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NASA NTRS2010

Active Debris Removal - A Grand Engineering Challenge for the Twenty-First Century

The collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 underlined the potential of an ongoing collision cascade effect (the Kessler Syndrome ) in the near-Earth orbital debris environment. A 2006 NASA analysis of the instability of the debris population in the low Earth orbit (LEO, the region below 2000 km altitude) shows that the environment has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase in the next 200 years, even without any future launches. The increase is driven by fragments generated via collisions among existing objects in LEO. In reality, the situation will be worse than this prediction because satellite launches will continue and unexpected major breakups may continue to occur. Mitigation measures commonly adopted by the international space community (such as the 25-year rule) will help, but will be insufficient to stop the population growth. To better preserve the near-Earth space environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) should be considered. The idea of active debris removal is not new. However, due to the monumental technical, resource, operational, legal, and political challenges associated with removing objects from orbit, it has not yet been widely considered feasible. The recent major breakup events and the environment modeling efforts have certainly reignited the interest in using active debris removal to remediate the environment. This trend is further highlighted by the National Space Policy of the United States of America, released by the White House in June 2010, where the President explicitly directs NASA and the Department of Defense to pursue research and development of technology and techniques, to mitigate and remove on-orbit debris, reduce hazards, and increase understanding of the current and future debris environment. A 2009 modeling study by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has shown that, in order to maintain the LEO debris population at a constant level for the next 200 years, an active debris removal of about five objects per year is needed. The targets identified for removal are those with the highest mass and collision probability products. Analyses from the study indicate that the majority of those objects are spent upper stages with masses ranging from 1 to more than 8 metric tons, residing in several altitude regions and concentrated in about 10 inclination bands. To remove five of those objects per year in a cost-effective manner truly represents a grand challenge in engineering and technology development. An end-to-end debris removal operation includes, in general terms, launches orbit rendezvous, precision tracking, stabilization (of the tumbling motion), capture, and deorbit of the targets. An ADR system deigned to remove a single object is not very cost-effective. Therefore, the repeatability of the removal system is almost a requirement. Some of the technologies involved in the ADR process do exist, but the difficulty is to make them more cost effective. Other technologies, such as ways to stabilize a massive tumbling upper stage and the capture mechanisms, are new and will require major innovative research and development efforts. This paper summarizes an updated assessment of the environment, including what needs to be done to control the population growth, and outlines the major engineering and technology challenges to carry out active debris removal to preserve the environment.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

NASA NTRS2005

[Stellar Occultation Studies of Small Bodies in the Outer Solar System: Accomplishments, Status, and Plans]

Bodies residing in the outer solar system exhibit unique physical processes, and some of the lessons learned from them can be applied to understanding what occurred in the outer solar system during its formation and early evolution. Pluto, the largest known Kuiper Belt object (KBO), and its near twin Triton--an ex-KBO that has been captured by Neptune--have nitrogen atmospheres that are in vapor-pressure equilibrium with surface ice. These atmospheres are most sensitively probed from Earth by the technique of Stellar occultations, which can provide the temperature and pressure profiles of these atmospheres at a spatial resolution of a few kilometers. Recent results from occultations show that the surface pressure of Triton's atmosphere has been increasing and that the shape of the atmosphere deviates from its expected spherical figure. With the occultation technique we can also learn the sizes of smaller bodies that have formed in the outer solar system: Charon, the Centaurs, and KBOs. Our proposed program involves identifying occultation candidates, predicting occultations, observing occultations, analysis of the data, and synthesis of the occultation results with other data. The main goals for our proposed work are to (i) further observe occultations by Triton with the objectives of understanding its pressure changes, distortion, and enigmatic thermal structure (ii) determine whether the abrupt drop in Pluto's stellar occultation light curve is caused by a sharp thermal gradient near its surface or by atmospheric haze, (iii) further observations to characterize the potential collapse of Pluto's atmosphere as it recedes from the sun (information that should be of interest to the Pluto-Kuiper Express), ( iv ) determine Charon's radius more accurately than can be done with the mutual events to derive a better estimate of Charon's density, and ( v ) directly determine the size (and albedo) of Centaurs with the goal of more accurately estimating the sizes of KBOS.

Elliott, James↗

NASA NTRS2009

Recent Advances in Thermoplastic Puncture-Healing Polymers

Self-healing materials provide a route for enhanced damage tolerance in materials for aerospace applications. In particular, puncture-healing upon impact has the potential to mitigate significant damage caused by high velocity micrometeoroid impacts. This type of material also has the potential to improve damage tolerance in load bearing structures to enhance vehicle health and aircraft durability. The materials being studied are those capable of instantaneous puncture healing, providing a mechanism for mechanical property retention in lightweight structures. These systems have demonstrated healing capability following penetration of fast moving projectiles -- velocities that range from 9 mm bullets shot from a gun (approx.330 m/sec) to close to micrometeoroid debris velocities of 4800 m/sec. In this presentation, we report on a suite of polymeric materials possessing this characteristic. Figure 1 illustrates the puncture healing concept. Puncture healing in these materials is dependent upon how the combination of a polymer's viscoelastic properties responds to the energy input resulting from the puncture event. Projectile penetration increases the temperature in the vicinity of the impact. Self-healing behavior occurs following puncture, whereby energy must be transferred to the material during impact both elastically and inelastically, thus establishing two requirements for puncture healing to occur: a.) The need for the puncture event to produce a local melt state in the polymer material and b.) The molten material has to have sufficient melt elasticity to snap back and close the hole. 1,2 Previous ballistic testing studies revealed that Surlyn materials warmed up to a temperature approx.98 C during projectile puncture (3 C higher than it s melting temperature). 1,2 The temperature increase produces a localized flow state and the melt elasticity to snap back thus sealing the hole. Table 1 lists the commercially polymers studied here, together with their physical properties. The polymers were selected based on chemical structure, tensile strengths, tensile moduli, glass transition temperature, melting temperatures, and impact strength. The thermal properties of the polymers were characterized by Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) and Dynamic Mechanical Analysis (DMA). Mechanical properties were assessed by a Sintech 2W instron according to ASTM D1708 or D638 at crosshead speeds of 5.08 cm/min. 7.6 cm x 7.6 cm panels of the different materials were prepared and ballistic testing was performed at various temperatures. The panels were shot with a .223 caliber semiautomatic rifle from a distance of 23 meters at various temperatures. Chronographs were used to measure initial and final bullet velocity. Temperatures at the site of impact were measured using a FLIR ThermaCAM S60 thermal camera. A Vision Research model Phantom 9 high speed video camera was used to capture high speed video footage of ballistics testing.

Gordon, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Reactive Sequencing for Autonomous Navigation Evolving from Phoenix Entry, Descent, and Landing

Virtual Machine Language (VML) is an award-winning advanced procedural sequencing language in use on NASA deep-space missions since 1997, and was used for the successful entry, descent, and landing (EDL) of the Phoenix spacecraft onto the surface of Mars. Phoenix EDL utilized a state-oriented operations architecture which executed within the constraints of the existing VML 2.0 flight capability, compatible with the linear "land or die" nature of the mission. The intricacies of Phoenix EDL included the planned discarding of portions of the vehicle, the complex communications management for relay through on-orbit assets, the presence of temporally indeterminate physical events, and the need to rapidly catch up four days of sequencing should a reboot of the spacecraft flight computer occur shortly before atmospheric entry. These formidable operational challenges led to new techniques for packaging and coordinating reusable sequences called blocks using one-way synchronization via VML sequencing global variable events. The coordinated blocks acted as an ensemble to land the spacecraft, while individually managing various elements in as simple a fashion as possible. This paper outlines prototype VML 2.1 flight capabilities that have evolved from the one-way synchronization techniques in order to implement even more ambitious autonomous mission capabilities. Target missions for these new capabilities include autonomous touch-and-go sampling of cometary and asteroidal bodies, lunar landing of robotic missions, and ultimately landing of crewed lunar vehicles. Close proximity guidance, navigation, and control operations, on-orbit rendezvous, and descent and landing events featured in these missions require elaborate abort capability, manifesting highly non-linear scenarios that are so complex as to overtax traditional sequencing, or even the sort of one-way coordinated sequencing used during EDL. Foreseeing advanced command and control needs for small body and lunar landing guidance, navigation and control scenarios, work began three years ago on substantial upgrades to VML that are now being exercised in scenarios for lunar landing and comet/asteroid rendezvous. The advanced state-based approach includes coordinated state transition machines with distributed decision-making logic. These state machines are not merely sequences - they are reactive logic constructs capable of autonomous decision making within a well-defined domain. Combined with the JPL's AutoNav software used on Deep Space 1 and Deep Impact, the system allows spacecraft to autonomously navigate to an unmapped surface, soft-contact, and either land or ascend. The state machine architecture enabled by VML 2.1 has successfully performed sampling missions and lunar descent missions in a simulated environment, and is progressing toward flight capability. The authors are also investigating using the VML 2.1 flight director architecture to perform autonomous activities like rendezvous with a passive hypothetical Mars sample return capsule. The approach being pursued is similar to the touch-and-go sampling state machines, with the added complications associated with the search for, physical capture of, and securing of a separate spacecraft. Complications include optically finding and tracking the Orbiting Sample Capsule (OSC), keeping the OSC illuminated, making orbital adjustments, and physically capturing the OSC. Other applications could include autonomous science collection and fault compensation.

asteroid↗

NASA NTRS2019

Supporting Crew Autonomy in Deep Space Exploration: Preliminary Onboard Capability Requirements and Proposed Research Questions. Technical Report of the Autonomous Crew Operations Technical Interchange Meeting

Communication delays are a critical challenge posed by long duration deep space exploration. Space missions historically have relied on an ever-present Mission Control Center (MCC) to direct operations in near real-time. As unanticipated anomalies that defeat fault detection and resolution systems do arise, the lack of real-time communication will significantly weaken what the MCC support represents: a reliable safety net for the flight crew through its deep and diverse areas of expertise and investigative resources. As a consequence, future space vehicles and habitats need to be equipped with capabilities to support the flight crew to operate with little or no ground support. Considerations must be given to vehicle and mission designs that will fortify the traditionally ground-centered safety net and forge new support systems, when communication delays exist. In August 2018, NASA’s Human Research Program, through its Human Factors and Behavioral Performance Element, convened a Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) on Autonomous Crew Operations at NASA Ames Research Center. The goal of the meeting was to gather input from NASA centers, industry, academia, and branches of the Department of Defense (DoD) to address how intelligent technologies can be applied to augment onboard capabilities to support crew anomaly response. The TIM featured 24 presentations by 29 speakers and hosted a total of 59 attendees, including 43 from 5 NASA centers (Ames, Johnson, Langley, Marshall, and Jet Propulsion Lab) and 4 from the DoD (3 from Army Research Lab and 1 from Naval Postgraduate School), with remaining attendees from academia (e.g., UC Davis, CMU) and industry (e.g., IBM, Siemens). Discussions were centered around three themes: standards and guidelines, lessons learned in analog environments, and technologies. To help provide a framework for discussion, a concept matrix describing anomaly response processes was created prior to the TIM (Figure 1, page 6). The matrix captures the steps involved (monitoring and detection, diagnosis, solution development and evaluation, solution implementation and verification, resolution documentation) as well as the resources and capabilities required to support these steps (data, knowledge, analysis, synthesis, resource management). A wallpaper size printout of the matrix was utilized at the TIM to solicit attendee inputs along the three themes; the activity garnered 108 submissions of ideas. Overall, what emerged from TIM discussions was a picture of mismatch between crew anomaly response needs and support that can be provided by existing intelligent technologies. The needs are broad, spanning multiple steps and processes/resources, with many of which lacking support from existing technologies, such as knowledge management throughout the steps of problem solving (especially in resolution documentation) and manpower management. The solutions provided by existing intelligent technologies are specific to the steps/processes that they are designed to support and constrained to solving only problems similar to those that have occurred before. What is lacking from technologies is typically made up by humans, specifically their complex critical thinking, creative problem solving, and domain expertise. In the end, the TIM highlighted the pressing need to support responses to onboard anomalies during autonomous crew operations, particularly those that have eluded the system tests, inspection, and other assurance processes. Such anomalies can potentially threaten crew and vehicle safety, as well as significantly impact overall operations with additional workload. These fairly rare events are difficult to anticipate and prepare for, given the state-of-the-art in intelligent technologies. This is true even for anomalies that stem from “unknown knowns”—cases in which there is sufficient external information to characterize the problem but the overall pattern fails to be recognized by the problem solver, or in which the internal knowledge needed to solve a problem is held tacitly and potentially accessible by the problem solver but not articulated. It follows that the ability to tackle anomalies lies not only with the availability of relevant information and knowledge but also their accessibility in times of need. To that end, we propose research questions along the following three broad themes: • How intelligent technologies can help make relevant knowledge and information available? • How intelligent technologies can help make relevant knowledge and information accessible? • How intelligent technologies can help support the crew operating as a team in anomaly response processes?

autonomous crew operations↗

NASA NTRS2026

Timing the Flames: Geostationary Satellite Detection of Diurnally Shifting Stubble Burning in Northwestern India

Post-monsoon open-field stubble burning in northwestern (NW) India—a key agricultural region known as the “breadbasket”—is a longstanding practice used to clear fields. Satellite observations spanning over two decades have revealed significant upward trends in crop production, vegetative greenness, and the frequency of post-harvest fires, with this last contributing to hazardous air quality during the peak burning season (mid-October to mid-November). Since 2022, thermal anomaly data from Aqua-MODIS and SNPP-VIIRS sensors have shown a sharp decline in reported fire events—an observation that contrasts starkly with the concurrent rise in regional aerosol loading detected from space. This apparent discrepancy became particularly pronounced in 2024–2025, prompting a closer examination using high-temporal-resolution imagery from the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) on the geostationary satellite GEO-KOMPSAT-2A. These observations revealed a clear spike in fire-related signals occurring around and after 4:00 p.m. local time, i.e., outside the typical noon to 2:00 p.m. detection window of the MODIS and VIIRS. A fire detection algorithm exploiting the fire-sensitive shortwave-infrared 3.8 μm signal and its contrast to 11.2 μm infrared observations is designed to adopt AMI observations and applied to its multi-year observations (2019–2025). The resulting fire dataset unambiguously shows a gradual shift in stubble burning activity toward the late afternoon hours beginning in 2022 which is underreported by polar-orbiting satellites. The orbital drift of NASA’s MODIS sensor on the Aqua platform allows detection of some of the gradually shifting fires during afternoon hours, but the MODIS still misses a large number of fires occurring around and after 4 p.m. The AMI’s relatively coarse spatial resolution (~4 km), a consequence of its slant viewing geometry over NW India, imposes inherent limitations on quantifying the full extent of fire occurrences. The operational air quality forecasting models currently assimilate satellite fire detections predominantly captured during early afternoon overpasses of the MODIS and VIIRS. The temporal shift in fire activity complicates such forecast, leading to a substantial underestimation of emissions. Intense stubble burning and the resulting air pollution highlight the need for effective crop residue management practices for mitigating the frequency of open biomass burning and thereby reducing episodic degradation of air quality and its associated public health and economic impacts.

post-monsoon stubble burning; northwestern India;↗

NASA NTRS1999

Vertical Profiles of Latent Heat Release and Their Retrieval for TOGA COARE Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model, SSM/I, and Ship-borne Radar Data

Latent heating profiles associated with three (TOGA COARE) Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment active convective episodes (December 10-17 1992; December 19-27 1992; and February 9-13 1993) are examined using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model and retrieved by using the Goddard Convective and Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm . The following sources of rainfall information are input into the CSH algorithm: Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1), Radar and the GCE model. Diagnostically determined latent heating profiles calculated using 6 hourly soundings are used for validation. The GCE model simulated rainfall and latent heating profiles are in excellent agreement with those estimated by soundings. In addition, the typical convective and stratiform heating structures (or shapes) are well captured by the GCE model. Radar measured rainfall is smaller than that both estimated by the GCE model and SSM/I in all three different COARE IFA periods. SSM/I derived rainfall is more than the GCE model simulated for the December 19-27 and February 9-13 periods, but is in excellent agreement with the GCE model for the December 10-17 period. The GCE model estimated stratiform amount is about 50% for December 19-27, 42% for December 11-17 and 56% for the February 9-13 case. These results are consistent with large-scale analyses. The accurate estimates of stratiform amount is needed for good latent heating retrieval. A higher (lower) percentage of stratiform rain can imply a maximum heating rate at a higher (lower) altitude. The GCE model always simulates more stratiform rain (10 to 20%) than the radar for all three convective episodes. SSM/I derived stratiform amount is about 37% for December 19-27, 48% for December 11-17 and 41% for the February 9-13 case. Temporal variability of CSH algorithm retrieved latent heating profiles using either GCE model simulated or radar estimated rainfall and stratiform amount is in good agreement with that diagnostically determined for all three periods. However, less rainfall and a smaller stratiform percentage estimated by radar resulted in a weaker (underestimated) latent heating profile and a lower maximum latent heating level compared to those determined diagnostically. Rainfall information from SSM/I can not retrieve individual convective events due to poor temporal sampling. Nevertheless, this study suggests that a good 4r, rainfall retrieval from SSM/I for a convective event always leads to a good latent heating retrieval. Sensitivity testing has been performed and the results indicate that the SSM/I derived time averaged stratiform amount may be underestimated for December 19-27. Time averaged heating profiles derived from SSM/I, however, are not in bad agreement with those derived by soundings for the December 10-17 convective period. The heating retrievals may be more accurate for longer time scales provided there is no bias in the sampling.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2004

Lithium-Ion rechargeable batteries on Mars Rover

NASA's Mars Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, have been roving on the surface of Mars, capturing impressive images of its terrain and analyzing the drillings from Martian rocks, to answer the ever -puzzling questions of life beyond Earth and origin of our planets. These rovers are being enabled by an advanced rechargeable battery system, lithium-ion, for the first time on a space mission of this scale, for keeping the rover electronics warm, and for supporting nighttime experimentation and communications. These rover Li-ion batteries are characterized by their unique low temperature capability, in addition to the usual advantages associated with Li-ion chemistry in terms of mass, volume and energy efficiency. To enable a rapid insertion of this advanced Li-ion chemistry into flight missions, we have performed several performance assessment studies on several prototype cells over the last few years. These tests mainly focused primarily on the long-term performance characteristics, such as cycling and storage, as described in our companion paper. In addition, various tests have been performed on MER cells and engineering and proto flight batteries; under conditions relevant to these missions. For example, we have examined the performance of the cells in: a) an inverted orientation, as during integration and launch, and b) conditions of low rate discharge, between 3.0-2.5 V to support the mission clock. Likewise, we have determined the impedance of the proto-flight Rover battery assembly unit in detail, with a view to asses whether a current-limiting resistor would be unduly stressed, in the event of a shorting induced by a failed pyro. In this paper we will describe these studies in detail, as well as the performance of Li-ion batteries in Spirit and Opportunity rovers, during cruise and on Mars.

2003 Mars Exploration Rover (MER)↗

NASA NTRS2020

A ROS-based Simulator for Testing the Enhanced Autonomous Navigation of the Mars 2020 Rover

In order to achieve the ambitious objectives of the Mars 2020 (M2020) mission, in particular the ability to autonomously traverse more challenging terrains more efficiently, new surface mobility software was developed for Enhanced Navigation (ENav). That decision was made early in the project, before most of the new surface flight software (FSW) existed, which created a need for a separate framework where the new navigation algorithms could be quickly prototyped and tested, before more realistic FSW-based testbeds became available. The JPL robotics team chose the Robot Operating System [1] (ROS) as the environment in which to test the new ENav algorithms. This made it possible to write the algorithms in the C language required by the FSW, so they could be directly ported over to the flight module later on, while leveraging all the C++ libraries and tools provided by ROS for simulation and testing. The ENav algorithms were developed as a separate C library, and stubs were used to replace any FSW-specific code, such as Event Reporting (EVRs) and data products (DPs). A ROS simulator was developed to generate a rich set of varied 3D terrains representative of the candidate Mars landing sites and simulate the physics of the rover motion, the point cloud perceived by the rover’s stereo vision system, and the new thinking-while-driving (TWD) navigation logic which directs the rover to drive autonomously to user-specified waypoints. To simulate the rover motion and perception, a ROS node was developed that uses a software library called HyperDrive Sim (HDSim), which is a wrapper for the Rover Sequencing and Visualization Program [2] (RSVP). That library provides roverterrain settling, realistic slip modelling, and camera rendering capability based on the rover’s NavCam machine vision models. To simulate the navigation logic, a ROS node was created that initializes and runs the ENav algorithms in a way that mimics the FSW execution, while also providing the capability to load and replay data products, including re-running the recorded inputs through the ENav algorithms for testing. An engineering Graphical User Interface (GUI) was also developed to visualize various elements, such as the rover pose during the drive, the simulated and perceived terrain, the selected local and global paths to the goal, the evaluated candidate paths and the reasons why they were rejected, the keep-in and keep-out zones (KIOZs), etc. Finally, an advanced Monte Carlo (MC) framework that can run many simulations in parallel on the Cloud and automatically generate reports that capture the key ENav performance metrics was developed to evaluate the system in a statisticallymeaningful way. This paper provides an overview of the ROSbased simulator used for testing the M2020 ENav algorithms.

Toupet, Olivier↗

NASA NTRS2011

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

The EFT-1 mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on onboard altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. There are four primary error sources impacting the sensed pressure: sensor errors, Analog to Digital conversion errors, aerodynamic errors, and atmosphere modeling errors. This last error source is induced by the conversion from pressure to altitude in the vehicle flight software, which requires an atmosphere model such as the US Standard 1976 Atmosphere model. There are several secondary error sources as well, such as waves, tides, and latencies in data transmission. Typically, for error budget calculations it is assumed that all error sources are independent, normally distributed variables. Thus, the initial approach to developing the EFT-1 barometric altimeter altitude error budget was to create an itemized error budget under these assumptions. This budget was to be verified by simulation using high fidelity models of the vehicle hardware and software. The simulation barometric altimeter model includes hardware error sources and a data-driven model of the aerodynamic errors expected to impact the pressure in the midbay compartment in which the sensors are located. The aerodynamic model includes the pressure difference between the midbay compartment and the free stream pressure as a function of altitude, oscillations in sensed pressure due to wake effects, and an acoustics model capturing fluctuations in pressure due to motion of the passive vents separating the barometric altimeters from the outside of the vehicle.

Brown, Denise L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Containment Assurance Risk Framework of the Mars Sample Return Program

The Mars Sample Return campaign aims at bringing rock and atmospheric samples from Mars to Earth through a series of robotic missions. These missions would collect the samples being cached and deposited on Martian soil by the Perseverance rover, place them in a container, and launch them into Martian orbit for subsequent capture by an orbiter that would bring them back. Given there exists a non-zero probability that the samples contain biological material, precautions are being taken to design systems that would break the chain of contact between Mars and Earth. These include techniques such as sterilization of Martian particles, redundant containment vessels, and a robust reentry capsule capable of accurate landings without a parachute. Requirements exist that the probability of containment not assured of Martian-contaminated material into Earth’s biosphere be less than one in a million. To demonstrate compliance with this strict requirement, a statistical framework was developed to assess the likelihood of containment loss during each sample return phase and make a statement about the total combined mission probability of containment not assured. The work presented here describes this framework, which considers failure modes or fault conditions that can initiate failure sequences ultimately leading to containment not assured. Reliability estimates are generated from databases, design heritage, component specifications, or expert opinion in the form of probability density functions or point estimates and provided as inputs to the mathematical models that simulate the different failure sequences. The probabilistic outputs are then combined following the logic of several fault trees to compute the ultimate probability of containment not assured. Given the multidisciplinary nature of the problem and the different types of mathematical models used, the statistical tools needed for analysis are required to be computationally efficient. While standard Monte Carlo approaches are used for fast models, a multi-fidelity approach to rare event probabilities is proposed for expensive models. In this paradigm, inexpensive low-fidelity models are developed for computational acceleration purposes while the expensive high-fidelity model is kept in the loop to retain accuracy in the results. This work presents an example of end-to-end application of this framework highlighting the computational benefits of a multi-fidelity approach.

Giuseppe Cataldo↗

NASA NTRS2014

Meteorological Aspects of Two Modes of Lightning Triggered Upward Lightning (LTUL) Events in Sprite-Producing MCSs

During the 2013 convective storm season, a high resolution 3-D Lightning Mapping Array was deployed to north central Kansas (Cummins et al, this conference.) In conjunction with fixed and mobile camera systems and electric field mills, this allowed for detailed investigations of lightning induced upward lighting (LTUL) discharges from tall objects in the region, including wind turbines. Also, concurrent observations using a network of low-light cameras deployed over the central U.S. as part of the PhOCAL program detected transient luminous events (TLEs) above the Kansas LMA (KSLMA). During the night of 29-30 May 2013, waves of precipitation associated with several large MCSs traversing Kansas moved through the KSLMA domain. We focus on two LTUL events that exemplify two modes of upward lightning production from tall structures. At 0859Z, 30 May 2013, a nearby + 92 kA CG, with extensive in-cloud branching passing overhead a wind farm, was followed by complex LTUL discharges from four turbines. In addition, a sprite was confirmed by the Bennett, CO SpriteNet camera. The parent flash covered a very large area. It initiated near the MCS convective leading line ~150 km to the south, and traveled into a stratiform precipitation maximum over the KSLMA. Typically when a +CG precedes an LTUL, the triggering component is either 1) the return stroke that traverses the leader network which initially forms near the towers or 2) new negative leader activity that develops once the return stroke reaches the end of the initial leader network that may not have initially been near the tower. In the latter case, the new leader development passes near the towers and triggers upward positive leaders similar to those associated with only an intracloud flash. The +CG return stroke may hit >10 km from the towers and the new leader development may travel extensive distances before getting close enough to the towers to trigger upward lightning. In this case, there was the typical long delay between the +CG return stroke and LTUL initiation (10s to 100s of ms). The parent lightning discharges for both sprites and LTULs have many common aspects and tend to occur in similar meteorological regimes, with the two phenomena often occurring together. An earlier LUTL, at 2320Z, 29 May 2013 was captured at 9900 fps by a Phantom camera in the PhOCAL mobile Lightning Investigation Vehicle (LIV). This discharge, exhibiting numerous recoil leaders, also occurred in a stratiform region some ~50-100 km north of an MCS convective core. While there was no preceding +CG, there was an extensive network of IC channels, one of which passed overhead close to the turbine. These observations are consistent with the ongoing UPLIGHTS studies of LTULs from tall towers in Rapid City. While a +CG is usually involved (~85% of the time), the LTUL occurs because of the associated extensive in cloud components passing over towers. The earlier case without a +CG typifies this second mode where the triggering component is a negative leader associated with the IC activity passing near the towers initiates the upward positive leaders. We will discuss the parent discharges, shown in their meteorological (radar and satellite) context, and attempt to better understand the charge structures present in both the convective and stratiform regions of the MCS. The sprite and its relationship to the parent discharge will similarly be discussed

Lyons, W. A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Plasma Aerocapture and Entry System for Manned Missions and Planetary Deep Space Orbiters

A rapid mission to Mars requires a large change in vehicle velocity upon arrival to establish a stable orbit. This demand is even greater for a Neptune science, requiring many kilometers per second of V. It is clear from past mission studies that a manned Mars mission and deep space planetary orbiters require aerobraking and aerocapture which use aerodynamic drag forces to slow the spacecraft. Aerocapture would enable long term studies of the outer planets and moons that would not be possible with existing braking methodologies. While the ability to utilize these atmospheres to slow down and capture spacecraft would dramatically reduce the cost, launch mass, and travel time, currently planned approaches require significant additional spacecraft mass and risk as the spacecraft must descend deep into the planetary atmosphere in order to produce significant drag on a relatively small aeroshell. The plasma based Magnetoshell being developed in this program holds the potential to perform the desired braking with significantly increased drag and control while dramatically reducing mass. Most importantly, this technology significantly lowers the risk involved with aerocapture thereby making manned planetary missions possible. The fundamental physics of the Magnetoshell is based on demonstrated experimental results. Successful implementation will dramatically decrease radiation exposures, mission risk, launch cost, and launch mass. Implementation of aerobraking by employing a solid deflector or aeroshell as a method for orbit insertion and circularization has been successfully demonstrated in the past, resulting in launch mass savings greater than 50%. In order to reduce the effect of frictional heating and dynamic pressure on the typically fragile aeroshell, or worse solar panels, the braking must be distributed over many orbital passes at a high altitude in the less dense regions of the atmosphere. It can thus take several months for a meter-scale, 1000 kg, aeroshell to execute the many elliptic orbital passes through the atmosphere to achieve the required V. This rather slow method of braking not only reduces frictional heating and dynamic forces, but also avoids unpredictable dynamic behavior due to turbulence, as well as unknown and seasonally variable atmospheric composition and temperature which has led to dangerous, mission-critical events. For exploration class missions such as DRA 5.0 aerocapture and Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are proposed for breaking at Mars for cargo missions. Traditional aerocapture is considered too risky for manned missions. Even with the enormous mass savings that aerocapture allows, it still requires 80 tons of aeroshell and significantly increased launch mass and propellant. As will be shown, by using Magnetoshells for aerobraking, the DRA 5.0 mission will save 224 metric tons (MT) and greater than $2 B in launch costs. Beyond the dramatic savings for existing mission architectures, a low-mass, risk-free aerocapture system would allow much more rapid missions to Mars and deep space orbiters by allowing direct, faster trajectories. As will be shown, the plasma Magnetoshell Aerobraking, Aerocapture, and Entry System (AAES) not only reduces mass and cost while enabling significant new mission architectures, but also significantly reduces radiation exposures by decreasing trip times.

Manned Missions↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Intelligent Archive Testbed Incorporating Data Mining

Many significant advances have occurred during the last two decades in remote sensing instrumentation, computation, storage, and communication technology. A series of Earth observing satellites have been launched by U.S. and international agencies and have been operating and collecting global data on a regular basis. These advances have created a data rich environment for scientific research and applications. NASA s Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS) has been operational since August 1994 with support for pre-EOS data. Currently, EOSDIS supports all the EOS missions including Terra (1999), Aqua (2002), ICESat (2002) and Aura (2004). EOSDIS has been effectively capturing, processing and archiving several terabytes of standard data products each day. It has also been distributing these data products at a rate of several terabytes per day to a diverse and globally distributed user community (Ramapriyan et al. 2009). There are other NASA-sponsored data system activities including measurement-based systems such as the Ocean Data Processing System and the Precipitation Processing system, and several projects under the Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network (REASoN), Making Earth Science Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs), and the Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth-Sun System Science (ACCESS) programs. Together, these activities provide a rich set of resources constituting a value chain for users to obtain data at various levels ranging from raw radiances to interdisciplinary model outputs. The result has been a significant leap in our understanding of the Earth systems that all humans depend on for their enjoyment, livelihood, and survival. The trend in the community today is towards many distributed sets of providers of data and services. Despite this, visions for the future include users being able to locate, fuse and utilize data with location transparency and high degree of interoperability, and being able to convert data to information and usable knowledge in an efficient, convenient manner, aided significantly by automation (Ramapriyan et al. 2004; NASA 2005). We can look upon the distributed provider environment with capabilities to convert data to information and to knowledge as an Intelligent Archive in the Context of a Knowledge Building system (IA-KBS). Some of the key capabilities of an IA-KBS are: Virtual Product Generation, Significant Event Detection, Automated Data Quality Assessment, Large-Scale Data Mining, Dynamic Feedback Loop, and Data Discovery and Efficient Requesting (Ramapriyan et al. 2004).

Ramapriyan, H.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Ablation and Heating During Atmospheric Entry and Its Effect on Airburst Risk

Large meteoroids and asteroids entering the atmosphere endure tremendous heating from the shock heated air, and thereby lose a significant fraction of their mass during atmospheric entry a process known as ablation. The predicted evolution of the asteroids mass as it passes through the atmosphere can affect both the predicted energy deposition profile relevant to an airburst event, or the residual mass that strikes the ground in the case of an impact event. This presentation is divided roughly into two parts. In the first part, an overview of traditional models for heat transfer and ablation that are historically used in the meteor physics community is presented, and the validity in the asteroid entry regime discussed. Sensitivity analyses performed using the recently developed Fragment-Cloud Model (FCM) will be presented which show illustrate the range of sizes and entry parameters for which the predicted asteroid threat is most sensitive to the models for ablation and heat transfer. The second part of the presentation shall focus on recent work done under NASAs Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to develop new models for heat transfer and ablation using high-fidelity numerical simulation in concert with state-of-the-art experiments. Coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)radiation transport simulations preformed using the state-of-the-art entry modeling tools at NASA show that, for large meteoroids and asteroids, there can significant attenuation of the heat transfer to the surface (95 in some cases) by the products of ablation. In addition to the heat transfer, new models for the material response and ablation of asteroidal material have been developed [cite]. In the current work, we present finding from recent novel experiments performed in the arc jet facility at NASA Ames, which allows us to, in part, simulate the extreme environment experienced by the asteroid during entry. Briefly, the experimental set-up was comprised of a 1.5 conical article of machined H5 chondrite, which was exposed to a high-enthalpy flow resulting in approximately 4 kWcm2 of heating to the surface. A still frame capture from high-speed video taken during this experiment can be seen in Figure 1. In this figure, we can observe some of the major mechanisms for meteoroid ablation, such as melt flow, spallation (mechanical removal of material), and vaporization. Major findings from this, and other experiments will be discussed, as well progress on utilizing the data from the experiments to inform and develop improved models for ablation.

Asteroids↗

NASA NTRS2018

Public Engagement of Earth Science and Art Using Astronaut Photography

For over fifty years of crewed spaceflight missions, NASA astronauts have taken remarkable photographs of the Earth that offer various perspectives for viewing dynamic Earth processes. The International Space Station (ISS) today provides a unique platform to view and capture imagery of Earth at a variety of viewing angles, seasons, and times of day. Astronaut photos comprise a variable true-color (RGB - Red Green Blue) dataset taken with multiple handheld digital (and historically, film) cameras and lens types that differ from nadir-looking satellite-based remote sensing instruments with fixed temporal and spatial resolutions. The Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility within the Earth Science and Remote Sensing Unit at NASA’s Johnson Space Center supports the acquisition, analysis, and curation of astronaut photography of Earth’s surface and atmosphere. CEO’s website, the Gateway to Astronaut Photography of Earth (eol.jsc.nasa.gov), provides free public access to view, search, and download over three million images taken by astronauts from Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo missions to current ISS missions. Handheld images taken by astronauts from the ISS are used for scientific research and public engagement in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) fields, particularly earth science. While segments of the public are actively interested in STEM fields, there may be groups who are underexposed to and disinterested in earth science or are unaware of astronaut photography from the ISS. A broader public audience can be introduced to earth science, STEM fields, and ISS research through artistic or abstract photos of the Earth. Wide angle pictures taken of Earth have identifiable landforms and bodies of water, however zoomed in, very high resolution photos without obvious geographic reference can attract new viewing audiences on a purely aesthetic basis. The CEO Facility actively curates a collection of exceptional astronaut photos of Earth as art used to reach a wider population through increased digital products and outreach events. This continuously-updated collection feeds development of freely accessible and high-quality downloadable materials including scientific articles, videos, computer wallpapers, and social media content. These materials are presented with science-based information that augments the artistic qualities of the imagery, and facilitate connection between art-engaged or non-STEM audiences to the ISS research platform and the need for future innovative STEM research.

Meado, Andrea L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗

NASA NTRS2013

Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) Technology Development Overview

The successful flight of the Inflatable Reentry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE)-3 has further demonstrated the potential value of Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology. This technology development effort is funded by NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Game Changing Development Program (GCDP). This paper provides an overview of a multi-year HIAD technology development effort, detailing the projects completed to date and the additional testing planned for the future. The effort was divided into three areas: Flexible Systems Development (FSD), Mission Advanced Entry Concepts (AEC), and Flight Validation. FSD consists of a Flexible Thermal Protection Systems (FTPS) element, which is investigating high temperature materials, coatings, and additives for use in the bladder, insulator, and heat shield layers; and an Inflatable Structures (IS) element which includes manufacture and testing (laboratory and wind tunnel) of inflatable structures and their associated structural elements. AEC consists of the Mission Applications element developing concepts (including payload interfaces) for missions at multiple destinations for the purpose of demonstrating the benefits and need for the HIAD technology as well as the Next Generation Subsystems element. Ground test development has been pursued in parallel with the Flight Validation IRVE-3 flight test. A larger scale (6m diameter) HIAD inflatable structure was constructed and aerodynamically tested in the National Full-scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40ft by 80ft test section along with a duplicate of the IRVE-3 3m article. Both the 6m and 3m articles were tested with instrumented aerodynamic covers which incorporated an array of pressure taps to capture surface pressure distribution to validate Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model predictions of surface pressure distribution. The 3m article also had a duplicate IRVE-3 Thermal Protection System (TPS) to test in addition to testing with the Aerocover configuration. Both the Aerocovers and the TPS were populated with high contrast targets so that photogrammetric solutions of the loaded surface could be created. These solutions both refined the aerodynamic shape for CFD modeling and provided a deformed shape to validate structural Finite Element Analysis (FEA) models. Extensive aerothermal testing has been performed on the TPS candidates. This testing has been conducted in several facilities across the country. The majority of the testing has been conducted in the Boeing Large Core Arc Tunnel (LCAT). HIAD is continuing to mature testing methodology in this facility and is developing new test sample fixtures and control methodologies to improve understanding and quality of the environments to which the samples are subjected. Additional testing has been and continues to be performed in the NASA LaRC 8ft High Temperature Tunnel, where samples up to 2ft by 2ft are being tested over representative underlying structures incorporating construction features such as sewn seams and through-thickness quilting. With the successful completion to the IRVE-3 flight demonstration, mission planning efforts are ramping up on the development of the HIAD Earth Atmospheric Reenty Test (HEART) which will demonstrate a relevant scale vehicle in relevant environments via a large-scale aeroshell (approximately 8.5m) entering at orbital velocity (approximately 7km/sec) with an entry mass on the order of 4MT. Also, the Build to Print (BTP) hardware built as a risk mitigation for the IRVE-3 project to have a "spare" ready to go in the event of a launch vehicle delivery failure is now available for an additional sub-orbital flight experiment. Mission planning is underway to define a mission that can utilize this existing hardware and help the HIAD project further mature this technology.

Hughes, Stephen J.↗