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Artificial intelligence will be deployed increasingly in more systems that affect public health, safety, and welfare. These systems will better utilize scarce resources; prevent disasters; and increase safety, reliability, comfort, and convenience. Despite the technological challenges and public fears, these systems will improve the quality of life of millions of people worldwide.
Information systems play a pivotal role in emergency response by making consequence analysis models based on up-to-date data available to decision makers. While consequence analysis models have been used for years on local scales, their application on national and global scales has been constrained by lack of non-proprietary data. This chapter describes how this has changed using a framework for real-time all-hazards situational awareness called the Energy Awareness and Resiliency Standardized Services (EARSS) as an example. EARSS is a system of systems developed to collect non-proprietary data from diverse open content sources to develop a geodatabase of critical infrastructures all over the world. The EARSS system shows that it is feasible to provide global disaster alerts by producing valuable information such as texting messages about detected hazards, emailing reports about affected areas, estimating an expected number of impacted people and their demographic characteristics, identifying critical infrastructures that may be affected, and analyzing potential downstream effects. This information is provided in real-time to federal agencies and subscribers all over the world for decision making in humanitarian assistance and emergency response. The system also uses live streams of power outages, weather, and satellite surveillance data as events unfold. This, in turn, is combined with other public domain or open content information, such as media reports and postings on social networking websites, for complete coverage of the situation as events unfold. Working with up-to-date information from the EARSS system, emergency responders on the ground could pre-position their staff and resources, such as emergency generators and ice, where they are most needed.
Scholars from various disciplines have long attempted to identify the variables most closely associated with individual preparedness. Therefore, we now have much more knowledge regarding these factors and their association with individual preparedness behaviors. However, it has not been sufficiently discussed how decisive many of these factors are in encouraging preparedness. In this article, we seek to examine what factors, among the many examined in previous studies, are most central to engendering emergency preparedness in individuals particularly for tornadoes by utilizing a relatively uncommon machine learning technique in disaster management literature. Using unique survey data, we find that in the case of tornado preparedness the most decisive variables are related to personal experiences and economic circumstances rather than basic demographics. Our findings contribute to scholarly endeavors to understand and promote individual tornado preparedness behaviors by highlighting the variables most likely to shape tornado preparedness at an individual level.
An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.
An integrated risk is a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident caused by multiple hazards. An integrated probability risk is the expected value of disaster. Due to the difficulty of assessing an integrated probability risk with a small sample, weighting methods and copulas are employed to avoid this obstacle. To resolve the problem, in this paper, we develop the information diffusion technique to construct a joint probability distribution and a vulnerability surface. Then, an integrated risk can be directly assessed by using a small sample. A case of an integrated risk caused by flood and earthquake is given to show how the suggested technique is used to assess the integrated risk of annual property loss.
Highlights: • Cross sectional analyses of crude oil/dispersant exposures and acute respiratory symptoms in disaster responders. • Elevated prevalence ratios for coughing, shortness of breath, and wheezing with crude oil exposure. • Increasing crude oil inhalation and dermal contact showed increasing likelihood for respiratory symptoms. • Combination of crude oil and dispersants showed associations greater in magnitude than oil alone. • We found strong relationships between crude oil/dispersant exposures and acute respiratory symptoms. Over 8500 United States Coast Guard (USCG) personnel were deployed in response to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill; however, human respiratory effects as a result of spill-related exposures are relatively unknown.
Highlights: • Paper considers the role of delayed non-targeted effects (DNTE) in environmental radiation protection (ERP). • Comparison of the DNTE dose response relationship (DRR) in Chernobyl birds 9–11 generations after accident. • Dose reconstruction suggests the pattern of DNTE induced by the historical dose is similar datasets. • Conclude the historic dose contribution is important to consider. The impact of the Chernobyl NPP accident on the environment is documented to be greater than expected, with higher mutation rates than expected at the current, chronic low dose rate. In this paper we suggest that the historic acute exposure and resulting non-targeted effects (NTE) such as delayed mutations and genomic instability could account at least in part for currently measured mutation rates and provide an initial test of this concept. Data from Møller and Mousseau on the phenotypic mutation rates of Chernobyl birds 9–11 generations post the Chernobyl accident were used and the reconstructed dose response for mutations was compared with delayed reproductive death dose responses (as a measure of genomic instability) in cell cultures exposed to a similar range of doses. The dose to birds present during the Chernobyl NPP accident was reconstructed through the external pathway due to Cs-137 with an estimate of the uncertainty associated with such reconstruction. The percentage of Chernobyl birds several generations after the accident without mutations followed the general shape of the clonogenic survival percentage of the progeny of irradiated cells, and it plateaued at low doses. This is the expected result if NTE of radiation are involved. We suggest therefore, that NTE induced by the historic dose may play a role in generating mutations in progeny many generations following the initial disaster.
Biomass is the predominant cooking fuel in Haiti, where it creates burdens on both the environment and the Haitian people. Following the 2010 earthquake in Port-au-Prince, the need for fuel-efficient cookstoves was acute. Although several organizations were quite interested in dissemination of fuel-efficient stoves in the relief effort, there was little knowledge about the performance and usability of the proposed stoves. To help fill the knowledge gap, stove researchers from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory evaluated and compared the performance of several cookstoves intended for dissemination in Haiti. This paper discusses the decisions made throughout the course of that work, from project identification and approach through the dissemination of results. It identifies the challenges faced and how they were addressed, while briefly presenting the data from stove performance evaluated using Water Boiling and Controlled Cooking Tests. Furthermore, it also highlights the importance and benefits of evaluating technologies such as cookstoves prior to dissemination, even in urgent disaster relief situations.
Disastrous events have been drastically increasing – both in frequency and destructive capacity – over the past few years. While advance-notice events have received a great deal of attention in the literature of disaster management, not much attention so far has been given to the no-notice events mainly because of the scarcity of data. As an attempt to address this critical gap, the current study proposes a disaggregate evacuation demand framework to understand evacuees’ travel behavior in case of no-notice emergency events. Here, the proposed framework comprises four main steps of evacuation decision, evacuation planning, tour formation, and activity schedule update. This article is dedicated to the introduction of the framework structure and elaboration on the tour formation step. In this step, we first estimate the total number of intermediate stops, travel time, and distance of the evacuation tours for those who decide to evacuate through a joint modeling structure and then, determine the type of each intermediate stop (if any). It is found that a broad range of factors including evacuees’ demographic profiles, built-environment attributes, and characteristics of the disastrous event plays a significant role in people’s evacuation behavior during no-notice emergency events. The findings of this study can assist responsible agencies in understanding evacuees’ complex behavior, and consequently, in devising effective strategies to alleviate economic damages and casualties resulted by such events.
We report a national need is to prepare for and respond to accidental or intentional disasters categorized as chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive (CBRNE). These incidents require specific subject-matter expertise, yet have commonalities. We identify 7 core elements comprising CBRNE science that require integration for effective preparedness planning and public health and medical response and recovery. These core elements are (1) basic and clinical sciences, (2) modeling and systems management, (3) planning, (4) response and incident management, (5) recovery and resilience, (6) lessons learned, and (7) continuous improvement. A key feature is the ability of relevant subject matter experts to integrate information into response operations. We propose the CBRNE medical operations science support expert as a professional who (1) understands that CBRNE incidents require an integrated systems approach, (2) understands the key functions and contributions of CBRNE science practitioners, (3) helps direct strategic and tactical CBRNE planning and responses through first-hand experience, and (4) provides advice to senior decision-makers managing response activities. Recognition of both CBRNE science as a distinct competency and the establishment of the CBRNE medical operations science support expert informs the public of the enormous progress made, broadcasts opportunities for new talent, and enhances the sophistication and analytic expertise of senior managers planning for and responding to CBRNE incidents.
Comprehensive chemical information is needed to understand the environmental fate and impact of hydrocarbons released during oil spills. However, chemical information remains incomplete because of the limitations of current analytical techniques and the inherent chemical complexity of crude oils. In this study, gas chromatography (GC)-amenable C 9 -C 33 hydrocarbons were comprehensively characterized from the National Institute of Standards and Technology Standard Reference Material (NIST SRM) 2779 Gulf of Mexico crude oil by GC coupled to vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry (GC/VUV-MS), with a mass balance of 68 ± 22%. This technique overcomes one important limitation faced by traditional GC and even comprehensive 2D gas chromatography (GC×GC): the necessity for individual compounds to be chromatographically resolved from one another in order to be characterized. VUV photoionization minimizes fragmentation of the molecular ions, facilitating the characterization of the observed hydrocarbons as a function of molecular weight (carbon number, N C ), structure (number of double bond equivalents, N DBE ), and mass fraction (mg kg -1 ), which represent important metrics for understanding their fate and environmental impacts. Linear alkanes (8 ± 1%), bran ched alkanes (11 ± 2%), and cycloalkanes (37 ± 12%) dominated the mass with the largest contribution from cycloalkanes containing one or two rings and one or more alkyl side chains (27 ± 9%). Linearity and good agreement with previous work for a subset of >100 components and for the sum of compound classes provided confidence in our measurements and represents the first independent assessment of our analytical approach and calibration methodology. Another crude oil collected from the Marlin platform (35 km northeast of the Macondo well) was shown to be chemically identical within experimental errors to NIST SRM 2779, demonstrating that Marlin crude is an appropriate surrogate oil for researchers conducting laboratory research into impacts of the DeepWater Horizon disaster.
Toba area has complex tectonic setting attracting many earth scientists to study and understand tectonic and geological process or setting. The area is affected by oblique subduction zone, Renun Sumatran fault sub segment and some volcanoes that are near it. The earthquake catalogue provided by BMKG from April, 2009 to December, 2011 must be relocated firstly to get the precise hypocenter. We used catalogue data of P and S phase or P phase only and double-difference method to relocate the earthquakes. The results show hypocenter position enhancement that can be interpreted tectonically. The earthquakes after relocation relating to the Sumatran fault, subduction zone, volcanoes and seismic activities beneath Toba caldera can be mapped clearly. The relocated hypocenters in this study are very important to provide information for seismic hazard assessment and disaster mitigation study.
DOMERAPI project has been conducted to comprehensively study the internal structure of Merapi volcano, especially about deep structural features beneath the volcano. DOMERAPI earthquake monitoring network consists of 46 broad-band seismometers installed around the Merapi volcano. Earthquake hypocenter determination is a very important step for further studies, such as hypocenter relocation and seismic tomographic imaging. Ray paths from earthquake events occurring outside the Merapi region can be utilized to delineate the deep magma structure. Earthquakes occurring outside the DOMERAPI seismic network will produce an azimuthal gap greater than 180{sup 0}. Owing to this situation the stations from BMKG seismic network can be used jointly to minimize the azimuthal gap. We identified earthquake events manually and carefully, and then picked arrival times of P and S waves. The data from the DOMERAPI seismic network were combined with the BMKG data catalogue to determine earthquake events outside the Merapi region. For future work, we will also use the BPPTKG (Center for Research and Development of Geological Disaster Technology) data catalogue in order to study shallow structures beneath the Merapi volcano. The application of all data catalogues will provide good information as input for further advanced studies and volcano hazards mitigation.
The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.
Study with entitled Vulnerability Karangkates Dam Area By Means of Zero Crossing Analysis of Data Magnetic has been done. The study was aimed to obtain information on the vulnerability of two parts area of Karangkates dams, i.e. Lahor dam which was inaugurated in 1977 and Sutami dam inaugurated in 1981. Three important things reasons for this study are: 1). The dam age was 36 years old for Lahor dam and 32 years old for Sutami dam, 2). Geologically, the location of the dams are closed together to the Pohgajih local shear fault, Selorejo local fault, and Selorejo limestone-andesite rocks contact plane, and 3). Karangkates dams is one of the important Hydro Power Plant PLTA with the generating power of about 400 million KWH per year from a total of about 29.373MW installed in Indonesia. Geographically, the magnetic data acquisition was conducted at coordinates (112.4149oE;-8.2028oS) to (112.4839oE;-8.0989oS) by using Proton Precession Magnetometer G-856. Magnetic Data acquisition was conducted in the radial direction from the dams with diameter of about 10 km and the distance between the measurements about 500m. The magnetic data acquisition obtained the distribution of total magnetic field value in the range of 45800 nT to 44450 nT. Residual anomalies obtained by doing some corrections, including diurnal correction, International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) correction, and reductions so carried out the distribution of the total magnetic field value in the range of -650 nT to 700 nT. Based on the residual anomalies, indicate the presence of 2 zones of closed closures dipole pairs at located in the west of the Sutami dam and the northwest of the Lahor dam from 5 total zones. Overlapping on the local geological map indicated the lineament of zero crossing patterns in the contour of residual anomaly contour with the Pohgajih shear fault where located at about 4 km to the west of the Sutami dam approximately and andesite-limestone rocks contact where located at about 6 km to the west of the Lahor dam approximately. These shown a possible of vulnerability on geohazards at the west zone of the Karangkates (Lahor-Sutami) dams area if there are triggers by the vibration (earthquake) on the Pohgajih shear fault, andesite-limestone contact plane, and instability rocks on two zones of closed closure dipole pairs area. Reality, on the location of the study shown some local landslide at the several locations and the main road that need considering for disaster mitigation.
The 101 nuclear plants operating in the US today are far safer than they were 20-30 years ago. For example, there's been about a 100-fold reduction in the occurrence of 'significant events' since the late 1970s. Although the youngest of currently operating US plants was designed in the 1970s, all have been significantly modified over the years. Key contributors to the safety gains are a vigilant culture, much improved equipment reliability, greatly improved training of operators and maintenance workers, worldwide sharing of experience, and the effective use of probabilistic risk assessment. Several manufacturers have submitted high quality new designs for large reactors to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for design approval, and several companies are vigorously working on designs for smaller, modular reactors. Although the Fukushima reactor accident in March 2011 in Japan has been an almost unmitigated disaster for the local population due to their being displaced from their homes and workplaces and also due to the land contamination, its 'lessons learned' have been important for the broader nuclear industry, and will surely result in safer nuclear plants worldwide - indeed, have already done so, with more safety improvements to come.
In this paper, we present a model to classify the earthquakes occurred in Molluca Province. We use K-Means clustering method to classify the earthquake based on the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake. The result can be used for disaster mitigation and for designing evacuation route in Molluca Province.
In this study; we examined one dimensional crustal velocity structure of Izmir gulf and surroundings. We used nearly one thousand high quality (A and B class) earthquake data which recorded by Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) [1], Bogazici University (BU-KOERI) [2] and National Observatory of Athens (NOA) [3,4]. We tried several synthetic tests to understand power of new velocity structure, and examined phase residuals, RMS values and shifting tests. After evaluating these tests; we decided one dimensional velocity structure and minimum 1-D P wave velocities, hypocentral parameter and earthquake locations from VELEST algorithm. Distribution of earthquakes was visibly improved by using new minimum velocity structure.