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At least 613 records · Page 34

Comparing storm resolving models and climates via unsupervised machine learning

Global storm-resolving models (GSRMs) have gained widespread interest because of the unprecedented detail with which they resolve the global climate. However, it remains difficult to quantify objective differences in how GSRMs resolve complex atmospheric formations. This lack of comprehensive tools for comparing model similarities is a problem in many disparate fields that involve simulation tools for complex data. To address this challenge we develop methods to estimate distributional distances based on both nonlinear dimensionality reduction and vector quantization. Our approach automatically learns physically meaningful notions of similarity from low-dimensional latent data representations that the different models produce. This enables an intercomparison of nine GSRMs based on their high-dimensional simulation data (2D vertical velocity snapshots) and reveals that only six are similar in their representation of atmospheric dynamics. Furthermore, we uncover signatures of the convective response to global warming in a fully unsupervised way. Our study provides a path toward evaluating future high-resolution simulation data more objectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Training for HOM reduction and Emittance Preservation in a TESLA-type Cryomodule at FAST

Low emittance electron beams are of high importance at facilities like the LCLS-II at SLAC. Emittance dilution effects due to off-axis beam transport for a TESLA-type cryomodule (CM) have been shown at the Fermilab Accelerator Science and Technology facility. The results showed the correlation between the electron beam-induced cavity high-order modes (HOMs) and submacropulse centroid slewing and oscillation downstream of the CM. Mitigation of emittance dilution can be achieved by reducing the HOM signals and the variances in the submacropulse beam positions downstream of the CM. Here we present a Machine Learning based optimization and model construction for HOM signal level reduction using Neural Networks and Gaussian Processes. To gather training data we performed experiments using single bunch and 50 bunch electron beams with charges up to 125 pC/b. We measured HOM signals of all cavities and beam position with a set of BPMs downstream of the CM. The beam trajectory was changed using V/H125 corrector set located upstream of the CM. The results presented here will inform the LCLS-II injector commissioning and will serve as a prototype for HOM reduction and emittance preservation.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Analysis of Benefits Associated With Projects and Technologies Supported by the Clean Transportation Program: 2023 Executive Summary [Slides]

In 2007, California Assembly Bills (AB) 118 and 109 created the Clean Transportation Program (CTP), which authorized the California Energy Commission (CEC) to fund projects concerning alternative fuels and advanced transportation technologies to help attain the state's climate change policies. AB 109 also required CEC to prepare a report summarizing the benefits resulting from the program. Since then, CEC has collaborated with National Renewable Energy Laboratory to prepare and publish biannual reports summarizing CTP's benefits related to petroleum displacement, greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions, air pollution, and more. This report updates the input data, calculation methodologies, and resulting outputs from CEC's 2021 report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Tailored Convolutional Neural Network for Nonlinear Manifold Learning of Computational Physics Data Using Unstructured Spatial Discretizations

In this work, we propose a nonlinear manifold learning technique based on deep convolutional autoencoders that is appropriate for model order reduction of physical systems in complex geometries. Convolutional neural networks have proven to be highly advantageous for compressing data arising from systems demonstrating a slow-decaying Kolmogorov n-width. However, these networks are restricted to data on structured meshes. Unstructured meshes are often required for performing analyses of real systems with complex geometry. Our custom graph convolution operators based on the available differential operators for a given spatial discretization effectively extend the application space of deep convolutional autoencoders to systems with arbitrarily complex geometry that are typically discretized using unstructured meshes. We propose sets of convolution operators based on the spatial derivative operators for the underlying spatial discretization, making the method particularly well suited to data arising from the solution of partial differential equations. We demonstrate the method using examples from heat transfer and fluid mechanics and show better than an order of magnitude improvement in accuracy over linear methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data and Code for Understanding Generative AI Content with Embedding Models

This repository contains code for the experiments in the paper "Understanding Generative AI Content with Embedding Models". Constructing high-quality features is critical to any quantitative data analysis. While feature engineering was historically addressed by carefully hand-crafting data representations based on domain expertise, deep neural networks (DNNs) now offer a radically different approach. DNNs implicitly engineer features by transforming their input data into hidden feature vectors called embeddings. For embedding vectors produced by foundation models -- which are trained to be useful across many contexts -- we demonstrate that simple and well-studied dimensionality-reduction techniques such as Principal Component Analysis uncover inherent heterogeneity in input data concordant with human-understandable explanations. Of the many applications for this framework, we find empirical evidence that there is intrinsic separability between real samples and those generated by artificial intelligence (AI).

Vargas, Max [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory↗

Deciphering Distinct Overpotential-Dependent Pathways for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction Catalyzed by an Iron–Terpyridine Complex

[Fe(tpyPY2Me)] 2+ ([Fe] 2+ ) is a homogeneous electrocatalyst for converting CO 2 into CO featuring low overpotentials of <100 mV, near-unity selectivity, and high activity with turnover frequencies faster than 100 000 s -1 . To identify the origins of its exceptional performance and inform future catalyst design, we report a combined computational and experimental study that establishes two distinct mechanistic pathways for electrochemical CO 2 reduction catalyzed by [Fe] 2+ as a function of applied overpotential. Electrochemical data shows the formation of two catalytic regimes at low (η TOF/2 of 160 mV) and high (η TOF/2 of 590 mV) overpotential plateaus. We propose that at low overpotentials [Fe] 2+ undergoes a two-electron reduction, two-proton-transfer mechanism (electrochemical-electrochemical-chemical-chemical, EECC), where turnover occurs through the dicationic iron complex, [Fe] 2+ . Computational analysis supports the importance of the singlet ground-state electronic structure for CO 2 binding and that the rate-limiting step is the second protonation in this low-overpotential regime. When more negative potentials are applied, an additional electron-transfer event occurs through either a stepwise or proton-coupled electron-transfer (PCET) pathway, enabling catalytic turnover from the monocationic iron complex ([Fe] + ) via an electrochemical-chemical-electrochemical-chemical (ECEC) mechanism. Comparison of experimental kinetic data obtained from variable controlled potential electrolysis (CPE) experiments with direct product detection with calculated rates obtained from the energetic span model supports the PCET pathway as the most likely mechanism. Moreover, we build upon this mechanistic understanding to propose the design of an improved ligand framework that is predicted to stabilize the key transition states identified in our study and explore their electronic structures using an energy decomposition analysis. Finally, taken together, this work highlights the value of synergistic computational/experimental approaches to decipher mechanisms of new electrocatalysts and direct the rational design of improved platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Application of machine learning and artificial intelligence to extend EFIT equilibrium reconstruction

Recent progress in the application of machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to improve the Equilibrium Fitting (EFIT) code equilibrium reconstruction for fusion data analysis applications is presented. A device-independent portable core equilibrium solver capable of computing or reconstructing equilibrium for different tokamaks has been created to facilitate adaptation of ML/AI algorithms. A large EFIT database comprising of DIII-D magnetic, motional Stark effect, and kinetic reconstruction data has been generated for developments of EFIT model-order-reduction (MOR) surrogate models to reconstruct approximate equilibrium solutions. Furthermore, a neural-network MOR surrogate model has been successfully trained and tested using the magnetically reconstructed datasets with encouraging results. Other progress includes developments of a Gaussian process Bayesian framework that can adapt its many hyperparameters to improve processing of experimental input data and a 3D perturbed equilibrium database from toroidal full magnetohydrodynamic linear response modeling using the Magnetohydrodynamic Resistive Spectrum - Feedback (MARS-F) code for developments of 3D-MOR surrogate models.

Gaussian process↗

Efficient Dimension Reduction of Complex Three-dimensional CO2 Saturation using Deep Learning Models

In the domain of deep learning (DL), dimension reduction is crucial for enhancing training efficiency and mitigating overfitting, particularly when managing complex data such as three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. The 3D saturation data in the context of geological carbon storage (GCS) presents unique challenges due to its inherent sparsity and the abrupt transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To address the challenges, we proposed a novel DL framework that integrates dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our model leveraged latent variables derived from 2D average saturation data, offering a robust and efficient solution tailored to the intricate dynamics of 3D saturation fields. The proposed framework can extract the critical features of the high-dimensional data while reducing the variable numbers, which is more tractable for DL models and enhances the model robustness and accuracy. Therefore, it provides a novel approach for modeling and analyses in complex geological scenarios, which finds great potential applications in environmental monitoring and energy storage.

Wang, Hongsheng↗

Assessment of the driving factors of CO 2 mitigation costs of household biogas systems in China: A LMDI decomposition with cost analysis model

China has been placing a substantial focus on biogas for reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The operation mode of biogas systems may make the CO 2 reduction target over-optimistic. There is limited research to investigate the influential factors that may be causing the gap between the actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems in China. In this research, by using field survey data of 209 biogas users and 489 non-biogas users from 19 villages in 2015, the gap between actual and theoretical unit CO 2 reduction cost is quantified at approximately 156 USD/t CO 2 . By employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) model, it is found that both the cost effect (48%) and the reduction effect (52%) contribute to the unit CO 2 reduction cost gap. Furthermore, four influential factors–household labor, accessibility to the energy resource, acceptance of biogas technology, and subsidy–significantly narrow the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs, while the levelized subsidy contributes to widening the gap. On average, biogas systems should be operated for at least four years and the substitution rate should be more than 67% in order to keep the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs under 50%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

PV Performance Modeling and Stakeholder Engagement (Final Technical Report)

This core capability project’s objective is to increase the value of photovoltaic (PV) performance models by improving their functionality, demonstrating, and quantifying their validity, and offering a wide range of stakeholder engagement opportunities. In FY22-24, we developed new and improved modeling algorithms and functions to represent PV performance more accurately in a variety of environments and conditions. The “Model parameter toolkit” was developed and includes functions to translate between different module temperature models, incidence angle modifier models, and single-diode models. A new modeling capability named “PV Atlas” was also developed leveraging Sandia’s High Performance Computing resources. This capability allows us to investigate several questions and provide climate-specific best practices and geographic data files; all these are hosted on an interactive website on Sandia’s GitHub and can be used for training, system optimization, or to provide best practices for uncertainty reduction. For model validation, we published high-quality PV performance, and weather data; these data are well documented, filtered, and processed for quality and include examples on how to run PV simulations. We also developed well documented, standardized methods for validating PV models and ran independent model validation and 2 blind modeling intercomparisons engaging with 49 organizations from 17 countries. We co-led and contributed to a growing, well documented and maintained suite of open-source functions for PV modeling (i.e., the pvlib-python) and we outreached to the PV modeling stakeholders via the PVPMC workshops and web resources. In addition, this project supported US representation and leadership for the International Energy Agency (IEA) PVPS Task 13; specifically, members of our team led and supported 3 subtasks on: 1) Best practices for the optimization of bifacial photovoltaic tracking, 2) Extreme weather events and their multiple impact on PV power plants: Risks, failure mechanisms and mitigation strategies, and 3) Best practice guidelines for the use of economic and technical Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). This project resulted in the publications of 14 peer reviewed journal papers, 37 conference presentations, 6 SAND reports, 5 public datasets and 6 new webpages on the PVPMC website. It supported the release of 13 pvlib-python versions where 28 enhancements were from this PV Performance Modeling project. We co-organized 5 PVPMC workshops in FY22-24 with the participation of 214 unique institutions and around 700 participants. The PVPMC website was redesigned, and its reliability was improved; it receives over 50,000 visitors/year from 202 unique countries.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Feasibility of Transactive Approach for Voltage Management Using Inverters of a PV Plant

This article evaluates the feasibility of a double-auction-based Transactive Energy System (TES) for engaging the reactive power (Var) capability of inverters in a utility-scale pho¬tovoltaic (PV) plant for voltage management in distribution feed¬ers. In this approach, a PV plant owner (seller) provides Var supply curves in terms of price-quantity pairs consider¬ing the inverters’ P-Q capability, efficiency, opportunity cost for real power curtail¬ment, losses, etc. At the same time, the utility (buyer) proposes Var demand curves in price-quantity pairs exhibiting the marginal price of Var. Then, market clearing points are obtained from the intersection points of supply and demand curves which are then used to create Var dispatch sig-nals from the PV plant. To conduct a fea¬sibility study of this approach, an Australian distribution network with a utility-scale PV plant (capacity 3.275 MWP) is modeled in RSCAD and simu¬lated in real-time on MATLAB, RSCAD-RTDS co-simulation platform using real historical data. Consid¬ering a use case, namely, conservation voltage reduction (CVR), the operational feasibility along with cost-benefit analysis is demonstrated in software-in-the-loop (SIL) and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) platform. Another use case, exploring the benefit from tap-change reduction of step-voltage-regulator, is investigated. These studies explore further use cases, e.g., PV hosting capacity, network reconfiguration, etc., to be incorporated in TES for experiencing substantial economic benefits.

Alam, Mollah Rezaul↗

Reducing the computational burden of a microgrid energy management system

As renewable technology advances and decreases in cost, microgrids are becoming an appealing means of distributed generation both for isolated communities and integrated with existing electrical grid systems. Due to their small size, however, microgrids may have financial limitations which preclude them from using commercial software to optimize control of their assets. Open-source optimization solvers are a viable alternative, but increase computation time. This work expands on a rolling horizon optimization framework for economic dispatch within an existing residential microgrid located in Hoover, Alabama. The microgrid has an open-source solver requirement and a need for quick solution time on a rolling horizon as opposed to a day-ahead commitment. We present a method of reducing integer variables by relaxation which completes two goals: reduction in computation time for real-time operations, and reduction in daily operational cost for the microgrid. Seasonal data for load and photovoltaic (PV) power was also collected from the microgrid to facilitate simulation testing. Computation time was successfully reduced using multiple variations of the relaxation method, while obtaining solution quality with operational cost similar to or better than the original model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Design and performance assessment of a dual-mode latent thermal storage integrated heat pump across multiple climate zones

The electrification of space cooling and heating systems risks overloading the existing electrical grid during peak hours. Heat pumps integrated with thermal energy storage (HP-TES) offer a promising solution by shifting peak loads to off-peak hours, reducing grid strains. This work presents the design and assessment of a dual-mode HP-TES that uses a single 22°C phase-change material (PCM) as a heat source or sink in heating and cooling modes, respectively. Performance assessment was conducted using Modelica-based transient models, and full-year simulations were conducted across eight US climate zones using typical weather data. Two HP-TES performance metrics: peak energy reduction and recharge energy increases, were defined by comparing HP-TES energy consumption with base HP peak consumptions. Annual heating demand reductions (40–65%) exceeded cooling demand reductions (15–20%) due to the elimination of peak-hour backup heating. Cooling mode recharge energy requirements (0–10%) were reduced in locations with lower summer nighttime temperatures, while heating recharge requirements were lower than the high base-peak energy demand from backup heating. Simplified rapid methods that were 10 7 times faster than annual simulations were developed to predict seasonal cooling and heating energy reductions, and recharge energy requirements, with maximum deviations of ±2.5% and ±3.5% points. These methods enabled rapid parametric studies that identified optimal location-specific PCM temperatures between 22°C and 27°C, highlighting the need to consider both discharge and recharge energy requirements to achieve sustainable, energy-efficient peak load shifting across various climate zones.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A reforecasting-based dynamic reserve estimation for variable renewable generation and demand uncertainty

The installed capacity of renewables-based energy sources has been increasing in traditional power systems. In order to accommodate the increased variability and uncertainty associated with the deeper penetration of renewable sources like solar and wind, adjusted amounts of dynamic reserve are needed. Although probabilistic dynamic reserve estimation methods have been previously developed, most of them consider the uncertainty to be represented by parametric density functions that tend to perform poorly under extreme events and, moreover, neglect uncertainty introduced by the forecasting model itself. Toward addressing these limitations, this work presents, for the first time, a dynamic reserve estimation method for flexibility that incorporates nonparametric density estimation and a machine learning based reforecasting to provide a day-ahead prediction of the mean and spread of uncertainty around the base forecast. The prediction is, in turn, used to estimate the up and down reserve relative to the base forecast. Here, the present method takes various endogenous and exogenous features, including the calendar variables, as input to estimate the day-ahead reserve. Using a combination of reforecasting and dynamic reserve estimation techniques, the method is shown to adjust better to the dynamic nature of reserve requirements providing only what is needed to accommodate the expected deviations. Considering California Independent System Operator (CAISO) solar, wind and load data over an 18 month period, up to 67% reduction in the amount of reserve capacity needed for a one day reserve and reserve penalty for solar uncertainty is demonstrated. Additionally, the risk of reserve insufficiency in meeting the net demand is reduced by 20% with the proposed method.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Compromise between band structure and phonon scattering in efficient n-Mg 3 Sb 2-x Bi x thermoelectrics

n-type Mg 3 Sb 2 -based materials have become a top candidate for efficient thermoelectric applications within 300–700 K, due to its high band degeneracy, inherently high carrier mobility and low lattice thermal conductivity, as well as its advantages of less toxicity and abundance. Existing works showed that Mg 3 Bi 2 -alloying largely help ensure the exceptional performance, leaving a key issue to be uncovered on the primary mechanisms favoring or limiting the thermoelectric performance of Mg 3 Sb 2-x Bi x alloys. Furthermore we focus on the alloy composition dependent transport properties at various temperatures, with a large volume of experimental data. It is revealed that, with increasing x, the reduction in both inertial mass and lattice thermal conductivity is significantly beneficial, but the closure in band gap leads to a strong compensation due to the bipolar effect. Such a compromise between band structure and phonon scattering results in optimal Mg 3 Bi 2 -alloying concentrations to be about 50%–75% at 300 K, 50%–60% at 450 K and 50% at 600 K, which successfully guiding this work to realize extraordinary thermoelectric figure of merit at these temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Linear versus Bent Uranium(II) Metallocenes—A Local Vibrational Mode Study

Uranium metallocenes have recently attracted attention driven by their use as catalysts in organometallic synthesis. In addition to bent U(IV) and U(III), an U(II) metallocene [(η 5 -C 5 i Pr 5 ) 2 U] was synthesized with an unusual linear Cp–U–Cp angle. Here, in this work, we investigated 22 U(II) metallocenes, (i) assessing the intrinsic strength of the U-ring interactions in these complexes with a novel bond strength measure based on our local vibrational mode analysis and (ii) systematically exploring what makes these U(II) metallocenes bent. We included relativistic effects through the NESCau Hamiltonian and complemented the local mode analysis with natural bonding orbital (NBO) and quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) data. Our study led to the following results: (i) reduction of bulky U-ring ligand substituents does not lead to bent complexes for alkyl substituents ( i Pr and i Bu) in contrast to SiMe 3 ring substituents, which are all bent. (ii) The most bent complexes are [(η 5 -C 5 H 4 SiMe 3 ) 2 U] (130°) and [η 5 -P 5 H 5 ) 2 U] (143°). (iii) Linear complexes showed one hybridized NBO with s/d character, while bent structures were characterized by s/d/f mixing. (iv) We did not observe a correlation between the strength of the U-ring interaction and the amount of the ring-U-ring bend; the strongest interaction was found for [η 5 -Cp) 2 U] and the weakest for [η 5 -P 5 H 5 ) 2 U]. In conclusion, our results provide a foundation for the design of U(II) metallocenes with specific physicochemical properties and increased reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reduced Recombination and Improved Performance of CdSe/CdTe Solar Cells due to Cu Migration Induced by Light Soaking

The performance of CdTe solar cells has advanced impressively in recent years with the incorporation of Se. Instabilities associated with light soaking and copper reorganization have been extensively examined for the previous generation of CdS/CdTe solar cells, but instabilities in Cu-doped Se-alloyed CdTe devices remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we fabricated a range of CdSe/CdTe solar cells by sputtering CdSe layers with thicknesses of 100, 120, 150, 180, and 200 nm on transparent oxide-coated glass and then depositing CdTe by close-spaced sublimation. After CdCl 2 annealing, Cu-doping, and back metal deposition, a variety of analyses were performed both before and after light soaking to understand the changes in device performance. The device efficiency was degraded with light soaking in most cases, but devices fabricated with a CdSe layer thickness of 120 nm showed reasonably good efficiency initially (13.5%) and a dramatic improvement with light soaking (16.5%). Here, the efficiency improvement is examined within the context of Cu ion reorganization that is well known for CdS/CdTe devices. Low-temperature photoluminescence data and V oc versus temperature measurements indicate a reduction in nonradiative recombination due to the passivation of defects and defect complexes in the graded CdSe x Te 1–x layer.

CdSexTe1−x↗

A machine learning estimator trained on synthetic data for real-time earthquake ground-shaking predictions in Southern California

Abstract After large-magnitude earthquakes, a crucial task for impact assessment is to rapidly and accurately estimate the ground shaking in the affected region. To satisfy real-time constraints, intensity measures are traditionally evaluated with empirical Ground Motion Models that can drastically limit the accuracy of the estimated values. As an alternative, here we present Machine Learning strategies trained on physics-based simulations that require similar evaluation times. We trained and validated the proposed Machine Learning-based Estimator for ground shaking maps with one of the largest existing datasets (<100M simulated seismograms) from CyberShake developed by the Southern California Earthquake Center covering the Los Angeles basin. For a well-tailored synthetic database, our predictions outperform empirical Ground Motion Models provided that the events considered are compatible with the training data. Using the proposed strategy we show significant error reductions not only for synthetic, but also for five real historical earthquakes, relative to empirical Ground Motion Models.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗