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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 613 records · Page 34

Dynamical model for social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 epidemic

Social distancing has led to a “flattening of the curve” in many states across the U.S. This is part of a novel, massive, global social experiment which has served to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral drugs. Hence it is important to be able to forecast hospitalizations reasonably accurately. We propose on phenomenological grounds a random walk/generalized diffusion equation which incorporates the effect of social distancing to describe the temporal evolution of the probability of having a given number of hospitalizations. The probability density function is log-normal in the number of hospitalizations, which is useful in describing pandemics where the number of hospitalizations is very high. We used this insight and data to make forecasts for states using Monte Carlo methods. Back testing validates our approach, which yields good results about a week into the future. States are beginning to reopen at the time of submission of this paper and our forecasts indicate possible precursors of increased hospitalizations. However, the trends we forecast for hospitalizations as well as infections thus far show moderate growth. Additionally we studied the reproducibility in New York (Italian strain) and California (Wuhan strain). We find that even if there is a difference in the transmission of the two strains, social distancing has been able to control the progression of COVID 19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Adaptive Reduced Basis Collocation Method Based on PCM ANOVA Decomposition for Anisotropic Stochastic PDEs

The combination of reduced basis and collocation methods enables efficient and accurate evaluation of the solutions to parameterized PDEs. Here, we study the stochastic collocation methods that can be combined with reduced basis methods to solve high-dimensional parameterized stochastic PDEs. We also propose an adaptive algorithm using a probabilistic collocation method (PCM) and ANOVA decomposition. This procedure involves two stages. First, the method employs an ANOVA decomposition to identify the effective dimensions, i.e., subspaces of the parameter space in which the contributions to the solution are larger, and sort the reduced basis solution in a descending order of error.Then, the adaptive search refines the parametric space by increasing the order of polynomials until the algorithm is terminated by a saturation constraint. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm for solving a stationary stochastic convection-diffusion equation, a benchmark problem chosen because solutions contain steep boundary layers and anisotropic features. Lastly, we show that two stages of adaptivity are critical in a benchmark problem with anisotropic stochasticity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of Adaptive Model Refinement (AMoR) for Multiphysics and Multifidelity Problems

This project investigated the development and utilization of Adaptive Model Refinement (AMoR) for nuclear systems simulation applications. AMoR refers to utilization of several models of physical phenomena which differ in prediction fidelity. If the highest fidelity model is judged to always provide or exceeded the desired fidelity, than if one can determine the difference in a Quantity of Interest (QoI) between the highest fidelity model and lower fidelity models, one could utilize the fidelity model that would just provide the magnitude of the QoI desired. Assuming lower fidelity models require less computational resources, in this manner computational efficiency can be realized provided the QoI value can be accurately and efficiently evaluated. This work utilized Generalized Perturbation Theory (GPT) to evaluate the QoI, by convoluting the GPT solution with the residual of the highest fidelity model determined using the solution from lower fidelity models. Specifically, a reactor core neutronics problem and thermal-hydraulics problem were studied to develop and utilize AMoR. The highest fidelity neutronics model was based upon the 3D space-time, two-group, nodal diffusion equations as solved in the NESTLE computer code. Added to the NESTLE code was the ability to determine the time-dependent GPT neutron flux. The lower fidelity neutronics model was based upon the point kinetics equations along with utilization of a prolongation operator to determine the 3D space-time, two-group flux. The highest fidelity thermal-hydraulics model was based upon the space-time equations governing fluid flow in a closed channel around a heat generating fuel rod. The Homogenous Equilibrium Mixture (HEM) model was used for the fluid and Finite Difference Method was applied to both the coolant and fuel pin energy conservation equations. The lower fidelity thermal-hydraulic model was based upon the same equations as used for the highest fidelity model but now with coarse spatial meshing, corrected somewhat by employing effective fuel heat conduction values. The effectiveness of switching between the highest fidelity model and lower fidelity model as a function of time was assessed using the neutronics problem. Based upon work completed to date, one concludes that the time switching is effective in annealing out differences between the highest and lower fidelity solutions. The effectiveness of using a lower fidelity GPT solution, along with a prolongation operator, to estimate the QoI was also assessed. The utilization of a lower fidelity GPT solution was done in an attempt to avoid the high computational burden associated with solving for the highest fidelity GPT solution. Based upon work completed to date, one concludes that the lower fidelity adjoint solution is not sufficiently accurate with regard to estimating the QoI; however, a formulation has been revealed that may provide a path for addressing this shortcoming.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Exploring Applications of Random Walks on Spiking Neural Algorithms

Neuromorphic computing has many promises in the future of computing due to its energy efficient and scalable implementation. Here we extend a neural algorithm that is able to solve the diffusion equation PDE by implementing random walks on neuromorphic hardware. Additionally, we introduce four random walk applications that use this spiking neural algorithm. The four applications currently implemented are: generating a random walk to replicate an image, finding a path between two nodes, finding triangles in a graph, and partitioning a graph into two sections. We then made these four applications available to be implemented on software using a graphical user interface (GUI).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining Observational and Computational Uncertainty in Calibration Experiments

Traditional computer experiments using emulators have treat the emulator output as containing no error; however, this is not always feasible, as there exist computational codes which produce stochastic output, and future computations may require a balance between the time or resources to run the code and the accuracy of the output. This paper proposes a framework for incorporating both computational uncertainty and observational uncertainty into an analysis using a Gaussian process regression and calibration, and provides an example using simulated output from the one-dimensional diffusion equation. The particular values of observational and computation uncertainty which minimize a cost function are obtained.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Alpha

What is this parameter called alpha, and why is it so important? To answer these questions we consider the density of fission neutrons at any point $_r^→$ = (x, y, z) inside a volume of fissionable material. Ignoring neutron absorption, this time-varying density of neutrons is determined by two physical processes --- generation of more neutrons by fission chain reactions, and the loss of neutrons by diffusion to and through the surface. A simple, approximate mathematical description of these processes is the diffusion equation for the average neutron density n($_r^→$, t) including a fission source term.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Examining Graphite Degradation in Molten Salt Environments: A Chemical, Physical, and Material Analysis

Molten-salt reactors (MSRs) are Generation IV nuclear reactors that use liquid salt as a coolant and/or fuel. In several MSR designs, graphite serves as a moderator and/or reflector. However, due to limited experimental data and operational experience, our understanding of graphite behavior in molten salt environments remains incomplete. This report aims to identify the degradation mechanisms of nuclear graphite in MSRs, detail the mechanisms of each factor, and provide an initial assessment of their impact on the structural integrity of graphite components. This assessment is based on an extensive literature review and insights from subject matter experts. Furthermore, given the limited data, a modeling strategy using existing Grizzly software is proposed for a more thorough analysis where appropriate. Additionally, it presents mitigation strategies where applicable. The report covers physical degradation mechanisms such as infiltration, erosion, and abrasion, as well as chemical degradation mechanisms including fluorination, intercalation, corrosion, and oxidation. Molten salt can infiltrate the porous structure of graphite, leading to several detrimental effects. Entrapment of fissile products within the graphite pores can cause radiation damage and could pose challenges in the handling and disposal of contaminated components. The differential thermal expansion between the infiltrated salt and graphite, along with internal stress from pressurized molten salt and volumetric heating, can compromise the structural integrity of graphite. To mitigate these effects, employing ultra-fine graphite grades and applying sealants and coatings are effective strategies. A computational model based on coupled solid mechanics and heat transfer phenomena could be used to predict the internal stresses using Grizzly software. In pebble-bed MSRs, graphite fuel pebbles can cause abrasion against reactor components due to friction and wear. The severity of wear is influenced by various factors such as temperature, environment, and the presence of lubricants. Tribological studies reveal that higher temperatures and molten salt environments, such as FLiBe, significantly reduce wear rates compared to dry conditions. Additionally, the chemical composition of the salt can further optimize graphite's tribological performance. Long-term wear effects can be modeled by incorporating surface defects into the geometry and predict stresses under thermal and radiation effects using Grizzly software. Chemical degradation of graphite in a molten salt environment can occur through fluorination and intercalation. Fluorination can occur via replacement of hydrogen or oxygen atoms, or at the active sites, but does not cause structural degradation. Intercalation, on the other hand, can lead to exfoliation, where layers of graphite separate and peel away, damaging the graphite. Protective coatings can enhance graphite's resistance to intercalation. Graphite generally exhibits good chemical stability in molten salt environments, though it can corrode under specific conditions, particularly in the presence of impurities or oxidants. Studies have shown that protective coatings, such as plasma-sprayed partially stabilized zirconia (PSZ), can effectively prevent such degradation. Corrosion behavior varies significantly with different graphite grades and coating applications, underscoring the need for detailed studies on uncoated and coated graphite to understand and mitigate corrosion mechanisms in MSRs. Research indicates that the presence of oxidants and impurities can accelerate graphite degradation in molten salts, making it essential to explore acceptable impurity limits. Oxidation is another critical degradation mechanism, leading to weight loss and structural damage due to the formation of CO and CO 2 from the reaction of carbon atoms with oxygen. This process creates new porosity and compromises graphite's integrity. While extensive research on graphite oxidation has been conducted for gas-cooled reactors, studies specific to MSRs are limited. Findings from the coal industry suggest that molten alkali metal salts can significantly accelerate graphite oxidation, a hypothesis worth exploring for fluoride salts in MSRs. Understanding oxidation behavior in MSRs is vital for developing protective measures. The analysis of post-irradiated graphite from the MSRE experiment demonstrated exceptional chemical compatibility with molten fluoride salt, suggesting that the extent of chemical attack on graphite largely depends on the salt's infiltration capability. Therefore, the use of ultra-fine grade graphite could help mitigate chemical degradation effects. Existing oxidation modeling capabilities in Grizzly, which use reaction-diffusion equations to model graphite-air interactions, could be adapted to simulate the chemical degradation effects of graphite in molten salt environments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Doppler Broadening and Other Temperature Effects

In this paper I attempt to document what I have learned and still remember about temperature effects, particularly Doppler broadening, on nuclear data, as it applies to ENDF formatted data. My focus is on the SIGMA1 method of Doppler broadening that I developed over 50 years ago. However, I do realize that there are currently many different methods used in computer codes, and I have tried to keep my discussion general as it applies to ALL of these methods. In particular, ALL of the MYTHS I describe below apply to all Doppler broadening methods: they all solve the parabolic diffusion equation in spherical geometry in (speed, reaction rate) versus temperature. These methods differ only in how the cross section is represented. So, at 85 years old here is what I still remember.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparison of spatial dynamics and point kinetics approaches in multiphysics modeling of the molten salt reactor experiment

In this work, we present validation test results of fully coupled neutronics and thermal-hydraulics models of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) against experimental data of the zero power pump transients and the natural circulation tests at low power. To capture the strong coupling between neutronics and thermal-hydraulics due to fuel circulation, and to account for the delayed neutron precursor (DNP) distribution, the porous media thermal-hydraulics solver Pronghorn was fully coupled to the spatial neutron dynamics code Griffin, which solves the neutron diffusion equation, and to the 0-D point kinetics solver Squirrel, using a 2-D homogenized representation of the MSRE. The validation test results show very good agreement with experimental data for both point kinetics and spatial dynamics simulations, capturing the strong feedback effect and DNP losses in the MSRE. The 0-D code Squirrel accurately predicted the time-dependent behavior in the MSRE given the steady-state spatial dynamics solution of Griffin.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

On the Flow of a Cement Suspension: The Effects of Nano-Silica and Fly Ash Particles

Additives such as nano-silica and fly ash are widely used in cement and concrete materials to improve the rheology of fresh cement and concrete and the performance of hardened materials and increase the sustainability of the cement and concrete industry by reducing the usage of Portland cement. Therefore, it is important to study the effect of these additives on the rheological behavior of fresh cement. In this paper, we study the pulsating Poiseuille flow of fresh cement in a horizontal pipe by considering two different additives and when they are combined (nano-silica, fly ash, combined nano-silica, and fly ash). To model the fresh cement suspension, we used a modified form of the power-law model to demonstrate the dependency of the cement viscosity on the shear rate and volume fraction of cement and the additive particles. The convection–diffusion equation was used to solve for the volume fraction. After solving the equations in the dimensionless forms, we conducted a parametric study to analyze the effects of nano-silica, fly ash, and combined nano-silica and fly ash additives on the velocity and volume fraction profiles of the cement suspension. According to the parametric study presented here, larger nano-silica content results in lower centerline velocity of the cement suspension and larger non-uniformity of the volume fraction. Compared to nano-silica, fly ash exhibits an opposite effect on the velocity. Larger fly ash content results in higher centerline velocity, while the effect of the fly ash on the volume fraction is not obvious. For cement suspension containing combined nano-silica and fly ash additives, nano-silica plays a dominant role in the flow behavior of the suspension. The findings of the study can help the design and operation of the pulsating flow of fresh cement mortars and concrete in the 3D printing industry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Neural network approaches for parameterized optimal control

Here, we consider numerical approaches for deterministic, finite-dimensional optimal control problems whose dynamics depend on unknown or uncertain parameters. We seek to amortize the solution over a set of relevant parameters in an offline stage to enable rapid decision-making and be able to react to changes in the parameter in the online stage. To tackle the curse of dimensionality arising when the state and/or parameter are high-dimensional, we represent the policy using neural networks. We compare two training paradigms: First, our model-based approach leverages the dynamics and definition of the objective function to learn the value function of the parameterized optimal control problem and obtain the policy using a feedback form. Second, we use actor-critic reinforcement learning to approximate the policy in a data-driven way. Using an example involving a two-dimensional convection-diffusion equation, which features high-dimensional state and parameter spaces, we investigate the accuracy and efficiency of both training paradigms. While both paradigms lead to a reasonable approximation of the policy, the model-based approach is more accurate and considerably reduces the number of PDE solves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Inversion of geothermal heat flux in a thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice sheet model

We address the inverse problem of inferring the basal geothermal heat flux from surface velocity observations using a steady-state thermomechanically coupled nonlinear Stokes ice flow model. This is a challenging inverse problem since the map from basal heat flux to surface velocity observables is indirect: the heat flux is a boundary condition for the thermal advection–diffusion equation, which couples to the nonlinear Stokes ice flow equations; together they determine the surface ice flow velocity. This multiphysics inverse problem is formulated as a nonlinear least-squares optimization problem with a cost functional that includes the data misfit between surface velocity observations and model predictions. A Tikhonov regularization term is added to render the problem well posed. We derive adjoint-based gradient and Hessian expressions for the resulting partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization problem and propose an inexact Newton method for its solution. As a consequence of the Petrov–Galerkin discretization of the energy equation, we show that discretization and differentiation do not commute; that is, the order in which we discretize the cost functional and differentiate it affects the correctness of the gradient. Using two- and three-dimensional model problems, we study the prospects for and limitations of the inference of the geothermal heat flux field from surface velocity observations. The results show that the reconstruction improves as the noise level in the observations decreases and that short-wavelength variations in the geothermal heat flux are difficult to recover. We analyze the ill-posedness of the inverse problem as a function of the number of observations by examining the spectrum of the Hessian of the cost functional. Motivated by the popularity of operator-split or staggered solvers for forward multiphysics problems – i.e., those that drop two-way coupling terms to yield a one-way coupled forward Jacobian – we study the effect on the inversion of a one-way coupling of the adjoint energy and Stokes equations. Here, we show that taking such a one-way coupled approach for the adjoint equations can lead to an incorrect gradient and premature termination of optimization iterations. This is due to loss of a descent direction stemming from inconsistency of the gradient with the contours of the cost functional. Nevertheless, one may still obtain a reasonable approximate inverse solution particularly if important features of the reconstructed solution emerge early in optimization iterations, before the premature termination.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Does elevated atmospheric CO 2 affect soil carbon burial and soil weathering in a forest ecosystem?

Most experimental studies measuring the effects of climate change on terrestrial C cycling have focused on processes that occur at relatively short time scales (up to a few years). However, climate-soil C interactions are influenced over much longer time scales by bioturbation and soil weathering affecting soil fertility, ecosystem productivity, and C storage. Elevated CO 2 can increase belowground C inputs and stimulate soil biota, potentially affecting bioturbation, and can decrease soil pH which could accelerate soil weathering rates. To determine whether we could resolve any changes in bioturbation or C storage, we investigated soil profiles collected from ambient and elevated-CO 2 plots at the Free-Air Carbon-Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) forest site at Oak Ridge National Laboratory after 11 years of 13 C-depleted CO 2 release. Profiles of organic carbon concentration, δ 13 C values, and activities of 137 Cs, 210 Pb, and 226 Ra were measured to ~30 cm depth in replicated soil cores to evaluate the effects of elevated CO 2 on these parameters. Bioturbation models based on fitting advection-diffusion equations to 137 Cs and 210 Pb profiles showed that ambient and elevated-CO 2 plots had indistinguishable ranges of apparent biodiffusion constants, advection rates, and soil mixing times, although apparent biodiffusion constants and advection rates were larger for 137 Cs than for 210 Pb as is generally observed in soils. Temporal changes in profiles of δ 13 C values of soil organic carbon (SOC) suggest that addition of new SOC at depth was occurring at a faster rate than that implied by the net advection term of the bioturbation model. Ratios of ( 210 Pb/ 226 Ra) may indicate apparent soil mixing cells that are consistent with biological mechanisms, possibly earthworms and root proliferation, driving C addition and the mixing of soil between ~4 cm and ~18 cm depth. Lastly, burial of SOC by soil mixing processes could substantially increase the net long-term storage of soil C and should be incorporated in soil-atmosphere interaction models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The dynamics of variable stars.

Cepheid variable stars dynamics, analyzing spherical hydrodynamics and radiation diffusion equations as initial value problem

Christy, R. F.↗