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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phase Stability of Yttrium Titanium Oxide

This proposed study aims at elevating Idaho National Laboratory (INL)’s portfolio in nuclear material research on two major fronts: 1) expanding INL’s material characterization capabilities to provide holistic microstructural and microchemical characterization ranging from atomic scale to millimeter scale, and 2) filling the knowledge gap on the effect of microstructural evolution on material phase stability at extreme conditions resembling those inside nuclear reactors, using Yttrium-Titanium-Oxide (YTO) as a model material. Previous research indicated the kinetics of phase transition of YTO materials varies between bulk samples and powder samples, suggesting that microstructural characteristics such as defect, micro-strain, and crystallite size could play a significant role in phase transition. The effect of crystallite size on the thermodynamics of phase transition has been well documented for other ceramic materials at nanometer crystallite size, with potential impacts from surface and strain energy and defects. In this proposed study, we will perform microstructural (micro-strain, crystallite size, defects, phase) and microchemical (elemental mapping) analyses through in-situ high temperature measurements using X-ray diffraction (XRD; at millimeter scale for powder and bulk samples) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM, at nanometer scale and atomic scale for powder and thin foil samples), to provide a comprehensive view of the effect of microstructural and microchemical evolution on phase transition and phase stability of YTO materials. These findings will also establish a roadmap and provide new insights on the phase stability of other materials that are critical to nuclear energy and other renewable energy infrastructure. Besides advancing our understanding of this fundamental material science question, this project will also enable the development of state-of-the-art material characterization capabilities at INL/MFC for microstructural and microchemical analysis at high temperature conditions. The new collaboration between the High-Resolution Materials Characterization group at INL and the Electron Microscopy group at the University of Florida (UF) in this project will open the possibilities for more fruitful and synergetic cutting-edge nuclear material research in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

GA-NIFS and EIGER: A merging quasar host at z = 7 with an overmassive black hole

The James Webb Space Telescope is revolutionising our ability to understand the host galaxies and local environments of high-z quasars. Here we obtain a comprehensive understanding of the host galaxy of the z = 7.08 quasar J1120+0641 by combining NIRSpec integral field spectroscopy with NIRCam photometry of the host continuum emission. Our emission-line maps reveal that this quasar host is undergoing a merger with a bright companion galaxy. The quasar host and the companion have similar dynamical masses of ∼10 10 M ⊙ , suggesting that this is a major galaxy interaction. Through detailed quasar subtraction and SED fitting using the NIRCam data, we obtained an estimate of the host stellar mass of M ∗ = (3.0 −1.4 +2.5 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ , with M ∗ = (2.7 −0.5 +0.5 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ for the companion galaxy. Using the Hβ Balmer line, we estimated a virial black hole mass of M BH = (1.9 −1.1 +2.9 ) × 109 M ⊙ . Thus, J1120+0641 has an extreme black hole–stellar mass ratio of M BH /M ∗ = 0.63 −0.31 +0.54 , which is ∼3 dex larger than expected by the local scaling relations between black hole and stellar mass. J1120+0641 is powered by an overmassive black hole with the highest reported black hole–stellar mass ratio in a quasar host that is currently undergoing a major merger. These new insights highlight the power of JWST for measuring and understanding these extreme first quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive complex nanocomposite alloys for burning plasma-material interface tunability (Final Report)

The focus of this program is discovery and development of novel self-healing and adaptive materials for the PMI (plasma-material interface) envisioned for future plasma-burning extreme environments in thermonuclear fusion reactors that can provide enhanced radiation-tolerance or resistance. This program was conceived and stems from the PI’s DOE Early Career Award work on harnessing nanotechnology and mesoscale materials design in refractory metals to address gaps in PMI research. These gaps pertain to the lack of understanding of multi-scale interactions at the plasma-material interface and the development of novel material interfaces that can be designed to adapt to extreme fusion reactor conditions. The final report is separated into two primary sections: The first section consists of the program’s first two years (FY16-FY17) performance period. The second section consists of FY18 to FY19 period, where the FY19 period was a supplemental addition to support the completion of a PhD thesis and continuation of another. This work consists of an excellent team consisting of a co-PI, one postdoctoral researcher, two graduate students, two undergraduate students and collaborators both domestic and abroad.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-Cost Screening of Algae for Extreme Tolerance to pH, Temperature, Salinity, and Light

AbstractBioprospecting algae strains with tolerance to extreme conditions such as pH, temperature, salinity, and light is crucial for advancing biotechnology and environmental applications. However, traditional screening methods often involve significant costs and labor, restricting their accessibility and practical use. In this study, we developed and validated low-cost, high-throughput screening techniques, predominantly employing agar plates and liquid culture assays, to effectively differentiate tolerance levels among various algae strains. The methodologies were optimized using the model microalgaChlamydomonas reinhardtiiand its closely related speciesChlamydomonas incertaand the recently discovered extremophilicChlamydomonas pacifica. We systematically evaluated the algae for tolerance to extremes by establishing precise gradients of pH (acidic to alkaline conditions), salinity (0 to 5 M NaCl), temperature (34–42°C), and light intensity (40 to 2977 μE·m⁻²·s⁻¹). Our results demonstrated that these cost-effective, agar plate-based methods effectively distinguished algae strains exhibiting superior tolerance to extreme environmental conditions. These screening techniques not only provided clear differentiation among the closely related strains but also delivered reproducible outcomes suitable for scaling up to larger bioprospecting efforts. Furthermore, the affordability and simplicity of these methods facilitate their implementation in resource-limited laboratories, thereby broadening participation in algae bioprospecting endeavors. This study highlights the potential of low-cost, accessible screening techniques to significantly enhance the discovery and characterization of algal strains with extreme traits. Ultimately, these methods support the development of robust algae-based resources, driving innovation in diverse industrial processes and environmental solutions.Graphical Abstract

Saucedo, Barbara (ORCID:0009000008860839)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Record-Breaking Precipitation in Indonesia's Capital of Jakarta in Early January 2020 Linked to the Northerly Surge, Equatorial Waves, and MJO

A rare record-breaking extreme rainfall event, the highest amount recorded since 1866, hit Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in early January 2020. The torrential rainfall was mainly caused by an active cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS) that occurred concurrently with equatorial waves and Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). A strong and persistent low-level northerly wind and moisture transport induced by CENS created favorable atmospheric conditions for the formation of deep convection and heavy rainfall over Jakarta. The concurrent occurrences of convectively active phases of equatorial waves (mainly Kelvin, TD-type, and eastward propagating inertia-gravity waves) and MJO during the event further supported the development of heavy rainfall by increasing low-level moisture flux convergence, whereas equatorial Rossby waves contributed indirectly to the increased moisture transport by amplifying cross-equatorial meridional flows toward Jakarta. Together, these large-scale dynamical forcing factors provided a conducive convective environment for the development of mesoscale convective systems and, hence, extreme rainfall over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

In-Situ Transmission Electron Microscopy Study of the Evolution of Extended Defects in Oxide Nuclear Fuels

In-situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with simulated extreme environments is an effective tool for understanding and tracking microstructural changes down to the atomic scale. The objective of this research is to study the effect of temperature on the evolution of extended defects in ThO2 and UO2. Here, we present in-situ TEM isochronal thermal annealing experiments using a micro-electro-mechanical-system (MEMS)-based heating holder. ThO2 and UO2 single crystal specimens were grown inside an inert silver ampoule using hydrothermal synthesis. Both samples were irradiated using 2 MeV protons at 600oC up to 0.1 dpa at Texas A&M University’s Accelerator Laboratory. Fig. 1a shows a weak-beam dark field TEM image of ThO2 after irradiation, indicating the presence of faulted 1/3 <111> type dislocation loops. This presentation will discuss the effect of annealing temperature (600oC, 800oC, 1000oC, 1100oC, etc.) on dislocation loop density, size and distribution, loop nature (interstitial/vacancies) and Burgers vector, as well as the formation of voids in both ThO2 and UO2. This work will also discuss the interaction between defects during annealing. The in-situ TEM annealing cycle is shown in Fig 1b. This research significantly improves the understanding of defect behavior in oxide nuclear fuels with temperature and will aid computational modeling efforts. This work was supported as part of the Center for Thermal Energy Transport under Irradiation (TETI) Energy Frontier Research Center, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spinbox: tools for many-body quantum systems in a Monte Carlo context

Spinbox is a piece of software that facilitates quantum mechanical calculations relevant to Monte Carlo simulation of atomic nuclei. At the front lines of research on the nuclear many-body problem are a large number of supercomputer-scale simulation codes. These codes produce valuable results but can be hard to understand, especially for those without intimate knowledge of the relevant theoretical methods. Thus, tools that fill pedagogical roles are extremely valuable. Spinbox makes it easy for one to replicate and analyze the computational processes relevant to a Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation that may be difficult to understand/debug/analyze due to the scale of the corresponding simulation software. Spinbox is written in Python using other state-of-the-art Python modules for numerical calculations. While a number of Python libraries exist that are suited to general quantum many-body calculations, the motivation of Spinbox is quite particular. In Diffusion Monte Carlo methods (DMC, GFMC, AFDMC), the central calculation is the imaginary-time propagation of individual samples of the many-body wavefunction. Although quantum wavefunctions generally must be described by a probability distribution over a basis, DMC imbues particles (within one sample) with classical spatial coordinates. This method is unusual, so other Python packages are typically not set up to do this easily. Furthermore, the software has built-in options for nuclear systems assuming isospin symmetry, which can be set up with other libraries but is a nontrivial process to do so. Features: - numerical representation of samples of the many-body wavefunctions, including tensor-product states (used in AFDMC) - numerical representation of many-body operators, including tensor-product operators: general, spin, imaginary-time propagation, etc. - the correct associated arithmetic and algebra, implemented as class methods - classes for representing realistic nuclear two- and three-body Hamiltonians (e.g. Argonne V18, Illinois NNN) - large-scale parallel integration over random variables, crucial for the AFDMC method My goal is to make this package open source so that anyone may use it and contribute to it, particularly other researchers doing AFDMC calculations

Fox, Jordan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Collaborative Research: Explosive reconnection in relativistic magnetically-dominated plasmas (Final Report)

Magnetic fields can be the dominant component of astrophysical plasmas, so that the magnetic energy density might exceed even the rest-mass energy density of matter. In this extreme (and largely unexplored) regime the magnetic field controls the overall plasma evolution, dissipation, and acceleration of non-thermal particles. This plasma regime, applicable to a variety of astrophysical sources - magnetars, pulsars and pulsar wind nebulae (PWNe), jets of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) and Gamma-Ray Bursters (GRBs) - is dramatically different from laboratory plasmas, the magnetospheres of planets, and the interplanetary plasma. Relativistic astrophysical sources then provide an unique opportunity to study the fundamental plasma physics of magnetically-dominated plasmas; a novel and fast-evolving field of theoretical research which, by investigating energy conversion and particle energization processes in plasmas, is of vital importance to the Fusion Energy Sciences DoE program. Data coming from astrophysical high-energy missions, especially the Crab Nebula flares recently observed by the Fermi and AGILE satellites, suggest that the acceleration of non-thermal particles to the highest energies occurs in magnetic reconnection events - a major change of paradigm in high-energy astrophysics. Most importantly, observations demand that particle acceleration should proceed extremely fast (with accelerating electric field of the order of the magnetic field) and on macroscopic scales (much larger, e.g., than the microscopic plasma skin depth). We are conducting studies of the microphysics of magnetically-dominated plasmas focussing in particular on the highly dynamic regime of explosive reconnection and associated particle acceleration in relativistic plasmas. We are studying the stability and explosive plasma dynamics, particle acceleration and radiation production in a number of idealized plasma configurations that approximate relevant astrophysical sources (like the magnetic ABC structures and interacting flux tubes, as well as generalizations of analytical models of X-point collapse to relativistic plasmas). The well-studied case of the Crab Nebula is taken as a prototypical example for the application of the model. We are combining analytical studies of explosive magnetic dynamics and dissipation in relativistic plasmas with particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations and fluid simulations. The theoretical model, fluid and particle-in-cell simulations are cross-checked for agreement and convergence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optimizing enzymes for plastic upcycling using machine learning design and high throughput experiments

Plastic use is ubiquitous in the modern world, and polyethylene terephthalate (PET) is one of the most abundantly produced plastics (and the most highly produced polyester), with ~65 million metric tons manufactured annually. To the consumer, PET is likely most recognizable as the plastic used to make beverage bottles. Like many plastics, traditional mechanical or chemical means of PET deconstruction and upcycling are costly and inefficient. Because of these challenges, recycled plastic is generally of lower quality and is more expensive to produce than virgin plastic derived from petroleum. Ultimately, this results in most plastic ending up as waste. We view plastic waste as an underutilized resource which, with the development of more efficient and high-quality recycling processes, could (1) generate significant economic value while (2) decreasing petroleum usage and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as (3) minimizing its negative environmental and health impacts. Biocatalytic recycling, or biomanufacturing the basic building blocks of new plastic from plastic waste, is a promising approach to plastic reuse that complements existing recycling technologies. Recently, biological enzymes capable of breaking down PET have garnered significant attention as an attractive means of dealing with the plastic problem. These enzymes are currently undergoing pilot studies for implementation in industrial-scale enzyme-based recycling. However, there are significant limitations to current enzymes, including the need to perform costly pre-processing of the plastic waste before the enzymes are able to work. Further optimization of these enzymes is necessary to make these technologies competitive, and ultimately incentivise industry-wide adoption of this biology-based green recycling technology. n this work we demonstrate a means to design and generate performant biological enzymes, capable of efficiently deconstructing plastic waste. Specifically, we applied recent advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and statistical analysis to design new versions and discover natural enzymes capable of breaking down PET. We focused on optimizing key properties that are important for industrial-scale enzymatic recycling such as pH and thermotolerance. Normal testing of enzymatic plastic-deconstruction is extremely labor intensive and so through this work we also developed a robotic-assisted experimental pipeline capable of characterizing thousands of candidate enzymes. The results of this iterative, AI-guided, multi-discipline approach have led to increases in enzymatic breakdown of over 150X over starting enzymes. This work supports the rapidly developing and transformative field of biocatalytic solutions to environmental problems beyond the discovery and predictive understanding of enzymes for polymer recycling, and has wide implications for tackling numerous energy problems such as carbon capture and fixation (e.g., engineering carbon monoxide dehydrogenase and the rubisco-pathway), biomining (e.g., design of lanthanide-binding proteins) and biomanufacturing (e.g., lignin-deconstruction enzymes).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Downscaling of SoilMERGE in the United States Southern Great Plains

SoilMERGE (SMERGE) is a root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) product that covers the entire continental United States and spans 1978 to 2019. Machine learning techniques, Random Forest (RF), eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Gradient Boost (GBoost) downscaled SMERGE to spatial resolutions straddling the field scale domain (100 to 3000 m). Study area was northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The coarse resolution of SMERGE (0.125 degree) limits this product’s utility. To validate downscaled results in situ data from four sources were used that included: United States Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observatory, United States Climate Reference Network (USCRN), Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN), and Soil moisture Sensing Controller and oPtimal Estimator (SoilSCAPE). In addition, RZSM retrievals from NASA’s Airborne Microwave Observatory of Subcanopy and Surface (AirMOSS) campaign provided a nearly spatially continuous comparison. Three periods were examined: era 1 (2016 to 2019), era 2 (2012 to 2015), and era 3 (2003 to 2007). During eras 1 and 2, RF outperformed XGBoost and GBoost, whereas during era 3 no model dominated. Performance was better during eras 1 and 2 as opposed to the pre-L band era 3. Improvements across all eras, regions, and models realized from downscaling included an increase in correlation from 0.03 to 0.42 and a decrease in ub RMSE from -0.0005 to -0.0118 m 3 /m 3 . This study demonstrates the feasibility of SMERGE downscaling opening the prospect for the development of a long-term RZSM dataset at a more desirable field-scale resolution with the potential to support diverse hydrometeorological and agricultural applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tucana B: A Potentially Isolated and Quenched Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy at $D$ ≈ 1.4 Mpc*

We report the discovery of Tucana B, an isolated ultra-faint dwarf galaxy at a distance of $D$ = 1.4 Mpc. Tucana B was found during a search for ultra-faint satellite companions to the known dwarfs in the outskirts of the Local Group, although its sky position and distance indicate the nearest galaxy to be ~500 kpc distant. Deep ground-based imaging resolves Tucana B into stars, and it displays a sparse red giant branch consistent with an old, metal-poor stellar population analogous to that seen in the ultra-faint dwarf galaxies of the Milky Way, albeit at fainter apparent magnitudes. Tucana B has a half-light radius of 80 ± 40 pc and an absolute magnitude of ${M}_{V}=-{6.9}_{-0.6}^{+0.5}$ mag (${L}_{V}=({5}_{-2}^{+4})\times {10}^{4}$ L⊙), which is again comparable to the Milky Way's ultra-faint satellites. There is no evidence for a population of young stars, either in the optical color–magnitude diagram or in GALEX archival ultraviolet imaging, with the GALEX data indicating $\mathrm{log}({\mathrm{SFR}}_{\mathrm{NUV}}/{M}_{\odot }\,{\mathrm{yr}}^{-1})\lt -5.4$ for star formation on ≲100 Myr timescales. Given its isolation and physical properties, Tucana B may be a definitive example of an ultra-faint dwarf that has been quenched by reionization, providing strong confirmation of a key driver of galaxy formation and evolution at the lowest mass scales. It also signals a new era of ultra-faint dwarf galaxy discovery at the extreme edges of the Local Group.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The discovery of a radio galaxy of at least 5 Mpc

Context. Giant radio galaxies (GRGs, or colloquially ‘giants’) are the Universe’s largest structures generated by individual galaxies. They comprise synchrotron-radiating active galactic nucleus ejecta and attain cosmological (megaparsec-scale) lengths. However, the main mechanisms that drive their exceptional growth remain poorly understood. Aims. To deduce the main mechanisms that drive a phenomenon, it is usually instructive to study extreme examples. If there exist host galaxy characteristics that are an important cause for GRG growth, then the hosts of the largest GRGs are likely to possess them. Similarly, if there exist particular large-scale environments that are highly conducive to GRG growth, then the largest GRGs are likely to reside in them. For these reasons, we aim to perform a case study of the largest GRG available. Methods. We reprocessed the LOFAR Two-Metre Sky Survey DR2 by subtracting compact sources and performing multi-scale CLEAN de-convolutions at 60" and 90" resolution. The resulting images constitute the most sensitive survey yet for radio galaxy lobes, whose diffuse nature and steep synchrotron spectra have allowed them to evade previous detection attempts at higher resolution and shorter wavelengths. We visually searched these images for GRGs. Results. We have discovered Alcyoneus, a low-excitation radio galaxy with a projected proper length l p = 4.99 ± 0.04 Mpc. Both its jets and lobes are detected at very high significance, and the SDSS-based identification of the host, at spectroscopic redshift z spec = 0.24674 ± 6 × 10 -5 , is unambiguous. The total luminosity density at ν = 144 MHz is L ν = 8 ± 1 × 10 25 W Hz -1 , which is below average, though near median (percentile 45 ± 3%) for GRGs. The host is an elliptical galaxy with a stellar mass M* = 2.4 ± 0.4 × 10 11 M ⊙ and a super-massive black hole mass M• = 4 ± 2 × 10 8 M ⊙ , both of which tend towards the lower end of their respective GRG distributions (percentiles 25 ± 9% and 23 ± 11%). The host resides in a filament of the Cosmic Web. Through a new Bayesian model for radio galaxy lobes in three dimensions, we estimate the pressures in the megaparsec-cubed-scale northern and southern lobes to be P min,1 = 4.8 ± 0.3 × 10 -16 Pa and P min,2 = 4.9 ± 0.6 × 10 -16 Pa, respectively. The corresponding magnetic field strengths are B min,1 = 46 ± 1 pT and B min,2 = 46 ± 3 pT. Conclusions. We have discovered what is in projection the largest known structure made by a single galaxy – a GRG with a projected proper length l p = 4.99 ± 0.04 Mpc. The true proper length is at least l min = 5.04 ± 0.05 Mpc. Beyond geometry, Alcyoneus and its host are suspiciously ordinary: the total low-frequency luminosity density, stellar mass, and super-massive black hole mass are all lower than, though similar to, those of the medial GRG. Thus, very massive galaxies or central black holes are not necessary to grow large giants, and, if the observed state is representative of the source over its lifetime, neither is high radio power. A low-density environment remains a possible explanation. The source resides in a filament of the Cosmic Web, with which it might have significant thermodynamic interaction. The pressures in the lobes are the lowest hitherto found, and Alcyoneus therefore represents the most promising radio galaxy yet to probe the warm–hot inter-galactic medium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Final technical report for DE-SC0022255: Discovering Physically Meaningful Structures from Climate Extreme Data

The past two decades have witnessed natural disasters and extreme weather events that affect millions of people. At the same time, the data volume from high-resolution climate models, satellite, in-situ and ground-based measurements have substantially increased to petabyte scales. These new and readily accessible datasets create the previously missing pipeline required for scientific machine learning (ML) and therefore new opportunities for improved understanding and prediction capability of climate extreme events. This project developed a deep latent variable model framework to discover physically meaningful hidden structures from high-dimensional, spatiotemporal climate extreme data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A neural master equation framework for multiscale modeling of molecular processes: application to atomic-scale plasma processes

Plasma-surface interactions (PSI) play a crucial role in microelectronics fabrication; however, their multiscale nature and array of complex, often unknown interactions make computational modeling of PSIs extremely difficult. To this end, we propose a general neural master equation (NME) framework that uses master equations to describe the dynamics of a molecular process, wherein neural networks learned from atomistic simulations represent unknown transitions between different system states. By leveraging the physics-based structure of master equations and data-driven state transitions, the NME framework promotes generalizability and physics interpretability, and can bridge disparate length and time scales. The framework is demonstrated for multiscale modeling of Si atomic layer etching and reactive ion etching, where the learned NME-based surface kinetic models exhibit good predictive and extrapolative capabilities for predicting experimentally relevant observables as a function of process parameters. The NME-based surface kinetic models obey physical constraints, which are violated in models based on neural ordinary differential equations. The proposed NME framework for multiscale modeling of molecular processes can pave the way for the discovery of new chemistries and materials in atomic-scale plasma processes.

Chemical engineering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of an Ultrahigh-bandwidth Phase Contrast Imaging System for detection of electron scale turbulence and Gigahertz Radio-Frequency Waves

The study of waves and turbulence is vital to the development of future reactor-grade plasma devices developed in the quest for fusion energy. These fluctuations are responsible for moving heat and particles across the magnetic field, and a predictive understanding of them is needed to achieve the density and temperature required to sustain a plasma fusion reaction. While many techniques have been developed for measuring waves and fluctuations, every measurement method has limitations. There are relatively few techniques for measuring very high frequency fluctuations, such as radio frequency waves injected to heat the plasma, unstable waves driven by suprathermal particles, or short wavelength electrostatic waves driven by electron temperature or density gradients. The present project builds upon the proven phase contrast imaging (PCI) technique to extend the response of the diagnostic by orders of magnitude in frequency and almost a factor of ten in spatial resolution. PCI provides a measurement of electron density based on small angle scattering of a CO-2 laser beam by using optical techniques to render a phase shift as an intensity change on a detector. Due to the telecommunications revolution, technological development by manufacturers has focused on components in the near -infrared, so that high- quality lasers and detectors at 1.55 µm are readily available. Shifting PCI design to a new, shorter wavelength has numerous advantages and challenges. Similar detector performance is available with room-temperature arrays with GHz bandwidth, while the detector arrays for 10.6 µm required liquid nitrogen cooling and were therefore limited to a bandwidth of about 1 MHz. Shifting to a shorter wavelength reduces the angle at which the laser beam scatters off of plasma waves, allowing more such scattered components to pass through the aperture of the vacuum vessel port and be collected by the PCI, which increases the spatial resolution. Concomitant with these benefits, various questions of performance arise. At shorter laser wave- length, the sensitivity to mirror and lens quality is increased, the contribution of the laser to the overall system noise is increased, and the sensitivity to vibrations is increased. The custom optical components at the heart of the PCI technique were required to be properly scaled for the shorter wavelength, so fabrication technologies needed to be explored. This project was designed to show that a low noise, high response PCI system at 1.55 µm could be constructed and operated, and then to quantify potential issues to allow extrapolation to a full-size production system providing physics measurements on a large plasma device. The first stage, producing the custom optical component called a Phase Plate, was successfully achieved using two methods. First, an easily reproduced masking and coating technique was able to produce good phase plates with the required parameters. Second, a nanofabrication technique was found to produce extremely high quality phase plates at a competitive price. The PCI constructed with the new phase plates and 1.55 µm laser was found to provide excellent wavelength measurements with the theoretically expected response. The sensitivity to optical surface quality was found to be in line with previous measurements at 10.6 µm. The observed signal-to-noise ratio was similar to the theoretically expected value. The effect of vibrations on PCI was studied with the first measurement of the effect of beam motion on PCI response and comparison to theory, allowing for a quantitative prediction of the effect of vibrations on a production PCI system and the requirements for improved beam stabilization. PCI is an extremely cost-effective method to provide a low noise, absolutely calibrated measurement of plasma fluctuations across a wide spatial scale. This project has shown that a 1.55 µm PCI using modern techniques and components is less expensive than the 10.6 µm PCI of a few years ago, with the largest savings in phase plate fabrication and the infrared detector array.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗