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At least 613 records · Page 34

A Spurious Jump in the Satellite Record: Has Antarctic Sea Ice Expansion Been Overestimated?

Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid- 2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations.

Cryosphere↗

Composite Stiffened Panels: Part I - Stiffness, Thermal Expansion, and Thermal Bending Formulation for Finite Element Analysis

A method is presented for formulating stiffness terms and thermal coefficients of fiber-reinforced composite, stiffened panels for input to finite element analysis (FEA). The method is robust enough to handle panels with general cross sectional shapes, including those which are unsymmetric and/or unbalanced. New thermal coefficients are introduced to quantify panel response from through-the-thickness temperature gradients. Equations are defined for stiffness, thermal expansion, and thermal bending that consider the full complement of membrane, bending, membrane-bending coupling, and transverse shear behavior. A technique of implementing this capability with a single plane of shell finite elements using the MSC/NASTRAN(TradeMark) FEA program is revealed. Finally, an example of a composite, hat-stiffened panel is included to demonstrate errors that occur when an unsymmetric panel is symmetrically formulated as traditionally done. These erroneous values and the correct ones produced from the presented method are listed for the panel's stiffness matrices, thermal expansion and bending vectors, and the forces and moments that are thermally induced from in-plane and through-the-thickness temperature gradients.

Craig S Collier↗

Thermal Expansion Studies of Selected High Temperature Thermoelectric Materials

Radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) generate electrical power by converting the heat released from the nuclear decay of radioactive isotopes (typically plutonium-238) into electricity using a thermoelectric converter. RTGs have been successfully used to power a number of space missions and have demonstrated their reliability over an extended period of time (tens of years) and are compact, rugged, radiation resistant, scalable, and produce no noise, vibration or torque during operation. System conversion efficiency for state-of-practice RTGs is about 6% and specific power less than or equal to 5.1 W/kg. Higher specific power would result in more on-board power for the same RTG mass, or less RTG mass for the same on-board power. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been leading, under the advanced thermoelectric converter (ATEC) project, the development of new high-temperature thermoelectric materials and components for integration into advanced, more efficient RTGs. Thermoelectric materials investigated to date include skutterudites, the Yb14MnSb11 compound, and SiGe alloys. The development of long-lived thermoelectric couples based on some of these materials has been initiated and is assisted by a thermo-mechanical stress analysis to ensure that all stresses under both fabrication and operation conditions will be within yield limits for those materials. Several physical parameters are needed as input to this analysis. Among those parameters, the coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) is critically important. Thermal expansion coefficient measurements of several thermoelectric materials under consideration for ATEC are described in this paper. The stress response at the interfaces in material stacks subjected to changes in temperature is discussed, drawing on work from the literature and project-specific tools developed here. The degree of CTE mismatch and the associated effect on the formation of stress is highlighted.

silicon germanium↗

Blunt-Body Aerothermodynamic Database from High-Enthalpy CO2 Testing in an Expansion Tunnel

An extensive database of heating, pressure, and flow field measurements on a 70-deg sphere-cone blunt body geometry in high-enthalpy, CO2 flow has been generated through testing in an expansion tunnel. This database is intended to support development and validation of computational tools and methods to be employed in the design of future Mars missions. The test was conducted in an expansion tunnel in order to avoid uncertainties in the definition of free stream conditions noted in previous studies performed in reflected shock tunnels. Data were obtained across a wide range of test velocity/density conditions that produced various physical phenomena of interest, including laminar and transitional/turbulent boundary layers, non-reacting to completely dissociated post-shock gas composition and shock-layer radiation. Flow field computations were performed at the test conditions and comparisons were made with the experimental data. Based on these comparisons, it is recommended that computational uncertainties on surface heating and pressure, for laminar, reacting-gas environments can be reduced to +/-10% and +/-5%, respectively. However, for flows with turbulence and shock-layer radiation, there were not sufficient validation-quality data obtained in this study to make any conclusions with respect to uncertainties, which highlights the need for further research in these areas.

Hollis, Brian R.↗

Asymmetric Expansion of the Youngest Galactic Supernova Remnant G1.9+0.3

The youngest Galactic supernova remnant (SNR) G1.9+0.3, produced by a (probable) SN Ia that exploded approximately 1900 CE, is strongly asymmetric at radio wavelengths, much brighter in the north, but bilaterally symmetric in X-rays. We present the results of X-ray expansion measurements that illuminate the origin of the radio asymmetry. We confirm the mean expansion rate (2011-2015) of 0.58% per yr, but large spatial variations are present. Using the nonparametric 'Demons' method, we measure the velocity field throughout the entire SNR, finding that motions vary by a factor of 5, from 0.''09 to 0.''44 per yr. The slowest shocks are at the outer boundary of the bright northern radio rim, with velocities v(sub s) as low as 3600 km per sec (for an assumed distance of 8.5 kpc), much less than v(sub s) = 12,000-13,000 km per sec along the X-ray-bright major axis. Such strong deceleration of the northern blast wave most likely arises from the collision of SN ejecta with a much denser than average ambient medium there. This asymmetric ambient medium naturally explains the radio asymmetry. In several locations, significant morphological changes and strongly nonradial motions are apparent. The spatially integrated X-ray flux continues to increase with time. Based on Chandra observations spanning 8.3 yr, we measure its increase at 1.3% +/- 0.8% per yr. The SN ejecta are likely colliding with the asymmetric circumstellar medium ejected by the SN progenitor prior to its explosion.

ISM: individual objects (G1.9+0.3) ISM: individual↗

An X-Ray and Radio Study of the Varying Expansion Velocities in Tycho's Supernova Remnant

We present newly obtained X-ray and radio observations of Tycho's supernova remnant using Chandra and the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array in 2015 and 2013/14, respectively. When combined with earlier epoch observations by these instruments, we now have time baselines for expansion measurements of the remnant of 12-15 years in the X-rays and 30 years in the radio. The remnant's large angular size allows for proper motion measurements at many locations around the periphery of the blast wave. Consistent with earlier measurements, we find a clear gradient in the expansion velocity of the remnant, despite its round shape. The proper motions on the western and southwestern sides of the remnant are about a factor of two higher than those in the east and northeast. We showed in an earlier work that this is related to an offset of the explosion site from the geometric center of the remnant due to a density gradient in the ISM, and using our refined measurements reported here, we find that this offset is approximately 23″ toward the northeast. An explosion center offset in such a circular remnant has implications for searches for progenitor companions in other remnants.

dust↗

The Radial Speed-Expansion Speed Relation for Earth-Directed CMEs

Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the main drivers of major geomagnetic storms. Therefore, a good estimate of the disturbance arrival time at Earth is required for space weather predictions. The STEREO and SOHO spacecraft were viewing the Sun in near quadrature during January 2010 to September 2012, providing a unique opportunity to study the radial speed (V (sub rad)) to expansion speed(V (sub exp)) relationship of Earth-directed CMEs. This relationship is useful in estimating the V (sub rad) of Earth-directed CMEs, when they are observed from Earth view only. We selected 19 Earth-directed CMEs observed by the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO)/C3 coronagraph on SOHO and the Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI)/COR2 coronagraph on STEREO during January 2010 to September 2012. We found that of the three tested geometric CME models the full ice-cream cone model of the CME describes best the V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship, as suggested by earlier investigations. We also tested the prediction accuracy of the empirical shock arrival (ESA) model proposed by Gopalswamy et al.(2005a), while estimating the CME propagation speeds from the CME expansion speeds. If we use STEREO observations to estimate the CME width required to calculate the V (sub rad) from the V (sub exp) measurements, the mean absolute error (MAE) of the shock arrival times of the ESA model is 8.4 hours. If the LASCO measurements are used to estimate the CME width, the MAE still remains below 17 hours. Therefore, by using the simple V (sub rad) to V (sub exp) relationship to estimate the V (sub rad) of the Earth-directed CMEs, the ESA model is able to predict the shock arrival times with accuracy comparable to most other more complex models.

Makela, P.↗

Thermal Expansion from Stochastic Nonlinear Acoustic Fields

The methods of stochastic mechanics are applied to nonlinear acoustic fields generated by random acoustic radiation sources associated with oscillating lattice sites in nonlinear lattices. The assumption of stochastically independent zero-point and temperature-dependent acoustic fields leads to expressions of the thermodynamic internal and Helmholtz free energies per unit mass in terms of modal energies per unit mass that account for the nonlinearity of the propagation modes. The thermodynamic state functions canonically transform to the familiar results of a system of quantized, simple harmonic oscillators in the linear field limit. The thermal expansion coefficient, derived from the Helmholtz free energy per unit mass, is obtained as a sum of the zero-point modal nonlinearity parameters, weighted by temperature-dependent, modal heat capacities. The relationship is fully anharmonic, in contrast to commonly used quasi-harmonic models, and predicts with excellent agreement the experimentally observed null thermal expansion of vitreous silica at the ‘cross-over’ temperature corresponding to the balance between long wavelength modes that contribute negative nonlinearity parameters to the modal sum and short wavelength modes that contribute positive nonlinearity parameters.

Cantrell, John H., Jr.↗

Modeling Interplanetary Expansion and Deformation of CMEs with ANTEATR-PARADE II: Sensitivity to Input Parameters

Space weather predictions related to coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires understanding how a CME is initiated and how its properties change as it propagates. While some parameters can be measured relatively easily near the Sun, others are much harder to disentangle from projected coronagraph images. Most predictions have been limited to the arrival time of a CME and include little to no information about the CME's internal properties. ANTEATR-PARADE represents the most thorough description of the interplanetary evolution of CMEs in a highly computationally-efficient model. (Kay & Nieves-Chinchilla, 2020) presents the derivation of this model, where we have added an elliptical cross section to the original arrival time model ANTEATR and introduced internal magnetic forces that, combined with the drag, can alter the shape of the central axis and cross section. ANTEATR-PARADE results include the transit time of CMEs, as well as the shape and size, propagation and expansion velocities, density, and magnetic field properties upon impact. We determine the dependence of each output on each of the ANTEATR-PARADE input parameters. For a fast CME, we see that the transit time and propagation velocity depend most strongly on inputs that modify the drag force whereas the inputs affecting the magnetic forces determine the expansion of the CME. We extend to other CMEs and _nd that the sensitivities change with CME scale. Magnetic forces become more important for an average CME whereas the drag force becomes more important for an extreme CME.

Coronal mass ejections↗

Thermal Vacuum and Vibration Testing of the Differential Thermal Expansion Thermal Switch

The Extended Stroke, Reverse Operation, Differential Thermal Expansion (DTE) Thermal Switch (TS) for Extreme Variable Environments uses materials with both positive and negative coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) arranged in concentric cylinders so that the TS operates passively, opening a gap between interfaces to create a low thermal contact when cold, and closing the gap between interfaces to create a high thermal contact when hot. This paper details the testing of the TS at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) including the vibration (vibe) test, pre-vibe thermal vacuum (t-vac) cycle test, post-vibe t-vac cycle test, and long duration t-vac cycle test. The data collected from the pre- and post-vibe tests are compared to show the impact of the vibe test on performance. The data collected from the long duration test is used to calculate the total thermal contact conductance through the TS interfaces for both ‘on’ (TS closed, during hot plateau) and ‘off’ (TS open, during cold plateau) configurations, and the turndown ratio is also calculated. Challenges experienced throughout testing are also discussed.

Thermal control technology↗

Thermal Vacuum and Vibration Testing of the Differential Thermal Expansion Thermal Switch

The Extended Stroke, Reverse Operation, Differential Expansion Thermal Switch for Extreme Variable Environments uses materials with both positive and negative coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) arranged in concentric cylinders so that the thermal switch (TS) operates passively, opening a gap between interfaces to create a low thermal contact when cold, and closing the gap between interfaces to create a high thermal contact when hot. This paper details the testing of the TS at Marshall Space Flight Center including the pre-vibe thermal vacuum cycle test, vibration test, post-vibe thermal vacuum cycle test, and long duration thermal vacuum cycle test. The pre- and post-vibe thermal cycle and the long duration cycle test tested to hot and cold plateau initial temperatures of 40 °C, and -173 °C, respectively. The pre- and post-vibe tests required plateau holds of at least 2 hours, whereas the long duration cycle test required plateau holds of at least 20 hours. The tests each used a rate of temperature change of < 2 °C/min when transitioning between plateaus. The data collected from each thermal test is compared to show the operation of the TS both before and after the vibration test to GEVS levels, and throughout the long duration cycle test. From the data collected, the total conductance through the TS interfaces is calculated for both on (TS closed – during hot plateau) and off (TS open – during cold plateau) configurations, and the turndown ratio is also calculated. Challenges and lessons learned from the testing are also discussed.

thermal control technology↗

Thermal Vacuum and Vibration Testing of the Differential Thermal Expansion Thermal Switch

The Extended Stroke, Reverse Operation, Differential Thermal Expansion (DTE) Thermal Switch (TS) for Extreme Variable Environments uses materials with both positive and negative coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) arranged in concentric cylinders so that the TS operates passively, opening a gap between interfaces to create a low thermal contact when cold, and closing the gap between interfaces to create a high thermal contact when hot. This paper details the testing of the TS at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) including the vibration (vibe) test, pre-vibe thermal vacuum (t-vac) cycle test, post-vibe t-vac cycle test, and long duration t-vac cycle test. The data collected from the pre- and post-vibe tests are compared to show the impact of the vibe test on performance. The data collected from the long duration test is used to calculate the total thermal contact conductance through the TS interfaces for both ‘on’ (TS closed, during hot plateau) and ‘off’ (TS open, during cold plateau) configurations, and the turndown ratio is also calculated. Challenges experienced throughout testing are also discussed.

Thermal control technology↗

Tunable negative coefficient thermal expansion materials and composites

The present disclosure is directed to variable composition ceramics. Zr (2−x) Hf (x) WP 2 O 12 and Hf 2 WP 2 O 12 exhibit large negative thermal expansion that is linear over a large temperature range up to at least 900° C., These new ceramic material particles may be mixed with polymers to make a composite suitable for use in backsheets for photovoltaic modules or in other applications. The thermal expansion coefficient of the composite can be tailored to match that of the solar cell in order to reduce stress resulting from daily thermal cycling.

Gordon, Margaret Ellen↗

3D spherical functional expansion tallies in Serpent 2 Monte Carlo code

This work extends the application of functional expansion tallies to 3D spherical geometries. The 3D Zernike polynomials are set as an orthonormal polynomials basis for the functional reconstruction. The study describes the construction of the complete set of polynomials, a natural expansion of the spherical harmonics polynomials where 3D Zernike moments can be evaluated as a linear combination of the geometrical moments. The 3D Zernike polynomials formulation and the computational approach implemented in Serpent 2 are presented and tested through the Godiva model from the ICSBEP criticality benchmark test cases. The implementation results are in agreement with a reference solution described in a fine-resolution mesh, enhancing also the performance and memory demand. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Transmission Interface Limits for High-Spatial Resolution Capacity Expansion Modeling

Large-scale capacity expansion models typically rely on estimates of the power transfer limits between modeled zones. Accurate estimation of these interface transfer limits (ITLs) requires modeling the underlying transmission network. Here we expand on a maximum flow optimization method that uses linearized power flow to estimate transfer limits. We apply this method to a data set of the U.S. transmission network to estimate ITLs between U.S. counties. By calculating ITLs using different subsets of the network, we evaluate how the size of the network used in the estimation affects the results. The results show diminishing returns to ITL accuracy after six hops, suggesting that a network subset can reasonably be used to approximate ITLs. The county-level estimates produced in this study will support more spatially resolved capacity expansion modeling and will help inform policy making at local and national levels.

capacity planning↗

Pion Nucleon Scattering in BCHPT Combined with 1/Nc Expansion

Pion nucleon scattering has played a crucial role in advancing our understanding of the low-energy regime of strong interactions. This dissertation presents the development of a new theoretical framework that combines Baryon Chiral Perturbation Theory (BChPT) with the 1/Nc Expansion to analyze pion nucleon scattering. The resulting effective Lagrangian incorporates both chiral and spin-flavor symmetries. Scattering amplitudes are calculated up to the one-loop level (NNLO), which includes four tree-level Feynman diagrams and 45 non-zero loop diagrams. The effective Lagrangian is renormalized at the one-loop level. With spin-3/2 baryons naturally included, the framework demonstrates strong convergence at higher energies. The NNLO pion nucleon scattering amplitude shows good agreement with experimental data from the SAID database. This novel approach, BChPT combined with 1/Nc Expansion, demonstrates substantial predictive power at higher energies where other low-energy theories fall short, achieving the goals of this combined framework. The contribution from loop diagrams is essential for achieving good agreement with the data, highlighting the importance of conducting the calculation up to NNLO. Extracted values for physically measurable quantities agree reasonably well with independently extracted values, underscoring the robustness of the theory.

Jayakodige, Dulitha [Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA (U↗

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Phase transformations and thermal expansion coefficients of unirradiated U-X wt.% Zr (X = 6, 10, 20, 30) measured via neutron diffraction

This work characterizes the crystallographic evolution of unirradiated U-X wt.% Zr (X = 6, 10, 20, 30) while cooling from equilibration, single phase γ-U-Zr, at 900 °C to ambient temperature using time-of-flight neutron diffraction. The β-U phase was unobserved during cooling at 1 °C/min in all alloys. All alloys followed the phase transformation pathway of γ-U-Zr→γ-U-Zr+α-U→α-U +δ-UZr2 with an observed miscibility gap in γ-U-Zr. The α-U and δ-UZr2 transformation took place simultaneously in the U-30 wt.% Zr sample. These findings strengthen the need to re-approach the U-Zr phase diagram in entirety. Bulk volumetric CTEs agree well with published data, strengthening the quantification of lattice-specific CTEs reported in this study. A compositionally dependent discontinuity in thermal expansion, increasing in magnitude with decreasing U content, occurs during the γ-U-Zr→α-U+δ-UZr2 transformation. The γ-U-Zr lattice parameter was measured to have a compositional dependency.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗