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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

ASPIRE Aerodynamic Models and Flight Performance

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiments (ASPIRE) project waslaunched to develop the capability for testing supersonic parachutes at Mars-relevant conditions.Three initial parachute tests, targeted as a risk-reduction activity for NASA's upcomingMars2020 mission, successfully tested two candidate parachute designs and provided valuabledata on parachute inflation, forces, and aerodynamic behavior. Design of the flight tests dependedon flight mechanics simulations which in turn required aerodynamic models for the payload, andthe parachute. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to generate these models preflightand are compared against the flight data after the tests. For the payload, the reconstructedaerodynamic behavior is close to the pre-flight predictions, but the uncertainties in thereconstructed data are high due to the low dynamic pressures and accelerations during the flightperiod of comparison. For the parachute, the predicted time to inflation agrees well with the preflightmodel; the peak aerodynamic force and the steady state drag on the parachute are withinthe bounds of the pre-flight models, even as the models over-predict the parachute drag atsupersonic Mach numbers. Notably, the flight data does not show the transonic drag decreasepredicted by the pre-flight model. The ASPIRE flight tests provide previously unavailablevaluable data on the performance of a large full-scale parachute behind a slender leading bodyat Mars-relevant Mach number, dynamic pressure and parachute loads. This data is used topropose a new model for the parachute drag behind slender bodies to aid future experiments.

Muppidi, Suman↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of Jet Noise in Flight Conditions

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction (PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) project. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several operating points both for static (no ambient co-flow), and in-flight (M ͚ =0.3 co-flow) conditions. The operating conditions range in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.1 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7. The effect of the flight-stream on far-field noise sound spectra is assessed. Comparison of LES predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate good agreement within the resolved frequency range. A dip in the predicted low frequency noise spectra for observers between 120° and 145° is observed. This dip is smaller for lower Mach numbers and seems to be correlated to the Mach wave radiation angle. The Mach 1.1 jet shows broadband-shock associated noise. While the onset of BBSN appears to be captured correctly in WMLES, some differences in its magnitude and the prominent frequency at which it occurs persist between the experiment and the simulations. The effect of the outer nozzle boundary layer state created by the co-flow is assessed and shows to be important for accurate comparisons with experiments. A change of 2.5dB between a slip-wall condition and a artificially thickened turbulent boundary layer was observed. In addition, simulations were performed with an alternative nozzle geometry that includes a internal plug and has twice the nozzle exit diameter. These two configurations resulted in very comparable spectra which is consistent with experimental observations. A generally stronger deviation from experimental results is observed for in-flight cases compared to static conditions. The applicability and correct usage of acoustic analogies used for far-field propagation with strong turbulent co-flows needs to be investigated more systematically using canonical problems to improve comparisons between experiments and WMLES. This is especially true for coherent noise sources seen in BBSN.

CST↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated In-Situ Resource Utilization Modeling of a Lunar Water Processing System

A key element of achieving a sustained surface presence, such as defined in NASA’s Artemis plan, is In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). ISRU is the practice of using local resources to provide mission consumables that reduce system launch mass requirements, and regenerate resources (chiefly, water and oxygen) for propulsion and life support supporting both Lunar and Martian missions. ISRU systems require multiple complex processes, such as excavation, chemical reactors, and electrolysis subsystems that must operate in harmony to optimize the overall system process from beginning to end. The Mission Analysis and Integration Tool (MAIT) connects individual subsystem models into a customized, flexible framework for the purpose of technology downselect, optimization, and end-to-end process planning. MATLAB was favorable to use as the main software integration tool due to its ability to communicate with a vast number of other programming languages and makes up the backbone of data flow between inputs and outputs to the subsystem models. MAIT initially evaluated a suite of technologies, including but not limited to, the water processing Lunar Auger Dryer for ISRU (LADI) system and an oxygen extraction carbothermal reduction process. With individual models consolidated, the MAIT tool generated over 60,000 cases during its parametric sweeps; these system iterations produced valuable insight into the optimal LADI geometry for minimizing heater energy demands, estimating carbothermal reactor and radiator mass relationships, and calculated the power dynamics of the electrolysis unit. Efforts to update the MAIT tool are ongoing to accommodate and scale ISRU technologies supporting the Space Technology Mission Directorate’s (STMD) commercialization strategy, and increase the MAIT software capability to handle a wide array of ISRU system models beyond the Lunar environment, e.g. production of propellant for a Martian lander.

Avery Carlson↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Vibration of a cryomodule’s coupler during road transportation: Multibody analysis and experimental validation

The road transportation of critical components for cryogenic cryomodules is a challenging task. Indeed, the shipping and the handling of fundamental sub-assemblies can expose these components to harmful dynamic loads that can jeopardize their structural integrity. This article has the purpose of developing a finite element multibody model capable of assessing the acceleration on a test coupler for a cavity of the Single Spoke Resonator 1 subjected to a typical road transportation trip. A multibody model consisting of rigid bodies and finite element–imported flexible bodies has been created allowing a comparison of the simulated and experimental acceleration. Afterwards, an experimental on-road test, whose set-up is described in this article, has been carried out at Fermilab with instrumented components. Being able to effectively simulate and validate the dynamic effects on such sub-assemblies makes it possible, for the future, to simulate more complex structures subject to dynamic loadings, such as the entire cryomodules during shipping. Furthermore, the results from the simulations can be used to guide the design of new suspension systems suitable for the reduction mitigation of structural vibration during the road transportation of cryomodules.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

INTEGRATE - Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements

The INTEGRATE (Inverse Network Transformations for Efficient Generation of Robust Airfoil and Turbine Enhancements) project is developing a new inverse-design capability for the aerodynamic design of wind turbine rotors using invertible neural networks. This AI-based design technology can capture complex non-linear aerodynamic effects while being 100 times faster than design approaches based on computational fluid dynamics. This project enables innovation in wind turbine design by accelerating time to market through higher-accuracy early design iterations to reduce the levelized cost of energy. INVERTIBLE NEURAL NETWORKS Researchers are leveraging a specialized invertible neural network (INN) architecture along with the novel dimension-reduction methods and airfoil/blade shape representations developed by collaborators at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) learns complex relationships between airfoil or blade shapes and their associated aerodynamic and structural properties. This INN architecture will accelerate designs by providing a cost-effective alternative to current industrial aerodynamic design processes, including: - Blade element momentum (BEM) theory models: limited effectiveness for design of offshore rotors with large, flexible blades where nonlinear aerodynamic effects dominate - Direct design using computational fluid dynamics (CFD): cost-prohibitive - Inverse-design models based on deep neural networks (DNNs): attractive alternative to CFD for 2D design problems, but quickly overwhelmed by the increased number of design variables in 3D problems AUTOMATED COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMICS FOR TRAINING DATA GENERATION - MERCURY FRAMEWORK The INN is trained on data obtained using the University of Marylands (UMD) Mercury Framework, which has with robust automated mesh generation capabilities and advanced turbulence and transition models validated for wind energy applications. Mercury is a multi-mesh paradigm, heterogeneous CPU-GPU framework. The framework incorporates three flow solvers at UMD, 1) OverTURNS, a structured solver on CPUs, 2) HAMSTR, a line based unstructured solver on CPUs, and 3) GARFIELD, a structured solver on GPUs. The framework is based on Python, that is often used to wrap C or Fortran codes for interoperability with other solvers. Communication between multiple solvers is accomplished with a Topology Independent Overset Grid Assembler (TIOGA). NOVEL AIRFOIL SHAPE REPRESENTATIONS USING GRASSMAN SPACES We developed a novel representation of shapes which decouples affine-style deformations from a rich set of data-driven deformations over a submanifold of the Grassmannian. The Grassmannian representation as an analytic generative model, informed by a database of physically relevant airfoils, offers (i) a rich set of novel 2D airfoil deformations not previously captured in the data , (ii) improved low-dimensional parameter domain for inferential statistics informing design/manufacturing, and (iii) consistent 3D blade representation and perturbation over a sequence of nominal shapes. TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DEMONSTRATION - COUPLING WITH NREL WISDEM Researchers have integrated the inverse-design tool for 2D airfoils (INN-Airfoil) into WISDEM (Wind Plant Integrated Systems Design and Engineering Model), a multidisciplinary design and optimization framework for assessing the cost of energy, as part of tech-transfer demonstration. The integration of INN-Airfoil into WISDEM allows for the design of airfoils along with the blades that meet the dynamic design constraints on cost of energy, annual energy production, and the capital costs. Through preliminary studies, researchers have shown that the coupled INN-Airfoil + WISDEM approach reduces the cost of energy by around 1% compared to the conventional design approach. This page will serve as a place to easily access all the publications from this work and the repositories for the software developed and released through this pr...

aerodynamics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of a Tapered Impact Damper for Traffic Signal Structure Vibrations Using the Method of Harmonic Balance

Significant vibration amplitudes and cycles can be produced when traffic signal structures with low inherent damping are excited near one of their natural frequencies. For the mitigation of wind-induced vibrations, dynamic vibration absorbers coupled to the structure are often used. Here, this research investigates the performance of a tapered impact damper, consisting of a hanging spring-mass oscillator inside a housing capable of reducing vibration amplitude over a broader frequency range than the conventional tuned mass damper. A nonlinear, two degree-of-freedom model is developed with coordinates representing the traffic structure and the tapered impact damper. This research focuses on the application of the harmonic balance method to approximate the periodic solutions of the nonlinear equations to compute the nonlinear dynamics of the damped traffic signal structure. After designing and manufacturing a tapered impact damper, the traffic signal structure is tested with and without the damper using free vibration snapback tests. The experimental frequency and damping backbone curves are used to validate the analytical model, and the effectiveness of the damper is discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multilane Automated Driving With Optimal Control and Mixed-Integer Programming

Road vehicle lane changes often initiate traffic disturbances and can therefore impact road networks’ energy and time efficiency. Furthermore, unexpected changes in traffic conditions may also render lane changes counterproductive for the lane-changing vehicle. Vehicle-to-vehicle connectivity combined with anticipative control could address these challenges via improved lane change decisions by automated vehicles. In a move toward this objective, receding horizon control cast as a mixed-integer quadratic program is used to plan lane changing and acceleration in a coupled optimization. A long-term pacing module, based on Pontryagin’s minimum principle from optimal control theory, sets terminal and input references for receding horizon control to target a user’s expected travel time. To remove nonlinear vehicle dynamics from the receding horizon controller, lane change commands are passed to a pure pursuit steering module whose response is approximated by a second-order linear model. Here, comparison against a rule-based reactive algorithm in arterial and highway scenarios shows an 8.9%–13.7% reduction in energy consumption and a 5.2%–10.3% reduction in the travel time, along with navigational improvements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the National Off-Cycle Benefits of 2-Layer HVAC Technology Using Dynamometer Testing and a National Simulation Framework

Some CO2-reducing technologies have real-world benefits not captured by regulatory testing methods. This paper documents a two-layer heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system that facilitates faster engine warmup through strategic increased air recirculation. The performance of this technology was assessed on a 2020 Hyundai Sonata. Empirical performance of the technology was obtained through dynamometer tests at Argonne National Laboratory. Performance of the vehicle across multiple cycles and cell ambient temperatures with the two-layer technology active and inactive indicated fuel consumption reduction in nearly all cases. A thermally sensitive powertrain model, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's FASTSim Hot, was calibrated and validated against vehicle testing data. The developed model included the engine, cabin, and HVAC system controls. Validation of component thermal models and engine efficiency ensured accurate thermal dynamics, fuel consumption, and two-layer benefit. The real-world benefit of the two-layer technology was calculated by simulating the validated powertrain model across a representative test matrix comparing performance with and without the two-layer system. Simulation across the test matrix revealed a real-world representative benefit of 0.0835%. Analysis of test matrix results at the regional level revealed the most benefit in cold climates and rural regions. Mean results across cycle length sensitivity simulations revealed a larger real-world benefit of 0.0872%. These benefit values can be considered a more accurate assessment of real-world technology performance. Future work is planned to explore the requisite number of drive cycles to ensure the full technology benefit is captured.

2-layer↗
NASA NTRS1992

An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

Lehmann, P.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Cyclic Symmetry Finite Element Forced Response Analysis of a Distortion-Tolerant Fan with Boundary Layer Ingestion

Accurate prediction of the blade vibration stress is required to determine overall durability of fan blade design under Boundary Layer Ingestion (BLI) distorted flow environments. Traditional single blade modeling technique is incapable of representing accurate modeling for the entire rotor blade system subject to complex dynamic loading behaviors and vibrations in distorted flow conditions. A particular objective of our work was to develop a high-fidelity full-rotor aeromechanics analysis capability for a system subjected to a distorted inlet flow by applying cyclic symmetry finite element modeling methodology. This reduction modeling method allows computationally very efficient analysis using a small periodic section of the full rotor blade system. Experimental testing by the use of the 8-foot by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel Test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center was also carried out for the system designated as the Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlet/Distortion-Tolerant Fan (BLI2DTF) technology development. The results obtained from the present numerical modeling technique were evaluated with those of the wind tunnel experimental test, toward establishing a computationally efficient aeromechanics analysis modeling tool facilitating for analyses of the full rotor blade systems subjected to a distorted inlet flow conditions. Fairly good correlations were achieved hence our computational modeling techniques were fully demonstrated. The analysis result showed that the safety margin requirement set in the BLI2DTF fan blade design provided a sufficient margin with respect to the operating speed range.

forced response analysis↗
NASA NTRS2019

ASPIRE Aerodynamic Models and Flight Performance

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research Experiments (ASPIRE) project waslaunched to develop the capability for testing supersonic parachutes at Mars-relevant conditions.Three initial parachute tests, targeted as a risk-reduction activity for NASA's upcoming Mars2020 mission, successfully tested two candidate parachute designs and provided valuable data onparachute inflation, forces, and aerodynamic behavior. Design of the flight tests depended onflight mechanics simulations which in turn required aerodynamic models for the payload, andthe parachute. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) was used to generate these models preflightand they are compared against the flight data after the tests. For the payload, thereconstructed aerodynamic behavior is close to the pre-flight predictions, but the uncertaintiesin the reconstructed data are high due to the low dynamic pressures and accelerations duringthe flight period of comparison. For the parachute, the predicted time to inflation agrees wellwith the pre-flight model; the peak aerodynamic force and the steady state drag on the parachuteare within the bounds of the pre-flight models, even as the models over-predict the parachutedrag at supersonic Mach numbers. Notably, the flight data do not show the transonic dragdecrease predicted by the pre-flight model. The ASPIRE flight tests provide previouslyunavailable valuable data on the performance of a large full-scale parachute behind a slenderleading body at Mars-relevant Mach number, dynamic pressure and parachute loads. TheASPIRE results are used to propose a new model for the parachute drag behind slender bodiesto aid future experiments.

Muppidi, Suman↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Fidelity Arc-Discharge Model for Hydrogen-Plasma-Smelting-Reduction of Iron Ore

Electrification and use of renewable hydrogen is currently a necessity for decarbonizing the iron-and-steel industry. In this regard, hydrogen plasma smelting reduction (HPSR) is a novel pathway that is being explored for reduction of iron ore. HPSR provides several decarbonization merits compared to conventional blast furnaces. Firstly, the use of renewable hydrogen drastically reduces the CO2 emissions compared to the use of coke. Secondly, renewable electricity in the form of a thermal plasma for making reactive hydrogen species (radicals, ions) are more efficient at reducing iron ore compared to neutral H2. Thirdly, a molten product compatible with downstream processes is obtained from the intense heat transfer from the plasma. However, the scale-up of this technology requires fundamental exploration of hydrogen plasma dynamics and its interaction with complex solid material that include phase changing iron-ore and slag. In this work, we present a first principles continuum scale model for thermal plasmas in Ar/H2 gas mixtures typically used for HPSR. The thermal plasma governing equations for mass, momentum and energy with Lorentz force and Joule heating source terms are solved along with electromagnetic equations for electrostatic and magnetic vector potential. Our solver will be based on Pele, a suite of reacting flow solvers designed for advanced scientific computing architectures (Henry De Frahan et al., Proceedings of SIAM Parallel Processing, 13-25, 2024), and will utilize adaptive mesh generation for enhanced resolutions at locations of intense physicochemical interactions. This study will present the impact of Ar to H2 ratios on excited/dissociated hydrogen species concentrations, plasma temperature and conductivity along with the impact of outgassed species (water, metal vapor, O, OH radicals) from ore surface on gas phase chemistry. Furthermore, the heat and species flux to the surface will be quantified as a function of applied voltages in a transferred arc configuration.

hydrogen plasma↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mapping the global distribution of C 4 vegetation using observations and optimality theory

Plants with the C 4 photosynthesis pathway typically respond to climate change differently from more common C 3 -type plants, due to their distinct anatomical and biochemical characteristics. These different responses are expected to drive changes in global C 4 and C 3 vegetation distributions. However, current C 4 vegetation distribution models may not predict this response as they do not capture multiple interacting factors and often lack observational constraints. Here, we used global observations of plant photosynthetic pathways, satellite remote sensing, and photosynthetic optimality theory to produce an observation-constrained global map of C 4 vegetation. We find that global C 4 vegetation coverage decreased from 17.7% to 17.1% of the land surface during 2001 to 2019. This was the net result of a reduction in C 4 natural grass cover due to elevated CO 2 favoring C 3 -type photosynthesis, and an increase in C 4 crop cover, mainly from corn (maize) expansion. Using an emergent constraint approach, we estimated that C 4 vegetation contributed 19.5% of global photosynthetic carbon assimilation, a value within the range of previous estimates (18–23%) but higher than the ensemble mean of dynamic global vegetation models (14 ± 13%; mean ± one standard deviation). Our study sheds insight on the critical and underappreciated role of C 4 plants in the contemporary global carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hamiltonian reduction of Vlasov–Maxwell to a dark slow manifold

In this work, we show that non-relativistic scaling of the collisionless Vlasov–Maxwell system implies the existence of a formal invariant slow manifold in the infinite-dimensional Vlasov–Maxwell phase space. Vlasov–Maxwell dynamics restricted to the slow manifold recovers the Vlasov–Poisson and Vlasov–Darwin models as low-order approximations, and provides higher-order corrections to the Vlasov–Darwin model more generally. The slow manifold may be interpreted to all orders in perturbation theory as a collection of formal Vlasov–Maxwell solutions that do not excite light waves, and are therefore ‘dark’. We provide a heuristic lower bound for the time interval over which Vlasov–Maxwell solutions initialized optimally near the slow manifold remain dark. We also show how the dynamics on the slow manifold naturally inherits a Hamiltonian structure from the underlying system. After expressing this structure in a simple form, we use it to identify a manifestly Hamiltonian correction to the Vlasov–Darwin model. The derivation of higher-order terms is reduced to computing the corrections of the system Hamiltonian restricted to the slow manifold.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1983

cD galaxy dynamics and an aged ridge (jet) in 3C 338

The results of VLA observations and possible models for the peculiar structure of 3C 338, a two-arcmin radio source associated with the cD galaxy NGC 6166 in Abell 2199, are presented. The optical parameters for Abell 2199 and NGc 6166 are reviewed, and the VLA observations and reductions are described. The radio structure of 3C 338 including spectral index and polarization distributions are also discussed. Two possible origins for the ridge structure located to the south of the core which has some characteristics of a jet are proposed. The first involves a cooling accretion flow of ICM material onto the cD. The ram pressure of a highly asymmetric flow seems to be sufficient to confine the radio ridge using an accretion rate of 100 solar masses/yr. The second model presumes that the ridge is actually an aged radio jet. The radio engine would have to be intermittent with a period of about ten million years.

White, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Aera-Mip: Emission Pathways, Remaining Budgets, and Carbon Cycle Dynamics Compatible With 1.5 and 2 °C Global Warming Stabilization

While international climate policies now focus on limiting global warming to well below 2 °C or pursuing a 1.5 °C level of global warming, the climate modelling community has not provided an experimental design in which all Earth system models (ESMs) converge and stabilize at the same prescribed global warming levels. This gap hampers accurate estimations based on comprehensive ESMs of the carbon emission pathways and budgets needed to meet such agreed warming levels and of the associated climate impacts under temperature stabilization. Here, we apply the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) with ESMs to provide such simulations in which all models converge at 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming levels by adjusting their emissions over time. These emission-driven simulations provide a wide range of emission pathways and resulting atmospheric CO 2 projections for a given warming level, uncovering uncertainty ranges that were previously missing in the traditional Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios with prescribed greenhouse gas concentration pathways. Meeting the 1.5 °C warming level requires a 40 % (full model range: 7 % to 76 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -forcing-equivalent (CO 2 -fe) emissions from 2025 to 2030, a 98 % (57 % to 127 %) reduction from 2025 to 2050, and a stabilization at 1.0 (−1.7 to 2.9) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward after the 1.5 °C global warming level is reached. Meeting the 2.0 °C warming level requires a 47 % (8 % to 92 %) reduction in multi-model mean CO 2 -fe emissions until 2050 and a stabilization at 1.7 (−1.5 to 2.7) PgC yr−1 from 2100 onward. The on-average positive emissions under stabilized global temperatures are the result of a decreasing transient climate response to cumulative CO 2 -fe emissions over time under stabilized global warming. This evolution is consistent with a slightly negative zero emissions commitment – initially assumed to be zero – and leads to an increase in the post-2025 CO 2 -fe emission budget by a factor of 2.2 (−0.8 to 6.9) by 2150 for the 1.5 °C warming level and a factor of 1.4 (0.9 to 2.4) for the 2.0 °C warming level compared to its first estimate in 2025. The median CO 2 -only carbon budget by 2150, relative to 2020, is 800 GtCO 2 for the 1.5 °C warming level and 2250 GtCO 2 for the 2.0 °C warming level. These median values exceed the median IPCC AR6 estimates by 60 % for the 1.5 °C warming level and 67 % for 2.0 °C. Some of the differences may be explained by the choice of the mitigation scenario for non-CO 2 radiative agents. Our simulations highlight shifts in carbon uptake dynamics under stabilized temperature, such as a cessation of the carbon sinks in the North Atlantic and in tropical forests. On the other hand, the Southern Ocean remains a carbon sink centuries after temperatures stabilize. Overall, this new type of warming-level-based emission-driven simulation offers a more coherent assessment across climate models and opens up a wide range of possibilities for studying both the carbon cycle and climate impacts, such as extreme events, under climate stabilization.

Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamic tensile-failure-induced velocity deficits in rock

Planar impact experiments were employed to induce dynamic tensile failure in Bedford limestone. Rock disks were impacted with aluminum and polymethyl methacralate (PMMA) flyer plates at velocities of 10 to 25 m/s. Tensile stress magnitudes and duration were chosen so as to induce a range of microcrack growth insufficient to cause complete spalling of the samples. Ultrasonic P- and S-wave velocities of recovered targets were compared to the velocities prior to impact. Velocity reduction, and by inference microcrack production, occurred in samples subjected to stresses above 35 MPa in the 1.3 microsec PMMA experiments and 60 MPa in the 0.5 microsec aluminum experiments. Using a simple model for the time-dependent stress-intensity factor at the tips of existing flaws, apparent fracture toughnesses of 2.4 and 2.5 MPa sq rt m are computed for the 1.3 and 0.5 microsec experiments. These are a factor of about 2 to 3 greater than quasi-static values. The greater dynamic fracture toughness observed may result from microcrack interaction during tensile failure. Data for water-saturated and dry targets are indistinguishable.

Rubin, Allan M.↗