-administration of enteric coated caffeine (CAFF) and acetaminophen (APAP) pellets in four treatment phases: Same Size (100 kcal), Fasted, Small Liquid Meal (100 kcal), and Standard Meal (847 kcal). The time of first appearance of measurable drug marker in plasma, t(initial), was taken as the emptying time for the markers. Co-administration of same size enteric coated pellets of CAFF and APAP (0.7 mm in diameter) revealed no statistically significant differences in t(initial) values indicating that emptying was dependent only on size and not on chemical make-up of the pellets. Co-administration of different size pellets indicated that the smaller 0.7-mm diameter (CAFF) pellets were emptied and absorbed significantly earlier than the larger 3.6-mm diameter (APAP) pellets with both the Small Liquid Meal (by 35 min) and the Standard Meal (by 33 min) (P<0.05). The differences in emptying of the pellets were not significant in the Fasted Phase. The results suggest that the pellet gastric emptying test could prove useful in monitoring changes in transit times in the fasted and fed states and their impact on drug absorption.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗