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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

An Extremely Luminous and Variable Ultraluminous X-ray Source in the Outskirts of Circinus Observed with Nustar

Following a serendipitous detection with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), we present a multiepoch spectral and temporal analysis of an extreme ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) located in the outskirts of the Circinus galaxy, hereafter Circinus ULX5, including coordinated XMM-Newton+NuSTAR follow-up observations. The NuSTAR data presented here represent one of the first instances of a ULX reliably detected at hard (E greater than 10 keV) X-rays. CircinusULX5is variable on long time scales by at least a factor of approx. 5 in flux, and was caught in a historically bright state during our 2013 observations (0.3-30.0 keV luminosity of 1.6 × 10(exp 40) erg s(exp−1)). During this epoch, the source displayed a curved 3-10 keV spectrum, broadly similar to other bright ULXs. Although pure thermal models result in a high energy excess in the NuSTAR data, this excess is too weak to be modeled with the disk reflection interpretation previously proposed to explain the 3-10 keV curvature in other ULXs. In addition to flux variability, clear spectral variability is also observed. While in many cases the interpretation of spectral components in ULXs is uncertain, the spectral and temporal properties of all the high quality data sets currently available strongly support a simple disk-corona model reminiscent of that invoked for Galactic binaries, with the accretion disk becoming more prominent as the luminosity increases. However, although the disk temperature and luminosity are well correlated across all time scales currently probed, the observed luminosity follows L alpha T (exp 1.70+/-0.17), flatter than expected for simple blackbody radiation. The spectral variability displayed here is highly reminiscent of that observed from known Galactic black hole binaries (BHBs) at high luminosities. This comparison implies a black hole mass of approx. 90M for Circinus ULX5. However, given the diverse behavior observed from Galactic BHB accretion disks, this mass estimate is still uncertain. Finally, the limits placed on any undetected iron absorption features with the 2013 data set imply that we are not viewing the central regions of Circinus ULX5 through any extreme super-Eddington outflow.

black hole physics↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observations of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Satellite Observation of Extremes in Precipitation

The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis and 3-hr semi-global analyses using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data are used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation ( both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The data sets are also explored to monitor extremes in precipitation related to localized and regional flooding and the occurrence of droughts.

Adler, Robert F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Modeling a Coronal Mass Ejection from an Extended Filament Channel. I. Eruption and Early Evolution

We present observations and modeling of the magnetic field configuration, morphology, and dynamics of a large-scale, high-latitude filament eruption observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We analyze the 2015 July 9–10 filament eruption and the evolution of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) through the solar corona. The slow streamer-blowout CME leaves behind an elongated post-eruption arcade above the extended polarity inversion line that is only poorly visible in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) disk observations and does not resemble a typical bright flare-loop system. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation results from our data-inspired modeling of this eruption compare favorably with the EUV and white-light coronagraph observations. We estimate the reconnection flux from the simulation’s flare-arcade growth and examine the magnetic-field orientation and evolution of the erupting prominence, highlighting the transition from an erupting sheared-arcade filament channel into a streamer-blowout flux-rope CME. Our results represent the first numerical modeling of a global-scale filament eruption where multiple ambiguous and complex observational signatures in EUV and white light can be fully understood and explained with the MHD simulation. In this context, our findings also suggest that the so-called “stealth CME” classification, as a driver of unexpected or “problem” geomagnetic storms, belongs more to a continuum of observable/non-observable signatures than to separate or distinct eruption processes.

Benjamin J Lynch↗
NASA NTRS2021

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗
NASA NTRS2015

Carbon and Sulfur Isotopic Signatures of Ancient Life and Environment at the Microbial Scale: Neoarchean Shales and Carbonates

An approach to coordinated, spatially resolved, in situ carbon isotope analysis of organic matter and carbonate minerals, and sulfur three- and four-isotope analysis of pyrite with an unprecedented combination of spatial resolution, precision, and accuracy is described. Organic matter and pyrite from eleven rock samples of Neoarchean drill core express nearly the entire range of delta(sup 13)C, delta(sup 34)S, Delta(sup 33)S, and Delta(sup 36)S known from the geologic record, commonly in correlation with morphology, mineralogy, and elemental composition. A new analytical approach (including a set of organic calibration standards) to account for a strong correlation between H/C and instrumental bias in SIMS delta(sup 13)C measurement of organic matter is identified. Small (2-3 microns) organic domains in carbonate matrices are analyzed with sub-permil accuracy and precision. Separate 20- to 50-micron domains of kerogen in a single approx. 0.5 cu cm sample of the approx. 2.7 Ga Tumbiana Formation have delta(sup 13)C = −52.3 +/- 0.1per mille and −34.4 +/- 0.1per mille, likely preserving distinct signatures of methanotrophy and photoautotrophy. Pyrobitumen in the approx. 2.6 Ga Jeerinah Formation and the approx. 2.5 Ga Mount McRae Shale is systematically 13C-enriched relative to co-occurring kerogen, and associations with uraniferous mineral grains suggest radiolytic alteration. A large range in sulfur isotopic compositions (including higher Delta(sup 33)S and more extreme spatial gradients in Delta(sup 33)S and Delta(sup 36)S than any previously reported) are observed in correlation with morphology and associated mineralogy. Changing systematics of delta(sup 34)S, Delta(sup 33)S, and Delta(sup 36)S, previously investigated at the millimeter to centimeter scale using bulk analysis, are shown to occur at the micrometer scale of individual pyrite grains. These results support the emerging view that the dampened signature of mass-independent sulfur isotope fractionation (S-MIF) associated with the Mesoarchean continued into the early Neoarchean, and that the connections between methane and sulfur metabolism affected the production and preservation of S-MIF during the first half of the planet's history.

isotopic signatures↗
NASA NTRS1983

Integration of environmental and spectral data for sunflower stress determination

Stress in sunflowers was assessed in western and northwestern Minnesota. Weekly ground observations (acquired in 1980 and 1981) were analyzed in concert with large scale aerial photography and concurrent LANDSAT data. Using multidate supervised and unsupervised classification procedures, it was found that all crops grown in association with sunflowers in the study area are spectrally separable from one another. Under conditions of extreme drought, severely stressed plants were differentiable from those not severely stressed, but between-crop separation was not possible. Initial regression analyses to estimate sunflower seed yield showed a sensitivity to environmental stress during the flowering and seed development stages. One of the most important biological factors related to sunflower production in the Red River Valley area was found to be the extent and severity of insect infestations.

Lillesand, T.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Interferometry for X-Ray Astronomy

With direct imaging, the nature of distant astronomical objects and the physical mechanisms that control them can be constrained and understood. From Galileo's observations of the solar system, to Hubble Space Telescope's imaging of distant galaxies, improved astronomical imaging has always brought scientific understanding. The x-ray band of the spectrum, where exotic objects can have extremely high surface brightness, is ideally suited for high resolution imaging, but has lacked ultra-high quality telescopes. We report a practical x-ray interferometer that features high efficiency, affordable mirrors, adjustable baseline, and can be scaled to a full size observatory. Our prototype system, with just under one millimeter of baseline, created fringes at 1.25 keV with angular resolution of 100 milli-arcseconds. With a larger version of this interferometer in orbit it will be possible to resolve stars, black holes and other compact constituents of the universe. We can study the environments of pulsars, image and then model relativistic blast waves, study the space-time metric near the surface of a black hole, watch the physical formation of astrophysical jets, and study the dynamos of stellar coronae.

Cash, Webster↗
NASA NTRS2001

Fully Coupled Micro/Macro Deformation, Damage, and Failure Prediction for SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates

The deformation, failure, and low cycle fatigue life of SCS-6/Ti-15-3 composites are predicted using a coupled deformation and damage approach in the context of the analytical generalized method of cells (GMC) micromechanics model. The local effects of inelastic deformation, fiber breakage, fiber-matrix interfacial debonding, and fatigue damage are included as sub-models that operate on the micro scale for the individual composite phases. For the laminate analysis, lamination theory is employed as the global or structural scale model, while GMC is embedded to operate on the meso scale to simulate the behavior of the composite material within each laminate layer. While the analysis approach is quite complex and multifaceted, it is shown, through comparison with experimental data, to be quite accurate and realistic while remaining extremely efficient.

Bednarcyk, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The Effect of Infrastructure Sharing in Estimating Operations Cost of Future Space Transportation Systems

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular cost estimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations cost estimates may be made.

Sundaram, Meenakshi↗
NASA NTRS2019

Mars Ascent Vehicle Hybrid Propulsion Development

Hybrid propulsion is being investigated as a propulsion method for a possible Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) application. MAV is part of a proposed larger Mars Sample Return (MSR) campaign plan to bring samples from Mars to earth for examination. The Mars Ascent Vehicle would launch Mars surface samples found and packaged by the Mars 2020 mission to orbit around Mars. This version of hybrid propulsion is based on a wax based solid fuel, called SP7A, and a Mixed Oxides of Nitrogen oxidizer, MON-25. SP7 is a new fuel formulation developed by Space Propulsion Group and was modified for this application to be resistant to Mars temperature extremes and modified again to lower the regression rate to become SP7A. MON-25 was chosen for its low freezing temperature. Due to cost constraints, MON-3 was the oxidizer used during testing through 2018. In 2019, full scale hybrid testing with MON-25 commenced in Mojave, CA by Whittinghill Aerospace. One flight motor will be subjected to thermal cycling in a vacuum and later fired in a vacuum to demonstrate the proposed Liquid Injection Thrust Vector Control system performance at White Sands Test Facility (WSTF). In addition, there will be MON-25 characterization work done at Purdue University and WSTF. Additional testing of subscale and full scale motors will be conducted with MON-3 with fuel grain stress, fuel grain support and case design test objectives by Space Propulsion Group Inc. of Butte, MT. This paper documents some of the testing, issues and accomplishments with the MAV hybrid propulsion option that is being considered (along with a two-stage solid propulsion option).

Story, G. T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Entry, Descent, and Landing Analysis of Low Mass Martian Probe for Surface Climate Network

Aeolus is a mission to provide the first direct measurements of Martian atmospheric wind speeds and correlate them with thermal and compositional data to bring together a complete systematic description for the global energy balance and climate cycles of Mars. Objective A of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) Goal II cites a Science Investigation Area to develop a network of surface landers to provide global, diurnal and synoptic coverage of the near-surface environment to characterize present Mars climate [1]. Aeolus will characterize the present Martian global climate system via an orbiter element and a novel surface network element. A series of low mass, low power probes will be distributed across the Martian surface and measure pressure, sky opacity, temperature, wind speed, water vapor and other trace gases. Low mass and power electrical systems designed to operate in extreme cold and daily thermal cycling for one Martian year could facilitate lower cost, Class-D science probes. Aeolus is targeting a total per-probe mass of <5 kg. Recent advances in nanofabrication of chip-scale sensors that are highly robust to temperature and shock, combined with a novel packaging concept (the deployable sensor probe [2]) originally developed by the Aerospace Corp., for the first time enables a Mars surface climate sensor network. These probes are folded flat during transit to Mars and automatically deploy into the final reentry configuration once released from the orbiter. The capability to fold for stowage significantly increases the probe quantity carried by the orbiter.

EDL↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Thermal Response in a Li-ion Cell on a UAV Fight Profile

As the energy storage devices continue to "pack" more energy in a small space, any damage, battery component failure, manufacturing defect, or electrically abusing the battery can lead to catastrophic thermal runaway events. A catastrophic thermal event in a cell leads to high temperature, in some instances spewing of battery materials due to gas development from side reactions initiated due to high internal temperatures. Also, a thermal runaway event can propagate from a single "failed" cell to the pack in a battery pack, leading to a more significant event. Mitigating a thermal runaway event is important in the commercial and automotive sectors. However, preventing such events in an electric aircraft (or air taxis) is paramount due to the lack of alternatives in the event of a failure. Battery prognostics algorithms allow the prediction of state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) of a Li-ion battery in a UAV (unmanned air vehicle) [1]. For this presentation, we will extend this two-level battery predictive algorithm to predict SOC, EOL, and estimated maximum temperature during a simulated flight. The model is extended by integrating a lumped physics-driven thermal model for high current densities [2]. The parameters used to control SOC and EOL are maximum storable charge, time constant for Li-ion diffusivity in the carbon particles, and internal cell resistance. Cycling leads to an increase in the heat generated by an aged Li-ion cell with a LiyCoO2 (LCO) cathode and a LixC6 (MCMB) anode. The aging of a cell leads to increase in SEI layer thickness, the diffusion time for the lithium ions inside the electrodes, and the local reaction rates, in addition to the thermodynamic abuse caused by fixed cycling voltages controlled by a Battery Management System. As the battery ages, the cell resistance increases, while the onset temperature of the thermal runaway decreases (depends on the cell chemistry and cell abuse history). Any large deviation of the cell temperature from the estimated (expected) value can identify a faulty cell. Since SEI decomposition has the lowest onset temperature in the series of reactions leading to thermal runaway, the model considers the self-heating rate of the SEI decomposition as onset temperature (similar to Ref. [3]). The parameters in the Arrhenius equation for the SEI heating rate depend on the number of cycles, the cell's operating temperature, and the cell's abuse history [4,5]. Coupling the electrochemical, thermal, and aging model allow the prognostic algorithm to estimate a typical cell voltage and temperature as a function of age (cycling and calendar), whose departure from measured values from the BMS is used to identify a safety event. In addition, we will present the results from two simulated flight scenarios for a UAV: typical and extreme, since the power requirements vary significantly during take-off, landing, and changing altitudes, while the power requirements remain low during the cruise. For this presentation, the power requirement for a battery pack in a UAV is scaled to a single cell. This cell is cycled through a simulated profile, and the data is collected and used to predict a safety event.

Li-ion↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observed Changes in Hydroclimate Attributed to Human Forcing

Observational and modeling studies indicate significant changes in the global hydroclimate in the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries due to anthropogenic climate change. In this review, we analyze the recent literature on the observed changes in hydroclimate attributable to anthropogenic forcing, the physical and biological mechanisms underlying those changes, and the advantages and limitations of current detection and attribution methods. Changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of precipitation minus evaporation ( P–E ) are consistent with increased water vapor content driven by higher temperatures. While thermodynamics explains most of the observed changes, the contribution of dynamics is not yet well constrained, especially at regional and local scales, due to limitations in observations and climate models. Anthropogenic climate change has also increased the severity and likelihood of contemporaneous droughts in southwestern North America, southwestern South America, the Mediterranean, and the Caribbean. An increased frequency of extreme precipitation events and shifts in phenology has also been attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While considerable uncertainties persist on the role of plant physiology in modulating hydroclimate and vice versa, emerging evidence indicates that increased canopy water demand and longer growing seasons negate the water-saving effects from increased water-use efficiency.

Drought↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Firesense: Supporting Operational Partners Through Co-Development

Fire is a natural disturbance and fundamental to many ecosystems, but, across the United States and many areas globally, fires have become more common, larger and more likely to occur at the same time. This has the potential to challenge resource allocation and response and requires coordinated integration of technology and tools at the spatial and temporal scales required by practitioners who make wildland fire management decisions. In the US wildfire is currently managed across state, federal, and tribal agencies who leverage various datasets to guide management decisions. FireSense, a NASA Science Mission Directorate project, aims to develop and deliver trailblazing technology and tools for use before, during, and after wildland fires by working together with land managers and practitioners. FireSense is focused on turning information into solutions by expanding partnerships and collaborations with operational agencies to inform and deliver data and technology to support decisions for wildland fire management. Through implementation across the US and with campaign activities in a variety of landscapes, coordinated research and development work will build upon adaptive and use-inspired approaches that can be put into operation. By leveraging and complementing partner activities through coordinated investment, we support a more comprehensive and cohesive response that can advance fire science to better understand fire behavior and effects through integrated measurement, monitoring and modeling. We present updates from in-progress technology development and field campaigns within the US which include sampling and application across scales with information from multiple sensors collocated with field measurements and highlighting the importance of cross-scale observations during the fire lifecycle. Coordinated investment in new science and technology for the complete fire lifecycle supports a comprehensive and cohesive fire response that help to overcome barriers and anticipate and manage the new reality of extreme fires in a warming world.

Jacquelyn Shuman↗
NASA NTRS2023

Evaluation of a Regional Crop Model Implementation for Sub-National Yield Assessments in Kenya

CONTEXT: Cropping system models can be used to both assess regional food security and to monitor and predict agricultural drought. Agriculture in Kenya is extremely important to both the economy and food security of the country. OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated a regional implementation of a widely used crop model, the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), within a coupled modeling framework, the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS), over Kenya. The goal of this study was to assess the ability of RHEAS to simulate the annual variability of maize yields at the county level and evaluate the uncertainty inherent in the model and inputs. METHODS: The RHEAS system implements a stochastic ensemble approach to account for field scale variabilities in crop management practices and underlying soil and weather conditions. Satellite-derived datasets were used to evaluate the land surface component of the system and seasonally disaggregated yield for 5 years was used to assess the performance of the cropping system model. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The median correlation between RHEAS and satellite-derived soil moisture and evapotranspiration estimates were 0.78, and 0.51, respectively, indicating that the model is able to capture the key drivers of the hydrological budget. Overall, RHEAS simulated yearly yield variations with a median correlation of 0.7 with reported yields, with the best performance in the short rains season. However, across both seasons, the RHEAS model was positively biased on the order of ~1.6 MT/ha. The overall median unbiased RMSE was 0.66 MT/ha. The RHEAS system shows skill at simulating extreme departures in anomalies, and a majority of the time (62.5%) the reported yields fall within the interquartile range of the simulations. SIGNIFICANCE: One of the most important areas of improvement for the next generation of agricultural data and models is to better understand and communicate the inherent uncertainties. This is especially critical in data-limited regions. Here we present a modeling system and its implementation that begins to address these concerns. We demonstrate the ability to simulate broad trends in yields at the county level for sub-annual yields with skills that commensurate previous national/annual level studies.

Crop model↗
NASA NTRS2016

Landslides in West Coast Metropolitan Areas: The Role of Extreme Weather Events

Rainfall-induced landslides represent a pervasive issue in areas where extreme rainfall intersects complex terrain. A farsighted management of landslide risk requires assessing how landslide hazard will change in coming decades and thus requires, inter alia, that we understand what rainfall events are most likely to trigger landslides and how global warming will affect the frequency of such weather events. We take advantage of 9 years of landslide occurrence data compiled by collating Google news reports and of a high-resolution satellite-based daily rainfall data to investigate what weather triggers landslide along the West Coast US. We show that, while this landslide compilation cannot provide consistent and widespread monitoring everywhere, it captures enough of the events in the major urban areas that it can be used to identify the relevant relationships between landslides and rainfall events in Puget Sound, the Bay Area, and greater Los Angeles. In all these regions, days that recorded landslides have rainfall distributions that are skewed away from dry and low-rainfall accumulations and towards heavy intensities. However, large daily accumulation is the main driver of enhanced hazard of landslides only in Puget Sound. There, landslide are often clustered in space and time and major events are primarily driven by synoptic scale variability, namely "atmospheric rivers" of high humidity air hitting anywhere along the West Coast, and the interaction of frontal system with the coastal orography. The relationship between landslide occurrences and daily rainfall is less robust in California, where antecedent precipitation (in the case of the Bay area) and the peak intensity of localized downpours at sub-daily time scales (in the case of Los Angeles) are key factors not captured by the same-day accumulations. Accordingly, we suggest that the assessment of future changes in landslide hazard for the entire the West Coast requires consideration of future changes in the occurrence and intensity of atmospheric rivers, in their duration and clustering, and in the occurrence of short-duration (sub-daily) extreme rainfall as well. Major regional landslide events, in which multiple occurrences are recorded in the catalog for the same day, are too rare to allow a statistical characterization of their triggering events, but a case study analysis indicates that a variety of synoptic-scale events can be involved, including not only atmospheric rivers but also broader cold- and warm-front precipitation. That a news-based catalog of landslides is accurate enough to allow the identification of different landslide/ rainfall relationships in the major urban areas along the US West Coast suggests that this technology can potentially be used for other English-language cities and could become an even more powerful tool if expanded to other languages and non-traditional news sources, such as social media.

landslides↗