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At least 613 records · Page 34

Proximal remote sensing: an essential tool for bridging the gap between high‐resolution ecosystem monitoring and global ecology

Summary A new proliferation of optical instruments that can be attached to towers over or within ecosystems, or ‘proximal’ remote sensing, enables a comprehensive characterization of terrestrial ecosystem structure, function, and fluxes of energy, water, and carbon. Proximal remote sensing can bridge the gap between individual plants, site‐level eddy‐covariance fluxes, and airborne and spaceborne remote sensing by providing continuous data at a high‐spatiotemporal resolution. Here, we review recent advances in proximal remote sensing for improving our mechanistic understanding of plant and ecosystem processes, model development, and validation of current and upcoming satellite missions. We provide current best practices for data availability and metadata for proximal remote sensing: spectral reflectance, solar‐induced fluorescence, thermal infrared radiation, microwave backscatter, and LiDAR. Our paper outlines the steps necessary for making these data streams more widespread, accessible, interoperable, and information‐rich, enabling us to address key ecological questions unanswerable from space‐based observations alone and, ultimately, to demonstrate the feasibility of these technologies to address critical questions in local and global ecology.

Plant Sciences↗

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SIDDA: SInkhorn Dynamic Domain Adaptation

Modern neural networks (NNs) often do not generalize well in the presence of a "covariate shift"; that is, in situations where the training and test data distributions differ, but the conditional distribution of classification labels remains unchanged. In such cases, NN generalization can be reduced to a problem of learning more domain-invariant features. Domain adaptation (DA) methods include a range of techniques aimed at achieving this; however, these methods have struggled with the need for extensive hyperparameter tuning, which then incurs significant computational costs. In this work, we introduce SIDDA, an out-of-the-box DA training algorithm built upon the Sinkhorn divergence, that can achieve effective domain alignment with minimal hyperparameter tuning and computational overhead. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on multiple simulated and real datasets of varying complexity, including simple shapes, handwritten digits, and real astronomical observations. SIDDA is compatible with a variety of NN architectures, and it works particularly well in improving classification accuracy and model calibration when paired with equivariant neural networks (ENNs). We find that SIDDA enhances the generalization capabilities of NNs, achieving up to a ≈40% improvement in classification accuracy on unlabeled target data. We also study the efficacy of DA on ENNs with respect to the varying group orders of the dihedral group DN, and find that the model performance improves as the degree of equivariance increases. Finally, we find that SIDDA enhances model calibration on both source and target data--achieving over an order of magnitude improvement in the ECE and Brier score. SIDDA's versatility, combined with its automated approach to domain alignment, has the potential to advance multi-dataset studies by enabling the development of highly generalizable models.

Pandya, Sneh [Northeastern U.]↗

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Saturn gravity results obtained from Pioneer 11 tracking data and earth-based Saturn satellite data

Improved gravity coefficients for Saturn, its satellites and rings are calculated on the basis of a combination of Pioneer 11 spacecraft Doppler tracking data and earth-based determinations of Saturn natural satellite apse and node rates. Solutions are first obtained separately from the coherent Doppler tracking data obtained for the interval from August 20 to September 4, surrounding the time of closest approach, with the effects of solar plasma on radio signal propagation taken into account, and from secular rates for Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Dione, Rhea and Titan determined from astrometric data by Kozai (1957, 1976) and Garcia (1972). Combination of the data by the use of the Pioneer solution and corresponding unadjusted covariance matrix as a priori information for a secular rate analysis results in values for the total ring mass of essentially zero at a standard error level of 1.7 x 10 to the -6th Saturn masses, a ratio of solar mass to that of the Saturn system of 3498.09 + or - 0.22, masses of Rhea, Titan and Iapetus of 4.0 + or - 0.9, 238.8 + or - 3, and 3.4 + or - 1.3 x 10 to the -6th Saturn masses, respectively, and second and fourth zonal harmonics of 16,479 + or - 18 and -937 + or - 38, respectively. The harmonic coefficients are noted to be important as boundary conditions in the modeling of the Saturn interior.

Null, G. W.↗

The possible modifications of the Hisse model for pure LANDSAT agricultural data

An idea, due to A. Feiveson, is presented for relaxing the assumption of class conditional independence of LANDSAT spectral measurements within the same patch (field). Theoretical arguments are given which show that any significant refinement of the model beyond Feiveson's proposal will not allow the reduction, essential to HISSE, of the pure data to patch summary statistics. A slight alteration of the new model is shown to be a reasonable approximation to the model which describes pure data elements from the same patch as jointly Guassian with a covariance function which exhibits exponential decay with respect to spatial separation.

Peters, C.↗

The possible modifications of the HISSE model for pure LANDSAT agricultural data

A method for relaxing the assumption of class conditional independence of LANDSAT spectral measurements within the same patch (field) is discussed. Theoretical arguments are given which show that any significant refinement of the model beyond this proposal will not allow the reduction, essential to HISSE, of the pure data to patch summary statistics. A slight alteration of the new model is shown to be a reasonable approximation to the model which describes pure data elements from the same patch as jointly Gaussian with a covariance function which exhibits exponential decay with respect to spatial separation.

Peters, C.↗

Polarimetric clutter modeling: Theory and application

The two-layer anisotropic random medium model is used to investigate fully polarimetric scattering properties of earth terrain media. The polarization covariance matrices for the untilted and tilted uniaxial random medium are evaluated using the strong fluctuation theory and distorted Born approximation. In order to account for the azimuthal randomness in the growth direction of leaves in tree and grass fields, an averaging scheme over the azimuthal direction is also applied. It is found that characteristics of terrain clutter can be identified through the analysis of each element of the covariance matrix. Theoretical results are illustrated by the comparison with experimental data provided by MIT Lincoln Laboratory for tree and grass fields.

Kong, J. A.↗

A tool for manual endmember selection and spectral unmixing

Sampling a continuous radiance spectrum in many narrow contiguous spectral bands results in a high covariance between the bands. Hence, the true dimensionality of imaging spectrometer data is not determined by the number of spectral bands, but by the number of spectrally unique signatures whose mixtures reproduce the spectral variance observed in an image. Methods to unmix high dimensional multispectral data use principal components analysis to reduce the dimensionality. The variance of the spectral data is modeled as a linear combination of a finite set of endmembers in the space of the eigen-vectors that account for most of the variance. The number and characteristics of these endmembers are determined not only by the number and characteristics of the spectrally unique materials on the surface but also by processes (e.g., illumination, atmospheric scattering and absorption) affecting the signal received by the sensor. Selection of endmember spectra has typically been from a library. However, since most libraries are incomplete and do not account for the processes mentioned above, we have devised a computer display that allows researchers to explore interactively the eigenvector space of a representative and mean-corrected subset of the image data in search of extreme spectra to designate as endmembers. This display, which is based on parallel coordinates, is unique in the area of multidimensional visualization in that it includes not only a passive view of higher dimensional data but also the capability to interact and move geometrical objects in higher dimensional spaces.

Bateson, C. Ann↗

An automated method of tuning an attitude estimator

Attitude determination is a major element of the operation and maintenance of a spacecraft. There are several existing methods of determining the attitude of a spacecraft. One of the most commonly used methods utilizes the Kalman filter to estimate the attitude of the spacecraft. Given an accurate model of a system and adequate observations, a Kalman filter can produce accurate estimates of the attitude. If the system model, filter parameters, or observations are inaccurate, the attitude estimates may be degraded. Therefore, it is advantageous to develop a method of automatically tuning the Kalman filter to produce the accurate estimates. In this paper, a three-axis attitude determination Kalman filter, which uses only magnetometer measurements, is developed and tested using real data. The appropriate filter parameters are found via the Process Noise Covariance Estimator (PNCE). The PNCE provides an optimal criterion for determining the best filter parameters.

Mason, Paul A. C.↗

Improved Stratospheric Temperature Retrievals for Climate Reanalysis

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is embarking on plans to generate a twenty year reanalysis data set of climatic atmospheric variables. One of the focus points will be in the evaluation of the dynamics of the stratosphere. The Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU), flown as part of the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), is one of the primary stratospheric temperature sensors flown consistently throughout the reanalysis period. Seven unique sensors made the measurements over time, with individual instrument characteristics that need to be addressed. The stratospheric temperatures being assimilated across satellite platforms will profoundly impact the reanalysis dynamical fields. To attempt to quantify aspects of instrument and retrieval bias we are carefully collecting and analyzing all available information on the sensors, their instrument anomalies, forward model errors and retrieval biases. For the retrieval of stratospheric temperatures, we adapted the minimum variance approach of Jazwinski (1970) and Rodgers (1976) and applied it to the SSU soundings. In our algorithm, the state vector contains an initial guess of temperature from a model six hour forecast provided by the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS/DAS). This is combined with an a priori covariance matrix, a forward model parameterization, and specifications of instrument noise characteristics. A quasi-Newtonian iteration is used to obtain convergence of the retrieved state to the measurement vector. This algorithm also enables us to analyze and address the systematic errors associated with the unique characteristics of the cell pressures on the individual SSU instruments and the resolving power of the instruments to vertical gradients in the stratosphere. The preliminary results of the improved retrievals and their assimilation as well as baseline calculations of bias and rms error between the NESDIS operational product and col-located ground measurements will be presented.

Rokke, L.↗

A Parametric Study of Fine-scale Turbulence Mixing Noise

The present paper is a study of aerodynamic noise spectra from model functions that describe the source. The study is motivated by the need to improve the spectral shape of the MGBK jet noise prediction methodology at high frequency. The predicted spectral shape usually appears less broadband than measurements and faster decaying at high frequency. Theoretical representation of the source is based on Lilley's equation. Numerical simulations of high-speed subsonic jets as well as some recent turbulence measurements reveal a number of interesting statistical properties of turbulence correlation functions that may have a bearing on radiated noise. These studies indicate that an exponential spatial function may be a more appropriate representation of a two-point correlation compared to its Gaussian counterpart. The effect of source non-compactness on spectral shape is discussed. It is shown that source non-compactness could well be the differentiating factor between the Gaussian and exponential model functions. In particular, the fall-off of the noise spectra at high frequency is studied and it is shown that a non-compact source with an exponential model function results in a broader spectrum and better agreement with data. An alternate source model that represents the source as a covariance of the convective derivative of fine-scale turbulence kinetic energy is also examined.

Khavaran, Abbas↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 Results: Weak Lensing and Galaxy Clustering Cosmological Analysis Framework

We present the methodology for the weak lensing and galaxy clustering analyses of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 data set. In this work, we design and validate the analysis pipeline for the cosmic shear, galaxy clustering plus galaxy$-$galaxy lensing ($2 \times 2$pt), and the joint analysis in the $3 \times 2$pt. Our framework accounts for key theoretical uncertainties, such as baryonic feedback and galaxy bias, incorporating both linear and non-linear models. We apply scale cuts in regimes where theoretical modeling becomes unreliable. The robustness of the pipeline is validated using mock data and simulations, confirming unbiased cosmological constraints and highlighting the importance of posterior projection effects in the validation process. As a result, we deliver robust and validated analysis pipelines for cosmic shear, $2 \times 2$pt, and $3 \times 2$pt in $Λ$CDM and $w$CDM scenarios, including a well-defined set of scales suitable for real data analysis, a robust prescription for theoretical systematics, and the theoretical covariance of the signal. This comprehensive methodology also lays the groundwork for future galaxy surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

Sanchez-Cid, D. [Zurich U.; Madrid, CIEMAT; Madrid↗

Precise navigation for the Earth Observing System (EOS)-AM1 spacecraft using the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS)

As the baseline navigation system for the Earth Observing System (EOS)-AM1 spacecraft, the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) is required to provide precise position and velocity information for imaging instrument calibration and routine operations. This paper presents the results of real-time navigation performance evaluations with respect to TONS-based orbit and frequency determination to satisfy this requirement. Both covariance and simulation analysis of EOS-AM1 navigation accuracy and analysis using operational data from Landsat-4 are presented. Local (half orbit) and global (multiple orbits) tracking are considered using a way-forward link services. Improvements in navigation accuracies by using enhanced gravity models beyond the Goddard Earth Model (GEM)-T3 are also discussed. Key objectives of the analysis are to evaluate nominal performance and potential sensitivities and to address algorithm improvements such as TDRS ephemeris biasing, ionosphere model, and gravity process noise models slated for implementation. Results indicate that TONS can be configured to meet the proposed instrument navigation requirements of 20 meters, 3-sigma.

Folta, David C.↗

Assimilation of Satellite Altimeter Data With a Four Dimensional Model of the Japan Sea

A data assimilation is carried out to detect the variability of the Japan Sea circulation in the range from a few days to several years and from eddy to basin scale. The model applied in this study is the same 1/6 degree GFDL MOM1 as Kim and Yoon (1999) but is driven by ECMWF daily wind stress, heat and fresh water fluxes. The satellite altimeter data of TOPEX/POSEIDON, ERS-1 (phase C and G) and -2 are assimilated by an approximate Kalman filter (Fukumori and M.Rizzoli, 1995). The approximation is made by seeking an asymptotic steady error covariance matrix (Fukumori et al., 1993) and by introducing a coarser grid model for the innovation (data-model misfit). The coarse grid model is defined on 1/2 degree horizontal resolution and consists of the barotropic stream function, first baroclinic displacement and velocity amplitudes. The assimilated estimates explain about 6cm sea level variability of the data (approximately 12cm in the southern part), which is much larger than the previous reduced-gravity model and TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data assimilation (Hirose et al., 1999). The impacts of the T/P and ERS data on the filtered estimates are comparable. The result also shows high correlation to subsurface water temperatures measured by CTD. Many of the mesoscale eddies/disturbances travel east-northeastward with the advection speed of 1-3cm/s though most of them generated in the western region can not pass over the Oki Spur. The quasi-biennial variability found by Hirose and Ostrovskii (1999) did not show clear propagation pattern. The shallow Oki Spur may work as a "western boundary" to this signal. This is more plausible estimation than by the R-G model which has no bottom topography.

Hirose, Naoki↗

Precise Orbit Determination for GEOSAT Follow-On Using Satellite Laser Ranging Data and Intermission Altimeter Crossovers

The U.S. Navy's GEOSAT Follow-On Spacecraft was launched on February 10, 1998 and the primary objective of the mission was to map the oceans using a radar altimeter. Following an extensive set of calibration campaigns in 1999 and 2000, the US Navy formally accepted delivery of the satellite on November 29, 2000. The spacecraft is tracked by satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler (Tranet-style) beacons. Although a limited amount of GPS data were obtained, the primary mode of tracking remains satellite laser ranging. In this paper, we report on progress in orbit determination for GFO using GFO/GFO and TOPEX/GFO altimeter crossovers. We have tuned the nonconservative force model for GFO and the gravity model using SLR, Doppler and altimeter crossover data spanning over one year. Preliminary results show that the predicted radial orbit error from the gravity field covariance to 70x70 on GEOSAT was reduced from 2.6 cm in EGM96 to 1.9 cm with the addition of only five months of the GFO SLR and GFO/GFO crossover data. Further progress is possible with the addition of more data, particularly the TOPEX/GFO crossovers. We will evaluate the tuned GFO gravity model (a derivative of EGM96) using altimeter data from the GEOSAT mission. In January 2000, a limited quantity of GPS data were obtained. We will use these GPS data in conjunction with the SLR and altimeter crossover data obtained over the same time span to compute quasi-reduced dynamic orbits which will also aid in the evaluation of the tuned GFO geopotential model.

Lemoine, F. G.↗

Evaluating the feasibility of using downwind methods to quantify point source oil and gas emissions using continuously monitoring fence-line sensors

The dependable reporting of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from point sources, such as fugitive leaks from oil and gas infrastructure, is important for profit maximization (retaining more hydrocarbons), evaluating climate impacts, assessing CH 4 fees for regulatory programs, and validating CH 4 intensity in differentiated gas programs. Currently, there are disagreements between emissions reported by different quantification techniques for the same sources. It has been suggested that downwind CH 4 quantification methods using CH 4 measurements on the fence line of production facilities could be used to generate emission estimates from oil and gas operations at the site level, but it is currently unclear how accurate the quantified emissions are. To investigate the accuracy of downwind methods, this study uses fence-line simulated data collected during controlled-release experiments as input for a non-standard closed-path eddy covariance (EC), the Gaussian plume inverse model (GPIM), and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) model in a range of atmospheric conditions. This study's EC attempt was unsuccessful due to data collection and instrumentation issues, resulting in invalid results characterized by underestimated emissions, large negative fluxes, and cospectra/ogives that deviated from their ideal shapes. Consequently, the EC results could not be compared with the GPIM and bLS model. The bLs model demonstrated the highest accuracy for single-release single-point emissions, though it exhibited greater uncertainty than GPIM under multi-release conditions. Across the GPIM and bLs model, the most reliable quantification was achieved with 15 min averaging and a narrow 5° wind sector range. Although EC was limited in this context, future studies should consider employing a standard EC system and further optimizing GPIM and bLs approaches – particularly for complex multi-source scenarios – to enhance quantification accuracy and reduce uncertainty.

03 NATURAL GAS↗