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At least 613 records · Page 34

Iterative self-organizing SCEne-LEvel sampling (ISOSCELES) for large-scale building extraction

Convolutional neural networks (CNN) provide state-of-the-art performance in many computer vision tasks, including those related to remote-sensing image analysis. Successfully training a CNN to generalize well to unseen data, however, requires training on samples that represent the full distribution of variation of both the target classes and their surrounding contexts. With remote sensing data, acquiring a sufficiently representative training set is a challenge due to both the inherent multi-modal variability of satellite or aerial imagery and the general high cost of labeling data. To address this challenge, we have developed ISOSCELES, an Iterative Self-Organizing SCEne LEvel Sampling method for hierarchical sampling of large image sets. Using affinity propagation, ISOSCELES automates the selection of highly representative training images. Compared to random sampling or using available reference data, the distribution of the training is principally data driven, reducing the chance of oversampling uninformative areas or undersampling informative ones. In comparison to manual sample selection by an analyst, ISOSCELES exploits descriptive features, spectral and/or textural, and eliminates human bias in sample selection. Using a hierarchical sampling approach, ISOSCELES can obtain a training set that reflects both between-scene variability, such as in viewing angle and time of day, and within-scene variability at the level of individual training samples. We verify the method by demonstrating its superiority to stratified random sampling in the challenging task of adapting a pre-trained model to a new image and spatial domain for country-scale building extraction. Using a pair of hand-labeled training sets comprising 1,987 sample image chips, a total of 496,000,000 individually labeled pixels, we show, across three distinct model architectures, an increase in accuracy, as measured by F1-score, of 2.2–4.2%.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Longitudinal seroprevalence of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus in Southern Uganda

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is a tick-borne disease endemic to many regions of Africa, the Middle East, Southeast Asia and the Balkans. Caused by the CCHF virus (CCHFV), CCHF has been a recognized cause of illness in Uganda since the 1950s and recently, more intensive surveillance suggests CCHFV is widely endemic within the country. Most surveillance has been focused on the Ugandan cattle corridor due to the risk of CCHFV exposure associated with livestock practices. Here we evaluated the seroprevalence of CCHFV in several Southern Ugandan communities outside the cattle corridor combined with longitudinal sample sets to measure the immune response to CCHFV for up to a decade. Interestingly, across three community types, agrarian, trading and fishing, we detected CCHFV seroprevalence in all three but found the highest seroprevalence in fishing communities. We also measured consistent CCHFV-specific antibody responses for up to a decade. Our findings support the conclusion that CCHFV is widely endemic in Uganda and highlight that additional communities may be at risk for CCHFV exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The ASHRAE Great Energy Predictor III competition: Overview and results

In late 2019, ASHRAE hosted the Great Energy Predictor III (GEPIII) machine learning competition on the Kaggle platform. This launch marked the third energy prediction competition from ASHRAE and the first since the mid-1990s. In this updated version, the competitors were provided with over 20 million points of training data from 2,380 energy meters collected for 1,448 buildings from 16 sources. This competition’s overall objective was to find the most accurate modeling solutions for the prediction of over 41 million private and public test data points. Furthermore, the competition had 4,370 participants, split across 3,614 teams from 94 countries who submitted 39,403 predictions. In addition to the top five winning workflows, the competitors publicly shared 415 reproducible online machine learning workflow examples (notebooks), including over 40 additional, full solutions. This paper gives a high-level overview of the competition preparation and dataset, competitors and their discussions, machine learning workflows and models generated, winners and their submissions, discussion of lessons learned, and competition outputs and next steps. The most popular and accurate machine learning workflows used large ensembles of mostly gradient boosting tree models, such as LightGBM. Similar to the first predictor competition, preprocessing of the data sets emerged as a key differentiator.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The 2022 Plasma Roadmap: low temperature plasma science and technology

Abstract The 2022 Roadmap is the next update in the series of Plasma Roadmaps published by Journal of Physics D with the intent to identify important outstanding challenges in the field of low-temperature plasma (LTP) physics and technology. The format of the Roadmap is the same as the previous Roadmaps representing the visions of 41 leading experts representing 21 countries and five continents in the various sub-fields of LTP science and technology. In recognition of the evolution in the field, several new topics have been introduced or given more prominence. These new topics and emphasis highlight increased interests in plasma-enabled additive manufacturing, soft materials, electrification of chemical conversions, plasma propulsion, extreme plasma regimes, plasmas in hypersonics, data-driven plasma science and technology and the contribution of LTP to combat COVID-19. In the last few decades, LTP science and technology has made a tremendously positive impact on our society. It is our hope that this roadmap will help continue this excellent track record over the next 5–10 years.

plasma diagnostics↗

Special Issue on the 22nd International Spherical Torus Workshop, 21–24 October 2024

This Special Issue contains papers resulting from research presented at the 22nd International Spherical Torus Workshop (ISTW), which was held during 21–24 October 2024, in Oxford, UK. The objectives of this workshop were to contribute to advancing the understanding of spherical tori (ST) configurations and to enhance their potential for fusion power applications. The scope of the meeting covers the full range of research activities on STs and aims to provide a forum for discussion and collaboration enhancement. The ISTW is organized by the International Energy Agency Technology Collaboration Programme on ST [1], and the 22nd was the latest in a series that started in 1994, but due to the global pandemic it had not been held in person for 5 years. With 15 thirty-minute overview presentations, 33 twenty-minute presentations, 32 posters and 93 total attendees, the 22nd ISTW was, to our knowledge, the largest to date. Representatives attended from at least 9 countries, representing at least 24 institutions, and presenting results from at least 18 existing or planned devices. Furthermore, this demonstrates the current broad interest in STs as fusion research devices and as candidates for future fusion pilot plants. Following on this momentum, the 23rd ISTW is planned to be held in Seville, Spain in late 2026.

Berkery, John W. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laborat↗

Conference Report on the 7th International Symposium on Liquid metals Applications for fusion (ISLA-7)

Supported by the world magnetic fusion research community, a series of International Symposia on Liquid metals Applications for fusion (ISLA) have been held biannually since 2010. The 7th edition (ISLA-7) was held for the period from 12 December through 16 December 2022, at Chubu University located in Kasugai, Aichi, Japan. For the first time in the history of this series of symposia, ISLA-7 was held in a hybrid fashion, due to the COVID-19 situation. The total number of the participants was 60, 34 out of whom attended the symposium in person, and the rest participated online. As to the presentation statistics, 29 papers were presented in person, whereas 21 presentations were delivered online but real-time by the presenters in China, Spain, the UK, and the USA. Both of the presentations delivered in person and online were recorded, and the video has been shared by all participants. These participants represent 11 countries: China, Czech, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Netherlands, Russia, Thailand, the UK, and the USA. All these numbers are among the largest in this series of symposia. Covered by these presentations are; in session-2, program overviews and liquid metal research review; in session-3, liquid metal flows, and MHD issues; in session-4, liquid metal facilities; in sessions-5 and 6, liquid metal experiments and modeling; in session-7, divertor physics and heat flux mitigation; in session-8, plasma and liquid metals interactions; in session-9 liquid metal plasma-facing components, erosion, and wettability. In addition, there were an opening session whereby several opening addresses were delivered and also a closing session where all technical session summaries were presented by the respective session chairs.

divertor↗

Conference Report on the 8th International Symposium on Liquid Metals Applications for Fusion (ISLA-8)

The International Symposium on Liquid Metals Applications for Fusion (ISLA) aims to assemble scientists and engineers engaged in research on lithium and liquid metal applications for fusion devices, facilitating discussions on recent advancements and challenges in an open forum to support the development of viable fusion reactors. The 8th International Symposium on Liquid Metals Applications for Fusion (ISLA-8) was organized by the Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, from 8 to 12 September 2024, in Hefei, China. The symposium was attended by over 70 participants, marking one of the highest attendance figures in the series. A total of 68 presentations were delivered, including 59 presented on-site, while the remainder were conducted online. The participants represented 10 countries, namely China, Japan, the Netherlands, Russia, the USA, the Czech Republic, Italy, Thailand, Spain, and Germany. The symposium covered 10 topics, structured into 13 sessions. Additionally, an opening session provided an overview of the current symposium, while a closing session summarized reports from each session chair.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Flexible visualization of a 3rd party Intrusion Prevention (Security) tool: A use case with the ELK stack

A difficult aspect of cyber security is the ability to achieve automated real time intrusion prevention across various sets of systems. To this extent, several companies are offering comprehensive solutions that leverage an "accuracy of scale" and moving much of the intelligence and detection on the Cloud, relying on an ever-growing set of data and analytics to increase decision accuracy. Often, they provide tools to visualize the decision workflows in attack prevention (as well as tune the algorithm) but those solutions are not always practical as companies see the problem as "global" that is, from a unified Cyber-security standpoint. However, a key to a successful Cyber-security program is transparency and trust: from an experimental team viewpoint, this specifically means having the ability to immediately see what and from where, who has been blocked and being able to inform the community in case of a revoked access without the need for filing a "ticket" (that may eventually be answered) – in other words, rapid response to their user-base is essential but solutions targeting "sub-groups" in an organization are not often available. We have come up with a versatile solution leveraging the ELK stack (Elasticsearch, Logstash, & Kibana) and an IPS (Intrusion Prevention System) based WAF (Web Application Firewall) from Signal Sciences. Signal Science allows the streaming of detailed logs in a Logstash format suitable for custom solutions for visualization. By combining these two tools, we have strengthened our security posture and enabled individual experiments to monitor their own traffic. Specifically, the IPS WAF provides unique data such as country of origin, protocol, response code, source IP, and paths accessed. In this contribution, we will show how we engineered a visualization solution so experiment groups could access a dashboard with predefined graphs but also, where they can create individual customizable dashboards used to display blocked traffic and troubleshoot latency issues. We will discuss the details and procedures for developing and configuring these tools and how it benefits cyber security postures across our scientific based environment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated energy-water-land nexus planning to guide national policy: an example from Uruguay

Despite broad consensus on the benefits of a nexus approach to multi-sector planning, actual implementation in government and other decision-making institutions is still rare. This study presents an approach to conducting integrated energy-water-land (EWL) planning, using Uruguay as an example. This stakeholder-driven study focuses on assessing the EWL nexus implications of actual planned policies aimed at strengthening three of Uruguay's key exports (beef, soy, and rice), which account for more than 40% of total national export revenue. Five scenarios are analyzed in the study: a reference scenario, a climate impacts scenario, and three policy scenarios. The three policy scenarios include measures such as increasing the intensity of beef production while simultaneously decreasing emissions, increasing irrigated soybean production, and improving rice yields. This study supplements previous sector-specific planning efforts in Uruguay by conducting the first stakeholder-driven integrated multi-sector assessment of planned policies in Uruguay using a suite of integrated modeling tools. Key insights from the study are: as compared to a reference scenario, improving beef productivity could lead to cropland expansion (+30%) and significant indirect increases in water requirements (+20%); improving rice yields could lead to increases in total emissions (+3%), which may partially offset emissions reductions from other policies; expanding irrigated soy could have the least EWL impacts amongst the policies studied; and climate-driven changes could have significantly less impact on EWL systems as compared to human actions. The generalizable insights derived from this analysis are readily applicable to other countries facing similar multi-sector planning challenges. In particular, the study's results reinforce the fact that policies often have multi-sector consequences, and thus policies can impact one another's efficacy. Thus, policy design and implementation can benefit from coordination across sectors and decision-making institutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide

Formulation of targets and establishing which factors in different contexts will achieve these targets are critical to successful decarbonization of the building sector. To contribute to this, we have performed an evidence map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings (ZLECB) worldwide, including a list and classification of documents in an on-line geographical map, a description of gaps, and a narrative review of the knowledge gluts. We have retrieved 1219 scientific documents from Scopus, extracted metadata from 274 documents, and identified 117 roadmaps, policies or plans from 27 countries worldwide. We find that there is a coverage bias towards more developed regions. The identified scientific studies are mostly recommendations to policy makers, different types of case studies, and demonstration projects. The geographical inequalities found in the coverage of the scientific literature are even more extreme in the coverage of the roadmaps. These underexplored world regions represent an area for further investigation and increased research/policy attention. Our review of the more substantial amount of literature and roadmaps for developed regions shows differences in target metrics and enforcement mechanisms but that all regions dedicate some efforts at national and local levels. Roadmaps generally focus more on new and public buildings than existing buildings, despite the fact that the latter are naturally larger in number and total floor area, and perform less energy efficiently. A combination of efficiency, technical upgrades, and renewable generation is generally proposed in the roadmaps, with behavioral measures only reflected in the use of information and communication technologies, and minimal focus being placed on lifecycle perspectives. We conclude that insufficient progress is being made in the implementation of ZLECB. More work is needed to couple the existing climate goals, with realistic, enforceable policies to make the carbon savings a reality for different contexts and stakeholders worldwide.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

The environmental footprint of data centers in the United States

Much of the world's data are stored, managed, and distributed by data centers. Data centers require a tremendous amount of energy to operate, accounting for around 1.8% of electricity use in the United States. Large amounts of water are also required to operate data centers, both directly for liquid cooling and indirectly to produce electricity. For the first time, we calculate spatially-detailed carbon and water footprints of data centers operating within the United States, which is home to around one-quarter of all data center servers globally. Our bottom-up approach reveals one-fifth of data center servers direct water footprint comes from moderately to highly water stressed watersheds, while nearly half of servers are fully or partially powered by power plants located within water stressed regions. Approximately 0.5% of total US greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to data centers. We investigate tradeoffs and synergies between data center's water and energy utilization by strategically locating data centers in areas of the country that will minimize one or more environmental footprints. Our study quantifies the environmental implications behind our data creation and storage and shows a path to decrease the environmental footprint of our increasing digital footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation of hydropower at subcontinental to global scales: a state-of-the-art review

Abstract Hydroelectric power is playing a new and often expanded role in the world’s major power grids, offering low carbon generating capacity in industrializing, dam-building economies while providing reserve and flexibility to co-manage fledgling wind and solar resources in high income countries. Driven by river flows, conventional hydropower is exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate, motivating drought and climate change hydropower impact studies at large spatial scales. Here we review methods of climate-driven hydropower simulation at large spatial scales, specifically multi-basin regions to global. We identify four types of approach based on complexity of tools and richness of data applied to the problem. Since the earliest attempts to model climate-driven hydropower at continental scale almost two decades ago, the field has transitioned from one of scientific curiosity to practical application, with studies increasingly motivated by the need to inform power grid expansion planning and operation. As the hydrological and water management models used in large-scale hydropower studies become more sophisticated, new opportunities will emerge to study the impacts of changing hydropower on power system reliability and performance at large power grid scale. To grasp these opportunities, the water resources community must continue to enhance data and models for representing river flows and anthropogenic water use and management at subcontinental to global scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Future PM 2.5 emissions from metal production to meet renewable energy demand

A shift from fossil fuel to renewable energy is crucial in limiting global temperature increase to 2 °C above preindustrial levels. However, renewable energy technologies, solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and electric vehicles are metal-intensive, and the mining and smelting processes to obtain the needed metals are emission-intensive. We estimate the future PM 2.5 emissions from mining and smelting to meet the metal demand of renewable energy technologies in two climate pathways to be 0.3–0.6 Tg yr -1 in the 2020–2050 period, which are projected to contribute 10%–30% of total anthropogenic primary PM 2.5 combustion emissions in many countries. The concentration of mineral reserves in a few regions means the impacts are also regionally concentrated. Rapid decarbonization could lead to a faster reduction of overall anthropogenic PM 2.5 emissions but also could create more unevenness in the distributions of emissions relative to where demand occurs. Options to reduce metal-related PM 2.5 emissions by over 90% exist and are well understood; introducing policy requiring their installation could avoid emission hotspots.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating air quality and health considerations into power sector decarbonization strategies

Climate change and public health are two interconnected societal challenges. Curbing fossil-based electricity generation reduces the emissions of both CO 2 and air pollutants, which brings tangible health benefits from improved air quality. The potential health benefits from decarbonizing the grid are enormous, immediate, and widespread. From renewable portfolio standards to carbon market, the health co-benefits from clean electricity policies often outweigh their policy costs. As climate action goes local, framing decarbonization around health benefits also makes it more personally relevant and economically attractive. Yet, to date, the health impacts have largely been viewed as ancillary benefits from decarbonization, rather than as a core consideration when energy strategies are formed, assessed and implemented. When strategic choices are made about retiring old infrastructure and building new ones, bringing public health to the center of the discussion can generate greater health benefits with more equitable distribution. Here we identify concrete ways to incorporate air quality and health considerations into power sector decarbonization strategies. We draw insights mainly from empirical and modeling evidence for the United States. These insights are generally applicable and could guide health-oriented decarbonization efforts in other countries as well.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Long-term basin-scale hydropower expansion under alternative scenarios in a global multisector model

Abstract Hydropower is an important source of renewable, low-carbon energy. Global and regional energy systems, including hydropower, may evolve in a variety of ways under different scenarios. Representation of hydropower in global multisector models is often simplified at the country or regional level. Some models assume a fixed hydropower supply, which is not affected by economic drivers or competition with other electricity generation sources. Here, we implement an endogenous model of hydropower expansion in the Global Change Analysis Model, including a representation of hydropower potential at the river basin level to project future hydropower production across river basins and explore hydropower’s role in evolving energy systems both regionally and globally, under alternative scenarios. Each scenario utilizes the new endogenous hydropower implementation but makes different assumptions about future low-carbon transitions, technology costs, and energy demand. Our study suggests there is ample potential for hydropower to expand in the future to help meet growing demand for electricity driven by socioeconomic growth, electrification of end-use sectors, or other factors. However, hydropower expansion will be constrained by resource availability, resource location, and cost in ways that limit its growth relative to other technologies. As a result, all scenarios show a generally decreasing share of hydroelectricity over total electricity generation at the global level. Hydropower expansion varies across regions, and across basins within regions, due to differences in resource potential, cost, current utilization, and other factors. In sum, our scenarios entail hydropower generation growth between 36% and 119% in 2050, compared to 2015, globally.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Process-based climate change assessment for European winds using EURO-CORDEX and global models

Wind energy is an important pillar of decarbonization strategies and potentially vulnerable to climate change. Existing wind climate change assessments rely on climate models but a systematic investigation of the global-to-regional climate modeling chain is missing. In this study, I highlight key limitations, namely (a) the differing representation of land use change in global and regional climate models which compromises comparability, and (b) the consistency of large-scale features along the global-to-regional climate modeling chain. To this end, I analyze the large European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) ensemble (rcp85: N = 49; rcp45: N= 18; rcp26: N = 22) along with the driving global models (rcp85: N = 7; rcp45: N = 5; rcp26: N = 7), finding evidence that climate change reduces mean wind speeds by up to -0.8 ms -1 (offshore) and -0.3 ms -1 (onshore). I provide physical explanations for these changes by identifying two key drivers. First, onshore wind speeds drop in the driving global models in regions and scenarios with strong land use change but show no drop in EURO-CORDEX where land use is held constant. Second, offshore wind reductions follow decreases in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient remarkably well with correlations reaching around 0.9 in resource-rich European countries like Ireland, the United Kingdom and Norway, implying that arctic amplification is a severe risk for European offshore wind energy. My results suggest that earlier conclusions of negligible climate change impacts on wind energy might be premature if either land use changes strongly or polar amplification is at or above the range sampled in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diverging climate response of corn yield and carbon use efficiency across the U.S.

Abstract In this paper, we developed an open-source package to analyze the overall trend and responses of both carbon use efficiency (CUE) and corn yield to climate factors for the contiguous United States. Our algorithm enables automatic retrieval of remote sensing data through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agricultural production data at the county level through application programming interface (API). Firstly, we integrated satellite products of net primary productivity and gross primary productivity based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, and climatic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Secondly, we calculated CUE and commonly used climate metrics. Thirdly, we investigated the spatial heterogeneity of these variables. We applied a random forest algorithm to identify the key climate drivers of CUE and crop yield, and estimated the responses of CUE and yield to climate variability using the spatial moving window regression across the U.S. Our results show that growing degree days (GDD) has the highest predictive power for both CUE and yield, while extreme degree days (EDD) is the least important explanatory variable. Moreover, we observed that in most areas of the U.S., yield increases or stays the same with higher GDD and precipitation. However, CUE decreases with higher GDD in the north and shows more mixed and fragmented interactions in the south. Notably, there are some exceptions where yield is negatively correlated with precipitation in the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. As global warming continues, we anticipate a decrease in CUE throughout the vast northern part of the country, despite the possibility of yield remaining stable or increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗