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At least 613 records · Page 34

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Failure Behavior and Control-Based Mitigation for a Parallel Hybrid Propulsion System

NASA is pursuing research to advance Electrified Aircraft Propulsion (EAP) technologies that address fuel burn and emission reduction goals. EAP brings the potential for improved performance over the state of the art. However, for these systems to be practical and certifiable, they need to possess adequate robustness to adverse conditions including a variety of system failures that are not applicable to conventional turbofans today. Numerous EAP concepts interface gas turbine engines with an electrical power system that includes electric machines and sometimes electrical energy storage. The expansion of the powertrain increases the probability of encountering a failure and introduces new failure modes. Failures within the electrical power system may also impact the gas turbine engine(s) to which the electrical powertrain is coupled. This effort investigates failures originating in the electrical power system and their impact on the parallel hybrid propulsion system. Reversionary control strategies are also demonstrated to reduce the impact of the failures. Failure mitigation strategies were devised and employed in simulation. Various failure scenarios were simulated including those occurring during steady state operation, transients, and takeoff and landing scenarios. The timing of the failure and delay in failure identification and activation of mitigation strategies are noteworthy variables in the study. While the system remained stable throughout all failure scenarios, delays in failure identification could result in undesirable conditions such as increased operating temperatures and reduced stall margin. The results demonstrate successful mitigation of failures through reversionary control modes and help to generate confidence in the robustness of the conceptual parallel hybrid propulsion system.

Failure behavior↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Failure Behavior and Control Based Mitigation for a Parallel Hybrid Propulsion System

Failure behavior↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating GHG Mitigation Potential from ESPC Projects [Slides]

This report explores the impact of implemented ESPC projects on the projected greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in the U.S. buildings sector, and the associated projected annual cost savings and marginal abatement costs. It is important to investigate the role that energy retrofits can play in achieving GHG emission reduction targets given the use of ESPC by public agencies to reduce emissions from energy use in addition to the historical use of ESPC to to achieve cost/energy savings and ancillary benefits (e.g., addressing deferred maintenance, aging infrastructure, etc.). The analysis draws from LBNL’s eProject Builder (ePB) database, which contains approximately 3,000 energy retrofit projects implemented by energy service companies (ESCOs), mostly energy savings performance contract (ESPC) projects. This is the first report to model GHG emission reductions from ongoing ESPC projects in the U.S public sector based on ePB project data. It is intended for policymakers, federal, state and local government officials and other potential ESPC customers, the ESCO industry, researchers, and other energy policy professionals.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2021

Carbon Analytics for Net-zero Emissions Sustainable Cities

Consensus on carbon accounting approaches at city-level is lacking and analytic frameworks to systematically link carbon mitigation with the Sustainable Development Goals are limited. A new accounting approach anchored upon key physical provisioning systems can help to address these knowledge gaps and facilitate urban transitions.

Anu Ramaswami↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Impacts of Environmental Perturbations on Urban Biogenic Carbon Exchange in the Chicago Region

Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) quantification is critical for assessing city-level carbon emissions and sustainable urban development. While urban vegetation has the potential to provide environmental benefits, such as heat and carbon mitigation, the CO 2 exchange from biogenic sectors and its impact from the environmental perturbations are often overlooked. It is also challenging to simulate the plant functions in the complex urban terrain. This study presents a processed-based modeling approach to assess the biogenic carbon fluxes from the vegetated areas over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA) using the Weather Research and Forecast—Urban Biogenic Carbon exchange model. We investigate the change of CO 2 sink power in CMA under heatwaves and irrigation. The results indicate that the vegetation plays a significant role in the city's carbon portfolio and the landscaping management has the potential to reduce carbon emissions significantly. Furthermore, based on the competing mechanisms in the biogenic carbon balance identified in this study, we develop a novel Environmental Benefit Score metrics framework to identify the vulnerability and mitigation measures associated with nature-based solutions (NbS) within CMA. By using the generalized portable framework and our science-policy confluence analysis presented in this study, global cities can maximize the effectiveness of NbS and accelerate carbon neutrality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Preheating and premixing effects on NO x emissions in a high-pressure axially staged combustor

NO x emissions remain a primary concern for modern and future gas turbines, particularly as we progress towards a net-zero carbon future. It is critical to identify novel strategies to mitigate environmental pollutants for both modern turbines operated on natural gas and future turbines projected to use carbon-free fuels (such as hydrogen). In the current study, NO x emissions of a reacting methane-air jet in a vitiated crossflow are experimentally investigated in a model axially staged combustor at 5 atm. The combustion products from the main stage combustor flow into the axial stage at temperatures ranging from 1580 to 1650 °C. The axial stage contains a reacting jet in crossflow, which provides an overall temperature rise ranging from 50 to 220 °C to generate exit temperatures similar to gas turbine engines. The focus of this paper is to explore the effects of flame liftoff and ignition timescales on the NO x contribution of this secondary jet. This is done by varying the premixed level and preheat temperature of the axial jet. The effects are explored at different momentum flux ratios (J), jet equivalence ratios (φ jet ), exit temperatures (T exit ), and main stage (headend) temperatures (T HE ). High-speed CH* chemiluminescence imaging is employed for each test case to determine the flame stabilization point. For a given temperature rise and combustor exit temperature, an increase in ignition delay was observed with a decrease in jet temperature. This provided a NO x benefit, particularly for jets that are injected at or close to an ignitable mixture fraction. Similarly, the coaxial injector caused a significant ignition delay compared to the fully premixed injector; this also led to a NO x benefit. Overall, the results show that a thermally driven delay in the axial stage provides a greater NO x reduction than a mixing delay.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of underground thermal storage integrated dual-source heat pump systems

The increasing demand for electricity stresses the existing electric grids. Buildings consume 73% of all U.S. electricity and are responsible for 30% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) in building heating/cooling systems, which consume considerable electricity, can mitigate the challenges to electric grids. Here, this study reports on a novel thermal energy storage device integrated heat pump system to reshape the building electricity demand profile while maintaining thermal comfort. The annual performance of the proposed system has been evaluated through a dynamic system simulation with high fidelity in the Modelica platform. The dynamic model of the novel hybrid component named ‘dual purpose underground thermal battery’ was developed and validated. It was then incorporated into the system model. Given a time-of-use tariff, a rule-based control strategy was designed to shift the electric demand and switch the heat pump source for a typical single-family house in different climate zones of the United States. The system performance of the new TES-integrated dual-source heat pump was compared with that of a conventional air-source heat pump system. The results indicate that the proposed system can reduce the annual HVAC electricity cost by up to 52% while saving 45.2% on electricity consumption. In the Northern areas, the annual peak load of the HVAC system can be reduced by 64.9%. However, this reduction is less in the Southern areas as the system’s higher efficiency in winter dominates the overall energy-saving potential.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate-Driven Divergence in Biophysical and Economic Impacts of Agrivoltaics

Increasing global demands for food and energy necessitate innovative land-use solutions. Agrivoltaics, colocating solar photovoltaics with agriculture, shows promise, but its widespread adoption faces complex biophysical and economic trade-offs in a changing climate. Here, we develop an integrated biophysical-economic modeling framework to quantify how agrivoltaics affect biophysical and economic impacts across the Midwestern United States under both current and project climate conditions. We find strong regional divergences driven by climate gradients. In the humid eastern Midwest, solar panel shading limits photosynthesis, leading to reduced yields (maize -24%; soybean -16%) and lower farmers' profitability (maize -16%; soybean -2%) compared to conventional agriculture. Conversely, in the semiarid western region, shading alleviates heat and water stress, moderating yield reductions for maize (-12%) and even boosting soybean yields (+6%), resulting in improved economic returns (-6% for maize; +9% for soybean), for a scenario with 33% photovoltaic ground coverage ratio. Although agrivoltaics generate substantial electrical energy across all regions, high upfront installation costs challenge solar developers compared to standalone solar photovoltaics. However, our analysis identifies “win-win” opportunities where soybean-based agrivoltaics in the semiarid region produce economic benefits for both farmers and solar developers, highlighting the necessity for region-specific designs tailored to local climate conditions. Critically, future climate projections indicate eastward expansion of semiarid conditions, broadening areas where agrivoltaics can mitigate crop yield penalties (even boosting yield) and improve overall profitability, especially under high-emission scenarios. The results provide a mechanistic and economically integrated understanding essential for developing evidence-based and region-specific strategies to scale agrivoltaics in a changing climate.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with ACT and DESI luminous red galaxies

Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) photons scatter off the free-electron gas in galaxies and clusters, allowing us to use the CMB as a backlight to probe the gas in and around low-redshift galaxies. The thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, sourced by hot electrons in high-density environments, measures the thermal pressure of the target objects, shedding light on halo thermodynamics and galaxy formation, and providing a path toward understanding the baryon distribution around cosmic structures. We use a combination of high-resolution CMB maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and photometric luminous red galaxy catalogs from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument to measure the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich signal in four redshift bins from 𝑧 = 0.4 to 𝑧 = 1.2, with a combined detection significance of 19⁢𝜎 when stacking on the fiducial CMB Compton-𝑦 map. We discuss possible sources of contamination, finding that residual dust emission associated with the target galaxies is important and limits current analyses. We discuss several mitigation strategies and quantify the residual modeling uncertainty. Furthermore, this work complements closely related measurements of the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich and weak lensing of the same galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Autonomous Energy Management Software System for Small Commercial Buildings in Support of Decarbonization (Abstract)

The primary goal for the project is to develop and validate an autonomous energy management software (AEMS) system that will continuously optimize small commercial building operations by minimizing energy consumption and cost, providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. The work will leverage vast experience of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) research and development staff who have over two decades of experience in developing and successfully transferring software technologies to the private sector. This solution will be jointly developed with Intellimation LLC who plans to use it to scale their building energy efficiency offering. The project plan will include collaboratively working with Intellimation to package a set of solutions into the AEMS system, validate and demonstrate their capability, and value proposition through field demonstrations. If the deployment of the AEMS system optimizes RTUs’ set points, schedules, setbacks and optimal start and results in energy consumption reduction of 20%, the technical potential savings is approximately 675 trillion Btus of site energy savings and 2,000 trillion Btus of source energy. It will also result in carbon reductions of approximately 2.4 MMTCO2 and contribute to the climate change mitigation plans of many cities and states across the United States. Additional cost savings and emissions reduction are possible from management of peak electricity demand. The primary outcome will be an AEMS system that can be deployed at scale on small commercial buildings to improve operating efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conflicts of Greens’ in Renewable Energy Landscapes: Case Studies and a Planning Framework

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) through renewable energy deployment is a goal for many cities and nations to mitigate the effects of a rapidly changing climate while securing energy needs. Given national and state level policies on green energy to achieve GHG reduction targets, localities are considering utility-scale renewable energy (USRE) facilities on remote lands, rural areas, oceans, coastal waters and large rivers to meet the energy needs for urban residents and industries. Although these USRE facilities generate much “greener” electricity than fossil fuel power plants, locating them can pose conflicts with wildlife, including endangered, threatened and/or special status species, and the habitats that support wildlife populations (Brunette et al., 2013; Gasparatos et al. 2016; Mulvaney 2017), which lead to a “Conflict of Greens” (Ko et al., 2011). In addition to ecological impacts, conflicts over social and cultural resources in local communities lead to concerns over environmental justice, in this context “energy justice,” where negative environmental, social, and economic impacts of energy projects fall more heavily upon marginalized, vulnerable, or indigenous communities. The Pacific Rim region is a center of major and growing economies, and it has become a battlefield for competing “green” objectives. In addition to progressive renewable energy goals, such as in California, Hawaii, and Taiwan, countries around the Pacific Rim have the majority of the growth in manufacturing of wind and solar energy devices and also some of the highest levels of renewables deployment with China, India, and the US leading the way in wind and solar installations. Developing renewable energy source in the ocean such as offshore wind, tidal, and wave energy, are beginning to add to this mix. Given this challenge, the APRU SCL energy working group provides six case studies that address questions about the “Conflict of Greens” across the Pacific Rim including South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States (California, Hawaii, and Massachusetts). The literature review highlights the emerging ecological, social, and economic aspects of conflicts over siting renewables on the landscape. Using case studies, we examine the trial and errors in least-conflict spatial planning, data collection and analysis, public participation in decision-making, mitigation, social planning for energy transitions, and multi-scalar approaches. Lastly, we recommend interdisciplinary policy, planning, and design actions for sustainable energy landscapes across the Pacific Rim and beyond.

green versus green, renewable energy↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Model to Determine Snowfall over Land by Microwave Radiometry

Because microwave brightness temperatures emitted by snow covered surfaces are highly variable, snowfall above such surfaces is difficult to observe using window channels that occur at low frequencies (v less than 100 GHz). Furthermore, at frequencies v less than or equal to 37 GHz, sensitivity to liquid hydrometeors is dominant. These problems are mitigated at high frequencies (v greater than 100 GHz) where water vapor screens the surface emission and sensitivity to frozen hydrometeors is significant. However the scattering effect of snowfall in the atmosphere at those higher frequencies is also impacted by water vapor in the upper atmosphere. This work describes the methodology and results of physically-based retrievals of snow falling over land surfaces. The theory of scattering by randomly oriented dry snow particles at high microwave frequencies appears to be better described by regarding snow as a concatenation of equivalent ice spheres rather than as a sphere with the effective dielectric constant of an air-ice mixture. An equivalent sphere snow scattering model was validated against high frequency attenuation measurements. Satellite-based high frequency observations from an Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B) instrument during the March 5-6, 2001 New England blizzard were used to retrieve snowfall over land. Vertical distributions of snow, temperature and relative humidity profiles were derived from the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Those data were applied and modified in a radiative transfer model that derived brightness temperatures consistent with the AMSU-B observations. The retrieved snowfall distribution was validated with radar reflectivity measurements obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) ground-based radar network.

Skofronick-Jackson, G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Requirements and Conceptual Design of Off-gas Systems for the Reprocessing of Metallic Fuels

An assessment has been conducted to determine how key regulations regarding volatile radionuclide emissions to the atmosphere may apply to the off-gas streams associated with electrochemical reprocessing. The scope of this assessment was based upon a generic electrochemical reprocessing scheme with a throughput rate of 200 MTIHM/y applied to metallic fuel discharged from a sodium fast reactor (SFR), but the findings are able to be translated to other advanced nuclear scenarios as merited. Air dispersion modeling was performed using the EPA CAP-88 model and evaluated the uncontrolled decontamination factors (DFs) that would be required to achieve regulatory compliance with the dose-based limits set forth by EPA regulation 40 CFR 190.10(a). These DFs were compared to those required by fuel cycle–based limits set forth by EPA regulation 40 CFR 190.10(b). Two theoretical sites with disparate climatological conditions were selected for air dispersion modeling (Idaho and Tennessee). The radionuclides modeled included 3 H, 85 Kr, 129 I, and selected alpha-emitting transuranic isotopes (referred to here as 239 Pu-TRU <1y ). It was found that the fuel cycle-based limits in 40 CFR 190.10(b) are most restrictive for 85 Kr and 239 Pu-TRU <1y , with DFs of 3 and 6.1E+09, respectively. The dose-based limit as derived from 40 CFR 190.10(a) could require mitigation of tritium in some scenarios, with an estimated DF of about 3 for the reference scenarios. The fuel cycle-based limit for 129 I resulted in a DF of about 240 for the reference scenario. The need for iodine mitigation based on dose to the public depended upon the physical form of iodine as either particulate or vapor-phase species. Emission of iodine from the facility as a vapor necessitated DFs of about 2 but emission as a particulate would require DFs >6,000 to meet thyroid dose-based limits. Effects of physical form on needed iodine mitigation are significant, but the understanding of speciation of iodine both during electrochemical reprocessing and after release to the atmosphere is limited. The electrochemical processing unit operations were evaluated to identify potential release points for the volatile radionuclides and to assess the potential for retention of the radionuclides within the process (thus decreasing the need for mitigation). Mitigation strategies for 3 H, 85 Kr, 129 I, and 239 Pu-TRU <1y were identified. In all cases, there are reasonably achievable pathways to regulatory compliance, although in some cases additional R&D is merited to verify the chemical speciation of these isotopes and to develop and demonstrate potential treatment technologies for this application. Whether or not additional off-gas controls (beyond common operations such as HEPA filtration and oxygen and moisture control) are needed for any of these regulated or volatile radionuclides depends on the (a) type of facility (NRC-regulated or DOE), (b) used fuel process rate, (c) used fuel burnup and composition, (d) speciation and retention of volatile radionuclides in the process and in the cell gas cleanup system, (e) site-specific parameters such as location, meteorology, stack height, and site boundaries, and (f) levels of conservatism and safety factors used in assessing compliance to air emissions regulations. Performance of this assessment revealed several areas where information is lacking or additional research is required in order to better determine if or what kinds of off-gas control might be needed. First, and most significantly, the understanding of the chemical speciation and physical form and partitioning of iodine during electrochemical processing operations is lacking and prevents the ability to accurately assess the potential iodine mitigation requirements. Future research in this area should be multifaceted and include thermodynamic modeling of iodine speciation in different process steps, experiments to quantify the kinetics of vapor-phase and melt-phase transitions, bench-scale experiments to determine the potential chemical and physical form of iodine emissions from the electrorefining process, and verification of iodine behavior with experiments utilizing operational facilities. Similarly, an improved understanding of iodine behavior in the environment after release from the facility stack will be required to refine dose estimations, as particulate and vapor-phase emissions result in significantly different doses to the MEI.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global and Regional Radiative Forcing from 20 Reductions in BC, OC and SO4 an HTAP2 Multi-Model Study

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20% reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4/ from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8mW/sq m/Tg for BC, between -2.4 and -17.9mW/sq m/Tg for OA and between -3.6 and -10.3W/sq m/Tg for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20% emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25% when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37% since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Low-carbon fuels for spark-ignited engines: A comparative study of compressed natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas on a CFR engine with exhaust gas recirculation

Decades of work on low-carbon fuels have established their potential for substantial emissions reductions; however, their adoption is still limited by infrastructure concerns and engine efficiency deficits. As infrastructures have begun to evolve, research on strategies that maximize engine efficiency through interactions with fuel properties must also now take center place. This paper compares the performance, emissions, and combustion characteristics of two forefront low-carbon fuels: compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in a cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine over a range of compression ratios and engine loads. The effects of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), end-gas auto-ignition, and a novel combustion control tool, the combustion intensity metric (CIM), were also evaluated at different stoichiometric engine operating conditions. In comparison to LPG, CNG operation demonstrated an extended knock-free regime, allowing engine operation at higher engine loads and compression ratios, but LPG operation exhibited enhanced combustion characteristics with higher peak pressures and faster apparent heat release rates (AHRR). LPG operation achieved higher brake thermal efficiencies and lower equivalent CO 2 emissions compared to CNG operation at the tested engine loads and compression ratios. LPG demonstrated significantly higher EGR tolerance limits compared to CNG, with a maximum of 28% EGR rate, compared to 23% for CNG. This improved EGR dilution tolerance was responsible for a 90% reduction in NOx emissions for LPG compared to a maximum of 70% with CNG. EGR dilution also exhibited more effective knock mitigation potential with LPG, suppressing knock intensity values by up to 98% and transitioning the engine operation towards normal combustion from heavy knocking conditions. As a result, the CIM was found to decrease burn durations and improve the quality of combustion by controlling the desired fraction of end-gas auto-ignition.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from quantitative models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as those about technology and infrastructure deployment, and global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require model designers to balance coverage and resolution (i.e., breadth versus depth). Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses with less resolution than models that focus on a single sector's energy use. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers projecting prices using internal calculations for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This globally comprehensive model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy of the United States: Pathways to Net-Zero Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050, which the White House released in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide climate change mitigation discussions and strategy development for decades. Unlike GCAM, sectoral models focus on a portion of the energy sector and with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects electricity system capacity expansion and operation with high-fidelity representation of emerging technologies for deep decarbonization, such as variable renewable energy and energy storage, and integration of these technologies into the electric grid. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices, with a focus on adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of electrification and energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies in the United States. The integrated multisector and sector-specific modeling approaches represented by GCAM and these sectoral models are complementary. The integrated multisector approach calculates energy pricing and resource allocation within the model, which is important for consistency when future conditions substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios. The sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and trade-offs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and it addresses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Current and Future PM2.5 Air Quality in China Under CMIP6 and DPEC Emission Scenarios

The latest scenarios for the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) provide opportunities to explore future climate and air pollution mitigation pathways with socioeconomic features. However, to what extent inadequate consideration of region-specific policies in the CMIP6 scenarios would affect regional air quality projections is still not clear. Here, we simulated China’s future PM2.5 concentrations and compositions with local policy-based scenarios and the original CMIP6 datasets, for the first time estimating future air quality differences induced by the lack of local pollution control policies in the CMIP6 scenarios. We found that the CMIP6-driven projections overestimate major chemical aerosols by 10% – 70% in 2015 and fail to capture the rapid PM2.5 concentration decline during 2015–2019. Near-term differences further lead to 43% – 49% (5 – 9 µg/m3) PM2.5 overpredictions in 2050 in CMIP6 scenarios compared with policy-based mitigation scenarios. Our study demonstrates the indispensable influences of local policies on regional analyses and suggests that the research community should incorporate more region-specific information in future scenario designs.

Cheng, Jing↗