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NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station Data Collection for Disaster Response

Natural disasters - including such events as tropical storms, earthquakes, floods, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires -effect hundreds of millions of people worldwide, and also cause billions of dollars (USD) in damage to the global economy. Remotely sensed data acquired by orbital sensor systems has emerged as a vital tool to identify the extent of damage resulting from a natural disaster, as well as providing near-real time mapping support to response efforts on the ground and humanitarian aid efforts. The International Space Station (ISS) is a unique terrestrial remote sensing platform for acquiring disaster response imagery. Unlike automated remote-sensing platforms it has a human crew; is equipped with both internal and externally-mounted remote sensing instruments; and has an inclined, low-Earth orbit that provides variable views and lighting (day and night) over 95 percent of the inhabited surface of the Earth. As such, it provides a useful complement to free-flyer based, sun-synchronous sensor systems in higher altitude polar orbits. While several nations have well-developed terrestrial remote sensing programs and assets for data collection, many developing nations do not have ready access to such resources. The International Charter, Space and Major Disasters (also known as the "International Disaster Charter", or IDC; http://www.disasterscharter.org/home) addresses this disparity. It is an agreement between agencies of several countries to provide - on a best-effort basis - remotely sensed data of natural disasters to requesting countries in support of disaster response. The lead US agency for interaction with the IDC is the United States Geological Survey (USGS); when an IDC request or "activation" is received, the USGS notifies the science teams for NASA instruments with targeting information for data collection. In the case of the ISS, the Earth Sciences and Remote Sensing (ESRS) Unit, part of the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science Directorate and supporting the ISS Program Science Office at NASA's Johnson Space Center, receives notification from the USGS and coordinates targeting and data collection with the NASA ISS sensor teams. If data is collected, it is passed back to the USGS for posting on their Hazards Data Distribution System and made available for download. The ISS International Partners (CSA, ESA, JAXA, Roscosmos/Energia) have their own procedures for independently supporting IDC activations using their assets on ISS, and there is currently no joint coordination with NASA ISS sensor teams. Following completion of ISS assembly, NASA remote sensing assets began collecting IDC response data in May 2012. The initial NASA ISS sensor systems available to respond to IDC activations included the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), an internal multispectral visible-near infrared wavelength system mounted in the Window Observational Research Facility, or WORF; the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) Facility, where the crew collects imagery through Station windows using off-the-shelf handheld digital visible-wavelength cameras; and the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Oceans (HICO), a visible to near-infrared system mounted externally on the Japan Experiment Module Exposed Facility. The ISSAC completed its primary mission and was removed from the WORF in January 2013. It was replaced by the very high resolution ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System (ISERV) Pathfinder, a visible-wavelength digital camera, telescope, and pointing system. Since the start of IDC response by NASA sensors on the ISS in May 2012 and as of this report, there have been eighty IDC activations; NASA sensor systems have collected data for twenty-three of these events. Of the twenty-three successful data collections, five involved 2 or more ISS sensor systems responding to the same event. Data has also been collected by International Partners in response to natural disasters, most notably JAXA and Roscosmos/Energia through the Urugan program. Data collected in response to IDC activations is delivered by the ISS sensor teams to the ESRS for quality review and transfer to the USGS, where it is ingested into the Hazards Data Distribution System, or HDDS (https://hdds.usgs.gov/hdds2/; figure 1). This system allows the local agencies that issued the IDC activation request to review and download data. The data is then used to develop secondary products useful for humanitarian response such as flood maps. As of this report, approximately 1000 images collected by NASA ISS sensor systems have been downloaded from the HDDS, indicating that the ISS has assumed a valuable role in disaster response efforts. The ISS is also a unique platform in that it will have multiple users over its lifetime, and that no single remote sensing system has a permanent internal or external berth. This scheduled turnover provides for development of new remote sensing capabilities relevant to disaster response -as well as both research and applied science-and represents a significant contribution to continuance and enhancement of the NASA mission to investigate changes on our home planet.

Stefanov, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗
NASA NTRS2014

Satellite Observed Widespread Decline in Mongolian Grasslands Largely Due to Overgrazing

The Mongolian Steppe is one of the largest remaining grassland ecosystems. Recent studies have reported widespread decline of vegetation across the steppe and about 70 percent of this ecosystem is now considered degraded. Among the scientific community there has been an active debate about whether the observed degradation is related to climate, or overgrazing, or both. Here, we employ a new atmospheric correction and cloud screening algorithm (MAIAC) to investigate trends in satellite observed vegetation phenology. We relate these trends to changes in climate and domestic animal populations. A series of harmonic functions is fitted to MODIS observed phenological curves to quantify seasonal and inter-annual changes in vegetation. Our results show a widespread decline (of about 12 percent on average) in MODIS observed NDVI across the country but particularly in the transition zone between grassland and the Gobi desert, where recent decline was as much as 40 percent below the 2002 mean NDVI. While we found considerable regional differences in the causes of landscape degradation, about 80 percent of the decline in NDVI could be attributed to increase in livestock. Changes in precipitation were able to explain about 30 percent of degradation across the country as a whole but up to 50 percent in areas with denser vegetation cover (p0.05). Temperature changes, while significant, played only a minor role (r20.10, p0.05). Our results suggest that the cumulative effect of overgrazing is a primary contributor to the degradation of the Mongolian steppe and is at least partially responsible for desertification reported in previous studies.

Mongolia↗
NASA NTRS2014

SERVIR Presentation for the Hyperwall at the ESRI International Users Conference

From space, we can view our planet in new ways. As a joint initiative of NASA and USAID working in partnership with leading regional organizations, SERVIR connects space to village by helping people in developing countries use that view to gain knowledge and insights about their environments. We teach regional decision-makers to use Earth observation satellite data, Geographic Information Systems, and predictive models for addressing issues such as water and land use, natural disasters, agricultural problems, biodiversity conservation, and more to improve the lives, livelihoods, safety, and future of the people in their countries.

Irwin, Dan↗
NASA NTRS2014

Peru Water Resources: Integrating NASA Earth Observations into Water Resource Planning and Management in Perus La Libertad Region

Developing countries often struggle with providing water security and sanitation services to their populations. An important aspect of improving security and sanitation is developing a comprehensive understanding of the country's water budget. Water For People, a non-profit organization dedicated to providing clean drinking water, is working with the Peruvian government to develop a water budget for the La Libertad region of Peru which includes the creation of an extensive watershed management plan. Currently, the data archive of the necessary variables to create the water management plan is extremely limited. Implementing NASA Earth observations has bolstered the dataset being used by Water For People, and the METRIC (Mapping EvapoTranspiration at High Resolution and Internalized Calibration) model has allowed for the estimation of the evapotranspiration values for the region. Landsat 8 imagery and the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) sensor onboard Terra were used to derive the land cover information, and were used in conjunction with local weather data of Cascas from Peru's National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (SENAMHI). Python was used to combine input variables and METRIC model calculations to approximate the evapotranspiration values for the Ochape sub-basin of the Chicama River watershed. Once calculated, the evapotranspiration values and methodology were shared Water For People to help supplement their decision support tools in the La Libertad region of Peru and potentially apply the methodology in other areas of need.

Padgett-Vasquez, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Role of Temperature and Humidity on Seasonal Influenza in Tropical Areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008-2013

Background: The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. Method/ Findings: Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07-1.31) and 1.32 (1.08-1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08-1.93) and 1.97 (1.34-2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6-0.86) and 0.79 (0.69-0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7-0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05-1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influenza activity in Panama and west-central El Salvador departments (correlation coefficients: 0.5-0.9). Conclusions/Significance: The findings highlighted the association between influenza activity and specific humidity in these 3 tropical countries. Positive association with humidity was found in El Salvador and Panama. Negative association was found in the more subtropical Guatemala, similar to temperate regions. Of all the study locations, Guatemala had annual mean temperature and specific humidity that were lower than the others.

Central America↗
NASA NTRS2014

Environmental Risk Factors and Child Nutritional Status and Survival in a Context of Climate Variability and Change

Much of the population in the developing world resides in rural areas, is dependent on local agriculture for survival, and thus directly subject to increasingly volatile and variable climatic patterns. Poverty limits options for adaptation to unpredictable weather and resultant food insecurity; these concerns are particularly salient in an era of climate change, which threatens to roll back years of development gains. Examining the association between the growing environment and child survival and nutrition is important in this context. Using NASA's satellite remote sensing data with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from four West African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Benin), we assess the association between a climate-related environmental variable (vegetation index - NDVI) and child survival and nutrition. NDVI had a positive association with child survival and nutrition in countries with a wide distribution of NDVI values. NDVI was more likely to be positively associated with wasting rather than stunting. We find that environmental factors can be important for child survival and nutrition outcomes in specific contexts. Additional research is needed to further explore the ways NDVI can be used to inform our understanding of the environment's impact on child survival and nutrition.

Environment↗
NASA NTRS2014

Environmental and Socio-Demographic Determinants of Dengue Fever in Colombo City, Sri Lanka

Dengue fever has increased exponentially in Sri Lanka, from 24.4 cases per 100,000 in 2003 to 165.3 per 100,000 population in 2013. Although early warning systems using predictor models have been previously developed in other settings, it is important to develop such models in each local setting. Further, the ability of these models to be applicable at smaller geographic units will enhance current vector control and disease surveillance measures. The aim of this paper was to identify environmental and socio-economic status (SES) risk factors that may predict dengue fever at the Gram Niladhari Divisions (GND) level (smallest administrative unit) in Colombo city, Sri Lanka. These factors included landcover classes, amount of vegetation, population density, water access and neighborhood SES as determined by roof type. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) was used to develop the prediction model. A total 55 GND units covering an area of 37 sq km were investigated. We found that GND units with decreased vegetation, higher built-up area, higher population density and poor access to tap-water supply were associated with high risk of dengue; the pertinent GND units were concentrated in the center of the city. This is the first study in Sri Lanka to include both environmental and socio-demographic factors in prediction models for dengue fever. The methodology may be useful in enhancing ongoing dengue fever control measures in the country, and to be extended to other countries in the region that have an increasing incidence of dengue fever.

Tipre, Meghan↗
NASA NTRS2014

The International Space Station: A Unique Platform for Remote Sensing of Natural Disasters

Assembly of the International Space Station (ISS) was completed in 2012, and the station is now fully operational as a platform for remote sensing instruments tasked with collecting scientific data about the Earth system. Remote sensing systems are mounted inside the ISS, primarily in the U.S. Destiny Module's Window Observational Research Facility (WORF), or are located on the outside of the ISS on any of several attachment points. While NASA and other space agencies have had remote sensing systems orbiting Earth and collecting publicly available data since the early 1970s, these sensors are carried onboard free-flying, unmanned satellites. These satellites are traditionally placed into Sun-synchronous polar orbits that allow imaging of the entire surface of the Earth to be repeated with approximately the same Sun illumination (typically local solar noon) over specific areas, with set revisit times that allow uniform data to be taken over long time periods and enable straightforward analysis of change over time. In contrast, the ISS has an inclined, Sun-asynchronous orbit (the solar illumination for data collections over any location changes as the orbit precesses) that carries it over locations on the Earth between approximately 52degnorth and 52deg south latitudes (figure 1). The ISS is also unique among NASA orbital platforms in that it has a human crew. The presence of a crew provides options not available to robotic sensors and platforms, such as the ability to collect unscheduled data of an unfolding event using handheld digital cameras as part of the Crew Earth Observations (CEO) facility and on-the-fly assessment of environmental conditions, such as cloud cover, to determine whether conditions are favorable for data collection. The crew can also swap out internal sensor systems installed in the WORF as needed. The ISS orbit covers more than 90 percent of the inhabited surface of the Earth, allowing the ISS to pass over the same ground locations at different times of the day and night. This is important for two reasons: 1) certain surface processes (i.e., development of coastal fog banks) occur at times other than local solar noon, making it difficult to collect relevant data from traditional satellite platforms, and 2) it provides opportunities for the ISS to collect data for short-duration events, such as natural disasters, that polar-orbiting satellites may miss due to their orbital dynamics - in essence, the ISS can be "in the right place at the right time" to collect data. An immediate application of ISS remote sensing data collection is that the data can be used to provide information for humanitarian aid after a natural disaster. This activity contributes directly to the station's Benefits to Humanity mission. The International Charter, Space and Major Disasters (also known as the International Disaster Charter, or IDC) is an agreement between agencies of several countries to provide - on a best-effort basis - remotely sensed data related to natural disasters to requesting countries in support of disaster response. In the United States, the lead agency for interaction with the IDC is the United States Geological Survey (USGS); when an IDC request, or activation, is received, the USGS notifies the science teams for NASA instruments with targeting information for data collection. In the case of the ISS, Earth scientists in the JSC ARES Directorate, in association with the ISS Program Science Office, coordinate targeting and data collection with the USGS. If data is collected, it is passed back to the USGS for posting on its Hazards Data Distribution System and made available for download. The ISS was added to the USGS's list of NASA remote sensing assets that could respond to IDC activations in May 2012. Initially, the NASA ISS sensor systems available to respond to IDC activations included the ISS Agricultural Camera (ISSAC), an internal multispectral visible-near infrared wavelength system mounted in the WORF; CEO, a project that collects imagery through the ISS windows using off-the-shelf handheld digital visible-wavelength cameras; and the Hyperspectral Imager for the Coastal Oceans (HICO), a visible to near-infrared system mounted externally on the Japanese Experiment Module - Exposed Facility. Since May 2012, there have been 37 IDC activations; ISS sensor systems have collected data for 10 of these events.

Stefanov, William L.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Integrated Assessments of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: An Overview of AgMIP Regional Research in South Asia

South Asia encompasses a wide and highly varied geographic region, and includes climate zones ranging from the mountainous Himalayan territory to the tropical lowland and coastal zones along alluvial floodplains. The region's climate is dominated by a monsoonal circulation that heralds the arrival of seasonal rainfall, upon which much of the regional agriculture relies. The spatial and temporal distribution of this rainfall is, however, not uniform over the region. Northern South Asia, central India, and the west coast receive much of their rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, between June and September. These rains partly result from the moisture transport accompanying the monsoonal winds, which move in the southwesterly direction from the equatorial Indian Ocean. Regions further south, such as south/southeast India and Sri Lanka, may receive rains from both the southwest monsoon, and also during the northeast monsoon season between October and December (with northeasterly monsoon wind flow and moisture flux), which results in a bi- or multi-modal rainfall distribution. In addition, rainfall across South Asia displays a large amount of intraseasonal and interannual variability. Interannual variability is influenced by many drivers, both natural (e.g., El Ni-Southern Oscillation; ENSO) and man-made (e.g., rising temperatures due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations), and it is challenging to obtaining accurate time-series of annual rainfall, even amongst various observed data products, which display inconsistencies amongst themselves. These climatic and rainfall variations can further complicate South Asia's agricultural and water management. Agriculture employs at least 65 of the workforce in most South Asian countries, and nearly 80 of South Asia's poor inhabit rural areas. Understanding the response of current agricultural production to climate variability and future climate change is of utmost importance in securing food and livelihoods for South Asia's growing population. In order to assess the future of food and livelihood security across South Asia, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has undertaken integrated climate-crop-economic assessments of the impact of climate change on food security and poverty in South Asia, encompassing Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. AgMIP has funded, on a competitive basis, four South Asian regional research teams (RRTs) and one South Asian coordination team (CT) to undertake climate-crop-economic integrated assessments of food security for many districts in each of these countries, with the goal of characterizing the state of food security and poverty across the region, and projecting how these are subject to change under future climate change conditions.

mountains↗
NASA NTRS2015

NASA Child Fitness Promotion Program in Young Children in South Korea

Childhood obesity is a serious global public health concern (WHO, 2015; Wang Y & Lobstein T, 2006). Low self-esteem and related mental health problems are common in obese children (Strauss RS, 2000) as well as poor academic performance and career development (Gurley-Calvez T, 2010).Westernized dietary habits and sedentary lifestyles are identified as the major risk factors of current alarming rate of obesity along with genetic susceptibility (Popkin BM, 1999). Children in many countries, including South Korea, have become increasingly sedentary due to urbanization changes in their respective societies (Ng SW, et al. 2009, Salmon J et al. 2011). In particular, South Korea had abundant dissemination of mobile technology, such as tablet and smart phone devices. Children have become reliant on mobile devices and are less likely to perform physical activities (Do, et al, 2013). Effective and sustainable intervention programs are needed to fight the global obesity epidemic (IOM, 2012; Wang Y et al, 2013; Wang Y et al, 2015). Previous studies suggested focus on prevention strategies that begin in early childhood, a period when children establish their life habits. (Salmon J et al. 2011). Recent systematic reviews and meta-analysis including ours found that obesity prevention programs for young children have a greater intervention effect (Waters E, et al, 2011; Wang Y et al, 2013; Wang Y et al, 2015). The NASA Mission X: Train Like an Astronaut (MX) program was developed to promote children's exercise and healthy eating with excitement for training like an astronaut (Lloyd C, 2012).At present, the NASA MX Program covered 28 countries, enrolled children through their teachers in school setting (MX report 2014, 2015). This pilot study adapted the NASA MX intervention program for young children in South Korea. We assessed its feasibility and effectiveness in promoting physical activity (PA) in children and in improving parents' perspectives. We also examined the status of PA in young children. More than 80% of five-year-old children go to a Kindergarten or day care center in South Korea (MH Suh et al, 2013).Thus, reaching young children through child care and education settings could be a good approach for early childhood obesity prevention.

Min, Jungwon↗
NASA NTRS1955

Fifty Years of Boundary-Layer Theory and Experiment

The year 1954 marked the 50th anniversary of the Prandtl boundary-layer theory from which we may date the beginning of man's understanding of the dynamics of real fluids. A backward look at this aspect of the history of the last 50 years may be instructive. This paper (1) attempts to compress the events of those 50 years into a few thousand words, to tell in this brief space the interesting story of the development of a new concept, its slow acceptance and growth, its spread from group to group within its country of origin, and its diffusion to other countries of the world. The original brief paper of Prandtl (2) was presented at the Third International Mathematical Congress at Heidelberg in 1904 and published in the following year. It was an attempt to explain the d'Alembert paradox, namely, that the neglect of the small friction of air in the theory resulted in the prediction of zero resistance to motion. Prandtl set himself the task of computing the motion of a fluid of small friction, so small that its effect could be neglected everywhere except where large velocity differences were present or a cumulative effect of friction occurred This led to the concept of boundary layer, or transition layer, near the wall of a body immersed in a fluid stream in which the velocity rises from zero to the free-stream value. It is interesting that Prandtl used the term Grenzsehicht (boundary layer) only once and the term Ubergangsschicht (transition layer) seven times in the brief article. Later writers also used Reibungsschicht (friction layer), but most writers today use Grenzschicht (boundary layer).

Dryden, Hugh L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Detecting Change in Urban Areas at Continental Scales with MODIS Data

Urbanization is one of the most important components of global environmental change, yet most of what we know about urban areas is at the local scale. Remote sensing of urban expansion across large areas provides information on the spatial and temporal patterns of growth that are essential for understanding differences in socioeconomic and political factors that spur different forms of development, as well the social, environmental, and climatic impacts that result. However, mapping urban expansion globally is challenging: urban areas have a small footprint compared to other land cover types, their features are small, they are heterogeneous in both material composition and configuration, and the form and rates of new development are often highly variable across locations. Here we demonstrate a methodology for monitoring urban land expansion at continental to global scales using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The new method focuses on resolving the spectral and temporal ambiguities between urban/non-urban land and stable/changed areas by: (1) spatially constraining the study extent to known locations of urban land; (2) integrating multitemporal data from multiple satellite data sources to classify c. 2010 urban extent; and (3) mapping newly built areas (2000-2010) within the 2010 urban land extent using a multi-temporal composite change detection approach based on MODIS 250 m annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We test the method in 15 countries in East-Southeast Asia experiencing different rates and manifestations of urban expansion. A two-tiered accuracy assessment shows that the approach characterizes urban change across a variety of socioeconomic/political and ecological/climatic conditions with good accuracy (70-91% overall accuracy by country, 69-89% by biome). The 250 m EVI data not only improve the classification results, but are capable of distinguishing between change and no-change areas in urban areas. Over 80% of the error in the change detection can be related to definitional issues or error propagation, rather than algorithm error. As such, these methods hold great potential for routine monitoring of urban change, as well as for providing a consistent and up-to-date dataset on urban extent and expansion for a rapidly evolving region.

Urban areas↗
NASA NTRS2016

Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply Shocks

While a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.

supply↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

wheat↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Ecosystem Service Provision Under Climate Change to Support Conservation and Development Planning in Myanmar

Inclusion of ecosystem services (ES) information into national-scale development and climate adaptation planning has yet to become common practice, despite demand from decision makers. Identifying where ES originate and to whom the benefits flowunder current and future climate conditionsis especially critical in rapidly developing countries, where the risk of ES loss is high. Here, using Myanmar as a case study, we assess where and how ecosystems provide key benefits to the countrys people and infrastructure. We model the supply of and demand for sediment retention, dry-season baseflows, flood risk reduction and coastal storm protection from multiple beneficiaries. We find that locations currently providing the greatest amount of services are likely to remain important under the range of climate conditions considered, demonstrating their importance in planning for climate resilience. Overlap between priority areas for ES provision and biodiversity conservation is higher than expected by chance overall, but the areas important for multiple ES are underrepresented in currently designated protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results are contributing to development planning in Myanmar, and our approach could be extended to other contexts where there is demand for national-scale natural capital information to shape development plans and policies

Climate change↗